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Objective: Adults living with overweight or obesity do not represent a single homogenous group in terms of mortality and disease risks. The aim of our study was to evaluate how the associations of adulthood overweight and obesity with mortality and incident disease are modified by (i.e., differ according to) self-reported childhood body weight categories., Methods: The sample comprised 191,181 men and 242,806 women aged 40-69 years (in 2006-2010) in the UK Biobank. The outcomes were all-cause mortality, incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and incident obesity-related cancer. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate how the associations with the outcomes of adulthood weight status (normal weight, overweight, obesity) differed according to perceived body weight at age 10 years (about average, thinner, plumper). To triangulate results using an approach that better accounts for confounding, analyses were repeated using previously developed and validated polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for childhood body weight and adulthood BMI, categorised into three-tier variables using the same proportions as in the observational variables., Results: In both sexes, adulthood obesity was associated with higher hazards of all outcomes. However, the associations of obesity with all-cause mortality and incident CVD were stronger in adults who reported being thinner at 10 years. For example, obesity was associated with a 1.28 (1.21, 1.35) times higher hazard of all-cause mortality in men who reported being an average weight child, but among men who reported being a thinner child this estimate was 1.63 (1.53, 1.75). The ratio between these two estimates was 1.28 (1.17, 1.40). There was also some evidence that the associations of obesity with all-cause mortality and incident CVD were stronger in adults who reported being plumper at 10 years. In genetic analyses, however, there was no evidence that the association of obesity (according to the adult PRS) with mortality or incident CVD differed according to childhood body size (according to the child PRS). For incident obesity-related cancer, the evidence for effect modification was limited and inconsistent between the observational and genetic analyses., Conclusions: Greater risks for all-cause mortality and incident CVD in adults with obesity who perceive themselves to have been a thinner or plumper than average child may be due to confounding and/or recall bias., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. TGR is a full-time employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this research. TN is a full-time employee of AstraZeneca outside of this research. JLB declares receiving consulting fees from Novo Nordisk A/S., (© 2025. The Author(s).)

Obese adults are often reported to have smaller brain volumes than their non-obese peers. Whether this represents evidence of accelerations in obesity-driven atrophy or is instead a legacy of developmental differences established earlier in the lifespan remains unclear. This study investigated whether early-life differences in adiposity explain differences in numerous adult brain traits commonly attributed to mid-life obesity. We used a two-sample life course Mendelian randomization study in 37 501 adults recruited to UK Biobank (UKB) imaging centres from 2014, with secondary analyses in 6996 children assessed in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ABCD) recruited from 2018. Exposures were genetic variants for childhood (266 variants) and adult (470 variants) adiposity derived from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 407 741 UKB participants. Primary outcomes were: adult total brain volume; grey matter volume, thickness and surface area; white matter volume and hyperintensities; and hippocampus, amygdala and thalamus volumes at mean age 55 in the UKB. Secondary outcomes were equivalent childhood measures collected at mean age 10 in ABCD. In the UKB, individuals who were genetically predicted to have had higher levels of adiposity in childhood were found to have multiple smaller adult brain volumes relative to intracranial volume [e.g. z-score difference in normalized brain volume per category increase in adiposity-95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 (-0.28, -0.12); P = 4 × 10-6]. These effect sizes remained essentially unchanged after accounting for birthweight or current adult obesity in multivariable models, whereas most observed adult effects attenuated towards null [e.g. adult z-score (95% CI) for total volume = 0.06 (-0.05, 0.17); P = 0.3]. Observational analyses in ABCD showed a similar pattern of changes already present in those with a high body mass index by age 10 [z-score (95% CI) = -0.10 (-0.13, -0.07); P = 8 × 10-13], with follow-up genetic risk score analyses providing some evidence for a causal effect already at this early age. Sensitivity analyses revealed that many of these effects were likely due to the persistence of larger head sizes established in those who gained excess weight in childhood [childhood z-score (95% CI) for intracranial volume = 0.14 (0.05, 0.23); P = 0.002], rather than smaller brain sizes per se. Our data suggest that the persistence of early-life developmental differences across the life course may underlie numerous neuroimaging traits commonly attributed to obesity-related atrophy in later life., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.)

Background: Obesity particularly during childhood is considered a global public health crisis and has been linked with later life health consequences including mental health. However, there is lack of causal understanding if childhood body size has a direct effect on mental health or has an indirect effect after accounting for adulthood body size., Methods: Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to estimate the total effect and direct effect (accounting for adulthood body size) of childhood body size on anxiety and depression. We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of UK Biobank (n = 453,169) and large-scale consortia of anxiety (Million Veteran Program) and depression (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium) (n = 175,163 and n = 173,005, respectively)., Results: Univariable MR did not indicate genetically predicted effects of childhood body size with later life anxiety (beta = - 0.05, 95% CI = - 0.13, 0.02) and depression (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.94, 1.20). However, using multivariable MR, we observed that the higher body size in childhood reduced the risk of later life anxiety (beta = - 0.19, 95% CI = - 0.29, - 0.08) and depression (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.71, 0.97) upon accounting for the effect of adulthood body size. Both univariable and multivariable MR indicated that higher body size in adulthood increased the risk of later life anxiety and depression., Conclusions: Higher body size in adulthood may increase the risk of anxiety and depression, independent of childhood higher body size. In contrast, higher childhood body size does not appear to be a risk factor for later life anxiety and depression., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: We used publicly available summary statistics from published GWAS studies. Ethical approval and consent to participate in these GWAS was required and can be found in the respective publications. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: T.G.R. is a full-time employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this research. The other authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Genetic variants used as instruments for exposures in Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses may have horizontal pleiotropic effects (i.e., influence outcomes via pathways other than through the exposure), which can undermine the validity of results. We examined the extent of this using smoking behaviours as an example. We first ran a phenome-wide association study in UK Biobank, using a smoking initiation genetic instrument. From the most strongly associated phenotypes, we selected those we considered could either plausibly or not plausibly be caused by smoking. We examined associations between genetic instruments for smoking initiation, smoking heaviness and lifetime smoking and these phenotypes in UK Biobank and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We conducted negative control analyses among never smokers, including children. We found evidence that smoking-related genetic instruments were associated with phenotypes not plausibly caused by smoking in UK Biobank and (to a lesser extent) ALSPAC. We observed associations with phenotypes among never smokers. Our results demonstrate that smoking-related genetic risk scores are associated with unexpected phenotypes that are less plausibly downstream of smoking. This may reflect horizontal pleiotropy in these genetic risk scores, and we would encourage researchers to exercise caution this when using these and genetic risk scores for other complex behavioural exposures. We outline approaches that could be taken to consider this and overcome issues caused by potential horizontal pleiotropy, for example, in genetically informed causal inference analyses (e.g., MR) it is important to consider negative control outcomes and triangulation approaches, to avoid arriving at incorrect conclusions., (© 2024 The Author(s). Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified tens of thousands of disease associated variants and provided critical insights into developing effective treatments. However, limited sample sizes have hindered the discovery of variants for uncommon and rare diseases. Here, we introduce KGWAS, a novel geometric deep learning method that leverages a massive functional knowledge graph across variants and genes to improve detection power in small-cohort GWASs significantly. KGWAS assesses the strength of a variant's association to disease based on the aggregate GWAS evidence across molecular elements interacting with the variant within the knowledge graph. Comprehensive simulations and replication experiments showed that, for small sample sizes ( N =1-10K), KGWAS identified up to 100% more statistically significant associations than state-of-the-art GWAS methods and achieved the same statistical power with up to 2.67× fewer samples. We applied KGWAS to 554 uncommon UK Biobank diseases ( N case <5K) and identified 183 more associations (46.9% improvement) than the original GWAS, where the gain further increases to 79.8% for 141 rare diseases (N case <300). The KGWAS-only discoveries are supported by abundant functional evidence, such as rs2155219 (on 11q13) associated with ulcerative colitis potentially via regulating LRRC32 expression in CD4+ regulatory T cells, and rs7312765 (on 12q12) associated with the rare disease myasthenia gravis potentially via regulating PPHLN1 expression in neuron-related cell types. Furthermore, KGWAS consistently improves downstream analyses such as identifying disease-specific network links for interpreting GWAS variants, identifying disease-associated genes, and identifying disease-relevant cell populations. Overall, KGWAS is a flexible and powerful AI model that integrates growing functional genomics data to discover novel variants, genes, cells, and networks, especially valuable for small cohort diseases.

