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We measure the proportion of real exchange rate movements accounted for by cross-country movements in relative reset prices (prices that changed since the previous period) using CPI microdata for five countries. Relative reset prices account for almost all of the real exchange rate movements. This is a challenge for most workhorse sticky price models used to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates, in which relative reset prices are sluggish. Models where movements in relative wages are persistent and track the nominal exchange rate do replicate both the empirical properties of the real exchange rate and of relative reset prices.

The present paper focuses on the comparison of wage levels across OECD countries, the research data coming from an official OECD website. The following eight variables are employed in this study – the average wage, minimum wage, GDP per capita, tertiary education attainment, employment ratio, trade unions, labour productivity and inflation rate. The average wage represents the main explained variable in regression and correlation analysis, the remaining seven variables being used as potential explanatory ones. In order to compare living standards in different countries, average and minimum wages as well as per capita GDP data were adjusted to relative purchasing power parity. The principal objective was to identify which explanatory variables statistically significantly affect the average wage. The analysis showed that only three of them – namely the employment ratio, GDP per capita and labour productivity – have a significant effect at a 5% statistical level. The regression hyperplane with a forward stepwise selection was applied. Nine clusters of OECD countries were created based on both all the eight variables and four of them selected in regression analysis (the average wage and three explanatory ones) with the aim to identify the countries that coexist in the same cluster. Ward's method and Euclidean distance are utilized in cluster analysis, the number of clusters being determined with the use of the Dunn index. The study also aims at the prediction of the average wage by 2022, which was made via exponential smoothing of time series. (The greatest purchasing power is reported by Luxembourg, Switzerland, Iceland, the U.S., the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Austria, the highest average wage growth rate by 2022 being expected in the Baltic and some other post-communist countries.)

We jointly re-specify the relative purchasing power parity (RPPP) and uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) conditions as the (log) ratio of stochastic discount factors by inverting the market price of risk formula. Our empirical model provides new insights, which show that violations to UIP and RPPP both stem from the existence of a risk premium in exchange rates and from observed market return differentials being a noisy statistic of the markets' expected return differentials in our re-specified model. Using an integrated macro-microstructure framework for expected market return differentials improves our model fit and the validity of UIP and RPPP.

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems.

I study the effects of entry to the European Monetary Union (EMU) on relative purchasing power parity (PPP) convergence using monthly disaggregated price indices from 32 European countries from 1999 to 2016. I examine the entry of Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia to the EMU, and I estimate the bands of inaction of relative prices before and after entry using a threshold autoregressive model. I find a positive effect of the EMU on relative PPP convergence: after entry, the bands of inaction with EMU members fell by 17 percent. Cross‐sectional evidence supports the theoretical prediction that bands of inaction are related to transaction costs.

We derive daily market‐based domestic long‐term inflation expectations for eight countries without inflation swap markets. To do so, we use foreign inflation swaps together with (1) foreign and domestic interest rate swaps assuming that purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hold or together with (2) spot and forward exchange rates assuming that PPP, UIP and covered interest rate parity (CIP) hold. We confirm the plausibility of our PPP‐UIP and PPP‐UIC‐CIP measures by also applying these methods for countries with inflation swap markets. We moreover illustrate how the data can be used to answer such questions as whether inflation reacts to long‐term inflation expectations, whether these expectations are well‐anchored and how long‐term real interest rates have moved over the past decade.

This paper revisits the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in a small open emerging economy using wavelet-based methodologies. Based on data for Romania, our results confirm the theoretical predictions on the interest rate - exchange rate relationship during turmoil or policy changes. In the short term, the relationship is negative, confirming the sticky-price models, and over the long term, the relationship is positive, confirming the Purchasing Power Parity theory. At the beginning of the turmoil, the exchange rate movements generally take the lead over the interest rates for the first month, but the monetary authorities take the lead afterwards. Our results reveal that in a small open emerging economy with a direct inflation targeting monetary policy regime, the relationship between exchange rates and interest rate is fundamentally different from that in an advanced economy. Also, our results stress the necessity that the central bank must pay simultaneous attention to both variables in order to achieve their monetary policy targets.

