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In Huntington's disease research, a current goal is to understand how symptoms change prior to a clinical diagnosis. Statistically, this entails modeling symptom severity as a function of the covariate 'time until diagnosis', which is often heavily right-censored in observational studies. Existing estimators that handle right-censored covariates have varying statistical efficiency and robustness to misspecified models for nuisance distributions (those of the censored covariate and censoring variable). On one extreme, complete case estimation, which utilizes uncensored data only, is free of nuisance distribution models but discards informative censored observations. On the other extreme, maximum likelihood estimation is maximally efficient but inconsistent when the covariate's distribution is misspecified. We propose a semiparametric estimator that is robust and efficient. When the nuisance distributions are modeled parametrically, the estimator is doubly robust, i.e., consistent if at least one distribution is correctly specified, and semiparametric efficient if both models are correctly specified. When the nuisance distributions are estimated via nonparametric or machine learning methods, the estimator is consistent and semiparametric efficient. We show empirically that the proposed estimator, implemented in the R package sparcc, has its claimed properties, and we apply it to study Huntington's disease symptom trajectories using data from the Enroll-HD study.

Confounding and exposure measurement error can introduce bias when drawing inference about the marginal effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest. While there are broad methodologies for addressing each source of bias individually, confounding and exposure measurement error frequently co-occur and there is a need for methods that address them simultaneously. In this paper, corrected score methods are derived under classical additive measurement error to draw inference about marginal exposure effects using only measured variables. Three estimators are proposed based on g-formula, inverse probability weighting, and doubly-robust estimation techniques. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and the doubly-robust estimator is shown to exhibit its namesake property. The methods, which are implemented in the R package mismex, perform well in finite samples under both confounding and measurement error as demonstrated by simulation studies. The proposed doubly-robust estimator is applied to study the effects of two biomarkers on HIV-1 infection using data from the HVTN 505 preventative vaccine trial.

Several long-period binaries with a carbon-rich Wolf-Rayet star and an O star produce dust in their wind collisions. In eccentric binaries, this is seen most strongly near periastron passage. The exact conditions leading to dust creation require orbital properties to be determined, which is difficult owing to their long periods. Recently, the binary system WR 125 (WC7+O9III) began a dust creation episode seen through an infrared outburst first detected by NEOWISE-R, which was the first outburst detected since 1991. We present new near- and mid-infrared photometry, which we use to show consistency between the two outbursts and derive an orbital period of 28.12$^{+0.10}_{-0.05}$ yr. We use a long time-series of optical spectra to place the first constraints on its orbital elements, on the assumption that this system will produce dust near periastron. The orbit has a mild eccentricity of 0.29$\pm$0.12 and is only derived for the Wolf-Rayet component, as the O star's radial velocities have noise that is likely larger than the expected semi-amplitude of the orbit. We also present SOFIA/FORCAST grism spectroscopy to examine the infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) of the dust during this outburst, comparing its properties to other WCd binaries, deriving a dust temperature of 580 K in 2021. This collection of observations will allow us to plan future observations of this system and place the system in the context of dust-creating Wolf-Rayet binaries., Comment: accepted to ApJ

A majority of language technologies are tailored for a small number of high-resource languages, while relatively many low-resource languages are neglected. One such group, Creole languages, have long been marginalized in academic study, though their speakers could benefit from machine translation (MT). These languages are predominantly used in much of Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean. We present the largest cumulative dataset to date for Creole language MT, including 14.5M unique Creole sentences with parallel translations -- 11.6M of which we release publicly, and the largest bitexts gathered to date for 41 languages -- the first ever for 21. In addition, we provide MT models supporting all 41 Creole languages in 172 translation directions. Given our diverse dataset, we produce a model for Creole language MT exposed to more genre diversity than ever before, which outperforms a genre-specific Creole MT model on its own benchmark for 26 of 34 translation directions., Comment: NAACL 2024

