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Purpose This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets. Findings The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies. Research limitations/implications The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities. Practical implications The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation. Originality/value Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

Although currently limited, services trade holds great potential for Bangladesh, as services already make a major contribution to GDP and employment. Services represent an important alternative (in the longer term) or complement (in the shorter term) to ready-made garments (RMGs), which have long dominated Bangladesh’s export mix. The country is poised to see declining RMG export revenues when the country graduates out of least developed country (LDC) status and loses its trade preferences in global markets. To build domestic capacity with a view to developing its services export sector, Bangladesh needs to open its market to services imports. But what approach would be best? Can a plurilateral trade agreement (PTA) like the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA), whose members have sought to stimulate their services sectors through more liberalized trade, ever be an option? We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the effects of TiSA membership on Bangladesh’s economy. The results show that, overall, Bangladesh would derive marginal benefit from TiSA, but employment and exports would suffer. The worst-affected sectors would be agriculture and textiles and clothing, the country’s largest employers. To lessen the impact of increased foreign competition, a regional trade approach is recommended, supported by a sound national services strategy which would include a roadmap for tackling the country’s myriad supply-side shortcomings. JEL: F13, F14, F15, F16

This paper explores the natural synergies between industrial cluster formation and the identification of realistic export opportunities (REOs), using the TRADE-DSM1 for a resource-dependent region, the North West Province of South Africa. The structural path analysis and power of pull methods were applied to a provincial social accounting matrix to identify the top industrial clusters. Ten industrial clusters were identified and matched to the results of the TRADE-DSM. Six of the industrial clusters analysed had REOs. These results provide a basis for focused export market development and for the formalisation of the cluster initiative as a strategy for sustained economic and export growth.

Background: Public universities in South Africa play an extremely important role in preparing students for productive and fulfilling careers. Universities also, directly and indirectly, benefit the economy through high levels of operational and capital expenditure and by providing employment to both academic and administrative staff. Aim: The aim of this article is to quantify the economic benefits of one of South Africa’s largest universities, and to determine what strategic view the university should take to maximise the benefit for the economy. Setting: The Potchefstroom campus of the North-West University in South Africa is used for the analysis. Methods: The primary method to determine is a social accounting matrix of the North West province, while data collected through a staff and student survey are used to refine and apply the analysis for the university campus. Results: The economic benefits of a university are much more significant than might initially be assumed. Among the findings is that North-West University should absorb relatively higher numbers of contact, rather than distance learning, students if it is to make a sustainable contribution to the provincial economy. Conclusion: Student spending has a direct and significant impact on the economy and helps to promote national income and employment creation within the province. The results of the study provide valuable insights for cities and provinces that have established new public universities.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and comparison of three related methods for modelling the short-run economic impact of events, namely the partial Input-Output (I-O), Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. An analysis of strengths and limitations of these different methods suggests that it may be considerations such as the underlying assumptions specific to each model, data collection, expected output, research objectives, and costs involved that determine the choice of modelling framework. Data from surveys conducted at the Aardklop National Arts Festival during 2010 were used in the comparative analyses, which were executed by means of two regional (i.e. provincial-level) models and one small-region (i.e. place-specific) model constructed for the small town.

Governments may decide to control the export of unprocessed raw materials hoping that this will promote local downstream industries. There is scant empirical examination of the actual outcomes of such policies put in place. This paper describes use of export control measures by four minerals-rich African countries and looks for effects on activities downstream from the extractive sector that may be attributed to these measures. The measures studied are export taxes, non-automatic export licensing requirements and outright export bans. The industries are manganese in Gabon, lead in South Africa, copper in Zambia and chromite in Zimbabwe. For the empirical analysis the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index is calculated tracking over 20 years the relative global performance of the local mining and processing industries, for the specific minerals studied. The effect of the restrictive measures is investigated by way of identifying structural breaks in the level of the RCA index, for both the raw mineral and related processed products. The results suggest that use of export restrictions as a tool for stimulating local mineral processing does not pay off. There was no improvement in the revealed comparative advantage of processed products presumed to benefit from export controls on the raw material. Moreover, the measures may have undermined the overall performance of the industries in some of the cases studied because the relative export performance of the mined minerals deteriorated.

