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Reductions in hippocampal volume (HV) have been associated with both prolonged exposure to stress and psychotic illness. This study sought to determine whether higher levels of neighborhood poverty would be associated with reduced HV among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and whether social engagement would moderate this association. This cross-sectional study included a sample of participants (N = 174, age-range = 12–33 years, 35.1% female) recruited for the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Generalized linear mixed models tested the association between neighborhood poverty and bilateral HV, as well as the moderating role of social engagement on this association. Higher levels of neighborhood poverty were associated with reduced left (β = −0.180, P = .016) and right HV (β = −0.185, P = .016). Social engagement significantly moderated the relation between neighborhood poverty and bilateral HV. In participants with lower levels of social engagement (n = 77), neighborhood poverty was associated with reduced left (β = −0.266, P = .006) and right HV (β = −0.316, P = .002). Among participants with higher levels of social engagement (n = 97), neighborhood poverty was not significantly associated with left (β = −0.010, P = .932) or right HV (β = 0.087, P = .473). In this study, social engagement moderated the inverse relation between neighborhood poverty and HV. These findings demonstrate the importance of including broader environmental influences and indices of social engagement when conceptualizing adversity and potential interventions for individuals at CHR-P.

IMPORTANCE: Although clinical criteria for identifying youth at risk for psychosis have been validated, they are not sufficiently accurate for predicting outcomes to inform major treatment decisions. The identification of biomarkers may improve outcome prediction among individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). OBJECTIVE: To examine whether mismatch negativity (MMN) event–related potential amplitude, which is deficient in schizophrenia, is reduced in young people with the CHR-P syndrome and associated with outcomes, accounting for effects of antipsychotic medication use. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: MMN data were collected as part of the multisite case-control North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) from 8 university-based outpatient research programs. Baseline MMN data were collected from June 2009 through April 2013. Clinical outcomes were assessed throughout 24 months. Participants were individuals with the CHR-P syndrome and healthy controls with MMN data. Participants with the CHR-P syndrome who developed psychosis (ie, converters) were compared with those who did not develop psychosis (ie, nonconverters) who were followed up for 24 months. Analysis took place between December 2019 and December 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Electroencephalography was recorded during a passive auditory oddball paradigm. MMN elicited by duration-, pitch-, and duration + pitch double-deviant tones was measured. RESULTS: The CHR-P group (n = 580; mean [SD] age, 19.24 [4.39] years) included 247 female individuals (42.6%) and the healthy control group (n = 241; mean age, 20.33 [4.74] years) included 114 female individuals (47.3%). In the CHR-P group, 450 (77.6%) were not taking antipsychotic medication at baseline. Baseline MMN amplitudes, irrespective of deviant type, were deficient in future CHR-P converters to psychosis (n = 77, unmedicated n = 54) compared with nonconverters (n = 238, unmedicated n = 190) in both the full sample (d = 0.27) and the unmedicated subsample (d = 0.33). In the full sample, baseline medication status interacted with group and deviant type indicating that double-deviant MMN, compared with single deviants, was reduced in unmedicated converters compared with nonconverters (d = 0.43). Further, within the unmedicated subsample, deficits in double-deviant MMN were most strongly associated with earlier conversion to psychosis (hazard ratio, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.03-1.90]; P = .03], which persisted over and above positive symptom severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study found that MMN amplitude deficits were sensitive to future psychosis conversion among individuals at risk of CHR-P, particularly those not taking antipsychotic medication at baseline, although associations were modest. While MMN shows limited promise as a biomarker of psychosis onset on its own, it may contribute novel risk information to multivariate prediction algorithms and serve as a translational neurophysiological target for novel treatment development in a subgroup of at-risk individuals.

Background While an established clinical outcome of high importance, social functioning has been emerging as possibly having a broader significance to the evolution of psychosis and long term disability. In the current study we explored the association between social decline, conversion to psychosis, and functional outcome in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. Methods 585 subjects collected in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) were divided into 236 Healthy Controls (HCs), and CHR subjects that developed psychosis (CHR + C, N = 79), or those that did not (Non-Converters, CHR-NC, N = 270). CHR + C subjects were further divided into those that experienced an atypical decline in social functioning prior to baseline (beyond typical impairment levels) when in min-to-late adolescence (CHR + C-SD, N = 39) or those that did not undergoing a decline (CHR + C-NSD, N = 40). Results Patterns of poor functional outcomes varied across the CHR subgroups: CHR-NC (Poor Social 36.3%, Role 42.2%) through CHR + C-NSD (Poor Social 50%, Poor Role 67.5%) to CHR + C-SD (Poor Social 76.9%, Poor Role 89.7%) functioning. The two Converter subgroups had comparable positive symptoms at baseline. At 12 months, the CHR + C-SD group stabilized, but social functioning levels remained significantly lower than the other two subgroups. Conclusions The current study demonstrates that pre-baseline social decline in mid-to-late adolescence predicts psychosis. In addition, we found that this social decline in converters is strongly associated with especially poor functional outcome and overall poorer prognosis. Role functioning, in contrast, has not shown similar predictor potential, and rather appears to be an illness indicator that worsens over time.

Objectives: Bipolar disorder (BD) is a debilitating illness that often starts at an early age. Prevention of first and subsequent mood episodes, which are usually preceded by a period characterized by subthreshold symptoms is important. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics including severity and duration of subsyndromal symptoms across adolescents with three different bipolar-spectrum disorders. Methods: Syndromal and subsyndromal psychopathology were assessed in adolescent inpatients (age = 12-18 years) with a clinical mood disorder diagnosis. Assessments included the validated Bipolar Prodrome Symptom Interview and Scale - Prospective (BPSS-P). We compared phenomenology across patients with a research consensus conference-confirmed DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) diagnoses of BD-I, BD - not otherwise specified (NOS), or mood disorder (MD) NOS. Results: Seventy-six adolescents (age = 15.6 ± 1.4 years, females = 59.2%) were included (BD-I = 24; BD-NOS = 29; MD-NOS = 23) in this study. Median baseline global assessment of functioning scale score was 21 (interquartile range = 17-40; between-group p = 0.31). Comorbidity was frequent, and similar across groups, including disruptive behavior disorders (55.5%, p = 0.27), anxiety disorders (40.8%, p = 0.98), and personality disorder traits (25.0%, p = 0.21). Mania symptoms (most frequent: irritability = 93.4%, p = 0.82) and depressive symptoms (most frequent: depressed mood = 81.6%, p = 0.14) were common in all three BD-spectrum groups. Manic and depressive symptoms were more severe in both BD-I and BD-NOS versus MD-NOS (p < 0.0001). Median duration of subthreshold manic symptoms was shorter in MD-NOS versus BD-NOS (11.7 vs. 20.4 weeks, p = 0.002) and substantial in both groups. The most used psychotropics upon discharge were antipsychotics (65.8%; BD-I = 79.2%; BD-NOS = 62.1%; MD-NOS = 56.5%, p = 0.227), followed by mood stabilizers (43.4%; BD-I = 66.7%; BD-NOS = 31.0%; MD-NOS = 34.8%, p = 0.02) and antidepressants (19.7%; BD-I = 20.8%; BD-NOS = 10.3%; MD-NOS = 30.4%). Conclusions: Youth with BD-I, BD-NOS, and MD-NOS experience considerable symptomatology and are functionally impaired, with few differences observed in psychiatric comorbidity and clinical severity. Moreover, youth with BD-NOS and MD-NOS undergo a period with subthreshold manic symptoms, enabling identification and, possibly, preventive intervention of those at risk for developing BD or other affective episodes requiring hospitalization.