Disordered eating and self-harm commonly co-occur in young people suggesting potential for shared underlying causes. Body image dissatisfaction (BID) has been recognised as a psychological correlate of body size, associated with both disordered eating and self-harm. However, the investigation into etiological pathways early in the lifecourse to provide detail on how body size and BID may foster disordered eating and self-harm remains largely unexplored. Employing data from two large population-based cohorts, the UK Biobank and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC), we conducted bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) to determine the causal direction of effect between genetically predicted prepubertal body size and two measures of BID indicating (i) desire to be smaller, and (ii) desire to be larger. We then used multivariable regression followed by counterfactual mediation analyses. Bidirectional MR indicated robust evidence that increased genetically predicted prepubertal body size increased desire to be smaller and decreased desire to be larger. Evidence for the reverse causal direction was negligible. These findings remained very similar across sensitivity analyses. In females and males, multivariable regression analyses demonstrated that being overweight increased the risk of disordered eating (risk ratio (RR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.01 to 1.40 and 1.98, 1.28 to 3.05, respectively) and self-harm (RR, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.04 to 1.77 and 1.55, 0.86 to 2.81, respectively), while being underweight was protective against disordered eating (RR, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.40 to 0.81 and 0.81, 0.38 to 1.73, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increase in the risk of self-harm among underweight individuals. Mediation analyses indicated that the relationship between being overweight and subsequent disordered eating was largely mediated by the desire to be smaller. Our research carries important public health implications, suggesting distinct risk profiles for self-harm and disordered eating in relation to weight and body image. In addition, a better understanding of genetically predicted prepubertal BID may be valuable in the prevention and treatment of disordered eating and self-harm in adolescence., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TGR is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this research. All other authors declare no competing interests. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The UK Biobank study have obtained ethics approval from the Research Ethics Committee (REC; approval number: 11/NW/0382) and informed consent from all participants enrolled in UK Biobank. Estimates were derived using data from the UK Biobank (app #76538). Ethical approval for the study was obtained from the ALSPAC ethics and law committee and the local research ethics committees. Informed consent for the use of data collected via questionnaires and clinics was obtained from participants following the recommendations of the ALSPAC Ethics and Law Committee at the time., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Diseases diagnosed in adulthood may have antecedents throughout (including prenatal) life. Gaining a better understanding of how exposures at different stages in the lifecourse influence health outcomes is key to elucidating the potential benefits of disease prevention strategies. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is increasingly used to estimate causal effects of exposures across the lifecourse on later life outcomes. This systematic literature review explores MR methods used to perform lifecourse investigations and reviews previous work that has utilised MR to elucidate the effects of factors acting at different stages of the lifecourse. We conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Medline and MedRXiv databases. Thirteen methodological studies were identified. Four studies focused on the impact of time-varying exposures in the interpretation of "standard" MR techniques, five presented methods for repeat measures of the same exposure, and four described methodological approaches to handling multigenerational exposures. A further 127 studies presented the results of an applied research question. Over half of these estimated effects in a single generation and were largely confined to the exploration of questions regarding body composition. The remaining mostly estimated maternal effects. There is a growing body of research focused on the development and application of MR methods to address lifecourse research questions. The underlying assumptions require careful consideration and the interpretation of results rely on select conditions. Whilst we do not advocate for a particular strategy, we encourage practitioners to make informed decisions on how to approach a research question in this field with a solid understanding of the limitations present and how these may be affected by the research question, modelling approach, instrument selection, and data availability., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Observational epidemiological studies have reported an association between childhood adiposity and altered cardiac morphology and function in later life. However, whether this is due to a direct consequence of being overweight during childhood has been difficult to establish, particularly as accounting for other measures of body composition throughout the lifecourse can be exceptionally challenging., Methods and Results: In this study, we used human genetics to investigate this using a causal inference technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. This approach allowed us to evaluate the effect of childhood body size on 11 measures of right heart and pulmonary circulation independent of other anthropometric traits at various stages in the lifecourse. We found strong evidence that childhood body size has a direct effect on an enlarged right heart structure in later life (eg, right ventricular end-diastolic volume: β=0.24 [95% CI, 0.15-0.33]; P =3×10 -7 ) independent of adulthood body size. In contrast, childhood body size effects on maximum ascending aorta diameter attenuated upon accounting for body size in adulthood, suggesting that this effect is likely attributed to individuals remaining overweight into later life. Effects of childhood body size on pulmonary artery traits and measures of right atrial function became weaker upon accounting for adulthood fat-free mass and childhood height, respectively., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, although childhood body size has a long-term influence on an enlarged heart structure in adulthood, associations with the other structural components of the cardiovascular system and their function may be largely attributed to body composition at other stages in the lifecourse.