The core of South Africa tourism industry is based on wildlife tourism. Private game reserves and game farms which forms part of wildlife tourism constitute most of the wildlife products in South Africa. On these private reserves and game farms, hunting is one of the major income generators for product owners. The aim of this study is to analyse the economic impact of hunting on the regional economies of three of South Africa’s most important hunting provinces. The study used economic multipliers, input-output analysis, and related modelling processes through input-output (supply-use) tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). The results differed significantly for the three provinces, with Limpopo receiving the biggest impact (R2.6 billion) and the Free State having the highest multiplier (2.08). The geographical location of the game farms, the number of farms per province and the species available all influenced the magnitude of the economic impact of hunters over and above the traditional determinants of economic impact analysis. The implication of the research is that it will help product owners in the development of game farms or hunting products, contribute to policy formulation, especially for government decisions on what products to offer where, and how to create more jobs.

The objective of this paper is to analyse the utilisation of production capacity and total under-utilisation in order to identify weak-performing industries across the nine South African provinces. Detecting inefficiencies within the different provinces will help to identify where sound managerial or government intervention is required, which can contribute to the future success of the New Growth Path Framework and the Strategic Integrated Projects. Using a multistage data envelopment analysis model at the subnational level, several categories of production factors are explored: intermediate demand, labour, capital, as well as taxes and subsidies. The results emphasise South Africa's weak infrastructure and the failure to effectively promote stability in managing factor inputs. The results further illustrate that industry scale efficiency for water and electricity are poorest across all provinces, highlighting the current water and energy supply concerns in South Africa and problem areas associated with the National Development Program.

This article focuses on an economic assessment of the target obtained in South Africa regarding the Klein Karoo National Arts Festival (KKNK) applying both SAM and CGE models. Since both models have advantages and disadvantages, tourism economists are confronted with the predicament of determining which model is most suitable for application to any specific event. The findings reveal that when different models are applied to the same dataset from an event, the reported economic impact results differ significantly. Results indicate that considerations such as the data collection or compilation, expected output, research objectives and costs involved will determine the choice of a specific modelling framework. Data from a visitor survey conducted at the KKNK during 2010 were used in the analyses. This finding serves as a warning to assessors that economic impact results can be misleading and, therefore, the application thereof should be handled with the utmost care as the results can readily be misinterpreted by stakeholders. http://reference.sabinet.co.za.nwulib.nwu.ac.za/sa_epublication/jefs http://reference.sabinet.co.za.nwulib.nwu.ac.za/document/EJC135919

With the rapid and sharp rise in energy prices in South Africa, the cost of energy is becoming a factor that cannot be ignored in either energy-intensive or -dependent industries. In the energy-intensive industries, for examp le, this immed iate and direct perspective can result in the incurring of costs that are greatly magnified by the large amount of power consumed. Few would therefore deny the importance of electricity as an essential input to production and to economic activity in general. Based on the fact that changes in electricity prices impact on basically each and every individual in South Africa, and mo re specifically on an energy utility provider's core business, it is important to determine its effect on each of these entities. The develop ment of an analytical Cost of Production Tipping Po int (CoPTP) model, combined with the economy-wide modelling capabilit ies of an Applied General Equilib riu m (A GE) model for South Africa, will help to determine what the potential impact would be, given the market forces at play at any particular instance. The aim of this paper is therefore to help develop an understanding of the impact of increasing electricity prices on an energy utility provider's main assets - its customers, by determining the broader potential economic impact on the South African economy. The value of this framewo rk is therefore that it will provide strategic context, will allow for a better understanding of the influence of electricity price increases on both energy-intensive and -dependent industries, while also informing key stakeholders regard ing imp lications of potential changes in customer operational environ ments to an energy utility provider in terms of potential revenue risk implications, as well as to the rest of industry and the broader market in South Africa due to potential second round feedback effects.

