Search

The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) is seamless/ online integrated numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport modelling system. It is capable of simultaneous simulation of meteorology – atmospheric composition and downscaling/nesting for regional–subregional–urban scales. The research and development are focused on: multi-scale modelling up to fine resolution; improving parameterizations describing urban processes, boundary/surface layer structures; implementation of emissions, aerosol/chemistry mechanisms, aerosol feedback and interactions. The Enviro-components includes: gas-phase chemistry; aerosol microphysics and deposition processes; urban sublayer physics parameterisations; direct/indirect/combined aerosol feedbacks due to radiation; locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme; natural and anthropogenic emission inventories. The model has modules for pre-processing of the ECMWF’s initial/ boundary conditions for meteorology-chemistry-aerosols, observations for data assimilation, and selected emission inventories. The model has been developed through HPC projects such as Enviro-HIRLAM at CSC and Enviro-PEEX(Plus) at ECMWF, as well as other research projects.The research and development of Enviro-HILRAM and its application will be demonstrated on examples, where this model is used as a research tool for studies in domain of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme. The examples include: Integrated modelling for assessment of potential pollution regional atmospheric transport as result of accidental wildfires; Integrated modelling and analysis of influence of land cover changes on regional weather conditions/ patterns; High-resolution integrated urban environmental modelling with integration of the urban large-eddy simulation (PALM model) and meteorological simulations into a seamless modelling chain; Effects of spring air pollution and weather on Covid-19 infection/situation in Finland; Meteorology integration between seamless and trajectory (FLEXPART model) models; and others. The Enviro-HIRLAM model generated output provides valuable input (3D meteorology and atmospheric composition) to assessment studies, and it as can be integrated into GIS environment for further risk/ vulnerability/ consequences/ etc. estimation, and other studies.

We present an inter-comparison of simulated sea-salt aerosols (SSA) in CMIP6 models, including an evaluation against station observations in the Artic and Antarctic regions and satellite data. Drivers of model diversity are investigated. Historical and future trends are also explored and connected to their driving mechanisms. Additionally, the sensitivity of the polar radiative budget to SSA in CMIP6 models is quantified and put in relation to present-day uncertainties and future trends. Comparisons suggest (i) a large inter-model spread in SSA surface concentrations mostly driven by the diversity in source functions, (ii) an important overestimation of SSA surface concentrations compared to measurement stations but reasonable agreement with optical depth from satellite data, (iii) difficulties in properly capturing the annual cycle of SSA at both poles, particularly at higher latitude. A generally increasing trend in SSA concentrations is found in CMIP6 over the last decades and in future scenarios. CMIP6 models show that SSA contribute to cooling the poles significantly, implying possible uncertainties of several W/m2 in the present-day polar radiative budget.

To be able to meet global grand challenges (climate change; biodiversity loss; environmental pollution; scarcity of water, food and energy supplies; acidification; deforestation; chemicalization; pandemics), which all are closely interlinked with each other, we need comprehensive open data with proper metadata. The large data sets from ground-base in situ observations, ground and satellite remote sensing and multiscale modelling need to be utilized seamlessly. In this opinion paper, we describe the SMEAR (Station for Measuring Earth surface – Atmosphere Relations) concept. We also demonstrate its power via several examples, such as detection of new particle formation and their subsequent growth, quantifying atmosphere-ecosystem feedback loops, combining comprehensive observations with emergency science and services, as well as studying the effect of COVID restrictions on different air quality and climate variables. The future needs and the potential of comprehensive observations of the environment are summarized.

Overview of the NICEST2 project and reflection on the successes, failures and possible improvements for follow-up projects.

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics, and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These, and other, influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue, and potentially strengthen, in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emissions pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread in near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emissions pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of five, from -0.3 to -1.5 W m-2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealized aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint, and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location, and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (East Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission location and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and are intended to be performed with sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

