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PDF file - 206K, Table S1 Numbers of test positive cases and controls using CA19-9 37 U/mL and CA125 30 U/mL cut-offs Figure S1 Scatter plots showing distribution of CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1 and REG3A levels against time to diagnosis for discovery set. Zero represents the point of clinical diagnosis. Figure S2 Examples of CA19-9 and CA125 levels in individual cases with serial/longitudinal samples. Figure S3 Box and whisker plots showing serum levels of CA19-9 and CA125 for case control validation samples grouped into different time to diagnosis groups. Whisker limits represent the 5th and 95th percentiles, the box limits represent interquartile range, the horizontal line the median and the cross the mean. Case and control groups were compared using the Mann-Whitney test; significant P values (

Purpose: Biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic cancer are urgently needed. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether increased levels of serum CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A are present before clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer and to assess the performance of combined markers for early detection and prognosis.Experimental Design: This nested case–control study within the UKCTOCS included 118 single and 143 serial serum samples from 154 postmenopausal women who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 304 matched noncancer controls. Samples were split randomly into independent training and test sets. CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A were measured using ELISA and/or CLIA. Performance of markers to detect cancers at different times before diagnosis and for prognosis was evaluated.Results: At 95% specificity, CA19-9 (>37 U/mL) had a sensitivity of 68% up to 1 year, and 53% up to 2 years before diagnosis. Combining CA19-9 and CA125 improved sensitivity as CA125 was elevated (>30 U/mL) in approximately 20% of CA19-9–negative cases. CEACAM1 and REG3A were late markers adding little in combined models. Average lead times of 20 to 23 months were estimated for test-positive cases. Prediagnostic levels of CA19-9 and CA125 were associated with poor overall survival (HR, 2.69 and 3.15, respectively).Conclusions: CA19-9 and CA125 have encouraging sensitivity for detecting preclinical pancreatic cancer, and both markers can be used as prognostic tools. This work challenges the prevailing view that CA19-9 is upregulated late in the course of pancreatic cancer development. Clin Cancer Res; 21(3); 622–31. ©2014 AACR.

Background Ovarian cancer has a poor survival rate due to late diagnosis and improved methods are needed for its early detection. Our primary objective was to identify and incorporate additional biomarkers into longitudinal models to improve on the performance of CA125 as a first-line screening test for ovarian cancer. Methods This case–control study nested within UKCTOCS used 490 serial serum samples from 49 women later diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 31 control women who were cancer-free. Proteomics-based biomarker discovery was carried out using pooled samples and selected candidates, including those from the literature, assayed in all serial samples. Multimarker longitudinal models were derived and tested against CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. Results The best performing models, incorporating CA125, HE4, CHI3L1, PEBP4 and/or AGR2, provided 85.7% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity up to 1 year before diagnosis, significantly improving on CA125 alone. For Type II cases (mostly high-grade serous), models achieved 95.5% sensitivity at 95.4% specificity. Predictive values were elevated earlier than CA125, showing the potential of models to improve lead time. Conclusions We have identified candidate biomarkers and tested longitudinal multimarker models that significantly improve on CA125 for early detection of ovarian cancer. These models now warrant independent validation.

Introduction: While many aspects of female ovarian function respond to environmental stressors, estradiol (E2) appears less sensitive to stressors than progesterone, except under extreme ecological conditions. However, earlier studies relied on saliva samples, considered less sensitive than blood. Here, we investigated E2 variation among 177 Bangladeshi and UK white women, aged 35-59, using single serum samples. Bangladeshi women either grew up in Sylhet, Bangladesh (exposed to poor sanitation, limited health care, and higher pathogen loads but not poor energy availability), or in the UK. Methods: We collected samples on days 4-6 of the menstrual cycle in menstruating women and on any day for post-menopausal women. Participants included: i) Bangladeshi sedentees (n=36), ii) Bangladeshis who migrated to the UK as adults (n=52), iii) Bangladeshis who migrated as children (n=40), and iv) UK white women matched for neighborhood residence to the migrants (n=49). Serum was obtained by venipuncture and analyzed using electrochemiluminescence. We collected anthropometrics and supplementary sociodemographic and reproductive data through questionnaires. We analyzed the data using multivariate regression. Results: E2 levels did not differ between migrant groups after controlling for age, BMI, physical activity, psychosocial stress, parity, and time since last birth (parous women). Paralleling results from salivary E2, serum E2 did not differ among women who experienced varying developmental conditions. Conclusion: Our results reinforce the hypothesis that E2 levels are stable under challenging environmental conditions. Interpopulation variation may only arise under chronic conditions of extreme nutritional scarcity, energy expenditure, and/or high disease burdens.

