Search

Abstract Background Action on smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in primary care is effective and cost-effective, but implementation is low. The aim was to examine the effectiveness of strategies to increase the implementation of preventive healthcare in primary care. Methods CINAHL, CENTRAL, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Dissertations & Theses – Global, Embase, Europe PMC, MEDLINE and PsycINFO were searched from inception through 5 October 2023 with no date of publication or language limits. Randomised trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies and interrupted time series studies comparing implementation strategies (team changes; changes to the electronic patient registry; facilitated relay of information; continuous quality improvement; clinician education; clinical reminders; financial incentives or multicomponent interventions) to usual care were included. Two reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed bias with an adapted Cochrane risk of bias tool for Effective Practice and Organisation of Care reviews. Meta-analysis was conducted with random-effects models. Narrative synthesis was conducted where meta-analysis was not possible. Outcome measures included process and behavioural outcomes at the closest point to 12 months for each implementation strategy. Results Eighty-five studies were included comprising of 4,210,946 participants from 3713 clusters in 71 cluster trials, 6748 participants in 5 randomised trials, 5,966,552 participants in 8 interrupted time series, and 176,061 participants in 1 controlled before after study. There was evidence that clinical reminders (OR 3.46; 95% CI 1.72–6.96; I 2 = 89.4%), clinician education (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.46–2.46; I 2 = 80.6%), facilitated relay of information (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.10–3.46, I 2 = 88.2%), and multicomponent interventions (OR 3.10; 95% CI 1.60–5.99, I 2 = 96.1%) increased processes of care. Multicomponent intervention results were robust to sensitivity analysis. There was no evidence that other implementation strategies affected processes of care or that any of the implementation strategies improved behavioural outcomes. No studies reported on interventions specifically designed for remote consultations. Limitations included high statistical heterogeneity and many studies did not account for clustering. Conclusions Multicomponent interventions may be the most effective implementation strategy. There was no evidence that implementation interventions improved behavioural outcomes. Trial registration PROSPERO CRD42022350912.

Abstract Background Restricted activity is a potential early marker of declining health in older adults. Previous studies of this association with patient outcomes have been inconclusive. This review aimed to evaluate the extent to which restricted activity is associated with decline in health. Methods A search was conducted for studies including people over 65 years old which investigated the association between measures of restricted activity and hospitalisation, cognitive decline, and mortality. Following data extraction by two reviewers, eligible studies were summarised using Inverse Variance Heterogeneity meta-analysis. Results The search identified 8,434 unique publications, with 11 eligible studies. Three measures of restricted activity were identified: bed rest, restricted movement, and dependency for activities of daily living (ADL). Three studies looked at hospitalisations, with two finding a significant association with bed rest or restricted movement and one showing no evidence of an association. Restricted activity was associated with a significant increase in mortality across all three measures (bed rest odds ratio [OR] 6.34, 95%CI 2.51–16.02, I2 = 76%; restricted movement OR 5.38 95%CI 2.60–11.13, I2 = 69%; general ADL dependency OR 4.65 95%CI 2.25–9.26, I2 = 84%). The significant heterogeneity observed could not be explained by restricting the analysis by length of follow-up, or measure of restricted activity. No meta-analysis was conducted on the limited evidence for cognitive decline outcomes. Conclusions Limited studies have considered the prognostic value of restricted activity in terms of predicting future declining health. Current evidence suggests restricted activity is associated with hospitalisation and mortality, and therefore could identify a group for whom early intervention might be possible.

BackgroundAntihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data.Methods and findingsThis was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out.ConclusionsAntihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment.

Summary: Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the “sources of uncertainty” framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

ObjectivesThe aim was to investigate the impact of a group-based weight management programme on symptoms of depression and anxiety compared with self-help in a randomised controlled trial (RCT).MethodPeople with overweight (Body Mass Index [BMI]≥28kg/m2) were randomly allocated self-help (n = 211) or a group-based weight management programme for 12 weeks (n = 528) or 52 weeks (n = 528) between 18/10/2012 and 10/02/2014. Symptoms were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, at baseline, 3, 12 and 24 months. Linear regression modelling examined changes in Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale between trial arms.ResultsAt 3 months, there was a -0.6 point difference (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1, -0.1) in depression score and -0.1 difference (95% CI, -0.7, 0.4) in anxiety score between group-based weight management programme and self-help. At subsequent time points there was no consistent evidence of a difference in depression or anxiety scores between trial arms. There was no evidence that depression or anxiety worsened at any time point.ConclusionsThere was no evidence of harm to depression or anxiety symptoms as a result of attending a group-based weight loss programme. There was a transient reduction in symptoms of depression, but not anxiety, compared to self-help. This effect equates to less than 1 point out of 21 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and is not clinically significant.