Progressive grey matter loss has been demonstrated among clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals who convert to psychosis, but it is unknown whether these changes occur prior to psychosis onset. Identifying illness-related neurobiological mechanisms that occur prior to conversion is essential for targeted early intervention. Among participants in the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3), this report investigated if steeper cortical thinning was observable prior to psychosis onset among CHR individuals who ultimately converted (CHR-C) and assessed the shortest possible time interval in which rates of cortical thinning differ between CHR-C, CHR non-converters (CHR-NC), and health controls (HC). 338 CHR-NC, 42 CHR-C, and 62 HC participants (age 19.3±4.2, 44.8% female, 52.5% racial/ethnic minority) completed up to 5 MRI scans across 8 months. Accelerated thinning among CHR-C compared to CHR-NC and HC was observed in multiple prefrontal, temporal, and parietal cortical regions. CHR-NC also exhibited accelerated cortical thinning compared to HC in several of these areas. Greater percent decrease in cortical thickness was observed among CHR-C compared to other groups across 2.9±1.8 months, on average, in several cortical areas. ROC analyses discriminating CHR-C from CHR-NC by percent thickness change in a left hemisphere region of interest, scanner, age, age2, and sex had an AUC of 0.74, with model predictive power driven primarily by percent thickness change. Findings indicate that accelerated cortical thinning precedes psychosis onset and differentiates CHR-C from CHR-NC and HC across short time intervals. Mechanisms underlying cortical thinning may provide novel treatment targets prior to psychosis onset.

Background As efforts intensify to intervene early among those at risk for psychosis, examination of the relationship between presenting psychopathology and long-term functional outcome may guide treatment decision-making and offer a means to prevent or reduce chronic disability. Methods Data were collected through the Early Detection and Intervention for the Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP), a multisite national trial testing the efficacy of an early intervention for youth at risk of developing psychosis. Participants were followed prospectively and completed comprehensive evaluations at 6, 12, and 24 months, including the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Global Social and Role Functioning Scales. The present analyses included 327 participants and examined the relationships between baseline symptoms and longitudinal global social and role functioning using a linear mixed modeling approach. Results Higher baseline negative symptoms and deteriorated thought process predicted worse social and role functioning in the follow-up period. The effect of negative symptoms on social functioning, however, was moderated by positive symptoms, and the relationship between positive symptoms and social functioning changed over time. Baseline positive symptoms, distress, and level of symptom severity were not predictors of either social or role functioning. Conclusions Baseline negative symptoms and thought disorder appear to predict functional outcome for up to two years among adolescents and young adults at risk for psychosis. Developing effective interventions to target these symptoms may be critical to promote functional recovery among those experiencing attenuated symptoms or a first episode of psychosis.

BackgroundIdentifying risk factors of individuals in a clinical-high-risk state for psychosis are vital to prevention and early intervention efforts. Among prodromal abnormalities, cognitive functioning has shown intermediate levels of impairment in CHR relative to first-episode psychosis and healthy controls, highlighting a potential role as a risk factor for transition to psychosis and other negative clinical outcomes. The current study used the AX-CPT, a brief 15-min computerized task, to determine whether cognitive control impairments in CHR at baseline could predict clinical status at 12-month follow-up.MethodsBaseline AX-CPT data were obtained from 117 CHR individuals participating in two studies, the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP) and the Understanding Early Psychosis Programs (EP) and used to predict clinical status at 12-month follow-up. At 12 months, 19 individuals converted to a first episode of psychosis (CHR-C), 52 remitted (CHR-R), and 46 had persistent sub-threshold symptoms (CHR-P). Binary logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression were used to test prediction models.ResultsBaseline AX-CPT performance (d-prime context) was less impaired in CHR-R compared to CHR-P and CHR-C patient groups. AX-CPT predictive validity was robust (0.723) for discriminating converters v. non-converters, and even greater (0.771) when predicting CHR three subgroups.ConclusionsThese longitudinal outcome data indicate that cognitive control deficits as measured by AX-CPT d-prime context are a strong predictor of clinical outcome in CHR individuals. The AX-CPT is brief, easily implemented and cost-effective measure that may be valuable for large-scale prediction efforts.

While functional neuroimaging studies typically focus on a particular paradigm to investigate network connectivity, the human brain appears to possess an intrinsic ���trait��� architecture that is independent of any given paradigm. We have previously proposed the use of ���cross-paradigm connectivity (CPC)��� to quantify shared connectivity patterns across multiple paradigms and have demonstrated the utility of such measures in clinical studies. Here, using generalizability theory and connectome fingerprinting, we examined the reliability, stability, and individual identifiability of CPC in a group of highly-sampled healthy traveling subjects who received fMRI scans with a battery of five paradigms across multiple sites and days. Compared with single-paradigm connectivity matrices, the CPC matrices showed higher reliability in connectivity diversity, lower reliability in connectivity strength, higher stability, and higher individual identification accuracy. All of these assessments increased as a function of number of paradigms included in the CPC analysis. In comparisons involving different paradigm combinations and different brain atlases, we observed significantly higher reliability, stability, and identifiability for CPC matrices constructed from task-only data (versus those from both task and rest data), and higher identifiability but lower stability for CPC matrices constructed from the Power atlas (versus those from the AAL atlas). Moreover, we showed that multi-paradigm CPC matrices likely reflect the brain���s ���trait��� structure that cannot be fully achieved from single-paradigm data, even with multiple runs. The present results provide evidence for the feasibility and utility of CPC in the study of functional ���trait��� networks and offer some methodological implications for future CPC studies.

Background Adolescence/early adulthood coincides with accelerated pruning of cortical synapses and the onset of schizophrenia. Cortical gray matter reduction and dysconnectivity in schizophrenia are hypothesized to result from impaired synaptic plasticity mechanisms, including long-term potentiation (LTP), since deficient LTP may result in too many weak synapses that are then subject to over-pruning. Deficient plasticity has already been observed in schizophrenia. Here, we assessed whether such deficits are present in the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS), particularly those who subsequently convert to full psychosis. Methods An interim analysis was performed on a sub-sample from the NAPLS-3 study, including 46 healthy controls (HC) and 246 PRS participants. All participants performed an LTP-like visual cortical plasticity paradigm involving assessment of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) elicited by vertical and horizontal line gratings before and after high frequency ("tetanizing") visual stimulation with one of the gratings to induce "input-specific" neuroplasticity (i.e., VEP changes specific to the tetanized stimulus). Non-parametric, cluster-based permutation testing was used to identify electrodes and timepoints that demonstrated input-specific plasticity effects. Results Input-specific pre-post VEP changes (i.e., increased negative voltage) were found in a single spatio-temporal cluster covering multiple occipital electrodes in a 126-223 ms time window. This plasticity effect was deficient in PRS individuals who subsequently converted to psychosis, relative to PRS non-converters and HC. Conclusions Input-specific LTP-like visual plasticity can be measured from VEPs in adolescents and young adults. Interim analyses suggest that deficient visual cortical plasticity is evident in those PRS individuals at greatest risk for transition to psychosis.