Background and objectives Low levels of vitamin D among dark-skinned migrants to northern latitudes and increased risks for associated pathologies illustrate an evolutionary mismatch between an environment of high ultraviolet (UV) radiation to which such migrants are adapted and the low UV environment to which they migrate. Recently, low levels of vitamin D have also been associated with higher risks for contracting COVID-19. South Asians in the UK have higher risk for low vitamin D levels. In this study, we assessed vitamin D status of British-Bangladeshi migrants compared with white British residents and Bangladeshis still living in Bangladesh (‘sedentees’). Methodology The cross-sectional study compared serum vitamin D levels among 149 women aged 35–59, comprising British-Bangladeshi migrants (n = 50), white British neighbors (n = 54) and Bangladeshi sedentees (n = 45). Analyses comprised multivariate models to assess serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), and associations with anthropometric, lifestyle, health and migration factors. Results Vitamin D levels in Bangladeshi migrants were very low: mean 25(OH)D = 32.2 nmol/L ± 13.0, with 29% of migrants classified as deficient ( Conclusions and implications We conclude that lower exposure to sunlight in the UK reduces vitamin D levels in Bangladeshi migrants. Recommending supplements could prevent potentially adverse health outcomes associated with vitamin D deficiency. Lay Summary Vitamin D deficiency is one example of mismatch between an evolved trait and novel environments. Here we compare vitamin D status of dark-skinned British-Bangladeshi migrants in the UK to Bangladeshis in Bangladesh and white British individuals. Migrants had lower levels of vitamin D and are at risk for associated pathologies.

Background Transvaginal ultrasound and serum CA125 are routinely used for differential diagnosis of pelvic adnexal mass. Use of human epididymis 4 was approved in the United States in 2011. However, there is scarcity of studies evaluating the additional value of human epididymis 4. Objective The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance characteristics of transvaginal ultrasound, CA125, and human epididymis 4 for differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer in postmenopausal women with adnexal masses. Study Design This was a cohort study nested within the screen arms of the multicenter randomized controlled trial, United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, based in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 48,230 women randomized to transvaginal ultrasound screening and 50,078 to multimodal screening (serum CA125 interpreted by Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm with second line transvaginal ultrasound) underwent the first (prevalence) screen. Women with adnexal lesions and/or persistently elevated risk were clinically assessed and underwent surgery or follow-up for a median of 10.9 years. Banked samples taken within 6 months of transvaginal ultrasound from all clinically assessed women were assayed for human epididymis 4 and CA125. Area under the curve and sensitivity for diagnosing ovarian cancer of multiple penalized logistic regression models incorporating logCA125, log human epididymis 4, age, and simple ultrasound features of the adnexal mass were compared. Results Of 1590 (158 multimodal, 1432 ultrasound) women with adnexal masses, 78 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer (48 invasive epithelial ovarian, 14 type I, 34 type II; 24 borderline epithelial; 6 nonepithelial) within 1 year of scan. The area under the curve (0.893 vs 0.896; P = .453) and sensitivity (74.4% vs 75.6% ;P = .564) at fixed specificity of 90% of the model incorporating age, ultrasound, and CA125 were similar to that also including human epididymis 4. Both models had high sensitivity for invasive epithelial ovarian (89.6%) and type II (>91%) cancers. Conclusion Our population cohort study suggests that human epididymis 4 adds little value to concurrent use of CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound in the differential diagnosis of adnexal masses in postmenopausal women.