Eta Carinae underwent the Great Eruption in the 1840s and a Lesser Eruption in the 1890s. Its apparent spectrum, modified by intervening ejecta, the Homunculus and Little Homunculus, continues to evolve but contains information pertaining to events in the 19th century. The LOS spectrum contains narrow absorption velocities, from -122 to -1665 km/s: rungs of a broken ladder caused by shells formed by the interacting winds. Estimated shell origin dates correlate with origin dates of expanding emission structures preceding the Great Eruption. The LOS absorption velocities extend the record post Great Eruption to the Lesser Eruption. We suggest that these shells originated from a binary merger within a triple system. Shells formed not only from periastron passages of the current secondary, but also from ear-like extensions preceding and following the periastron event. Additional models need to be considered., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

Changes in the flux and spectrum of Eta Carinae since 1900 have been attributed to the evolution of the central binary by some. Others suggest evolution in the occulting ejecta. The brightness jump in the 1940s, which coincided with the appearance of narrow forbidden emission lines, may have been caused by the clearing and ionization of intervening circumstellar ejecta. The brightening changed at a slower pace up through forty years later. Here we continue earlier studies focused on the long-term showing that the forbidden line emission increased in the early 1990s with no noticeable increase in the brightness of the Homunculus. We interpret that the increase in narrow line emission is due to decreased extinction in the LOS from the central binary to the Weigelt clumps. In 2000, the central stellar core increased in brightness at a faster rate without associated changes in the Homunculus. By 2018, hundreds of narrow-line absorptions from singly-ionized metals in our LOS from Eta Carinae disappeared, thought to be caused by increased ionization of metals. These three events (1990, 2000, and 2018) are explained by the dissipation of circumstellar material within the Homunculus close to the binary. Combining these changes with the steadiness of the Homunculus and the primary winds over the past four decades indicates that circumstellar ejecta in our direction have been cleared., Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, to appear in ApJ

We present infrared aperture masking interferometry (AMI) observations of newly formed dust from the colliding winds of the massive binary system Wolf-Rayet (WR) 137 with JWST using the Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS). NIRISS AMI observations of WR 137 and a point-spread-function calibrator star, HD~228337, were taken using the F380M and F480M filters in 2022 July and August as part of the Director's Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program 1349. Interferometric observables (squared visibilities and closure phases) from the WR 137 "interferogram" were extracted and calibrated using three independent software tools: ImPlaneIA, AMICAL, and SAMpip. The analysis of the calibrated observables yielded consistent values except for slightly discrepant closure phases measured by ImPlaneIA. Based on all three sets of calibrated observables, images were reconstructed using three independent software tools: BSMEM, IRBis, and SQUEEZE. All reconstructed image combinations generated consistent images in both F380M and F480M filters. The reconstructed images of WR 137 reveal a bright central core with a $\sim300$ mas linear filament extending to the northwest. A geometric colliding-wind model with dust production constrained to the orbital plane of the binary system and enhanced as the system approaches periapsis provided a general agreement with the interferometric observables and reconstructed images. Based on a colliding-wind dust condensation analysis, we suggest that dust formation within the orbital plane of WR 137 is induced by enhanced equatorial mass-loss from the rapidly rotating O9 companion star, whose axis of rotation is aligned with that of the orbit., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ. Updated plotting error in Fig. 2

The adoption of diagnosis and prognostic algorithms in healthcare has led to concerns about the perpetuation of bias against disadvantaged groups of individuals. Deep learning methods to detect and mitigate bias have revolved around modifying models, optimization strategies, and threshold calibration with varying levels of success. Here, we generate a data-centric, model-agnostic, task-agnostic approach to evaluate dataset bias by investigating the relationship between how easily different groups are learned at small sample sizes (AEquity). We then apply a systematic analysis of AEq values across subpopulations to identify and mitigate manifestations of racial bias in two known cases in healthcare - Chest X-rays diagnosis with deep convolutional neural networks and healthcare utilization prediction with multivariate logistic regression. AEq is a novel and broadly applicable metric that can be applied to advance equity by diagnosing and remediating bias in healthcare datasets.

