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The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters in China has caused huge losses to agriculture. Risk assessment serves as a bridge from disaster crisis management to disaster risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a refined comprehensive risk assessment of meteorological disasters in typical areas. However, several limitations remain in the disaster loss risk research, such as too coarse resolution and too single risk indicator. Additionally, less research has examined geographical information on risk clustering and barycenter migration, as well as temporal information on the sustainability of trends. Consequently, it is significant to unearth the geographical and temporal information on disaster loss and identify the refined spatial and temporal evolution pattern of crop risk. For this reason, we evaluated the risk of corn production in Gansu Province. First, based on maize yield data, a risk evaluation index system was constructed using the characteristics of variation trends, fluctuations, and extreme values of disaster losses. Then, the spatial distribution patterns and temporal evolution characteristics of maize production risks on a county scale in Gansu Province were determined using spatial analysis and climate diagnosis technology. The results show that there is a large interdecadal fluctuation in risk. In the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, the average yield reduction rates of maize in Gansu Province were −11.8%, −12.6%, −8.7%, and −8.5%, and the proportions of counties with severe yield reduction were 34.8%, 44.4%, 20.8%, and 9.7%, respectively. Second, most counties belong to medium-low or low-risk areas for maize production. High-risk counties are primarily located in eastern and southern Gansu, whereas low-risk counties are mostly found along the Hexi Corridor. Third, most risk indicators exhibit some geographical aggregation. The Jiuquan region falls within the low-low-risk aggregation zone. In contrast, the Qingyang region is a high-high aggregation zone with a gradual expansion trend. Four, each risk indicator's geographical barycenter migrates over a complicated path, but the direction and distance vary considerably. The comprehensive risk migrates along the south-northwest-southeast trajectory, albeit at a shorter distance. Five, the proportion of counties with a medium, medium-severe, severe, and total yield reduction tended to decline. In addition, the annual precipitation is significantly or very significantly correlated with most risk indicators and the comprehensive risk level. The results can guide agricultural production processes at all levels, as well as government disaster prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) after open spine surgery increases healthcare costs and patient morbidity. Predictive analytics using large databases can be used to develop prediction tools to aid surgeons in identifying high-risk patients and strategies for optimization. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an SSI risk-assessment score for patients undergoing open spine surgery. Methods: The Premier Healthcare Database of adult open spine surgery patients (n = 157,664; 2,650 SSIs) was used to create an SSI risk scoring system using mixed effects logistic regression modeling. Full and reduced multilevel logistic regression models were developed using patient, surgery or facility predictors. The full model used 38 predictors and the reduced used 16 predictors. The resulting risk score was the sum of points assigned to 16 predictors. Results: The reduced model showed good discriminatory capability (C-statistic = 0.75) and good fit of the model ([Pearson Chi-square/DF] = 0.90, CAIC=25,517) compared to the full model (C-statistic = 0.75, [Pearson Chi-square/DF] =0.90, CAIC=25,578). The risk scoring system, based on the reduced model, included the following: female (5 points), hypertension (4), blood disorder (8), peripheral vascular disease (9), chronic pulmonary disease (6), rheumatic disease (16), obesity (12), nicotine dependence (5), Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 per point), revision surgery (14), number of ICD-10 procedures (1 per procedure), operative time (1 per hour), and emergency/urgent surgery (12). A final risk score as the sum of the points for each surgery was validated using a 1,000-surgery random hold-out (independent from the study cohort) sample (C-statistic = 0.77). Conclusions: The resulting SSI risk score composed of readily obtainable clinical information could serve as a strong prediction tool for SSI in preoperative settings when open spine surgery is considered.

The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters in China has caused huge losses to agriculture. Risk assessment serves as a bridge from disaster crisis management to disaster risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a refined comprehensive risk assessment of meteorological disasters in typical areas. However, several limitations remain in the disaster loss risk research, such as too coarse resolution and too single risk indicator. Additionally, less research has examined geographical information on risk clustering and barycenter migration, as well as temporal information on the sustainability of trends. Consequently, it is significant to unearth the geographical and temporal information on disaster loss and identify the refined spatial and temporal evolution pattern of crop risk. For this reason, we evaluated the risk of corn production in Gansu Province. First, based on maize yield data, a risk evaluation index system was constructed using the characteristics of variation trends, fluctuations, and extreme values of disaster losses. Then, the spatial distribution patterns and temporal evolution characteristics of maize production risks on a county scale in Gansu Province were determined using spatial analysis and climate diagnosis technology. The results show that there is a large interdecadal fluctuation in risk. In the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, the average yield reduction rates of maize in Gansu Province were −11.8%, −12.6%, −8.7%, and −8.5%, and the proportions of counties with severe yield reduction were 34.8%, 44.4%, 20.8%, and 9.7%, respectively. Second, most counties belong to medium-low or low-risk areas for maize production. High-risk counties are primarily located in eastern and southern Gansu, whereas low-risk counties are mostly found along the Hexi Corridor. Third, most risk indicators exhibit some geographical aggregation. The Jiuquan region falls within the low-low-risk aggregation zone. In contrast, the Qingyang region is a high-high aggregation zone with a gradual expansion trend. Four, each risk indicator’s geographical barycenter migrates over a complicated path, but the direction and distance vary considerably. The comprehensive risk migrates along the south-northwest-southeast trajectory, albeit at a shorter distance. Five, the proportion of counties with a medium, medium-severe, severe, and total yield reduction tended to decline. In addition, the annual precipitation is significantly or very significantly correlated with most risk indicators and the comprehensive risk level. The results can guide agricultural production processes at all levels, as well as government disaster prevention.

