Search

This paper introduces a nonparametric bootstrap method for estimating the causal effects of public policy under the circumstances of imperfect compliance and overlap. It focuses on business investment subsidies in Sardinia by comparing firms eligible for the 1999 subsidies to those not, amid issues of imperfect compliance and overlapping programs. Bootstrap confidence intervals (CI) are proposed for the average effect of treatment on the sub-population of compliers. The obtained CIs are consistent across nominal levels and robust against data nonnormality; they show coverages of credible intervals close to nominal, suggesting effectiveness for assessing causal effects. Compared to other methods, the results of the new combination of a specific estimator for incompliance and the bootstrap align with those of more modern approaches such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and Causal forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2016 Chile initiated a policy of free tuition for students from families in the lower half of the income distribution to improve access to and completion of higher education. The empirical effectiveness of the policy has not yet been completely demonstrated. This study analysed the difference in levels of academic performance of students enrolled in 12 Chilean universities with and without free tuition. The study used a regression discontinuity design with a running discrete variable locally randomised. The results show that the academic performance of students receiving free tuition was equivalent to that of students paying the full cost. There was no difference in the course pass rate of those with or without free tuition. Over time the effects of the policy could reduce inequality in the professional labour market. In addition, the study suggests that there may be complementary practices that further improve university student achievement and completion rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the long-run effects of slavery and restrictive Jim Crow institutions on Black Americans' economic outcomes. We track individual-level census records of each Black family from 1850 to 1940 and extend our analysis to neighborhood-level outcomes in 2000 and surname-based outcomes in 2023. We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, and wealth than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War. The disparities between the two groups have persisted substantially because most families enslaved until the Civil War lived in states with strict Jim Crow regimes after slavery ended. In a regression discontinuity design based on ancestors' enslavement locations, we show that Jim Crow institutions sharply reduced Black families' economic progress in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of relative household income on individual well-being, mental health, and physical health in Germany. Consistent with previous studies, we document a dip in the distribution of households in which the wife out-earns the husband. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that husbands in couples in which the wife earns just more exhibit lower satisfaction with life, work, and health, and report worse physical health. Women in these couples report lower satisfaction with life and health, and worse mental health. Results on life, work, and health satisfaction among women are more pronounced in West Germany, consistent with previous evidence of gender norm differences between East and West Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars have extensively explored policy feedback effects on mass publics. However, research exploring how one policy's implementation affects public preferences for another remains limited. This study proposes a novel cross‐domain policy feedback framework, emphasizing functional and normative interdependence as two mechanisms yielding cross‐domain resource and interpretive effects. We use multiple sets of nationally representative survey data and archival records from China, a context deeply rooted in filial piety culture. We employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and multilevel regressions to explore the effects of the one‐child policy on public preferences for old‐age support. The findings indicate that individuals subjected to more stringent enforcement exhibit increased support for the government assuming the responsibility for old‐age support. These changes largely stem from the reduction in their actual and desired number of children. The findings have significant implications for mass feedback research and reform efforts regarding population planning and public pension systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected healthcare systems, including the availability of cancer diagnosis and monitoring services. This study evaluated the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on newly diagnosed cancer cases in Taiwan. Methods: Weekly data on new cancer diagnoses from 2018 to 2021 were collected from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database. A regression discontinuity design was used to estimate the impact of the lockdown on the number of new cancer diagnoses, using city/county-level data. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to evaluate the immediate impact and post-intervention trends of the lockdown on new cancer diagnoses by clinical stage, age, and sex. Results: The lockdown resulted in an average weekly reduction of 66.1 new cancer diagnoses per city or county (p < 0.001). This decrease was largest for stage 0 cancer (75.1%), smallest for stage 4 cancer (45.0%), and larger among women (69.2%) than men (52.1%). After the lockdown, the rates of diagnoses for all cancer stages increased. This recovery was slowest for stage 0 cancer (0.020 per week per 100,000 people, p < 0.001) and fastest for stage 4 cancer (0.121 per week per 100,000 people, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The COVID-19 lockdown caused a sharp drop in new cancer diagnoses. Delays in diagnosis may lead to postponed treatment, resulting in premature death for advancedstage cancers and increased complications with worse prognoses for early-stage cancers. Prompt identification of patients affected by these delays is crucial. These findings can inform future pandemic policies and cancer care decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: The 2021 American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) Practice Guidance recommends albumin infusion when removing ≥5 L of ascites to prevent post-paracentesis circulatory dysfunction. However, the optimal criteria and scenarios for initiating albumin infusion subsequent to therapeutic paracentesis (TP) have been subject to limited