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Residual income model in equity valuation has emerged as a useful reference for investment decisions on account of its theoretical foundations for analytical accounting research and also the basis of modelling for empirical study on value relevance. However, since investors have disagreement on firm's future earnings, it may have an effect on firm's evaluation and hence affect stock price. The paper extends the residual income model by incorporating investors' heterogeneous beliefs on the persistence of residual income, and then tests the theoretical findings through numerical simulation. The model implies that the relation between stock price and heterogeneous beliefs depends on the sign of residual income, and the impact of informed traders on stock price relies on the interaction effect of heterogeneous beliefs and residual income. The numerical simulation results prove that under the circumstance of positive heterogeneous beliefs, if residual income is also positive, stock price has a positive relation with heterogeneous beliefs and amount of informed investor; while if residual income is negative, stock price has a negative relation with heterogeneous beliefs and informed trading. The findings of the paper provide some useful theoretical implications on the effect of heterogeneous beliefs on equity valuation via residual income framework. Research limitations mainly exist in the strict theoretical assumptions, which can be loosen in further researches to make the model closer to real market.

This study, proposes an altenative technique for estimating the cost of capital. Specifically, it use discounted residualincome model. The examine firms characteristic that are systemati- cally related to this estimate of cost of capital, it show that a firm's cost of capital isa function of its long term Debt to Book Ratio (Ln D/B), Long Fim Size (Ln Size), Eaming Variability (Ln Ev) and Long Debt to Market Ratio (Ln D/M). These variables explain around 63% of the coss secional variaton in future implied costof capital. The findings suggest that they can be exploited to estimate future cost of capital in Indonesia.

We investigate the existence of evidence of investor sentiment on share price deviations from their intrinsic values across two sentiment regimes of shares market: the low-to-normal and the excess one. We use the residual income valuation model to calculate the intrinsic values of shares based on accounting fundamentals and we suggest a panel data threshold model to capture the sentiment regimes of the market, using as threshold variable alternative investor sentiment indices. The suggested model enables us, first, to endogenously identify from the data the threshold value of a sentiment index triggering market sentiment regime shifts and, based on it, to examine if the effects of investor sentiment on share prices across the above two sentiment regimes are in accordance to the theory. Application of the model to UK data shows that investor sentiment influences positively share prices in the low-to-normal and negatively in the excess one. We also show that investor sentiment dominates risk premium effects on shares characterized by low book-to-market, and dividend- and earnings-to-price ratios. The above results are consistent with the predictions of the sentiment hypothesis.