For short-lived climate forcers such as black carbon (BC), the atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing (RF) and, ultimately, the subsequent effects on climate, depend on the location and timing of the emissions. Here, we employ the NorESM1-Happi version of Norwegian Earth System Model to systematically study how the RF associated with BC emissions depends on the latitude, longitude and seasonality of the emissions. The model aerosol scheme is run in an offline mode, to allow for an essentially noise-free evaluation of the RF associated with even minor changes in emissions. Both the BC direct RF (dirRF) and the RF associated with BC in snow/ice (snowRF) are calculated for emissions in 192 latitude-longitude boxes covering the globe, both for seasonally uniform emissions and for emissions in each of the four seasons separately. We also calculate a rough estimate of the global temperature response to regional emissions, and provide a fortran-based tool to facilitate the further use of our results. Overall, the results demonstrate that the BC RFs strongly depend on the latitude, longitude and season of the emissions. In particular, the global-mean dirRF normalized by emissions (direct specific forcing; dirSF) depends much more strongly on the emission location than suggested by previous studies that have considered emissions from continental/subcontinental-scale regions. Even for seasonally uniform emissions, dirSF varies by more than a factor of ten depending on emission location. These variations correlate strongly with BC lifetime, which varies from less than 2 days to 11 days. BC dirSF is largest for emissions in tropical convective regions and in subtropical and midlatitude continents in summer, both due to the abundant solar radiation and strong convective transport, which increases BC lifetime and the amount of BC above clouds. The dirSF is also relatively large for emissions in high-albedo high-latitude regions such as Antarctica and Greenland. The dependence of snow specific forcing (snowSF) on the emission location is even larger. While BC emissions originating from most low-latitude regions result in negligible snowSF, the maxima of snowSF for emissions in polar regions greatly exceed the largest values of dirSF for low-latitude emissions. The large magnitude of snowSF for high-latitude BC emissions suggests that, for a given mass of BC emitted, also the climate impacts are largest for high-latitude emissions. The additivity of the RFs resulting from BC emissions in different regions and seasons is also investigated. It is found that dirRF is almost additive for current-day emissions: summing the RFs computed for individual regions/seasons without considering BC emissions from elsewhere overestimates dirRF by less than 10 %. For snowRF, the overestimate is somewhat larger, ~20 %.

Short summary We summarize results during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, especially from Russia, and introduce recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis. The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Science Plan, released in 2015, addressed a need for a holistic system understanding and outlined the most urgent research needs for the rapidly changing Arctic-boreal region. Air quality in China, together with the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants, was also indicated as one of the most crucial topics of the research agenda. These two geographical regions, the northern Eurasian Arctic-boreal region and China, especially the megacities in China, were identified as a “PEEX region”. It is also important to recognize that the PEEX geographical region is an area where science-based policy actions would have significant impacts on the global climate. This paper summarizes results obtained during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, together with recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China, in the context of the PEEX programme. The main regions of interest are the Russian Arctic, northern Eurasian boreal forests (Siberia) and peatlands, and the megacities in China. We frame our analysis against research themes introduced in the PEEX Science Plan in 2015. We summarize recent progress towards an enhanced holistic understanding of the land–atmosphere–ocean systems feedbacks. We conclude that although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, the new results are in many cases insufficient, and there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures, especially the lack of coordinated, continuous and comprehensive in situ observations of the study region as well as integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis. The fast-changing environment and ecosystem changes driven by climate change, socio-economic activities like the China Silk Road Initiative, and the global trends like urbanization further complicate such analyses. We recognize new topics with an increasing importance in the near future, especially “the enhancing biological sequestration capacity of greenhouse gases into forests and soils to mitigate climate change” and the “socio-economic development to tackle air quality issues”.

The Russian Far East is a region between China and the Russian Arctic with a diverse climatological, geophysical, oceanic, and economical characteristic. The southern region is located in the Far East monsoon sector, while the northern parts are affected by the Arctic Ocean and cold air masses penetrating far to the south. Growing economic activities and traffic connected to the China Belt and Road Initiative together with climate change are placing an increased pressure upon the Russian Far East environment. There is an urgent need to improve the capacity to measure the atmospheric and environmental pollution and analyze their sources and to quantify the relative roles of local and transported pollution emissions in the region. In the paper, we characterize the current environmental and socio-economical landscape of the Russian Far East and summarize the future climate scenarios and identify the key regional research questions. We discuss the research infrastructure concept, which is needed to answer the identified research questions. The integrated observations, filling in the critical observational gap at the Northern Eurasian context, are required to provide state-of-the-art observations and enable follow-up procedures that support local, regional, and global decision making in the environmental context.

Strong, ongoing high latitude-warming is causing changes to vegetation composition and plant productivity, modifying plant emissions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs). In the sparsely populated high latitudes, climatic feedbacks resulting from BVOCs as precursors of atmospheric aerosols could be more important than elsewhere on the globe. Here, we quantitatively assess the linkages between vegetation changes, BVOC emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) under different climate scenarios and show that warming-induced vegetation changes determine the spatial patterns of BVOC impacts on SOA. The northward advances of boreal needle-leaved trees and shrubs result in an increase of up to 45% in regional SOA optical depth, causing a cooling feedback. In contrast, areas dominated by temperate broad-leaved trees show a large decline in monoterpene emissions and SOA formation, causing a warming feedback. We highlight the necessity of considering vegetation shifts when assessing radiative feedbacks on climate following the BVOC-SOA pathway.

The main objective of the FREYA has been to assess the contributions of individual manmade emission sources versus long-range transported air pollution on surface pollutant levels over the Nordic r ...

This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from −0.4 to −0.9 W m−2. The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m−2, based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is −0.54 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and −0.59 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.