The Kruger National Park in South Africa is a key ecotourism attraction for both domestic and international tourists. The South African National Parks have recently come under pressure to uplift communities and to build relationships with communities. This study therefore aimed to answer the question: how do communities benefit from the Kruger Park? Two surveys were conducted: a tourist survey to estimate expenditures, and a community survey to determine the perceived contribution of the Park. The results show that the Park has a significant impact on the local economies in both income and employment generation. Local communities have a positive attitude to the Park and deem it to have a beneficial effect on their quality of life. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2012.715444 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/0376835X.2012.715444

Historically, tourism policy analysis in South Africa has posed challenges to accurate measurement. The primary reason for this is that tourism is not designated as an 'industry' in standard economic accounts. This paper therefore demonstrates the relevance and need for applied general equilibrium (AGE) models to be completed and extended through an integration with tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) as a tool for policy makers (especially tourism policy makers) in South Africa. The paper sets out the reasons behind the need for economic models for policy analysis and other purposes, and gives an overview of old and new approaches to tourism policy modelling. The relevance of integrated models to, specifically, tourism policy analysis both internationally and in the South African context is discussed, followed by an illustrative empirical simulation of an exogenous inbound tourism expansion of 10%, against the background of the relationship between tourism and economic development. Furthermore, the indirect effects of an input-output model are also presented for comparison. The results confirm that the integrated approach is a more accurate tool for policy analysis. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0058 Copyright c [2011] IP Publishing Ltd. Reproduced by permission.

Competition in the festival market has important implications for South African arts/cultural festivals. To assist a festival to remain sustainable, market segmentation is an effective tool to divide existing and potential markets into homogenous groups based on meaningful characteristics. The aim of this article is to segment visitors (by using visitor expenditure as segmentation method) to one of South Africa's largest arts festivals, namely the Aardklop National Arts Festival held annually in Potchefstroom in the North West province. A questionnaire survey (N=1 671) was conducted annually at the festival and data from 2005 to 2008 were analysed. In the results four expenditure segments were identified and the analysis confirmed significant differences in socio-demographic and behavioural variables/characteristics between these different expenditure groups. Managerial and marketing implications are consequently proposed for the festival organisers.

This paper estimates the economic value of South Africa's longest running national arts festival, the Grahamstown National Arts Festival in the Eastern Cape Province. The Eastern Cape is a middle-income province (6.6% of national GDP), settles 9.6% of the South African population and has a high unemployment rate. A survey was conducted in July 2009, with 450 visitors completing a structured questionnaire at various sampling locations across the festival area. A social accounting matrix (SAM) for the province was used to estimate the economic value of the arts festival to the region's economy (adopting the classical SAMs multiplier approach) with visitor depending data. This research shows that the festival makes a significant contribution to revenue generation as well as to job creation, thereby confirming that investments made by government in arts and culture can address economic objectives. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0049 Copyright c [2011] IP Publishing Ltd. Reproduced by permission.

In this paper we discuss relationship between export diversity and economic performance, focusing on brazil, china, india and south africa (bcis). Using time data on exports over the period 1962–2000 and applied general equilibrium (age) models for each country, we note the similarities as well as differences in the patterns of diversification in these countries. We find evidence of a u-shape relationship between per capita income and export specialization in at least china and south africa, and given that the results from granger causality testing are inconclusive and not robust with regards to export diversification measures, some preliminary evidence from the results suggest that export diversification granger causes gdp per capita in brazil, china and south africa, but not in india, where it is rather gdp per capita changes that are driving export diversification. From age modeling we find that south africa differs from the other economies in that it is the only case where export diversification has an unambiguously positive impact on economic development while in contrast in brazil, china and india, it is rather export specialization that is preferred. We show that the manner in which export diversification is obtained may be important: if it is obtained with less of a reduction in traditional exports, the impacts are better (less negative).

