Search

This article presents a series of recommendations for the publication of archaeological data, to improve their usability. These 12 recommendations were formulated by archaeological data experts who mined thousands of publications for different data types (including funerary practices, accelerator mass spectrometry dating, stable isotopes, zooarchaeology, archaeobotany and pathologies) during the initial construction of the Big Interdisciplinary Archaeological Database (BIAD). We also include data harmonisation vocabularies utilised for the integration of data from different recording systems. The case studies we cite to illustrate the recommendations are grounded in examples from the published literature and are presented in a problem/solution format. Though practically oriented towards the facilitation of efficient databasing, these recommendations – which we refer to as the BIAD Standards – are broadly applicable by those who want to extract scientific data from archaeological information, those who work with a specific region or theoretical focus and journal editors and manuscript authors. We anticipate that the use of the BIAD Standards will increase the usability, visibility, interoperability and longevity of published data and also increase the citations of those publications from which data were mined. The Standards will also help frame a unified foundation to support the continued integration of the natural sciences with archaeological research in the future.

Abstract Background To make the best use of health resources, it is crucial to understand the healthcare needs of a population—including how needs will evolve and respond to changing epidemiological context and patient behaviour—and how this compares to the capabilities to deliver healthcare with the existing workforce. Existing approaches to planning either rely on using observed healthcare demand from a fixed historical period or using models to estimate healthcare needs within a narrow domain (e.g., a specific disease area or health programme). A new data-grounded modelling method is proposed by which healthcare needs and the capabilities of the healthcare workforce can be compared and analysed under a range of scenarios: in particular, when there is much greater propensity for healthcare seeking. Methods A model representation of the healthcare workforce, one that formalises how the time of the different cadres is drawn into the provision of units of healthcare, was integrated with an individual-based epidemiological model—the Thanzi La Onse model—that represents mechanistically the development of disease and ill-health and patients’ healthcare seeking behaviour. The model was applied in Malawi using routinely available data and the estimates of the volume of health service delivered were tested against officially recorded data. Model estimates of the “time needed” and “time available” for each cadre were compared under different assumptions for whether vacant (or established) posts are filled and healthcare seeking behaviour. Results The model estimates of volume of each type of service delivered were in good agreement with the available data. The “time needed” for the healthcare workforce greatly exceeded the “time available” (overall by 1.82-fold), especially for pharmacists (6.37-fold) and clinicians (2.83-fold). This discrepancy would be largely mitigated if all vacant posts were filled, but the large discrepancy would remain for pharmacists (2.49-fold). However, if all of those becoming ill did seek care immediately, the “time needed” would increase dramatically and exceed “time supply” (2.11-fold for nurses and midwives, 5.60-fold for clinicians, 9.98-fold for pharmacists) even when there were no vacant positions. Conclusions The results suggest that services are being delivered in less time on average than they should be, or that healthcare workers are working more time than contracted, or a combination of the two. Moreover, the analysis shows that the healthcare system could become overwhelmed if patients were more likely to seek care. It is not yet known what the health consequences of such changes would be but this new model provides—for the first time—a means to examine such questions.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) disease caused by persistent infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a global health problem affecting almost 300 million people worldwide, resulting in up to 1 million deaths each year. The factors contributing to HBV mediated liver disease are yet to be fully resolved, however, multiple studies have suggested that HBV splice variants may be a contributing factor. Recent studies have indicated that novel fusion proteins encoded by splice variants, or the splice-derived RNA itself, may impact replication of wild-type HBV, although the direct mechanisms for these interactions are largely unknown. This review explores the latest knowledge regarding the contribution of splice variants to liver disease and their impact on HBV replication.