The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Science Plan, released in 2015, addressed a need for a holistic system understanding and outlined the most urgent research needs for sustainable development in the Artic-boreal region. Air quality in China and long-range transport of the atmospheric pollutants was also indicated as one of the most crucial topics of the research agenda. This paper summarizes results obtained during the last five years in the Northern Eurasian region. It also introduces recent observations on the air quality in the urban environments in China. The main regions of interest are the Russian Arctic, Northern Eurasian boreal forests (Siberia) and peatlands and on the mega cities in China. We frame our analysis against research themes introduced in 2015. We summarize recent progress in the understanding of the land – atmosphere – ocean systems feedbacks. Although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate-Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures and integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis. The fast-changing environment and ecosystem changes driven by climate change, socio-economic activities like the China Silk Road Initiative, and the global trends like urbanization further complicate such analyses. We recognize new topics with an increasing importance in the near future, such as enhancing biological sequestration capacity of greenhouse gases into forests and soils to mitigate the climate change and the socio-economic development to tackle air quality issues.

We have implemented and evaluated a secondary organic aerosol scheme within the chemistry transport model TM5-MP in this work. In earlier versions of TM5-MP the secondary organic aerosol was emitted as Aitken sized particle mass emulating the condensation. In the current scheme we simulate the formation of SOA from oxidation of isoprene and monoterpenes by ozone and hydroxyl radicals which produce semi-volatile organic compounds and extremely low-volatility compounds. Subsequently, SVOC and ELVOC can condense on particles. Furthermore, we have introduced a new particle formation mechanism depending on the concentration of ELVOCs. For evaluation purposes, we have simulated the year 2010 with the old and new scheme, where we see an increase in simulated production of SOA from 39.9 Tg y−1 with the old scheme to 52.5 Tg y−1 with the new scheme. For more detailed analysis, the particle mass and number concentrations and their influence on the simulated aerosol optical depth are compared to observations. Phenomenologically, the new particle formation scheme implemented here is able to reproduce the occurrence of observed particle formation events. However, the concentrations of formed particles are clearly lower as is the subsequent growth to larger sizes. Compared to the old scheme, the new scheme is increasing the number concentrations across the observation stations while still underestimating the observations. The total aerosol mass concentrations in the US show a much better seasonal cycle and removal of a clear overestimation of concentrations. In Europe the mass concentrations are lowered leading to a larger underestimation of observations. Aerosol optical depth is generally slightly increased except in the northern high latitudes. This brings the simulated annual global mean AOD closer to observational estimate. However, as the increase is rather uniform, biases tend to be reduced only in regions where the model underestimates the AOD. Furthermore, the correlation against satellite retrievals and ground-based sun-photometer observations are improved. Although the process based approach to SOA formation causes reduction in model performance in some areas, overall the new scheme improves the simulated aerosol fields.

The development of robust emission metrics to guide climate policy is more complicated for short-lived climate forcers like black carbon (BC) than for long-lived greenhouse gases like CO2. The challenge is that for short-lived climate forcers, the atmospheric concentrations, the radiative forcing (RF), and ultimately, effects on climate, depend on the location and timing of the emissions. In the present work, the impact of emission location and season on the RF resulting from emissions of BC is studied using the NorESM1 climate model. NorESM1 is run in a configuration in which the distribution of aerosols is simulated using a state-of-the-art aerosol scheme, but the interactive aerosols are not allowed to influence the simulated meteorological conditions. Consequently, the patterns of weather are repeated identically irrespective of the assumed aerosol emissions. This allows for an essentially noise-free evaluation of the radiative forcing associated with changes in aerosol emissions, irrespective of the magnitude and spatiotemporal extent of the emission changes.We employ the model to systematically evaluate the radiative forcing efficiency (i.e., global-mean RF divided by the emissions) of BC emissions, for various assumptions about the latitude, longitude and season of the emissions. The BC direct effect and the effect of BC on snow albedo are considered. Preliminary results from tests focusing on BC emissions in the subarctic region (60-70°N) indicate the RF efficiency depends strongly both on the timing and longitude of the emissions. The RF efficiency of emissions in spring and summer is much larger than that of emissions in fall and winter, mainly due to the stronger insolation. Furthermore, emissions in the Siberian and North American sectors have higher RF efficiency than emissions in the Atlantic and European sectors. This is largely because emissions from subarctic Siberia and North America preferentially increase the atmospheric BC burden and BC deposition in regions with seasonal snow cover persisting into late spring / early summer. This acts to increase both the BC direct RF and the RF due to BC in snow. Furthermore, long atmospheric residence times act to increase the direct RF associated with Siberian BC emissions in summer.An implication is that the use of large-scale mean (e.g., subarctic average) emission metrics may mispresent the role of BC emissions from smaller regions like individual countries.

The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.