Economic impact studies have been used to value goods with the characteristics of both public and private goods, such as arts festivals, and have been useful in providing a quantifiable monetary estimate of their worth and, more accurately, of the impact of such events on a specific region. This paper provides just such a valuation, using economic impact analysis conducted on surveys of visitor and organiser spending at the 2009 Cape Town International Jazz Festival. On the basis of the survey data and event budget, a social accounting matrix (SAM) for the Western Cape Province was used to estimate the economic value of the festival to the province's economy (using the classic SAM's multiplier approach). The results of the analysis show that the festival generates approximately R158 million via visitor and organiser spending, and that 1059 jobs depend on it.

Economic modelling techniques can assist policy makers to understand the effects of policy or external shocks and to make informed decisions about economic development programmes. Economic diversification is a priority of resource-dependent regions such as South Africas North West Province (NWP) in the wake of the 2014 platinum strike. The economy of the NWP is highly specialised and dependent on a few sectors - in particular, mining and quarrying. Both the NWP and the South African economies were adversely affected by a prolonged strike in the platinum sector.This paper sets out to illustrate the effects of industrial cluster formation as a strategy to enhance competitiveness in the NWP and diversify its economy using SAM multiplier analysis. The supported activity of eight of the ten industrial clusters was shown to be greater than the actual activity, indicating that industrial cluster formation will enhance economic activity in the NWP. Of the ten identified clusters for the NWP, four were found to be moderately integrated and to have high upstream effects. Finally, structural change in the NWP economy through industrial cluster formation was observed using economic landscaping. A key finding was that the identified industrial clusters are significant contributors to the structural change of the NWP economic landscape with the promotion of cluster-specific exports. It is recommended that the North West provincial government adopt this strategy with a view to enhancing competitiveness and economic diversification.

Dependency on commodity exports is seen as a structural weakness in resource dependent regions. Not surprisingly, such regions have made economic diversification a key priority. The economy of South Africas North West Province (NWP), a rich platinum and gold mining region, is highly specialised and dependent on a few sectors. This paper proposes industrial cluster formation as a means of diversifying the NWP economy and enhancing competitiveness in the province. The structural path analysis and Power-of-Pull methods were used to identify and rank order the industrial clusters that offer the greatest economy-wide benefits, while also creating opportunities for cross-sectoral collaboration.

Orientation : There is startlingly little economic research on the South African wildlife sector which contributes toward disputes regarding the economic contribution of the sector. Research purpose : The purpose of this article is to put into context the relative economic contribution of the wildlife ranching sector, as opposed to other land-use options in South Africa. Motivation for the study : Growth in the wildlife ranching sector at the cost of other traditional farming practices resulted in disagreements amongst various role players about the impact thereof on the national economy. The controversy can most probably be explained by different beliefs, coupled with the lack of a proper understanding and quantification of the wildlife ranching sector's contribution toward the economy. Research methodology : The study employed a Social Accounting Matrix-based Leontief multiplier analysis for South Africa. Main findings : Results from the multiplier analysis revealed that developments within the wildlife ranching sector are likely to make a relatively more superior contribution towards the economy, especially when compared to similar land-use options such as extensive livestock production. Practical/managerial implications : It has been acknowledged by both academia and private sector that a major need exists for more research on the South African wildlife ranching industry, specifically looking at issues such as the industries, economic and social contributions, potentials and constraints. The research, therefore, contributes toward the depth of economic information and research regarding the South African wildlife sector. Contribution/value added : The research provides valuable information in dealing with the 'popular belief', especially amongst some of South Africa's decision makers, namely, that growth in the wildlife ranching sector is not or does not have the ability to contribute significantly toward economic and socioeconomic factors. http://actacommercii.co.za/index.php/acta/issue/view/15 http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/ac.v14i1.225