In the transition to a sustainable society, many new technologies and materials are developed. These often have disadvantages, examples thereof with a sustainability claim that entailed risks to public health are identified. Risk Governance should ideally address and deal with those potential risks. However, governance mechanisms to efficiently deal with these risks seem to be lacking. In this study, the Risk Governance in the lifecycle of three innovative bio-based plastic food contact materials (FCMs) were evaluated. Interviews were conducted with representatives of all stages in the lifecycle to identify risk management strategies to prevent or control public health risk. Experts were asked to share their views on the identified strategies. Nineteen different risk management strategies have been identified from the three case studies and compared with the principles of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework and showed that less than 50% corresponded to those of the IRGC framework. In addition, eighteen randomly sampled bio-based FCMs were chemically analysed to get insight in the presence of potentially hazardous substances. The presence of hazardous chemicals in the bio-based FCMs provide indications of potential chemical health risks. Apparently, there is no structural application of risk governance in the three bio-based FCM studied. Strategies are applied to manage public health risks, but these are usually implemented too limited to effectively manage the identified risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basel III features requirements on bank capital and liquidity along with disclosure requirements. I study these prudential tools by developing a general equilibrium model with bank runs in a global game framework, where leverage, liquidity, interest rates, and the probability of a banking crisis are all determined endogenously. With timely disclosure about bank assets, the unregulated economy has efficient liquidity but excessive leverage due to a pecuniary externality, warranting a leverage restriction. Delayed disclosure gives rise to bank risk shifting, making leverage even more excessive and liquidity insufficient, which warrants joint requirements on leverage and liquidity. Empirical predictions and policy implications are derived and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Flood detention zones (FDZ) can temporarily store extra floodwaters and reduce risk. • Conflicts emerge as population growth renders the FDZ use difficult. • Policy addresses the conflicts through massive relocation, adaptive farming, and giving "Room for the River". • Mixed methods shows that information and financial gaps reduce the policy feasibility. • Proposed solutions includes a public-private partnership involving FDZ service payment. Land resources can accommodate extra floodwaters, thus playing an important role in integrated flood risk management (FRM). However, potential conflicts emerge as the lands that are used as temporal room for floodwaters are also home to human beings, which is common in the flood detention zones (FDZs) in China. To date, little is known about how Chinese policies address the conflicts and how local stakeholders perceive the policies. This paper aims to address this research gap using a case study of the FDZs in the middle Huaihe River, China. A mixed method is applied including an official document survey, a multi-layer interview (15 respondents), and questionnaires (123 respondents). We find that three major strategies are employed to enhance the flood detention function and reduce flood risk inside the FDZs: 1) returning parts of the FDZs to rivers; 2) flood-adaptive farming; and 3) reducing population density via a massive relocation. However, the local residents have a low engagement willingness, which are associated with a poor perception of the policies and a lack of short-term economic attractiveness. Policy delivery gaps thus exist. Information sharing should be enhanced to encourage public participation. A public-private partnership involving more social and financial resources, particularly including the downstream beneficiaries, could help to increase the policy's economic feasibility. The findings can enrich a policy shift toward a more land-based FRM, particularly in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In 2002 an incident trend in Air Traffic Management in a European Centre was analysed from a Human Factors perspective, and a single solution was developed, which stopped the incidents occurring. Three years later a new incident trend appeared, which upon analysis appeared to be a more complex version of the former pattern. This required a more comprehensive analysis as well as a more co-ordinated and systemic approach to reduction. In the end, nine recommendations were made, of which more than half were implemented. The incidents stopped. This case study is used to highlight the issue of risk migration in the context of incident analysis and reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a common experience that attempts to mitigate a risk lead to new risks, and that risks formerly thought to be of one kind become another kind as technical knowledge evolves. This phenomenon of risk migration suggests that we should take processes over time, rather than specific risks or specific technologies, as a unit of analysis. Several of our existing models of the social management of risks—such as that of social risk amplification—are process models of a kind but are still oriented around the playing out of a particular event or issue. A case study of risk in a group of flame-retardant compounds was used as the basis of a grounded, exploratory analysis of migration processes, the phenomena that influence them, and their consequences. This illustrated how migration naturally occurs from risks that are understood, in which risk bearers have at least some agency, to risks that are not understood and not capable of being influenced by risk bearers. It illustrated how the simultaneous improvement in measuring technology, which detects potential toxins at increasingly small concentrations, combines with intuitive models that ignore concentration to produce conditions likely to generate anxiety. And it illustrated how pressure groups and commercial interests exploit this effect. It also showed how migration makes precautionary action problematic, and how more generally it tends to undermine a society's capacity to cope with risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]