Background: Long-term monitoring is important in chronic condition management. Despite considerable costs of monitoring, there is no or poor evidence on how, what and when to monitor. The aim of this study was to improve understanding, methods, evidence base and practice of clinical monitoring in primary care, focusing on two areas: chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure. Objectives: The research questions were as follows: does the choice of test affect better care while being affordable to the NHS? Can the number of tests used to manage individuals with early-stage kidney disease, and hence the costs, be reduced? Is it possible to monitor heart failure using a simple blood test? Can this be done using a rapid test in a general practitioner consultation? Would changes in the management of these conditions be acceptable to patients and carers? Design: Various study designs were employed, including cohort, feasibility study, Clinical Practice Research Datalink analysis, seven systematic reviews, two qualitative studies, one cost-effectiveness analysis and one cost recommendation. Setting: This study was set in UK primary care. Data sources: Data were collected from study participants and sourced from UK general practice and hospital electronic health records, and worldwide literature. Participants: The participants were NHS patients (Clinical Practice Research Datalink: 4.5 million patients), chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure patients managed in primary care (including 750 participants in the cohort study) and primary care health professionals. Interventions: The interventions were monitoring with blood and urine tests (for chronic kidney disease) and monitoring with blood tests and weight measurement (for chronic heart failure). Main outcome measures: The main outcomes were the frequency, accuracy, utility, acceptability, costs and cost-effectiveness of monitoring. Results: Chronic kidney disease: serum creatinine testing has increased steadily since 1997, with most results being normal (83% in 2013). Increases in tests of creatinine and proteinuria correspond to their introduction as indicators in the Quality and Outcomes Framework. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation had 2.7% greater accuracy (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 3.8%) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate. Estimated annual transition rates to the next chronic kidney disease stage are ≈ 2% for people with normal urine albumin, 3–5% for people with microalbuminuria (3–30 mg/mmol) and 3–12% for people with macroalbuminuria (> 30 mg/mmol). Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate-creatinine leads to misclassification of chronic kidney disease stage in 12–15% of tests in primary care. Glycaemic-control and lipid-modifying drugs are associated with a 6% (95% confidence interval 2% to 10%) and 4% (95% confidence interval 0% to 8%) improvement in renal function, respectively. Neither estimated glomerular filtration rate-creatinine nor estimated glomerular filtration rate-Cystatin C have utility in predicting rate of kidney function change. Patients viewed phrases such as ‘kidney damage’ or ‘kidney failure’ as frightening, and the term ‘chronic’ was misinterpreted as serious. Diagnosis of asymptomatic conditions (chronic kidney disease) was difficult to understand, and primary care professionals often did not use ‘chronic kidney disease’ when managing patients at early stages. General practitioners relied on Clinical Commissioning Group or Quality and Outcomes Framework alerts rather than National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance for information. Cost-effectiveness modelling did not demonstrate a tangible benefit of monitoring kidney function to guide preventative treatments, except for individuals with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 60–90 ml/minute/1.73 m2, aged < 70 years and without cardiovascular disease, where monitoring every 3–4 years to guide cardiovascular prevention may be cost-effective. Chronic heart failure: natriuretic peptide-guided treatment could reduce all-cause mortality by 13% and heart failure admission by 20%. Implementing natriuretic peptide-guided treatment is likely to require predefined protocols, stringent natriuretic peptide targets, relative targets and being located in a specialist heart failure setting. Remote monitoring can reduce all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalisation, and could improve quality of life. Diagnostic accuracy of point-of-care N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (sensitivity, 0.99; specificity, 0.60) was better than point-of-care B-type natriuretic peptide (sensitivity, 0.95; specificity, 0.57). Within-person variation estimates for B-type natriuretic peptide and weight were as follows: coefficient of variation, 46% and coefficient of variation, 1.2%, respectively. Point-of-care N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide within-person variability over 12 months was 881 pg/ml (95% confidence interval 380 to 1382 pg/ml), whereas between-person variability was 1972 pg/ml (95% confidence interval 1525 to 2791 pg/ml). For individuals, monitoring provided reassurance; future changes, such as increased testing, would be acceptable. Point-of-care testing in general practice surgeries was perceived positively, reducing waiting time and anxiety. Community heart failure nurses had greater knowledge of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance than general practitioners and practice nurses. Health-care professionals believed that the cost of natriuretic peptide tests in routine monitoring would outweigh potential benefits. The review of cost-effectiveness studies suggests that natriuretic peptide-guided treatment is cost-effective in specialist settings, but with no evidence for its value in primary care settings. Limitations: No randomised controlled trial evidence was generated. The pathways to the benefit of monitoring chronic kidney disease were unclear. Conclusions: It is difficult to ascribe quantifiable benefits to monitoring chronic kidney disease, because monitoring is unlikely to change treatment, especially in chronic kidney disease stages G3 and G4. New approaches to monitoring chronic heart failure, such as point-of-care natriuretic peptide tests in general practice, show promise if high within-test variability can be overcome. Future work: The following future work is recommended: improve general practitioner–patient communication of early-stage renal function decline, and identify strategies to reduce the variability of natriuretic peptide. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017501, CRD42019134922 and CRD42016046902. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BackgroundReducing meat consumption could bring health and environmental benefits, but there is little research to date on effective interventions to achieve this. A non-randomised controlled intervention study was used to evaluate whether prominent positioning of meat-free products in the meat aisle was associated with a change in weekly mean sales of meat and meat-free products.Methods and findingsWeekly sales data were obtained from 108 stores: 20 intervention stores that moved a selection of 26 meat-free products into a newly created meat-free bay within the meat aisle and 88 matched control stores. The primary outcome analysis used a hierarchical negative binomial model to compare changes in weekly sales (units) of meat products sold in intervention versus control stores during the main intervention period (Phase I: February 2019 to April 2019). Interrupted time series analysis was also used to evaluate the effects of the Phase I intervention. Moreover, 8 of the 20 stores enhanced the intervention from August 2019 onwards (Phase II intervention) by adding a second bay of meat-free products into the meat aisle, which was evaluated following the same analytical methods. During the Phase I intervention, sales of meat products (units/store/week) decreased in intervention (approximately -6%) and control stores (-5%) without significant differences (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.01 [95% CI 0.95-1.07]. Sales of meat-free products increased significantly more in the intervention (+31%) compared to the control stores (+6%; IRR 1.43 [95% CI 1.30-1.57]), mostly due to increased sales of meat-free burgers, mince, and sausages. Consistent results were observed in interrupted time series analyses where the effect of the Phase II intervention was significant in intervention versus control stores.ConclusionsProminent positioning of meat-free products into the meat aisle in a supermarket was not effective in reducing sales of meat products, but successfully increased sales of meat-free alternatives in the longer term. A preregistered protocol (https://osf.io/qmz3a/) was completed and fully available before data analysis.