We construct four large data sets of bilateral real exchange rates based on traded good prices (food and clothing, respectively) and broader price indices (consumer price index, CPI, and wholesale price index, WPI). On these data sets, we run non†parametric regressions to examine how the real exchange rate, the price differential, and the nominal exchange rate react to an overvalued real exchange rate over time. In line with the theory we develop, our regressions show the following: First, real exchange rates are mean†reverting. Second, prices converge. Third, price convergence implies purchasing power divergence and thus does not contribute to real exchange rate convergence. Indeed, when price adjustment is fast (as for our traded good price data sets), we even observe diverging nominal exchange rates. Our findings suggest that movements both away from and towards PPP may be less related to traded good price movements than is commonly thought.

Applying fixed-effects panel data, this study investigates the impact of U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states (overvaluation and undervaluation) on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by U.S. residents over the post-Plaza Accord period. The foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries. Previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment. These are the wealth effect and the profit-oriented effect. The evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist. We find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued U.S. dollar and the demand for foreign equities. For developed countries, the wealth effect dominates the profit-oriented effect when the U.S. dollar is overvalued, while, for developing countries, the profit-oriented effect dominates the wealth effect. The results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative PPP equilibrium when analyzing U.S. allocations to foreign equities. The findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory. Some of the results, however, disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event. The findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates.

We analyze the alleged undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi against the US dollar through an application of the relative PPP hypothesis, the PPP approach. The PPP approach measures the relative misalignment of a currency by estimating the relationship between log price levels and log per capita real incomes from a cross section of countries. We estimate this relationship by using ICP 2011 and incorporating model selection tests. Our results confirm that price level-real income relationship is best approximated by a quadratic functional form. We show that, using this functional form, the PPP approach does not reveal any evidence of renminbi undervaluation as of 2011, and this result is robust to various sensitivity tests.

The notion of purchasing power parity has been an important building block in the theory of nominal and real exchange rates and for many theoretic models in international economics, leading to the ...

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)I.INTRODUCTIONThis paper studies relative price level convergence by utilizing panels of major cities in Korea. While substantial research continues to evaluate price level disparities in international context, there have been relatively lack of successful empirical studies investigating the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) within a single currency area. To gain further insight for the sources of considerable and persistent price level dispersion, we employ formal statistical techniques to test whether intranational price level differentials tend to shrink over time with a special emphasis on their heterogeneous transitional behavior. Our empirical analysis explores potential explanations for why there is substantial deviation from PPP or markedly slow convergence by considering disaggregated CPI data classified according to consumption expenditure in addition to extant factors that are attributable to the PPP deviations, such as transportation costs, income, and input prices.The importance of understanding both time-series and cross-sectional properties of price dispersion measures has been underscored by researchers as well as policymakers. Since PPP has been a key building block of most open-economy macroeconomic models as the link between exchange rate and relative price levels, empirical validity of PPP is a long-standing issue. Ever since Rogoff (1996) articulated the PPP puzzle, a large number of papers have studied price level convergence with international data and potential sources of PPP deviation or slow price level convergence.1 This has also brought about interest in testing convergence in relative city price within a country to better understand difference in prices across locations, Beck, Hubrich, and Marcellino (2009), Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora (2002), Parsley and Wei (1996), and Sonora (2008), to name a few. Unlike international data, it may be reasonable to conjecture that major cities of a country share relatively similar characteristics, and thus relative price dispersion is unlikely to be substantial. However, the conclusion regarding long-run patterns of price disparities across cities is somewhat mixed, whereas PPP clearly is violated in the short run in those studies. Interestingly, some studies argue that price level convergence rates within a country are somewhat longer than those estimated with international data (Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora, 2002).Despite the fact that the deviation from PPP is well documented in international data and even within a country, there has not been an extensive study rigorously investigating the possibility of PPP among major cities in Korea.2 This motivates us to examine the long-run behavior of relative price level dispersion with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transition dynamics of individual prices. In addition, with disaggregated CPI data, the paper scrutinizes dynamic patterns of price disparities for consumption expenditure categories classified according to purpose.3 Our research has primarily three goals. First, we investigate whether there exist persistent regional price level disparities, and, if so, assess the extent of deviations from PPP. In addition, their dynamic patterns are also examined. Second, and more importantly, this paper aims to provide a better understanding of main factors that drive substantial price level disparities across cities. Third, as overall price divergence does not necessarily exclude the possibility of club convergence, we explore whether there is a subgroup of cities that share similar aspects in terms of socioeconomic variables and exhibit price level convergence among the member cities.To draw attention to the importance of regional price level dispersion, we first document some salient features of intercity price differentials.4 Some basic descriptive statistics of price differential variability and mean absolute log price differential indicate that there is little evidence of price level convergence. …