PurposeThis study will examine the impact of cash dividends on the market value of banks listed in Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging countries during the period 2000–2015.Design/methodology/approachThe current study adopts residual income approach based on Ohlson's (1995) valuation model. By testing different statistical techniques, fixed effect is applied on panel data for (144) banks listed on 11 MENA stock markets over the period 2000–2015. Furthermore, additional tests are applied to confirm the primary results.FindingsThe analysis reveals that current dividend payouts and dividend yield do not provide information relevant to the establishment of market values in MENA emerging markets; thus, they have no material impact on MENA banks' market values. This lack of current dividend payment effect is consistent with Miller and Modigliani (1961) dividend irrelevance assumption: there is no evidence of either an informational or real cash inflow effect of current dividend payments. The findings of this study can be attributed to the fact that MENA banks may be forced to place more emphasis on allocating money for investment instead of paying dividends given them they are subject to liquidity requirements for investment, expansion, general operations and compliance with regulations. Only after all these financial needs are covered can the remaining surplus be distributed as cash dividends. Therefore, cash dividends represent earnings residual rather than an active decision variable that impacts a firm's market value. This is consistent with the residual dividend hypothesis, which is the crux of Miller and Modigliani (1996) irrelevance theory of dividends.Research limitations/implicationsThe current study is restricted to a sample of one type of financial firms, banks, because of the problem of missing data and limited information related to other financial firms for the same period. Therefore, further research could be additional types of financial firms such as insurance firms that play a vital role in MENA emerging economies.Practical implicationsThe results of this study have some important implications for banks' dividend policymakers. Dividend policymakers in MENA emerging markets seem to follow residual dividend policy, in which they distribute dividends according to what is left over after all acceptable investment opportunities have been undertaken. This makes for inconsistent and unstable dividend policy trends, making it difficult for investors to predict future dividend decisions. Further, this practice may deliver information to shareholders about a lack of positive future investment opportunities, and this may negatively affect the share value of banks.Originality/valueThis study is the first of its kind – up to the author's knowledge – that examines a large cross-country sample of MENA banks (144) to cover a long time period in the recent past, and, more importantly, after the banking sector in the region has experienced major transformations during last two decades. In addition, most of the MENA region countries included in this study, namely, banks, operate in tax-free environments (there are neither taxes on dividends nor on capital gains). This feature adds complexity to the ongoing dividend debate.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relevance of two groups of valuations models as follows: the accounting models based on the residual income (RIM) and the standard market model, on equity price, return and volatility relevance. Design/methodology/approach The models are tested on companies traded on Palestine exchange from 2009 to 2018, using panel regression analysis. Two-price and two-return models derived from RIM to compare with the market model and four volatility models. Findings The standard RIM outperformed other models in equity price modeling. The dividend discount model (DDM) outperformed the rest of the models in terms of return estimation. However, the authors find that the market model can explain equity variance better than RIM and DDM models. Practical implications For investors, market beta does not necessarily capture all relevant factors of value and traditional financial statements are still important in providing relevant information and different models are used for different values perspectives (price, return and volatility). Originality/value Previous studies focus on comparing the price and return relevance of accounting-based models (RIM and cash flow models). Three aspects differentiate this paper and contribute to its originality, namely, the uniqueness of the context, incorporating the market model into the picture along with the accounting-based models and adding Volatility dimensions of relevance.

We examine the impact of the U.K. Bribery Act 2010 on the implied cost of equity. We find a significant reduction in the cost of equity amongst U.K. firms with high bribery exposure after the passage of the Bribery Act. We further show that the Bribery Act improves internal control system and increase stock liquidity of firms with high bribery exposure. Our results suggest that more stringent anti-bribery regulations are not always bad for the firm.

Residual income valuation was already known and used in valuation theory and practice previously, however, the method has been subject to increasing attention in the past decades. By comparing the discounted cash flow method and the residual income model, this paper seeks to answer the question of what practical implications the difference in theory results in. the discounted cash flow method continues to be widely popular in literature and international practice, however, it may give rise to flawed results in certain cases. with the help of specific business examples, the study highlights that in such cases, the risks of under or overestimation can be mitigated with the help of the rim model. the largest benefit of the residual income model compared to the dcf method is that instead of deriving the value solely from the future, it gives a central role to the already known book value, and the speculative value – determined based on the accounting income – plays a less significant role in the course of valuation.

Financial models are widely used in a variety of business applications from financial reporting to capital budgeting to valuing and structuring mergers and acquisitions. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the basics of applying financial modeling methods to firm valuation and to assist the reader in understanding the power (and limitations) of models in analyzing real-world situations. The model discussed in this chapter is relatively simple consisting of four Microsoft Excel worksheets and is applied to the valuation of a single firm.

In many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.

The present paper tests whether the intrinsic value of firm, estimated with the residual income model (RIM), and the resulting value-to-price (V/P) ratio can explain the cross section of stocks returns. The study enhances the literature in the area of asset pricing by the introduction of a new intrinsic value risk factor in such a manner as to obtain a monotonic relation between risk and expected returns. Furthermore, we incorporate in the RIM, for the first time, a time series model that does not rely on analysts’ forecasts for the estimation of the key parameters of the model. A unique dataset from Germany is utilized, from 31/12/1989 to 30/6/2016, contributing by this way to the necessary accumulation of non-US research. The results show the existence for longer time periods of a V/P ratio effect that is persistent and cannot be explained by either the systematic risk, the size or the BE/ME ratio of the sample firms. The results of the regressions models indicated that the intrinsic value risk factor is positively related to stock returns and that it increases the explanatory power of the asset pricing models whenever it is explicitly included in them.

