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For decades, the federal government has expected vocationally focused programs in higher education, especially among for-profit colleges, to lead to gainful employment in a profession. In the mid-2010s, the U.S. Department of Education developed gainful employment (GE) regulations that sought to tie a program's federal financial aid eligibility to graduates’ debt-to-earnings ratios. We use a regression discontinuity design to examine whether for-profit programs’ performance on GE was associated with the likelihood of closing the program or college. Although the regulations were repealed before any program lost federal funding, we find that passing GE regulations was associated with a lower likelihood of program and college closures.

Postsecondary institutions’ responses to COVID-19 are a topic of immediate relevance. Emergent research suggests that partisanship was more strongly linked to institutions offering in-person instruction for Fall 2020 than was COVID-19. Using data from the College Crisis Initiative and a multiple group structural equation modeling approach, we tested the relationships between our outcome of interest (in-person instruction in Fall 2020) and state and county sociopolitical features, state and county COVID-19 rates, and state revenue losses. Our full-sample model suggested that County Political Preferences had the strongest association with in-person instruction, followed by Pandemic Severity and State Sociopolitical Features. Because institutional sectors may be uniquely sensitive to these factors, we tested our models separately on 4-year public, 4-year private, and 2-year public and 2-year private institutions. State Sociopolitical Features were significantly related to in-person instruction for 4-year private and 2-year public institutions but were strongest for 4-year public institutions. For 4-year private and 2-year public institutions, County Political Preferences’ effect sizes were 2–3 times stronger than effects from State Sociopolitical Features. Pandemic Severity was significantly, negatively related to in-person instruction for 4-year private and 2-year public institutions–similar in magnitude to State Sociopolitical Features. Our analysis revealed that COVID-19 played a stronger role in determining in-person instruction in Fall 2020 than initial research using less sophisticated methods suggested—and while State Sociopolitical Features may have played a role in the decision, 4-year private and 2-year public institutions were more sensitive to county-level preferences.

This systematic synthesis examines the intended and unintended consequences of performance-based funding (PBF) policies in higher education. Within this synthesis, we focus particularly on evidence from research studies with strong causal inference designs in an effort to understand the impacts of these policies. PBF adoption is generally associated with null or modest positive effects on the intended outcomes of retention and graduation, but there is also compelling evidence that PBF policies lead to unintended outcomes related to restricting access, gaming of the PBF system, and disadvantages for underserved student groups and under-resourced institution types. PBF policies including equity provisions for colleges that enroll or graduate underserved student groups have been found to offset some of these unintended consequences. Based on this synthesis, we offer policy recommendations and directions for future research on PBF policies, including the need to consider variation in policy design and the broader state policy context.

This study draws on a comprehensive performance-based funding (PBF) dataset and up-to-date difference-in-differences econometrics to examine the impacts of specific policy features (e.g., share of institutional revenue at stake and equity metrics) on college access and selectivity. We find suggestive evidence that increases in the share of revenue at stake are associated with decreases in racially minoritized student enrollment. Meanwhile, equity metrics may not be enough to boost enrollment among underserved students. Ultimately, however, our conclusions are limited due to various potential sources of bias, unconvincing pre-trends, and wide confidence intervals. While findings offer limited insight into the impacts of specific design features, they point to limitations of PBF—regardless of design—in expanding access and reducing inequities at 4-year colleges.

We conduct the first long‐term experimental evaluation of a need‐based financial aid program, the privately funded Wisconsin Scholars Grant. Over multiple cohorts, the program failed to increase degree completion and graduate school enrollment up to 10 years after matriculation. The program did reduce time‐to‐degree for some students and modestly increased the number of STEM degrees earned. The lack of robust effects raises important questions about the conditions necessary for financial aid to benefit students.

Objective: An increasing number of states are adopting performance-based funding (PBF) systems for their public colleges, but there are concerns that PBF dissuades colleges from recruiting and enrolling students with a lower likelihood of success. Some states have attempted to address this concern by providing additional funds for successfully serving low-income, underrepresented minority, or adult students, but the effectiveness of these particular provisions has yet to be examined among 2-year colleges. I explore whether these provisions have affected historically underrepresented student enrollments at community colleges. Method: I use generalized difference-in-difference panel regression techniques combined with data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and information from states on their performance funding policies from the 2004-2005 to 2014-2015 academic years to address the research questions. I classified colleges based on whether they had a PBF system with equity provisions, a PBF system without equity provisions, or no PBF in a given year and compared these three groups of institutions. Results: I find little evidence that PBF policies, regardless of their design characteristics, have a relationship with traditionally underrepresented student enrollment levels. Contributions: Although there are concerns that PBF systems induce community colleges to selectively recruit students with a higher probability of success, I find no systemic evidence of that practice. However, as PBF systems become higher stakes and more ingrained in state higher education funding, this finding deserves further study.