Background: Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) can help general practitioners (GPs) address challenges in cardiovascular disease. A survey published in 2014 evaluated GPs’ awareness and use of CPRs in the UK. However, many new CPRs have been published since and it is unknown which cardiovascular CPRs are currently recognised and used. Aim: To identify cardiovascular CPRs recognised and used by GPs, and to assess how GPs’ familiarity and use have changed over time. Design & setting: An online survey of GPs in the UK was undertaken. Method: Using comparable methods to the 2014 survey, GPs were recruited from a network of doctors in the UK. They were asked how familiar they were with cardiovascular CPRs, how frequently they used them, and why they used them. The results were compared with the 2014 survey. Results: Most of 401 GPs were familiar with QRISK scores, ABCD scores, CHADS scores, HAS-BLED score, Wells scores for deep vein thrombosis, and Wells scores for pulmonary embolism. The proportions of GPs using these CPRs were 96.3%, 65.1%, 97.3%, 93.0%, 92.5%, and 82.0%, respectively. GPs’ use increased by 31.2% for QRISK scores, by 13.5% for ABCD scores, by 54.6% for CHADS scores, by 33.2% for Wells scores for deep vein thrombosis, and by 43.6% for Wells scores for pulmonary embolism; and decreased by 45.9% for the Joint British Societies (JBS) risk calculator, by 38.7% for Framingham risk scores, and by 8.7% for New Zealand tables. GPs most commonly used cardiovascular CPRs to guide therapy and referral. Conclusion: The study found GPs’ familiarity and use of cardiovascular CPRs changed substantially. Integrating CPRs into guidelines and practice software might increase familiarity and use.

