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Regulatory changes proposed by the US Department of Agriculture in 1994 promised to bring progressive changes to school meals. However, lobbying by interest groups resulted in substantial changes to the final rule. This analysis retrospectively examines the federal school meals policy-making process during 1992 to 1996. Key questions address why the policy changed and what the role of interest groups was in affecting the shape, pace, and direction of the policy. The study provides suggestions for using the experiences of 1992 to 1996 to guide future advocacy efforts and for adapting the approach for application to other food and nutrition policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the period 1985-89, there was a severe drop in obstetrical services in rural areas of North Carolina, partly because of rising malpractice insurance rates. The State government responded with the Rural Obstetrical Care Incentive (ROCI) Program that provides a malpractice insurance subsidy of up to $6,500 per participating physician per year. Enacted into law in 1988, the ROCI Program was expanded in 1991, making certified nurse midwives eligible to receive subsidies of up to $3,000 per year. To participate, practitioners must provide obstetrical care to all women, regardless of their ability to pay for services. Total funding for the program has increased from $240,000 to $840,000, in spite of extreme budgetary constraints faced by the State. The program and how its implementation has maintained or increased access to obstetrical care in participating counties are described on the bases of site visits to local health departments in participating counties and data from the North Carolina Division of Maternal and Child Health. The program is of significance to policy makers nationwide as both a response to rising malpractice insurance rates and reduced access to obstetrical care in rural areas, and as an innovative, nontraditional State program in which the locus of decision making is at the county level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a study of the employment of nonphysician providers -- nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and certified nurse midwives -- in both rural and urban Community and Migrant Health Centers and of factors associated with their employment, based on a 1991 national survey of 383 Centers. Results of the survey suggest that nonphysician providers, in particular nurse practitioners and certified nurse midwives, primarily serve as physician substitutes, and are more likely to be employed by Centers that are larger and have affiliations with nonphysician provider training programs. Rural or urban location is not significantly related to the employment of nonphysician providers after controlling for center size. The fact that rural centers employ fewer nonphysician providers than urban centers can primarily be accounted for by their relatively small size, rather than a lack of interest. These findings demonstrate that the use of nonphysician providers is an important way both to achieve cost containment and improve access to primary care for those residing in medically underserved areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: The geographic distribution of physicians in the United States of America has been often described as unbalanced or maldistributed. There is much in the literature on the regional distribution of physicians but far less is written about their pattern of movement. This study aimed to examine the geographic transition of physicians at two points in time (1981 and 2003), in and out the four US census regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). METHODS: We identified 83 383 non-federal clinically active primary care physicians (CAPCP) who were clinically active both in 1981 and in 2003 as registered in the American Medical Association Physician Masterfiles. The main variable was the migration status observed between 1981 and 2003, and they were categorized into three groups: (1) non-migrants (same county of practice); (2) internal migrants (different counties of practice, same region); or (3) external migrants (different regions of practice). Covariables were gender and age for the CAPCP, and the percentage of non-whites in the population, the mean per capita income of the population, the ratio of primary care physicians and the ratio of hospital beds per 1000 inhabitants, as well as the rural/urban status for the county of practice in 1981 (large metropolitan area, small metropolitan area, or non-adjacent). RESULTS: Overall, 13.2 % of CAPCP moved from one region to another between 1981 and 2003. Women and young CAPCPs were more prone to migrate during their career. Proportionally, a greater outflow of the 1981 workforce is observed for the Northeast and Midwest regions with 16% and 18%, respectively, compared with 10% for both the West and South regions. When taking into account the total flow (in and out) for each region, the West and the South 'benefited' from CAPCPs' migration, with respectively a 1.10 and 1.07 increase in 2003 when compared with 1981; while the Midwest and the Northeast regions ended with a 0.90 and 0.92 decrease in 2003. Both logistic regression and regression-tree analyses show that a physician's age is the most important covariate for all regions, with CAPCPs in their 30s being the most prone to migrate outside the region, whereas gender is a significant factor only in older CAPCPs in the Midwest and South region. The percentage of non-white population in the county of origin is also a significant covariate for all regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study looked at the net movement of clinically active primary care physicians across census regions between 1981 and 2003, and underscores the importance of performing specific regional analysis in large countries where socio-demographical and geographical heterogeneities can be observed. Overall, 13.2% CAPCP moved from one region to another over the 22 year period: the South and West regions benefited while the Midwest region was disadvantaged by the migration flow. Age is the major determinant of migrant CAPCP. Logistic and regression tree models also show that percentage of non-white population of the county of origin is a major determinant of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeBreast cancer incidence rates are reported to be higher in urban compared with rural areas in the United States. We investigated the relationship between urbanization and breast cancer in North Carolina (1995-1999), and considered hospital characteristics as an explanation.MethodsWe calculated age-adjusted in situ and invasive female breast cancer incidence rates stratified by race, urbanization (Urban Influence Codes), and the presence of a hospital with a cancer registry and cancer program approval in a county.ResultsFor white women, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the most urban with the most rural counties were 1.60 for in situ and 1.18 for invasive cancer. For non-white women, IRRs were 1.27 and 0.99, respectively. IRRs for incidence in registry hospital counties versus those without were all > 1.00 and differences were greater for in situ cancer than invasive. For most strata, urban excesses were attenuated when further stratified by registry hospital status.ConclusionsFor most strata, we observed excess incidence in urban counties, but it appeared to be explained through the urban preponderance of registry hospitals. Counties with these hospitals may have higher incidence because of increased detection. Area hospital characteristics should be considered when evaluating geographic patterns of breast cancer incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The delivery of pediatric surgical care for gallbladder (GB) and biliary disease involves both General Surgeons (GS) and Pediatric Surgeons (PS). There is a lack of data describing how surgeon specialty impacts practice patterns and healthcare charges., Methods: We performed a retrospective review of the North Carolina Inpatient Hospital Discharge Database (2013-2017) on pediatric patients (≤18 years) undergoing surgery for biliary pathology. We performed multivariate linear regression comparing surgeons with surgical charge., Results: 12,531 patients had GB or biliary pathology and 4023 (32.1%) had cholecystectomies. The most common procedure for PS and GS was cholecystectomy for cholecystitis (n = 509, 54.0% and n = 2275, 76.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. The hospital ($26,605, IQR $18,955-37,249, vs. $17,451, IQR $13,246-23,478, p < 0.001) and surgical charges ($15,465, IQR $12,233-22,203, vs. $10,338, IQR $6837-14,952, p < 0.001) were higher for PS than GS. Controlling for pertinent variables, surgical charges for PS were $4192 higher than for GS (95% CI: $2162-6122)., Conclusion: The cholecystectomy charge differential between PS and GS is significant and persisted after controlling for pertinent covariates., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest All the authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Context: Preventive medicine physicians work at the intersection of clinical medicine and public health. A previous report on the state of the preventive medicine workforce in 2000 revealed an ongoing decline in preventive medicine physicians and residents, but there have been few updates since., Objective: The purpose of this study was to describe trends in both the number of board-certified preventive medicine physicians and those physicians who self-designate preventive medicine as a primary or secondary specialty and examine the age, gender distribution, and geographic distribution of this workforce., Design: Analysis of the supply of preventive medicine physicians using data derived from board certification files of the American Board of Preventive Medicine and self-designation data from the American Medical Association Masterfile., Setting: The 50 US states and District of Columbia., Participants: Board-certified and self-designated preventive medicine physicians in the United States., Main Outcome Measures: Number, demographics, and location of preventive medicine physicians in United States., Results: From 1999 to 2018, the total number of physicians board certified in preventive medicine increased from 6091 to 9270; the number of self-identified preventive medicine physicians has generally decreased since 2000, with a leveling off in the past 4 years matching the trend of preventive medicine physicians per 100 000 population; there is a recent increase in women in the specialty; the practice locations of preventive medicine physicians do not match the US population in rural or micropolitan areas; and the average age of preventive medicine physicians is increasing., Conclusions: The number of preventive medicine physicians is not likely to match population needs in the United States in the near term and beyond. Assessing the preventive medicine physician workforce in the United States is complicated by difficulties in defining the specialty and because less than half of self-designated preventive medicine physicians hold a board certification in the specialty., Competing Interests: The authors have no other conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