Be X-ray binaries (Be XRBs) are high-mass X-ray binaries, with a neutron star or black hole orbiting and accreting material from a non-supergiant B-star that is rotating at a near critical rate. These objects are prime targets to understand past binary interactions as the neutron star or black hole progenitor likely experienced Roche lobe overflow to spin up the Be star we observe now. The stellar variability can then allow us to explore the stellar structure of these objects. It was recently demonstrated that the high-mass X-ray binary CPD -29 2176 descended from an ultra-stripped supernova and is a prime target to evolve into an eventual binary neutron star and kilonova. We present the photometric variability from both TESS and ASAS along with the spectral properties and disk variability of the system in this paper. All of the optical lines are contaminated with disk emission except for the He II $\lambda$4686 absorption line. The disk variability time-scales are not the same as the orbital time scale, but could be related to the X-ray outbursts that have been recorded by Swift. We end our study with a discussion comparing CPD -29 2176 to classical Be stars and other Be X-ray binaries, finding the stellar rotation to be near a frequency of 1.5 cycles d$^{-1}$, and exhibiting incoherent variability in three frequency groups., Comment: accepted to ApJ

The bright WN4 star EZ CMa exhibits a 3.77 day periodicity in photometry, spectroscopy, and polarimetry but the variations in the measurements are not strictly phase-locked, exhibiting changes in reference times, amplitudes, and the shape of the variability happening over times as short as a few weeks. Recently, 137 days of contiguous, variable photometry from BRITE-Constellation was interpreted as caused either by large-scale dense wind structures modulated by rotation, or by a fast-precessing binary having a slightly shorter 3.626 day orbital period and a fast apsidal motion rate of $1315^\circ\,\text{yr}^{-1}$. We aim at testing the latter hypothesis through analysis of spectroscopy and focus on the N\,{\sc v} $\lambda\,4945$ line. We derive an orbital solution for the system and reject the 3.626 day period to represent the variations in the radial velocities of EZ CMa. An orbital solution with an orbital period of 3.77 days was obtained but at the cost of an extremely high and thus improbable apsidal motion rate. Our best orbital solution yields a period of $3.751\pm0.001$\,days with no apsidal motion. We place our results in the context of other variability studies and system properties. While we cannot fully reject the precessing binary model, we find that the corotating interaction region (CIR) hypothesis is better supported by these and other data through qualitative models of CIRs., Comment: accepted to MNRAS

Neural Cellular Automata (NCA) are a powerful combination of machine learning and mechanistic modelling. We train NCA to learn complex dynamics from time series of images and PDE trajectories. Our method is designed to identify underlying local rules that govern large scale dynamic emergent behaviours. Previous work on NCA focuses on learning rules that give stationary emergent structures. We extend NCA to capture both transient and stable structures within the same system, as well as learning rules that capture the dynamics of Turing pattern formation in nonlinear Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). We demonstrate that NCA can generalise very well beyond their PDE training data, we show how to constrain NCA to respect given symmetries, and we explore the effects of associated hyperparameters on model performance and stability. Being able to learn arbitrary dynamics gives NCA great potential as a data driven modelling framework, especially for modelling biological pattern formation., Comment: For videos referenced in appendix, see: https://github.com/AlexDR1998/NCA/tree/main/Videos

WR 137 (HD 192641) is a binary system consisting of a carbon-rich Wolf-Rayet star and an Oe companion star in a 13-year orbit. Near periastron, the winds of the two stars collide and form carbonaceous dust. We obtained three mid-infrared grism spectra of the system with SOFIA and FORCAST during the last year of SOFIA's operations in July 2021, February 2021, and May 2022 (Cycle 9). Within these spectra, we have identified several wind lines from He I, He II, C III, and C IV that are emitted from the Wolf-Rayet wind as well as a weak emission feature around 6.3-6.4 $\mu$m that may have shifted its peak flux from 6.29 to 6.41$\mu$m through this time period. The weak feature grew as the continuum dust emission grew while the WR emission appeared to decline due to lower contrast with the continuum. Furthermore, we observe that the peak of the feature shifts to redder wavelengths during the observations. We compare this feature to the UIR feature and other emission lines identified in dusty WC binaries. For WR 137, we speculate that mixing of the winds in the system with the Oe star's disk is important for starting the dust formation and that it is less important as dust formation continues. Previous infrared photometry shows "mini-eruptions" of dust production which could then be explained with variations of the Oe star disk., Comment: 13 pages, accepted to ApJ