Purpose: To investigate the role of adiposity in the associations between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and head and neck cancer (HNC) and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort., Methods: Our study included 450,111 EPIC participants. We used Cox regressions to investigate the associations between the consumption of UPFs and HNC and OAC risk. A mediation analysis was performed to assess the role of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) in these associations. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated accidental death as a negative control outcome., Results: During a mean follow-up of 14.13 ± 3.98 years, 910 and 215 participants developed HNC and OAC, respectively. A 10% g/d higher consumption of UPFs was associated with an increased risk of HNC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.34) and OAC (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.47). WHR mediated 5% (95% CI 3-10%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and HNC risk, while BMI and WHR, respectively, mediated 13% (95% CI 6-53%) and 15% (95% CI 8-72%) of the association between the consumption of UPFs and OAC risk. UPF consumption was positively associated with accidental death in the negative control analysis., Conclusions: We reaffirmed that higher UPF consumption is associated with greater risk of HNC and OAC in EPIC. The proportion mediated via adiposity was small. Further research is required to investigate other mechanisms that may be at play (if there is indeed any causal effect of UPF consumption on these cancers)., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development., Methods: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers., Findings: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions., Interpretation: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk., Funding: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Tom G Richardson is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of the research presented in this manuscript. Mike Lean has received lecturing fees from Novo Nordisk, Roche, Merck, Sanofi Nestle and Oviva, recognises grants from Diabetes UK, NIHR, and All Sants Educational Trust, and consulting fees from Counterweight. Roy Taylor has received lecture honoraria from Eli Lilly, Nestle Health and Janssen and payment or honoraria from educational videos for European Association for the Study of Diabetes, and recognises grant support from Diabetes UK. Alex McConnachie recognises grant support from Diabetes UK. Emma Hazelwood recognises support for travel from the Harold Hyam Wingate Foundation, the European Cancer Prevention organization, and the European Association for Cancer Research, and sits on the IGES Ethical, Legal and Societal Issues committee. Naveed Sattar recognizes grant support from AstaZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, and Roche Diagnostics, has received consulting fees from Abbott Laboratories, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Hanmi Pharmaceuticals, Janssen, Marck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Roche Diagnostics, and Sanofi, and has received payment for lectures or manuscript writing from Abbott Laboratories, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Janssen, and Novo Nordisk. Paul Welsh recognizes grant support from AstraZeneca, Roche Diagnostics, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis, and payment for lectures or manuscript writing from Novo Nordisk and Raisio Nutrition. Rachel Pearlman is an executive council member of CGA-IGC. The remaining authors declare no competing interests. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affects over 25% of the population and currently has no effective treatments. Plasma proteins with causal evidence may represent promising drug targets. We aimed to identify plasma proteins in the causal pathway of MASLD and explore their interaction with obesity., Methods: We analysed 2,941 plasma proteins in 43,978 European participants from UK Biobank. We performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) for all MASLD-associated proteins and created the largest MASLD GWAS (109,885 cases/1,014,923 controls). We performed Mendelian Randomization (MR) and integrated proteins and their encoding genes in MASLD ranges to identify candidate causal proteins. We then validated them through independent replication, exome sequencing, liver imaging, bulk and single-cell gene expression, liver biopsies, pathway, and phenome-wide data. We explored the role of obesity by MR and multivariable MR across proteins, body mass index, and MASLD., Results: We found 929 proteins associated with MASLD, reported five novel genetic loci associated with MASLD, and identified 17 candidate MASLD protein targets. We identified four novel targets for MASLD (CD33, GRHPR, HMOX2, and SCG3), provided protein evidence supporting roles of AHCY, FCGR2B, ORM1, and RBKS in MASLD, and validated nine previously known targets. We found that CD33, FCGR2B, ORM1, RBKS, and SCG3 mediated the association of obesity and MASLD, and HMOX2, ORM1, and RBKS had effect on MASLD independent of obesity., Conclusions: This study identified new protein targets in the causal pathway of MASLD, providing new insights into the multi-omics architecture and pathophysiology of MASLD. These findings advise further therapeutic interventions for MASLD., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare the following competing interests: S.H., L.C., C.D., C.A.P.M., M.T., R.M., T.M. and J.M.M.H. are full-time employees of Novo Nordisk. T.G.R. was part-time employee of Novo Nordisk during the project running. J.L. is supported by a University of Oxford Novo Nordisk Research Fellowship. N.D. was supported by a University of Oxford Novo Nordisk Research Training Fellowship. The remaining authors declare no competing interests.

Evaluating the long-term consequences of childhood lifestyle factors on asthma risk can be exceptionally challenging in epidemiology given that cases are typically diagnosed at various timepoints throughout the lifecourse. In this study, we used human genetic data to evaluate the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity on risk of pediatric (n = 13,962 cases) and adult-onset asthma (n = 26,582 cases) with a common set of controls (n = 300,671) using a technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. We found that childhood adiposity directly increases risk of pediatric asthma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.03-1.37, p = 0.03), but limited evidence that it has an effect on adult-onset asthma after accounting for adiposity during adulthood (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.93-1.17, p = 0.39). Conversely, there was strong evidence that adulthood adiposity increases asthma risk in midlife (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.28-1.46, P = 7 × 10 -12 ). These findings suggest that childhood and adulthood adiposity are independent risk factors for asthma at each of their corresponding timepoints in the lifecourse., Competing Interests: T.G.R. is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this work. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2023.)

Background: Findings from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are conventionally interpreted as lifelong effects, which typically do not provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this study, we apply two recently developed MR approaches (known as 'lifecourse' and 'tissue-partitioned' MR) to investigate lifestage-specific effects and tissues of action in the relationship between adiposity and circulating leptin levels., Methods: Genetic instruments for childhood and adult adiposity were incorporated into a multivariable MR (MVMR) framework to estimate lifestage-specific effects on leptin levels measured during early life (mean age: 10 y) in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and in adulthood (mean age: 55 y) using summary-level data from the deCODE Health study. This was followed by partitioning body mass index (BMI) instruments into those whose effects are putatively mediated by gene expression in either subcutaneous adipose or brain tissues, followed by using MVMR to simultaneously estimate their separate effects on childhood and adult leptin levels., Results: There was strong evidence that childhood adiposity has a direct effect on leptin levels at age 10 y in the lifecourse (β = 1.10 SD change in leptin levels, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30, p=6 × 10 -28 ), whereas evidence of an indirect effect was found on adulthood leptin along the causal pathway involving adulthood body size (β = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62-0.86, p=1 × 10 -33 ). Tissue-partitioned MR analyses provided evidence to suggest that BMI exerts its effect on leptin levels during both childhood and adulthood via brain tissue-mediated pathways (β = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.22-1.36, p=6 × 10 -3 and β = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.69, p=1 × 10 -7 , respectively)., Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate the use of lifecourse MR to disentangle direct and indirect effects of early-life exposures on time-varying complex outcomes. Furthermore, by integrating tissue-specific data, we highlight the etiological importance of appetite regulation in the effect of adiposity on leptin levels., Funding: This work was supported by the Integrative Epidemiology Unit, which receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/1)., Competing Interests: TR TGR is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this work, GL, GD No competing interests declared, (© 2023, Richardson et al.)