We assess the empirical implications of the valuation model for equity prices developed in Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11(2):661–687, 1995), by accounting for residual income information dynamics. A key assumption of the Ohlson (1995) residual income model stipulates that next period $$t+1$$ residual income is a linear function of current period t residual income and a latent variable referred to as ‘other information’. This ‘other information’, assumed known in the current period t, contains information on next period $$t+1$$ abnormal earnings not reflected in current period t abnormal earnings. Previous literature has proxied this ‘other information’ variable with consensus analysts’ forecasts of earnings. In this study, we propose to estimate this latent ‘other information’ variable using a state space framework. Our method obviates the need for analysts’ earnings forecasts. We estimate the valuation model, within the embedded state space framework, using the Kalman filter recursive procedure. We estimate the model across a sample of stocks in the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 indices. We compare the model performance to a benchmark two-step regression approach used in previous work. Performance yardsticks indicate that our state space estimation approach shows promise in valuing stocks and predicting next period $$t+1$$ residual income relative to the benchmark approach.

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

The purpose of this research is an attempt to present a mixed model based on the residual income valuation model, where two new factors, business cycles and financial items, are added. We offer a practical investment opinion by which investors and fundamental analysts can either establish or adjust their portfolios if there is an effort made to reverse the present economic atmosphere due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the items in financial reports don’t have the same impacts for different business cycles. However, tax has a significantly positive sign when economies are expanding or contracting.

We implement the most common empirical specifications, with different approaches to control for scale problems, used in studies on the value relevance of accounting information. We study whether the results offered by these specifications are consistent with the residual income valuation model and with the Burgstahler and Dichev option-style valuation framework. Undeflated and per-share specifications offer results that are more in line with both benchmarks. Other deflated specifications and approaches deviate, to different extents, from the expectations of both frameworks. We interpret these deviations as signs of misspecification. We thank the financial support of the Nuffield Foundation, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (ECO2013-48328; ECO2016-77579; ECO2016-79693) and the Ramón Areces Foundation.

The paper discusses two issues related to “growth”. Both have arguably not been dealt with adequately in the literature. The first concerns growth and accruals. Research practice combines two components of accruals, asset accruals and liability accruals. This simplification causes problems because income-increasing asset accruals correlate positively with growth whereas the opposite holds for income-increasing liability accruals and growth. In light of this reality, the paper re-configures Jones’s model. The second issue addresses forward P/E multiples dependence on future growth in expected eps. It is shown that the textbook Gordon-Williams 1/(r-g) approach makes no sense – even as a crude first cut. An alternative modelling, which is based on very straightforward ideas, sets the stage and following the preliminaries the P/E-multiple is shown to depend on the growth in expected earnings, Y2 vs. Y1. This approach avoids the need for a g-parameter a la Gordon-Williams. The development brings out a similar g-parameter dependency in the residual income model (when P = bv + RI/(r-g)) and the Ohlson-Jeuttner (2005) model; both include a 1/(r-g) type of multiplier.

Prior valuation studies have developed and improved valuation models. However, these models are often difficult to use, because estimating their various factors requires lots of skills and experience. Thus, this study aims to provide a simple valuation method for the listed firms based on value relevance research. Using the annual data of the listed firms in 87 countries, we present the usefulness of the basic value relevance model for international investment. After confirming that market value of equity can be explained by book value and actual net income, we demonstrate that the explanatory power of this model is as high as the model using forecasted or residual income. Considering the higher availability of actual net income, this result supports the usefulness of actual earnings. Next, we demonstrate that the basic value relevance model with actual net income is useful for forecasting future annual returns and obtaining higher portfolio returns. To reduce the practical difficulty of our method, we propose a simple procedure, which requires inputting only three pieces of the accounting information of the target firm (sales, net income, and book value of equity) to estimate its intrinsic value. This valuation method should contribute to the international investment decision-making especially for practitioners without enough experience of valuation.