scientific inquiry. METHODS: Weconducted a retrospective cohort study at aUSacademic healthcare center. Participants received elective, outpatient TP between July 2019 andDecember 2022. Patientswith spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, post-TP clinical adjustments, and/or hospitalization were excluded. The institution strictly followed the AASLD Guidance. We used a sharp regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the effect of albumin infusion at the AASLD Guidance-recommended cutoff of 5 L on serum creatinine and sodium trajectory after TP. RESULTS: Over the study period, 1,457 elective TPs were performed on 235 unique patients. Albumin infusion at the threshold of 5 L of ascites removal reduced serum creatinine levels by 0.046 mg/dL/d (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.116, P 5 0.037) and increased serum sodium levels by 0.35 mEq/L/d (95%confidence interval 0.15-0.55, P 5 0.001) compared with those who did not receive albumin infusion. The RD plots indicated worsened serum creatine/sodium levels after draining 3 L of fluid, approaching levels similar to or worse than with albumin infusion at 5 L or more. DISCUSSION: OurRDmodels supported the 2021 AASLD Guidance with robust estimation of causal effect sizes at the cutoff level of 5 L. Nevertheless, the findings also highlight the need to further evaluate the efficacy of albumin infusion in patients who undergo elective TP and have 3-5 L of ascites removed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Contraceptive methods are well-established in their ability to prevent pregnancy and increase individual agency in childbearing. Evidence suggests that contraceptives can also be used to treat adverse conditions associated with menstruation, including abnormal and prolonged uterine bleeding, heavy menstrual bleeding, painful menstruation, endometriosis, uterine fibroids, and premenstrual dysphoric disorders. This review investigates the effects of contraceptive techniques such as contraceptive pills, and long-acting reversible contraceptives (e.g. intrauterine devices, implants) on menstrual morbidity. Methods: Over ten databases with no geographical boundaries were searched from inception until October 2023. Study designs were one of the following types to be included: parallel or cluster randomised controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, controlled before and after studies, interrupted time series studies, cohort or longitudinal analyses, regression discontinuity designs, and case-control studies. Ten team members screened the papers in pairs with a Kappa score of more than 7, and Covidence was used. Conflicts were resolved by discussion, and the full papers were divided among the reviewers to extract the data from eligible studies. Results: Hormonal contraceptives are considered a well-tolerated, non-invasive, and clinically effective treatment for abnormal and prolonged uterine bleeding, heavy menstrual bleeding, painful menstruation, endometriosis, uterine fibroids, and premenstrual dysphoric disorders. Our studies investigating quality of life or well-being in women with heavy menstrual bleeding, endometriosis, or uterine fibroids have found improvements in all dimensions assessed. Conclusions: Hormonal contraceptives significantly reduce pain, symptom severity, and abnormal bleeding patterns associated with women who suffer from heavy menstrual bleeding, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids. SHORT CONDENSATION: Hormonal contraceptives significantly reduce pain, symptom severity, and abnormal bleeding patterns associated with women who suffer from heavy menstrual bleeding, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids. Findings can inform clinical practice and policy decisions to ensure that women have access to safe and effective contraceptive options that promote both reproductive and non-reproductive health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the return to education in South Korea by comparing metropolitan areas with non-metropolitan areas. It utilizes the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study from 2018 and 2019 for analysis, alongside the Mincer equation. The findings indicate that female workers have a higher return to education compared to male workers. The Oaxaca decomposition method reveals that private academies contribute to increasing differential treatment between men and women, whereas public education reduces the gap. Additionally, the regression discontinuity design method shows that the university premium is significantly different by region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the effects of a school accountability policy on year-to-year teacher mobility in publicly and privately managed low-performing schools in Chile. As school ranking depends on the institution's relative position according to a set of variables and their corresponding thresholds, we use a multivariate regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of the policy on teacher mobility. Our findings reveal that teachers are generally more likely to leave low-performing schools, although this result varies by type of management. Teachers in public schools tend to transfer to other schools within the system, and those who do so are more likely to be working in two or more schools. Meanwhile, teachers in private schools are comparatively more likely to exit the system altogether, with mobility concentrated among low-productivity teachers. Despite these differences, the introduction of accountability did not induce new hires at either type of school. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic resources within the jurisdiction of local governments in China shape the external financing environment of enterprises. However, few studies have focused on China's unique political hierarchy, which results in differentiated access to economic resources for different levels of local governments and substantially affects local corporate financing constraints. This paper examines the impact of city political hierarchy on firm financing constraints among Chinese A‐share listed firms from 2004 to 2019. We use the 200,000 population criterion for delineating the political hierarchy of cities in 1927 as the cutoff for fuzzy regression discontinuity design to identify causal effects. The results show that the greater a city's political rank is, the lower its financing constraints are. The mechanism suggests that the central government provides more financial and political resources to high‐level cities, directly and indirectly influencing the financing constraints of firms. In addition, high‐level cities' government preferences, bank loans, debt financing costs, and