Aerosol–cloud interactions contribute to a large portion of the spread in estimates of climate forcing, climate sensitivity and future projections. An important part of this uncertainty is how much new particle formation (NPF) contributes to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and, furthermore, how this changes with changes in anthropogenic emissions. Incorporating NPF and early growth in Earth system models (ESMs) is, however, challenging due to uncertain parameters (e.g. participating vapours), structural issues (numerical description of growth from ∼1 to ∼100 nm) and the large scale of an ESM grid compared to the NPF scale. A common approach in ESMs is to represent the particle size distribution by a certain number of log-normal modes. Sectional schemes, on the other hand, in which the size distribution is represented by bins, are considered closer to first principles because they do not make an a priori assumption about the size distribution. In order to improve the representation of early growth, we have implemented a sectional scheme for the smallest particles (5–39.6 nm diameter) in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), feeding particles into the original aerosol scheme. This is, to our knowledge, the first time such an approach has been tried. We find that including the sectional scheme for early growth improves the aerosol number concentration in the model when comparing against observations, particularly in the 50–100 nm diameter range. Furthermore, we find that the model with the sectional scheme produces much fewer particles than the original scheme in polluted regions, while it produces more in remote regions and the free troposphere, indicating a potential impact on the estimated aerosol forcing. Finally, we analyse the effect on cloud–aerosol interactions and find that the effect of changes in NPF efficiency on clouds is highly heterogeneous in space. While in remote regions, more efficient NPF leads to higher cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), in polluted regions the opposite is in fact the case.

Cloud-aerosol interactions give rise to much of the uncertainty in estimates of climate forcing, climate sensitivity and thus also future climate predictions. Furthermore, the modelled concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the past, present and future are highly dependent on the how the models represent new particle formation (NPF) – a process which is both poorly understood theoretically and difficult to model due to its complex nature. Global modellers in particular have to prioritize between theoretical accuracy and keeping computational costs low. A common approach in these models is to use a modal scheme to parameterize the sizedistribution of the aerosols, while sectional schemes are in general considered closer to first principals.To better capture the dynamics of early growth in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), we have implemented a sectional scheme for the smallest particles (currently 5 - 39 nm), which proceeds to feed particles into the original modal scheme (Kirkevåg et al, 2018) after growth. The sectional scheme includes two species, H2SO4 and low volatile organics and has 5 bins. The motivation is: (1) In the original scheme in NorESM, newly formed particles are added to the smallest mode which has a number median diameter of 23.6 nm. The survival of particles from NPF (formed at ~4 nm diameter) to this mode is calculated based on Lehtinen et al (2007). Thus it does not take into account dynamics within this size range, i.e. competition for condensing vapours and growth of particles over more than one time step. (2) Including a sectional scheme in this range adds precision for this crucial stage of growth while keeping the computational cost low due to the limited number of species involved (currently 2 in the model). (3) A sectional scheme within this size range is an interesting alternative to a nucleation mode, which is known to have problems with moving particles to larger sizes at the same time as adding newly formed particles.We present several sensitivity tests which investigate the response of the model to changes in emissions of SO2 and biogenic volatile organic compounds and nucleation parameterizations, with and without the sectional scheme. Our results in particular show that in the globally averaged boundary layer, the sectional scheme drastically reduces the number of particles that survive to the modal scheme compared the original model, while more particles survive in remote regions. On the other hand, the sectional scheme is less sensitive to the choice in NPF/nucleation parameterization. References: Lehtinen, Kari E. J., Miikka Dal Maso, Markku Kulmala, and Veli-Matti Kerminen. "Estimating Nucleation Rates from Apparent Particle Formation Rates and Vice Versa: Revised Formulation of the Kerminen–Kulmala Equation." Journal of Aerosol Science 38, no. 9 (September 1, 2007): 988–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaerosci.2007.06.009.Kirkevåg, A., A. Grini, D. Olivié, Ø. Seland, K. Alterskjær, M. Hummel, I.H.H Karset, A. Lewinschal, X. Liu, R. Makkonen, I. Bethke, J. Griesfeller, M. Schulz and T. Iversen. "A production-tagged aerosol module for Earth system models, OsloAero5.3 – extensions and updates for CAM5.3-Oslo." Geoscientific Model Development 11. no. 10 (October, 2018): 3945--3982. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3945-2018

We took science to the streets of Helsinki using urban art in order to foster communication between scientists and the general public.Researchers from the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) and Finnish Meteorological Institute, together with artists from Helsinki Urban Art co-designed a public mural that joined climate research, art and literary characters of Alice in Wonderland. The Climate Wall illustrates the 1.5°C and 4°C pathways and highlights the need for a transition from a greenhouse-gas spewing caterpillar into a sustainable butterfly. The wall includes the hashtag #ScienceInHelsinki and INAR’s twitter handle inviting passers-by to ask scientists questions anytime.The design of the mural was a joint effort, from posing the starting question, “what is the key message we want to deliver?”, to the final imagery used on the wall (and some actual painting!). Methods used for the co-design process included in-person workshops, a facebook group, and online virtual ‘whiteboards’, which resulted in a collateral result of this project: how scientists and artists can work together effectively.The Climate Wall was inaugurated in a public event at Helsinki Central Library Oodi auditorium in December 2019 with a short presentation, a panel discussion with some of the scientists and artists, and a children’s workshop (“The Art of Asking Questions”).The project took place from May 2019 until the mural’s completion on October 2019, and was funded by the Finnish Arts Promotion Center (Taike).