BACKGROUND In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, health care decision-makers in North Carolina needed information about the available health workforce in order to conduct workforce surge planning and to anticipate concerns about professional or geographic workforce shortages. METHOD Descriptive and cartographic analyses were conducted using licensure data held by the North Carolina Health Professions Data System to assess the supply of respiratory therapists, nurses, and critical care physicians in North Carolina. Licensure data were merged with population data and numbers of intensive care unit (ICU) beds drawn from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Healthcare Cost Report Information System (HCRIS). RESULTS The pandemic highlighted how critical data infrastructure is to public health infrastructure. Respiratory therapists and acute care, emergency, and critical care nurses were diffused broadly throughout the state, with higher concentrations in urban areas. Critical care physicians were primarily based in areas with academic health centers. LIMITATIONS Data were unavailable to capture the rapid changes in supply due to clinicians reentering or exiting the workforce. County-level analyses did not reflect individual, facility-level supply, which was needed to plan organizational responses. CONCLUSIONS Health care decision-makers in North Carolina were able to access information about the supply of clinicians critical to caring for COVID-19 patients due to the state's long-standing investments in health workforce data infrastructure. Ability to respond was made easier due to strong working relationships between the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, the North Carolina Area Health Education Centers Program, the health professional licensure boards, and state government health care agencies., (©2021 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.)

