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We report on the first comprehensive study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with $\sim$25 MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events in 1980-2013 observed in the low/inner corona by the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO) Mk3 and Mk4 coronameters. Where possible, these observations are combined with spacebased observations from the Solar Maximum Mission C/P, P78-1 SOLWIND or SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. The aim of the study is to understand directly-measured (rather than inferred from proxies) CME motions in the low to middle corona and their association with SEP acceleration, and hence attempt to identify early signatures that are characteristic of SEP acceleration in ground-based CME observations that may be used to warn of impending SEP events. Although we find that SEP events are associated with CMEs that are on average faster and wider than typical CMEs observed by MLSO, a major challenge turns out to be determining reliable estimates of the CME dynamics in the low corona from the 3-minute cadence Mk3/4 observations since different analysis techniques can produce inconsistent results. This complicates the assessment of what early information on a possible SEP event is available from these low coronal observations, Comment: To be published in Solar Physics

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists., Comment: Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research

The processes responsible for the acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are still not well understood, including whether SEP electrons and protons are accelerated by common or separate processes. Using a numerical particle transport model that includes both pitch-angle and perpendicular spatial diffusion, we simulate, amongst other quantities, the onset delay for MeV electrons and protons and compare the results to observations of SEPs from widely-separated spacecraft. Such observations have previously been interpreted, in a simple scenario assuming no perpendicular diffusion, as evidence for different electron and proton sources. We show that, by assuming a common particle source together with perpendicular diffusion, we are able to simultaneously reproduce the onset delays for both electrons and protons. We argue that this points towards a common accelerator for these particles. Moreover, a relatively broad particle source is required in the model to correctly describe the observations. This is suggestive of diffusive shock acceleration occurring at large shock structures playing a significant role in the acceleration of these SEPs., Comment: Accepted to ApJ

Little is known about the origin of the high-energy and sustained emission from solar Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Flares (LDGRFs), identified with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), and now Fermi. Though Fermi/Large Area Space Telescope (LAT) has identified dozens of flares with LDGRF signature, the nature of this phenomenon has been a challenge to explain both due to the extreme energies and long durations. The highest-energy emission has generally been attributed to pion production from the interaction of >300 MeV protons with the ambient matter. The extended duration suggests that particle acceleration occurs over large volumes extending high in the corona, either from stochastic acceleration within large coronal loops or from back precipitation from coronal mass ejection driven shocks. It is possible to test these models by making direct comparison between the properties of the accelerated ion population producing the gamma-ray emission derived from the Fermi/LAT observations, and the characteristics of solar energetic particles (SEPs) measured by the Payload for Matter-Antimatter Exploration and Light Nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) spacecraft in the energy range corresponding to the pion-related emission detected with Fermi. For fourteen of these events we compare the two populations -- SEPs in space and the interacting particles at the Sun -- and discuss the implications in terms of potential sources. Our analysis shows that the two proton numbers are poorly correlated, with their ratio spanning more than five orders of magnitude, suggesting that the back precipitation of shock-acceleration particles is unlikely the source of the LDGRF emission., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

An interval of exceptional solar activity was registered in early September 2017, late in the decay phase of solar cycle 24, involving the complex Active Region 12673 as it rotated across the western hemisphere with respect to Earth. A large number of eruptions occurred between 4-10 September, including four associated with X-class flares. The X9.3 flare on 6 September and the X8.2 flare on 10 September are currently the two largest during cycle 24. Both were accompanied by fast coronal mass ejections and gave rise to solar energetic particle (SEP) events measured by near-Earth spacecraft. In particular, the partially-occulted solar event on 10 September triggered a ground level enhancement (GLE), the second GLE of cycle 24. A further, much less energetic SEP event was recorded on 4 September. In this work we analyze observations by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), estimating the SEP event-integrated spectra above 300 keV and carrying out a detailed study of the spectral shape temporal evolution. Derived spectra are characterized by a low-energy break at few/tens of MeV; the 10 September event spectrum, extending up to ~1 GeV, exhibits an additional rollover at several hundred MeV. We discuss the spectral interpretation in the scenario of shock acceleration and in terms of other important external influences related to interplanetary transport and magnetic connectivity, taking advantage of multi-point observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Spectral results are also compared with those obtained for the 17 May 2012 GLE event., Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Weather; 24 pages, 10 figures, 1 table