Background: Genetic factors influence the risk of fatty liver disease (FLD) in adults. The aim of this study was to test if, and when, genetic risk factors known to affect FLD in adults begin to exert their deleterious effects during childhood, adolescence and early adulthood., Methods: We included up to 4018 British children and adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. Three genetic variants known to associate robustly with FLD in adults (PNPLA3 rs738409, TM6SF2 rs58542926 and HSD17B13 rs72613567) were tested for association with plasma levels of alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) during childhood (mean age: 9.9 years), early adolescence (15.5 years), late adolescence (17.8 years), and early adulthood (24.5 years). We also tested the associations of a 17-variant score and whole-genome polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from associations in adults with plasma ALT and AST at the same four time points. Associations with elastography-derived liver steatosis and fibrosis were tested in early adulthood., Results: Genetic risk factors for FLD (individually, combined into a 3-variant score, a 17-variant score and as a genome-wide PRS), were associated with higher liver enzymes, beginning in childhood and throughout adolescence and early adulthood. The ALT-increasing effects of the genetic risk variants became larger with increasing age. The ALT-PRS was associated with liver steatosis in early adulthood. No genetic associations with fibrosis were observed., Conclusions: Genetic factors that promote FLD in adults associate with elevated liver enzymes already during childhood, and their effects get amplified with increasing age., (© The Author(s) 2023; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background/objectives: Different genetic variants are associated with larger body size in childhood vs adulthood. Whether and when these variants predominantly influence adiposity are unknown. We examined how genetic variants influence total body fat and total lean mass trajectories., Methods: Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort (N = 6926). Sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for childhood and adulthood body size were generated, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans measured body fat and lean mass six times between the ages of 9 and 25 years. Multilevel linear spline models examined associations of GRS with fat and lean mass trajectories., Results: In males, the sex-specific childhood and adulthood GRS were associated with similar differences in fat mass from 9 to 18 years; 8.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1, 11.6] and 7.5% (95% CI 4.3, 10.8) higher fat mass at 18 years per standard deviation (SD) higher childhood and adulthood GRS, respectively. In males, the sex-combined childhood GRS had stronger effects at ages 9 to 15 than the sex-combined adulthood GRS. In females, associations for the sex-specific childhood GRS were almost 2-fold stronger than the adulthood GRS from 9 to 18 years: 10.5% (95% CI 8.5, 12.4) higher fat mass at 9 years per SD higher childhood GRS compared with 5.1% (95% CI 3.2, 6.9) per-SD higher adulthood GRS. In females, the sex-combined GRS had similar effects, with slightly larger effect estimates. Lean mass effect sizes were much smaller., Conclusions: Genetic variants for body size are more strongly associated with adiposity than with lean mass. Sex-combined childhood variants are more strongly associated with increased adiposity until early adulthood. This may inform future studies that use genetics to investigate the causes and impact of adiposity at different life stages., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

The Pharma Proteomics Project is a precompetitive biopharmaceutical consortium characterizing the plasma proteomic profiles of 54,219 UK Biobank participants. Here we provide a detailed summary of this initiative, including technical and biological validations, insights into proteomic disease signatures, and prediction modelling for various demographic and health indicators. We present comprehensive protein quantitative trait locus (pQTL) mapping of 2,923 proteins that identifies 14,287 primary genetic associations, of which 81% are previously undescribed, alongside ancestry-specific pQTL mapping in non-European individuals. The study provides an updated characterization of the genetic architecture of the plasma proteome, contextualized with projected pQTL discovery rates as sample sizes and proteomic assay coverages increase over time. We offer extensive insights into trans pQTLs across multiple biological domains, highlight genetic influences on ligand-receptor interactions and pathway perturbations across a diverse collection of cytokines and complement networks, and illustrate long-range epistatic effects of ABO blood group and FUT2 secretor status on proteins with gastrointestinal tissue-enriched expression. We demonstrate the utility of these data for drug discovery by extending the genetic proxied effects of protein targets, such as PCSK9, on additional endpoints, and disentangle specific genes and proteins perturbed at loci associated with COVID-19 susceptibility. This public-private partnership provides the scientific community with an open-access proteomics resource of considerable breadth and depth to help to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying proteo-genomic discoveries and accelerate the development of biomarkers, predictive models and therapeutics 1 ., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Observational studies suggest that mammographic density (MD) may have a role in the unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk. Here, we investigated a complex and interlinked relationship between puberty onset, adiposity, MD, and their effects on breast cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR). We estimated the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, and age at menarche on MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)) using MR and multivariable MR (MVMR), allowing us to disentangle their total and direct effects. Next, we examined the effect of MD on breast cancer risk, including risk of molecular subtypes, and accounting for genetic pleiotropy. Finally, we used MVMR to evaluate whether the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer was mediated by MD. Childhood adiposity had a strong inverse effect on mammographic DA, while adulthood adiposity increased NDA. Later menarche had an effect of increasing DA and PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect attenuated to the null. DA and PD had a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) estimates were extremely heterogeneous, and examination of the SNPs suggested different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, MR mediation analysis estimated that 56% (95% CIs [32% - 79%]) of the childhood adiposity effect on breast cancer risk was mediated via DA. In this work, we sought to disentangle the relationship between factors affecting MD and breast cancer. We showed that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, which subsequently leads to reduced breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is of great importance for identifying potential targets of intervention, since advocating weight gain in childhood would not be recommended., Competing Interests: Competing interests T.G.R. is employed by GSK outside of this work, for unrelated research. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Background: Multimorbidity, typically defined as having two or more long-term health conditions, is associated with reduced wellbeing and life expectancy. Understanding the determinants of multimorbidity, including whether they are causal, may help with the design and prioritisation of prevention interventions. This study seeks to assess the causality of education, BMI, smoking and alcohol as determinants of multimorbidity, and the degree to which BMI, smoking and alcohol mediate differences in multimorbidity by level of education., Methods: Participants were 181,214 females and 155,677 males, mean ages 56.7 and 57.1 years respectively, from UK Biobank. We used a Mendelian randomization design; an approach that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to interrogate causality., Results: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 55.1%. Mendelian randomization suggests that lower education, higher BMI and higher levels of smoking causally increase the risk of multimorbidity. For example, one standard deviation (equivalent to 5.1 years) increase in genetically-predicted years of education decreases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.0% (95% CI: 6.5 to 11.4%). A 5 kg/m 2 increase in genetically-predicted BMI increases the risk of multimorbidity by 9.2% (95% CI: 8.1 to 10.3%) and a one SD higher lifetime smoking index increases the risk of multimorbidity by 6.8% (95% CI: 3.3 to 10.4%). Evidence for a causal effect of genetically-predicted alcohol consumption on multimorbidity was less strong; an increase of 5 units of alcohol per week increases the risk of multimorbidity by 1.3% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.5%). The proportions of the association between education and multimorbidity explained by BMI and smoking are 20.4% and 17.6% respectively. Collectively, BMI and smoking account for 31.8% of the educational inequality in multimorbidity., Conclusions: Education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption are intervenable causal risk factors for multimorbidity. Furthermore, BMI and lifetime smoking make a considerable contribution to the generation of educational