Background: The lack of access to essential surgical care in low-income countries is aggravated by emigration of locally-trained surgical specialists to more affluent regions. Yet, the global diaspora of surgeons, obstetricians, and anesthesiologists from low-income and middle-income countries has never been fully described and compared with those who have remained in their country of origin. It is also unclear whether the surgical workforce is more affected by international migration than other medical specialists. In this study, we aimed to quantify the proportion of surgical specialists originating from low-income and middle-income countries that currently work in high-income countries., Methods: We retrieved surgical workforce data from 48 high-income countries and 102 low-income and middle-income countries using the database of the World Health Organization Global Surgical Workforce. We then compared this domestic workforce with more granular data on the country of initial medical qualification of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians made available for 14 selected high-income countries to calculate the proportion of surgical specialists working abroad., Results: We identified 1,118,804 specialist surgeons, anesthesiologists, or obstetricians from 102 low-income and middle-income countries, of whom 33,021 (3.0%) worked in the 14 included high-income countries. The proportion of surgical specialists abroad was greatest for the African and South East Asian regions (12.8% and 12.1%). The proportion of specialists abroad was not greater for surgeons, anesthesiologists, or obstetricians than for physicians and other medical specialists (P = .465). Overall, the countries with the lowest remaining density of surgical specialists were also the countries from which the largest proportion of graduates were now working in high-income countries (P = .011)., Conclusion: A substantial proportion of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians from low-income and middle-income countries currently work in high-income countries. In addition to decreasing migration from areas of surgical need, innovative strategies to retain and strengthen the surgical workforce could involve engaging this large international pool of surgical specialists and instructors., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Objective: To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties., Background: Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery., Methods: The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented., Results: The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035., Conclusions: The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

Health care in the United States is likely to change more in the next 10 years than in any previous decade. However, changes in the workforce needed to support new care delivery and payment models will likely be slower and less dramatic. In this issue of the NCMJ, experts from education, practice, and policy reflect on the "state of the state" and what the future holds for multiple health professional groups. They write from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines, but all point toward the need for change-change in the way we educate, deploy, and recruit health professionals. The rapid pace of health system change in North Carolina means that the road map is being redrawn as we drive, but some general routes are evident. In this issue brief we suggest that, to make the workforce more effective, we need to broaden our definition of who is in the health workforce; focus on retooling and retraining the existing workforce; shift from training workers in acute settings to training them in community-based settings; and increase accountability in the system so that public funds spent on the health professions produce the workforce needed to meet the state's health care needs. North Carolina has arguably the best health workforce data system in the country; it has historically provided the data needed to inform policy change, but adequate and ongoing financial support for that system needs to be assured., (©2016 by the North Carolina Institute of Medicine and The Duke Endowment. All rights reserved.)

