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De-dollarization is a “significant reduction in the use of dollars in world trade and financial transactions, [as well as] decreasing national, institutional and corporate demand” for United States dollars. (Goldman Sachs 2023; Li Yuefen 2024) De-dollarization has been a persistent theme since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Gold System in 1971 and the rising US national debt. (Cohen 2015) Efforts to minimise reliance upon the US dollar, such as the 1976 introduction of the IMF Special Drawing Right and the 2002 introduction of the Euro, failed to displace dollar dominance. (Eichengreen 2011) The Euro is a currency without a Nation State and the IMF SDR is not a currency used to invoice and settle international trade and financial transactions. However, the decision of the United States to “weaponize” the use of the dollar and to impose restrictions on global payment systems have impelled countries to construct an alternative to the dollar system. (Sen 2019) This article first examines the adverse effects of using the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Second, the article examines the application of economic sanctions, specifically against the Russian Federation, to illustrate the probable development of an alternative reserve and invoice currency to co-exist with the dollar. Third, the article posits the conditions necessary to establish a viable alternative to the dollar and then examines efforts to promote alternatives to global payment systems such as SWIFT, and to build a new reserve currency. The article concludes: [1] the imposition of economic sanctions compels target countries to create alternative financial systems and settle international trade in national currencies; [2] establishing a new reserve currency out of whole cloth is a formidable task and lacks a recent historical counterpart, [3] the renminbi is the likely currency to rival, not displace, the US dollar.

De-dollarization is a "significant reduction in the use of dollars in world trade and financial transactions, [as well as] decreasing national, institutional and corporate demand" for United States dollars. (Goldman Sachs 2023; Li Yuefen 2024) De-dollarization has been a persistent theme since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Gold System in 1971 and the rising US national debt. (Cohen 2015) Efforts to minimise reliance upon the US dollar, such as the 1976 introduction of the IMF Special Drawing Right and the 2002 introduction of the Euro, failed to displace dollar dominance. (Eichengreen 2011) The Euro is a currency without a Nation State and the IMF SDR is not a currency used to invoice and settle international trade and financial transactions. However, the decision of the United States to "weaponize" the use of the dollar and to impose restrictions on global payment systems have impelled countries to construct an alternative to the dollar system.1(Sen 2019) This article first examines the adverse effects of using the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Second, the article examines the application of economic sanctions, specifically against the Russian Federation, to illustrate the probable development of an alternative reserve and invoice currency to co-exist with the dollar. Third, the article posits the conditions necessary to establish a viable alternative to the dollar and then examines efforts to promote alternatives to global payment systems such as SWIFT, and to build a new reserve currency.2 The article concludes: [1] the imposition of economic sanctions compels target countries to create alternative financial systems and settle international trade in national currencies; [2] establishing a new reserve currency out of whole cloth is a formidable task and lacks a recent historical counterpart, [3] the renminbi is the likely currency to rival, not displace, the US dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Latin American Journal of Economic Developement (LAJED) is the property of Universidad Catolica Boliviana San Pablo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper will argue that the current level of international debt is a huge 'bubble' waiting to burst, and that, if and when it does so, the entire financial structure of global capitalism will collapse, taking capitalism, as such, with it. The mechanism of this collapse, if it occurs, will be a collapse of the international banking system, and complete loss of confidence on the exchange markets in any form of reserve currency - either the US dollar or any putative replacement for it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Discussion Papers is the property of Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