The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme is a long-term programme. One of the PEEX Research Infrastructure’s components is the PEEX-Modelling-Platform (PEEX-MP; www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/index.php/modelling-platform). PEEX-MP includes more than 30 different models running at different scales, resolutions, geographical domains, resolving different physical-chemical-biological processes, etc. and used as research tools providing insights and valuable information/ output for different level assessments for environment and population. These models cover main components - atmosphere, hydrosphere, pedosphere and biosphere. The seamless coupling multi-scale and -processes modelling concept developed is important and advanced step towards realization of the PEEX research agenda presented in the PEEX Science Plan (www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/images/PEEX_Science_Plan.pdf). Accessibility to infrastructure with High Performance Computing is important for such modelling.In particular, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment – HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) & HARMONIE (The HIRLAM-ALADIN Research for Meso-scale Operational NWP In Europe) models can be applied for multi-scale and –processes studies on interactions and feedbacks of meteorology vs aerosols/chemistry; aerosols vs. cloud formation and radiative forcing; boundary layer parameterizations; urbanization processes impact on changes in urban weather and climate; assessments for human and environment; improving prediction of extreme weather/ pollution events; etc. All these can be studied at different spatial (urban-subregional-regional) and temporal scales. In addition, added value to analysis is obtained through integration of modelling results into GIS environment for further risk/vulnerability/consequences/etc. studies.As part of the Enviro-PEEX project (www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/index.php/enviro), the models were used to study aerosols feedbacks and interactions in Arctic-boreal domain at regional scale & effects of radar data assimilation at mesoscale resolution, respectively.Enviro-HIRLAM model was run in a long-term mode at 15-5 km resolutions for reference and aerosols effects (direct, indirect, combined included) with ECMWF boundary conditions and anthropogenic/ biogenic/ natural emissions pre-processed. Analysis of differences between model runs for basic statistics (avg, med, max, min, std) showed less pronounced variations of concentrations for average in Arctic regions vs other regions, and more pronounced for maximum concentration in Russian Siberia and Ural. Monthly averaged sulphur dioxide was larger over mid-latitudes (influence of anthropogenic sources) with maximum due to long-range atmospheric transport. For particular matter, it is lower in Arctic compared with mid-latitudes, but their composition is dominated by sea salt aerosols.HARMONIE model was tested with pre-processing (optimising inner parameters) and data assimilation of radar reflectivity, which minimize a representative error (associated with discrepancy between resolutions in informational sources). The method showed improvement in prediction of precipitation rain rates and spatial pattern within radars’ location areas and better reproduction of mesoscale belts and cell patterns of few-to-ten size in precipitation fields. Compatibility between model resolution and smoothed radar observation density was achieved by “cube-smoothing” approach. This ensures equivalent presentation of precipitation (reflectivity) structures in both model and observation in a sense of equally preserving the scales of precipitation patterns.Moreover, for selected PEEX-MP models, used by UHEL-INAR, such Enviro-HIRLAM, EC-Earth, MALTE-Box a series of science education oriented trainings/schools is organized in April & August 2020 (ums.rshu.ru & worldslargerivers.boku.ac.at/wlr/index.php/ysss.html) which are part of the PEEX Educational Platform activities as well.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation are oxidized in the atmosphere and can form aerosol particles either by contributing to new particle formation or by condensing onto existing aerosol particles. As the understanding of the importance of BVOCs for aerosol formation has increased over the past 10 years these processes have made their way into Earth System Models (ESMs). In this study, sensitivity experiments are run with three different ESMs, (the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), EC-Earth and ECHAM) to investigate how the direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects are affected by changes in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from BVOCs. In the first two sensitivity model experiments, the yields of SOA precursors from oxidation of BVOCs are changed by ± 50 %. For the third sensitivity test, the formed oxidation products do not participate in the formation of new particles, but are only allowed to condense onto existing aerosols. In the last two sensitivity experiments, the emissions of BVOC compounds (isoprene and monoterpenes) are turned off, one at a time. The results show that the impact on the direct radiative effect (DRE) are linked to the changes in the SOA production in the models, where more SOA leads to a stronger DRE and vice versa. The magnitude by which the DRE changes (maximally 0.15 W m−2 globally averaged) in response to the SOA changes however varies between the models, with EC-Earth displaying the largest changes. The results for the cloud radiative effects (CRE) are more complicated than for the DRE. The changes in CRE differ more among the ESMs and for some sensitivity experiments they even have different signs. The most sensitive models are NorESM and EC-Earth, which has CRE changes of up to 0.82 W m−2. The varying responses in the different models are connected to where in the aerosol size distributions the changes in mass and number due to SOA formation occur, in combination with the aerosol number concentration levels in the models. We also find that interactive gas-phase chemistry as well as the new particle formation parameterization have important implications for the DRE and CRE in some of the sensitivity experiments. The results from this study indicate that BVOC-SOA treatment in ESMs can have a substantial impact on the modelled climate but that the sensitivity varies greatly between the models. Since BVOC emissions have changed historically and will continue to change in the future, the spread in model results found in this study introduces uncertainty into ESM estimates of aerosol forcing from land-use change and BVOC feedback strengths.