Abstract Background Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease with pathological hallmarks including the formation of extracellular aggregates of amyloid-beta (Aβ) known as plaques and intracellular tau tangles. Coincident with the formation of Aβ plaques is recruitment and activation of glial cells to the plaque forming a plaque niche. In addition to histological data showing the formation of the niche, AD genetic studies have added to the growing appreciation of how dysfunctional glia pathways drive neuropathology, with emphasis on microglia pathways. Genomic approaches enable comparisons of human disease profiles between different mouse models informing on their utility to evaluate secondary changes to triggers such as Aβ deposition. Methods In this study, we utilized two animal models of AD to examine and characterize the AD-associated pathology: the Tg2576 Swedish APP (KM670/671NL) and TgCRND8 Swedish plus Indiana APP (KM670/671NL + V717F) lines. We used laser capture microscopy (LCM) to isolate samples surrounding Thio-S positive plaques from distal non-plaque tissue. These samples were then analyzed using RNA sequencing. Results We determined age-associated transcriptomic differences between two similar yet distinct APP transgenic mouse models, known to differ in proportional amyloidogenic species and plaque deposition rates. In Tg2576, human AD gene signatures were not observed despite profiling mice out to 15 months of age. TgCRND8 mice however showed progressive and robust induction of lysomal, neuroimmune, and ITIM/ITAM-associated gene signatures overlapping with prior human AD brain transcriptomic studies. Notably, RNAseq analyses highlighted the vast majority of transcriptional changes observed in aging TgCRND8 cortical brain homogenates were in fact specifically enriched within the plaque niche samples. Data uncovered plaque-associated enrichment of microglia-related genes such as ITIM/ITAM-associated genes and pathway markers of phagocytosis. Conclusion This work may help guide improved translational value of APP mouse models of AD, particularly for strategies aimed at targeting neuroimmune and neurodegenerative pathways, by demonstrating that TgCRND8 more closely recapitulates specific human AD-associated transcriptional responses.

Abstract Background Recurrent mood episodes and subsyndromal mood instability cause substantial disability in patients with bipolar disorder. Early identification of mood episodes enabling timely mood stabilization is an important clinical goal. This study investigates the ability of control chart methodology to predict manic and/or depressive episodes by applying Shewhart’s control rules to weekly self-reported scores from mania and depression questionnaires. Methods Shewhart’s control rules were applied to weekly self-reported scores from the Altman Self-Rating Mania Scale (ASRM) and the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology—Self-Report (QIDS) collected from 2001 to 2012 as part of the OXTEXT programme. Manic and depressive episodes were defined as an ASRM score ≥ 10 or a QIDS score ≥ 15, respectively. An episode-free run-in period of eight consecutive weeks without an episode of either type was used to calibrate control charts. Shewhart’s rules were then applied to follow-up data. Their sensitivity and positive predictive value for predicting manic or depressive episodes within the next 4 weeks were calculated focusing on the first episode. Secondary analyses varying control chart type, length of episode-free run-in period, time frames to evaluate diagnostic accuracy, thresholds defining either manic or depressive episodes, and missing data methods were performed. Results Data from 146 participants (37% men) were included. The mean age was 43.4 (SD = 13.3) years. The median follow-up was 10 (IQR 5–40) weeks for mania and 10 (IQR 5–23) weeks for depression. A total of 53 (36%) participants had a manic episode and 67 (46%) had a depressive episode. For manic episodes, the sensitivity and positive predictive value of Shewhart’s control rules were 30% (95% CI 19–45%) and 7% (95% CI 5–9%), and for depressive episodes, 33% (95% CI 22–46%) and 9% (95% CI 6–12%), respectively. Results from secondary analyses were similar to these. Conclusions Tele-monitoring with control rules has the potential to predict about one-third of manic or depressive episodes before they occur, at the cost of a high false positive rate. Given the severe consequences of manic and depressive episodes, this trade-off may be desirable.

Abstract Background Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) should be externally validated by independent researchers. Although there are many cardiovascular CPRs, most have not been externally validated. It is not known why some CPRs are externally validated by independent researchers and others are not. Methods We analyzed cardiovascular risk CPRs included in a systematic review. Independent external validations were identified by forward citation searches of derivation studies. Time between the publication of a cardiovascular CPR and the first independent external validation was calculated. We assessed Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probability to have an independent external validation. Using univariable Cox regression, we explored whether characteristics of derivation (design, location, sample size, number of predictors, presentation format, validation in derivation), reporting (participants, predictors, outcomes, performance measure, information for risk calculation), and publication (journal impact factor) are associated with time to the first independent external validation. Results Of 125 cardiovascular risk CPRs, 29 had an independent external validation. The median follow-up was 118 months (95% CI, 99–130). The 25th percentile of event time was 122 months (95% CI, 91–299). Cardiovascular risk CPRs from the USA were 4.15 times (95% CI, 1.89–9.13) more likely to have an independent external validation. Increasing the sample size of derivation by ten times was associated with a 2.32-fold (95% CI, 1.37–3.91) increase in the probability of having an independent external validation. CPRs presented with an internal validation tend to get an independent external validation sooner (HR = 1.73, 95% CI, 0.77–3.93). CPRs reporting all the information necessary for calculating individual risk were 2.65 (95% CI, 1.01–6.96) times more likely to have an independent external validation. Publishing a cardiovascular risk CPR in a journal that has one unit higher impact factor was associated with a 6% (95% CI, 3–9) higher likelihood of an independent external validation. Conclusions The probability for cardiovascular risk CPRs to get an independent external validation was low even many years after their derivations. Authors of new cardiovascular risk CPRs should consider using adequate sample size, conducting an internal validation, and reporting all the information needed for risk calculation as these features were associated with an independent external validation.