This study applies a second-generation panel unit-root tests to determine the stochastic properties of real exchange rates for 14 Asian countries. Based on three popular alternative definitions of a currency crisis, we identify the several important currency crisis episodes in the region. The purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis was overwhelmingly supported after accommodating these heterogeneous noisy and unstable observations. Our panel unit-root test that controls for cross-sectional dependence and is robust to structural breaks confirms that the crisis in all the countries fits well with the second-generation models of currency crisis, that is, the root cause of the currency crises may not lie in economic fundamentals. PPP relation emerges when breaks and cross country dependency has been taken into account for these 14 countries.

A new approach to cointegration developed by Enders et al. (Cointegration tests using instrumental variables with an example of the U.K. demand for money. Unpublished working paper. http://wenders.people.ua.edu/time-series-methods.html , 2008) is applied to long-span, high-frequency data to test for purchasing power parity in the Mexico–US real exchange rate. Overall the empirical results suggest that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds for the study period. The evidence for PPP is stronger when structural breaks are allowed in the real exchange rate.

This paper contributes to the literature through developing a model of exchange rate adjustments in a dynamic IS-LM-X analytical framework. Our new model, in particular, a) makes the IS-LM model dynamic; b) endogenizes the exchange rate and price variables and; c) extends the dynamic IS and LM components into the external sector in an open economy that evolves over time. The effect of a change in monetary policy on the exchange rate is evaluated and the trajectory towards its new long-run equilibrium level is projected. These are in contrast to the traditional monetary models of exchange rate determination and adjustments that play primarily with the LM component of the IS-LM framework in discrete steps. Effects of interest rate parity and purchasing power parity are then scrutinized, ranging from the short-term to the long-run continuously. The study has profound policy implications, especially in an era of quantitative easing.

While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange rates, the adjustment of real exchange rates toward their long-run equilibrium surprisingly became faster. To investigate, we distinguish between differing rates of purchasing power parity (PPP) convergence conditional on alternative shocks, which we refer to as “conditional PPP.” We find that the loss of the exchange rate as an adjustment mechanism after the introduction of the euro was more than compensated by the elimination of the exchange rate as a source of shocks, in combination with faster adjustment in national prices. These findings support claims that flexible exchange rates are not necessary to promote long-run international relative price adjustment.

This study presents constructed equilibrium exchange rates (EERs) of the euro and its predecessors the European Unit of Account and the European Currency Unit, as well as the euro’s member states using a relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) equilibrium. The revealed patterns of over- and undervaluation demonstrate how well suited the northern member states, in contrast to the southern states, were for the monetary union. Moreover, a relative persistent overvaluation for Greece and Portugal suggests that their ambition to join the euro reduced their competitiveness. The constructed EERs of the euro suggest the European Commission was able to set the initial value of the euro with a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the EERs indicate a successive strengthening of the fundamental value of the euro versus the U.S. dollar from 1999 to 2015. The analysis shows a close correlation between the deviations from equilibrium and the events of Greece’s sovereign debt crisis. In addition, the p...

This paper provides a test of purchasing power parity (PPP) as an explanation for longtermforeign exchange rate movement. We impose symmetry and proportionality restrictions ofPPP to data drawn from the period 1969.1 through 2001.4. The tests are also run for sub-periods. Symmetry and proportionality restrictions find little support for the unit root tests though the Johansen test suggests that foreign exchange rate and inflation rate are linked in a long run sense. Error correction models are then estimated on the basis of the assumption that the United States inflation rate is exogenous. The error correction models result also rejects the PPP.Keywords: purchasing power parity, exchage rate

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework developed in Eaton et al. (2016) , we revisit the puzzles in a counterfactual world without trade frictions in manufactures. Removing these trade frictions goes a long way toward resolving a number of puzzles. The dependence of domestic investment on domestic saving falls by half or disappears entirely, mitigating the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) puzzle. Changes in nominal GDPs in U.S. dollars become less variable across countries and line up with changes in real GDPs as much as with real exchange rates, mitigating the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Less dramatically, changes in consumption become more correlated across countries, mitigating the consumption correlations puzzle and changes in real exchange rates become less variable across countries, mitigating the relative purchasing power parity puzzle.