The mismatch negativity (MMN) event-related potential (ERP) component is increasingly viewed as a prediction error signal elicited when a deviant sound violates the prediction that a frequent "standard" sound will repeat. Support for this predictive coding framework emerged with the identification of the repetition positivity (RP), a standard stimulus ERP component that increases with standard repetition and is thought to reflect strengthening of the standard's memory trace and associated predictive code. Using electroencephalographic recordings, we examined the RP elicited by repeating standard tones presented during a traditional "constant standard" MMN paradigm in individuals with the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS; n = 579) and healthy controls (HC; n = 241). Clinical follow-up assessments identified PRS participants who converted to a psychotic disorder (n = 77) and PRS nonconverters who were followed for the entire 24-month clinical follow-up period and either remained symptomatic (n = 144) or remitted from the PRS (n = 94). In HC, RP linearly increased from early- to late-appearing standards within local trains of repeating standards (p < .0001), consistent with auditory predictive code/memory trace strengthening. Relative to HC, PRS participants showed a reduced RP across standards (p = .0056). PRS converters showed a relatively small RP deficit for early appearing standards relative to HC (p = .0.0107) and a more prominent deficit for late-appearing standards (p = .0006) relative to both HC and PRS-remitted groups. Moreover, greater RP deficits predicted shorter time to conversion in a subsample of unmedicated PRS individuals (p = .02). Thus, auditory predictive coding/memory trace deficits precede psychosis onset and predict future psychosis risk in PRS individuals. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Background Clinical outcomes vary among young people with the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS), with approximately 20% of individuals progressing to a psychotic disorder over 2–3 years and 30% achieving clinical remission. The identification of neurophysiological abnormalities associated with schizophrenia that predate and predict psychosis onset may enhance the accuracy of clinical outcome prediction in the PRS and help elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms of psychosis onset. Auditory P300 event-related potential (ERP) component amplitude reductions are well established in schizophrenia and reflect early attention-mediated information processing deficits. Recent studies employing auditory oddball tasks have shown that P300 amplitude deficits in PRS individuals are associated with later clinical outcomes, including both conversion to full-blown psychosis and remission from the at-risk state. The present study examined whether these effects extend to P300 in the visual modality using visual oddball task data collected as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Specifically, we evaluated whether visual P300 amplitudes are reduced in the PRS and predict future clinical outcomes. Methods 540 individuals meeting PRS criteria and 229 healthy individuals completed baseline EEG recording during a visual oddball task. Visual P300 subcomponents were measured in response to two stimulus types: (1) infrequent target stimuli, reflecting top-down allocation of attention (target P3b), and (2) infrequent non-target novel distractor stimuli, reflecting bottom-up orienting of attention (novelty P3a). P300 amplitudes of PRS participants who converted to psychosis (n=70) were compared with those of PRS non-converters who were followed clinically for 24 months and continued to be symptomatic (n=131) or fully remitted from the PRS (n=87). Results Group comparison effects did not differ by stimulus type. Visual P300 amplitudes were not significantly reduced in the PRS group relative to healthy individuals (p=.25). However, baseline target P3b and novelty P3a amplitudes were reduced in PRS individuals who later converted to psychosis relative to all PRS non-converters, including those who remitted (p=.006, d=.44) and those who remained symptomatic (p=.015, d=.37), as well as healthy individuals (p=.001, d=.44). Baseline P300 amplitudes were similar among healthy controls, PRS remitters, and PRS individuals who remained symptomatic (ps>.45). Moreover, visual P300 amplitudes differentiated future psychosis converters after accounting for PRS symptom severity. Finally, both target P3b and novelty P3a amplitudes predicted the time to psychosis onset in PRS participants (p=.03 and p=.02, respectively), such that more deficient P300 amplitudes were associated with shorter time to conversion. Discussion Baseline visual P300 amplitudes were reduced in future PRS converters relative to non-converters, with effect sizes comparable to those reported in previous auditory P300 studies of the PRS. Results implicate visual P300 as a neurophysiological vulnerability marker that predicts clinical outcomes among PRS individuals, including future transition to psychosis. Accordingly, together with prior auditory P300 studies, results suggest that P300 may have the potential to contribute to personalized early intervention in the PRS by distinguishing individuals with the greatest risk for psychotic illness, who require the most aggressive treatment, from those who may need minimal intervention.

Author(s): Roach, Brian J; Hamilton, Holly K; Bachman, Peter; Belger, Aysenil; Carrion, Ricardo E; Duncan, Erica; Johannesen, Jason; Kenney, Joshua G; Light, Gregory; Niznikiewicz, Margaret; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E; Owens, Emily M; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cannon, Tyrone D; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry; Tsuang, Ming; Walker, Elaine F; Woods, Scott W; Mathalon, Daniel H | Abstract: ObjectivesMismatch negativity (MMN), an auditory event-related potential sensitive to deviance detection, is smaller in schizophrenia and psychosis risk. In a multisite study, a regression approach to account for effects of site and age (12-35 years) was evaluated alongside the one-year stability of MMN.MethodsStability of frequency, duration, and frequency + duration (double) deviant MMN was assessed in 167 healthy subjects, tested on two occasions, separated by 52 weeks, at one of eight sites. Linear regression models predicting MMN with age and site were validated and used to derive standardized MMN z-scores. Variance components estimated for MMN amplitude and latency measures were used to calculate Generalizability (G) coefficients within each site to assess MMN stability. Trait-like aspects of MMN were captured by averaging across occasions and correlated with subject traits.ResultsAge and site accounted for less than 7% of MMN variance. G-coefficients calculated at electrode Fz were stable (G = 0.63) across deviants and sites for amplitude measured in a fixed window, but not for latency (G = 0.37). Frequency deviant MMN z-scores averaged across tests negatively correlated with averaged global assessment of functioning.ConclusionMMN amplitude is stable and can be standardized to facilitate longitudinal multisite studies of patients and clinical features.

Understanding the fundamental alterations in brain functioning that lead to psychotic disorders remains a major challenge in clinical neuroscience. In particular, it is unknown whether any state-independent biomarkers can potentially predict the onset of psychosis and distinguish patients from healthy controls, regardless of paradigm. Here, using multi-paradigm fMRI data from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study consortium, we show that individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis display an intrinsic “trait-like” abnormality in brain architecture characterized as increased connectivity in the cerebello–thalamo–cortical circuitry, a pattern that is significantly more pronounced among converters compared with non-converters. This alteration is significantly correlated with disorganization symptoms and predictive of time to conversion to psychosis. Moreover, using an independent clinical sample, we demonstrate that this hyperconnectivity pattern is reliably detected and specifically present in patients with schizophrenia. These findings implicate cerebello–thalamo–cortical hyperconnectivity as a robust state-independent neural signature for psychosis prediction and characterization.

While graph theoretical modeling has dramatically advanced our understanding of complex brain systems, the feasibility of aggregating connectomic data in large imaging consortia remains unclear. Here, using a battery of cognitive, emotional and resting fMRI paradigms, we investigated the generalizability of functional connectomic measures across sites and sessions. Our results revealed overall fair to excellent reliability for a majority of measures during both rest and tasks, in particular for those quantifying connectivity strength, network segregation and network integration. Processing schemes such as node definition and global signal regression (GSR) significantly affected resulting reliability, with higher reliability detected for the Power atlas (vs. AAL atlas) and data without GSR. While network diagnostics for default-mode and sensori-motor systems were consistently reliable independently of paradigm, those for higher-order cognitive systems were reliable predominantly when challenged by task. In addition, based on our present sample and after accounting for observed reliability, satisfactory statistical power can be achieved in multisite research with sample size of approximately 250 when the effect size is moderate or larger. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the generalizability of brain functional graphs in large consortia, and encourage the aggregation of connectomic measures using multisite and multisession data.

