Search

In 2021, the world marked 10 years free from rinderpest. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and World Organisation for Animal Health have since made great strides in consolidating, sequencing, and destroying stocks of rinderpest virus-containing material, currently kept by only 14 known institutions. This progress must continue.

Rinderpest, the most dreaded disease of cattle, originated as far back as the domestication of cattle, occurring in Asia more than 10,000 years ago. It has been the main preoccupation of Veterinary Service activities for many centuries and was the major motivation for establishing the first veterinary school in Lyon, France, in 1761. Gaining control of the disease was the impetus for the founding of many regional and international organisations (including the World Organisation for Animal Health). Outbreaks of rinderpest have led to food shortages and starvation, economic losses and poverty, social unrest, and disrupted transport networks in regions where agriculture was dependent on draught cattle. The rinderpest virus, causative agent of the disease, has also been used as a biological weapon in the past. Many regional rinderpest eradication campaigns have been implemented, including Joint Project 15; the Pan-African Rinderpest Campaign (PARC); the South Asia Rinderpest Eradication Campaign; the West Asia Rinderpest Eradication Campaign; and the Pan African Programme for the Control of Epizootics. All of these campaigns were supported by regional and international organisations, and the disease was finally eradicated in 2011. The benefit of PARC in terms of the value of avoided losses in cattle products due to the decrease in the disease's occurrence was estimated to be between 581,000 and 35,433,000 European currency units. Currently, the world is prepared to prevent the deliberate or accidental release of the remaining infectious rinderpest virus material which exists in research and diagnostic facilities across the world.

Scholarship on the Tanzanian Rinderpest epizootic of the 1890s has assumed that German colonizers understood from the start that they were confronting the same disease that had afflicted Eurasia for centuries. Outward indicators of the epizootic, known locally as sadoka, especially wildlife destruction, were unknown in Europe, leading German veterinarians to doubt that the African disease was Rinderpest. Financial constraints and conflicting development agendas, especially tension between ranching and pastoralism, deterred early colonial applications of veterinary science that might have led to an early diagnosis. European veterinarians, guarding their authority against medical researchers, opposed inoculation therapies in the case of Rinderpest in favor of veterinary policing despite recent breakthroughs in vaccine research. The virus was not identified before reaching South Africa in 1896, but this breakthrough had little influence on policy in East Africa. Yet emergent international disease conventions directed at bubonic plague entangled with veterinary policy in East Africa.

This study clarifies the causes of the repetitive occurrences of such phenomena as rinderpest, epidemic, famine, and tiger disasters recorded in the Joseon Dynasty Chronicle and the Seungjeongwon Journals in the period of great catastrophe, the late 17th century in which the great Gyeongsin famine (1670~1671) and the great Eulbyeong famine (1695~1696) occurred, from the perspective that they were biological exchanges caused by the new arrival of rinderpest in the early 17th century. It is an objection to the achievements by existing studies which suggest that the great catastrophes occurring in the late 17th century are evidence of phenomena in a little ice age. First of all, rinderpest has had influence on East Asia as it had been spread from certain areas in Machuria in May 1636 through Joseon, where it raged throughout the nation, and then to the west part of Japan. The new arrival of rinderpest was indigenized in Joseon, where it was localized and spread periodically while it was adjusted to changes in the population of cattle with immunity in accordance with their life spans and reproduction rates. As the new rinderpest, which showed high pathogenicity in the early 17th century, was indigenized with its high mortality and continued until the late 17th century, it broke out periodically in general. Contrastively, epidemics like smallpox and measles that were indigenized as routine ones had occurred constantly from far past times. As a result, the rinderpest, which tried a new indigenization, and the human epidemics, which had been already indigenized long ago, were unexpectedly overlapped in their breakout, and hence great changes were noticed in the aspects of the human casualty due to epidemics. The outbreak of rinderpest resulted in famine due to lack of farming cattle, and the famine caused epidemics among people. The casualty of the human population due to the epidemics in turn led to negligence of farming cattle, which constituted factors that triggered rage and epidemics of rinderpest. The more the number of sources of infection and hosts with low immunity increased, the more lost human resources and farming cattle were lost, which led to a great famine. The periodic outbreak of the rinderpester along with the routine prevalence of various epidemics in the 17thcentury also had influenced on domestic and wild animals. Due to these phenomenon, full-fledged famines occurred that were incomparable with earlier ones. The number of domestic animals that were neglected by people who, faced with famines, were not able to take care of them was increased, and this might have brought about the rage of epidemics like rinderpest in domestic animals like cattle. The great Gyeongsin and Eulbyeong famines due to reoccurrence of the rinderpest in the late 17th century linked rinderpester, epidemics and great famines so that they interacted with each other. Furthermore, the recurring cycle of epidemics-famines-rinderpest-great famines constituted a great cycle with synergy, which resulted in eco-economic-historical great catastrophes accompanied by large scale casualties. Therefore, the Gyeongsin and Eulbyeong famines occurring in the late 17th century can be treated as events caused by the repetition of various periodic disastrous factors generated in 1670~1671 and in 1695~1696 respectively, and particularly as phenomena caused by biological exchanges based on rinderpester., rather than as little ice age phenomena due to relatively long term temperature lowering.