Abstract Background Raised blood pressure (BP) affects approximately 10% of pregnancies worldwide, and a high proportion of affected women develop pre-eclampsia. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of self-monitoring of BP in pregnancy in women at higher risk of pre-eclampsia. Methods This prospective cohort study of self-monitoring BP in pregnancy was carried out in two hospital trusts in Birmingham and Oxford and thirteen primary care practices in Oxfordshire. Eligible women were those defined by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines as at higher risk of pre-eclampsia. A total of 201 participants were recruited between 12 and 16 weeks of pregnancy and were asked to take two BP readings twice daily three times a week through their pregnancy. Primary outcomes were recruitment, retention and persistence of self-monitoring. Study recruitment and retention were analysed with descriptive statistics. Survival analysis was used to evaluate the persistence of self-monitoring and the performance of self-monitoring in the early detection of gestational hypertension, compared to clinic BP monitoring. Secondary outcomes were the mean clinic and self-monitored BP readings and the performance of self-monitoring in the detection of gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia compared to clinic BP. Results Of 201 women recruited, 161 (80%) remained in the study at 36 weeks or to the end of their pregnancy, 162 (81%) provided any home readings suitable for analysis, 148 (74%) continued to self-monitor at 20 weeks and 107 (66%) at 36 weeks. Self-monitored readings were similar in value to contemporaneous matched clinic readings for both systolic and diastolic BP. Of the 23 who developed gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia and self-monitored, 9 (39%) had a raised home BP prior to a raised clinic BP. Conclusions Self-monitoring of BP in pregnancy is feasible and has potential to be useful in the early detection of gestational hypertensive disorders but maintaining self-monitoring throughout pregnancy requires support and probably enhanced training.

ObjectivesTo characterise serum creatinine and urinary protein testing in UK general practices from 2005 to 2013 and to examine how the frequency of testing varies across demographic factors, with the presence of chronic conditions and with the prescribing of drugs for which kidney function monitoring is recommended.DesignRetrospective open cohort study.SettingRoutinely collected data from 630 UK general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.Participants4 573 275 patients aged over 18 years registered at up-to-standard practices between 1 April 2005 and 31 March 2013. At study entry, no patients were kidney transplant donors or recipients, pregnant or on dialysis.Primary outcome measuresThe rate of serum creatinine and urinary protein testing per year and the percentage of patients with isolated and repeated testing per year.ResultsThe rate of serum creatinine testing increased linearly across all age groups. The rate of proteinuria testing increased sharply in the 2009–2010 financial year but only for patients aged 60 years or over. For patients with established chronic kidney disease (CKD), creatinine testing increased rapidly in 2006–2007 and 2007–2008, and proteinuria testing in 2009–2010, reflecting the introduction of Quality and Outcomes Framework indicators. In adjusted analyses, CKD Read codes were associated with up to a twofold increase in the rate of serum creatinine testing, while other chronic conditions and potentially nephrotoxic drugs were associated with up to a sixfold increase. Regional variation in serum creatinine testing reflected country boundaries.ConclusionsOver a nine-year period, there have been increases in the numbers of patients having kidney function tests annually and in the frequency of testing. Changes in the recommended management of CKD in primary care were the primary determinant, and increases persist even after controlling for demographic and patient-level factors. Future studies should address whether increased testing has led to better outcomes.

BackgroundSelf-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) appears to reduce BP in hypertension but important questions remain regarding effective implementation and which groups may benefit most. This individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was performed to better understand the effectiveness of BP self-monitoring to lower BP and control hypertension.Methods and findingsMedline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomised trials comparing self-monitoring to no self-monitoring in hypertensive patients (June 2016). Two reviewers independently assessed articles for eligibility and the authors of eligible trials were approached requesting IPD. Of 2,846 articles in the initial search, 36 were eligible. IPD were provided from 25 trials, including 1 unpublished study. Data for the primary outcomes-change in mean clinic or ambulatory BP and proportion controlled below target at 12 months-were available from 15/19 possible studies (7,138/8,292 [86%] of randomised participants). Overall, self-monitoring was associated with reduced clinic systolic blood pressure (sBP) compared to usual care at 12 months (-3.2 mmHg, [95% CI -4.9, -1.6 mmHg]). However, this effect was strongly influenced by the intensity of co-intervention ranging from no effect with self-monitoring alone (-1.0 mmHg [-3.3, 1.2]), to a 6.1 mmHg (-9.0, -3.2) reduction when monitoring was combined with intensive support. Self-monitoring was most effective in those with fewer antihypertensive medications and higher baseline sBP up to 170 mmHg. No differences in efficacy were seen by sex or by most comorbidities. Ambulatory BP data at 12 months were available from 4 trials (1,478 patients), which assessed self-monitoring with little or no co-intervention. There was no association between self-monitoring and either lower clinic or ambulatory sBP in this group (clinic -0.2 mmHg [-2.2, 1.8]; ambulatory 1.1 mmHg [-0.3, 2.5]). Results for diastolic blood pressure (dBP) were similar. The main limitation of this work was that significant heterogeneity remained. This was at least in part due to different inclusion criteria, self-monitoring regimes, and target BPs in included studies.ConclusionsSelf-monitoring alone is not associated with lower BP or better control, but in conjunction with co-interventions (including systematic medication titration by doctors, pharmacists, or patients; education; or lifestyle counselling) leads to clinically significant BP reduction which persists for at least 12 months. The implementation of self-monitoring in hypertension should be accompanied by such co-interventions.