This study investigates the nonlinear data generating processes of real effective exchange rates in a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries; the region with the highest transportation costs, trade ...

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an old and controversial proposition in economic literature. It is based on the law of one price, which argues that, after adjusting for the exchange rate, domestic and foreign price levels are equal. The relative version of PPP argues that exchange rate changes depend on the differential between domestic and foreign inflation rates. The absolute PPP version is based on restrictive assumptions that prevent it to hold in the short run. However, several studies support the validity of the relative PPP proposition in the long run. It is often observed that countries with persistently high inflation experience weak currencies. Our empirical testing using impulse response functions derived from a VAR model for eight countries provide mixed results. In six out of eight selected countries, relative PPP is supported by data in the long run.

We test for long-run covariability between nominal exchange rate depreciation and inflation differentials to provide a new perspective on long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The method directly tests Cassel’s concept of relative PPP and is more robust to departures from exact unit roots in nominal exchange rates or relative prices than standard unit root and cointegration tests for PPP. The central result of the paper is that the 90 percent confidence interval for (1) the long-run correlation coefficient is above zero and (2) the long-run linear regression coefficient contains one and, therefore, long-run PPP cannot be rejected for 9 of the 16 countries. For six of the countries, adding a third criterion that the confidence interval for the long-run linear regression coefficient have relatively narrow bands provides strong evidence of long-run PPP. The evidence of long-run PPP is much stronger for high inflation/high depreciation countries than for low inflation/low depreciation countries.

Between 1789 and 1803 the National Debt Office issued unbacked interest bearing notes whereas the Bank of Sweden issued silver backed notes. The massive note issuance by the National Debt Office led to different exchange rates and two units of account. The situation gave rise to an early paper standard theory formulated by Anders Wappengren, a well-read merchant who was strongly influenced by Adam Smith and the French physiocrats. Wappengren had a firm understanding of monetary systems and the adjustment mechanism under floating exchange rates, including such concepts as purchasing power parity and price stickiness.

The goal of this study is to analyze the doctrine purchasing power parity (PPP) in Indonesia with the case study of the rupiah exchange rate to U.S. dollar. The autoregressive is used to estimate the relationship between the change of exchange rate and the difference Indonesia–USA inflation rate. The data used in this study are quarterly data obtained from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Bank Indonesia (BI) with the period 1997Q4-2013Q4. The exchange rate that used in this study is using the rate on rupiah to U S dollar. The price data used consumer price index in Indonesia and the United States with a base year of 2000. The results of this study show, that rupiah to the U.S. dollar is undervalued during the free floating exchange rate system and, the PPP doctrine to the case of the rupiah to the U.S. dollar is not valid in the period of this study.

This paper presents indirect evidence that absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) may hold in the long-run between Mexico and the U.S., but due to data limitations, the relationship could not be tested directly. Thus it is not clear if absolute PPP holds in the long run between the U.S. and Mexico. Given that relative PPP is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for absolute PPP to hold, this study tests the relationship between the change in the log of the exchange rate, and the changes in the log of the U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the Mexican PPI. Here, the absence of relative PPP would indicate that absolute PPP could not hold. Given that all the relevant variables in first difference log are stationary, PPP in its relative form holds and OLS can be applied directly in a VAR model setting, viz., treating all variables initially as potentially endogenous. The estimates indicate one-way Granger causality from the percentage change in the exchange rate to the percentage change in the Mexican price level, which is not an implausible result for an emerging nation such as Mexico which imports a significant fraction of (dollar denominated) intermediate products and capital inputs.

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) for the G6 countries (i.e., Canada, Italy, Japan, France, Germany, the UK) using smooth time-varying cointegrating approach, proposed by Park and Hahn (Econom Theory 15:664–703, 1999). Using monthly data over the 1971M1–2013M12 period, our empirical results indicate that PPP holds in two out of six countries (i.e., France and Germany).