Now that we are in the rinderpest post-eradication era, attention is focused on the risk of re-introduction. A semi-quantitative risk assessment identified accidental use of rinderpest virus in laboratories as the most likely cause of re-introduction. However there is little data available on the rates of laboratory biosafety breakdowns in general. In addition, any predictions based on past events are subject to various uncertainties. The aims of this study were therefore to investigate the potential usefulness of historical data for predicting the future risk of rinderpest release via laboratory biosafety breakdowns, and to investigate the impacts of the various uncertainties on these predictions. Data were collected using a worldwide online survey of laboratories, a structured search of ProMED reports and discussion with experts. A stochastic model was constructed to predict the number of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest that will occur over the next 10 years, based on: (1) the historical rate of biosafety breakdowns; and (2) the change in the number of laboratories that will have rinderpest virus in the next 10 years compared to historically. The search identified five breakdowns, all of which occurred during 1970-2000 and all of which were identified via discussions with experts. Assuming that our search for historical events had a sensitivity of over 60% and there has been at least a 40% reduction in the underlying risk (attributable to decreased laboratory activity post eradication) the most likely number of biosafety events worldwide was estimated to be zero over a 10 year period. However, the risk of at least one biosafety breakdown remains greater than 1 in 10,000 unless the sensitivity was at least 99% or the number of laboratories has decreased by at least 99% (based on 2000-2010 during which there were no biosafety breakdowns)., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Rinderpest was a devastating disease of livestock responsible for continent-wide famine and poverty. Centuries of veterinary advances culminated in 2011 with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health declaring global eradication of rinderpest; only the second disease to be eradicated and the greatest veterinary achievement of our time. Conventional control measures, principally mass vaccination combined with zoosanitary procedures, led to substantial declines in the incidence of rinderpest. However, during the past decades, innovative strategies were deployed for the last mile to overcome diagnostic and surveillance challenges, unanticipated variations in virus pathogenicity, circulation of disease in wildlife populations and to service remote and nomadic communities in often-unstable states. This review provides an overview of these challenges, describes how they were overcome and identifies key factors for this success.

We address the interaction of ecological processes, such as consumer-resource relationships and competition, and the epidemiology of infectious diseases spreading in ecosystems. Modelling such interactions seems essential to understand the dynamics of infectious agents in communities consisting of interacting host and non-host species. We show how the usual epidemiological next-generation matrix approach to characterize invasion into multi-host communities can be extended to calculate R₀, and how this relates to the ecological community matrix. We then present two simple examples to illustrate this approach. The first of these is a model of the rinderpest, wildebeest, grass interaction, where our inferred dynamics qualitatively matches the observed phenomena that occurred after the eradication of rinderpest from the Serengeti ecosystem in the 1980s. The second example is a prey-predator system, where both species are hosts of the same pathogen. It is shown that regions for the parameter values exist where the two host species are only able to coexist when the pathogen is present to mediate the ecological interaction.