The level structure of Er158 has been studied using the Gammasphere spectrometer via the Cd114(Ca48,4n) reaction at 215 MeV with both thin (self-supporting) and thick (backed) targets. The level scheme has been considerably extended with more than 200 new transitions and six new rotational structures, including two strongly coupled high-K bands. Configuration assignments for the new structures are based on their observed alignments, B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of reduced transition probabilities, excitation energies, and comparisons with neighboring nuclei and theoretical calculations. With increasing angular momentum, this nucleus exhibits Coriolis-induced alignments of both neutrons and protons before it then undergoes a rotation-induced transition from near-prolate collective rotation to a noncollective oblate configuration. This transition occurs via the mechanism of band termination around spin 45ħ in three rotational structures. Two distinct lifetime branches, consistent with the crossing of a collective "fast"rotational structure by an energetically favored "slow"terminating sequence, are confirmed for the positive-parity states, and similar behavior is established in the negative-parity states. Weak-intensity, high-energy transitions are observed to feed into the terminating states. At the highest spins, three collective bands with high dynamic moments of inertia and large quadrupole moments were identified. These bands are interpreted as triaxial strongly deformed structures and mark a return to collectivity at ultrahigh spin.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is characterized by extensive cellular and genetic heterogeneity. Its initial presentation as primary disease (pGBM) has been subject to exhaustive molecular and cellular profiling. By contrast, our understanding of how GBM evolves to evade the selective pressure of therapy is starkly limited. The proteomic landscape of recurrent GBM (rGBM), which is refractory to most treatments used for pGBM, are poorly known. We, therefore, quantified the transcriptome and proteome of 134 patient-derived pGBM and rGBM samples, including 40 matched pGBM-rGBM pairs. GBM subtypes transition from pGBM to rGBM towards a preferentially mesenchymal state at recurrence, consistent with the increasingly invasive nature of rGBM. We identified immune regulatory/suppressive genes as important drivers of rGBM and in particular 2-5-oligoadenylate synthase 2 (OAS2) as an essential gene in recurrent disease. Our data identify a new class of therapeutic targets that emerge from the adaptive response of pGBM to therapy, emerging specifically in recurrent disease and may provide new therapeutic opportunities absent at pGBM diagnosis.

Background Persistent sensorimotor impairments after stroke can negatively impact quality of life. The hippocampus is vulnerable to poststroke secondary degeneration and is involved in sensorimotor behavior but has not been widely studied within the context of poststroke upper-limb sensorimotor impairment. We investigated associations between non-lesioned hippocampal volume and upper limb sensorimotor impairment in people with chronic stroke, hypothesizing that smaller ipsilesional hippocampal volumes would be associated with greater sensorimotor impairment. Methods and Results Cross-sectional T1-weighted magnetic resonance images of the brain were pooled from 357 participants with chronic stroke from 18 research cohorts of the ENIGMA (Enhancing NeuoImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis) Stroke Recovery Working Group. Sensorimotor impairment was estimated from the FMA-UE (Fugl-Meyer Assessment of Upper Extremity). Robust mixed-effects linear models were used to test associations between poststroke sensorimotor impairment and hippocampal volumes (ipsilesional and contralesional separately; Bonferroni-corrected, P

BackgroundApproaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective.MethodsWe applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP.FindingsIn the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished.InterpretationUnder the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation.FundingUS Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Accurate lesion segmentation is critical in stroke rehabilitation research for the quantification of lesion burden and accurate image processing. Current automated lesion segmentation methods for T1-weighted (T1w) MRIs, commonly used in stroke research, lack accuracy and reliability. Manual segmentation remains the gold standard, but it is time-consuming, subjective, and requires neuroanatomical expertise. We previously released an open-source dataset of stroke T1w MRIs and manually-segmented lesion masks (ATLAS v1.2, N = 304) to encourage the development of better algorithms. However, many methods developed with ATLAS v1.2 report low accuracy, are not publicly accessible or are improperly validated, limiting their utility to the field. Here we present ATLAS v2.0 (N = 1271), a larger dataset of T1w MRIs and manually segmented lesion masks that includes training (n = 655), test (hidden masks, n = 300), and generalizability (hidden MRIs and masks, n = 316) datasets. Algorithm development using this larger sample should lead to more robust solutions; the hidden datasets allow for unbiased performance evaluation via segmentation challenges. We anticipate that ATLAS v2.0 will lead to improved algorithms, facilitating large-scale stroke research.