This study applies a non-linear threshold unit-root test to test the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) to assess the non-stationary properties of the convergence of real exchange rates (RERs) based on Taylor rules for ten Central Eastern European countries. We find that the non-linear threshold unit-root test has greater power than the linear method suggested by Caner and Hansen (2001) if the true data generating process of RER convergence is a stationary non-linear process. We examine the validity of Taylor rules from the non-linear perspective and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that PPP holds true for seven Central Eastern European countries. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by external factors that originate from the United States. Additionally, our findings highlight that these countries' RER convergence is a mean reversion towards the equilibrium values of Taylor rules in a non-linear manner. Our findings mean capital mobility, exchange rate market efficiency and monetary integration are non-linear in these Central Eastern European countries.

Motivated by the argument that central bank intervention leads to non-linear exchange rate adjustment processes, we examine purchase power parity (PPP) by applying quantile unit root tests to the exchange rates of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) vis-a-vis seven Asian currencies. We show that exchange rate regime matters in determining whether PPP holds. While PPP holds overwhelmingly during the period when the NTD is under the fixed exchange rate regime, it is present only for some exchange rates during the managed floating rate regime. For exchange rates exhibiting mean reversion, the reversion occurs mainly when the shocks are large. In contrast to conclusion in the literature, our test results show little evidence of asymmetric mean reversion between positive and negative shocks.

This paper brings four new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP (HL) model is able to forecast real exchange rates better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Second, we find that this result holds if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Third, we find that it is preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. Fourth, for most currencies in our sample, the HL model outperforms the RW also in terms of nominal exchange rate forecasting.

In the empirical literature there is a prevalent view that real exchange rates tend to converge towards levels predicted by the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) only in the long-run and that short-run deviations from the PPP relationship are frequently sizable. The progressing of European monetary integration and the forming of monetary union spurred the interest of researchers to assess the relevance of the PPP theory in the case of the single European currency. Our paper therefore examines this exchange rate theory by testing a dataset of monthly real exchange rates for a sample of 11 eurozone members with respect to different benchmark currencies. Because of the documented drawbacks of linear specifications in examining this exchange rate theory, we utilise a nonlinear unit root test based on the ESTAR model proposed by Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell (2003). The results of unit root tests for the US dollar-based real exchange rate series as well as for Japanese yen-based series suggest that the PPP proposition does not hold in the case of eurozone countries. The absence of real exchange rates’ nonlinear reversion reported in this study thus confirms the thesis of Wu and Lin (2011) regarding the PPP relationship since the inception of the euro.

This paper tests the effect of per capita income, exchange rate, foreign direct investment inflows, net trade condition index and the final consumption expenditure growth rate on the fluctuation of purchasing power parity basing on panel fixed effects model during the period of 2000-2013 of 62 countries (religions). Empirical results show that the fluctuation of per capita income and exchange rate are the key factors to explain the fluctuation of purchasing power parity, however, purchasing power parity (PPP) fluctuation is influenced by the five variables has some differences in terms of magnitude and direction between different economies. The effect of the foreign investment on purchasing power parity is negative in low income economies, but other economies are the opposite, at the same time, the estimated coefficient of high income is lower than upper & middle income economies. The growth of final consumption expenditure is helpful to improve the purchasing power parity of low income and high income economies. It is surprising that the increase in per capita income will reduce the purchasing power of some developed economies. In China, purchasing power parity will continue a growth trend in future.

We examine international asset allocation with jump-diffusion assets in the presence of risky deviations of exchanges rates from purchasing power parity when investors consume both traded and nontraded goods. We show that adding new jump risks to existing diffusion assets does not alter investors’ original optimal portfolios of diffusion assets, as long as diffusion-risk premia remain unchanged. We also show that hedge portfolios against purchasing power parity deviations are integral parts of optimal portfolios for investors from different countries, and they can be constructed by using foreign and domestic inflation-indexed bonds. Moreover, country-specific demand for risky assets can arise from nontraded-good-specific inflation-rate-differential risks.

This study examines the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the data from the Korean won–US dollar and the Korean won–Japanese yen foreign exchange markets. We extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of Korea, the United States and Japan based on the method used by Chowdhry, Roll and Xia in 2005. We explicitly test the relative PPP hypothesis in light of the short-run price volatility using monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2012. Our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative PPP hypothesis. However, the results from the sample period excluding the Asian Financial Crisis period show that the relative PPP hypothesis holds for the Korean won–US dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact, but not for the Korean won–Japanese yen market. Abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation an...