In 2011, the 79th General Session of the World Assembly of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the 37th Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAD) Conference adopted a resolution declaring the world free from rinderpest and recommending follow-up measures to preserve the benefits of this new and hard-won situation. Eradication is an achievable objective for any livestock disease, provided that the epidemiology is uncomplicated and the necessary tools, resources and policies are available. Eradication at a national level inevitably reflects national priorities, whereas global eradication requires a level of international initiative and leadership to integrate these tools into a global framework, aimed first at suppressing transmission across all infected areas and concluding with a demonstration thatthis has been achieved. With a simple transmission chain and the environmental fragility of the virus, rinderpest has always been open to control and even eradication within a zoosanitary approach. However, in the post-1945 drive for more productive agriculture, national and global vaccination programmes became increasingly relevant and important. As rinderpest frequently spread from one region to another through trade-related livestock movements, the key to global eradication was to ensure that such vaccination programmes were carried out in a synchronised manner across all regions where the disease was endemic - an objective to which the European Union, the United States Agency for International Development, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the African Union-Interafrican Bureau of Animal Resources, FA0 and OIE fully subscribed. This article provides a review of rinderpest eradication, from the seminal work carried out by Giovanni Lancisi in the early 18th Century to the global declaration in 2011.

Rinderpest is only the second infectious disease to have been globally eradicated. In the final stages of eradication, the virus was entrenched in pastoral areas of the Greater Horn of Africa, a region with weak governance, poor security, and little infrastructure that presented profound challenges to conventional control methods. Although the eradication process was a development activity rather than scientific research, its success owed much to several seminal research efforts in vaccine development and epidemiology and showed what scientific decision-making and management could accomplish with limited resources. The keys to success were the development of a thermostable vaccine and the application of participatory epidemiological techniques that allowed veterinary personnel to interact at a grassroots level with cattle herders to more effectively target control measures.

In 2011 the Food and Agriculture Organization formally announced that rinderpest was eradicated from the globe. Rinderpest virus had long been associated with huge disease outbreaks among cattle. The disease not only had a devastating effect on cattle herds world-wide, but also on human populations that depended on them. Rinderpest virus - a member of the genus Morbillivirus of the family Paramyxoviridae - is a close relative of measles virus. Both viruses are highly infectious and share many other biological properties. Although no formal goal or timeframe has been set, plans are currently being developed to eradicate measles. Here, we discuss how lessons learned from the global eradication of rinderpest may help in the future eradication of measles., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Until the middle of the 19th century, very few references exist regarding the occurrence of animal diseases in Namibia. With the introduction of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in 1859, this picture changed completely and livestock owners implemented various forms of disease control in an effort to contain the spread of this disease and minimise its devastating effects. After the establishment of the colonial administration in 1884, the first animal disease legislation was introduced in 1887 and the first veterinarian, Dr Wilhelm Rickmann, arrived in 1894. CBPP and the outbreak of rinderpest in 1897 necessitated a greatly expanded veterinary infrastructure and the first veterinary laboratory was erected at Gammams near Windhoek in 1897. To prevent the spread of rinderpest, a veterinary cordon line was established, which was the very beginning of the Veterinary Cordon Fence as it is known today. After the First World War, a small but dedicated corps of veterinarians again built up an efficient animal health service in the following decades, with veterinary private practice developing from the mid-1950s. The veterinary profession organised itself in 1947 in the form of a veterinary association and, in 1984, legislation was passed to regulate the veterinary profession by the establishment of the Veterinary Council of Namibia. The outbreak of foot and mouth disease in 1961 was instrumental in the creation of an effective veterinary service, meeting international veterinary standards of quality and performance which are still maintained today.

The fight against epizootics is today better organized. The tools, methods and strategies used work well and are constantly being improved, which is necessary since disease epidemiology is evolving extremely fast, dominated by a growing complexity associated to global changes and the emergence of new pathologies. The foundation of the strategy is still based on a permanent epidemiological surveillance and the immediate use of appropriate measures. Among the essential prerequisites there is the existence of effective veterinary services, for which support programmes have been developed, notably by the OIE, which is also responsible for the definition of the norms applicable in animal health. Three examples of control programmes against major epidemics are discussed here: Rinderpest (declared eradicated worldwide in 2011), Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1), and Foot and Mouth Disease., (Copyright © 2012 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.)