business credit are vital channels at the firm level. However, this effect varies depending on the ownership and size of the firm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objectives: Recent research has explored the spillover effects of retirement on spousal well-being, yet limited attention has been given to the short-term impact on spousal disability. This study explored the asymmetric spillover impact of retirement on spouses' disability severity among a national cohort of urban residents in China. Research Design and Methods: Utilizing 4 waves of data (2011–2018) from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey, we employ a nonparametric regression discontinuity design to estimate the short-term effect of retirement on spousal disability severity. Disability is assessed based on their ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). Furthermore, we conduct heterogeneity analysis stratified by factors such as the husband's retirement status, health conditions, lifestyle behaviors, and the wife's educational level. Additionally, we explore potential mechanisms including changes in health behaviors, emotions, and disease diagnoses. Results: Our findings indicate that wives' retirement has a significant favorable short-term effect on husbands' ADL scores, with a magnitude of −0.644 points (−9.78% relative to baseline). A significant beneficial effect of wives' retirement on the prevalence of husbands' difficulty in dressing, bathing, and eating was observed with substantial magnitudes of 0.075, 0.201, and 0.051 points, respectively. Various heterogeneity analyses and sensitivity tests confirmed the robustness of our results. The positive spillover effect of wives' retirement likely results from reduced negative emotions in husbands. In contrast, husbands' retirement does not affect the prevalence of ADL/IADL disability in their wives. Discussion and Implications: Underscoring the gender asymmetry in the effects of spousal retirement on disability, this study emphasizes the need for tailored policies considering men's and women's distinct disability experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The editorial "Using the difference-in-differences design with panel data in international business research: progress, potential issues, and practical suggestions" by Jiatao Li and Han Jiang discusses the popular design of causal inference in social science research known as Difference-in-Differences (DID) design. The article highlights the importance of identifying a particular event that influences some subjects but not others and compares the differences in outcomes before and after the treatment. The text emphasizes the need for caution when applying DID design with panel data, as violations of key assumptions can lead to biased estimations. Practical recommendations are provided to enhance the rigor of future research using DID design with panel data in the field of international business. [Extracted from the article]

We examine how local air quality shapes firm innovation. Using a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2017, we find significant decreases in R&D expenditure and patents for firms located in cities with severe air pollution. Moreover, we find that firms tend to mitigate the adverse effects of air pollution by shifting innovation activities to their subsidiaries located in areas with better air quality. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the decreases are more pronounced for non-SOEs, financially constrained firms and firms in high-tech industries. We provide causal evidence using the instrumental variable method, a discontinuity regression design, and propensity score matching. Overall, our study highlights that air pollution is an important local environmental factor that affects firm innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debates about grade retention weigh the academic benefits of remediation against its social and psychological costs. Louisiana adopted a retention policy aimed at capturing these benefits while mitigating the harm. It used test score thresholds to distinguish between retention in grade 8, promotion to grade 9, and a grade "8.5" where students would move with their peers to high school (social promotion) but receive 8th grade instruction once there (academic remediation). We use regression discontinuity designs to assess the effects of receiving these placements. By linking students' K-12 and higher education records, we examine educational attainment through high school and college. We find that more retention-oriented placements result in substantially lower educational attainment at each margin: grade 8 versus 8.5, 8.5 versus 9, and 8 versus 9. This suggests negative effects from both grade retention and academic remediation when administered in high school. Notably, these effects extend beyond high school to college enrollment. They do not appear to extend to college persistence or graduation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a new element of the Tiebout process, which is whether Tiebout mobility impacts the organization of residents and firms within a single metropolitan area. Unemployment insurance (UI) is a state-wide policy. We therefore examine whether variation in UI policy outcomes causes firms and residents to alter their locations within the local urban economy. Our empirical process is to use a matching pairs regression discontinuity design based on the nine largest cities where state boundaries cross the metropolitan area. We find that Tiebout mobility results from the UI wage replacement rate, the UI eligibility rate, and UI taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the impact of family-based human capital stemming from a chairperson's having siblings vis-à-vis not having siblings on corporate innovation in Chinese family firms. Using hand-collected data, we document that when a firm has a sibling-chairperson, it holds more patents, receives more total citations to its patents, and has greater innovation efficiency and innovation quality than an otherwise equivalent firm with a chairperson having no siblings. The results are economically significant and robust to a battery of robustness checks. Specifically, the findings remain intact after using China's one-child policy as an exogenous shock to apply a regression discontinuity research design to mitigate endogeneity. Additional analyses suggest that the mechanisms behind the impact of siblings on innovation are consistent with family-based human capital embedded in the sibling relationships such as competition, knowledge spillover, and family firm succession effect among siblings. Furthermore, we show that sibling comanagement and sibling gender diversity matter in corporate innovation. In addition, sibling effect enhances corporate investment efficiency, stock returns, and merger and acquisition performance. Overall, family-based human capital from siblings positively contributes to corporate innovation. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: The authors acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72225005 and 72202249] and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [Grant 2022M713658]. Supplemental Material: Data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4965. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public parental leave schemes aim to facilitate women's reconciliation of family and employment after their transition into motherhood. While parental leave policies underwent several reforms over the past decades, adapting to changing female labour market participation and family cultures, the available entitlements are not tailored to women's individual circumstances and needs. It remains unclear how these affect the women's parental leave uptake, particularly the leave length. In this paper, we followed an exploratory and descriptive approach to study the selection of women into different parental leave lengths with changing public parental leave entitlements in Germany and according to their individual characteristics. We use data from the German Statutory Pension Fund on 29,001 women born between 1955 and 1984 who had their first child between 1991 and 2016 at the ages 20–39. We estimate linear regression and discrete-time proportional hazard models to examine associations between women's characteristics and their length of leave. We identify the effects of two major parental leave reforms in Germany in 1992 and 2007 in a Regression Discontinuity Design. Our results show that the general extension of available parental leave entitlements in 1992 increased the likelihood of women's parental leave uptake between 25 and 36 months. For women who became mothers at an older age, had a high income before transitioning into motherhood, or with higher education; however, the likelihood of parental leave uptake of 2 months increased. The reform of 2007 led to an increased likelihood of leave uptake longer than 2 months for these women. These findings suggest that women with a higher labour market attachment have responded more strongly to the changes in parental leave benefits in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is a book review of "Telling Stories with Data: With Application in R" by Rohan Alexander. The book focuses on data science workflow and provides examples tailored for social science applications. It covers various aspects of data analysis, including data acquisition, preparation, modeling, and communication. The book emphasizes reproducibility, ethical issues, and the human element in data projects. While the examples are primarily focused on social science, the book offers comprehensive code recipes that can be adapted to different projects. It also highlights the importance of documentation, reproducibility, and responsible data practices. However, it does not extensively cover storytelling techniques or data communication for different formats and audiences. Overall, the book is a valuable resource for R users interested in social science applications. [Extracted from the article]

We evaluate a place‐based policy aimed at commercial service providers. In 2016, the Swedish government introduced special operating support for grocery stores in remote rural areas to slow down the process of store closures. We estimate the local causal effect in a regression discontinuity design framework using the fact that only stores located at least 15 km away from another store were eligible for the support. The results indicate a 15%–20% increase in store survival rates due to the support. For surviving stores, the effects on employment are negative, possibly due to labor‐saving investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThe Belt and Road (B&R) policy is a region-oriented economic policy implemented by the Chinese government since 2010, involving the largest population and covering the largest area in the world. Whether it can significantly narrow the income gap between Han and ethnic minority residents has not been investigated in the literature. To avoid endogenous problems in the model, we used the spatial breakpoint regression method to investigate 2,037 county-level administrative regions in China from 2014 to 2021 and empirically evaluated the impact of the policy on the income gap between Han and ethnic minority residents. Results show that, compared to the counties without B&R policy, the average income gap between minority counties with B&R and Han has increased by 1.468–1.518 times, which was nearly 1.3 times the sample mean of survey data, indicating that the income gap has been widened significantly by B&R. However, the policy has a narrowing effect on the income gap between minorities and Han in the 20% sample with the widest income gap between minorities and Han. From the dynamic effect of years, with the effect of B&R, the income gap between minorities and Han is an inverted U-shaped curve, first increasing and then decreasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Early school leaving (ESL) is considered one of the most serious problems in the functioning of European education systems. In particular, Spain has traditionally exhibited one of the largest ESL rates in Europe. This study aimed to shed light on the role of the month of birth as a factor conditioning the probability of ESL. Using high‐quality census data and a regression discontinuity design, we documented that Spanish males from lower social strata born before the school‐entry cut‐off are substantially more likely to be observed as early school leavers than their counterparts born after that date. We do not find such effect among females or males from other social strata. Overall, educational policy should target more seriously the inequalities associated with the month of birth as they do not vanish before affecting relevant decisions such as leaving education early, at least for males from lower social strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are highly popular in economic research because of their strong internal validity and straightforward intuition. While RD estimates are local in nature, several recent articles propose methods that generalize RD estimates to units outside a small neighborhood of the cutoff. In this article, I introduce the getaway package, which implements the method proposed by Angrist and Rokkanen (2015, Journal of the American Statistical Association 110: 1331-1344) to extrapolate treatment-effect estimates "away from the cutoff", relying on a classical unconfoundedness condition. Additionally, the package features a data-driven algorithm designed to identify a set of covariates that fulfills the unconfoundedness assumption. It also incorporates a toolkit intended for testing and visualization purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students born in the days before the school-entry cutoff date are one year younger at school entry than their counterparts born in the days following the cutoff, which causes an achievement gap between the youngest and oldest students within each cohort. I assess this so-called relative age effect in the Spanish context, where the school-entry rule is strictly enforced. By means of a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design, I report a remarkable effect in fourth grade that is still visible in eighth grade. The heterogeneity of the effect by social origin and gender is explored. Following the compensatory advantage model, I reason that the relative age effect should be smaller among high-SES students when assessing academic outcomes that might endanger the probability of attaining higher education (such as repetition), but not for low-stakes external examinations. I confirm this expectation. As for gender, I argue that the relative age effect might be lower among girls either because younger girls are not ever affected by their birth month or because they are better able to catch up with their older peers than boys. I provide evidence supporting this second hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how paid maternity leave (ML) impacted fertility and mothers' labor force participation in Romania. The ML gives mothers the right to paid leave until the child turns one year old, and it offers 65 % of monthly income before birth. I examine the effects of this policy change using a regression discontinuity design and census data. I show that mothers who are eligible for ML are 2.5 percentage-points more likely to have an additional child than those ineligible. The effect is persistent for seven years after the policy was implemented. I find no significant results regarding the mother's labor force participation. These results have important implications regarding the shrinking working-age population and the ability to fund benefits programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many developing countries, poor households face multiple shocks that disrupt their consumption patterns and lead to an increased welfare loss. Consequently, households adopt coping mechanisms that negatively impact their overall well-being. While social safety nets have been implemented to protect vulnerable households, it is essential to assess their overall effectiveness, both in terms of their impact and their potential to replace the harmful coping strategies adopted by households. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of cash transfers provided by the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) on the consumption patterns of households in Pakistan, with a particular emphasis on how these transfers provide consumption insurance to ultra-poor families encountered with idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. The study analyzes both food and non-food expenditure to gain insights into the effectiveness of the program in providing economic security to vulnerable households. Using three rounds of the BISP survey (2011–2013–2016), the empirical analysis is done by employing regression discontinuity design (RDD), difference-in-difference (DID) technique, and ordinary least squares method. Using the DID approach, we find that from 2011 to 2016 the overall food and non-food consumption of BISP beneficiaries have increased considerably and these results are highly significant as well. However, the estimates for RDD are not significant for the years 2013 and 2016. We also observed households' consumption behavior in the presence of shocks and found that in the wake of idiosyncratic shocks, poor households can protect their consumption through informal transfer mechanisms by securing loans from family, friends, and landlords. However, this mechanism collapses when households encounter covariate shocks. Furthermore, BISP cash transfers are primarily effective in mitigating the impact of employment loss, loss of livestock, and the rise in food prices and remain inadequate in providing insurance against major other shocks encountered by the targeted poor households. The results indicate that BISP has the potential to substitute informal coping strategies used by the poor, it requires substantial transfers to offer comprehensive consumption insurance to the poorest of the poor in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem definition: Gift card promotions offer a tiered incentive (a gift card) to customers for purchasing regularly-priced products, with higher expenditure receiving a larger incentive. We empirically investigate the impact of gift card promotions on customer purchase behavior by collaborating with a major U.S.-based department store that targets gift card promotion emails on its online channel. Methodology/results: We use a collection of discontinuities in the retailer's targeting policies and corresponding fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to estimate localized causal effects of the gift card promotion. We find that gift card promotion provided to customers whose most recent purchase was 4 and 13 months ago, respectively, increased their purchase probability by 11.24% and 26.64%, and their average expenditure by 9.53% and 1.9%, respectively. Overall, the gift card promotion generated, on average, $100K in incremental sales per promotion from these customers alone. Furthermore, the promotion induced customers to seek out products from niche categories and increased spending on high-end brands. Gift card promotion emails also had a dominant advertisement effect, that is, customers who received the gift card promotion email increased expenditure even if they did not participate in the promotion. Managerial implications: (i) Gift card promotions are a viable strategy to boost short-term sales and to alter the distribution of the types (brand, category) of purchased products. (ii) Retailers should optimize gift card promotion tiers based on the tradeoff between increased customer expenditure and promotion expenses and consider the advertisement effect when targeting the promotion emails. (iii) Contrary to popular belief, retailers benefit from customers' redeeming gift cards because they spend more due to the gift card, validating the dual value of the delayed incentive. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0218. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests for potential cross-border substitution in casino gambling between Illinois and Missouri due to the launch of sports betting in Illinois. Using casino-level gambling revenue and admissions data, difference-in-differences, event study analysis, and regression discontinuity design, our findings suggest that the launch of sports betting increased casino revenues and admissions in the Illinois casinos and decreased revenue and admissions in Missouri casinos close to the border of Illinois and Missouri. Thus, Missouri not only lost potential sports betting tax revenue but also tax revenue from casino gambling revenue and admissions resulting from cross-border substitution between Missouri and Illinois after the launch of sports betting. The size of the lost casino and foregone sports betting tax revenues suggests Missouri and other states in similar circumstances are likely to experience continued fiscal pressure to legalize sports betting despite possible moral objections or an intent to minimize social costs through prohibition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether state and local political leaders' partisan affiliations affect economic freedom at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level. Because political leaders' partisan affiliations likely correlate with unobserved state- and local-level characteristics that also affect the economic freedom levels of MSAs, we use a regression discontinuity design that leverages close elections as natural experiments to identify a causal effect. Using Stansel (2019)'s index, which aggregates a bundle of policies into a single measure of economic freedom, we find that close Republican majorities in the lower State House increase overall MSA-level economic freedom. This effect is realized through consistent governments (i.e., Republican governor and Republican State House majority) and primarily through changes in labor market policy. At the city level, Republican mayors also increase overall MSA-level economic freedom levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of village fund (VF) transfers on rural welfare in Indonesia. We use the monthly night-time light (NTL) dataset as a proxy for rural welfare for around 75,000 villages from 2014 to 2019. Using Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT), we find that VF positively impacts rural welfare, as the value of Average Light Intensity (ALI) increases by almost 97% after the implementation of VF. The highest influence of VF transfers is revealed to be in underdeveloped villages. This indicates preliminary evidence of regional convergence, where poor villages grow faster than developed villages. In addition to the RDiT, the Difference in Difference (DiD) estimations show that the rural welfare of villages that received VF early in 2015 was 19% higher than those without VF in 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban Policy in all natural forests (CCLBP) as the strictest forest conservation measure brings uncertainty to the income of farmers engaged in forest land management. Therefore, clarifying the impact and heterogeneity of the CCLBP on farmers' income has become a significant issue of current concern. Based on county-level panel data from China covering the period 2000–2020, this study uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to identify the impact of the CCLBP on farmers' income. The empirical results show that (1) the CCLBP has a significantly positive effect on farmers' income, with the policy leading to an increase in farmers' income of approximately RMB 411–582; (2) the impact of the CCLBP on farmers' income exhibits regional heterogeneity, with significant positive effects observed in Hebei, Shandong, Hubei, and Shaanxi, significant negative effects observed in Guangxi, and insignificant effects observed in other provinces; and (3) the CCLBP not only promotes the development of non-agricultural industries and labor mobility but also effectively reduces capital outflow, thereby increasing farmers' income. This study contributes to the understanding of the underlying mechanisms between the CCLBP and farmers' income, and it has significant practical implications for promoting the increase in farmers' income, narrowing the income gap among farmers, and achieving common prosperity. It can also provide valuable insights and guidance for global forest protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether informative feedback on consumption can nudge water saving. We launched a five-month online information campaign which involved around 1,000 households located in the province of Milan (Italy) with a smart meter. A group of households received monthly reports via email on their per capita daily average water consumption, including a social comparison component. The Intention to Treat (ITT) analysis shows that, compared to a benchmark group, the units exposed to the intervention reduced their per capita water consumption by around 6% (25.8 liters per day or 6.8 gallons). Being able to observe the email opening rate, we find that the ITT effect is mainly driven by complying units. Through an Instrumental Variable approach, we estimated a Local Average Treatment Effect equal to 54.9 liters per day of water saving. A further Regression Discontinuity Design analysis shows that different feedback on consumption class size differentially affected water saving at the margin. We also found that the additional water saving increased with the number of monthly reports, though it did not persist two months after the campaign expired. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of agriculture in the socio-economic development is undeniable and is truly an important part of the Philippine economy. It is also a major source of livelihood and employment of most Filipinos especially in the rural areas. The general intent of this study is to evaluate the impact of the government agricultural intervention on selected upland communities in Goa, Camarines Sur especially on the far-flung barangays of the municipality using Regression Discontinuity Design. This study assessed the socio-economic and poverty status of the local farmers through the agricultural interventions received. The results showed that the distribution of seeds, fertilizers and cash assistance to the upland farmers could improve the overall outputs of the farmers, which can help alleviate their lives. Similarly, the agricultural interventions of the government have great and positive impact to alleviate poverty and improve the quality of life of the local farmers. However, irrigation and farm-to-market roads need to be prioritized to ensure that agricultural production output increase.

