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Human activity has fundamentally altered wildfire on Earth, creating serious consequences for human health, global biodiversity, and climate change. However, it remains difficult to predict fire interactions with land use, management, and climate change, representing a serious knowledge gap and vulnerability. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 98 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated that direct human activity was already influencing wildfires locally since at least ~12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime until around 5000 years BP. Responses showed a ten-fold increase in the rate of wildfire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in fire frequency, severity, and/or size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regime showed quite different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, concluding that management options are seriously constrained under higher emission scenarios.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. Introduction Methods and materials Results and discussion Timing and type of future fire regime change Consequences of fire regime change Our capacity to prevent, control, or adapt to future fire regimes Charting a course in a world of uncertainty Expert assessment application in fire management

SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein mediates receptor binding and subsequent membrane fusion. It exists in a range of conformations, including a closed state unable to bind the ACE2 receptor, and an open state that does so but displays more exposed antigenic surface. Spikes of variants of concern (VOCs) acquired amino acid changes linked to increased virulence and immune evasion. Here, using HDX-MS, we identified changes in spike dynamics that we associate with the transition from closed to open conformation, to ACE2 binding, and to specific mutations in VOCs. We show that the RBD-associated subdomain plays a role in spike opening, whereas the NTD acts as a hotspot of conformational divergence of VOC spikes driving immune evasion. Alpha, beta and delta spikes assume predominantly open conformations and ACE2 binding increases the dynamics of their core helices, priming spikes for fusion. Conversely, substitutions in omicron spike lead to predominantly closed conformations, presumably enabling it to escape antibodies. At the same time, its core helices show characteristics of being pre-primed for fusion even in the absence of ACE2. These data inform on SARS-CoV-2 evolution and omicron emergence.

The thermal histories of upper crustal magma reservoirs place important constraints on the formation, evolution, and remobilization of crustal magmas, yet quantifying thermal histories remains challenging. We report new in-situ plagioclase trace-element data, Sr in plagioclase diffusion timescales, and plagioclase 238U-230Th-226Ra disequilibria data from Mount Saint Helens (MSH) 1980 cryptodome and 2004-2005 dacite domes to evaluate the thermal storage conditions and compositional diversity of recent MSH magmas. This approach allows us to more directly link the thermal (and therefore physical) conditions within the MSH magma reservoir to timescales of storage, thereby constraining the fraction of time 1980-2005 MSH magmas have spent in a mobile state. Plagioclase trace-element data and U-series characteristics reveal a compositionally heterogenous magmatic system beneath MSH and also require multi-stage plagioclase growth histories. The data also show that 2004-05 dacites contain a different plagioclase population relative to the 1980 cryptodome dacite, comprised of either a compositionally (and possibly temporally) distinct plagioclase component or composed of the same plagioclase components but in significantly different proportions. Discordant plagioclase 238U-230Th and 230Th-226Ra apparent ages require a mixture of young (likely eruption related) and old (>20-40 ka) plagioclase crystals in both 1980 and 2004-05 dacites. The low (230Th)/(232Th) in all measured 1980 and 2004-05 plagioclase requires a significant fraction (>10-30%) of the plagioclase to be old (>10s kyr). Maximum modeled Sr diffusion timescales at 750oC range from decades to centuries for both eruptions, with a maximum of ~600 years found in 1980 cryptodome plagioclase. However, partially equilibrated Sr in the innermost exposed parts of some crystals found in both 1980 and 2004-05 plagioclase indicate that a fraction (>20%) of plagioclase may have experienced a total of >10 kyrs at temperatures ≥750oC. Coupling Sr diffusion timescales with U-series measurements indicates that significant fraction (at least ~40%) of modeled MSH plagioclase spent 25-50% of their storage time at hotter conditions. Our data combined with data from other arc magmatic systems (e.g., Mt. Hood) imply that the process of remobilizing magma in arc systems towards successive eruptions requires thermally rejuvenating largely crystalline material, as opposed to sequential tapping of a persistent liquid-dominated magma body, even if successive eruptions are spaced closely in time (decades). In addition, rejuvenation events responsible for successive eruptions may sample spatially localized, but potentially overlapping, portions of the broader magma reservoir.