Up to two-thirds of stroke survivors experience persistent sensorimotor impairments. Recovery relies on the integrity of spared brain areas to compensate for damaged tissue. Deep grey matter structures play a critical role in the control and regulation of sensorimotor circuits. The goal of this work is to identify associations between volumes of spared subcortical nuclei and sensorimotor behaviour at different timepoints after stroke. We pooled high-resolution T1-weighted MRI brain scans and behavioural data in 828 individuals with unilateral stroke from 28 cohorts worldwide. Cross-sectional analyses using linear mixed-effects models related post-stroke sensorimotor behaviour to non-lesioned subcortical volumes (Bonferroni-corrected, P

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care.MethodsWe extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi. Two datasets were prepared: unadjusted and adjusted; for the latter, unreported monthly data entries for a facility were filled in through systematic rules based on reported mean values of that facility or facility type and considering both reporting rates and comparability with published data. Using statistical descriptive methods, we first described the patterns of service utilisation in pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). We then tested for evidence of departures from this routine pattern, i.e., service volume delivered being below recent average by more than two standard deviations was viewed as a substantial reduction, and calculated the cumulative net differences of service volume during the pandemic period (2020-2021), in aggregate and within each specific facility.ResultsEvidence of disruptions were found: from April 2020 to December 2021, services delivered of several types were reduced across primary and secondary levels of care-including inpatient care (-20.03% less total interactions in that period compared to the recent average), immunisation (-17.61%), malnutrition treatment (-34.5%), accidents and emergency services (-16.03%), HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses) tests (-27.34%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations for adults (-33.52%), and ART treatment for paediatrics (-41.32%). Reductions of service volume were greatest in the first wave of the pandemic during April-August 2020, and whereas some service types rebounded quickly (e.g., outpatient visits from -17.7% to +3.23%), many others persisted at lower level through 2021 (e.g., under-five malnutrition treatment from -15.24% to -42.23%). The total reduced service volume between April 2020 and December 2021 was 8 066 956 (-10.23%), equating to 444 units per 1000 persons.ConclusionWe have found substantial evidence for reductions in health service delivered in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic which may have potential health consequences, the effect of which should inform how decisions are taken in the future to maximise the resilience of healthcare system during similar events.

Abstract Objective The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. Methods This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. Results Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. Conclusion The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.

In this study, we examined associations between university lecturers' perceived autonomy support (PAS), adaptability, organisational commitment, and psychological wellbeing. A sample of university lecturers (N = 102) from a single ex-polytechnic higher education institution in the United Kingdom completed validated scales for each construct in the spring term. Inspired by prior work in pre-tertiary education with schoolteachers, a conceptual model of predicted relations was developed and tested using structural equation modelling (SEM). Findings showed that PAS was positively associated with lecturers' adaptability, organisational commitment, and psychological wellbeing; however, adaptability was unable to influence these outcomes independently of its association with PAS. The findings extend prior work with schoolteachers suggesting that, while adaptability is of importance, its influence may be more salient at pre-tertiary level -- where there is typically heightened regulation and lower autonomy -- and less salient when autonomy options are wider, as is the case in higher education.

Return on investment (ROI) analysis is increasingly being used for evaluating the value for money of public health interventions. Given its potential role for informing health policies, it is important that there is a more comprehensive understanding of ROI analysis within the global health field. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a scoping review of recent research articles reporting an ROI metric for a health intervention within the public sector in any country setting. The database search was limited to literature published in English and studies published between 1 January 2018 and 14 June 2021. Uses and settings where the ROI metric is being applied, key methodological features of the calculations and the types of economic benefits included were extracted. 118 relevant studies were included within this scoping review. We found that ROI analyses of health interventions differed between those that only included fiscal savings (such as prevented medical expenses) and those which incorporated a wider range of benefits (such as monetised health benefits). This highlights the variation in the definition of ROI analyses and supports the finding that ROI analyses are used for a range of different research questions/purposes within the healthcare sector. We also found that the methodologies used in ROI calculations were inconsistent and often poorly reported. This review demonstrates that there is notable variation in the methodology surrounding recent ROI calculations of healthcare interventions, as well as the definition of ROI analysis. We recommend that ROI metrics should be carefully interpreted before they are used to inform policy decisions regarding the allocation of healthcare resources. To improve the consistency of future studies, we also set out recommended use cases for ROI analysis and a reporting checklist.

The authors study an interesting phenomena of shape coexistence in 186Pb. In an elegant and well-documented experiment, they confirm the coexistence of the three 0+ states in the 186Pb nucleus and reassign the shapes associated with the excited 0+ states.