Long regarded as the major disease of cattle, rinderpest is now eradicated. It was inflicting from 60 to 90% mortality on livestock. Installed in Asia, it arrived in France in waves, but never became endemic there. Four outbreaks of rinderpest hit the country during the eighteenth century. Their geographical extension has been reconstituted. They forced the State to devise the consistent set of health actions the nineteenth century benefited before the advent of microbiology., (Copyright © 2012 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.)

Eradication can be defined as permanent elimination of the occurrence of a given infectious disease. A joint FAO/OIE announcement of global rinderpest eradication was declared in 2011. The announcement from two international organizations indicates that the rinderpest virus, like the smallpox virus, will remain only in authorized laboratories. After rinderpest eradication, the relevant researchers shifted their focus on next target-peste des petits ruminants, since they mostly share similarities in such characteristics as etiology and pathology. This paper, on the one hand, analyzed objective and subjective factors in global rinderpest eradication, and on the other hand, reviewed the pros and cons of global peste des petits ruminants eradication.

This paper describes the demise of rinderpest, focussing on the 20th Century and especially the period of the Global Rinderpest Eradication Programme, before proceeding to describe the process of accreditation of rinderpest freedom which is now virtually complete., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3,000 to 30,000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls.

A cross-sectional sero-survey, using a two-stage cluster sampling design, was conducted between 2002 and 2003 in ten administrative regions of central and southern Somalia, to estimate the seroprevalence and geographic distribution of rinderpest (RP) in the study area, as well as to identify potential risk factors for the observed seroprevalence distribution. The study was also used to test the feasibility of the spatially integrated investigation technique in nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoral systems. In the absence of a systematic list of livestock holdings, the primary sampling units were selected by generating random map coordinates. A total of 9,216 serum samples were collected from cattle aged 12 to 36 months at 562 sampling sites. Two apparent clusters of RP seroprevalence were detected. Four potential risk factors associated with the observed seroprevalence were identified: the mobility of cattle herds, the cattle population density, the proximity of cattle herds to cattle trade routes and cattle herd size. Risk maps were then generated to assist in designing more targeted surveillance strategies. The observed seroprevalence in these areas declined over time. In subsequent years, similar seroprevalence studies in neighbouring areas of Kenya and Ethiopia also showed a very low seroprevalence of RP or the absence of antibodies against RP. The progressive decline in RP antibody prevalence is consistent with virus extinction. Verification of freedom from RP infection in the Somali ecosystem is currently in progress.

Background: In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest., Results: A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia., Conclusions: The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of disease surveillance and control activities for rinderpest in Somalia. The methodology applied here, involving spatial and network parameters, could also be applied to other diseases and/or species as part of a standardized approach for the design of risk-based surveillance activities in nomadic pastoral settings.

With few exceptions, the diseases that present the greatest risk to food animal production have been largely similar throughout the modern era of veterinary medicine. The current trend regarding the ever-increasing globalization of the trade of animals and animal products ensures that agricultural diseases will continue to follow legal and illegal trade patterns with increasing rapidity. Global climate changes have already had profound effects on the distribution of animal diseases, and it is an inevitable reality that continually evolving climatic parameters will further transform the ecology of numerous pathogens. In recent years, many agricultural diseases have given cause for concern regarding changes in distribution or severity. Foot-and-mouth disease, avian influenza, and African swine fever continue to cause serious problems. The expected announcement of the global eradication of rinderpest is one of the greatest successes of veterinary preventative medicine, yet the closely related disease peste des petits ruminants still spreads throughout the Middle East and Asia. The spread of novel strains of bluetongue virus across Europe is an ominous indicator that climate change is sure to influence trends in movement of agricultural diseases. Overall, veterinary practitioners and investigators are advised to not only maintain vigilance against the staple disease threats but to always be sufficiently broad-minded to expect the unexpected.