Cognitive deficits have an important role in the neurodevelopment of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders. However, there is a continuing debate as to whether cognitive impairments in the psychosis prodrome are stable predictors of eventual psychosis or undergo a decline due to the onset of psychosis. In the present study, to determine how cognition changes as illness emerges, we examined baseline neurocognitive performance in a large sample of helping-seeking youth ranging in clinical state from low-risk for psychosis through individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for illness to early first-episode patients (EFEP). At baseline, the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus battery was administered to 322 individuals (205 CHRs, 28 EFEPs, and 89 help-seeking controls, HSC) that were part of the larger Early Detection, Intervention and Prevention of Psychosis Program study. CHR individuals were further divided into those who did (CHR-T; n=12, 6.8%) and did not (CHR-NT, n=163) convert to psychosis over follow-up (Mean=99.20 weeks, SD=21.54). ANCOVAs revealed that there were significant overall group differences (CHR, EFEP, HSC) in processing speed, verbal learning, and overall neurocognition, relative to healthy controls (CNTL). In addition, the CHR-NTs performed similarly to the HSC group, with mild to moderate cognitive deficits relative to the CTRL group. The CHR-Ts mirrored the EFEP group, with large deficits in processing speed, working memory, attention/vigilance, and verbal learning (>1 SD below CNTLs). Interestingly, only verbal learning impairments predicted transition to psychosis, when adjusting for age, education, symptoms, antipsychotic medication, and neurocognitive performance in the other domains. Our findings suggest that large neurocognitive deficits are present prior to illness onset and represent vulnerability markers for psychosis. The results of this study further reinforce that verbal learning should be specifically targeted for preventive intervention for psychosis.

OBJECTIVE To compare neuropsychological performance in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR), healthy controls (HCs), or subjects with first-episode psychosis (FEP). DATA SOURCES Systematic PubMed/MEDLINE search through January 2014, without language restrictions, using search terms prodrome OR clinical high-risk OR ultra-high risk AND cognition OR individual test names. STUDY SELECTION Studies reporting neuropsychological data in CHR versus a HC or FEP groups or comparing CHR subjects who converted to psychosis (CHR-P) with CHR subjects who did not convert to psychosis (CHR-NP). DATA EXTRACTION Two authors independently extracted and compared neurocognitive test data. RESULTS A meta-analysis was performed on 60 neuropsychological tests from 9 domains in 32 studies with 21 nonoverlapping samples (CHR = 1,684 patients, HC = 986, FEP = 405). Compared to HCs, people with CHR performed significantly worse in 7 of 9 domains (Hedges g effect size [95% confidence limit] = -0.17 [-0.30, -0.04] [attention/vigilance] to -0.42 [-0.64, -0.20] [verbal learning, speed of processing] and -0.43 [-0.68, -0.18] [social cognition]), except reasoning/problem solving and working memory (which separated in longitudinal studies). California Verbal Learning Test (-0.65 [-0.84, -0.46]) and Digit Symbol Test (-0.63 [-0.86, -0.40]) separated groups the most. Compared to FEP subjects, people with CHR performed significantly better in 5 of 6 domains (from 0.29 [0.03, 0.56] [speed of processing] to 0.39 [0.17, 0.62] [attention/vigilance, verbal learning] and -0.40 [0.18, 0.64] [working memory]), except reasoning/problem solving. CHR-P and CHR-NP performed significantly worse than HC (except visual learning, working memory in CHR-NP). Compared to CHR-NP, CHR-P performed significantly worse in 6 of 8 domains (from -0.24 [-0.44, -0.03] [attention/vigilance] to -0.49 [-0.76, -0.22] [verbal learning] and -0.54 [-0.80, -0.27] [visual learning]), without differences in reasoning/problem solving and working memory. Three individual tests (Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, Verbal Fluency Test/Controlled Oral Word Association Test, and California Verbal Learning Test) discriminated the best between CHR-P and CHR-NP (-0.49 [-0.82, -0.16], -0.45 [-0.86, -0.03], and -0.40 [-0.80, -0.00], respectively). CONCLUSIONS CHR has mild to moderate globally distributed neuropsychological performance deficits that lie between FEP and HCs. Neuropsychological performance deficits are greater in CHR-P than in CHR-NP, but they overlap, reducing their current utility for risk stratification.

Clinical staging improved the possibility of intervening during the psychosis prodrome to limit progression of illness. The current study aimed to validate a novel 4-stage severity-based model with a focus on clinical change over time and risk for conversion to psychosis. One hundred seventy-one individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis were followed prospectively (3 ± 1.6 y) as part of the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) program and divided into 4 diagnostic stages according to absence/presence and severity of attenuated positive symptoms. Twenty-two percent of the combined sample recovered (no prodromal symptoms) by study outcome. The negative symptoms only subgroup had the highest symptom stability (70%), but the lowest conversion rate at 5.9%. The subgroup with more severe baseline attenuated positive symptom levels had a higher conversion rate (28%) and a more rapid onset when compared to the moderate attenuated positive symptom subgroup (11%). Finally, the Schizophrenia-Like Psychosis (SLP) subgroup showed low stability (3%), with 49% developing a specific psychotic disorder. The proposed stage model provides a more finely grained classification system than the standard diagnostic approach for prodromal individuals. All 4 stages are in need of early intervention because of low recovery rates. The negative symptom only stage is possibly a separate clinical syndrome, with an increased risk of functional disability. Both subgroups with attenuated positive symptoms are appropriate for studying the mechanisms of psychosis risk, however, individuals with more severe baseline positive symptoms appear better suited to clinical trials. Finally, the SLP category represents an intermediate outcome group appropriate for preventative intervention research but questionable for inclusion in prodromal studies of mechanisms.

Importance In most patients, a prodromal period precedes the onset of schizophrenia. Although clinical criteria for identifying the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS) show promising predictive validity, assessment of neurophysiologic abnormalities in at-risk individuals may improve clinical prediction and clarify the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. Objective To determine whether P300 event-related potential amplitude, which is deficient in schizophrenia, is reduced in the PRS and associated with clinical outcomes. Design, setting, and participants Auditory P300 data were collected as part of the multisite, case-control North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2) at 8 university-based outpatient programs. Participants included 552 individuals meeting PRS criteria and 236 healthy controls with P300 data. Auditory P300 data of participants at risk who converted to psychosis (n = 73) were compared with those of nonconverters who were followed up for 24 months and continued to be symptomatic (n = 135) or remitted from the PRS (n = 90). Data were collected from May 27, 2009, to September 17, 2014, and were analyzed from December 3, 2015, to May 1, 2019. Main outcomes and measures Baseline electroencephalography was recorded during an auditory oddball task. Two P300 subcomponents were measured: P3b, elicited by infrequent target stimuli, and P3a, elicited by infrequent nontarget novel stimuli. Results This study included 788 participants. The PRS group (n = 552) included 236 females (42.8%) (mean [SD] age, 19.21 [4.38] years), and the healthy control group (n = 236) included 111 females (47.0%) (mean [SD] age, 20.44 [4.73] years). Target P3b and novelty P3a amplitudes were reduced in at-risk individuals vs healthy controls (d = 0.37). Target P3b, but not novelty P3a, was significantly reduced in psychosis converters vs nonconverters (d = 0.26), and smaller target P3b amplitude was associated with a shorter time to psychosis onset in at-risk individuals (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04-2.00; P = .03). Participants with the PRS who remitted had baseline target P3b amplitudes that were similar to those of healthy controls and greater than those of converters (d = 0.51) and at-risk individuals who remained symptomatic (d = 0.41). Conclusions and relevance In this study, deficits in P300 amplitude appeared to precede psychosis onset. Target P3b amplitudes, in particular, may be sensitive to clinical outcomes in the PRS, including both conversion to psychosis and clinical remission. Auditory target P3b amplitude shows promise as a putative prognostic biomarker of clinical outcome in the PRS.