Background Both stroke and psychosis are independently associated with high levels of disability. However, psychosis in the context of stroke has been under-researched. To date, there are no general population studies on their joint prevalence and association. Aims To estimate the joint prevalence of stroke and psychosis and their statistical association using nationally representative psychiatric epidemiology studies from two high-income countries (the UK and the USA) and two middle-income countries (Chile and Colombia) and, subsequently, in a combined-countries data-set. Method Prevalences were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical associations between stroke and psychosis and between stroke and psychotic symptoms were tested using regression models. Overall estimates were calculated using an individual participant level meta-analysis on the combined-countries data-set. The analysis is available online as a computational notebook. Results The overall prevalence of probable psychosis in stroke was 3.81% (95% CI 2.34–5.82) and that of stroke in probable psychosis was 3.15% (95% CI 1.94–4.83). The odds ratio of the adjusted association between stroke and probable psychosis was 3.32 (95% CI 2.05–5.38). On the individual symptom level, paranoia, hallucinated voices and thought passivity delusion were associated with stroke in the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Conclusions Rates of association between psychosis and stroke suggest there is likely to be a high clinical need group who are under-researched and may be poorly served by existing services.

BackgroundThe integrase inhibitor dolutegravir could have a major role in future antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in sub-Saharan Africa because of its high potency and barrier to resistance, good tolerability, and low cost, but there is uncertainty over appropriate policies for use relating to the potential for drug resistance spread and a possible increased risk of neural tube defects in infants if used in women at the time of conception. We used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART with the aim of informing policy makers on approaches to the use of dolutegravir that are likely to lead to the highest population health gains.MethodsWe used an existing individual-based model of HIV transmission and progression in adults, which takes into account the effects of drug resistance and differential drug potency in determining viral suppression and clinical outcomes to compare predicted outcomes of alternative ART regimen policies. We calculated disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each policy, assuming that a woman having a child with a neural tube defect incurs an extra DALY per year for the remainder of the time horizon and accounting for mother-to-child transmission. We used a 20 year time horizon, a 3% discount rate, and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted.FindingsThe greatest number of DALYs is predicted to be averted with use of a policy in which tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir is used in all people on ART, including switching to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir in those currently on ART, regardless of current viral load suppression and intention to have (more) children. This result was consistent in several sensitivity analyses. We predict that this policy would be cost-saving.InterpretationUsing a standard DALY framework to compare health outcomes from a public health perspective, the benefits of transition to tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for all substantially outweighed the risks.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Abstract Background Road traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear. Methods We use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents. Results Our model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22–58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model. Conclusions Road traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

Measurement(s) stroke lesion Technology Type(s) manual segmentation in ITK-SNAP Sample Characteristic - Organism Homo sapiens Sample Characteristic - Environment brain

Abstract Background Female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected by HIV and are critical to engage in HIV prevention, testing and care services. We describe the design of our evaluation of the ‘AMETHIST’ intervention, nested within a nationally-scaled programme for FSW in Zimbabwe. We hypothesise that the implementation of this intervention will result in a reduction in the risk of HIV transmission within sex work. Methods The AMETHIST intervention (Adapted Microplanning to Eliminate Transmission of HIV in Sex Transactions) is a risk-differentiated intervention for FSW, centred around the implementation of microplanning and self-help groups. It is designed to support uptake of, and adherence to, HIV prevention, testing and treatment behaviours among FSW. Twenty-two towns in Zimbabwe were randomised to receive either the Sisters programme (usual care) or the Sisters programme plus AMETHIST. The composite primary outcome is defined as the proportion of all FSW who are at risk of either HIV acquisition (HIV-negative and not fully protected by prevention interventions) or of HIV transmission (HIV-positive, not virally suppressed and not practicing consistent condom use). The outcome will be assessed after 2 years of intervention delivery in a respondent-driven sampling survey (total n = 4400; n = 200 FSW recruited at each site). Primary analysis will use the ‘RDS-II’ method to estimate cluster summaries and will adapt Hayes and Moulton’s ‘2-step’ method produce adjusted effect estimates. An in-depth process evaluation guided by our project trajectory will be undertaken. Discussion Innovative pragmatic trials are needed to generate evidence on effectiveness of combination interventions in HIV prevention and treatment in different contexts. We describe the design and analysis of such a study. Trial registration Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202007818077777 . Registered on 2 July 2020.