Monoclonal antibody-based competitive ELISA (C-ELISA) has been used for the specific measurement of antibodies to peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses in sheep, goats, cattle and buffalo. Serum samples from sheep (n = 232), goats (n = 428), cattle (n = 43), buffalo (n = 89) were tested. The animals had not been vaccinated against rinderpest or PPR. Findings suggested that the sero-positive cases were significantly higher in sheep (51.29%) than in goats (39.02%) (P = 0.002). The overall sero-prevalence of PPRV in small ruminants was 43.33%. The PPR antibodies seroprevalence was 67.42% in buffalo and 41.86% in cattle which was significantly higher in buffalo (P = 0.005). The overall sero-prevalence of PPRV in large ruminants was 59.09%. Cattle and buffalo sera showed a high prevalence of antibody against PPR virus which may explain the difficulty experienced in achieving high post-vaccination immunity levels against rinderpest. Because antibodies against PPR virus are both cross-neutralizing and cross-protective against rinderpest virus, further vaccination in the presence of antibodies against PPR virus may be a waste of national resources. It was also suggested that antibodies to PPR virus could prevent an immune response to the rinderpest vaccine. This paper presents serological evidence for the transmission of PPR virus from sheep and goats to cattle and buffalo and highlights the need to include PPR serology in the sero-monitoring programme to give a better indication of national herd immunity of sheep and goats against PPR.

The one-humped camel (Camelus dromedarius) was first introduced to German South West Africa (Namibia) for military purposes in 1889. Introductions to the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) in 1897 and Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) in 1903 were initially with a view to replacing oxen that died of rinderpest. Disease risks attendant on these introductions were recognised and to some extent guarded against. There were, however, relatively few problems. One camel was diagnosed as having foot-and-mouth disease. Mange in camels from India caused some concern as did trypanosomosis from Sudan. Trypanosomosis was introduced into both the Cape of Good Hope and Transvaal. Antibodies to some common livestock disease were found in later years.

The Civil Veterinary Service on Java, Netherlands East-Indies, was established in 1853, more than 20 years after the introduction of the Cultivation System. During the 19th century its tasks were directed at the survey of livestock, esp. its health. Despite the fact that the number of veterinarians was far from enough, the communications problematic, and the optimal functioning of the Service assailed by infrastructional shortcomings, the CVS managed to carry out--in a relatively short period--a great deal of significant work. The CVS sometimes misjudged the situation completely, e.g. after the outbreak of rinderpest in 1878, that was a major catastrophe. The Dutch laws pertaining to the fight against this diseases were enforced in the Netherlands East-Indies. Agriculture suffered from the ban on moving cattle, cattle suffered from a feed shortage and cattle owners suffered from financial and emotional damage. Although it is impossible to determine exactly the influence of the adopted measures on the course of the epizootic, there are indications that the damages were aggravated through governmental interference.

Between 1998 and 2005, the Regional Reference Laboratory at Bingerville (Ivory-Coast) received samples for analysis from Western and Central African countries. From a total of 606 sera; 65 tissue samples and 75 swabs received, no rinderpest virus or specific gene products or antibodies against rinderpest were detected. Use of the PCR on the tissue and swabs (total of 140 samples) identified the genomic presence of BVD (4/140), MCF (2/140), IBR (1/140) and FMD (6/140) viruses. These cause diseases that produce similar clinical signs to rinderpest. The quality of many samples sent to the reference laboratory did not meet the laboratory requirements and this compromised analysis of some specimens.

Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum.

Two previously unpublished manuscripts reveal how innovative the Austrian Low Countries were when they introduced an animal health policy to control rinderpest in 1769. The policy was novel in that it replaced the slaughter of individual sick animals with herd slaughter. Unfortunately, a number of neighbouring countries failed to emulate this sure-fire method of controlling rinderpest, among them France.

Eight hundred and thirty five serum samples collected from eight wild artiodactyl species in Kenya and Tanzania between 1982 and 1993 were tested for virus-neutralising (VN) antibodies to rinderpest (RP) virus. Antibodies were found in 116 of 344 buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) but not in the other species including 349 wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus). Most of the antibody positive buffaloes were from the Maasai Mara-Serengeti ecosystem (MM-SE) and would have had opportunity for exposure to the virus during the epidemic of rinderpest in buffalo confirmed there in 1982. Buffalo born after 1985 did not have antibody indicating that virus stopped circulating in this population at or around that time. This second demonstration that RP virus disappears from the MM-SE is further evidence that these species are not permanent reservoirs of this virus. Re-infection of wildlife is transient and they remain valuable sentinels for infection in nearby domestic livestock.

