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Background: The study estimated the excess mortality after long-term sickness absence (LTSA), and identified socio-demographic and diagnostic risk factors of death., Methods: Prospective cohort study during 1994-2003 in a Norwegian county with 256,654 inhabitants aged 16-62 years. A representative sample of 3386 persons with a spell of sickness absence >8 weeks was compared with the total county population with respect to all cause mortality. Comparative mortality figures (CMF) for the total sample and standardized mortality rates for diagnostic groups were calculated., Results: The CMFs were 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) for the female and 2.0 (95% CI 1.7-2.4) for the male sample. Among women, persons' sickness certified with cancer contributed with 43% of all deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) was 16.1 (11.2-23.2). The respective figure for the men was 27% and SMR was 8.0 (5.7-11.1). SMR for men with mental diagnoses was 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.9) and for 'other' (respiratory, neurological, digestive) 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.7). Musculoskeletal cases had not elevated SMRs. Cox proportional hazard analysis with musculoskeletal cases as reference adjusted for age and income showed very high hazard ratios (HR) for cases with cancer diagnoses. Among the men, mental and 'other' diagnoses had also HR above unity., Conclusion: The study verified findings from Finland and the UK of excess mortality after LTSA, also when compared with the total population of the same age. Among women, cancer cases explained all the excess mortality, whereas other cases outside the musculoskeletal group also contributed among men.

Sickness absence certified with psychiatric diagnoses is increasing in many Western countries. A substantial proportion of the sickness absentees never return to work, but ends up with a permanent disability pension (DP). This study investigated the incidence of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) with different psychiatric diagnoses, and tested predictors of the transition to permanent DP. A special objective was to explore previously reported gender differences, using a population-based cohort study. The population at risk of LTSA was 106,674 occupational active men and 89,356 women in a Norwegian county in 1994; 314 women and 203 men with LTSA >8 weeks, certified with a psychiatric diagnosis, were followed to the end of 1999, with DP as the endpoint. Diagnoses on sickness certificates, age, gender and income were used as explanatory variables in Cox regression analysis. Annual incidence of LTSA with a psychiatric diagnosis was 7.0/1000/year for women and 3.8/1000 for men; 72% of the women and 50% of the men had a diagnosis indicating depression. During follow-up, 32% of the men and 25% of the women obtained DP. Increasing age, male gender, low income and a diagnosis of psychosis or "other" increased the DP risk. Separate analysis for men indicated a different effect of age and a larger role of serious mental illness. The study verified that women more often than men had LTSA with psychiatric diagnoses, especially with depression. Men were at higher risk of transition to DP, and the study suggested some possible explanations.

Background: In the late 1990s the incidence of new disability pensioners in Norway increased, especially among young people. This study assessed the risk and possible predictors of a transition to disability among long-term sickness absentees below 40., Material and Methods: The study was carried out in a county with 10 % of Norway's population. All new long-term (i.e. more than 8 weeks) sickness absentees below 40 years over a six-month period in 1994 were included and followed up until year-end 1999. Socio-demographic and medical information were used as independent variables in Cox regression analysis with disability as the outcome variable., Results: The five-year risk of disability was 7.9 % (95 % CI 5.8 % - 10.0 %) for men and 10.3 % (95 % CI 8.5 % - 13.1 %) for women. Among young persons on long-term sickness absence with psychiatric diagnoses the rate of disability was 24 % (95 % CI 15 - 33 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 6 - 16 %) for women. In musculoskeletal disorders the risk of disability was 5 % (95 % CI 3 - 7 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 8 - 14 %) for women. Women had higher rates of disability among all subgroups of musculoskeletal disorders. Regression analysis showed no gender effect. The following variables increased the risk of disability pension: psychiatric diagnosis (only for men), low income (both genders), increasing age (only women) and previous long-term absence (only for men)., Interpretation: A moderate risk of disability pension was found among young people on long-term sick leave. Special interventions targeted at men with psychiatric diagnoses and women with musculoskeletal disorders should be considered.

Background: While several socio-demographic predictors of disability pension (DP) have been identified, less is known about the importance of the medical aspects., Methods: A representative sample of Norwegian long-term sickness absentees, 2043 women and 1585 men, with detailed diagnostic information based on the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC) was followed up for 5 years. The date of granting DP was obtained from the Norwegian DP-register and used as the dependent variable in Cox multivariate regression analysis. Medical and socio-demographic factors were entered as explanatory variables., Results: Kaplan-Meier estimates of the 5 year risk of DP were 22.9% for the full sample, 22.5% for men and 23.3% for the women. Men on sick leave for mental health disorders had an increased disability risk. Except for pregnancy-related cases, which carried a very low risk for future DP, there was no significant difference between the main diagnostic groups among women. Previous sickness absence increased the disability risk but was significant only for total absence above 20 weeks in the 4 years preceding inclusion. Age was the strongest predictor of future DP. Increasing income decreased the risk, bur not linearly. Unemployment status in the year preceding inclusion increased disability risk for women, but not for men. Among cases with musculoskeletal disorders (54.5% of the sample), subgroups with different disability risks were identified in Cox' regression analysis, with a gender-specific pattern., Conclusion: In addition to previously known socio-demographic predictors, medical variables were important in identifying sickness absentees with an increased risk of DP.

Background: In Norway, doctors must provide the National Health Insurance (NIS) with a special medical certificate if a sick-leave exceeds eight weeks. The aim of this study was to evaluate this medical information in relation to the NIS criteria for further sickness benefits and the usefulness of the certificate in assessing the need for early rehabilitative and vocational initiatives., Material and Methods: 2,237 consecutive eight-week medical certificates submitted to 21 NIS offices in the county of Hordaland in 1994 were independently evaluated by the NIS officer and the NIS medical consultant in a questionnaire survey., Results: Both evaluators found sufficient medical information in the vast majority of medical certificates, though in about 12% of the cases the medical criteria for further benefits were not sufficiently documented. In less than 10% of the cases, active rehabilitative or vocational measures were called for at this point in time. However, there was a rather low degree of consensus between the NIS officer and the medical consultant about in which cases supplementary information or active measures were warranted., Interpretation: We conclude that the eight-week medical certificate usually contains enough medical information but is of limited use in assessing the need for active intervention by the NIS. Supplementary information from the absentee and the employer should be collected at an early stage of the sick leave.

Background: The increasing prevalence of disability pensioning in Norway has led to several attempts at strengthening the proactive role of the National Insurance System (NIS) in cases of long-term sick-listing. Since 1988, a special medical certificate is required after eight weeks of sick-leave. The aim of this study was to examine whether systematic evaluation of this medical certificate by NIS officers and NIS medical consultants could reduce future health insurance expenditure., Material and Methods: In 1994 a randomised study using a paired design of the NIS local offices in the county of Hordaland was undertaken. All eight-week medical certificates in the intervention group (N = 2,237) were systematically reviewed, whereas standard routines were used for the control group (N = 1,764)., Results: After three years, no significant differences were observed between the two groups in health insurance utilisation., Interpretation: We conclude that local NIS offices are unable to use the information in the eight-week sick notes to effectively influence future utilisation of health insurance. The reason may be that NIS offices lack the skills necessary for early intervention in long-term sick-listing.