The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program was initiated as a bottom-up approach by the researchers coming from Finland and Russia in October 2012. The PEEX China kick off meeting was held in November 2013. During its five years in operation, the program has established a governance structure and delivered a science plan for the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX has also introduced a concept design for a modelling platform and ground-based in situ observation systems for detecting land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Today, PEEX has an extensive researcher’s network representing research communities coming from the Nordic countries, Russia and China. PEEX is currently carrying out its research activities on a project basis, but is looking for more coordinated funding bases, especially in Russia and in China. The near-future challenge in implementing the PEEX research agenda is to achieve a successful integration and identification of the methodological approaches of the socio-economic research to environmental sciences. Here we give insight into these issues and provide an overview on the main tasks for the upcoming years. The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program was initiated as a bottom-up approach by the researchers coming from Finland and Russia in October 2012. The PEEX China kick off meeting was held in November 2013. During its five years in operation, the program has established a governance structure and delivered a science plan for the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX has also introduced a concept design for a modelling platform and ground-based in situ observation systems for detecting land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Today, PEEX has an extensive researcher’s network representing research communities coming from the Nordic countries, Russia and China. PEEX is currently carrying out its research activities on a project basis, but is looking for more coordinated funding bases, especially in Russia and in China. The near-future challenge in implementing the PEEX research agenda is to achieve a successful integration and identification of the methodological approaches of the socio-economic research to environmental sciences. Here we give insight into these issues and provide an overview on the main tasks for the upcoming years. The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) program was initiated as a bottom-up approach by the researchers coming from Finland and Russia in October 2012. The PEEX China kick off meeting was held in November 2013. During its five years in operation, the program has established a governance structure and delivered a science plan for the Northern Eurasian region. PEEX has also introduced a concept design for a modelling platform and ground-based in situ observation systems for detecting land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Today, PEEX has an extensive researcher’s network representing research communities coming from the Nordic countries, Russia and China. PEEX is currently carrying out its research activities on a project basis, but is looking for more coordinated funding bases, especially in Russia and in China. The near-future challenge in implementing the PEEX research agenda is to achieve a successful integration and identification of the methodological approaches of the socio-economic research to environmental sciences. Here we give insight into these issues and provide an overview on the main tasks for the upcoming years.

A total of sixteen global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study. Fourteen models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011–2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations, located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments, and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of −24 % and −35 % for particles with dry diameters > 50 nm and > 120 nm and −36 % and −34 % for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2 % and 1.0 %, respectively. Fifteen models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40 % during winter and 20 % in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB −17 % and −22 % for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6 m s−1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally-derived value at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index-of-agreement of 0.47 vs 0.50). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration and to updraft velocity. Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high.

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011–2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of −24 % and −35 % for particles with dry diameters >50 and >120 nm, as well as −36 % and −34 % for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2 % and 1.0 %, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations ( %) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2 % (CCN0.2) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40 % during winter and 20 % in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB −13 % and −22 % for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6 m s−1, respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (∂Nd/∂Na) and to updraft velocity (∂Nd/∂w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities ∂Nd/∂Na and ∂Nd/∂w; models may be predisposed to be too “aerosol sensitive” or “aerosol insensitive” in aerosol–cloud–climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain inter-model biases on the aerosol indirect effect.

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the largest source of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the global climate. A phenomenon not included in the estimates of the total net forcing is the potential increase in upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) by anthropogenic aerosols via changes in the microphysics of deep convection. Using remote sensing data over the ocean east of China in summer, we show that increased aerosol loads are associated with an UTH increase of 2.2 ± 1.5 in units of relative humidity. We show that humidification of aerosols or other meteorological covariation is very unlikely to be the cause for this result indicating relevance for the global climate. In tropical moist air such an UTH increase leads to a regional radiative effect of 0.5 ± 0.4 W m−2. We conclude that the effect of aerosols on UTH should be included in future studies of anthropogenic climate change and climate sensitivity.

Disproportional warming in the northern high latitudes and large carbon stocks in boreal and (sub)arctic ecosystems have raised concerns as to whether substantial positive climate feedbacks from biogeochemical process responses should be expected. Such feedbacks occur when increasing temperatures lead, for example, to a net release of CO2 or CH4. However, temperature-enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been shown to contribute to the growth of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which is known to have a negative radiative climate effect. Combining measurements in Eastern Siberia with model-based estimates of vegetation and permafrost dynamics, BVOC emissions, and aerosol growth, we assess here possible future changes in ecosystem CO2 balance and BVOC–SOA interactions and discuss these changes in terms of possible climate effects. Globally, the effects of changes in Siberian ecosystem CO2 balance and SOA formation are small, but when concentrating on Siberia and the Northern Hemisphere the negative forcing from changed aerosol direct and indirect effects become notable – even though the associated temperature response would not necessarily follow a similar spatial pattern. While our analysis does not include other important processes that are of relevance for the climate system, the CO2 and BVOC–SOA interplay serves as an example for the complexity of the interactions between emissions and vegetation dynamics that underlie individual terrestrial processes and highlights the importance of addressing ecosystem–climate feedbacks in consistent, process-based model frameworks.