It has been said that the development of a shale gas industry could be a ‘game changer’ for South Africa. Proponents of shale gas tend to emphasise the benefits, whilst opponents emphasise the environmental costs. This paper is an attempt to inform the policy debate by highlighting both the potential economic benefits and environmental costs. To date, the Econometrix report (published in 2012) provides the only estimate of the economic impacts that may emanate from developing the Karoo’s shale gas. The report uses a Keynesian multiplier model to estimate the impacts. The analysis performed in this paper estimates the economic impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach, and the results are compared to the findings of the Econometrix report. In doing so, this paper provides an expanded view of the potential economic impact. Accordingly, this paper provides a number of findings on the estimated economic impact of shale gas extraction – based on the application of an economy-wide impact modelling methodology – which should be of interest to both opponents and proponents of the shale gas industry. By including all possible results, such as a boost in public sector jobs and an analysis of the impact on consumer prices and jobs in other sectors, this paper expands the current understanding of the likely impact of shale gas extraction in the Karoo of South Africa. Key words: shale gas extraction, economy-wide modelling, CGE, exhaustible resources

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2012.706041 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/0376835X.2012.706041

Sport events have become big business as countries as well as cities are competing fiercely to host major events. The purpose of this article is to determine the economic impact of visitor spending during the annual Cape Argus Pick ’n Pay Cycle Tour. Direct spending was determined based on a survey consisting of 583 respondents, while the impact of their spending was modelled using the Western Cape Sectoral Accounting Matrix. The results show that the event generates approximately R131 million via visitor spending, and that 1 400 jobs depend on the event. Some of the reasons for the economic success of the event include: the variety of participants that it attracts, the low cost of infrastructure development and the increased length of stay by participants.

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to estimate the potential economic value of the 2010 Soccer World Cup for South Africa. Problem investigated: The Soccer World Cup (SWC) is regarded as the largest sporting event to be hosted and South Africa is investing billions of Rand in the hosting thereof. Based on this the question that comes to mind is, what is the potential economic value of such an event? Previous research attempts to determine the economic value were limited in their focus on what should be included when economic modelling of events is conducted. Most of these studies were done by consultants on behalf of various government departments and consequently, the results of these attempts are criticised for their over-inflating and overestimations by various other researchers. Methodology: The literature review identified many aspects that need to be taken into account when modelling the economic impact of such an event together with aspects identified in the literature review. Lessons from the 2002 Korea/Japan and 2006 Germany Soccer World Cups were used as premise for our estimations. In this article, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling is used to estimate the potential economic value. Findings: The results showed that the 2010 Soccer World Cup would in all probability have positive impacts on the economy of the country in terms of GDP growth and employment, with possible negative effects that include higher inflation and net export losses. Value of research: The value of this research lies in the approach that was followed firstly, by introducing lessons learned from previous World Cups as well as aspects not taken into consideration previously in economic modelling and secondly, by using CGE modelling in determining the economic value. Conclusion: The hosting of the 2010 Soccer World Cup is a major achievement not only for South Africa, but also for the rest of Africa, especially from a marketing point of view. From an economic point of view, this study shows positive results. However, compared to other studies conducted on the 2010 SWC, the findings are more conservative. The latter is supported by the results of a similar study conducted one year after the 2006 Soccer World Cup in Germany supporting the notion that various variables have to be taken into account when economic modelling for hallmark events is done.

In August 2006 the South African government announced quotas on the imports of clothing and textile products from China. Three questions arise. What are these expected benefits? What will be the most likely impact of the import quotas on the South African economy? And what are the policy implications? In this paper we answer these questions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that, contrary to the motivations apparently underlying the quota implementation, the macro-economic, sector and household effects are negative and result in greater inequality between poorer and richer households. We refer to modeling results elsewhere in the literature which report results consistent to ours. The policy implications are that the imposition of these quotas could come to be seen as a policy mistake, and that South Africa may benefit more from considering a free trade agreement with China.