inequalities in multimorbidity. Public health interventions that improve population-wide levels of these risk factors are likely to reduce multimorbidity and inequalities in its occurrence., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Aims/hypothesis: Determining how high BMI at different time points influences the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and affects insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity is critical., Methods: By estimating childhood BMI in 441,761 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified which genetic variants had larger effects on adulthood BMI than on childhood BMI, and vice versa. All genome-wide significant genetic variants were then used to separate the independent genetic effects of high childhood BMI from those of high adulthood BMI on the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin-related phenotypes using Mendelian randomisation. We performed two-sample MR using external studies of type 2 diabetes, and oral and intravenous measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity., Results: We found that a childhood BMI that was one standard deviation (1.97 kg/m 2 ) higher than the mean, corrected for the independent genetic liability to adulthood BMI, was associated with a protective effect for seven measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, including increased insulin sensitivity index (β=0.15; 95% CI 0.067, 0.225; p=2.79×10 -4 ) and reduced fasting glucose levels (β=-0.053; 95% CI -0.089, -0.017; p=4.31×10 -3 ). However, there was little to no evidence of a direct protective effect on type 2 diabetes (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.85, 1.04; p=0.228) independently of genetic liability to adulthood BMI., Conclusions/interpretation: Our results provide evidence of the protective effect of higher childhood BMI on insulin secretion and sensitivity, which are crucial intermediate diabetes traits. However, we stress that our results should not currently lead to any change in public health or clinical practice, given the uncertainty regarding the biological pathway of these effects and the limitations of this type of study., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Lifecourse Mendelian randomization is a causal inference technique which harnesses genetic variants with time-varying effects to develop insight into the influence of age-dependent lifestyle factors on disease risk. Here, we apply this approach to evaluate whether childhood body size has a direct consequence on 8 major disease endpoints by analysing parental history data from the UK Biobank study.Our findings suggest that, whilst childhood body size increases later risk of outcomes such as heart disease (odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.23, P = 7.8 × 10 - 5 ) and diabetes (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.31 to 1.56, P = 9.4 × 10 - 15 ) based on parental history data, these findings are likely attributed to a sustained influence of being overweight for many years over the lifecourse. Likewise, we found evidence that remaining overweight throughout the lifecourse increases risk of lung cancer, which was partially mediated by lifetime smoking index. In contrast, using parental history data provided evidence that being overweight in childhood may have a protective effect on risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.78 to 0.97, P = 0.01), corroborating findings from observational studies and large-scale genetic consortia.Large-scale family disease history data can provide a complementary source of evidence for epidemiological studies to exploit, particularly given that they are likely more robust to sources of selection bias (e.g. survival bias) compared to conventional case control studies. Leveraging these data using approaches such as lifecourse Mendelian randomization can help elucidate additional layers of evidence to dissect age-dependent effects on disease risk., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Musculoskeletal conditions, including fractures, can have severe and long-lasting consequences. Higher body mass index in adulthood is widely acknowledged to be protective for most fracture sites. However, sources of bias induced by confounding factors may have distorted previous findings. Employing a lifecourse Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach by using genetic instruments to separate effects at different life stages, this investigation aims to explore how prepubertal and adult body size independently influence fracture risk in later life.Using data from a large prospective cohort, univariable and multivariable MR were conducted to simultaneously estimate the effects of age-specific genetic proxies for body size (n = 453,169) on fracture risk (n = 416,795). A two-step MR framework was additionally applied to elucidate potential mediators. Univariable and multivariable MR indicated strong evidence that higher body size in childhood reduced fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.82 to 0.96, P = 0.005 and 0.76, 0.69 to 0.85, P = 1 × 10 - 6 , respectively). Conversely, higher body size in adulthood increased fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.023 and 1.26, 1.14 to 1.38, P = 2 × 10 - 6 , respectively). Two-step MR analyses suggested that the effect of higher body size in childhood on reduced fracture risk was mediated by its influence on higher estimated bone mineral density (eBMD) in adulthood.This investigation provides novel evidence that higher body size in childhood reduces fracture risk in later life through its influence on increased eBMD. From a public health perspective, this relationship is complex since obesity in adulthood remains a major risk factor for co-morbidities. Results additionally indicate that higher body size in adulthood is a risk factor for fractures. Protective effect estimates previously observed are likely attributed to childhood effects., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether the impacts of childhood adiposity on adult-onset diabetes differ across proposed diabetes subtypes using a Mendelian randomisation (MR) design., Methods: We performed MR analysis using data from European genome-wide association studies of childhood adiposity, latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA, proxy for severe autoimmune diabetes), severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD) and mild age-related diabetes (MARD)., Results: Higher levels of childhood adiposity had positive genetically predicted effects on LADA (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.05, 2.52), SIDD (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.18, 3.80), SIRD (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.60, 4.75) and MOD (OR 7.30, 95% CI 4.17, 12.78), but not MARD (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.70, 1.60)., Conclusions/interpretation: Childhood adiposity is a risk factor not only for adult-onset diabetes primarily characterised by obesity or insulin resistance, but also for subtypes primarily characterised by insulin deficiency or autoimmunity. These findings emphasise the importance of preventing childhood obesity., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The rising prevalence of childhood obesity and dyslipidaemia is a major public health concern due to its association with morbidity and mortality in later life. Previous studies have found that genetic variants inherited at birth can begin to exert their effects on cardiometabolic traits during the early stages of the lifecourse. Methods: In this study, we have conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for eight measures of adiposity and lipids in a cohort of young individuals (mean age 9.9 years, sample sizes=4,202 to 5,766) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). These measures were body mass index (BMI), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, high- density and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-I and apolipoprotein B. We next undertook functional enrichment, pathway analyses and linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression to evaluate genetic correlations with later-life cardiometabolic diseases. Results: Using GWAS we identified 14 unique loci associated with at least one risk factor in this cohort of age 10 individuals (P<5x10 -8 ), with lipoprotein lipid-associated loci being enriched for liver tissue-derived gene expression and lipid synthesis pathways. LD score regression provided evidence of various genetic correlations, such as childhood systolic blood pressure being genetically correlated with later-life coronary artery disease (rG=0.26, 95% CI=0.07 to 0.46, P=0.009) and hypertension (rG=0.37, 95% CI=0.19 to 0.55, P=6.57x10 -5 ), as well as childhood BMI with type 2 diabetes (rG=0.35, 95% CI=0.18 to 0.51, P=3.28x10 -5 ). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there are genetic variants inherited at birth which begin to exert their effects on cardiometabolic risk factors as early as age 10 in the life course. However, further research is required to assess whether the genetic correlations we have identified are due to direct or indirect effects of childhood adiposity and lipid traits., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Dr Holmes has collaborated with Boehringer Ingelheim in research, and in adherence to the University of Oxford’s Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CSTU) staff policy, did not accept personal honoraria or other payments from pharmaceutical companies. TGR is employed by GlaxoSmithKline outside of this work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2023 O'Nunain K et al.)