Researchers should examine existing evidence to determine the need for a new study. It is unknown whether developers evaluate existing evidence to justify new cardiovascular clinical prediction rules (CPRs).We aimed to assess whether authors of cardiovascular CPRs cited existing CPRs, why some authors did not cite existing CPRs, and why they thought existing CPRs were insufficient.Derivation studies of cardiovascular CPRs from the International Register of Clinical Prediction Rules for Primary Care were evaluated. We reviewed the introduction sections to determine whether existing CPRs were cited. Using thematic content analysis, the stated reasons for determining existing cardiovascular CPRs insufficient were explored. Study authors were surveyed via e-mail and post. We asked whether they were aware of any existing cardiovascular CPRs at the time of derivation, how they searched for existing CPRs, and whether they thought it was important to cite existing CPRs.Of 85 derivation studies included, 48 (56.5%) cited existing CPRs, 33 (38.8%) did not cite any CPR, and four (4.7%) declared there was none to cite. Content analysis identified five categories of existing CPRs insufficiency related to: (1) derivation (5 studies; 11.4% of 44), (2) construct (31 studies; 70.5%), (3) performance (10 studies; 22.7%), (4) transferability (13 studies; 29.5%), and (5) evidence (8 studies; 18.2%). Authors of 54 derivation studies (71.1% of 76 authors contacted) responded to the survey. Twenty-five authors (46.3%) reported they were aware of existing CPR at the time of derivation. Twenty-nine authors (53.7%) declared they conducted a systematic search to identify existing CPRs. Most authors (90.7%) indicated citing existing CPRs was important.Cardiovascular CPRs are often developed without citing existing CPRs although most authors agree it is important. Common justifications for new CPRs concerned construct, including choice of predictor variables or relevance of outcomes. Developers should clearly justify why new CPRs are needed with reference to existing CPRs to avoid unnecessary duplication.

Background: Various lipid measurements in monitoring/screening programmes can be used, alone or in cardiovascular risk scores, to guide treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Because some changes in lipids are due to variability rather than true change, the value of lipid-monitoring strategies needs evaluation. Objective: To determine clinical value and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring intervals and different lipid measures for primary and secondary prevention of CVD. Data sources: We searched databases and clinical trials registers from 2007 (including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Clinical Trials Register, the Current Controlled Trials register, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) to update and extend previous systematic reviews. Patient-level data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and St Luke’s Hospital, Japan, were used in statistical modelling. Utilities and health-care costs were drawn from the literature. Methods: In two meta-analyses, we used prospective studies to examine associations of lipids with CVD and mortality, and randomised controlled trials to estimate lipid-lowering effects of atorvastatin doses. Patient-level data were used to estimate progression and variability of lipid measurements over time, and hence to model lipid-monitoring strategies. Results are expressed as rates of true-/false-positive and true-/false-negative tests for high lipid or high CVD risk. We estimated incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year. Results: A total of 115 publications reported strength of association between different lipid measures and CVD events in 138 data sets. The summary adjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation of total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.35) for CVD in a primary prevention population but heterogeneity was high (I2 = 98%); similar results were observed for non-HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and other ratio measures. Associations were smaller for other single lipid measures. Across 10 trials, low-dose atorvastatin (10 and 20 mg) effects ranged from a TC reduction of 0.92 mmol/l to 2.07 mmol/l, and low-density lipoprotein reduction of between 0.88 mmol/l and 1.86 mmol/l. Effects of 40 mg and 80 mg were reported by one trial each. For primary prevention, over a 3-year period, we estimate annual monitoring would unnecessarily treat 9 per 1000 more men (28 vs. 19 per 1000) and 5 per 1000 more women (17 vs. 12 per 1000) than monitoring every 3 years. However, annual monitoring would also undertreat 9 per 1000 fewer men (7 vs. 16 per 1000) and 4 per 1000 fewer women (7 vs. 11 per 1000) than monitoring at 3-year intervals. For secondary prevention, over a 3-year period, annual monitoring would increase unnecessary treatment changes by 66 per 1000 men and 31 per 1000 women, and decrease undertreatment by 29 per 1000 men and 28 per 1000 men, compared with monitoring every 3 years. In cost-effectiveness, strategies with increased screening/monitoring dominate. Exploratory analyses found that any unknown harms of statins would need utility decrements as large as 0.08 (men) to 0.11 (women) per statin user to reverse this finding in primary prevention. Limitation: Heterogeneity in meta-analyses. Conclusions: While acknowledging known and potential unknown harms of statins, we find that more frequent monitoring strategies are cost-effective compared with others. Regular lipid monitoring in those with and without CVD is likely to be beneficial to patients and to the health service. Future research should include trials of the benefits and harms of atorvastatin 40 and 80 mg, large-scale surveillance of statin safety, and investigation of the effect of monitoring on medication adherence. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003727. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

