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What are the major topics of the Cognitive Science Societyconference? How have they changed over the years? To an-swer these questions, we applied an unsupervised learning al-gorithm known as dynamic topic modeling (Blei & Lafferty,2006) to the 2000–2017 Proceedings of the Cognitive Sci-ence Society. Unlike traditional topic models, a dynamic topicmodel is sensitive to the temporal context of documents andcan characterize the evolution of each topic across years. Us-ing this model, we identify historical trends in the popularity oftopics over time, and shifts in word use within topics indicativeof changing focuses within the field. We also measure the cor-relation across topics, and use the model to highlight the topicstructure of particular papers and labs. We believe dynamictopic models present an important tool towards understandingCognitive Science as it continues to grow and evolve over time

Balancing exploration and exploitation is difficult, and across a wide variety of situations under-exploration ofuncertain alternatives appears prevalent. We propose that one possible cause of under-exploration is present bias, wherebyimmediate rewards (like those gained from exploitation) loom larger than future rewards (like those gained from exploration).This possible cause of under-exploration is not addressed by past studies, in which choices generally yield token rewards thatare converted to money at the end of the experiment, removing the inter-temporal aspect of the decision-making process. Toaddress this issue, we developed an exploratory choice task with immediately-consumed rewards. We then tested whetherwhether imposing a temporal delay before the consumption of rewards increased exploration by decreasing present bias, andreport on our results.

Author(s): Sara Pedron 1,2,3,*, Michael Hanselmann 1, Jacob Burns 1,4,5, Alexander Rich 2,4,5, Annette Peters 6, Margit Heier 6,7, Lars Schwettmann 2,8, Jacob H. Bor 9,10, Till Bärnighausen 11,12,13, Michael [...], Background Hypertension represents one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality globally. Early detection and treatment of this condition is vital to prevent complications. However, hypertension often goes undetected, and even if detected, not every patient receives adequate treatment. Identifying simple and effective interventions is therefore crucial to fight this problem and allow more patients to receive the treatment they need. Therefore, we aim at investigating the impact of a population-based blood pressure (BP) screening and the subsequent "low-threshold" information treatment on long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods and findings We examined the impact of a BP screening embedded in a population-based cohort study in Germany and subsequent personalized "light touch" information treatment, including a hypertension diagnosis and a recommendation to seek medical attention. We pooled four waves of the KORA study, carried out between 1984 and 1996 (N = 14,592). Using a sharp multivariate regression discontinuity (RD) design, we estimated the impact of the information treatment on CVD mortality and morbidity over 16.9 years. Additionally, we investigated potential intermediate outcomes, such as hypertension awareness, BP, and behavior after 7 years. No evidence of effect of BP screening was observed on CVD mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.172 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.725, 1.896]) or on any (fatal or nonfatal) long-term CVD event (HR = 1.022 [0.636, 1.641]) for individuals just above (versus below) the threshold for hypertension. Stratification for previous self-reported diagnosis of hypertension at baseline did not reveal any differential effect. The intermediate outcomes, including awareness of hypertension, were also unaffected by the information treatment. However, these results should be interpreted with caution since the analysis might not be sufficiently powered to detect a potential intervention effect. Conclusions The study does not provide evidence of an effect of the assessed BP screening and subsequent information treatment on BP, health behavior, or long-term CVD mortality and morbidity. Future studies should consider larger datasets to detect possible effects and a shorter follow-up for the intermediate outcomes (i.e., BP and behavior) to detect short-, medium-, and long-term effects of the intervention along the causal pathway.

People often make repeated decisions from experience. In suchscenarios, persistent biases of choice can develop, most notablythe “hot stove effect” (Denrell & March, 2001) in whicha prospect that is mistakenly believed to be negative is avoidedand thus belief-correcting information is never obtained. Inthe existing literature, the hot stove effect is generally thoughtof as developing through interaction with a single, stochasticprospect. Here, we show how a similar bias can develop due topeople’s tendency to selectively attend to a subset of featuresduring categorization. We first explore the bias through modelsimulation, then report on an experiment in which we find evidenceof a decisional bias linked to selective attention. Finally,we use these computational models to design novel interventionsto “de-bias” decision-makers, some of which may havepractical application

Time is a central aspect of exploratory choice. People must balance the immediate rewards of exploiting known alternatives against the long-term rewards of exploring uncertain alternatives. However, little research has investigated how this temporal aspect affects the exploratory decisions people make. In other intertemporal choices, people display a bias towards immediate rewards. We hypothesize that in exploratory choice, this present bias will cause them to under-explore. Across three experiments, including a preregistered design, we find no evidence that present bias influences exploratory choice, but also conclude that our stimuli may not effectively induce present bias. We discuss how present bias might better be investigated, and possible reasons that present bias may not affect exploratory choice. Keywords: exploration, decision making, intertemporal choice, present bias, Decision makers acting in uncertain environments frequently face the dilemma between choosing options known to be rewarding (i.e., exploitation) and choosing options that are unknown or uncertain (i.e., exploration). A [...]