This research has been supported by the Leverhulme Trust (grant no. RC-2018-023), the European Research Council (grant no. 694481), the German Research Foundation (grant no. FE-1096/6-1), the Swiss Government Excellence Postdoctoral Scholarships (grant no. FIRECO 2016.0310), the National Science Centre of Poland (grant no. 2015/17/B/ST10/01656), the SCIEX Scholarship Fund (grant no. PSPB-013/2010), and the Estonian Research Council (grant no. MOBJD313)., Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issues limit the use of existing compilations for research into past fire regimes. Here, we present an expanded database of charcoal records, accompanied by new age models based on recalibration of radiocarbon ages using IntCal20 and Bayesian age-modelling software. We document the structure and contents of the database, the construction of the age models, and the quality control measures applied. We also record the expansion of geographical coverage relative to previous charcoal compilations and the expansion of metadata that can be used to inform analyses. This first version of the Reading Palaeofire Database contains 1676 records (entities) from 1480 sites worldwide. The database (RPDv1b – Harrison et al., 2021) is available at https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000345., Leverhulme Trust RC-2018-023, European Research Council (ERC) European Commission 694481, German Research Foundation (DFG) FE-1096/6-1, Swiss Government Excellence Postdoctoral Scholarships FIRECO 2016.0310, SCIEX Scholarship Fund PSPB-013/2010, Estonian Research Council MOBJD313

Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issues limit the use of existing compilations for research into past fire regimes. Here, we present an expanded database of charcoal records, accompanied by new age models based on recalibration of radiocarbon ages using INTCAL2020 and Bayesian age-modelling software. We document the structure and contents of the database, the construction of the age models, and the quality control measures applied. We also record the expansion of geographical coverage relative to previous charcoal compilations and the expansion of metadata that can be used to inform analyses. This first version of the Reading Palaeofire Database contains 1681 records (entities) from 1477 sites worldwide. The database (DOI: 10.17864/1947.319) is available from https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/319.

Studies of eyewitness memory commonly employ variations on a standard misinformation paradigm. Participants are (a) exposed to an event (e.g., a simulated crime), (b) misled about certain details of the event and (c) questioned about their memory of the original event. Misinformation may be provided in the second step via a range of methods. Here, we directly compared the effectiveness of six misinformation delivery methods-leading questions, elaborate leading questions, doctored photographs, simple narratives, scrambled narratives, and missing word narratives. We presented 1182 participants with a video of a simulated robbery and randomly assigned them to receive misinformation about two out of four critical details via one of these methods. In line with the levels of processing account of memory, we report that methods that encourage deeper processing of misinformation result in more memory distortions. Contrary to previous reports, doctored photographs were not a successful method of implanting misinformation. The six delivery methods resulted in minimal differences in confidence and metamemory estimates, but participants were more likely to notice the presence of misinformation in the simple narrative condition. We conclude with suggestions for the selection of an appropriate method of misinformation delivery in future studies. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

In the last four years health services in public sector prisons in England have undergone a period of rapid reform and modernisation. Before this, prisoners' health care was characterised by over‐medicalisation, isolation from the NHS, and lack of education and training for health care staff. As part of this process of reform, responsibility for funding and commissioning these services has moved from the Prison Service to the National Health Service (NHS). The results so far seem encouraging. Services are better funded, standards have improved and there is significant progress in developing a strong partnership between the key partners ‐ the Prison Service and the NHS ‐ at national and local levels. These reforms address human rights and the aim of the Prison Health Unit, that prisoners should be able to expect their health needs to be met adequately by services that are broadly equivalent to services on offer in the community. Some learning points for other countries are considered. An equivalent strategy for the modernisation of public sector prisons in Wales is being developed by the Welsh Assembly Government.

We present the first area-average time series reconstructions of warmest month, coldest month and mean annual surface air temperatures across Europe during the last 12,000 years. These series are based on quantitative pollen climate reconstructions from over 500 pollen sites assimilated using an innovative four-dimensional gridding procedure. This approach combines three-dimensional spatial gridding with a fourth dimension represented by time, allowing data from irregular time series to be ‘focussed’ onto a regular time step. We provide six regional reconstructed temperature time series as well as summary time series for the whole of Europe. The results suggest major spatial and seasonal differences in Holocene temperature trends within a remarkably balanced regional and annual energy budget. The traditional mid-Holocene thermal maximum is observed only over Northern Europe and principally during the summer. This warming was balanced by a mid-Holocene cooling over Southern Europe, whilst Central Europe occupied an intermediary position. Changes in annual mean temperatures for Europe as a whole suggest an almost linear increase in thermal budget up to 7800 BP, followed by stable conditions for the remainder of the Holocene. This early Holocene warming and later equilibrium has been mainly modulated by increasing winter temperatures in the west, which have continued to rise at a progressively decreasing rate up to the present day.