Previous STIS long-slit observations of Eta Carinae identified numerous absorption features in both the stellar spectrum, and in the adjacent nebular spectra, along our line-of-sight. The absorption features became temporarily stronger when the ionizing FUV radiation field was reduced by the periastron passage of the secondary star. Subsequently, dissipation of a dusty structure in our LOS has led to a long-term increase in the apparent magnitude of \ec, an increase in the ionizing UV radiation, and the disappearance of absorptions from multiple velocity-separated shells extending across the foreground Homunculus lobe. We use HST/STIS spectro-images, coupled with published infrared and radio observations, to locate this intervening dusty structure. Velocity and spatial information indicate the occulter is ~1000 au in front of Eta Carinae. The Homunculus is a transient structure composed of dusty, partially-ionized ejecta that eventually will disappear due to the relentless rain of ionizing radiation and wind from the current binary system along with dissipation and mixing with the ISM. This evolving complex continues to provide an astrophysical laboratory that changes on human timescales., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, submitted to ApJ

People living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy often have undetectable virus levels by standard assays, but "latent" HIV still persists in viral reservoirs. Eliminating these reservoirs is the goal of HIV cure research. The quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) is commonly used to estimate the reservoir size, i.e., the infectious units per million (IUPM) of HIV-persistent resting CD4+ T cells. A new variation of the QVOA, the Ultra Deep Sequencing Assay of the outgrowth virus (UDSA), was recently developed that further quantifies the number of viral lineages within a subset of infected wells. Performing the UDSA on a subset of wells provides additional information that can improve IUPM estimation. This paper considers statistical inference about the IUPM from combined dilution assay (QVOA) and deep viral sequencing (UDSA) data, even when some deep sequencing data are missing. Methods are proposed to accommodate assays with wells sequenced at multiple dilution levels and with imperfect sensitivity and specificity, and a novel bias-corrected estimator is included for small samples. The proposed methods are evaluated in a simulation study, applied to data from the University of North Carolina HIV Cure Center, and implemented in the open-source R package SLDeepAssay., Comment: Main text is 13 pages, including 2 figures and 2 tables. Supporting information follows the main text

Ultra-stripped supernovae are different from other terminal explosions of massive stars, as they show little or no ejecta from the actual supernova event. They are thought to occur in massive binary systems after the exploding star has lost its surface through interactions with its companion. Such supernovae produce little to no kick, leading to the formation of a neutron star without loss of the binary companion, which itself may also evolve into another neutron star. Here we show that a recently discovered high-mass X-ray binary, CPD -29 2176 (CD -29 5159; SGR 0755-2933), has an evolutionary history that shows the neutron star component formed during an ultra-stripped supernova. The binary has orbital elements that are similar both in period and in eccentricity to one of 14 Be X-Ray binaries that have both known orbital periods and eccentricities. The identification of the progenitors systems for ultra-stripped supernovae is necessary as their evolution pathways leads to the formation of a binary neutron star systems. Binary neutron stars, such as the system that produced the kilonova GW170817 that was observed with both electromagnetic and gravitational energy, are known to produce a large quantity of heavy elements., Comment: published in Nature, February 1, 2023