Despite the significant progress achieved in recent years, the physical mechanisms underlying the origin of solar energetic particles (SEPs) are still a matter of debate. The complex nature of both particle acceleration and transport poses challenges to developing a universal picture of SEP events that encompasses both the low-energy (from tens of keV to a few hundreds of MeV) observations made by space-based instruments and the GeV particles detected by the worldwide network of neutron monitors in ground-level enhancements (GLEs). The high-precision data collected by the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment offer a unique opportunity to study the SEP fluxes between $\sim$80 MeV and a few GeV, significantly improving the characterization of the most energetic events. In particular, PAMELA can measure for the first time with good accuracy the spectral features at moderate and high energies, providing important constraints for current SEP models. In addition, the PAMELA observations allow the relationship between low and high-energy particles to be investigated, enabling a clearer view of the SEP origin. No qualitative distinction between the spectral shapes of GLE, sub-GLE and non-GLE events is observed, suggesting that GLEs are not a separate class, but are the subset of a continuous distribution of SEP events that are more intense at high energies. While the spectral forms found are to be consistent with diffusive shock acceleration theory, which predicts spectral rollovers at high energies that are attributed to particles escaping the shock region during acceleration, further work is required to explore the relative influences of acceleration and transport processes on SEP spectra., Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

New results on the short-term galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity variation (Forbush decrease) in December 2006 measured by the PAMELA instrument are presented. Forbush decreases are sudden suppressions of the GCR intensities which are associated with the passage of interplanetary transients such as shocks and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Most of the past measurements of this phenomenon were carried out with ground-based detectors such as neutron monitors or muon telescopes. These techniques allow only the indirect detection of the overall GCR intensity over an integrated energy range. For the first time, thanks to the unique features of the PAMELA magnetic spectrometer, the Forbush decrease commencing on 2006 December 14, following a CME at the Sun on 2006 December 13 was studied in a wide rigidity range (0.4 - 20 GV) and for different species of GCRs detected directly in space. The daily averaged GCR proton intensity was used to investigate the rigidity dependence of the amplitude and the recovery time of the Forbush decrease. Additionally, for the first time, the temporal variations in the helium and electron intensities during a Forbush decrease were studied. Interestingly, the temporal evolutions of the helium and proton intensities during the Forbush decrease were found in good agreement, while the low rigidity electrons (< 2 GV) displayed a faster recovery. This difference in the electron recovery is interpreted as a charge-sign dependence introduced by drift motions experienced by the GCRs during their propagation through the heliosphere.

Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3., Comment: 37 pages, 22 figures

The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remains elusive. Here we report how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME's solar origin with a simplified flux rope topology the magnetic vectors within the Earth-directed segment of a CME can be predicted. In order to test the validity of this proof-of-concept architecture for estimating the magnetic vectors within CMEs, a total of eight CME events (between 2010 and 2014) have been investigated. With a focus on the large false alarm of January 2014, this work highlights the importance of including the early evolutionary effects of a CME for forecasting purposes. The angular rotation in the predicted magnetic field closely follows the broad rotational structure seen within the in situ data. This time-varying field estimate is implemented into a process to quantitatively predict a time-varying Kp index that is described in detail in paper II. Future statistical work, quantifying the uncertainties in this process, may improve the more heuristic approach used by early forecasting systems., Comment: This paper has been published in Space Weather. Part two is currently under review

Carbon fibre composite technology for lightweight mirrors is gaining increasing interest in the space- and ground-based astronomical communities for its low weight, ease of manufacturing, excellent thermal qualities and robustness. We present here first results of a project to design and produce a 27 cm diameter deformable carbon fibre composite mirror. The aim was to produce a high surface form accuracy as well as low surface roughness. As part of this programme, a passive mirror was developed to investigate stability and coating issues. Results from the manufacturing and polishing process are reported here. We also present results of a mechanical and thermal finite element analysis, as well as early experimental findings of the deformable mirror. Possible applications and future work are discussed., Comment: Accepted by Optical Engineering. Figures 1-7 on http://www.star.ucl.ac.uk/~sk/OEpaper_files/

Little is known about the origin of the high-energy and sustained emission from solar long-duration gamma-ray flares (LDGRFs) identified with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, the Solar Maximum Mission, and now Fermi. Though the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has identified dozens of flares with LDGRF signatures, the nature of this phenomenon has been a challenge to explain due to both extreme energies and long durations. The highest-energy emission has generally been attributed to pion production from the interaction of 300 MeV protons with the ambient matter. The extended duration suggests that particle acceleration occurs over large volumes extending high in the corona, either from stochastic acceleration within large coronal loops or from back precipitation from coronal mass ejection–driven shocks. It is possible to test these models by making a direct comparison between the properties of the accelerated ion population producing the γ-ray emission derived from the Fermi/LAT observations and the characteristics of solar energetic particles (SEPs) measured by the Payload for Matter-Antimatter Exploration and Light Nuclei Astrophysics spacecraft in the energy range corresponding to the pion-related emission detected with Fermi. For 14 of these events, we compare the two populations—SEPs in space and the interacting particles at the Sun—and discuss the implications in terms of potential sources. Our analysis shows that the two proton numbers are poorly correlated, with their ratio spanning more than 5 orders of magnitude, suggesting that the back precipitation of shock-acceleration particles is unlikely to be the source of the F emission.

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.