After 2020, many countries claim a dominant position or serious participation in global politics. In monitoring the development of macroeconomic indicators, especially from the point of view of forecasting their development with regard to the direction of the globalized political-economic trend, one can look for the future of the world order. The combination of factors reflects the conflictual and complex nature of development, pointing to areas with high demographic pressure. The expansion of the sphere of influence of NATO and the European Union in the former Soviet republics caused great resentment in Russia. Russia, on the other hand, is trying to create a Eurasian bloc with a strong Orthodox core, but also with considerable influence in relatively weaker Islamic countries. The aim of the contribution is to predict the future development of the world's political-economic distribution of forces based on the position of the weakening role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Kafkas University, Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty / Kafkas Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of University of Kafkas, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research aims to identify possible global monetary system development scenarios in the context of the current United States dollar supremacy. The primary method used is foresight analysis, which is based on a combination of deductive and historical data and trend analyses. The paper outlines the main drivers of potential change and uses them as inputs for scenario analysis. The three considered scenarios are a continuation of the absolute dollar dominance, reduction of the dollar’s power and split of the world economy between multiple currencies, and the emergence of a new single prevalent currency. The main conclusion is that the second multipolar scenario resembles the current dynamics the most and is considered the baseline. However, the answer depends on the forecasting horizon as the scenarios have a certain sequencing. The dollar will probably maintain its supremacy in the short term. Its decline in the mid-term will give rise to a multipolar world, which can then, theoretically, lead to the emergence of a new dominant currency in the long term. The results might be used as a framework for further structured analysis of possible outcomes in this domain.

This article provides an analysis of the economic cost incurred by the world through the use of the fiat international reserve currency since the end of the 1971 gold standard system. The article uses the Quantity Theory of Money to provide an empirical manifestation of how reserve currency yields income to its issuing country through the provision of an inflation buffer, which is equivalent to what the article frames as an imperial rent of reserve currency. The article then provides a method to estimate the cumulative quantity of this rent by using data on the broad money supply, nominal GDP, and world total official foreign exchange holdings of the currency of the country in question. The article estimates that the quantity of the imperial rent of reserve currency that accrued to the four major reserve currency-issuing states (US, Euro area, UK, Japan) from the end of the gold standard until the end of 2021, which was accumulated through the official channel only, is of a value equivalent to 11.1 trillion USD, 71 % of this amount went to the US singly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the global financial recession of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, the US economic supremacy has experienced setbacks. China has steadily grown into a dependable economic force across the globe, particularly in Asia. Is the renminbi on the verge of becoming a global currency given the financial domination setbacks of the US economy? In this critical review analysis, I contend that the dollar’s hegemonic position is at risk, but the political and economic climate does not appear to be ripe for renminbi globalization. The Chinese hawks see the economic sanctions levied against Russia following the Ukraine invasion as a chance to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Furthermore, China has benefited from the first-mover advantage through the launching of the Central Bank Digital Currency. However, China must gain the trust of foreign users in the robustness of its financial system, economy, and digital yuan’s functionality for the globalization of the digital yuan to be effective. Moreover, to promote renminbi internalization, China must ease capital regulations, increase renminbi convertibility, and restructure its financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe have taken financial sanctions against Russia, which have had an important impact. The frequent use of financial sanctions has exacerbated the distrust of the dollar system in emerging markets and developing countries, and shaken the logic of the dollar and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system as public goods of the international monetary system. However, the position of the US dollar and SWIFT is still hard to change. This does not mean that the international monetary system will remain the same forever. As the willingness to hold foreign exchange reserves declines, emerging markets and developing countries will either increase their tolerance of exchange rate volatility or implement more capital account regulation. Therefore, in the trend of de-globalization in the future, the international monetary system will turn out to be more volatile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, evolution has been the defining feature of changes in the IMS. The IMS has always been dominated by the US dollar. With it comes four structural issues: imbalance, lack of coordination, inade quacy, and weaponization of financial infrastructure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict will further accelerate the diversification and fragmentation of the IMS. But it might also lead to revolutionary changes such as balkanization of the IMS and even the end of financial globalization. Diversification of reserve currency could alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy problems of the IMS, restraining the dollar weaponization to some extent, but could not solve the problem of incoordination. Without a fair and inclusive IMS, ever larger financial spillovers will come from center countries to peripheral ones, and the global economy and financial system will face greater challenges in both efficiency and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses a new concept presented in the works of B. Eichengreen, A.J. Mehl, L. Chitu “Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice”, according to which the state’s possession of nuclear weapons is linked to its possession of reserve currency. The paper aims to provide a detailed assessment of how gaining reserve currency status depends on the military and political potential of the state issuer. The research method is an analysis of the historical material and the current state of the issue under discussion. The study shows the relationship between the global military and political leadership and control over the global financial infrastructure, which increases its importance as a space for interstate conflicts. It has been proven that neither the presence of military power nor the ability and willingness to provide partners with security guarantees do not predetermine the acquisition of the reserve status by the national currency. This status is acquired as a result of control over global investment processes, in the implementation of which military power plays a significant, but not exclusive role. This power, as the potential for economic and financial dominance, is a derivative of the scale and level of development of the national economy, with a key factor in its deep involvement in international trade. From the point of view of practical forecasting of economic, military and political development, the authors conclude that in the foreseeable future, despite the strengthening of its military potential, the PRC will not be able and, most likely, will not try to obtain the status of the yuan as a reserve currency. The United States, in turn, will increasingly use its dominance in the capital market and control over the global financial infrastructure as a tool to maintain global leadership. Further study of the considered issues will significantly increase the efficiency of forecasting economic processes in relation to the military and political situation.