Purpose: Biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic cancer are urgently needed. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether increased levels of serum CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A are present before clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer and to assess the performance of combined markers for early detection and prognosis. Experimental Design: This nested case–control study within the UKCTOCS included 118 single and 143 serial serum samples from 154 postmenopausal women who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 304 matched noncancer controls. Samples were split randomly into independent training and test sets. CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A were measured using ELISA and/or CLIA. Performance of markers to detect cancers at different times before diagnosis and for prognosis was evaluated. Results: At 95% specificity, CA19-9 (>37 U/mL) had a sensitivity of 68% up to 1 year, and 53% up to 2 years before diagnosis. Combining CA19-9 and CA125 improved sensitivity as CA125 was elevated (>30 U/mL) in approximately 20% of CA19-9–negative cases. CEACAM1 and REG3A were late markers adding little in combined models. Average lead times of 20 to 23 months were estimated for test-positive cases. Prediagnostic levels of CA19-9 and CA125 were associated with poor overall survival (HR, 2.69 and 3.15, respectively). Conclusions: CA19-9 and CA125 have encouraging sensitivity for detecting preclinical pancreatic cancer, and both markers can be used as prognostic tools. This work challenges the prevailing view that CA19-9 is upregulated late in the course of pancreatic cancer development. Clin Cancer Res; 21(3); 622–31. ©2014 AACR.

Purpose: To establish the performance of screening with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), interpreted using the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), and transvaginal sonography (TVS) for women at high risk of ovarian cancer (OC) or fallopian tube cancer (FTC). Patients and Methods: Women whose estimated lifetime risk of OC/FTC was ≥ 10% were recruited at 42 centers in the United Kingdom and underwent ROCA screening every 4 months. TVS occurred annually if ROCA results were normal or within 2 months of an abnormal ROCA result. Risk-reducing salpingooophorectomy (RRSO) was encouraged throughout the study. Participants were observed via cancer registries, questionnaires, and notification by centers. Performance was calculated after censoring 365 days after prior screen, with modeling of occult cancers detected at RRSO. Results: Between June 14, 2007, and May 15, 2012, 4,348 women underwent 13,728 women-years of screening. The median follow-up time was 4.8 years. Nineteen patientswere diagnosed with invasive OC/FTC within 1 year of prior screening (13 diagnoses were screen-detected and six were occult at RRSO). No symptomatic interval cancers occurred. Ten (52.6%) of the total 19 diagnoseswere stage I to II OC/FTC (CI, 28.9%to 75.6%). Of the 13 screen-detected cancers, five (38.5%) were stage I to II (CI, 13.9% to 68.4%). Of the six occult cancers, five (83.3%) were stage I to II (CI, 35.9% to 99.6%). Modeled sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for OC/FTC detection within 1 year were 94.7% (CI, 74.0% to 99.9%), 10.8% (6.5% to 16.5%), and 100% (CI, 100% to 100%), respectively. Seven (36.8%) of the 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen were stage IIIb to IV (CI, 16.3%to 61.6%) compared with 17 (94.4%) of 18 cancers diagnosed >1 year after screening ended (CI, 72.7% to 99.9%; P < .001). Eighteen (94.8%) of 19 cancers diagnosed < 1 year after prior screen had zero residual disease (with lower surgical complexity, P = .16) (CI, 74.0%to 99.9%) compared with 13 (72.2%) of 18 cancers subsequently diagnosed (CI, 46.5% to 90.3%; P = .09). Conclusion: ROCA-based screening is an option for women at high risk of OC/FTC who defer or decline RRSO, given its high sensitivity and significant stage shift. However, it remains unknown whether this strategy would improve survival in screened high-risk women.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. METHODS: In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. FINDINGS: Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202,638 women: 50,640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50,639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101,359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202,546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50,624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50,623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101,299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345,570 MMS and 327,775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0-12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0-14 of 15% (95% CI -3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (-7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (-20 to 31) in years 0-7 and 23% (1-46) in years 7-14, and in the USS group, of 2% (-27 to 26) in years 0-7 and 21% (-2 to 42) in years 7-14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (-2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (-27 to 43) in years 0-7 and 28% (-3 to 49) in years 7-14 in favour of MMS. INTERPRETATION: Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7-14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Postmenopausal women with elevated serum sex steroids have an increased risk of breast cancer. Most of this risk is believed to be exerted through binding of the sex steroids to their receptors. For the first time, we investigate the association of estrogen receptor (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) serum bioactivity (SB) in addition to hormone levels in samples from women with breast cancer collected before diagnosis. Two hundred postmenopausal women participating in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening who developed ER-positive breast cancer 0.6–5 years after sample donation were identified and matched to 400 controls. ER and AR bioassays were used to measure ERα, ERβ, and AR SB. Androgen and estrogen levels were measured with immunoassays. Subjects were classified according to quintiles of the respective marker among controls and the associations between SB and hormones with breast cancer risk were determined by logistic regression analysis. ERα and ERβ SB were significantly higher before diagnosis compared with controls, while estrogens showed no difference. Women had a twofold increased breast cancer risk if ERα SB (odds ratio (OR), 2.114; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.050–4.425; P=0.040) was in the top quintile >2 years before diagnosis or estrone (OR, 2.205; 95% CI, 1.104–4.586; P=0.029) was in the top quintile P=0.0003) and testosterone (OR, 2.145; 95% CI, 1.256–3.712; P=0.006) were significantly higher compared with controls and showed a strong association with an almost threefold increased breast cancer risk independent of time to diagnosis. This study provides further evidence on the association of androgens and estrogens with breast cancer. In addition, it reports that high ER but not AR SB is associated with increased breast risk >2 years before diagnosis.