Using three different approaches to measure misvaluation, we analyse the impact of misvaluation on liquidity management of REITs. Our analysis reveals that misvaluation increases cash holdings because misvaluated REITs issue new equity to low costs of equity. In addition, REITs with higher misvaluation are more likely to establish a bank credit line and receive higher capacity of credit lines because they want to quickly finance acquisitions. Finally, we find that the share of the bank credit line component relative to the cash component in the total liquidity increases with the increase in misvaluation. Taken together, our results suggest that misvaluation has a significant impact on liquidity management in the REIT sector.

This paper attempts to estimate and study the role of 'other information', as posited in the residual income valuation model of Ohlson (1995), for tracking and predicting future returns of the S&P 500. 'Other information' is an unobserved variable and defined as a summary of value-relevant information about events and their effect on future profitability, which is captured in a company's current stock price and returns, but not yet reflected in a company's current financial statements. This suggests a potential to predict subsequent returns. Previous literature has found that traditional valuation metrics (e.g. B/P, E/P, and D/P ratios) have poor predictive power. In this study, we apply a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate this value-relevant latent variable and assess its predictive performance. The FAVAR is a suitable model because it enables us to analyze and quantify the linkages of stock market value, profitability, and unobserved factors that are broadly captured by big data. We use a two-step principal components estimation approach to extract the unobserved factors of 78 informational variables from financial market, accounting, investor and consumer sentiment, and macroeconomic data. Our analysis shows that, in comparison to competing measures, the estimated latent value-relevant variable can track contemporaneous stock returns and has statistically reliable power to predict both future real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury Bill rate, both in- and out-of-sample.

We extend the original idea of the residual income model and decompose the firm’s cost of equity capital into its two elementary components: The discount rate of normal operating earnings (kNE) and discount rate of residual operating earnings (kRE). The first part of the paper identifies the analytical relation between the firm’s cost of capital, kNE and kRE for the un-levered firm in steady state conditions. The second part of the paper empirically tests this relation by exploiting the cross section of firm’s operating profitability (RNOA) and enterprise price-to-book ratio (PNOA/NOA). Our findings support the idea that residual earnings are the less risky component of income.

This paper uses accounting-based reverse engineering of market expectations to identify potentially mispriced stocks. Building upon the “errors-in-expectations” hypothesis, we develop a theoretically funded yet practical tool for stock screening in this paper. We use the Ohlson (1995) model to apply and extend the framework from the first paper by connecting total stock returns to accounting-based fundamentals and (changes in) expected residual income levels, both in the short-term and long-term future. In a similar manner to Piotroski & So (2012), we construct a scoring index – VScore. VScore includes both fundamental data and short-term market expectations that stem from the theoretical framework we provide beforehand, where short-term expectations perform a verifying function for historical fundamentals for the determination of quality. We document that the book-to-price (B/P) effect is concentrated among firms for which long-term speculation is simultaneously incongruent to the underlying fundamentals and short-term expectation (stocks that combine cheapness with quality), indicating that those stocks are interesting subjects for a more extensive fundamental analysis.

This paper reviews literature on reverse engineering in equity valuation from the perspective of a fundamental investor. Despite a history of over 80 years, the literature on reverse engineering shows no clear consensus on the modelling, conceptualisation and operationalisation of the technique. Moreover, the literature often includes ad-hoc, speculative assumptions that put many empirical results in question if treated transparently. We derive a new assessment framework for applied reverse engineering in accounting-based equity valuation from the perspective of a fundamental investor. Based on the framework, we find that there is no approach to reverse engineering that sufficiently fulfils the needs of fundamental investors in the literature. In search of a remedy, we derive a model based on the Ohlson (1995) model that is tailored to reverse engineering and complements a more extensive fundamental analysis. We further provide implications of our insights for investors and identify potential directions of future research based on these insights, e.g. stock screening.