Community-based delivery and monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV has the potential to increase viral suppression for individual- and population-level health benefits. However, the cost-effectiveness and budget impact are needed for public health policy. We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate population prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2060 for two scenarios: 1) standard clinic-based HIV care and 2) five-yearly home testing campaigns with community ART for people not reached by clinic-based care. We parameterised model scenarios using observed community-based ART efficacy. Using a health system perspective, we evaluated incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits using a threshold of $750/DALY averted. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied the discount rate; time horizon; costs for clinic and community ART, hospitalisation, and testing; and the proportion of the population receiving community ART. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were estimated across 25 best-fitting parameter sets. By 2060, community ART following home testing averted 27.9% (UR: 24.3-31.5) of incident HIV infections, 27.8% (26.8-28.8) of HIV-related deaths, and 18.7% (17.9-19.7) of DALYs compared to standard of care. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years experienced the greatest reduction in incident HIV (30.7%, 27.1-34.7). In the first five years (2020-2024), community ART required an additional $44.9 million (35.8-50.1) annually, representing 14.3% (11.4-16.0) of the annual HIV budget. The cost per DALY averted was $102 (85-117) for community ART compared with standard of care. Providing six-monthly refills instead of quarterly refills further increased cost-effectiveness to $78.5 per DALY averted (62.9-92.8). Cost-effectiveness was robust to sensitivity analyses. In a high-prevalence setting, scale-up of decentralised ART dispensing and monitoring can provide large population health benefits and is cost-effective in preventing death and disability due to HIV.

Summary: Background: HIV can infect multiple cells in the liver including hepatocytes, Kupffer cells and infiltrating T cells, but whether HIV can persist in the liver in people with HIV (PWH) on suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains unknown. Methods: In a prospective longitudinal cohort of PWH and hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection living in Bangkok, Thailand, we collected blood and liver biopsies from 18 participants prior to and following ART and quantified HIV and HBV persistence using quantitative (q)PCR and RNA/DNAscope. Antiretroviral (ARV) drug levels were quantified using mass spectroscopy. Findings: In liver biopsies taken prior to ART, HIV DNA and HIV RNA were detected by qPCR in 53% (9/17) and 47% (8/17) of participants respectively. Following a median ART duration of 3.4 years, HIV DNA was detected in liver in 61% (11/18) of participants by either qPCR, DNAscope or both, but only at very low and non-quantifiable levels. Using immunohistochemistry, HIV DNA was observed in both hepatocytes and liver infiltrating CD4+ T cells on ART. HIV RNA was not detected in liver biopsies collected on ART, by either qPCR or RNAscope. All ARVs were clearly detected in liver tissue. Interpretation: Persistence of HIV DNA in liver in PWH on ART represents an additional reservoir that warrants further investigation. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (Project Grant APP1101836, 1149990, and 1135851); This project has been funded in part with federal funds from the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, under Contract No. 75N91019D00024.

BackgroundThere is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high.MethodsThe HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year.FindingsA transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost.InterpretationA future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization.

The emergence of acquired resistance to standard platinum-etoposide chemotherapy in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is a common event. Here, the authors using paired pre-treatment and post-chemotherapy circulating tumour cell patient-derived explant (CDX) models reveal a mechanism of drug resistance in SCLC mediated by Notch and nitric oxide activation of soluble guanylate cyclase signalling.

Abstract Introduction Over 300 million people in the world live with asthma, resulting in 500,000 annual global deaths with future increases expected. It is estimated that around 50–80% of asthma exacerbations are due to viral infections. Currently, a combination of long-acting beta agonists (LABA) for bronchodilation and glucocorticoids (GCS) to control lung inflammation represent the dominant strategy for the management of asthma, however, it is still sub-optimal in 35–50% of moderate-severe asthmatics resulting in persistent lung inflammation, impairment of lung function, and risk of mortality. Mechanistically, LABA/GCS combination therapy results in synergistic efficacy mediated by intracellular cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). Hypothesis Increasing intracellular cAMP during LABA/GCS combination therapy via inhibiting phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) and/or blocking the export of cAMP by ATP Binding Cassette Transporter C4 (ABCC4), will potentiate anti-inflammatory responses of mainstay LABA/GCS therapy. Methods Expression and localization experiments were performed using in situ hybridization and immunohistochemistry in human lung tissue from healthy subjects, while confirmatory transcript and protein expression analyses were performed in primary human airway epithelial cells and cell lines. Intervention experiments were performed on the human airway epithelial cell line, HBEC-6KT, by pre-treatment with combinations of LABA/GCS with PDE4 and/or ABCC4 inhibitors followed by Poly I:C or imiquimod challenge as a model for viral stimuli. Cytokine readouts for IL-6, IL-8, CXCL10/IP-10, and CCL5/RANTES were quantified by ELISA. Results Using archived human lung and human airway epithelial cells, ABCC4 gene and protein expression were confirmed in vitro and in situ. LABA/GCS attenuation of Poly I:C or imiquimod-induced IL-6 and IL-8 were potentiated with ABCC4 and PDE4 inhibition, which was greater when ABCC4 and PDE4 inhibition was combined. Modulation of cAMP levels had no impact on LABA/GCS modulation of Poly I:C-induced CXCL10/IP-10 or CCL5/RANTES. Conclusion Modulation of intracellular cAMP levels by PDE4 or ABCC4 inhibition potentiates LABA/GCS efficacy in human airway epithelial cells challenged with viral stimuli. The data suggest further exploration of the value of adding cAMP modulators to mainstay LABA/GCS therapy in asthma for potentiated anti-inflammatory efficacy.