For most of the last glacial period, which ended about 10 ka BP 2 , the temperate forest species were restricted to small areas (termed refugia) with a milder climate, situated mostly along the Mediterranean borderlands and around the Black Sea. Species only started to expand from these glacial period refugia with the large-scale shifts in the global climate in the late-glacial (15–10 ka BP) and the beginning of the Holocene period (10 ka BP to present). Fossil pollen data from sites across Europe have been used to reconstruct the location of refugia of the deciduous oak species, and the spread from these refugia into their current ranges. Three areas of southern Europe have been identified as refugia for deciduous Quercus: southern Iberian peninsula, southern Italian peninsula and the southern Balkan peninsula. The spread of Quercus took place in two steps. First, in the late-glacial interstadial (13–11 ka BP) Quercus spread to the central European mountains from these refugia. Second, with the stabilisation of a climate favourable to deciduous trees species in the Holocene, oak spread into northern Europe, rapidly into the north–west, and more slowly into the centre and east, due to physical barriers. The earlier distribution changes are strongly correlated with the shifts in climate, whereas the later changes are most strongly controlled by competition between species, landscape topography and other edaphic factors. By approximately 6 ka BP, the deciduous oak had reached its maximum extension in Europe. Two types of refugia have been identified from the observed range expansion: primary, full glacial refugia; and secondary, temporary refugia, which supported populations of the oak during the short, climatically unfavourable late-glacial stadial.

Succession after fire has mainly been studied by chronosequence, which does not allow study of pre- and post-fire communities at the same site. By using palynology and anthracology, we recovered vegetation communities and fire histories through time on islands of Duparquet Lake, Canada. We show that succession after fire is dependent on interval between two fires (evaluated with depth of humus between subsequent fires). Sites with high fire occurrence show a cyclic succession (same species reappearing after fire), while sites with low fire occurrence show a directional succession. Different fire intervals lead to different pre- and post-fire pollen assemblages. During longer fire intervals, pollen assemblages change from Pinus banksiana Lamb. domination to Pinus strobus L. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP domination. When fire intervals are short, Pinus banksiana dominates both pre- and post-fire assemblages.

Ensuring that social and health care professionals have a clear understanding and acceptance of what constitutes adult abuse and how they should respond when faced by suspected or actual abuse is a key responsibility for all professional associations. Here an account is given how one organisation ‐ UKCC, the regulatory body for nursing, midwifery and health visiting, has approached this task.

What you need to know Compared with the general population, adults in contact with the criminal justice system have higher rates of mental and physical health problems. Such people include those under arrest, in prison, on license, or serving a community sentence. Most live in the community or serve short custodial sentences,1 and will feature on the patient list of most general practices. Care for these people should be equivalent to that of people without a history of contact with the criminal justice system. There is little to suggest that, for most people, treatments that are effective in a non-criminal justice setting are not effective in the criminal justice setting. Some of the most prevalent problems include substance misuse, personality disorder, depression, anxiety, respiratory disease, diabetes, and other chronic health conditions. Being held in prison is associated with increased suicide rates and high levels of mental health problems. People in contact with the criminal justice system should have the same access to NHS treatment as the general population at all stages. Lack of access to healthcare can exacerbate existing problems and affect reintegration to society …

Conserved domains in proteins are one of the major sources of functional information for experimental design and genome-level annotation. Though search tools for conserved domain databases such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are sensitive in detecting conserved domains in proteins when they share sufficient sequence similarity, they tend to miss more divergent family members, as they lack a reliable statistical framework for the detection of low sequence similarity. We have developed a greatly improved HMMerThread algorithm that can detect remotely conserved domains in highly divergent sequences. HMMerThread combines relaxed conserved domain searches with fold recognition to eliminate false positive, sequence-based identifications. With an accuracy of 90%, our software is able to automatically predict highly divergent members of conserved domain families with an associated 3-dimensional structure. We give additional confidence to our predictions by validation across species. We have run HMMerThread searches on eight proteomes including human and present a rich resource of remotely conserved domains, which adds significantly to the functional annotation of entire proteomes. We find ∼4500 cross-species validated, remotely conserved domain predictions in the human proteome alone. As an example, we find a DNA-binding domain in the C-terminal part of the A-kinase anchor protein 10 (AKAP10), a PKA adaptor that has been implicated in cardiac arrhythmias and premature cardiac death, which upon stress likely translocates from mitochondria to the nucleus/nucleolus. Based on our prediction, we propose that with this HLH-domain, AKAP10 is involved in the transcriptional control of stress response. Further remotely conserved domains we discuss are examples from areas such as sporulation, chromosome segregation and signalling during immune response. The HMMerThread algorithm is able to automatically detect the presence of remotely conserved domains in proteins based on weak sequence similarity. Our predictions open up new avenues for biological and medical studies. Genome-wide HMMerThread domains are available at http://vm1-hmmerthread.age.mpg.de.

Some 90% of prisoners in England and Wales have a mental health poblem. This article outlines several initiatives, including health screening on admission and suicide prevention, to improve the care of this population.