After the widespread adoption of flexible exchange rate regime since 1973 the volatility of the exchange rate has increased, as a consequence of greater trade openness and financial integration. As a result, it has become difficult to find evidence of the purchasing power parity hypothesis (PPP). This study investigates the possibility of a fall in the persistence of the real exchange rate as a consequence of the financial and commercial integration by employing monthly real effective exchange rate dataset provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Beginning with an exploratory data analysis in the frequency domain, the fractional coefficient d was estimated employing the bias-reduced estimator on a sample of 20 countries over the period ranging from 1975 to 2011. As the main novelty, this study applies a bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimator instead of the traditional method proposed by GPH which eliminates the first and higher orders biases by a data-dependent plug-in method for selecting the number of frequencies to minimize asymptotic mean-squared error (MSE). Additionally, this study also estimates a moving window of fifteen years to observe the path of the fractional coefficient in each country. No evidence was found of a statistically significant change in the persistence of the real exchange rate. Resumo Após a adoção generalizada do regime de câmbio flexível nos diversos países desde 1973, a volatilidade da taxa cambial aumentou, em contexto de maior abertura comercial e integração financeira. Tornou-se mais difícil encontrar evidências favoráveis à hipótese da paridade do poder de compra. Este estudo analisa a possibilidade de queda na persistência da taxa de câmbio real como consequência da abertura comercial e integração financeira, com dados mensais de 20 países no período de 1975 a 2011. A partir de uma análise exploratória dos dados no domínio da frequência, o coeficiente fracionário d foi obtido utilizando-se um estimador semiparamétrico com redução de viés em que um algoritmo dependente dos dados seleciona o número ótimo de frequências que minimiza o erro quadrático médio, diferente do estimador tradicional GPH. O estudo também utiliza uma janela móvel de 15 anos para identificar a evolução do coeficiente fracionário ao longo dos anos. Não há evidência de queda na persistência da taxa de câmbio real, nem indicações que corroborem a hipótese da paridade do poder de compra.

This paper examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) theorem adjusted the “productivity-bias hypothesis” or the Balassa-Samuelson effect (Balassa, 1964; Samuelson, 1964) for eight East Asian countries including Japan, New Industrializing Economies (NIE-3: Singapore; Hong Kong, China; and Korea), the ASEAN-3 (Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This paper applies three methods of analysis i.e. univariate time series, multivariate regression and Johansen multivariate cointegration. The three methods give the same conclusions. First, the PPP hypothesis does not hold in the case of the eight East Asian countries. Second, non-traded goods give significant contribution on the PPP deviation. It is confirmed by the existence of Balassa-Samuelson effect.

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has been targeting inflation for more than a decade, using Lima's inflation as the operational measure. An alternative indicator is countrywide inflation, whose quality and real-time availability have improved substantially. Given these competing measures, two policy questions arise: What have been the implications for national inflation of targeting Lima's inflation? Would shifting to a national aggregate significantly affect the workings of monetary policy in Peru? To answer these questions, we estimate a large, but parsimonious, error correction model and investigate how regional shocks propagate across the country. The results indicate that a shock to Lima's inflation is transmitted fast and strongly elsewhere in the country, whereas the effects of shocks in other regions are limited and short-lived. This constitutes supporting evidence to the view that by targeting Lima's inflation, the BCRP has effectively, albeit indirectly, targeted national inflation.

We used panel data analysis to evaluate the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis of the ten ASEAN member countries between 1973 and 2015. We incorporated the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test as proposed by Pesaran (J Appl Econ 22:265-312, 2007). For panel cointegration analysis, we employed the four error-correction-based Westerlund (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748, 2007) panel cointegration tests. The Westerlund (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:709-748, 2007) tests are general enough to permit a large degree of heterogeneity, both in the long-run cointegrating relationship and in the short-run dynamics, and dependence within as well as across the cross-sectional units. To check the robustness of the results, we further estimated the cointegration test excluding Indonesia and Brunei. The findings support our initial results. Further, all the results overwhelmingly support the relative PPP hypothesis. Consequently, the monetary authority would be able to implement a self-regulating monetary policy. It would also be able to control the exchange rates.