Non

International audience; We have developed new parameterizations of electrically neutral homogeneous and ion-induced sulfuric acid - water particle formation for large ranges of environmental conditions, based on an improved model that has been validated against a particle formation rate data set produced by Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) experiments at CERN. The model uses a thermodynamically consistent version of the Classical Nucleation Theory normalized using quantum chemical data. Unlike the earlier parameterizations for H2SO4-H2O nucleation, the model is applicable to extreme dry conditions where the one-component sulfuric acid limit is approached. Parameterizations are presented for the critical cluster sulfuric acid mole fraction, the critical cluster radius, the total number of molecules in the critical cluster, and the particle formation rate. If the critical cluster contains only one sulfuric acid molecule, a simple formula for kinetic particle formation can be used: this threshold has also been parameterized. The parameterization for electrically neutral particle formation is valid for the following ranges: temperatures 165-400 K, sulfuric acid concentrations 104-1013 cm−3 and relative humidities 0.001-100%. The ion-induced particle formation parameterization is valid for temperatures 195-400 K, sulfuric acid concentrations 104-1016 cm−3 and relative humidities 10−5-100%. The new parameterizations are thus applicable for the full range of conditions in the Earth's atmosphere relevant for binary sulfuric acid - water particle formation, including both tropospheric and stratospheric conditions. They are also suitable for describing particle formation in the atmosphere of Venus.

The global potential for collecting usable water from dew on an artificial collector sheet was investigated by utilizing 34 years of meteorological reanalysis data as input to a dew formation model. Continental dew formation was found to be frequent and common, but daily yields were mostly below 0.1 mm. Nevertheless, some water-stressed areas such as parts of the coastal regions of northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula show potential for large-scale dew harvesting, as the yearly yield may reach up to 100 L m−2 for a commonly used polyethylene foil. Statistically significant trends were found in the data, indicating overall changes in dew yields of between ±10% over the investigated time period.

Climate models are important tools that are used for generating climate change projections, in which aerosol-climate interactions are one of the main sources of uncertainties. In order to quantify aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, detailed input of anthropogenic aerosol number emissions is necessary. However, the anthropogenic aerosol number emissions are usually converted from the corresponding mass emissions in precompiled emission inventories through a very simplistic method depending uniquely on chemical composition, particle size and density, which are defined for a few very wide main source sectors. In this work, the anthropogenic particle number emissions converted from the AeroCom mass in the ECHAM-HAM climate model were replaced with the recently-formulated number emissions from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)-model, where the emission number size distributions vary, for example, with respect to the fuel and technology. A special attention in our analysis was put on accumulation mode particles (particle diameter dp > 100 nm) because of (i) their capability of acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), thus forming cloud droplets and affecting Earth's radiation budget, and (ii) their dominant role in forming the coagulation sink and thus limiting the concentration of sub-100 nanometers particles. In addition, the estimates of anthropogenic CCN formation, and thus the forcing from aerosol-climate interactions are expected to be affected. Analysis of global particle number concentrations and size distributions reveal that GAINS implementation increases CCN concentration compared with AeroCom, with regional enhancement factors reaching values as high as 10. A comparison between modeled and observed concentrations shows that the increase in number concentration for accumulation mode particle agrees well with measurements, but it leads to a consistent underestimation of both nucleation mode and Aitken mode (dp > 100 nm) particle number concentrations. This suggests that revisions are needed in the new particle formation and growth schemes currently applied in global modeling frameworks.

Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77–0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02–0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. −0.22 W m−2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the climatic differences to the SPH experiment become very small. Finally, the impact of assumed snow grain shape on the radiative effects of absorbing aerosols in snow is discussed.