Policymakers have been debating the Bennett Hypothesis—whether colleges increase tuition after the federal government increases access to student loans—for decades. Yet most of the prior research has focused on studying small changes to loan limits or Pell Grants for undergraduate students. In this study, I examine whether business schools (the most popular master’s program) and medical schools (one of the most-indebted programs) responded to a large increase in federal student loan limits in 2006 following the creation of the Grad PLUS program by raising tuition or living expenses as well as examining whether student debt burdens also increased. Using two quasi-experimental estimation strategies and program-level data from 2001 to 2016, I find little consistent evidence to support the Bennett Hypothesis in either medical or business schools.

The unprecedented challenges from COVID-19 present many institutions of higher education with liquidity, and even solvency, concerns. In this report, we provide guidance to institutions and policymakers about the short- and medium-term revenue losses that are likely to materialize as a result of the ongoing pandemic and associated disruptions to revenue and expenses. Using historical data on states’ responses to previous economic downturns and contemporaneous measures of the severity of the current economic predicament, we project state and local appropriation reductions that public colleges and universities are likely to experience. We then use these projections in conjunction with measures of the pandemic’s severity at the local level — mobility on campus and in local areas, consumer spending, fall 2020 enrollment, and more — to project likely revenue losses to institutions from appropriations and two other key revenue sources: net tuition revenue and revenue from auxiliary enterprises. We project that losses in state and local appropriations are likely to be about half the magnitude of losses in the Great Recession, or on the order of $17 billion to $30 billion over the period 2020‒2025. However, appropriations represent a relatively small fraction of the cumulative revenue losses from the three main revenue categories, which we estimate to be $70 billion to $115 billion over the next five years. The extent of revenue losses depends crucially on assumptions about the pace of economic recovery. We find that most public colleges, private nonprofit colleges, and rural colleges will experience moderate cumulative losses (no loss, loss 50% of 2019 revenue) among institutions with fewer than 1,000 students, Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), and certain for-profit colleges as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Institutional responses to COVID-19 are a topic of much concern. Emergent research has suggested that politics and polarization was more strongly linked, than was COVID-19, to institutions engaging in-person instruction for Fall 2020. This study used Structural Equation Modeling to test this trend. Based upon political polarization and dependency, we used data from the College Crisis Initiative (C2i), to test how state and county sociopolitical features, state and county COVID-19 rates, and state revenue losses influenced in-person instruction by September 9th, 2020. The accepted overall model, developed using the full sample, suggested that County Sociopolitical Features (r=.13) were the stronger influence on the decision, followed by Pandemic Severity (r=-.10) and State Sociopolitical Features (r=.09). In recognizing that institutional subsectors may be uniquely sensitive to these factors we tested our models using the following subgroups: 4-year public, 4-year private, and 2-year public institutions. State Sociopolitical Features (r=.17) were the only significant influence on 4-year public institutions. Whereas 4-year private and 2-year public institution decisions were influenced by both State- and County-Sociopolitical Features – these features were respectively 2x and 3x stronger than were state features. Finally, Pandemic Severity (r=-.09) only influenced 4-year private institutional decisions to engage in-person instruction but to a weaker degree than both levels of sociopolitical features. Overall, models suggest that COVID-19 was not a consistently strong factor for institutions when deciding in-person instruction and that sociopolitical features were more influential, including for 4-year private institutions – which illustrates a propensity towards remaining in favor with sociopolitical “in-groups.”

Background/Context Public colleges and universities have sought to recruit and enroll more students from outside their home state in an effort to both enhance institutional prestige and generate additional revenue from the higher tuition rates than nonresident students generally pay. A body of research has shown that nonresident students tend to be more economically advantaged and less racially diverse than in-state students and that increases in out-of-state students crowd out lower income and minority state residents from more selective public colleges. Purpose/Research Questions Although research has shown some adverse effects of additional nonresident enrollment, no prior research has examined whether the additional money generated from out-of-state students’ higher tuition rates is used to help make college more affordable for state residents. In this article, I examined whether increased percentages of nonresident students were associated with changes in the sticker or net prices of attendance at four-year public colleges and whether any relationships were different between broad-access and selective public colleges. Research Design I used data on college pricing and nonresident enrollment from the U.S. Department of Education's Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System from the 2000– 01 through 2013–14 academic years from 505 public four-year colleges in this analysis. I used panel regressions with controls for other state-level factors that could have affected nonresident enrollment. In my preferred specifications, I used Arellano–Bond estimators to account for autoregressive processes in the data and used a one-year lag between nonresident enrollment and when prices paid by in-state students were measured. Results and Conclusions There was no systematic relationship between changes in the percentage of nonresident students and the sticker or net prices faced by in-state students. This suggests that although state residents do not appear to be subsidizing an amenities arms race to attract students from other states, the additional tuition revenue coming from nonresident students is not being used to help subsidize in-state students. Future research should investigate how public colleges are using the additional revenue if it is not being used for student financial aid.