The binary eta Carinae is the closest example of a very massive star, which may have formed through a merger during its Great Eruption in the mid-nineteenth century. We aimed to confirm and improve the kinematics using a spectroscopic data set taken with the CTIO 1.5 m telescope over the time period of 2008-2020, covering three periastron passages of the highly eccentric orbit. We measure line variability of H-alpha and H-beta, where the radial velocity and orbital kinematics of the primary star were measured from the H-beta emission line using a bisector method. At phases away from periastron, we observed the He II 4686 emission moving opposite the primary star, consistent with a possible Wolf-Rayet companion, although with a seemingly narrow emission line. This could represent the first detection of emission from the companion., Comment: 11 pages, accepted to MNRAS

Eta Carinae ($\eta$\,Car) exhibits a unique set of P Cygni profiles with both broad and narrow components. Over many decades, the spectrum has changed -- there has been an increase in observed continuum fluxes and a decrease in FeII and HI emission line equivalent widths. The spectrum is evolving towards that of a P Cygni star such as P~Cygni itself and HDE~316285. The spectral evolution has been attributed to intrinsic variations such as a decrease in the mass-loss rate of the primary star or differential evolution in a latitudinal-dependent stellar wind. However intrinsic wind changes conflict with three observational results: the steady long-term bolometric luminosity; the repeating X-ray light curve over the binary period; and the constancy of the dust-scattered spectrum from the Homunculus. We extend previous work that showed a secular strengthening of P~Cygni absorptions by adding more orbital cycles to overcome temporary instabilities and by examining more atomic transitions. {\sc cmfgen} modeling of the primary wind shows that a time-decreasing mass-loss rate is not the best explanation for the observations. However, models with a `small' dissipating absorber in our line-of-site can explain both the increase in brightness and changes in the emission and P Cygni absorption profiles. If the spectral evolution is caused by the dissipating circumstellar medium, and not by intrinsic changes in the binary, the dynamical timescale to recover from the Great Eruption is much less than a century, different from previous suggestions., Comment: 71 pages, 8 figures, 4 long tables, to appear on ApJ

Massive colliding-wind binaries that host a Wolf-Rayet (WR) star present a potentially important source of dust and chemical enrichment in the interstellar medium (ISM). However, the chemical composition and survival of dust formed from such systems is not well understood. The carbon-rich WR (WC) binary WR~140 presents an ideal astrophysical laboratory for investigating these questions given its well-defined orbital period and predictable dust-formation episodes every 7.93 years around periastron passage. We present observations from our Early Release Science program (ERS1349) with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) Medium-Resolution Spectrometer (MRS) and Imager that reveal the spectral and spatial signatures of nested circumstellar dust shells around WR~140. MIRI MRS spectroscopy of the second dust shell and Imager detections of over 17 shells formed throughout the past $\gtrsim130$ years confirm the survival of carbonaceous dust grains from WR~140 that are likely carriers of "unidentified infrared" (UIR)-band features at 6.4 and 7.7 $\mu$m. The observations indicate that dust-forming WC binaries can enrich the ISM with organic compounds and carbonaceous dust., Comment: Published in Nature Astronomy on Oct 12, 2022; 21 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables

The Na D absorption doublet in the spectrum of $\eta$ Carinae is complex, with multiple absorption features associated with the Great Eruption (1840s), the Lesser Eruption (1890s), and interstellar clouds. The velocity profile is further complicated by the P Cygni profile originating in the system's stellar winds and blending with the He I $\lambda$5876 profile. The Na D profile contains a multitude of absorption components, including those at velocities of $-$145 km s$^{-1}$, $-$168 km s$^{-1}$, and $+$87 km s$^{-1}$ that we concentrate on in this analysis. Ground-based spectra recorded from 2008 to 2021 show significant variability of the $-$145 km s$^{-1}$ absorption throughout long-term observations. In the high ionization phases of $\eta$ Carinae prior to the 2020 periastron passage, this feature disappeared completely but briefly reappeared across the 2020 periastron, along with a second absorption at $-$168 km s$^{-1}$. Over the past few decades, $\eta$ Car has been gradually brightening demonstrated to be caused by a dissipating occulter. The decreasing absorption of the $-$145 km s$^{-1}$ component, coupled with similar trends seen in absorptions of ultraviolet resonant lines, indicate that this central occulter was possibly a large clump associated with the Little Homunculus or another clump between the Little Homunculus and the star. We also report on a foreground absorption component at $+$87 km s$^{-1}$. Comparison of Na D absorption in the spectra of nearby systems demonstrates that this red-shifted component likely originates in an extended foreground structure consistent with a previous ultraviolet spectral survey in the Carina Nebula., Comment: 8 figures, 13 pages plus online data, accepted to ApJ