This paper summarizes the rationale for, possible mechanisms of, and problems related to risk assessment of the association between shift work and cancer. The mechanisms by which circadian disruption may favor the induction and/or promotion of malignant tumors are complex and multifactorial. The multilevel endocrine changes caused by circadian disruption with melatonin suppression through light at night (LAN) lead to the oncogenic targeting of the endocrine-responsive breast in women and possibly the prostate in men. Repeated phase shifting with internal desynchronization may lead to defects in the regulation of the circadian cell cycle, thus favoring uncontrolled growth. Sleep deprivation leads to the suppression of immune surveillance that may permit the establishment and/or growth of malignant clones. The epidemiological studies published so far, although dealing with large cohorts and controlling for several personal confounders, have defined the exposure to shift and/or night work rather loosely and consequently do not allow for the proper assessment of the risk connected with circadian disruption.

Genotyping of hepatitis C virus (HCV) plays an important role in the treatment of HCV. As new genotype-specific treatment options become available, it has become increasingly important to have accurate HCV genotype and subtype information to ensure that the most appropriate treatment regimen is selected. Most current genotyping methods are unable to detect mixed genotypes from two or more HCV infections. Next generation sequencing (NGS) allows for rapid and low cost mass sequencing of viral genomes and provides an opportunity to probe the viral population from a single host. In this paper, the possibility of using short NGS reads for direct HCV genotyping without genome assembly was evaluated. We surveyed the publicly-available genetic content of three HCV drug target regions (NS3, NS5A, NS5B) in terms of whether these genes contained genotype-specific regions that could predict genotype. Six genotypes and 38 subtypes were included in this study. An automated phylogenetic analysis based HCV genotyping method was implemented and used to assess different HCV target gene regions. Candidate regions of 250-bp each were found for all three genes that have enough genetic information to predict HCV genotypes/subtypes. Validation using public datasets shows 100% genotyping accuracy. To test whether these 250-bp regions were sufficient to identify mixed genotypes, we developed a random primer-based method to sequence HCV plasma samples containing mixtures of two HCV genotypes in different ratios. We were able to determine the genotypes without ambiguity and to quantify the ratio of the abundances of the mixed genotypes in the samples. These data provide a proof-of-concept that this random primed, NGS-based short-read genotyping approach does not need prior information about the viral population and is capable of detecting mixed viral infection.