Health technology assessment (HTA) offers a set of analytical tools to support health systems' decisions about resource allocation. Although there is increasing interest in these tools across the world, including in some middle-income countries, they remain rarely used in low-income countries (LICs). In general, the focus of HTA is narrow, mostly limited to assessments of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. However, the principles of HTA can be used to support a broader series of decisions regarding new health technologies. We examine the potential for this broad use of HTA in LICs, with a focus on Malawi. We develop a framework to classify the main decisions on health technologies within health systems. The framework covers decisions on identifying and prioritizing technologies for detailed assessment, deciding whether to adopt an intervention, assessing alternative investments for implementation and scale-up, and undertaking further research activities. We consider the relevance of the framework to policymakers in Malawi and we use two health technologies as examples to investigate the main barriers and enablers to the use of HTA methods. Although the scarcity of local data, expertise, and other resources could risk limiting the operationalisation of HTA in LICs, we argue that even in highly resource constrained health systems, such as in Malawi, the use of HTA to support a broad range of decisions is feasible and desirable.

Abstract A major unmet clinical need is a therapeutic capable of removing hepatitis B virus (HBV) genome from the liver of infected individuals to reduce their risk of developing liver cancer. A strategy to deliver such a therapy could utilize the ability to target and promote apoptosis of infected hepatocytes. Presently there is no clinically relevant strategy that has been shown to effectively remove persistent episomal covalently closed circular HBV DNA (cccDNA) from the nucleus of hepatocytes. We used linearized single genome length HBV DNA of various genotypes to establish a cccDNA-like reservoir in immunocompetent mice and showed that clinical-stage orally administered drugs that antagonize the function of cellular inhibitor of apoptosis proteins can eliminate HBV replication and episomal HBV genome in the liver. Primary human liver organoid models were used to confirm the clinical relevance of these results. This study underscores a clinically tenable strategy for the potential elimination of chronic HBV reservoirs in patients.