While myopia adversely impacts children's quality of life and human capital development, little attention has been paid to how children cope with it when they become aware of their myopic status. This study estimates the effects of myopia awareness on children's screen time, including television viewing time and Internet surfing time, the reduction of which is medically recommended to safeguard child vision. Based on data from a large-scale survey of middle-school students, the China Education Panel Survey, we exploit the jump in the likelihood of myopia awareness at the threshold for myopia diagnosis. Our fuzzy regression discontinuity analysis reveals that around the normal-vision cut-off, students who are aware of themselves being myopic spent significantly less time watching television (by 0.24–0.30 hours/day on weekdays and 0.28–0.40 hours/day on weekends) and surfing the Internet (by 0.11–0.14 hours/day on weekdays) than those unaware. Further explorations reveal that these behavioural changes are mostly self-motivated, as students' awareness of myopia did not lead to stricter parental control over their screen time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article revisits the paper "The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam" written by Dell, Lane, and Querubin in 2018. The 2018 paper investigates the role of historical state on long-run economic performance in Vietnam. The authors use a historical border in Vietnam, which was in place following the 1698 event and separated two regions: Dai Viet to the north and Khmer to the south. With distinct institutional characteristics on the two border sides, the historical division is said to lead to persistent differences in economic and social outcomes. This article disputes some aspects of the core assumption in their analysis, including the shape and dynamics of the 1698 border, and replicates the statistical outcomes. Results suggest that historical state plays little to no role in determining the social and economic differences among the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the causal effect of foreign aid on income distribution. We rely upon the fact that, starting from 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association has been according partly to whether a country' per capita income is below a certain threshold, enabling a regression discontinuity design. The empirical evidence demonstrates that for those countries receiving foreign aids, their income distribution is significantly improved. In addition, we show that foreign aid lowers income inequality possibly through boosting income shares held by the lower 80% at the expense of decreasing income share held by the highest 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing theories offer conflicting perspectives regarding the relationship between career specialization and labor market outcomes. While some scholars argue it is better for workers to specialize and focus on one area, others argue it is advantageous for workers to diversify and compile experience across multiple work domains. We attempt to reconcile these competing perspectives by developing a theory highlighting the voluntary versus involuntary nature of worker–firm separations as a theoretical contingency that alters the relative advantages and disadvantages associated with specialized versus generalized careers. Our theory is rooted in the notion that the characteristics of involuntary worker–firm separations (i.e., job displacement) simultaneously amplify the disadvantages associated with specialized careers and the advantages associated with generalized careers, thereby giving displaced generalists a relative advantage over displaced specialists. We find support for our theory in the context of U.S. congressional staffing, using administrative employment records and a regression discontinuity identification strategy that exploits quasi-random staffer displacement resulting from narrowly decided congressional reelection bids. Our theoretical contingency is further supported in supplemental regressions where correlational evidence suggests that while specialists tend to be relatively penalized in the labor market after involuntary separations, specialists appear to be relatively privileged when separations are plausibly voluntary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Introduction The health impact of retirement is controversial. Most previous studies have been based on self-reported health indicators or the endpoints of some chronic diseases (e.g., morbidity or mortality), but objective physiological indicators (e.g., blood pressure) have rarely been used. The objective of this study is to elucidate the health effects of retirement on blood pressure, thereby offering empirical evidence to facilitate the health of retirees and to optimize retirement policies. Methods From 2012 to 2015, 84,696 participants of the Chinese Hypertension Survey (CHS) were included in this study. We applied the fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRDD) to identify retirement’s causal effect on systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and pulse pressure. We also explored the heterogeneity in the effects of retirement across different sex and education level groups. Results Based on the fully adjusted model, we estimated that retirement increased SBP by 5.047 mm Hg (95% CI: -2.628-12.723, P value: 0.197), DBP by 0.614 mm Hg (95% CI: -3.879-5.108, P value: 0.789) and pulse pressure by 4.433 mm Hg (95% CI: -0.985-9.851, P value: 0.109). We found that retirement led to a significant increase in male participants’ SBP and pulse pressure as well as a possible decrease in female participants’ blood pressure. Additionally, the blood pressure levels of low-educated participants were more vulnerable to the shock of retirement. Conclusion Retirement is associated with an increase in blood pressure level. There is a causal relationship between the increase in blood pressure levels of men and retirement. Policy-makers should pay extra attention to the health status of men and less educated people when adjusting retirement policies in the future.