Health worker migration is causing profound health, safety, social, economic and political challenges to countries without special policies for health professionals' mobility. This study describes the prevalence of migration intentions among medical undergraduates, identifies underlying factors related to migration intention and describes subsequent actions in Serbia. Data were captured by survey of 938 medical students from Belgrade University (94% response rate), representing two thirds of matching students in Serbia stated their intentions, reasons and obstacles regarding work abroad. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics and a sequential multivariate logistic regression. Based on descriptive and inferential statistics we were able to predict the profile of first and fifth year medical students who intend or have plans to work abroad. This study contributes to our understanding of the causes and correlates of intent to migrate and could serve to raise awareness and point to the valuable policy options to manage migration., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: The overall distribution of physicians in the United States is uneven, with concentrations in urban areas while some rural places have proportionately very few. This report examines the movement of physicians who have completed their training and choose to move from one location to another., Method: The analysis linked the locations of practice of physicians practicing in the 50 U.S. states in 2006 and 2011 using data from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Age, gender, location practice, activity status, and specialty were included in the data. Physicians who changed address in the five-year period were identified and were compared with nonmovers using descriptive statistics. A summary logistic regression of movers compared with nonmovers was performed to assess the most important correlates of migration., Results: The overall rate of county-to-county relocation for physicians was 19.8% for the five-year period 2006-2011. Analyses indicated that older, male, and urban physicians were less likely to move; that physicians with osteopathic training were more likely to move; and that surgeons and primary care physicians were less likely to move compared with other specialists., Conclusions: The physician workforce in the United States migrates from place to place, and this movement determines the local supply of practitioners at any given time. Programs that intend to influence the local supply of doctors should account for this background tendency to relocate practice in order to achieve goals of more equal geographic distribution.

Inspired by the Affordable Care Act and health care payment models that reward value over volume, health care delivery systems are redefining the work of the health professionals they employ. Existing workers are taking on new roles, new types of health professionals are emerging, and the health workforce is shifting from practicing in higher-cost acute settings to lower-cost community settings, including patients' homes. The authors believe that although the pace of health system transformation has accelerated, a shortage of workers trained to function in the new models of care is hampering progress. In this Perspective, they argue that urgent attention must be paid to retraining the 18 million workers already employed in the system who will actually implement system change.Their view is shaped by work they have conducted in helping practices transform care, by extensive consultations with stakeholders attempting to understand the workforce implications of health system redesign, and by a thorough review of the peer-reviewed and gray literature. Through this work, the authors have become increasingly convinced that academic health centers (AHCs)-organizations at the forefront of innovations in health care delivery and health workforce training-are uniquely situated to proactively lead efforts to retrain the existing workforce. They recommend a set of specific actions (i.e., discovering and disseminating best practices; developing new partnerships; focusing on systems engineering approaches; planning for sustainability; and revising credentialing, accreditation, and continuing education) that AHC leaders can undertake to develop a more coherent workforce development strategy that supports practice transformation.

There is growing consensus that the health care workforce in the United States needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of a health care system that is being rapidly and permanently redesigned. Accountable care organizations and patient-centered medical homes, for instance, will greatly alter the mix of caregivers needed and create new roles for existing health care workers. The focus of health system innovation, however, has largely been on reorganizing care delivery processes, reengineering workflows, and adopting electronic technology to improve outcomes. Little attention has been paid to training workers to adapt to these systems and deliver patient care in ever more coordinated systems, such as integrated health care networks that harmonize primary care with acute inpatient and postacute long-term care. This article highlights how neither regulatory policies nor market forces are keeping up with a rapidly changing delivery system and argues that training and education should be connected more closely to the actual delivery of care.