Background: Annual screening for adults with type 2 diabetes to detect the early onset of kidney disease is widely recommended, but the recommendations are based on a limited methodological approach. In addition, there are continuing uncertainties about underlying rates of progression of the condition and the benefits of treatments with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the clinical value and cost-effectiveness of different screening intervals to diagnose early diabetic kidney disease. Data sources: We used the following databases for the literature review (searched January 2005 to August 2010): MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Individual patient data were obtained from the Oxford Regional Prospective Diabetes Study and the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study. Methods: Data from systematically identified randomised trials reporting the impact on renal outcomes of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin 2 receptor blockers for type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients with normoalbuminuria and microalbuminuria were pooled to derive estimates of effect. Individual patient data for type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients were used to obtain parameters describing progression and variability of measurement over time for the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Based on accepted diagnostic thresholds, we modelled whether these tests accurately identified patients who were developing early diabetic kidney disease and required intensification of treatment. Cost-effectiveness analyses were carried out using simulation outcome models to estimate the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for different screening intervals. Results: In total, 49 trials (n = 34,082 patients) were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review. For type 1 diabetes, pooled estimates of urinary albumin excretion (UAE) for treated patients with microalbuminuria were on average 67% [95% confidence interval (CI) 54% to 77%] lower at the end of the trial than for untreated patients. There was no significant treatment effect for patients with normoalbuminuria (p interaction = 0.006). For treated patients with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria or microalbuminuria, UAE was lower by, on average, 21% (95% CI 97% to 32%) or 27% (95% CI 15% to 38%), respectively. The proportion (95% CI) of men and women with type 1 diabetes screened annually for microalbuminuria over 6 years and inaccurately identified as having microalbuminuria would be 48% (43% to 53%) and 55% (48% to 61%), respectively. The corresponding proportions for type 2 diabetes are 36% (32% to 42%) and 48% (41% to 55%). Decreasing the screening interval to 3-yearly would reduce this for men with type 1 diabetes to 38% (33% to 44%), with an increase in those not identified over 6 years from 1.5% (95% CI 1% to 2%) to 4% (95% CI 3% to 5%). For type 1 diabetes, incremental cost per QALY [standard deviation (SD)] of a 5-yearly compared with a 4-yearly screening interval was £3612 (£6586), increasing to £9601 (£34,112) for annual compared with 2-yearly screening. The probability that the intervention is cost saving is around 25%, and it has around an 80% chance of being below a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30,000. For type 2 diabetes, incremental cost per QALY (SD) of a yearly compared with a 2-yearly screening interval was £606 (£1782). The intervention is almost certainly below a cost-effectiveness threshold of £5000. Conclusions: These results support current UK guidance, which recommends annual screening with ACR to identify early kidney disease in patients with diabetes, despite a high false-positive rate leading to, at worst, unnecessary or, at best, early therapeutic intervention. For type 1 diabetes, screening costs for annual compared with 2-yearly screening are well within the bounds of accepted cost-effectiveness. Annual screening is even more cost-effective in type 2 diabetes than in type 1 diabetes. Identification of alternative markers for developing diabetic nephropathy may improve targeting of treatment for those at high risk. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background. Thyroid status may influence tumorigenesis of gynecologic cancers, yet epidemiologic studies of this relationship are limited and inconsistent. Methods. We evaluated the association of self-reported history of physician-diagnosed hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism with medical-record confirmed endometrial (EC; all invasive adenocarcinomas) and ovarian cancer (OC; epithelial ovarian or peritoneal cancers) in Nurses' Health Study (NHS) from 1976 to 2010 and NHSII from 1989 to 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals based on pooled cohort data. Results. We confirmed 1314 incident cases of EC and 1150 cases of OC. Neither a history of hypothyroidism nor hyperthyroidism was significantly associated with risk of EC or OC. However, having a history of hypothyroidism for 8+ years (median) was nonsignificantly inversely associated with EC (RR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.63–1.04; P-trend with history duration = 0.11) and OC (RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.66–1.15; P-trend = 0.13). Having a history of hyperthyroidism for 6+ years (median) was non-significantly positively associated with EC (RR = 1.69; 95% CI = 0.86–3.30; P-trend = 0.12) but not OC (RR = 1.12; 95% CI = 0.46–2.72; P-trend = 0.95). Conclusions. A history of hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism was not significantly associated with risk of EC or OC.

Tumour necrosis factor (TNF) is an important cytokine involved in the pathology of a number of inflammatory conditions, and thus blockade with anti-TNF therapies is becoming the cornerstone in managing such diseases. With increasing use, evidence is collected for the association of sarcoid-like granulomatous disease developing after the initiation of anti-TNF-α therapy, with disease reversal after discontinuation.

Summary: Background & aims: To test the validity and reliability of an inexpensive caliper against the gold standard caliper for the measure of triceps skinfold thickness (TSF) in children with cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: 50 children with CP were recruited in an academic medical center clinic. Two providers measured TSF using both the Holtain and Slim Guide. The intraclass correlation coefficient was obtained. Duplicate measures were used to calculate the technical errors of measurement (TE) and the coefficient of variation (CV) between the same provider with different calipers and different providers with the same caliper. Results: The correlation between the TSF measured using the Holtain versus the Slim Guide was 0.982 by provider 1 and 0.992 by provider 2. Intraobserver TE was 1.20 mm and 0.84 mm and CV was 9.7% and 7.1% for provider 1 and 2, respectively. Combining measurements of both observers, the TE and CV between calipers were 1.03 and 8.5%, respectively. Conclusion: The Slim Guide provides measurements that are reliable and valid. The error between calipers is similar to inter-rater error in published studies using the gold standard, and differences are unlikely to impact clinical management. With an affordable caliper, skinfold measurements can become more widely utilized, enhancing clinical care and research.