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Abstract Diagnosis of a clinical high-risk (CHR) state enables timely treatment of individuals at risk for a psychotic disorder, thereby contributing to improving illness outcomes. However, only a minority of patients diagnosed with CHR will make the transition to overt psychosis. To identify patients most likely to benefit from early intervention, several studies have investigated characteristics that distinguish CHR patients who will later develop a psychotic disorder from those who will not. We aimed to summarize evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on predictors of transition to psychosis in CHR patients, among characteristics and biomarkers assessed at baseline. A systematic search was conducted in Pubmed, Scopus, PsychInfo and Cochrane databases to identify reviews and meta-analyses of studies that investigated specific baseline predictors or biomarkers for transition to psychosis in CHR patients using a cross-sectional or longitudinal design. Non-peer-reviewed publications, gray literature, narrative reviews and publications not written in English were excluded from analyses. We provide a narrative synthesis of results from all included reviews and meta-analyses. For each included publication, we indicate the number of studies cited in each domain and its quality rating. A total of 40 publications (21 systematic reviews and 19 meta-analyses) that reviewed a total of 272 original studies qualified for inclusion. Baseline predictors most consistently associated with later transition included clinical characteristics such as attenuated psychotic and negative symptoms and functioning, verbal memory deficits and the electrophysiological marker of mismatch negativity. Few predictors reached a level of evidence sufficient to inform clinical practice, reflecting generalizability issues in a field characterized by studies with small, heterogeneous samples and relatively few transition events. Sample pooling and harmonization of methods across sites and projects are necessary to overcome these limitations.

Paranoid delusions or unfounded beliefs that others intend to deliberately cause harm are a frequent and burdensome symptom in early psychosis, but their emergence and consolidation still remains opaque. Recent theories suggest that overly precise prediction errors lead to an unstable model of the world providing a breeding ground for delusions. Here, we employ a Bayesian approach to test for such an unstable model of the world and investigate the computational mechanisms underlying emerging paranoia. We modelled behaviour of 18 first-episode psychosis patients (FEP), 19 individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and 19 healthy controls (HC) during an advice-taking task designed to probe learning about others’ changing intentions. We formulated competing hypotheses comparing the standard Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF), a Bayesian belief updating scheme, with a mean-reverting HGF to model an altered perception of volatility. There was a significant group-by-volatility interaction on advice-taking suggesting that CHR-P and FEP displayed reduced adaptability to environmental volatility. Model comparison favored the standard HGF in HC, but the mean-reverting HGF in CHR-P and FEP in line with perceiving increased volatility, although model attributions in CHR-P were heterogeneous. We observed correlations between perceiving increased volatility and positive symptoms generally as well as with frequency of paranoid delusions specifically. Our results suggest that FEP are characterised by a different computational mechanism – perceiving the environment as increasingly volatile – in line with Bayesian accounts of psychosis. This approach may prove useful to investigate heterogeneity in CHR-P and identify vulnerability for transition to psychosis.

There has been considerable interest in the role of synchronous brain activity abnormalities in the pathophysiology of psychotic disorders and their relevance for treatment; one index of such activity are EEG resting-state microstates. These reflect electric field configurations of the brain that persist over 60–120 ms time periods. A set of quasi-stable microstates classes A, B, C, and D have been repeatedly identified across healthy participants. Changes in microstate parameters coverage, duration and occurrence have been found in medication-naïve as well as medicated patients with psychotic disorders compared to healthy controls. However, to date, only two studies have directly compared antipsychotic medication effects on EEG microstates either pre- vs. post-treatment or between medicated and unmedicated chronic schizophrenia patients. The aim of this study was therefore to directly compare EEG resting-state microstates between medicated and medication-naïve (untreated) first-episode (FEP) psychosis patients (mFEP vs. uFEP). We used 19-channel clinical EEG recordings to compare temporal parameters of four prototypical microstate classes (A–D) within an overall sample of 47 patients (mFEP n = 17; uFEP n = 30). The results demonstrated significant decreases of microstate class A and significant increases of microstate class B in mFEP compared to uFEP. No significant differences between groups were found for microstate classes C and D. Further studies are needed to replicate these results in longitudinal designs that assess antipsychotic medication effects on neural networks at the onset of the disorder and over time during illness progression. As treatment response and compliance in FEP patients are relatively low, such studies could contribute to better understand treatment outcomes and ultimately improve treatment strategies.