Background: A number of states have implemented Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams statewide. The extent to which team-based care in ACT programs substitutes or complements primary care and other types of health services is relatively unknown outside of clinical trials., Objective: To analyze whether investments in ACT yield savings in primary care and other outpatient health services., Design: Patterns of medical and mental health service use and costs were examined using Medicaid claims files from 2000 to 2002 in North Carolina. Two-part models and negative binomial models compared individuals on ACT (n = 1,065 distinct individuals) with two control groups of Medicaid enrollees with severe mental illness not receiving ACT services (n = 1,426 and n = 41,717 distinct individuals)., Results: We found no evidence that ACT affected utilization of other outpatient health services or primary care; however, ACT was associated with a decrease in other outpatient health expenditures (excluding ACT) through a reduction in the intensity with which these services were used. Consistent with prior literature, ACT also decreased the likelihood of emergency room visits and inpatient psychiatric stays., Conclusions: Given the increasing emphasis and efforts toward integrating physical health and behavioral health care, it is likely that ACT will continue to be challenged to meet the physical health needs of its consumers. To improve primary care receipt, this may mean a departure from traditional staffing patterns (e.g., the addition of a primary care doctor and nurse) and expansion of the direct services ACT provides to incorporate physical health treatments.

Reforming health care in the United States often focuses on improving access to care by removing financial barriers and bringing practitioners closer to patients. This article reviews the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) that are intended to improve access and discusses how the ACA will change access to care for Americans.

The National Institutes of Health convened a workshop to engage researchers and practitioners in dialogue on research issues viewed as either unique or of particular relevance to rural areas, key content areas needed to inform policy and practice in rural settings, and ways rural contexts may influence study design, implementation, assessment of outcomes, and dissemination. Our purpose was to develop a research agenda to address the disproportionate burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related risk factors among populations living in rural areas. Complementary presentations used theoretical and methodological principles to describe research and practice examples from rural settings. Participants created a comprehensive CVD research agenda that identified themes and challenges, and provided 21 recommendations to guide research, practice, and programs in rural areas.

Objective: To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028., Summary Background Data: The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care., Methods: The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors., Results: : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines., Conclusions: The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

Objective: To determine if the proportion of consumers on federally qualified health center (FQHC) governing boards is associated with their use of federal grant funds to provide uncompensated care., Methods: Using FQHC data from the Uniform Data System, county-level data from the Area Resource File and governing board data from FQHC grant applications, the uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the amount of its federal funding is modeled as a function of board and executive committee composition using fixed-effects regression with FQHC and county-level controls., Results: Consumer governance does not predict how much uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the size of its federal grant. Rather, the proportion of an FQHC's patient-mix that is uninsured drives uncompensated care provision., Conclusions: Aside from a small executive committee effect, consumer governance does not influence FQHCs' provision of uncompensated care. More work is needed to understand the role of consumer governance.

Objective: To quantify the correlates of variations of Medicare per beneficiary costs at the hospital service area level and determine whether physician supply and the specialty of physicians has a significant relationship with cost variation., Background: The American Medical Association Masterfile data on physician and surgeon location, characteristics and specialty; Census derived sociodemographic data from 2006 ZIP code level Claritas PopFacts database; and Medicare per beneficiary costs from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care project., Methods: A correlational analysis using bivariate plots and fixed effects linear regression models controlling for hospital service area sociodemographics and the number and characteristics of the physician supply. Data were aggregated to the Dartmouth hospital service area level from ZIP code level files., Results: We found that costs are strongly related to the sociodemographic character of the hospital service areas and the overall supply of physicians but a mixed correlation to the specialist supply depending on the interaction of the proportion of the physician supply who are international medical graduates. The ratio of general surgeons and surgical subspecialists to population are associated with lower costs in the models, again with difference depending on the influence of international medical graduates. There is a strong association between higher costs and the local proportion of physician supply made up of graduates of non-US or Canadian medical schools and female graduates., Conclusions: These results suggest that strategies to reduce overall costs by changing physician supply must consider more than just overall numbers.