Oxidation processes in Earth's atmosphere are tightly connected to many environmental and human health issues and are essential drivers for biogeochemistry. Until the recent discovery of the atmospheric relevance of the reaction of stabilized Criegee intermediates (sCIs) with SO2, atmospheric oxidation processes were thought to be dominated by a few main oxidants: ozone, hydroxyl radicals (OH), nitrate radicals and, e.g. over oceans, halogen atoms such as chlorine. Here, we report results from laboratory experiments at 293 K and atmospheric pressure focusing on sCI formation from the ozonolysis of isoprene and the most abundant monoterpenes (α-pinene and limonene), and subsequent reactions of the resulting sCIs with SO2 producing sulfuric acid (H2SO4). The measured total sCI yields were (0.15 ± 0.07), (0.27 ± 0.12) and (0.58 ± 0.26) for α-pinene, limonene and isoprene, respectively. The ratio between the rate coefficient for the sCI loss (including thermal decomposition and the reaction with water vapour) and the rate coefficient for the reaction of sCI with SO2, k(loss) /k(sCI + SO2), was determined at relative humidities of 10 and 50%. Observed values represent the average reactivity of all sCIs produced from the individual alkene used in the ozonolysis. For the monoterpene-derived sCIs, the relative rate coefficients k(loss) / k(sCI + SO2) were in the range (2.0–2.4) × 1012 molecules cm−3 and nearly independent of the relative humidity. This fact points to a minor importance of the sCI + H2O reaction in the case of the sCI arising from α-pinene and limonene. For the isoprene sCIs, however, the ratio k(loss) / k(sCI + SO2) was strongly dependent on the relative humidity. To explore whether sCIs could have a more general role in atmospheric oxidation, we investigated as an example the reactivity of acetone oxide (sCI from the ozonolysis of 2,3-dimethyl-2-butene) toward small organic acids, i.e. formic and acetic acid. Acetone oxide was found to react faster with the organic acids than with SO2; k(sCI + acid) / k(sCI + SO2) = (2.8 ± 0.3) for formic acid, and k(sCI + acid) / k(sCI + SO2) = (3.4 ± 0.2) for acetic acid. This finding indicates that sCIs can play a role in the formation and loss of other atmospheric constituents besides SO2.

The Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) is evaluated against atmospheric observations of aerosol number concentrations. The model is extended to include an explicit mechanism for new particle formation and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic precursors. Three nucleation mechanisms are included in NorESM: binary sulfuric acid, activation type, and organic nucleation. Ten model experiments are conducted to study the sensitivity of the simulated aerosol number concentrations to nucleation, SOA formation, black carbon size distribution and model meteorology. Simulated vertical profiles are evaluated against 12 flight campaigns. Comparison of monthly averaged aerosol number concentrations against 60 measurement sites reveals that the model with explicit nucleation and SOA scheme performs well in terms of correlation coefficient, R2 = 0.41 and a bias of −6%. NorESM generally overestimates the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, possibly due to underestimated sinks or exaggerated sensitivity to biogenic precursors.

Although mineral aerosol (dust) particles are irregular in shape, they are treated as homogeneous spheres in climate model radiative transfer calculations. Here, we test the effect of dust particle non-sphericity in the ECHAM5.5-HAM2 global aerosol-climate model. The short-wave optical properties of the two insoluble dust modes in HAM2 are modelled using an ensemble of spheroids that has been optimized to reproduce the optical properties of dust-like aerosols, thereby providing a significant improvement over spheres. First, the direct radiative effects (DRE) of dust non-sphericity were evaluated diagnostically, by comparing spheroids with both volume-equivalent and volume-to-area (V/A) equivalent spheres. In the volume-equivalent case, the short-wave DRE of insoluble dust at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) was slightly smaller (typically by 3-4%) for spheroidal than for spherical dust particles. This rather small difference stems from compensating non-sphericity effects on the dust optical thickness and asymmetry parameter. In the V/A-equivalent case, the difference in optical thickness was virtually eliminated and the DRE at the TOA (surface) was approximate to 20% (approximate to 13%) smaller for spheroids than for spheres, due to a larger asymmetry parameter. Even then, however, the global-mean DRE of non-sphericity was only 0.055 W m(-2) at the TOA and 0.070 W m(-2) at the surface. Subsequently, the effects of dust non-sphericity were tested interactively in simulations in which ECHAM5.5-HAM2 was coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Consistent with the rather small radiative effects noted above, the climatic differences from simulations with spherical dust optics were generally negligible.

The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from −1.0 W m−2 to −1.6 W m−2 when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m−2 to +1.4 W m−2. Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of −0.1 W m−2 (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100) and −0.5 W m−2 (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100). With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.

Article, The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to investigate changes in the aerosol burden and aerosol radiative effects in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios were applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the results were compared against the reference year 2005. Two of the scenarios are based on current legislation reductions: one shows the maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical measures, and the other is targeted to short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). We have analyzed the results in terms of global means and additionally focused on eight subregions. Based on our results, aerosol burdens show an overall decreasing trend as they basically follow the changes in primary and precursor emissions. However, in some locations, such as India, the burdens could increase significantly. The declining emissions have an impact on the clear-sky direct aerosol effect (DRE), i.e. the cooling effect. The DRE could decrease globally 0.06–0.4 W m−2 by 2030 with some regional increases, for example, over India (up to 0.84 W m−2). The global changes in the DRE depend on the scenario and are smallest in the targeted SLCF simulation. The aerosol indirect radiative effect could decline 0.25–0.82 W m−2 by 2030. This decrease takes place mostly over the oceans, whereas the DRE changes are greatest over the continents. Our results show that targeted emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due to the radiative effects associated with aerosol–cloud interactions., published version, http://purl.org/eprint/status/PeerReviewed