More states are using performance-based funding (PBF) systems in an effort to incentivize public colleges to operate more effectively. Responding to concerns about equity, states are also adopting provisions that encourage colleges to serve more students who at risk of not completing college. In this paper, I examine whether PBF policies in general—and more specifically policies that have provisions designed to incentivize colleges to enroll underrepresented students—are associated with the number of lower-income, underrepresented minority, and adult students enrolled at four-year public colleges. Using a generalized difference-in-difference framework, I find little evidence that PBF systems as a whole meaningfully affect underrepresented student enrollment. However, the presence of bonuses for serving at-risk students appears to help mitigate any efforts to enroll a more advantaged student body that may be present in other PBF systems.

While previous research on higher education policy diffusion often conceptualizes diffusion as occuring across neighboring governments, we conceptualize policy diffusion as also occuring across pairs of governments (dyads) regardless of geographic proximity. We apply both conceptualizations and use survival analysis techniques to examine factors associated with state adoption of performance funding equity metrics. Results show that the proportion of neighbors with equity metrics is unrelated to the likelihood of adopting a metric for either the 2- or 4-year sector, suggesting no evidence of policy diffusion across borders. The directed dyad analysis reveals that states are less likely to adopt a 4-year metric when the other state in the pair already operates a 4-year metric, indicating that states look beyond neighbors in policy avoidance behaviors. Internal state factors such as higher levels of legislative professionalism and greater enrollment of underrepresented minority and low-income students increase the likelihood of policy adoption. A state is less likely to imitate the adoption of 2-year equity metrics in another state when the pair show greater differences in legislative professionalism, minority and low-income student enrollment, income per capita, and income inequality. Our research highlights the utility of quantitatively modeling policy diffusion across governmental units that are distantly located, especially for higher education policy components that are nationally visible.

The growth of the public discourse on college completion and student debt has pushed policymakers and institutional leaders to implement a variety of policies aimed at incentivizing student completion. This article examines state-adopted excess credit hour (ECH) policies on student completion and median debt outcomes. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we find little evidence that ECH policies positively affect student completion. However, we find statistically large estimates that adoption of ECH policies increase median student debt. Students from marginalized backgrounds (i.e., first-generation and low-income) appear to be most adversely affected by ECH policies. As states face constant pressures for resources, the adoption of tuition-based surcharges does not significantly alter student course-taking behaviors, rather shifts the cost burdens from the state to the individual student for perceived inefficiencies in students’ course-taking behaviors.

The federal government holds colleges accountable if too many of their students default on loan repayment, but the default measure traditionally used captures only a fraction of students who are struggling to repay their loans. The 2015 College Scorecard dataset introduced a new loan repayment metric, showing that the percentage of students who have not reduced the principal balance of their loans by at least $1 over a given period of time far outstrips the traditional loan default measure. Using a sample of 3,595 colleges, we test the extent to which student demographics, institutional characteristics, and state-level economic factors are associated with repayment rates and default rates. We also examine whether factors associated with loan repayment rates change between one and seven years after students begin repayment. We find that characteristics traditionally associated with economic disadvantage, including being a first-generation college student or a member of an underrepresented minority group, tend to be associated with lower loan repayment rates, as does attendance at for-profit colleges. These factors are just as or more strongly associated with longer-term repayment rates compared to shorter-term repayment rates.

Discussions of college costs often focus on tuition and fees, but living cost allowances for room, board, and other expenses account for more than half of the total cost of attending college. The allowances, developed by colleges and universities, also affect student eligibility for federal financial aid and the accuracy of accountability systems. This study examined institutional variation in living cost allowances and assessed the consistency of allowances by comparing them to living cost estimates specific to the college’s region. Results across multiple specifications indicated that nearly half of all colleges provide living-cost allowances at least 20% above or below estimated county-level living expenses.

Income inequality in educational attainment is a long-standing concern, and disparities in college completion have grown over time. Need-based financial aid is commonly used to promote equality in college outcomes, but its effectiveness has not been established, and some are calling it into question. A randomized experiment is used to estimate the impact of a private need-based grant program on college persistence and degree completion among students from low-income families attending 13 public universities across Wisconsin. Results indicate that offering students additional grant aid increases the odds of bachelor’s degree attainment over four years, helping to diminish income inequality in higher education.

