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Many clinical psychologists have claimed that long-term sexual recidivism rates are a fixed multiple of short-term rates and have estimated that the true value of this constant falls somewhere between 1.5 and 3.0. They have also proposed that it is "mathematically sound" for evaluators to estimate the long-term rate for any actuarial score in sexually violent predator civil commitment cases by multiplying its short-term rate by this constant. The present paper questions the "constant multiplier assumption" and summarizes disconfirming data collected by its proponents and others showing that the fixed ratios for groups with low short-term rates are actually greater than the ratios for groups with high short-term rates. These results rule out the use of the constant multiplier assumption by risk evaluators. It is concerning that this assumption has not been previously tested. The authors call on the developers of risk assessment systems to collect and report data that clearly validate the assumptions that underpin their actuarial tables before they are disseminated or administered. The American Psychological Association ethical standards also require forensic evaluators to acknowledge the limitations of their risk assessments when they testify, a practice that is invaluable to the trier of fact. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved). Language: en

Psychiatrist and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) text editor Michael First has criticized the addition of victim counts to criteria proposed by the Paraphilia Sub-Workgroup for inclusion in DSM-5 because they will increase false-positive diagnoses. Psychologist and Chair of the DSM-5 Paraphilia Sub-Workgroup, Ray Blanchard, responded by publishing a study of pedohebephiles and teleiophiles which seemed to show that victim counts could accurately identify pedohebephiles who were selected per self-report and phallometric testing. His analysis was flawed because it did not conform to conventional clinical practice and because he sampled groups at opposite ends of the clinical spectrum. In an analysis of his full sample, we found the false-positive rate for pedohebephilia at the recommended victim count selection points was indeed very large. Why? Because data analyses that eliminate intermediate data points will generate inflated estimates of correlation coefficients, base rates, and the discriminative capacity of predictor variables. This principle is also relevant for understanding the flaws in previous research that led Hanson and Bussiere to conclude that sexual recidivism was correlated with "sexual interest in children as measured by phallometric assessment." The credibility of mental health professionals rests on the reliability of their research. Conducting, publishing, and citing research that reflects adequate sampling and cautious diagnostic theorizing are critical for preserving this credibility. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Language: en

The original version of Static-99 is widely used for assessing sexual recidivism. It does not, however, account for the negative effect of age on recidivism. Hanson (2006, Sexual Abuse, 18, 343-355) took up this problem by disseminating an updated experience table for Static-99, based on 3425 sex offenders, that was stratified by four rows of risk categories and five columns of age categories. Contrary to expectations, updated Static-99 reported that the highest group-wise recidivism rates accrued to sex offenders in the second youngest category. The explanation for this inconsistency is that the entries in updated Static-99 are misspecified for the youngest offenders because, in effect, Hanson used one scoring system for assigning older offenders to risk groups and another for the classification of younger offenders. Updated Static-99, therefore, needs to be respecified. We applied a Bayesian algorithm to do so. Updated Static-99 holds out so many advantages that we believe it is unethical for evaluators to use original Static-99 unless they can present overwhelming evidence in support of this choice. Other contributions of respecifying updated Static-99 are discussed.

Forensic psychologists have approached sexually violent predator (SVP) civil commitment evaluations from the position that respondents must be positive for a condition from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) of the American Psychiatric Association to be classified as SVPs. The only research on DSM diagnostic reliability in SVP cases has been undertaken by J. S. Levenson (2004a) and R. L. Packard and J. Levenson (2006). Although Packard and Levenson claimed that diagnostic evaluations in SVP cases were highly reliable, a reanalysis of their data indicated otherwise. Further, high levels of diagnostic uncertainty were found for a proposed paraphilia referred to as paraphilia not otherwise specified‐ nonconsent. Diagnostic criteria used to identify paraphilias among SVP respondents are therefore characterized by poor reliability. Logic models that were previously used to determine diagnostic confidence are also obsolete. Recommendations for improving diagnostic reliability are discussed, and the Null-Bayes Logic Model (NBLM) is proposed as a method for reaching certainty opinions that is superior to past models based on unrestrained clinical judgment. The implications of the present results and the NBLM for future practice, research, and policy directions are discussed.

The author applied Bayes’s theorem to agewise sexual recidivism rates and the accuracy of high actuarial scores for predicting sexual recidivism in civil commitment cases. Recidivism rates consistently declined with age, paralleling the ageinvariance pattern found for other offenders. Furthermore, actuarials were efficient for only the youngest group, were inaccurate for identifying recidivists, and misclassified many nonrecidivists as recidivists. Opinions about the accuracy of actuarials are therefore often wrong, and actuarials need to be reformulated. Finally, actuarials are useless for identifying likely sexual recidivists from populations with recidivism base rates below .25. Recommendations include seeking new trials in cases that overlooked age, focusing attention on young offenders, limiting commitment periods, and shifting resources from commitment centers to impact all offenders released to the community.