Purpose: General surgeons have decreased as a proportion of the total U.S. surgical workforce. Given the likelihood of increasing shortages of general surgeons, the authors evaluated available expansion capacity of existing general surgery residency programs., Method: In November 2009, the authors e-mailed a Web-based questionnaire to the program directors and coordinators of the 246 U.S. general surgery residency programs that were then certified by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education., Results: Of the 246 programs the authors contacted, 123 (50%) completed the survey. Community hospital programs and academic programs had similar response rates (52% and 50%, respectively). Of the 115 program directors who responded to the relevant question, 92 (80%) reported sufficient existing case volume capacity to accommodate additional surgery residents. Both community and academic program directors reported modest expansion capacity: an average of 1.7 and 2.0 additional residents per year, respectively. Across all programs, the average additional capacity reported was 1.9 additional residents per year. An expansion of this size would increase the number of general surgery residency positions from 1,137 to 1,515 annually. After accounting for subspecialization, this increase of 378 residents would result in approximately 249 additional general surgeons entering the workforce per year after five years., Conclusions: Expansion capacity within existing approved general surgery residency programs is insufficient to meet the expected demand for general surgeons in the United States. Strategies to alleviate shortages include developing new training programs, cultivating new medical education funding streams, and changing the surgical training paradigm., (Copyright © by the Association of American medical Colleges.)

We explored the association between changes in local health department (LHD) resource levels with changes in health outcomes via a retrospective cohort study. We measured changes in expenditures and staffing reported by LHDs on the 1997 and 2005 National Association of County and City Health Officials surveys and assessed changes in state-level health outcomes with the America's Health Rankings reports for those years. We used pairwise correlation and multivariate regression to analyze the association of changes in LHD resources with changes in health outcomes. Increases in LHD expenditures were significantly associated with decreases in infectious disease morbidity at the state level (P = .037), and increases in staffing were significantly associated with decreases in cardiovascular disease mortality (P = .014), controlling for other factors.

The baby-boom generation will reach the age of eligibility for Medicare starting in 2011. This large group of Americans will require more health care, and more health care workers will be needed to meet those needs. Understanding the needs as well as the size of the workforce needed requires substantial analysis and extensive data. Two major approaches can be used to make these estimates, and the choice of both methods and assumptions can affect the outcomes of any analysis. For the United States to make workforce policy decisions with the best information, we must invest in systems and resources to generate those data and support policy-making bodies that can interpret and make recommendations consistent with the analyses.

Research suggests that primary care physicians may help to control health care costs by encouraging more efficient service use. However, most studies do not account for data aggregation effects that can significantly affect the direction and magnitude of findings. To re-examine the association between the proportion of primary care physicians and health care utilization rates in an area, and investigate the potential impact of aggregating data to different geographic levels on these observed associations, we estimate four distinct cross-sectional multivariate regression models to predict health care utilization at the county level and the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level using data from 2007. Our study focuses on health care utilization in the United States using inpatient admissions, outpatient visits, emergency room visits, and total (both inpatient and outpatient) surgeries as dependent variables in separate regressions. The key independent variable is the proportion of primary care physicians in the area. Several community-level control variables are also included. We find that a higher proportion of primary care physicians in the area's physician supply is associated with a decreased number of inpatient admissions at the MSA level, but not the county level, and a decreased number of emergency room visits at the county level, but not the MSA level. Outpatient visits and total surgeries are not associated with the proportion of primary care physicians. From our findings we are able to conclude that there is some evidence that a higher concentration of primary care physicians is associated with a decrease in health care utilization, but these findings depend on the level of aggregation. Investigators should be aware of the implications of aggregating data and acknowledge any resultant limitations., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)