Background The concept of competency-based education (CBE), in which some or all of a student's progression through a degree program is separated from the traditional credit hour model, has gained popularity in the last few years. However, little research has examined the types of students who enroll in CBE programs and whether CBE results in cost savings for different groups of students. Methods In this paper, I examine some of the first colleges with CBE programs and detail their student bodies, pricing structures, and whether CBE programs represent a lower-cost route to a degree than traditional programs for students with financial need. Results I find that while CBE programs can result in significant cost savings for students making quick progress toward a degree, traditional models may be better for low-income students taking fewer courses per year. However, as more CBE programs become eligible to receive federal financial aid dollars, CBE programs can make financial sense for more students. Conclusion Little research has been done on the details of CBE, and more is needed before programs enroll a larger percentage of students. I suggest additional research on the cost of providing CBE degrees, as well as a closer examination of what types of students and programs are well-suited to competency-based models.

An increasingly important goal of state policymakers is to keep young, well-educated adults to remain in that state instead of moving elsewhere after college, as evidenced by New York’s recent move to tie state grant aid to staying in state after graduation. We used American Community Survey data from 2005–2015 to examine the prevalence of interstate mobility over the past decade as well as provide state-level rates of “brain drain.” We found substantial variations in interstate mobility across states, which has important policy implications.

Research and data analysis show that there is a shortage of primary care providers throughout the United States. Physician assistants (PAs) play an important role in health care delivery; however, the percentage of PAs practicing in primary care has dramatically decreased in the past 15 years. The purpose of this study was to identify potential factors that influence PA students' first job choice following graduation from a PA program to determine whether they have a relationship to the choosing of primary care. The 2016 End of Program Survey data were analyzed using a multinominal logistic regression to determine what factors influenced PA students' selections of primary care as their first job choice: individual factors, program factors, and external factors. Of the 3038 subjects, 269 (8.9%) accepted a job in primary care, 847 (27.9%) accepted a specialty job, and 1922 (63.3%) did not accept a job. When comparing no job accepted versus primary care job choice, marital status and racial/ethnic differences influenced first job choice. Financial factors were also found to be significant predictors. In the second model, comparing specialty versus primary care job choice, marital status influenced first job choice along with financial factors. In addition, one program variable (moderate clinical rotation experience) was found to be statistically significant in the model of specialty versus primary care job choice. Financial factors were found to be the greatest predictor in first job choice. Focusing on policy to help reduce student debt and increase reimbursement rates could help increase the number of students choosing primary care.

Student fees make up 20% of the total cost of tuition and fees at the typical four-year public, yet little research has been conducted to examine institutional-level and state-level factors that may affect student fee charges. I use panel data to find that institutional selectivity and athletics spending do not influence student fee levels. However, tuition caps and gubernatorial control of fees are associated with increased fees and the presence of a fee cap, coordinating board authority over setting fees, and the presence of a Republican governor are associated with lower fee levels.

State-level performance-based funding (PBF) policies are an increasingly common way to allocate funds to public colleges and universities. While a growing body of research has examined whether these policies are effective in improving student outcomes, little is known about how colleges respond to PBF policies. In this paper, we examine whether two-year and four-year colleges subject to PBF change their patterns and allocations of revenues, expenditures, and financial aid. We find limited evidence that colleges facing PBF receive different levels of revenue or reallocate some funds to different expenditure categories. Notably, colleges subject to PBF receive less Pell Grant revenue than colleges not subject to PBF, suggesting potential strategic behaviors targeting students from higher-income families.

The persistently low college attainment rates of youth from poor families are partly attributable to their uncertainty about college affordability. The current federal financial aid system does not provide specific information about college costs until just before college enrollment and the information is only available to students completing a complex application. Evidence suggests this late timing reduces their motivation and ability to adequately prepare for college. This paper evaluates the fiscal consequences of instead making an early commitment of the full Pell grant to eighth graders from needy families, using a simplified eligibility process. Analyses conducted using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics suggest the predicted costs are low relative to the benefits estimated using prior research findings. A simulation of the estimated fiscal effects indicates that Pell program costs would grow by approximately $1.5 billion annually and the benefits would exceed the costs by approximately $600 million.

Whether colleges increase tuition in response to increased federal student loan limits (the Bennett Hypothesis) has been a topic of debate in the higher education community for decades, yet most studies have been based on small increases to Pell Grant or undergraduate student loan limits. In this paper, I leverage a large increase in graduate student lending limits that took place in 2006 followed by an expansion of federal income-driven repayment programs to examine whether law schools responded by raising tuition and whether student debt levels also increased. Using data from 2001 to 2015 across public and private law schools and both interrupted time series and difference-in-differences analytical techniques, I found rather modest relationships across both public and private nonprofit law schools. I conclude with some possible explanations for the lack of strong empirical support for the Bennett Hypothesis.