Wollert's (2002) paper on actuarial tests that are used for the prediction of sexual recidivism (ATSRs) showed that the recidivism rates for the score groups in the MnSOST-R developmental sample were inflated, and that they “shrank” by as much as 44 percentage points on cross-validation. Doren and Dow (2002) present an analysis of Wollert's (2002) research and an alternative study that they claim demonstrated a lack of shrinkage. This commentary presents a critique of Doren and Dow's response. Various considerations indicate that the original cross-validation was appropriate. Doren and Dow's alternative was also found to be unacceptably flawed. Additional analyses cast doubt on the MnSOST-R's validity coefficients and its relevance for identifying likely recidivists, and a consensus was apparent that the MnSOST-R experience table for the developmental sample should not be used in civil commitment hearings. Finally, a number of guidelines for the development of ATSRs were reviewed. In particular, ...

Many states have passed laws for the civil commitment of sexually violent predators. Experts who testify at commitment hearings often base their opinions on actuarial tests for the prediction of sexual recidivism (ATSRs). Reliance on actuarial tests is promising, but they need to be accurate. Cross-validation is a widely recommended procedure for determining accuracy. In this paper the predictive accuracy of an ATSR called the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was evaluated from a cross-validational perspective. The original predictions of the MnSOST-R were found to be greatly inflated. Dissemination of the MnSOST-R without adequate cross-validational research raises serious doubts about its adequacy. It also creates doubt in the professional community that other ATSRs might have been disseminated without sufficient attention to important test construction standards. Formulating a set of standards targeted specifically on the construction of ATSRs would be helpful to test d...

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5), Task Force has recently rejected the proposal to include coercive paraphilia as an official diagnosis, reaffirming that rape is a crime and not a mental disorder. We hope this will discourage what has been the inappropriate practice of giving rapists the made-up diagnosis of paraphilia, NOS, nonconsent, to facilitate their psychiatric commitment under sexually violent predator (SVP) statutes. Losing the paraphilia, NOS, option has tempted some SVP evaluators to overdiagnose sexual sadism, which is an official DSM mental disorder. To prevent this improper application and to clarify those rare instances in which this diagnosis might apply, we present a brief review of the research on sexual sadism; an annotation of its definitions that have been included in the DSM since the Third Edition, published in 1980, and in the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Edition (ICD-10); and a two-step process for making a diagnostic decision. Rape and sexual sadism have in common violence, cruelty, and a callous indifference on the part of the perpetrator to the suffering of the victim, but they differ markedly in motivation. Rapists use violence to enforce the victim's cooperation, to express aggression, or both. In contrast, in sexual sadism, the violence, domination, and infliction of pain and humiliation are a preferred or necessary precondition for sexual arousal. Only a small proportion of rapists qualify for the diagnosis of sexual sadism.

Psychiatrist and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV) text editor Michael First has criticized the addition of victim counts to criteria proposed by the Paraphilia Sub-Workgroup for inclusion in DSM-5 because they will increase false-positive diagnoses. Psychologist and Chair of the DSM-5 Paraphilia Sub-Workgroup, Ray Blanchard, responded by publishing a study of pedohebephiles and teleiophiles which seemed to show that victim counts could accurately identify pedohebephiles who were selected per self-report and phallometric testing. His analysis was flawed because it did not conform to conventional clinical practice and because he sampled groups at opposite ends of the clinical spectrum. In an analysis of his full sample, we found the false-positive rate for pedohebephilia at the recommended victim count selection points was indeed very large. Why? Because data analyses that eliminate intermediate data points will generate inflated estimates of correlation coefficients, base rates, and the discriminative capacity of predictor variables. This principle is also relevant for understanding the flaws in previous research that led Hanson and Bussiere to conclude that sexual recidivism was correlated with "sexual interest in children as measured by phallometric assessment." The credibility of mental health professionals rests on the reliability of their research. Conducting, publishing, and citing research that reflects

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

Expert witnesses in sexually violent predator (SVP) cases often rely on actuarial instruments to make risk determinations. Many questions surround their use, however. Bayes's Theorem holds much promise for addressing these questions. Some experts nonetheless claim that Bayesian analyses are inadmissible in SVP cases because they are not accepted by the relevant scientific community. This position is illogical because Bayes's Theorem is simply a probabilistic restatement of the way that frequency data are combined to arrive at whatever recidivism rates are paired with each test score in an actuarial table. This article presents a mathematical proof and example validating this assertion. The advantages and implications of a logic model that combines Bayes's Theorem and the null hypothesis are also discussed.