Over 300 factors have been found to explain the cross-section of expected stock returns. Empirical studies also show that findings from multifactor asset-pricing models have not been consistent in ...

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investment efficiency on cost of equity capital. Design/methodology/approach Prior research indicated that any governance mechanism which reduces the agency conflict reduces the cost of equity capital. This study provides empirical evidence that investment efficiency represents such governance mechanism which reduces agency conflict and hence cost of equity. The authors use price earning growth ratio (Easton, 2004) and Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005) model for the measurement of cost of equity while investment efficiency measure of Biddle et al. (2009) have been employed to examine the association. We also use Chen et al. (2013) measure of investment efficiency for robustness. Findings The results show that investment efficiency is negatively associated with cost of equity. It was also found that there is a strong relationship of investment efficiency with cost of equity for non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs), while no significant relationship is found for state-owned enterprises. Furthermore, overinvestment is significantly associated with cost of equity capital. However, no significant relationship was found between underinvestment and cost of equity. Originality/value The results provide empirical support to the argument that investment efficiency acts as a mechanism which represents lower agency conflict. Moreover, the findings provide evidence that government act as “deep pocket” while NSOEs are punished by investors for inefficient resource allocation. This study also proposes that there is a positive relationship between overinvestment and cost of equity.

This study examines whether misvaluation which causes long run underperformance is present when firms issue additional equity and if firms time the additional equity issue when market as a whole overvalues the firms, in order to capitalise on the value appreciation. The overvaluation is measured as the difference between the market value of the issuing firm 30 days prior to the equity issue date and the fundamental value of the firm 1 year prior to the day of equity issue. The fundamental value is quantified using the residual income valuation method. The results are partially consistent with the existing empirical literature, as misvaluation is present when firms issue additional equity. However, firms do not specifically time the issuance of equity with overall market overvaluation as based on the results collected, more additional equity were issued when misvaluation levels were lower.

Analyzing publicly traded stocks in Korea surrounding IFRS adoption in 2011, we find that the gap between stock price and firm value, value-to-price (V/P) ratio, narrows following the IFRS adoption and that this narrowed gap is observed only for higher V/P firms. We further find that the return predictability of V/P decreases in the post-IFRS period. Using a path analysis, we report further evidence that mandatory IFRS adoption decreases idiosyncratic volatility and improves trading volume and market liquidity, thereby contributing to the narrowed gap between value and price. We conclude that IFRS adoption contributes to resolution of Korea discount.

We investigate the relation between analyst recommendations and the cost of equity implied by current stock price and earnings forecasts. Contrary to expectations, previous-year recommendation upgrades are associated with increases in the current cost of equity; and past increases in the cost of equity are associated with current recommendation downgrades. Furthermore, changes in the implied cost of equity and changes in analyst recommendations jointly explain as much as 31% of the variation in 1-year holding period returns, where most of the variation (28%) is explained by the implied cost of equity alone. We document that when forming recommendations, analysts underestimate the role of the cost of equity.

In a model with irreversible capacity investments, we show that financial statements prepared under replacement cost accounting provide investors with sufficient information for equity valuation purposes. Under alternative accounting rules, including historical cost and value in use accounting, investors will generally not be able to value precisely a firm's growth options and, therefore, its equity. For these accounting rules, we describe the range of valuations that is consistent with the firm's financial statements. We further show that replacement cost accounting preserves all value-relevant information if the firm's investments are reversible. However, the directional relation between the value of the firm's equity and the replacement cost of its assets is different from that in the setting with irreversible investments.