John Maynard Keynes proposed the concept of 'Bancor' in 1940 as a supranational currency that would serve as the international reserve currency. The concept did not take off at the time, despite the underlying need to liberate the international system from the hegemonic tendencies of a national currency serving as a global medium of exchange. The emergence of Bitcoin makes it possible to revive the idea of a de-nationalised global medium of exchange. This article examines the feasibility of such an idea by examining a viable state policy for adoption and use in the international realm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern global financial system is based on unlimited dollar issuance, which is backed by a key reserve asset – US debt obligations. The concept of official foreign exchange reserves promoted by the IMF puts in a privileged position the countries with reserve currencies, primarily the United State. This concept has exhausted the possibilities for productive investment of the savings of the rest of the world. As a result, the savings of the periphery of the global economy are directed to the consumption and speculative spheres. Global financial crises has proved – despite speculative activities banks have priority support from key central banks. Developing countries objectively claim a parity distribution of the benefits and costs of financial globalization, as they play an increasingly important role in global value chains. As a donor of the global financial system, Russia is practically not involved in the distribution of profits in the global financial market. As the largest supplier of raw materials, intellectual and financial resources, Russia requires new solutions in the field of international monetary circulation.

We apply Thirlwall's law (Thirlwall 1979) to estimate long run growth in the UK. In particular, we develop a new test allowing for potential structural breaks based on 2SLS to remedy potential weaknesses that existed in previous methods. Our results show the UK had different balance of payments positions over different time periods, and its growth has been constrained over the past two decades. We further elaborate on the pound's changing role as a reserve currency and how this has affected the UK's external constraint and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the subsequent political and economic consequences of the modern world have led to the permanent state of global turbulence, driving participants of the global financial and economic environment to look for ways out of the current realities, including the way in the direction of creating alternatives to US dollar in foreign exchange - the so-called reserve currency. The article disputes that the transition of currency to the status of a reserve one is a long, multi-step process. And an important step in this direction is the internationalization of said national currency. The author identifies the factors influencing the process of currency internationalization. Also, the article discusses in detail the measures being taken by China to convert its currency into one of the world’s currencies, and states that one should not lose sight of the fact that the process of the Yuan internationalization has both positive and negative effects. To conclude the topic the author presents possible scenarios for the reform of the world monetary system (WMS).

Copyright of Financial Space is the property of Cherkasy Institute of Banking, University of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Scientific Papers NaUKMA. Economics is the property of National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Faculty of Humanities and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Financial crisis is nothing new in the annals of history of the capitalistic path of economic development; it is a part of the business cycle. The theoretical basis is well entrenched in the concept of 'Keynesian Cross'. The tale of crisis, dating back centuries, has taken a new turn with the call for more globalization--liberalize trade and open up the financial sector. This has made many nations vulnerable to crises that are likely to be repeated, perhaps frequently. Based on recent experience, warning signs can be read from the dollar-centric exchange rate, the mainstay for the stability of the current global financial system. To a careful observer, fatigue in the system cannot be overlooked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]