The winds of massive stars are important for their direct impact on the interstellar medium, and for their influence on the final state of a star prior to it exploding as a supernova. However, the dynamics of these winds is understood primarily via their illumination from a single central source. The Doppler shift seen in resonance lines is a useful tool for inferring these dynamics, but the mapping from that Doppler shift to the radial distance from the source is ambiguous. Binary systems can reduce this ambiguity by providing a second light source at a known radius in the wind, seen from orbitally modulated directions. From the nature of the collision between the winds, a massive companion also provides unique additional information about wind momentum fluxes. Since massive stars are strong ultraviolet (UV) sources, and UV resonance line opacity in the wind is strong, UV instruments with a high resolution spectroscopic capability are essential for extracting this dynamical information. Polarimetric capability also helps to further resolve ambiguities in aspects of the wind geometry that are not axisymmetric about the line of sight, because of its unique access to scattering direction information. We review how the proposed MIDEX-scale mission Polstar can use UV spectropolarimetric observations to critically constrain the physics of colliding winds, and hence radiatively-driven winds in general. We propose a sample of 20 binary targets, capitalizing on this unique combination of illumination by companion starlight, and collision with a companion wind, to probe wind attributes over a range in wind strengths. Of particular interest is the hypothesis that the radial distribution of the wind acceleration is altered significantly, when the radiative transfer within the winds becomes optically thick to resonance scattering in multiple overlapping UV lines., Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures, Review in a topical collection series of Astrophysics and Space Sciences on the proposed Polstar satellite. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2111.11552

We report high-precision X-ray monitoring observations in the 0.4-10 keV band of the luminous, long-period colliding-wind binary Eta Carinae up to and through its most recent X-ray minimum/periastron passage in February 2020. Eta Carinae reached its observed maximum X-ray flux on 7 January 2020, at a flux level of $3.30 \times 10^{-10}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$, followed by a rapid plunge to its observed minimum flux, $0.03 \times 10^{-10}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$ near 17 February 2020. The NICER observations show an X-ray recovery from minimum of only $\sim$16 days, the shortest X-ray minimum observed so far. We provide new constraints of the "deep" and "shallow" minimum intervals. Variations in the characteristic X-ray temperature of the hottest observed X-ray emission indicate that the apex of the wind-wind "bow shock" enters the companion's wind acceleration zone about 81 days before the start of the X-ray minimum. There is a step-like increase in column density just before the X-ray minimum, probably associated with the presence of dense clumps near the shock apex. During recovery and after, the column density shows a smooth decline, which agrees with previous $N_{H}$ measurements made by SWIFT at the same orbital phase, indicating that changes in mass-loss rate are only a few percent over the two cycles. Finally, we use the variations in the X-ray flux of the outer ejecta seen by NICER to derive a kinetic X-ray luminosity of the ejecta of $\sim 10^{41}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ near the time of the "Great Eruption'.

FUV spectra of Eta Car, recorded across two decades with HST/STIS, document multiple changes in resonant lines caused by dissipating extinction in our line of sight. The FUV flux has increased nearly ten-fold which has led to increased ionization of the multiple shells within the Homunculus and photo-destruction of molecular hydrogen. Comparison of observed resonant line profiles with CMFGEN model profiles allows separation of wind-wind collision and shell absorptions from the primary wind, P Cygni profiles.The dissipating occulter preferentially obscured the central binary and interacting winds relative to the very extended primary wind. We are now able to monitor changes in the colliding winds with orbital phase. High velocity transient absorptions occurred across the most recent periastron passage, indicating acceleration of the primary wind by the secondary wind which leads to a downstream, high velocity bowshock that is newly generated every orbital period. There is no evidence of changes in the properties of the binary winds., Comment: 36 pages, 22 figures, accepted Astrophysical Journal