Background: In breast cancer management, age-related practice variation is widespread, with older women having lower rates of surgery and chemotherapy than younger women, based on the premise of reduced treatment tolerance and benefit. This may contribute to inferior outcomes. There are currently no age- and fitness-stratified guidelines on which to base treatment recommendations. Aim: We aimed to optimise treatment choice and outcomes for older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with operable breast cancer. Objectives: Our objectives were to (1) determine the age, comorbidity, frailty, disease stage and biology thresholds for endocrine therapy alone versus surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, or adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy, for older women with breast cancer; (2) optimise survival outcomes for older women by improving the quality of treatment decision-making; (3) develop and evaluate a decision support intervention to enhance shared decision-making; and (4) determine the degree and causes of treatment variation between UK breast units. Design: A prospective cohort study was used to determine age and fitness thresholds for treatment allocation. Mixed-methods research was used to determine the information needs of older women to develop a decision support intervention. A cluster-randomised trial was used to evaluate the impact of this decision support intervention on treatment choices and outcomes. Health economic analysis was used to evaluate the cost–benefit ratio of different treatment strategies according to age and fitness criteria. A mixed-methods study was used to determine the degree and causes of variation in treatment allocation. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures were enhanced age- and fitness-specific decision support leading to improved quality-of-life outcomes in older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with early breast cancer. Results: (1) Cohort study: the study recruited 3416 UK women aged ≥ 70 years (median age 77 years). Follow-up was 52 months. (a) The surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy versus endocrine therapy alone comparison: 2854 out of 3416 (88%) women had oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, 2354 of whom received surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy and 500 received endocrine therapy alone. Patients treated with endocrine therapy alone were older and frailer than patients treated with surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy. Unmatched overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival were higher in the surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy group (overall survival: hazard ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.33; p 25]. In this high-risk population, there were no differences according to adjuvant chemotherapy use in overall survival or breast-cancer-specific survival after propensity matching. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a lower risk of metastatic recurrence than no chemotherapy in the unmatched (adjusted hazard ratio 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.68; p = 0.002) and propensity-matched patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.92; p = 0.03). Adjuvant chemotherapy improved the overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival of patients with oestrogen-receptor-negative disease. (2) Mixed-methods research to develop a decision support intervention: an iterative process was used to develop two decision support interventions (each comprising a brief decision aid, a booklet and an online tool) specifically for older women facing treatment choices (endocrine therapy alone or surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy or no chemotherapy) using several evidence sources (expert opinion, literature and patient interviews). The online tool was based on models developed using registry data from 23,842 patients and validated on an external data set of 14,526 patients. Mortality rates at 2 and 5 years differed by 90 years, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy was no longer cost-effective and generated fewer quality-adjusted life-years than endocrine therapy alone. The incremental benefit of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy reduced with age and comorbidities. (5) Variation in practice: analysis of rates of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy or endocrine therapy alone between the 56 breast units in the cohort study demonstrated significant variation in rates of endocrine therapy alone that persisted after adjustment for age, fitness and stage. Clinician preference was an important determinant of treatment choice. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that, for older women with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, there is a cohort of women with a life expectancy of

BackgroundA pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine.Methodology/principal findingsWe project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, including delivery costs), given the current estimates of incidence and population at risk, is higher than $5 for 25-30% of the countries considered, with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, being $5.7-6 [$0.3 - $34.5], and total demand of over 560 million courses.Conclusion/significanceOur results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay could make a vaccine for leishmaniasis commercially attractive to potential manufacturers. The methodology used can be equally applied to other technology developments targeting health in developing countries.

The ability to treat severe viral infections is limited by our understanding of the mechanisms behind virus-induced immunopathology. While the role of type I interferons (IFNs) in early control of viral replication is clear, less is known about how IFNs can regulate the development of immunopathology and affect disease outcomes. Here, we report that absence of type I IFN receptor (IFNAR) is associated with extensive immunopathology following mucosal viral infection. This pathology occurred independent of viral load or type II immunity but required the presence of macrophages and IL-6. The depletion of macrophages and inhibition of IL-6 signaling significantly abrogated immunopathology. Tissue destruction was mediated by macrophage-derived matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), as MMP inhibition by doxycycline and Ro 28-2653 reduced the severity of tissue pathology. Analysis of post-mortem COVID-19 patient lungs also displayed significant upregulation of the expression of MMPs and accumulation of macrophages. Overall, we demonstrate that IFNs inhibit macrophage-mediated MMP production to prevent virus-induced immunopathology and uncover MMPs as a therapeutic target towards viral infections.

Background Persistent sensorimotor impairments after stroke can negatively impact quality of life. The hippocampus is vulnerable to poststroke secondary degeneration and is involved in sensorimotor behavior but has not been widely studied within the context of poststroke upper‐limb sensorimotor impairment. We investigated associations between non‐lesioned hippocampal volume and upper limb sensorimotor impairment in people with chronic stroke, hypothesizing that smaller ipsilesional hippocampal volumes would be associated with greater sensorimotor impairment. Methods and Results Cross‐sectional T1‐weighted magnetic resonance images of the brain were pooled from 357 participants with chronic stroke from 18 research cohorts of the ENIGMA (Enhancing NeuoImaging Genetics through Meta‐Analysis) Stroke Recovery Working Group. Sensorimotor impairment was estimated from the FMA‐UE (Fugl‐Meyer Assessment of Upper Extremity). Robust mixed‐effects linear models were used to test associations between poststroke sensorimotor impairment and hippocampal volumes (ipsilesional and contralesional separately; Bonferroni‐corrected, P