OBJECTIVE: Traditional measures for assessing functioning with adult patients with schizophrenia have been shown to be insufficient for assessing the issues that occur in adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. The current study provides an expanded validation of the Global Functioning: Social (GF:Social) and Role (GF:Role) scales developed specifically for use with CHR individuals and explores the reliability and accuracy of the ratings, the validity of the scores in comparison to other established clinical measures, stability of functioning over a 2-year period, and psychosis predictive ability. METHODS: Seven hundred fifty-five CHR individuals and 277 healthy control (HC) participants completed the GF:Social and Role scales at baseline as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2). RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability and accuracy were high for both scales. Correlations between the GF scores and other established clinical measures demonstrated acceptable convergent and discriminant validity. In addition, GF:Social and Role scores were unrelated to positive symptoms. CHR participants showed large impairments in social and role functioning over 2-years, relative to the HCs, even after adjusting for age, IQ, and attenuated positive symptoms. Finally, social decline prior to baseline was more pronounced in CHR converters, relative to non-converters. CONCLUSIONS: The GF scales can be administered in a large-scale multi-site study with excellent inter-rater reliability and accuracy. CHR individuals showed social and role functioning impairments over time that were not confounded by positive symptom severity levels. The results of this study demonstrate that social decline is a particularly effective predictor of conversion outcome.

Objective: There is no standard method for assessing symptoms of the prodrome to bipolar disorder (BD), which has limited progress toward early identification and intervention. We aimed to validate the Bipolar Prodrome Symptom Scale-Abbreviated Screen for Patients (BPSS-AS-P), a brief self-report derived from the validated, clinician-rated Bipolar Prodrome Symptom Interview and Scale-Full Prospective (BPSS-FP), as a means to screen and identify people for whom further evaluation is indicated. Method: Altogether, 134 participants (aged 12–18 years) were drawn from a study of the pre-syndromal stage of mood and psychotic disorders. All participants had chart diagnoses of a mood- or psychosis-spectrum disorder. Participants were interviewed with the BPSS-FP and completed measures of mania and non-mood psychopathology. Prior to being interviewed, patients completed the BPSS-AS-P. Scores on the BPSS-AS-P were determined by summing the severity and frequency ratings for each item. Results: BPSS-AS-P scores were highly reliable (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and correlated with the interview-based BPSS-FP Mania Symptom Index (r = 0.55, p

In the literature, there have been several attempts to develop prediction models for youth who are at clinical high risk (CHR) of developing psychosis. Although there are no specific clinical or demographic variables that seem to consistently predict the later transition to psychosis in those CHR youth, in addition to attenuated psychotic symptoms, the most commonly occuring predictors tend to be poor social functioning and certain cognitive tasks. Unfortunately, there has been little attempt to replicate alogorithms. A recently published article by Cornblatt et al suggested that, for individuals with attentuated psychotic symptoms (APS), disorganized communication, suspiciousness, verbal memory, and a decline in social functioning were the best predictors of later transition to psychosis (the RAP model). The purpose of this article was to first test the prediction model of Cornblatt et al with a new sample of individuals with APS from the PREDICT study. The RAP model was not the best fit for the PREDICT data. However, using other variables from PREDICT, it was demonstrated that unusual thought content, disorganized communication, baseline social functioning, verbal fluency, and memory, processing speed and age were predictors of later transition to psychosis in the PREDICT sample. Although the predictors were different in these 2 models, both supported that disorganized communication, poor social functioning, and verbal memory, were good candidates as predictors for later conversion to psychosis.

Digital communication can mitigate some of the challenges inherent in face-to-face communication; however, it is unclear whether this communication format is preferred among youth with emerging psychosis. Therefore, we examined characteristics of face-to-face and digital communication in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR; n = 19) or in the first episode of psychosis (FEP; n = 57), as well as age-matched community comparisons (n = 51). Participants completed a 25-item self-report questionnaire to assess between- and within-group differences in the frequency of, satisfaction with, and barriers to face-to-face and digital communication. Compared to controls, both clinical groups endorsed a lower frequency of face-to-face and digital interactions across a range of communication partners. Controls reported higher satisfaction and fewer challenges with both communication formats than CHR and FEP groups. No between-group differences were identified among clinical participants in characteristics of face-to-face and digital interactions. Youth at clinical high risk for, or in the first episode of, psychosis exhibited similar communication patterns and perceptions that significantly diverged from community controls. These findings highlight that reductions in the quality and quantity of social interactions extend to digital contexts, and that both communication formats are relevant clinical targets in the high risk and early stages of psychosis.

Memory deficits are a hallmark of psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. However, whether the neural dysfunction underlying these deficits is present before the onset of illness and potentially predicts conversion to psychosis is unclear. In this study, we investigated brain functional alterations during memory processing in a sample of 155 individuals at clinical high risk (including 18 subjects who later converted to full psychosis) and 108 healthy controls drawn from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2). All participants underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging with a paired-associate memory paradigm at the point of recruitment and were clinically followed up for approximately 2 years. We found that at baseline, subjects at high risk showed significantly higher activation during memory retrieval in the prefrontal, parietal, and bilateral temporal cortices (PFWE < .035). This effect was more pronounced in converters than nonconverters and was particularly manifested in unmedicated subjects (P < .001). The hyperactivation was significantly correlated with retrieval reaction time during scan in converters (P = .009) but not in nonconverters and controls, suggesting an exaggerated retrieval effort. These findings suggest that hyperactivation during memory retrieval may mark processes associated with conversion to psychosis, and such measures have potential as biomarkers for psychosis prediction.

OBJECTIVES: DSM-5 conceptualized attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS) as self-contained rather than as a risk syndrome, including it under "Conditions for Further Study," but also as a codable/billable condition in the main section. Since many major mental disorders emerge during adolescence, we assessed the frequency and characteristics of APS in adolescent psychiatric inpatients. METHODS: Consecutively recruited adolescents hospitalized for nonpsychotic disorders (September 2009-May 2013) were divided into APS youth versus non-APS youth, based on the Structured Interview of Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and according to DSM-5 criteria, and compared across multiple characteristics. RESULTS: Of 89 adolescents (mean ± SD age = 15.1 ± 1.6 years), 21 (23.6%) had APS. Compared to non-APS, APS was associated with more comorbid disorders (2.7 ± 1.0 vs 2.2 ± 1.3), major depressive disorder (61.9% vs 27.9%), oppositional defiant disorder/conduct disorder (52.4% vs 25.0%), and personality disorder traits (57.1% vs 7.4%, the only diagnostic category surviving Bonferroni correction). APS youth were more severely ill, having higher SIPS total positive, negative, and general symptoms; Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale total and positive scores; depression and global illness ratings; and lower Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). Conversely, Young Mania Rating Scale scores, suicidal behavior, prescribed psychotropic medications, and mental disorder awareness were similar between APS and non-APS groups. In multivariable analysis, lowest GAF score in the past year (odds ratio [OR] = 51.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.46-2,439.0) and social isolation (OR = 27.52; 95% CI, 3.36-313.87) were independently associated with APS (r(2) = 0.302, P < .0001). Although psychotic disorders were excluded, 65.2% (APS = 57.1%, non-APS = 67.7%, P = .38) received antipsychotics. CONCLUSION: One in 4 nonpsychotic adolescent inpatients met DSM-5 criteria for APS. APS youth were more impaired, showing a complex entanglement with a broad range of psychiatric symptoms and disorders, including depression, impulse-control, and, especially, emerging personality disorders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01383915.