Determining how high body-mass index (BMI) at different time points influences the risk of developing type two diabetes (T2D), and affects insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity, is critical. By estimating childhood BMI in 441,761 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified which genetic variants had larger effects on adulthood BMI than on childhood BMI, and vice-versa. All genome-wide significant genetic variants were then used to separate the independent genetic effects of high childhood BMI from high adulthood BMI on the risk of T2D and insulin related phenotypes using Mendelian randomisation and studies of T2D, and oral and intravenous measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity. We found that a 1.s.d. (= 1.97kg/m 2 ) higher childhood BMI, corrected for the independent genetic liability to adulthood BMI, was associated with a protective effect for seven measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, including an increased insulin sensitivity index (β = 0.15 [0.067, 0.225], p = 2.79×10 -4 ), and reduced fasting glucose (β = -0.053 [-0.089, -0.017], p = 4.31×10 -3 ). There was however little to no evidence of a direct protective effect on T2D (OR = 0.94 [0.85 - 1.04], p = 0.228), independently of genetic liability to adulthood BMI. Our results thus cumulatively provide evidence of the protective effect of higher childhood BMI on insulin secretion and sensitivity, which are crucial intermediate diabetes traits. However, we stress that our results should not currently lead to any change in public health or clinical practice, given the uncertainty in biological pathway of these effects, and the limitations of this type of study., Research in Context: High BMI in adulthood is associated with higher risk of type two diabetes, coupled with lower insulin sensitivity and secretion.Richardson et al [2020] used genetics to show that high BMI in childhood does not appear to increase the risk of type diabetes independently from its effect on adult BMI.We asked: does high childhood BMI affect insulin related traits such as fasting glucose and insulin sensitivity, independently of adulthood BMI?We used genetics to show that high childhood BMI has a protective effect on seven insulin sensitivity and secretion traits, including fasting glucose and measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, independently of adulthood BMI.Our work has the potential to turn conventional understanding on its head - high BMI in childhood improves insulin sensitivity (when adjusting for knock on effects to high adult BMI) and opens up important questions about plasticity in childhood and compensatory mechanisms.

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is known to influence the risk of various site-specific cancers, however, dissecting which subcomponents of this heterogenous risk factor are predominantly responsible for driving disease effects has proven difficult to establish. We have leveraged tissue-specific gene expression to separate the effects of distinct phenotypes underlying BMI on the risk of seven site-specific cancers., Methods: SNP-exposure estimates were weighted in a multivariable Mendelian randomisation analysis by their evidence for colocalization with subcutaneous adipose- and brain-tissue-derived gene expression using a recently developed methodology., Results: Our results provide evidence that brain-tissue-derived BMI variants are predominantly responsible for driving the genetically predicted effect of BMI on lung cancer (OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.01-1.36; P = 0.03). Similar findings were identified when analysing cigarettes per day as an outcome (Beta = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.26-0.61; P = 1.62 × 10 -6 ), highlighting a possible shared aetiology or mediator effect between brain-tissue BMI, smoking and lung cancer. Our results additionally suggest that adipose-tissue-derived BMI variants may predominantly drive the effect of BMI and increased risk for endometrial cancer (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.07-2.74; P = 0.02), highlighting a putatively important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer., Conclusions: The study provides valuable insight into the divergent underlying pathways between BMI and the risk of site-specific cancers., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Participant overlap can induce overfitting bias into Mendelian randomization (MR) and polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we evaluated a block jackknife resampling framework for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and PRS construction to mitigate overfitting bias in MR analyses and implemented this study design in a causal inference setting using data from the UK Biobank. We simulated PRS and MR under three scenarios: (1) using weighted SNP estimates from an external GWAS, (2) using weighted SNP estimates from an overlapping GWAS sample and (3) using a block jackknife resampling framework. Based on a P-value threshold to derive genetic instruments for MR studies (P < 5 × 10-8) and a 10% variance in the exposure explained by all SNPs, block-jackknifing PRS did not suffer from overfitting bias (mean R2 = 0.034) compared with the externally weighted PRS (mean R2 = 0.040). In contrast, genetic instruments derived from overlapping samples explained a higher variance (mean R2 = 0.048) compared with the externally derived score. Overfitting became considerably more severe when using a more liberal P-value threshold to construct PRS (e.g. P < 0.05, overlapping sample PRS mean R2 = 0.103, externally weighted PRS mean R2 = 0.086), whereas estimates using jackknife score remained robust to overfitting (mean R2 = 0.084). Using block jackknife resampling MR in an applied analysis, we examined the effects of body mass index on circulating biomarkers which provided comparable estimates to an externally weighted instrument, whereas the overfitted scores typically provided narrower confidence intervals. Furthermore, we extended this framework into sex-stratified, multivariate and bidirectional settings to investigate the effect of childhood body size on adult testosterone levels., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk., Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants., Results: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the second most prevalent malignancy in men worldwide. Observational studies have linked the use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) lowering therapies with reduced risk of PrCa, which may potentially be attributable to confounding factors. In this study, we performed a drug target Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to evaluate the association of genetically proxied inhibition of LDL-c-lowering drug targets on risk of PrCa., Methods and Findings: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with LDL-c (P < 5 × 10-8) from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium genome-wide association study (GWAS) (N = 1,320,016) and located in and around the HMGCR, NPC1L1, and PCSK9 genes were used to proxy the therapeutic inhibition of these targets. Summary-level data regarding the risk of total, advanced, and early-onset PrCa were obtained from the PRACTICAL consortium. Validation analyses were performed using genetic instruments from an LDL-c GWAS conducted on male UK Biobank participants of European ancestry (N = 201,678), as well as instruments selected based on liver-derived gene expression and circulation plasma levels of targets. We also investigated whether putative mediators may play a role in findings for traits previously implicated in PrCa risk (i.e., lipoprotein a (Lp(a)), body mass index (BMI), and testosterone). Applying two-sample MR using the inverse-variance weighted approach provided strong evidence supporting an effect of genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 (equivalent to a standard deviation (SD) reduction in LDL-c) on lower risk of total PrCa (odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76 to 0.96, P = 9.15 × 10-3) and early-onset PrCa (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.52 to 0.95, P = 0.023). Genetically proxied HMGCR inhibition provided a similar central effect estimate on PrCa risk, although with a wider 95% CI (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.62 to 1.13, P = 0.244), whereas genetically proxied NPC1L1 inhibition had an effect on higher PrCa risk with a 95% CI that likewise included the null (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 0.87 to 2.04, P = 0.180). Analyses using male-stratified instruments provided consistent results. Secondary MR analyses supported a genetically proxied effect of liver-specific PCSK9 expression (OR = 0.90 per SD reduction in PCSK9 expression, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.95, P = 5.50 × 10-5) and circulating plasma levels of PCSK9 (OR = 0.93 per SD reduction in PCSK9 protein levels, 95% CI = 0.87 to 0.997, P = 0.04) on PrCa risk. Colocalization analyses identified strong evidence (posterior probability (PPA) = 81.3%) of a shared genetic variant (rs553741) between liver-derived PCSK9 expression and PrCa risk, whereas weak evidence was found for HMGCR (PPA = 0.33%) and NPC1L1 expression (PPA = 0.38%). Moreover, genetically proxied PCSK9 inhibition was strongly associated with Lp(a) levels (Beta = -0.08, 95% CI = -0.12 to -0.05, P = 1.00 × 10-5), but not BMI or testosterone, indicating a possible role for Lp(a) in the biological mechanism underlying the association between PCSK9 and PrCa. Notably, we emphasise that our estimates are based on a lifelong exposure that makes direct comparisons with trial results challenging., Conclusions: Our study supports a strong association between genetically proxied inhibition of PCSK9 and a lower risk of total and early-onset PrCa, potentially through an alternative mechanism other than the on-target effect on LDL-c. Further evidence from clinical studies is needed to confirm this finding as well as the putative mediatory role of Lp(a)., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: DG is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work. TGR is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of this research. TRG and GDS receives funding from Biogen for unrelated research. GDS is an Academic Editor on PLOS Medicine’s editorial board. All other co-authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright: © 2023 Fang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Polygenic scores (PGS) are becoming an increasingly popular approach to predict complex disease risk, although they also hold the potential to develop insight into the molecular profiles of patients with an elevated genetic predisposition to disease., Methods: We sought to construct an atlas of associations between 125 different PGS derived using results from genome-wide association studies and 249 circulating metabolites in up to 83,004 participants from the UK Biobank., Results: As an exemplar to demonstrate the value of this atlas, we conducted a hypothesis-free evaluation of all associations with glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), an inflammatory biomarker. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization, we find that the associations highlighted likely reflect the effect of risk factors, such as adiposity or liability towards smoking, on systemic inflammation as opposed to the converse direction. Moreover, we repeated all analyses in our atlas within age strata to investigate potential sources of collider bias, such as medication usage. This was exemplified by comparing associations between lipoprotein lipid profiles and the coronary artery disease PGS in the youngest and oldest age strata, which had differing proportions of individuals undergoing statin therapy. Lastly, we generated all PGS-metabolite associations stratified by sex and separately after excluding 13 established lipid-associated loci to further evaluate the robustness of findings., Conclusions: We envisage that the atlas of results constructed in our study will motivate future hypothesis generation and help prioritize and deprioritize circulating metabolic traits for in-depth investigations. All results can be visualized and downloaded at http://mrcieu.mrsoftware.org/metabolites&#95;PRS&#95;atlas., Funding: This work is supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust, the British Heart Foundation, and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit., Competing Interests: SF, GD No competing interests declared, MH MVH has consulted for Boehringer Ingelheim, and in adherence to the University of Oxford's Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CSTU) staff policy, did not accept personal honoraria or other payments from pharmaceutical companies, TG TRG receives funding from Biogen for unrelated research, TR TGR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work, (© 2022, Fang et al.)

