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Background: Women with borderline/mildly dyskaryotic (BMD) cytology smears are currently followed up with repeat testing at 6 and 18 months. The objective of this study is to analyse the cross-sectional and longitudinal performance of p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) and CIN2+ in women with BMD, and to compare the results with baseline human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. Methods: Conventional Pap cytology specimens of 256 women with BMD were dual stained for p16/Ki-67 retrospectively, and compared with baseline HPV results and long-term follow-up results. Results: p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology showed a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 64.4% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100.% for CIN3+. Human papillomavirus testing demonstrated similar sensitivity (96.3%), and NPV (99.1%), but a significantly lower specificity (57.6%; P=0.024) for CIN3+. Sensitivity, specificity and NPV for CIN2+ of dual-stained cytology were 89.7%, 73.1% and 95.1%, respectively, which was similar when compared with HPV testing. Dual-stained cytology showed a significant lower referral rate than HPV testing (43.6% vs 49.1%; P=0.043). During long-term follow-up, no CIN3+ lesions developed in HPV-positive, dual-stained negative women. Conclusions: Comparable sensitivity and NPV of dual-stained cytology for CIN3+, combined with a significantly higher specificity, makes p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology a viable alternative to HPV testing for triaging BMD.

Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing has higher sensitivity but lower specificity than cytology for cervical (pre)-cancerous lesions. Therefore, triage of hrHPV-positive women is needed in cervical cancer screening. Methods: A cohort of 1,100 hrHPV-positive women, from a population-based screening trial (POBASCAM: n = 44,938; 29-61 years), was used to evaluate 10 triage strategies, involving testing at baseline and six months with combinations of cytology, HPV16/18 genotyping, and/or repeat hrHPV testing. Clinical endpoint was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) detected within four years; results were adjusted for women not attending repeat testing. A triage strategy was considered acceptable, when the probability of no CIN3+ after negative triage (negative predictive value, NPV) was at least 98%, and the CIN3+ risk after positive triage (positive predictive value, PPV) was at least 20%. Results: Triage at baseline with cytology only yielded an NPV of 94.3% [95% confidence interval (CI), 92.0- 96.0] and a PPV of 39.7% (95% CI, 34.0-45.6). An increase in NPV, against a modest decrease in PPV, was obtained by triaging