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Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied (r2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple (Acer rubrum), and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), red pine (P. resinosa), northern red oak (Quercus rubra), and white oak (Q. alba) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species. Published version

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses. U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center's Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program This project was funded by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center's Environmental Quality and Installation Research Program. Public domain – authored by a U.S. government employee

In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endan- gered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct sub- species associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diag- nostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996�2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18 662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31 795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

The Carolina northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus is an endan- gered subspecies that is restricted to high elevation forests in the southern Appalachian Moun- tains. Owing to rugged terrain and nocturnal habits, the subspecies' natural history, home range characteristics and habitat preferences are poorly known. We radio-tracked 3 female and 2 male Carolina northern flying squirrels during late winter through spring 2012 in the Pisgah National Forest, North Carolina, USA. Tracked squirrels used 13 yellow birch Betula alleghaniensis and 9 red spruce Picea rubens as diurnal dens. Ten of the yellow birch dens were in cavities, whereas the remainders were dreys. Conversely, 8 of the red spruce dens were dreys and one was in a cavity. Mean (±SE) female 95 and 50% adaptive kernel home ranges were 6.50 ± 2.19 and 0.93 ± 0.33 ha, respectively, whereas the corresponding values for males were 12.6 ± 0.9 and 1.45 ± 0.1 ha, respectively. Squirrels used red spruce stands with canopies >20 m more than expected based on availability at the landscape and home range scales. Results should be interpreted cau- tiously because of small sample sizes and seasonal observations; however, they provide evidence that although northern hardwoods such as yellow birch are an important den habitat component, mature red spruce-dominated habitats with complex structure provide foraging habitats and are also den habitat. Our findings support efforts to improve the structural condition of extant red spruce forests and/or increase red spruce acreage to potentially benefit Carolina northern flying squirrels.

We present a comparison of woody browse availability and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) use among clearcut interiors, skidder trail edges, and mature forest and an evaluation of the relative importance of aboitic factors in predicting browsing pressure within regenerating clearcuts in the central Appalachians of West Virginia. We sampled 810 1-m2 plots in or adjacent to nine regenerating clearcuts (8–19 ha) during the summer of 2001. Availability and use of woody browse did not differ between clearcut interior and skidder trail plots for any species observed. Plots in the adjacent mature forest had less woody browse availability and higher utilization. Overall use of available woody browse in clearcuts was >15%. Combining all woody species, elevation (wI = 0.618) and distance to mature forest (wI = 0.379) were more important than landform index, plot surface shape, aspect, and slope in predicting deer browsing pressure in regenerating clearcuts. We believe that without management activities aimed at reducing deer browsing, in many parts of this region the ability of forest managers to regenerate stands will be jeopardized and the forested ecosystem will be compromised.

We surveyed cove hardwood stands aged 15, 25, 50, and ≥85 years following clearcutting in the southern Appalachian Mountains of northern Georgia to assess the effects of stand age and stand habitat characteristics on salamander communities using drift-fence array and pitfall methodologies from May 1994 to April 1995. Over a 60,060 pitfall trapnight effort, we collected 3937 salamanders represented by Desmognathus aeneus, Desmognathus monticola, Desmognathus ocoee, Desmognathus quadramaculatus, Eurycea bislineata, Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, Pseudotriton ruber, Plethodon glutinosus, Plethodon serratus, and Notophthalmus viridescens. Analysis of covariance with pitfall array to stream distance as the covariate showed that salamander species richness and diversity measures and numbers of Desmognathus aeneus and Desmognathus ocoee were highest in stands ≥85 years. Eurycea bislineata and Plethodon glutinosus were more abundant in stands ≤50 years old than in stands ≥85 years. Within cove hardwood stands, species richness and diversity measures and relative abundances of Desmognathus spp. and Gyrinophilus porphyriticus were negatively correlated with distance to stream. Species richness and diversity were positively correlated to amounts of emergent rock. Species richness, diversity and relative abundances of Desmognathus spp. were correlated with basal area within stands and extent of connected mesic, cove hardwood habitat and amount of cove habitat within 1 km radius among stands. Eurycea bislineata was negatively correlated with landform index, a measure of surrounding landform sheltering, and Plethodon glutinosus was positively correlated with elevation in cove hardwood stands. Our research indicates stand age is an important factor in explaining the abundance and community composition of salamanders in southern Appalachian cove hardwood communities. Because southern Appalachian woodland salamander communities are slow to recover and are substantially changed following disturbances such as clearcutting, populations in small, isolated cove hardwood stands might be more vulnerable to extirpation or may require longer recovery times than those in larger coves. Managers may need to assess habitat features such as cove extent and habitat connectivity to minimize impacts on these taxa by forest management activities in southern Appalachian cove hardwood communities.

The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS;Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus) for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI) are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score) for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

We examined occurrence patterns and habitat data for the Virginia northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus fuscus) in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia, USA with the intent to develop a habitat model. Topographic conditions (elevation, landform index, surface curvature, slope gradient and aspect) and proximity to coniferous cover were evaluated for three study areas where flying squirrel presence has been documented via nest box surveys. In our model, Virginia northern flying squirrel presence was associated with proximity to conifer cover (P

We surveyed cove-hardwood stands aged 15, 25, 50 and ⩾85 years in the southern Appalachian Mountains of northern Georgia to assess the effects of stand-age, stand characteristics, and landform on understory herbaceous communities from April to September 1995. Of 69 species and/or genera of spring–late summer herbaceous flora recorded, only four species' abundances differed among stand-ages surveyed. Disporum lanuginosum was more abundant in older stands than in younger stands. Tiarella cordifolia was absent in 25-year-old stands, but common in 15, 50, and ⩾85-year-old stands, and Lysimachia quadrifolia and Potentilla canadensis were more common in 25-year-old stands than in older stands and 15-year-old stands. Species richness, diversity, and evenness values did not differ by stand-age. Stand characteristics and landform variables that were related to herb species richness, diversity, and evenness values included stand basal area, mean percent canopy cover, extent of connected cove habitat, and area of cove habitat within 1 km radius of surveyed stands. Our results indicate that landscape measures such as patch size or extent of similar habitat, and connectivity to other suitable patches or habitats may be important considerations for assessing understory herbaceous community recovery following disturbances such as forest management activities.

Using museum collection records and variables computed by digital terrain modeling in a geographic information system, we examined the relationship of elevation, aspect, and “cove” patch size to the presence or absence of 7 common woodland salamanders in mature cove hardwood and northern hardwood forests in the southern Appalachians of Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Overall, elevation, aspect and patch size were poor discriminators among salamander species presence or absence at collection sites. Increased elevation was an important variable explaining the presence of Ocoee salamanders (Desmognathus ocoee) and Jordan's salamanders (Plethodon jordani). In contrast, decreased elevation was an important variable explaining the presence of slimy salamanders (Plethodon glutinosus). Our study contrasts with recent research indicating that suitable habitat patch size is an important determinant of woodland salamander species richness and abundance at recently disturbed sites. In these matu...