The developmental course of daily functioning prior to first psychosis-onset remains poorly understood. This study explored age-related periods of change in social and role functioning. The longitudinal study included youth (aged 12–23, mean follow-up years = 1.19) at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis (converters [CHR-C], n = 83; nonconverters [CHR-NC], n = 275) and a healthy control group (n = 164). Mixed-model analyses were performed to determine age-related differences in social and role functioning. We limited our analyses to functioning before psychosis conversion; thus, data of CHR-C participants gathered after psychosis onset were excluded. In controls, social and role functioning improved over time. From at least age 12, functioning in CHR was poorer than in controls, and this lag persisted over time. Between ages 15 and 18, social functioning in CHR-C stagnated and diverged from that of CHR-NC, who continued to improve (p = .001). Subsequently, CHR-C lagged behind in improvement between ages 21 and 23, further distinguishing them from CHR-NC (p < .001). A similar period of stagnation was apparent for role functioning, but to a lesser extent (p = .007). The results remained consistent when we accounted for the time to conversion. Our findings suggest that CHR-C start lagging behind CHR-NC in social and role functioning in adolescence, followed by a period of further stagnation in adulthood.

Background: Recent studies have recognized that signs of functional disability in schizophrenia are evident in early phases of the disorder, and, as a result, can potentially serve as vulnerability markers of future illness. However, functional measures in the psychosis prodrome have focused exclusively on real-world accomplishment (ie, achievement), rather than on the skills required to carry-out a particular real-world function (ie, capacity). From this perspective capacity provides the foundation for what can actually be achieved. This is comparable to the comparison between IQ (capacity) vs grades at school (achievement). In one of the first reports of its kind, we introduced the Map task, a laboratory-based measure specifically designed to assess a young person’s basic capacity to carry-out age-appropriate skills that lead to independent community living (McLaughlin et al., 2016). Poor performance on the Map task was found to be predictive of conversion to psychosis, suggesting that functional capacity in the prodrome may represent a basic biologically-based vulnerability factor. Given that diminished functional capacity is often a key barrier to good functional outcomes in patients with schizophrenia, the current study sought to next evaluate whether deficits in capacity can also predict social and role (ie, academic) functioning in the prodrome.

Background: The vast majority of studies of neuropsychological (NP) functioning in Clinical High Risk (CHR) cohorts have examined group averages, possibly concealing a range of subgroups ranging from very impaired to high functioning. Our objective was to assess NP profiles and to explore associations with conversion to psychosis, functional and diagnostic outcome. Methods: Data were acquired from individuals (mean age 18.4, SD=4.6) participating in the longitudinal North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-I (NAPLS-I), a multi-site consortium following individuals at CHR for developing psychosis for up to 2½ years. By applying the Hierarchical Clustering Ward’s method including 8 different neuropsychological tests, we clustered data of 166 CHR individuals, 49 persons with a family history of psychosis without prodromal symptoms, and 109 healthy controls. We then tested whether cluster profiles with more severe NP impairments were associated with higher conversion rates, lower social and role functioning scores, and/or more chronic diagnostic outcomes compared to the lesser-impaired profiles. To examine clinical utility, analyses were repeated after data were clustered based on clinical decision rules that were established by clinical experts in the field. Results: Four distinctive profile clusters best described the level of NP performance in our CHR cohort: Severely Impaired (n=33); Clearly Abnormal (n=82); Borderline (n=145) and Normal (n=64). The Severely Impaired cluster largely distinguished itself from the rest of the clusters by larger deviations on processing speed and memory tasks. We found compelling differences in outcome between cluster profiles. Importantly, those assigned to the most impaired profile had a conversion rate of 42.4%, had a 40% chance of developing a diagnosis in the schizophrenia spectrum (as compared to 24.4% in the Clearly impaired, 7.4 % in the Borderline impaired and 2.9% in the Normal functioning group), and had significantly worse social (P < .001) and role (P < .001) functioning scores at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Similar results were obtained when data were clustered following clinical decision rules. Conclusion: Despite extensive neuropsychological investigations within CHR cohorts, this is one of the first studies to investigate NP clustering profiles as a contributor to heterogeneity in outcome. Our results indicate that the four NP profiles vary substantially in their outcome, underscoring the relevance of cognitive functioning in the prediction of illness progression. Our findings may tentatively suggest that individualized cognitive profiling should be explored in clinical settings, and my point to important directions for personalized treatment.

Background: Reductions in the auditory P300 event-related potential (ERP) component are well established in schizophrenia and reflect early attention-mediated auditory processing deficits. Two subcomponents of P300 are evident depending on oddball task conditions; P3b is elicited by infrequent target stimuli and reflects top-down attention allocation, whereas P3a is elicited by infrequent non-target novel distractor stimuli and reflects bottom-up orienting of attention. The present study examined whether auditory P300 abnormalities precede illness onset and are associated with future clinical status by assessing both target P3b and novel P3a in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and healthy controls (HC) collected as part of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Methods: CHR (n=552) and HC (n=235) participants completed baseline EEG recording during an auditory oddball task. CHR participants were further categorized by clinical status after 24months of study participation (n=298) and included a subgroup who transitioned to psychosis (CHR-Transition; n=73), a subgroup who did not transition but remained symptomatic (CHR-Symptomatic; n=135), and a subgroup who did not transition and was in symptom remission (CHR-Remission; n=90). Results: CHR participants had reduced target P3b and novel P3a amplitudes relative to HC (Ps < .001). There was also an effect of 24-month clinical status group on both P3b and P3a amplitudes (P < .001 and P=.006, respectively). Planned contrasts revealed that compared to HC, CHR participants had smaller target P3b amplitudes at baseline (P < .001). In addition, CHR-Transition participants had attenuated P3b amplitudes at baseline relative to all CHR participants who did not transition to psychosis (P=.037). Furthermore, both CHR-Transition and CHR-Symptomatic had smaller P3b amplitudes than both HC (Ps < .001) and CHR-Remission (P=.003 and P=.005, respectively), while P3b of CHR-Remission did not differ from HC at baseline (P > .05). In contrast, although CHR participants also had smaller novel P3a amplitudes than HC at baseline (P < .001), P3a did not differentiate CHR-Transition participants from CHR participants who did not transition within 24months (P > .05). Despite CHR-Transition and CHR-Symptomatic having smaller P3a amplitudes than HC (P=.028 and P=.002, respectively), they did not differ from CHR-Remission (Ps > .05) at baseline. Moreover, target P3b predicted the time to psychosis onset in CHR participants over and above novel P3a amplitude (P=.024). Conclusion: Both target P3b and novel P3a are reduced in individuals identified to be at risk for developing a psychotic disorder, and P3b in particular appears sensitive to future transition to psychosis. Given this association with clinical outcomes, results implicate target P3b as a neurophysiological vulnerability marker for psychosis.

BackgroundFunctional decline among patients with mental illness is not unique to individuals with psychotic disorders. Despite this, research on early predictors of functional outcome mainly focused on individuals thought to have an ‘at risk mental state’ (ARMS) for psychosis. There is evidence suggesting that certain early vulnerability markers, such as neurological soft signs (NSS), may explain variability in functional outcomes independent of the level of psychosis risk and the traditional diagnostic classification.MethodStructural equation modeling was applied to baseline data from a prospective longitudinal study of 138 young individuals in treatment with secondary services for non-psychotic disorders. We evaluated theoretically based models of pathways to functional outcome starting from NSS. The intervening variables were established according to previous evidence and drawn from two general categories: cognition (neuro- and social-) and negative symptoms (expressive and experiential).ResultsA final trimmed model was a single path running from NSS to neurocognition to experiential negative symptoms to outcome. It could not be improved by adding or dropping connections that would change the single path to multiple paths. The indirect effect from NSS to outcome was significant. The validity of the model was independent of the ARMS status and the psychiatric diagnosis.ConclusionsOur results provide evidence for a single pathway model in which the starting and intervening variables represent modifiable trans-diagnostic therapeutic targets to improve functional trajectories in young individuals with a recent-onset psychiatric diagnosis and different levels of psychosis risk.