Background and Objectives: Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are a commonly prescribed class of medication used to treat heart failure, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. However, previous observational studies have shown conflicting directions of associations between ACE inhibitors and risk of Alzheimer disease. Genetic evidence has supported a protective effect of cerebral ACE against Alzheimer disease (AD). However, it is unclear whether this effect is mediated through blood pressure and extends to other neurodegenerative diseases., Methods: We performed genetic colocalization investigating an effect of cortical ACE expression on AD risk in people of European ancestry. We further investigated whether any effect of ACE expression on AD risk is mediated through changes in blood pressure and whether effects extend to Parkinson disease, small-vessel disease, or cognitive function in a Mendelian randomization paradigm., Results: There was genetic evidence supporting a protective effect of cortical ACE expression on AD risk in people of European ancestry. Although higher cortical ACE expression was associated with higher blood pressure, there was no strong evidence to support that its association with AD was mediated through blood pressure nor that ACE expression affected risk of other neurodegenerative traits., Discussion: Genetic evidence supports protective effects of cerebral ACE expression on AD, but not other neurodegenerative outcomes in people of European ancestry. Further work is required to investigate whether therapeutic inhibition of ACE increases risk of Alzheimer disease., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Background: Interleukin 6 (IL-6) signaling is being investigated as a therapeutic target for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). While changes in circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) are used as a marker of IL-6 signaling, it is not known whether there is effect heterogeneity in relation to baseline hsCRP levels or other cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to explore the association of genetically predicted IL-6 signaling with CVD risk across populations stratified by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors., Methods: Among 397,060 White British UK Biobank participants without known CVD at baseline, we calculated a genetic risk score for IL-6 receptor (IL-6R)-mediated signaling, composed of 26 variants at the IL6R gene locus. We then applied linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses exploring associations with a combined endpoint of incident coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease, aortic aneurysm, and cardiovascular death stratifying by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors., Results: The study participants (median age 59 years, 53.9% females) were followed-up for a median of 8.8 years, over which time a total of 46,033 incident cardiovascular events occurred. Genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling activity was associated with higher CVD risk (hazard ratio per 1-mg/dL increment in absolute hsCRP levels: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06-1.17). The increase in CVD risk was linearly related to baseline absolute hsCRP levels. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association of genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling with CVD risk when stratifying the population by sex, age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, or systolic blood pressure, but there was evidence of greater associations in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dL., Conclusions: Any benefit of inhibiting IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction is likely to be proportional to absolute reductions in hsCRP levels. Therapeutic inhibition of IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction should therefore prioritize those individuals with the highest baseline levels of hsCRP., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The genetic underpinning of sexual dimorphism is very poorly understood. The prevalence of many diseases differs between men and women, which could be in part caused by sex-specific genetic effects. Nevertheless, only a few published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed separately in each sex. The reported enrichment of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) among GWAS-associated SNPs suggests a potential role of sex-specific eQTLs in the sex-specific genetic mechanism underlying complex traits., Methods: To explore this scenario, we combined sex-specific whole blood RNA-seq eQTL data from 3447 European individuals included in BIOS Consortium and GWAS data from UK Biobank. Next, to test the presence of sex-biased causal effect of gene expression on complex traits, we performed sex-specific transcriptome-wide Mendelian randomization (TWMR) analyses on the two most sexually dimorphic traits, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and testosterone levels. Finally, we performed power analysis to calculate the GWAS sample size needed to observe sex-specific trait associations driven by sex-biased eQTLs., Results: Among 9 million SNP-gene pairs showing sex-combined associations, we found 18 genes with significant sex-biased cis-eQTLs (FDR 5%). Our phenome-wide association study of the 18 top sex-biased eQTLs on >700 traits unraveled that these eQTLs do not systematically translate into detectable sex-biased trait-associations. In addition, we observed that sex-specific causal effects of gene expression on complex traits are not driven by sex-specific eQTLs. Power analyses using real eQTL- and causal-effect sizes showed that millions of samples would be necessary to observe sex-biased trait associations that are fully driven by sex-biased cis-eQTLs. Compensatory effects may further hamper their detection., Conclusions: Our results suggest that sex-specific eQTLs in whole blood do not translate to detectable sex-specific trait associations of complex diseases, and vice versa that the observed sex-specific trait associations cannot be explained by sex-specific eQTLs., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing with an aging worldwide population, yet a comprehensive understanding of its causes and consequences remains limited. We aim to assess the causes and consequences of AF via a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis., Methods: We used publicly available genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data, centralized and harmonized by an open GWAS database. We assessed the genetically predicted effects of 5048 exposures on risk of AF, and the genetically predicted effects of genetic liability to AF, on 10 308 outcomes via two-sample MR analysis. Multivariable MR analysis was further conducted to explore the comparative roles of identified risk factors., Results: MR analysis suggested that 55 out of 5048 exposure traits, including four proteins, play a causal role in AF (P <1e-5 allowing for multiple comparisons). Multivariable analysis suggested that higher body mass index, height and systolic blood pressure as well as genetic liability to coronary artery diseases independently cause AF. Three out of the four proteins (DUSP13, TNFSF12 and IL6R) had a drug prioritizing score for atrial fibrillation of 0.26, 0.38 and 0.88, respectively (values closer to 1 indicating stronger evidence of the protein as a potential drug target). Genetic liability to AF was linked to a higher risk of cardio-embolic ischaemic stroke., Conclusions: Our results suggest body mass index, height, systolic blood pressure and genetic liability to coronary artery disease are independent causal risk factors for AF. Several proteins, including DUSP13, IL-6R and TNFSF12, may have therapeutic potential for AF., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Vitamin D supplements are widely prescribed to help reduce disease risk. However, this strategy is based on findings using conventional epidemiological methods which are prone to confounding and reverse causation., Methods: In this short report, we leveraged genetic variants which differentially influence body size during childhood and adulthood within a multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, allowing us to separate the genetically predicted effects of adiposity at these two timepoints in the lifecourse., Results: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), there was strong evidence that higher childhood body size has a direct effect on lower vitamin D levels in early life (mean age: 9.9 years, range = 8.9-11.5 years) after accounting for the effect of the adult body size genetic score (beta = -0.32, 95% CI = -0.54 to -0.10, p=0.004). Conversely, we found evidence that the effect of childhood body size on vitamin D levels in midlife (mean age: 56.5 years, range = 40-69 years) is putatively mediated along the causal pathway involving adulthood adiposity (beta = -0.17, 95% CI = -0.21 to -0.13, p=4.6 × 10 -17 )., Conclusions: Our findings have important implications in terms of the causal influence of vitamin D deficiency on disease risk. Furthermore, they serve as a compelling proof of concept that the timepoints across the lifecourse at which exposures and outcomes are measured can meaningfully impact overall conclusions drawn by MR studies., Funding: This work was supported by the Integrative Epidemiology Unit which receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC&#95;UU&#95;00011/1)., Competing Interests: TR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk on work outside of the work reported in this study, GP, GD No competing interests declared, (© 2022, Richardson et al.)