This paper presents the results of an analysis that evaluated the assumptions and arguments set forth in a recent paper (Doren, 1998), which concluded that clinicians under-predict the risk that candidates for commitment as dangerous sex offenders will recidivate. This analysis indicates that such a conclusion is untenable because almost all of the assertions on which it is based might be disputed in one way or another. These flaws undermine the paper's value as a source of secondary authority in hearings pertaining to the commitment of dangerous sex offenders. Nonetheless, its publication will probably be beneficial for professional practice in this arena because it raises several important issues that stand in need of resolution. Language: en

Remediating the dysfunctional communications patterns of sexually abusive families is an important step in treating them. No communications training program for such families has been evaluated, however. This paper describes an evaluation of a communications training program carried out within the context of a self-help group for sexually abusive families. Group members were randomly assigned to receive an eight-week communications training program or to continue participating at self-help meetings. No group differences were apparent on a preintervention communications questionnaire, but the posttraining scores of experimental subjects were higher than controls. Experimental subjects maintained these scores upon follow-up and the scores of controls increased when the program was administered to them by a student therapist. It is suggested that the procedures and findings of this study contribute to the community mental health field by a) underscoring communications concepts that are helpful to abusive families; b) modeling a novel design for evaluating interventions that includes self-help participation as a nonspecific treatment; and c) illustrating the value of collaborative efforts between self-help groups and human services providers when they serve their mutual interests.

This article describes perfectionism, or the holding of and striving for unrealistically high standards, and presents two studies undertaken to investigate the convergent, discriminant, and predictive validity of the Perfectionism Scale (PS; Burns, 1980). College students in the first study completed the PS, several other measures of high standards, and measures of constructs that, conceptually, are differentially related to perfectionism. Correlational analyses indicated that the Perfectionism Scale has convergent and discriminant validity and seems to measure self-oriented perfectionism. The second study attempted to determine the predictive validity of the PS by testing a vulnerability model of subclinical depression outlined in Hewitt and Dyck (1986). PS scores were used to predict depressed mood changes in female college students following failure on important and unimportant tasks. As expected, the results indicated that perfectionism interacted with failure on important versus unimportant tasks to produce dysphoric mood. Evidence for the predictive validity of the PS was thus shown. Several directions for future research are discussed.

Self-help groups hold the potential for helping many people adjust to health difficulties and life stresses. Self-help clearing-houses represent a community-centred approach to developing and realizing this potential. Several papers describing specific clearing-houses have been published, but a comprehensive survey of these organizations has not yet been completed. This article reports the results of such a survey, in which a majority of existing North American clearing-houses participated. Clearing-houses were found to have evolved rapidly in the last ten years, to the point that they now provide an array of informational, educational, and consultative services to catchment areas that contain over 70 million people. Although clearing-houses offer a unique perspective on the self-help movement and may make important contributions to physical and mental health, they also face technical, philosophical, and funding issues. Considering their tenacity and the robust rate at which they are being established, however, it seems likely that these and other problems will be solved, and that clearing-houses will become an established feature of the human services landscape.

A natural history is reported for an agency-supported self-help group for sexually abusive families. Four developmental stages of the group are identified as a) development of the idea, b) operationalization of the group, C) promotion of community recognition, and d) achievement of organizational goals and group consolidation. Experiences drawn from the natural history are discussed in terms of the guidelines tbey suggest for the development of other agency-supported self-help groups.

The causal-locus hypothesis (CLH) asserts that persons making internal attributions for failure and external attributions for success experience more negative postoutcome moods than persons making the opposite attributions. Three experiments assessed the CLH. Although outcomes consistently affected moods and attributions, attributions did not affect moods. Significant correlations consistent with the CLH were also infrequently obtained. Another theory, the sanctioned-object hypothesis (SOH), was proposed for understanding how causal attributions lead to mood changes. This hypothesis asserts that the application of positive or negative sanctions to objects in the perceptual field is a central determinant of mood and that attributions affect mood when their content and salience activate sanctioning processes. A fourth experiment evaluated the competing theories. The results supported the SOH but not the CLH. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding mood variations and the effects that moods have on the construction of attributions and for adopting methodological alternatives that may be valuable for future laboratory research studying mood variations.

Many clearinghouses have been organized within the last decade to promote mutual aid and to provide referral information about self-help groups to potential members. Few of the assumptions that underpin the operation of these programs have been evaluated, however. This paper presents an evaluation of the Self-Help Information Service, a clearinghouse integrated with a generic information and referral service. The results were generally positive with respect to operator and consumer satisfaction, community responsiveness, and the system's capacity to undertake numerous service and research functions. They also pointed up several changes that might be made to improve the system's impact. It is concluded that a new practice specialty might be developed within a clearinghouse context, and that the clearinghouse concept might serve as one cornerstone of a funding policy that supports the self-help approach.