This research has investigated the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Generalized-PPP in the presence of structural change for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, the ASEAN group and each of its major trading partners--the US, Japan, and Germany, and the major trading partners and each of the ASEAN countries and also South Korea. Another objective of this research is to study the short-run dynamic of Generalized-PPP and the interrelationships among real exchange rates in a currency area in the sense of Generalized-PPP. Real exchange rate series, in which Indonesia is a base country, have constructed using whole sales price index, whole sales price without oil for Indonesia and consumer price index and nominal exchange between Indonesia and country studies. The series start from January 1974 to October 1992;Based on the study of the policy and the performance of the reforms, the March 1983 was chosen as the breaking point for Indonesia economy. This structural change is accounted for all empirical studies in this research. The unit root test in the presence of structural change (Perron, 1989) has applied to test the validity of PPP. Empirical findings do not support PPP for all country studies. The validity of Generalized-PPP has investigated using Johansen's (1988) multivariate cointegration method. Some of the empirical results support the existence of Generalized-PPP;Error correction models have estimated for the group in which Generalized-PPP is held. Structural change dummy and error correction variables, mostly, were supported by empirical results. Interrelationships among real exchange rates in a currency area are studied applying impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted for providing standard error bounding of impulse response. The findings suggest that the US real exchange rate has stronger influence on the ASEAN real exchange rates and South Korean real exchange rate than that of Japanese real exchange rate. Among ASEAN real exchange rates, Singapore real exchange rate shown a stronger influence.

We measure the proportion of real exchange rate movements accounted for by cross-country movements in relative reset prices (prices that changed since the previous period) using CPI microdata for five countries. Relative reset prices account for almost the totality of the real exchange rate movements. This is at odds with the predictions of most workhorse sticky price models used to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. In these models relative reset prices are sluggish because relative wages are either sluggish or mean revert quickly. We show that models where movements in relative wages are persistent and track the nominal exchange rate do replicate the empirical properties of both the real exchange rate and of relative reset prices.

This paper aims at examining the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) both in absolute and relative terms with reference to the long run behavior of the real exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka relative to USA dollar. In doing so, the paper tests the presence of mean-reversion in the real exchange rate by using the unit root test approach i.e. Augmented Dickey-Fuller,DF-GLS, Zivot-Andrews tests. The paper verifies the long run relationship on co-integration and VAR framework. Using monthly data (01/2007-06/2013) and annual data (1986-2014), the paper finds support for both absolute and relative PPP. While the paper finds the evidence of structural change (Quandt-Andrew test and CUSUM test) only monthly data. VECM has been applied on monthly data, as there exists co-integrating equations for only monthly data (by using Johansen test ). Unit root test indicates that the real exchange rate is I (1), that is real exchange rate of Bangladesh is not stationary.

This paper tests the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using panel methods for nine countries in Southeast Asia in US Dollar and Japanese Yen. The results show that the absolute PPP is rejected by the panel unit root test for Southeast Asia countries over the January 1995 to February 2017. However, when we use developed panel unit root that accounts for structural breaks in the data, and test the PPP hypothesis over the July 1997 to August 2008, the PPP proposition seems to hold for after the Asian financial crisis period 1997 and before the global financial crisis 2008. In addition, this paper has used recent developed panel cointegration tests and found the long-run relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the relative prices – the relative PPP – and the results offer more evidence in Japanese Yen based in favor of cointegration in long-run compared with US Dollar is the base currency.

This paper employs a unique, hand-collected dataset of exchange rates for five major currencies (the lira of Barcelona, the pound sterling of England, the pond groot of Flanders, the florin of Florence and the livre tournois of France) to consider whether the law of one price and purchasing power parity held in Europe during the late fourteenth and early fifteenth centuries. Using single series and panel unit root and stationarity tests on ten real exchange rates between 1383 and 1411, we show that the parity relationship held for the pound sterling and some of the Florentine florin series individually and for almost all of the groups that we investigate. Our findings add to the weight of evidence that trading and arbitrage activities stopped currencies deviating permanently from fair values and that the medieval financial markets were well functioning. This supports the results reported in other recent studies which indicate that many elements of modern economic theories can be traced back over 700 years in Europe.