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) is a powerful tool in epidemiology that can be used to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unobserved confounding, by utilising genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) for the exposure. The effect estimates obtained from MR studies are often interpreted as the lifetime effect of the exposure in question. However, the causal effects of some exposures are thought to vary throughout an individual's lifetime with periods during which an exposure has a greater effect on a particular outcome. Multivariable MR (MVMR) is an extension of MR that allows for multiple, potentially highly related, exposures to be included in an MR estimation. MVMR estimates the direct effect of each exposure on the outcome conditional on all the other exposures included in the estimation. We explore the use of MVMR to estimate the direct effect of a single exposure at different time points in an individual's lifetime on an outcome. We use simulations to illustrate the interpretation of the results from such analyses and the key assumptions required. We show that causal effects at different time periods can be estimated through MVMR when the association between the genetic variants used as instruments and the exposure measured at those time periods varies. However, this estimation will not necessarily identify exact time periods over which an exposure has the most effect on the outcome. Prior knowledge regarding the biological basis of exposure trajectories can help interpretation. We illustrate the method through estimation of the causal effects of childhood and adult BMI on C-Reactive protein and smoking behaviour., Competing Interests: I have read the journals policy and the authors of this manuscripts have the following competing interests: TGR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work. KT has undertaken paid consultancy work for CHDI unrelated to this work. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Background: The direct effects of general adiposity (body mass index (BMI)) and central adiposity (waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR)) on circulating lipoproteins, lipids, and metabolites are unknown., Methods: We used new metabolic data from UK Biobank ( N =109,532, a five-fold higher N over previous studies). EDTA-plasma was used to quantify 249 traits with nuclear-magnetic-resonance spectroscopy including subclass-specific lipoprotein concentrations and lipid content, plus pre-glycemic and inflammatory metabolites. We used univariable and multivariable two-stage least-squares regression models with genetic risk scores for BMI and WHR as instruments to estimate total (unadjusted) and direct (mutually-adjusted) effects of BMI and WHR on metabolic traits; plus effects on statin use and interaction by sex, statin use, and age (proxy for medication use)., Findings: Higher BMI decreased apolipoprotein B and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) before and after WHR-adjustment, whilst BMI increased triglycerides only before WHR-adjustment. These effects of WHR were larger and BMI-independent. Direct effects differed markedly by sex, e.g., triglycerides increased only with BMI among men, and only with WHR among women. Adiposity measures increased statin use and showed metabolic effects which differed by statin use and age. Among the youngest (38-53y, statins-5%), BMI and WHR (per-SD) increased LDL-C (total effects: 0.04-SD, 95%CI=-0.01,0.08 and 0.10-SD, 95%CI=0.02,0.17 respectively), but only WHR directly. Among the oldest (63-73y, statins-29%), BMI and WHR directly lowered LDL-C (-0.19-SD, 95%CI=-0.27,-0.11 and -0.05-SD, 95%CI=-0.16,0.06 respectively)., Interpretation: Excess adiposity likely raises atherogenic lipid and metabolite levels exclusively via adiposity stored centrally, particularly among women. Apparent effects of adiposity on lowering LDL-C are likely explained by an effect of adiposity on statin use., Funding: UK Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; Novo Nordisk; National Institute for Health Research; Wellcome Trust; Cancer Research UK., Competing Interests: MVH has collaborated with Boehringer Ingelheim in research, and in adherence to the University of Oxford's Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CSTU) staff policy, did not accept personal honoraria or other payments from pharmaceutical companies. MVH owns stock in 23andMe. TGR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work. HJ, AC, and PW are employees of Nightingale Health Plc, a company offering nuclear magnetic resonance–based biomarker profiling. HJ, AC and PW hold stock options or shares in Nightingale Health Plc., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Children with obesity typically have larger left ventricular heart dimensions during adulthood. However, whether this is due to a persistent effect of adiposity extending into adulthood is challenging to disentangle due to confounding factors throughout the lifecourse. We conducted a multivariable mendelian randomization (MR) study to separate the independent effects of childhood and adult body size on 4 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of heart structure and function in the UK Biobank (UKB) study. Strong evidence of a genetically predicted effect of childhood body size on all measures of adulthood heart structure was identified, which remained robust upon accounting for adult body size using a multivariable MR framework (e.g., left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV), Beta = 0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23 to 0.43, P = 4.6 × 10-10). Sensitivity analyses did not suggest that other lifecourse measures of body composition were responsible for these effects. Conversely, evidence of a genetically predicted effect of childhood body size on various other MRI-based measures, such as fat percentage in the liver (Beta = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.05 to 0.23, P = 0.002) and pancreas (Beta = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.33, P = 3.9 × 10-4), attenuated upon accounting for adult body size. Our findings suggest that childhood body size has a long-term (and potentially immutable) influence on heart structure in later life. In contrast, effects of childhood body size on other measures of adulthood organ size and fat percentage evaluated in this study are likely explained by the long-term consequence of remaining overweight throughout the lifecourse., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: TGR is employed part-time by Novo Nordisk outside of this work. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest.