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Loes CM Bertens,1 Johannes B Reitsma,1 Karel GM Moons,1 Yvonne van Mourik,1 Jan Willem J Lammers,2 Berna DL Broekhuizen,1 Arno W Hoes,1 Frans H Rutten1 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, 2Department of Pulmonology, Heart-Lung Center, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands Purpose: Prediction models for exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are scarce. Our aim was to develop and validate a new model to predict exacerbations in patients with COPD. Patients and methods: The derivation cohort consisted of patients aged 65 years or over, with a COPD diagnosis, who were followed up over 24 months. The external validation cohort consisted of another cohort of COPD patients, aged 50 years or over. Exacerbations of COPD were defined as symptomatic deterioration requiring pulsed oral steroid use or hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis including backward selection and shrinkage were used to develop the final model and to adjust for overfitting. The adjusted regression coefficients were applied in the validation cohort to assess calibration of the predictions and calculate changes in discrimination applying C-statistics. Results: The derivation and validation cohort consisted of 240 and 793 patients with COPD, of whom 29% and 28%, respectively, experienced an exacerbation during follow-up. The final model included four easily assessable variables: exacerbations in the previous year, pack years of smoking, level of obstruction, and history of vascular disease, with a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.82). Predictions were well calibrated in the validation cohort, with a small loss in discrimination potential (C-statistic 0.66 [95% CI 0.61–0.71]). Conclusion: Our newly developed prediction model can help clinicians to predict the risk of future exacerbations in individual patients with COPD, including those with mild disease. Keywords: exacerbation of COPD, risk prediction, external validation, vascular disease

Abstract Background Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with high-in-hospital and short- and long-term post discharge mortality. Age and gender are important predictors of mortality in hospitalized HF patients. However, studies assessing short- and long-term risk of death stratified by age and gender are scarce. Methods A nationwide cohort was identified (ICD-9 codes 402, 428) and followed through linkage of national registries. The crude 28-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality was computed by age and gender. Cox regression models were used for each period to study sex differences adjusting for potential confounders (age and comorbidities). Results 14,529 men, mean age 74 ± 11 years and 14,524 women, mean age 78 ± 11 years were identified. Mortality risk after admission for HF increased with age and the risk of death was higher among men than women. Hazard ratio's (men versus women and adjusted for age and co-morbidity) were 1.21 (95%CI 1.14 to 1.28), 1.26 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.31), and 1.28 (95%CI 1.24 to 1.31) for 28 days, 1 year and 5 years mortality, respectively. Conclusions This study clearly shows age- and gender differences in short- and long-term risk of death after first hospitalization for HF with men having higher short- and long-term risk of death than women. As our study population includes both men and women from all ages, the estimates we provide maybe a good reflection of 'daily practice' risk of death and therefore be valuable for clinicians and policymakers.

Abstract Background As the population ages, peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in the lower extremities will become a larger public health problem. Awareness in patients as well clinicians of the high risk of morbidity and mortality is important but seems currently low. Insights in absolute mortality risks following admission for PAD in the lower extremities can be useful to improve awareness as they are easy to interpret. Methods A nationwide cohort of 4,158 patients with an initial admission for PAD in the lower extremities was identified through linkage of the national hospital and population register in 1997 and 2000. Results Over 60% of 4,158 patients were men. 28 days, 1 year and 5 year mortality risk were 2.4%, 10.3% and 31.0% for men and 3.5%, 10.4% and 27.4% for women. Coronary heart disease and stroke were frequent cause of death. Five years mortality risk was higher for men compared to women (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.21–1.53). Conclusion In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that, 5 year mortality risk is high, especially in men and comparable to that of patients admitted for acute myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke. Though, in general population the awareness of the severity of PAD in the lower extremities is significantly lower than that for any other cardiovascular disease and it seems that cardiovascular risk factor management for prevention in PAD patients is very modest.

Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of trauma room CT compared with CT performed at the radiology department.Methods: In this randomised controlled trial, adult patients requiring evaluation in a level 1 trauma centre were included. In the intervention hospital the CT system was located within the trauma room and in the control hospital within the radiology department. Direct and indirect medical costs of the institutionalised stay and diagnostic and therapeutic procedures were calculated.Results: A total of 1,124 patients were randomised with comparable demographic characteristics. Mean number of non-institutionalised days alive was 322.5 in the intervention group (95 % CI 314-331) and 320.7 in the control group (95 % CI 312.1-329.2). Mean costs of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures per hospital inpatient day were 554 for the intervention group and 468 for the control group. Total mean costs in the intervention group were 16,002 (95 % CI 13,075-18,929) and 16,635 (95 % CI 13,528-19,743) for the control group (P = 0.77).Conclusion: The present study showed that in trauma patients the setting with a CT system located in the trauma room did not provide any advantages or disadvantages from a health economics perspective over a CT system located in the radiology department. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical probability assessment is combined with d-dimer testing to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE). Purpose: To compare the test characteristics of gestalt (a physician's unstructured estimate) and clinical decision rules for evaluating adults with suspected PE and assess the failure rate of gestalt and rules when used in combination with d-dimer testing. Data Sources: Articles in MEDLINE and EMBASE in English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, or Dutch that were published between 1966 and June 2011. Study Selection: 3 reviewers, working in pairs, selected prospective studies in consecutive patients suspected of having PE. Studies had to estimate the probability of PE by using gestalt or a decision rule and verify the diagnosis by using an appropriate reference standard. Data Extraction: Data on study characteristics, test performance, and prevalence were extracted. Reviewers constructed 2 x 2 tables and assessed the methodological quality of the studies. Data Synthesis: 52 studies, comprising 55 268 patients, were selected. Meta-analysis was performed on studies that used gestalt (15 studies; sensitivity, 0.85; specificity, 0.51), the Wells rule with a cutoff value less than 2 (19 studies; sensitivity, 0.84; specificity, 0.58) or 4 or less (11 studies; sensitivity, 0.60; specificity, 0.80), the Geneva rule (5 studies; sensitivity, 0.84; specificity, 0.50), and the revised Geneva rule (4 studies; sensitivity, 0.91; specificity, 0.37). An increased prevalence of PE was associated with higher sensitivity and lower specificity. Combining a decision rule or gestalt with d-dimer testing seemed safe for all strategies, except when the less-sensitive Wells rule (cutoff value <=4) was combined with less-sensitive qualitative d-dimer testing. Limitations: Studies had substantial heterogeneity due to prevalence of PE and differences in threshold. Many studies (63%) had potential bias due to differential disease verification. Conclusion: Clinical decision rules and gestalt can safely exclude PE when combined with sensitive d-dimer testing. The authors recommend standardized rules because gestalt has lower specificity, but the choice of a particular rule and d-dimer test depend on both prevalence and setting. Primary Funding Source: Dutch Heart Foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the variability and systematic differences in polyp measurements on optical colonoscopy and CT colonography.Materials: Gastroenterologists measured 51 polyps by visual estimation, forceps comparison and linear probe. CT colonography observers randomly assessed polyp size two-dimensionally (abdominal and intermediate window) and three-dimensionally (manually and semi-automatically). Linear mixed models were used to assess the variability and systematic differences between CT colonography and optical colonoscopy techniques.Results: The variability of forceps and linear probe measurements was comparable and both showed less variability than measurement by visual assessment. Measurements by linear probe were 0.7 mm smaller than measurements by visual assessment or by forceps. The variability of all CT colonography techniques was lower than for measurements by forceps or visual assessment and sometimes lower (only 2D intermediate window and manual 3D) compared with measurements by linear probe. All CT colonography measurements judged polyps to be larger than optical colonoscopy, with differences ranging from 0.7 to 2.3 mm.Conclusion: A linear probe does not reduce the measurement variability of endoscopists compared with the forceps. Measurement differences between observers on CT colonography were usually smaller than at optical colonoscopy. Polyps appeared larger when using various CT colonography techniques than when measured during optical colonoscopy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to assess the role of postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) as an alternative for autopsy in determining the cause of death and the identification of specific injuries in trauma victims. A systematic review was performed by searching the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases. Articles were eligible if they reported both PMCT as well as autopsy findings and included more than one trauma victim. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility and quality of the articles. The outcomes were described in terms of the percentage agreement on causes of death and amount of injuries detected. The data extraction and analysis were performed together. Fifteen studies were included describing 244 victims. The median sample size was 13 (range 5-52). The percentage agreement on the cause of death between PMCT and autopsy varied between 46 and 100%. The overall amount of injuries detected on CT ranged from 53 to 100% compared with autopsy. Several studies suggested that PMCT was capable of identifying injuries not detected during normal autopsy. This systematic review provides inconsistent evidence as to whether PMCT is a reliable alternative for autopsy in trauma victims. PMCT has promising features in postmortem examination suggesting PMCT is a good alternative for a refused autopsy or a good adjunct to autopsy because it detects extra injuries overseen during autopsies. To examine the value of PMCT in trauma victims there is a need for well-designed and larger prospective studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To describe an efficient, generalizable approach to validate probabilistic record linkage results, in particular by a model-guided detection of linking errors, and to apply this approach to validate linkage of admissions of newborns.Methods: Our double-blind validation procedure consisted of three steps: sample selection, data collection and data analysis. The linked Dutch national newborn admission registry contained 30,082 records for 2001 including readmissions (7.4%) and twins (9.7%). A highly informative sample was selected from the linked file by oversampling uncertain links based on model-derived linking weight. Four hundred and eight fax forms with minimal registry information (admissions of 191 children) were sent out to different pediatric units. The pediatricians were asked to create a short detailed patient history from independent sources. The linkage status and additional record data was validated against this external information.Results: Response rate was 97% (395/408 faxes). Accuracy of the linkage of singleton admissions was high: except for some expected errors in the uncertain area (0.02% of record pairs), linkage was error-free. Validation of multiple birth readmissions showed 37% linkage errors due to low data quality of the multiple birth variables. The quality of the linked registry file was still high; only 1.7% of the children were from a multiple birth with multiple admissions, resulting in less than 1% linking error.Conclusions: Our external validation procedure of record linkage was feasible, efficient, and informative about identifying the source of the errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Using data from a published meta-analysis of magnetic resonance imaging of the menisci and cruciate ligaments, the authors varied the overall sensitivity and specificity, the between-studies variance, the within-study sample size, and the number of studies to evaluate the performances of the 3 methods in a simulation study. The parameters to be compared are the associated intercept, slope, and residual variance, using bias, mean squared error, and coverage probabilities. RESULTS: The BN method always gave unbiased estimates of the intercept and slope parameter. The coverage probabilities were also reasonably acceptable, unless the number of studies was very small. In contrast, the RI and NN methods could produce large biases with poor coverage probabilities, especially when sample sizes of individual studies were small or when sensitivities or specificities were close to 1. Although this was rare in the simulations, the bivariate methods can suffer from nonconvergence mostly due to the correlation being close to +/- 1. CONCLUSION: The binomial-normal model performed better than the other recently introduced methods for meta-analysis of data from studies of test performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]