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Earth's polar ice sheets are projected to undergo significant retreat in the coming centuries if anthropogenic warming were to continue unabated, injecting freshwater stored on land over millennia into oceans and raise the global mean sea level. Ice sheet freshwater flux alters the status of ocean stratification and ocean-atmosphere heat exchange, inducing oceanic surface cooling and subsurface warming, hence an impact on the global climate. How the climate effects of ice sheet freshwater would feedback to influence the retreat of ice sheets, however, remains unsettled. Here we develop a two-way coupled climate-ice sheet modeling tool to assess the interactions between retreating polar ice sheets and the climate, considering a variety of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and modeled climate sensitivities. Results from coupled ice sheet-climate modeling show that ice sheet-ocean interactions give rise to multi-centennial oscillations in ocean temperatures around Antarctica, which would make it challenging to isolate anthropogenic signals from observational data. Future projections unveil both positive and negative feedbacks associated with freshwater discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, while the net effect is scenario-dependent. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses in high-emission scenarios, but the process is slowed significantly by cooling induced by ice sheet freshwater flux.

Sea-level rise of even one meter will have drastic global impacts. Melting the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) would raise sea level by 7.4 meters. There is an urgent need to improve predictions of how quickly the GIS will contribute its first meter of sea-level rise, and from where on the ice sheet that water will come. Estimating the volume of Greenland ice that was lost during past warm periods offers a way to constrain the ice sheet’s likely response to future warming. Here, we assess the sea-level potential across Greenland, based on an ensemble of ice-sheet model simulations that represent a wide range of plausible deglaciation styles. The most vulnerable region of the ice sheet is in West Greenland between approximately 64ºN and 76ºN, ranging from ~10 to ~150 km behind the present-day ice margin. The ensemble spread for the most stable regions of the GIS is sensitive to lithospheric feedbacks, while the most vulnerable GIS region is predominantly sensitive to spatial climatology and precipitation lapse rate. These results can guide future subglacial sampling by identifying regions and locations where such data will have the greatest impact on our understanding of ice-sheet vulnerability/contribution to sea-level rise in a warming world.

A new multidisciplinary, international research program aims to tackle one of the grand challenges in climate science: resolving the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s contribution to future sea level rise.

A two-layer model of thermohaline ocean circulation under Antarctic ice shelves is described that predicts sub-oceanic ice-shelf melt rates given the basin geometries and ocean temperatures and sal...

Presented at the PALSEA Express 2020 virtual meeting on September 16, 2020. Project funding by: NSF Grant ICER-1663807, NASA Grant 80NSSC17K0698. Abstract: Global and local sea levels are projected to rise considerably this century, amplifying the frequency of extreme sea levels that can result in deadly and costly coastal flooding. But projections of future sea level rise are highly uncertain, due primarily to uncertainties in human decisions (through emissions pathways) and uncertainties in the mechanisms that could drive Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) mass loss. In some coastal regions, the differences between best and worst case scenario projections can be a meter of sea level rise or more depending on the ice-sheet physics considered. AIS projections strongly depend on model calibration that are often based on varying interpretations or distinct storylines in paleo sea levels. Understanding and differentiating the impact of AIS paleo-storylines remains a research priority, especially to inform coastal adaption and decision-making. In this study we use supervised machine learning to emulate an Antarctic ice-sheet model. The model is forced with a high and low emissions pathways and model run ensembles are constructed assuming two different interpretations of last interglacial (LIG; ~128 kya) AIS mass loss. In particular, relatively high (>6 m) and relatively low (, {"references":["Daniel M. Gilford, Erica L. Ashe, Robert M. DeConto, Robert E. Kopp, David Pollard, Alessio Rovere, 2019: Can the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea-level Rise? JGR-Earth Surface. Zenodo: https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10501078.3"]}

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty that arises from large uncertainty in the external forcing that future warming may exert onto the ice sheet. While ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean, the approach is neglecting a number of processes such as surface mass balance related contributions and mechanisms. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations where an instability is dominating the ice loss. Results obtained here are thus relevant in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014), but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP-5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP-5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming) and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 is 9.6 mm with a likely range between 5.2 mm and 20.3 mm compared to the observed sea-level contribution from Antarctica of 7.4 mm with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018). For the so-called business-as-usual warming path, RCP-8.5, we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea-level rise within the 21st century of 17 cm with a likely range (66-percentile around the mean) between 9 cm and 36 cm and a very likely range (90-percentile around the mean) between 6 cm and 59 cm. For the RCP-2.6 warming path which will keep the global mean temperature below two degrees of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea-level contribution. The likely range for the RCP-2.6 scenario is between 7 cm and 25 cm and the very likely range is between 5 cm and 39 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario, separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade with a likely range between 2 cm/dec and 8 cm/dec and a very likely range between 1 cm/dec and 13 cm/dec.

Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23-14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3-4 degrees C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major dis-conformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (similar to 280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (similar to 500 ppm) atmospheric CO2. These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene.

An ocean simulation of the "greenhouse" climate of the Late Cretaceous, about 80 million years ago (Ma), demonstrates that warm salty deep water, consistent with proxy climate data, can be formed by cooling in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere. This is contrary to the long standing hypothesis of deep water formation due to evapo- ration over low latitude marginal seas. A reduced equator

The Campanian age of the Late Cretaceous was warm, with no evidence for permanent or seasonal sea ice at high latitudes. Sea level was high, creating extensive epicontinental and shallow shelf seas. Very low meridional thermal gradients existed in the oceans and on land. Campanian (80 Ma) climate and vegetation have been simulated using GENESIS (Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) Version 2.0 and EVE (Equilibrium Vegetation Ecology model), developed by the Climate Change Research section of the Climate and Global Dynamics division at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research). GENESIS is a comprehensive Earth system model, requiring high resolution (2^circ by 2^circ) solid earth boundary condition data as input for paleoclimate simulations. Boundary condition data define certain prescribed global fields such as the distribution of land-sea-ice, topography, orographic roughness, and soil texture, as well as atmospheric chemistry, the solar constant, and orbital parameters that define the latitudinal distribution of solar insolation. A comprehensive, high resolution paleogeography has been reconstructed for the Campanian. The paleogeography, based on a new global plate tectonic model, provides the framework for the solid earth boundary conditions used in the paleoclimate simulation. Because terrestrial ecosystems influence global climate by affecting the exchange of energy, water and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere, the distribution of global vegetation should be included in pre-Quaternary paleoclimate simulations. However, reconstructing global vegetation distributions from the fossil record is difficult. EVE predicts the equilibrium state of plant community structure as a function of climate and fundamental ecological principles. The model has been modified to reproduce a vegetation distribution based on life forms that existed in the Late Cretaceous. EVE has been applied as a fully interactive component of the Campanian simulation. 1500 ppm CO_2 and a QFACTOR of 4 were sufficient to maintain forest over Antarctica and high northern latitudes. The QFACTOR is the multiplicative of the oceanic heat diffusion coefficient in the slab-mixed layer ocean component of GENESIS. The simulated Campanian oceanic heat transport has maximum values of about 1.7 times 10^{15} W at 25 ^circ north and 2.6 times 10^{15} W at 25^ circ south, similar to present day observed values. Late Cretaceous forests played an important role in the maintenance of low meridional thermal gradients, polar warmth, and equable continental interiors. The Campanian high to polar latitude forests decreased surface albedo (especially in late winter-early spring, prior to snow melt), and increased net radiation and fluxes of sensible and latent heat. This warmed the high latitude troposphere and increased atmospheric moisture. The warmer atmospheric temperatures reduced winter cooling of the high latitude sea surface and aided the advection of warm, moist air from the oceans into the continental interiors.