Abnormal contralesional M1 activity is consistently reported in patients with compromised upper limb and hand function after stroke. The underlying mechanisms and functional implications of this activity are not clear, which hampers the development of treatment strategies targeting this brain area. The goal of the present study was to determine the extent to which contralesional M1 activity can be explained by the demand of a motor task, given recent evidence for increasing ipsilateral M1 activity with increasing demand in healthy age-matched controls. We hypothesized that higher activity in contralesional M1 is related to greater demand on precision in a hand motor task. fMRI data were collected from 19 patients with ischemic stroke affecting hand function in the subacute recovery phase and 31 healthy, right-handed, age-matched controls. The hand motor task was designed to parametrically modulate the demand on movement precision. Electromyography data confirmed strictly unilateral task performance by all participants. Patients showed significant impairment relative to controls in their ability to perform the task in the fMRI scanner. However, patients and controls responded similarly to an increase in demand for precision, with better performance for larger targets and poorer performance for smaller targets. Patients did not show evidence of elevated ipsilesional or contralesional M1 blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) activation relative to healthy controls and mean BOLD activation levels were not elevated for patients with poorer performance relative to patients with better task performance. While both patients and healthy controls showed demand-dependent increases in BOLD activation in both ipsilesional/contralateral and contralesional/ipsilateral hemispheres, patients with stroke were less likely to show evidence of a linear relationship between the demand on precision and BOLD activation in contralesional M1 than healthy controls. Taken together, the findings suggest that task demand affects the BOLD response in contralesional M1 in patients with stroke, though perhaps less strongly than in healthy controls. This has implications for the interpretation of reported abnormal bilateral M1 activation in patients with stroke because in addition to contralesional M1 reorganization processes it could be partially related to a response to the relatively higher demand of a motor task when completed by patients rather than by healthy controls.

In the past, states have underestimated the effort required to implement WMD-related treaties. Yet effective national implementation is a prerequisite to upholding agreements and building confidence in compliance with these treaty regimes. Drawing on experience from other arms control and disarmament agreements, this article lays out the most relevant measures for national implementation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) resulting from Article 5 (national implementation). It also examines other obligations in the TPNW through the lens of national implementation, including initial declarations Articles 2 (declarations), 6 (victim assistance and environmental remediation) and 7 (international cooperation and assistance). The paper focuses on what key elements that TPNW States Parties should address when transposing the international agreement to the national level: standardization; capacity and resources; and international assistance. In doing so, it aims to assist national and international actors in their implementation efforts.

BackgroundIt is unknown what properties would be required to make an intervention in low income countries that can eradicate or control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost-effective.MethodsWe used a model of HIV and ART to investigate the effect of introducing an ART-free viral suppression intervention in 2022 using Zimbabwe as an example country. We assumed that the intervention (cost: $500) would be accessible for 90% of the population, be given to those receiving effective ART, have sufficient efficacy to allow ART interruption in 95%, with a rate of viral rebound of 5% per year in the first 3 months, and a 50% decline in rate with each successive year.ResultsAn ART-free viral suppression intervention with these properties would result in >0.53 million disability-adjusted-life-years averted over 2022-2042, with a reduction in HIV program costs of $300 million (8.7% saving). An intervention of this efficacy costing anything up to $1400 is likely to be cost-effective in this setting.ConclusionsInterventions aimed at curing HIV infection have the potential to improve overall disease burden and to reduce costs. Given the effectiveness and cost of ART, such interventions would have to be inexpensive and highly effective.

Abstract Unfair differences in healthcare access, utilisation, quality or health outcomes exist between and within countries around the world. Improving health equity is a stated objective for many governments and international organizations. We provide an overview of the major tools that have been developed to measure, evaluate and promote health equity, along with the data required to operationalise them. Methods are organised into four key policy questions facing decision-makers: (i) what is the current level of inequity in health; (ii) does government health expenditure benefit the worst-off; (iii) can government health expenditure more effectively promote equity; and (iv) which interventions provide the best value for money in reducing inequity. Benefit incidence analysis can be used to estimate the distribution of current public health sector expenditure, with geographical resource allocation formulae and health system reform being the main government policy levers for improving equity. Techniques from the economic evaluation literature, such as extended and distributional cost-effectiveness analysis can be used to identify ‘best buy’ interventions from a health equity perspective. A range of inequality metrics, from gap measures and slope indices to concentration indices and regression analysis, can be applied to these approaches to evaluate changes in equity. Methods from the economics literature can provide policymakers with a toolkit for addressing multiple aspects of health equity, from outcomes to financial protection, and can be adapted to accommodate data commonly available in low- and middle-income settings.