We present a first comparison of Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) heliosheath measurements, remotely sensed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission and the Ion and Neutral Camera (INCA) on the Cassini mission, with modeled ENA inferred from interstellar pickup protons that have been accelerated at the termination shock, using hybrid simulations. The observed ENA intensities are an average value over the time period from 2009 to the end of 2012, along the Voyager 2 trajectory. The hybrid simulations parameters for the solar wind, interstellar pickup ions (PUIs), and magnetic field upstream of the termination shock, where Voyager 2 crossed, are based on observations. We report an energy dependent discrepancy between observed and simulated ENA fluxes, with the observed ENA fluxes, being consistently higher than the simulated ones, and discuss possible causes of this discrepancy., Comment: 19 pages, 2 Figures, it has been submitted to The Astrophysical Journal Letters

The colliding wind binary WR140 produces dust in its shocked gas every periastron passage. While the infrared light curve is very repeatable, there are noticeable changes every cycle in the optical time-series photometry. In the phases following periastron, there are optical dips in the light curve that were postulated to be caused by localized clumps in the dust produced in our line of sight. We report on the B and V-band light curves that were recorded by the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) after the 2016 periastron event and briefly discuss comparisons to geometric models of the dust production to infer that these features are likely caused by localized dust clumps in the new dust shell., Comment: accepted to AAS Journals

One objective of the Polstar spectropolarimetry mission is to characterize the degree of nonconservative mass transfer that occurs at various stages of binary evolution, from the initial mass reversal to the late Algol phase. The proposed instrument combines spectroscopic and polarimetric capabilities, where the spectroscopy can resolve Doppler shifts in UV resonance lines with 10 km/s precision, and polarimetry can resolve linear polarization with 1e-3 precision or better. The spectroscopy will identify absorption by mass streams seen in projection against the stellar disk as a function of orbital phase, hot accretion spots, as well as scattering from extended splash structures, circumbinary disks, and other flows in and above/below the orbital plane (e.g. jets) that fail to be transferred conservatively. The polarimetry affects more the light coming from material not seen against the stellar disk, allowing the geometry of the scattering to be tracked, resolving ambiguities left by the spectroscopy and light-curve information. For example, nonconservative mass streams ejected in the polar direction will produce polarization of the opposite sign from conservative transfer accreting in the orbital plane. Also, time domain coverage over a range of phases of the binary orbit are well supported by the Polstar observing strategy. Combining these elements will significantly improve our understanding of the mass transfer process and the amount of mass that can escape from the system, an important channel for changing the final mass, and ultimate supernova, of the large number of massive stars found in binaries at close enough separation to undergo interaction., Comment: Refereed paper in Ap&SS 367:Topical Collection, 23 pages, 10 figures

As sources of chemical enrichment, ionizing radiation and energetic feedback, massive stars drive the ecology of their host galaxies despite their relative rarity, additionally to yielding compact remnants, which can generate gravitational waves. The evolution of massive stars is crucially informed by their detailed mass-loss history; however, wind structures on a variety of scales cause important uncertainties on their mass-loss rates. Binary systems can place further constraints on the mass-loss properties of massive stars, especially colliding-wind binaries. In this paper, we review how the proposed MIDEX-scale mission Polstar can critically constrain the physics of colliding winds (and hence radiatively-driven winds in general) with ultraviolet spectropolarimetric observations, providing an unprecedented improvement on the accuracy of the determination of both mass-loss rates and the velocity structure of the winds of massive stars. We propose a sample of 17 targets that will allow us to study a variety of wind-colliding systems spanning a large parameter space using the spatial information yielded by both spectroscopic and polarimetric data obtained with Polstar., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures 1 table, Whitepaper