Aims A major public health concern associated with schizophrenia is the long-term disability that involves an inability to function independently in the community. An individual's self-awareness of functional impairment may be a significant factor contributing to long-term disability. In fact, subjective interpretation of one's illness impacts treatment participation and adherence, and is linked to poor outcomes. However, it remains unclear how illness-related functional impairment is perceived by individuals prior to the onset of psychosis. This study aims to examine the relationship between clinician-based and self-report assessments of functioning, as well as the contribution of clinical symptoms to this relationship in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis. Methods The Sheehan Disability Scale, a self-rated instrument, was used to measure disruption in daily functioning in social and role functioning due to symptoms in a sample of 73 treatment-seeking patients at clinical high-risk for psychosis and 50 healthy controls. Results Relative to healthy controls, clinical high-risk patients self-reported significant disruptions in social and role functioning. In addition, a specific relationship emerged in that clinician-rated measures of functioning and depression were related to subjective functioning. Conclusions These findings suggest that clinical high-risk patients are significantly disturbed by their illness. Self-reported disruption of daily functioning was associated with clinician-rated functioning and depressive symptoms, further highlighting the impact of functional impairments on the level of distress experienced by patients in the early phases of the illness. Intervention strategies that repair functional impairment before the onset of psychosis may prevent long-term disability.

A critical research goal is to identify modifiable risk factors leading to functional disabilities in young psychiatric patients. The authors developed a multidimensional trans-diagnostic predictive model of functional outcome in patients with the recent-onset of a psychiatric illness. Baseline clinical, psychosis-risk status, cognitive, neurological-soft-signs measures, and dopamine-related-gene polymorphisms (DRD1-rs4532, COMT-rs165599, and DRD4-rs1800955) were collected in 138 young non-psychotic outpatients. 116 individuals underwent follow-up (mean = 2.2 years, SD = 0.9) examination. A binary logistic model was used to predict low-functioning status at follow-up as defined by a score lower than 65 in the social occupational functioning assessment scale. A total of 54% of patients experiences low functioning at follow-up. Attention, Avolition, and Motor-Coordination subscale were significant predictors of low-functioning with an accuracy of 79.7%. A non-significant trend was found for a dopamine-related-gene polymorphism (DRD1-rs4532). The model was independent of psychotic-risk status, DSM-diagnosis, and psychotic conversion. A trans-diagnostic approach taking into account specific neurocognitive, clinical, and neurological information has the potential to identify those individuals with low-functioning independent of DSM diagnosis or the level of psychosis-risk. Specific early interventions targeting modifiable risk factors and emphasize functional recovery in young psychiatric samples, independent of DSM-diagnosis and psychosis-risk, are essential.

ObjectiveAs part of the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS-2), Cannon and colleagues report, concurrently with the present article, on a risk calculator for the individualized prediction of a psychotic disorder in a 2-year period. The present study represents an external validation of the NAPLS-2 psychosis risk calculator using an independent sample of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis collected as part of the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP).MethodOf the total EDIPPP sample of 210 subjects rated as being at clinical high risk based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, 176 had at least one follow-up assessment and were included in the construction of a new prediction model with six predictor variables in the NAPLS-2 psychosis risk calculator (unusual thoughts and suspiciousness, symbol coding test performance, verbal learning test performance, decline in social functioning, baseline age, and family history). Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The NAPLS-2 risk calculator was then used to generate a psychosis risk estimate for each case in the external validation sample.ResultsThe external validation model showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.790 (95% CI=0.644-0.937). In addition, the personalized risk generated by the risk calculator provided a solid estimation of the actual conversion outcome in the validation sample.ConclusionsTwo independent samples of clinical high-risk patients converge to validate the NAPLS-2 psychosis risk calculator. This prediction calculator represents a meaningful step toward early intervention and the personalized treatment of psychotic disorders.

Research in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis has focused on subjects with no more than 12 months of present or worsened attenuated positive symptoms. However, the impact of long duration attenuated positive and/or negative prodromal symptoms on outcomes is unclear. Seventy-six CHR subjects with attenuated positive symptoms and at least moderate severity level negative symptoms rated on the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) were prospectively followed for a mean of 3.0 ± 1.6 years. Social and Role functioning was assessed with the Global Functioning: Social and Role scales. Correlations between attenuated positive and negative symptom duration and severity and conversion to psychosis and functional outcomes were analyzed. The average onset of SOPS rated negative symptoms (M = 53.24 months, SD = 48.90, median = 37.27) was approximately twelve months prior to the emergence of attenuated positive symptom (M = 40.15 months, SD = 40.33, median = 24.77, P

Themovement towardpreventionofpsychosiswas launched in themid-1990s1 with the introduction of a set of criteria for identifying individuals at risk for future illness. Referred to as the prodromal phase of illness, it was theorized that by identifying youngsters (primarilyadolescentsandyoung adults) several years before onset, preemptive intervention could block the emergence of florid psychosis. Three subgroups were included in the definition of clinical high risk (CHR), also called ultrahigh risk (UHR), based to a large extentontheclinicalobservation: (1)presenceofattenuatedpositive symptoms (APS) considered an early, subtle form of the hallmarksymptomsofpsychosis; (2)presenceofpositivesymptoms at full psychotic intensity for brief, limited time points, referred to as brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) or brief limited intermittent psychotic episode (BLIPS); and (3) a trait/state combination of genetic risk or schizotypal personality disorder accompanied by functional decline, labeled genetic risk and decline (GRD). These 3 subgroups have remainedrelativelyunchangedsince their introduction,andtheir criteria have dominated prodromal research.2 They are typically merged into a single CHR research entity, with no distinction made and with no understanding of the extent to which variability in conversion rates across studies is due to differences in subgroup composition. Furthermore, the CHR research entity is based on the implicit assumption that the 3 subgroupsare comparable although there isnoevidenceavailable to indicate thatAPS,BIPS, andGRDrepresent similar progressions of the disease, and, in fact, they appear to be quite separate and (sometimes very) different risk syndromes. Over time, it has become increasingly clear that when selection of at-risk individuals is based entirely on these traditional CHR criteria, prediction accuracy is, at best, moderate, with recent rates reported to be approximately 15% to 25%.2 Attempts to improve prediction by adding other, more biologically based risk factors, such as neurocognitive deficits, have thus far proven to be highly sample specific and inconsistent from study to study. Currently, close to 70% of persons identifiedasCHRneverdevelopapsychoticdisorder,with all the resultingdifficulties associatedwithunnecessary treatment given to individuals with false-positive identifications. The low rate of true-positive identifications of psychosis also represents a major challenge because it reduces the power of clinical trials to evaluate effective treatments and is a likely explanationfor the inconclusive findingsofseveralpotentialearly interventions.3 Thus, it has becomemore apparent thatmodification and refinement of the CHR clinical criteria and definitions are essential for the field to progress. The meta-analytic study by Fusar-Poli et al2 in this issue of JAMA Psychiatry, to our knowledge, presents the first major assessment of the validity of each of the 3 clinical subgroups and, in so doing, provides the groundwork for greatly improving the field of prevention. The authors found that the heterogeneity of the CHR construct may well be a major researchconfoundand thateachsubgroup is associatedwithdifferent combinations of state/trait risk factors andwith different levels of risk. Of the 3 traditional CHR criterion subgroups, the validity of the APS subgroup ismost solidly supported and the GRD is most solidly challenged by the findings reported by FusarPoli et al. TheAPScategoryessentially reflects riskdue to clinical state in that it is a rating of severity of attenuated positive symptoms. In the meta-analysis, most of the patients (85%) were in theAPS subgroup,whichafter 2yearsof follow-uphad an overall transition rate to psychosis of 19%. Comparatively, the GRD category is a heterogeneous mixture of state (functional decline) and traits (family history, schizotypal personality disorder), and this lack of focus is one possible explanation for the very low conversion rate. As reported by the authors, after 2 years of follow-up, the GRD subgroup had a conversion rate of 3% and was therefore not associated with an increasedriskofpsychosis.Theauthorsalso foundthat there was virtually no difference in conversion rates between the APS-only subgroupand individualswhomet theAPSandGRD criteria (19% vs 17%), suggesting that there is no additive risk for comorbid APS and GRD criteria and that it is the presence of APS alone that increases psychosis risk. In addition, there werenosignificantdifferencesbetweentheGRDsubgroupand help-seeking individualswhodidnotmeetCHRcriteria.Taken together, these findings suggest that the GRD category is not a valid component of the CHR syndrome and further suggest that the conversion rates of approximately 15% for offspring ofaparentwithschizophrenia reported in the1960sand1970s4 are not reflected in GRD prodromal populations. This is most likely because of differentmethods of ascertainment and the possibility (not as yet researched) that APS is not a widespreadcharacteristic of individualswith familial riskwho later convert. Rather, family risk combined with functional decline should beused as an additional risk factor in individuals who also have attenuated positive symptoms.5 Finally, on the basis of themeta-analytic findings, a question can also be raised about the inclusionof theBIPS category in theCHRcriteria.Fusar-Poli et al2 foundthatafter2years, the Related article page 113 Opinion

While attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and basic symptoms (BS) are the main current predictors of psychosis in adults, studies in adolescents are scarce. Thus, we (1) described the prevalence and severity of positive, negative, disorganization, general, and basic symptoms in adolescent patients at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR), with other non-psychotic psychiatric disorders (PC) and with early-onset psychosis (EOP); and (2) investigated BS criteria in relation to UHR criteria. Sixty-nine 12-18-year-old adolescents (15.3 ± 1.7 years, female = 58.0 %, UHR = 22, PC = 27, EOP = 20) were assessed with the structured interview for prodromal syndromes (SIPS) and the schizophrenia proneness instrument-child and youth version (SPI-CY). Despite similar current and past 12-month global functioning, both UHR and EOP had significantly higher SIPS total and subscale scores compared to PC, with moderate-large effect sizes. Expectedly, UHR had significantly lower SIPS positive symptom scores than EOP, but similar SIPS negative, disorganized, and general symptom scores. Compared to PC, both EOP and UHR had more severe basic thought and perception disturbances, and significantly more often met cognitive disturbances criteria (EOP = 50.0 %, UHR = 40.9 %, PC = 14.8 %). Compared to UHR, both EOP and PC significantly less often met cognitive-perceptive BS criteria (EOP = 35.0 %, UHR = 68.2 %, PC = 25.9 %). BS were significantly more prevalent in both EOP and UHR than PC, and UHR were similar to EOP in symptom domains. Given the uncertain outcome of adolescents at clinical high-risk of psychosis, future research is needed to determine whether the combined assessment of early subjective disturbances with observable APS can improve the accuracy of psychosis prediction.

A large body of studies provides evidence for a link between neurocognition, theory of mind (ToM) and functioning in psychotic spectrum disorders (PSDs), with ToM mediating the effect that neurocognition has on functioning. These three constructs and the related mediation effect may characterize different psychiatric syndromes other than PSDs. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied to baseline data from a longitudinal study of 138 young individuals with a recent-onset psychiatric disorder. Using SEM, we tested the hypothesis that ToM mediates the effect of neurocognition on functioning independent of the level of psychosis risk and the diagnostic category. In the mediation model the bootstrapping estimate revealed a significant indirect effect that was the association of social cognition with neurocognition and with functional outcome. ToM was significantly associated with neurocognition and the path from neurocognition to functioning was no longer significant as soon as the mediator (ToM) was entered into the mediation model consistent with a complete mediation effect through ToM. This mediation was independent of the psychosis-risk status and the psychiatric diagnoses. Our results provide useful information on a young psychiatric sample, in which specific therapeutic interventions have the potential to significantly limit functional disability.

BackgroundAccuracy of risk algorithms for psychosis prediction in “at risk mental state” (ARMS) samples may differ according to the recruitment setting. Standardized criteria used to detect ARMS individuals may lack specificity if the recruitment setting is a secondary mental health service. The authors tested a modified strategy to predict psychosis conversion in this setting by using a systematic selection of trait-markers of the psychosis prodrome in a sample with a heterogeneous ARMS status.Methods138 non-psychotic outpatients (aged 17–31) were consecutively recruited in secondary mental health services and followed-up for up to 3 years (mean follow-up time, 2.2 years; SD = 0.9). Baseline ARMS status, clinical, demographic, cognitive, and neurological soft signs measures were collected. Cox regression was used to derive a risk index.Results48% individuals met ARMS criteria (ARMS-Positive, ARMS+). Conversion rate to psychosis was 21% for the overall sample, 34% for ARMS+, and 9% for ARMS-Negative (ARMS−). The final predictor model with a positive predictive validity of 80% consisted of four variables: Disorder of Thought Content, visuospatial/constructional deficits, sensory-integration, and theory-of-mind abnormalities. Removing Disorder of Thought Content from the model only slightly modified the predictive accuracy (−6.2%), but increased the sensitivity (+9.5%).ConclusionsThese results suggest that in a secondary mental health setting the use of trait-markers of the psychosis prodrome may predict psychosis conversion with great accuracy despite the heterogeneity of the ARMS status. The use of the proposed predictive algorithm may enable a selective recruitment, potentially reducing duration of untreated psychosis and improving prognostic outcomes.

The 3rd Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference was held in Florence, Italy, April 14-18, 2012 and this year had as its emphasis, "The Globalization of Research". Student travel awardees served as rapporteurs for each oral session and focused their summaries on the most significant findings that emerged and the discussions that followed. The following report is a composite of these summaries. We hope that it will provide an overview for those who were present, but could not participate in all sessions, and those who did not have the opportunity to attend, but who would be interested in an update on current investigations ongoing in the field of schizophrenia research. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Objectives: Risk for psychosis is currently defined primarily on the basis of attenuated positive symptoms (APS), with no inclusion of the functional deficits characteristic of schizophrenia. Impaired social and role functioning have been of interest for reflecting poor outcome but far less is known about the developmental impact of these deficits as vulnerability or risk factors. Methods: Age-appropriate social and role functioning were prospectively assessed in 100 individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis included in the 8-site North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study database. A nested case-control design was used to compare changes in social and role functioning in 26 individuals converting to psychosis shortly after baseline assessment and 24 converting over a year later. Individuals in each converter subgroup were directly matched to a non-converter at the same site, controlling for time to conversion, age, gender, and severity of baseline symptoms. Results: At baseline, CHR subjects who later became psychotic were significantly more likely to be impaired socially than matched non-converters. Onset of psychosis did not further disrupt social difficulties. Role functioning showed some of the same trends, but the overall pattern was not as consistent as for the social domain. Controlling for neurocognition did not change the pattern of group differences. Conclusions: Early impaired social functioning appears to be a risk factor for psychosis and, added to APS, could potentially contribute to accurate identification of CHR individuals and provide a new direction for early intervention to reduce long-term disability.