Introduction Associations of endogenous sex hormone levels and all as well as estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers are well described. However, studies investigating their association with ER-negative tumours are limited and none use accurate assays such as mass spectrometry. Methods Within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), a nested case-control study was undertaken of postmenopausal-women who developed ER-negative (n = 92) or ER-positive (n = 205) breast cancer after sample donation and 297 (1:1) age-matched controls. Androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) were measured using mass spectrometry and estradiol by extraction radioimmunoassay (RIA). Bioavailable estradiol and testosterone were calculated using the total hormone level and the sex hormone-binding globulin concentration. Subjects were classified according to the quartile range among controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds-ratio (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI) of the associations between two factors and breast cancer risk. A separate analysis was done by stratifying the women based on whether they provided their samples less than or more than 2 years before diagnosis. Results Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly higher prior to diagnosis of ER-negative breast cancer compared with controls while androgens and SHBG did not show any difference. Estradiol, free estradiol, free testosterone and SHBG were significantly higher before ER-positive breast cancer diagnosis compared with controls. Women had a twofold increased ER-negative breast cancer risk if estradiol and free estradiol were in the top quartile but not androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) or SHBG. These associations remained significant only when samples closer (median 1.1 y before) to diagnosis were analyzed rather than farther from diagnosis (median 2.9 y before). Women had a 2.34 (95% CI: 1.21–4.61, p = 0.001), 2.21 (95% CI: 1.14–4.38, p = 0.001), 2 (95% CI: 1.05–3.89, p = 0.005) fold increased ER-positive breast cancer risk if estradiol, free estradiol and free testosterone respectively were in the top quartile. These associations remained significant regardless of whether the samples were collected less than or more than 2 years prior to diagnosis. Conclusion In postmenopausal women increased estrogens but not androgens are associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Previously reported associations of estradiol and free testosterone with ER-positive breast cancer are confirmed. The use of mass spectrometry and sensitive RIA add validity to these findings.

Objective To assess whether the quality of early childhood environments among different groups of Bangladeshi women, including migrants to the United Kingdom (UK), contributes to variation in ovarian reserve and the rate of reproductive aging in later life. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Not applicable. Patient(s) A total of 179 healthy women volunteers aged 35–59 years were divided into four groups: [1] 36 Bangladeshis living in Sylhet, Bangladesh; [2] 53 Bangladeshis who migrated to the UK as adults; [3] 40 Bangladeshis who migrated to the UK as children aged 0–16 years; and [4] a reference group of 50 women of European origin living in London. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) Levels of serum antimullerian hormone, inhibin B, FSH, and E 2 , and anthropometrics derived from biomarkers; reproductive, demographic, and health variables from structured questionnaires. Result(s) Bangladeshi migrants who moved to the UK as children and European women had a highly significantly larger, age-related ovarian reserve compared with migrant Bangladeshis who had moved to the UK as adults or Bangladeshi women still living in Bangladesh. There were no other significant covariates in the model aside from age and menopausal status. Conclusion(s) The study points to the importance of childhood development in considering variation in ovarian reserve across different ethnic groups. Clinical studies and research in assisted reproductive technology have emphasized the role of genes or race in determining inter-population variation in ovarian reserve. Early life developmental factors should be given due consideration when evaluating inter-group differences in response to assisted reproductive technology.