Search

Byline: R.E. Lewis, A.M. Riddle, J.O. Lewis The potential consequences of a particular gaseous emission usually relate to a specific averaging time. However, the averaging time associated with gas monitoring data in the region of a discharge may differ from the averaging time implicit in a model employed to predict the concentration resulting from that emission. Tables of factors exist for taking account of such differences and recent models include expressions that convert predicted values to the appropriate averaging time. This paper presents the results of a study of the factors used in these regulatory tables, and makes comparisons with the equivalent factors deduced from runs with a gas dispersion model and sonic anemometer observations.

This study evaluates the applicability and sensitivity of fish population dynamics modeling in assessing the potential effects of individual chemicals on population sustainability and recovery. Fish reproductive health is an increasingly important issue for ecological risk assessment following international concern over endocrine disruption. Life-history data from natural brook trout and fathead minnow populations were combined with effects data from laboratory-based studies, mainly concerning species other than brook trout and fathead minnows, to assess the likely impact of nonylphenol (NP) and methoxychlor (MXC) on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) population size. A delay differential equation (DDE) model with a 1-day timestep was used to predict the population dynamics of the brook trout and fathead minnows. The model predicts that NP, could enhance populations by up to 17% at a concentration of 30 μg l-1 based on the results of reduction in survival and increased fecundity from life-cycle toxicity tests, however attempting to allow for growth reduction and its effect on fecundity results in a prediction of a 28% reduction in population numbers. For fathead minnows the DDE model predicts that the same concentration of NP could cause a population reduction of 21%. The differences in these predictions are related to these two species having different life history strategies, which are considered in the parameterization of the model. Post-application concentrations of MXC may peak around 300 μg l-1 and then decline rapidly with time. Predictions show that such applications could cause a reduction of up to 30% in brook trout populations if the application occurs at the peak of the spawning season on successive years but that the effect would be less than 1% if the spawning season is avoided. Effects on the fathead minnow population size are predicted to be smaller (<4%) even if application occurs during the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]