We report surveillance for rinderpest virus in wildlife populations in three major ecosystems of East Africa: Great Rift Valley, Somali and Tsavo from 1994 to 2003. Three hundred and eighty wild animals were sampled for detection of rinderpest virus, antigen or genome and 1133 sampled for antibody in sera from Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania from 20 species. This was done modifying for wildlife the internationally recommended standards for rinderpest investigation and diagnosis in livestock. The animals were selected according to susceptibility and preference given to gregarious species, and populations were selected according to abundance, availability and association with livestock. Rinderpest virus, antigen and/or genome were detected in Kenya; within Tsavo, Nairobi and Meru National Parks. Serological results from 864 animals (of which 65% were buffalo) from the region were selected as unequivocal; showing the temporal and spatial aspects of past epidemics. Recent infection has been only in or peripheral to the Somali ecosystem (in Kenya). Our evidence supports the hypothesis that wildlife is not important in the long-term maintenance of rinderpest and that wildlife are infected sporadically most likely from a cattle source, although this needs to be proven in the Somali ecosystem. Wildlife will continue to be a key to monitoring the remaining virus circulation in Africa.

This paper looks at the rippling effects of the first and last 1896 rinderpest outbreak that occurred in Zimbabwe. Following the devastating effects of this outbreak, the Department of Veterinary Services remains on full alert. We conclude that since there has been no outbreak of this pandemic, it is logical to assert that the veterinary services of this country are doing a sterling job, given that there are countries in Africa today where the disease is smoldering.

The authors provide a report on the surveillance of rinderpest virus (RPV) and peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) in the wildlife population in Côte d'Ivoire. For this purpose, 266 animals from nine different species, selected according to susceptibility and abundance, were captured and sampled from Comoé, Marahoué and Lamto Parks. Two hundred and forty seven sera and 214 nasal swabs were collected and analysed by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) techniques, respectively. Serological data demonstrated that RPV was not circulating within the national Parks and estimated the PPR seroprevalence to be less than 1%. The analysis of the nasal swabs revealed no cases of RPV infection, but PPRV infection was detected in four species, including buffalo. To minimise the cost of the study without affecting the sensitivity of the test, samples were pooled into different groups and submitted to RT-PCR using nucleoprotein gene specific primers. The RT-PCR used in this study, which was derived from the method developed by Couacy-Hymann et al. in 2002, was followed by a hybridisation step using internal specific probes to confirm the identity of the deoxyribonucleic acid product. When used in conjunction with a cELISA this method accurately demonstrated the absence of rinderpest viral persistence in Côte-d'Ivoire.

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).

This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis comparing four alternative intervention strategies for the control and eradication of rinderpest against a scenario of no intervention in a cattle population similar in size to that of Ethiopia. The interventions were three different coverage levels of mass vaccination and one surveillance-based programme where vaccination targeted infected sub-populations. For each scenario, the disease impact was estimated using an open-population, state-transition SEIR ('susceptible', 'exposed', 'infectious', 'recovered') disease transmission model with parameter estimates developed for lineage 1 rinderpest virus. Projected economic surplus gains and costs estimated from the rinderpest eradication programme in Ethiopia were analysed using benefit-cost methods. Social net present values (NPVs) and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) were calculated. Although the economic model found that BCRs were greater than one for all interventions examined, the scenarios of intensive mass vaccination (75% vaccination coverage) and surveillance with targeted vaccination were economically preferable. The BCRs for these strategies were 5.08 and 3.68, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that an increase in market prices for beef and milk increased the value of economic loss, the economic surplus and returns to investments in terms of NPVs and BCRs. An increase in demand and supply elasticities for beef and milk decreased the value of economic losses. This also had a negative effect on economic surplus and NPVs. The effect of an increase in the discount rate reduced returns to investments, with lower NPVs and BCRs. The authors note that 75% mass vaccination coverage was attempted in Ethiopia in the early 1990s, but failed to eradicate rinderpest because the approach was logistically too difficult to implement in practice. Subsequently, an effective surveillance and epidemiologically targeted vaccination programme was developed and has apparently resulted in the eradication of rinderpest from Ethiopia (the last case was recorded in 1996). The authors conclude that epidemio-surveillance with targeted vaccination is both an economically viable and realistic strategy and offers benefits that extend beyond rinderpest eradication.