This study employs a regression discontinuity design to systematically examine the governance effect of bike-sharing on urban traffic congestion, utilizing city-level data from Beijing, Shanghai, and Wuhan in China between 2016 and 2018. We discover that the introduction of bike-sharing services significantly mitigates traffic congestion in the short term. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that the initial deployment of shared bicycles primarily alleviates urban congestion, while additional deployments have a limited impact. Further, mechanism test analysis demonstrates that bike-sharing leads to increased metro ridership in these cities, effectively explaining the reduction in road congestion. This study underscores the pivotal role of bike-sharing services in easing urban traffic congestion and provides vital policy insights for enhancing traffic management strategies in Chinese cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate whether retirement makes people more risk averse. • Males become more risk averse after retirement, while females do not. • Households tend to get less involved in the stock market when male heads retire but exhibit no such pattern when female heads retire. • The decrease in the risk attitude can be largely accounted for by the decline in income. We investigate whether retirement makes people more risk averse. Using a nationally representative household survey dataset from urban China, we adopt a local randomization regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effect of retirement on risk attitudes. We find that males become more risk averse after they have retired while females do not; consistently, households tend to participate less in the stock market and invest a lower fraction of financial assets in stocks when their male heads retire but exhibit no such patterns when female heads retire. Therefore, the impact of retirement on risk attitudes exhibits significant gender heterogeneity. Pathway analyses suggest that the decrease in risk taking is largely driven by the decline in income flow after retirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Western democracies, like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the number of ethnic minority representatives has been steadily increasing. How is this trend shaping electoral behavior? Past work has focused on the effects of minority representation on ethnic minorities' political engagement, with less attention to the electoral behavior of majority-group members. We argue that increased minorities' representation can be experienced as a threat to a historically white-dominant political context. This, in turn, politically activates white constituents. Using data from four U.K. general elections and a regression discontinuity design, we find that the next election's turnout in constituencies narrowly won by an ethnic minority candidate is 4.3 percentage points larger than in constituencies narrowly won by a white candidate. Consistent with our argument, this turnout difference is driven by majority-white constituencies. Our findings have implications for intergroup relations and party politics and help explain recent political dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates how the tax simplification program in Indonesia affects tax compliance among small businesses, by employing a regression discontinuity design and examining various parameters of tax compliance. The results indicate that tax simplification does not significantly influence tax payment behaviour. However, it does have a positive effect on overall tax compliance, demonstrated by more frequent reporting and fewer penalties imposed. Analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects reveals considerable variation across geographic areas and internet access levels. Taxpayers in areas with decent internet access and near a tax office appear to benefit more from the program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Round-number focal points are important to determine the outcome of negotiations, and the anchoring effect may matter disproportionately whether a listing price reached a round-number threshold. By applying regression discontinuity design method, we find that listing prices under a round-number focal point sell less than the houses list above the threshold. The effect is more pronounced in houses with greater uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how unemployment insurance generosity impacts reemployment and economic precarity by family type. With Swiss longitudinal administrative data and a regression discontinuity design using potential benefit duration, we examine differences between single households and primary and secondary or equal earners, as well as differences by gender and presence of children. Less generous unemployment insurance (shorter potential benefit duration) speeds up reemployment for all family types during the period with benefit cuts whereas longer-term effects are stronger for single households, secondary and equal earners, and those without children. Economic precarity increases for singles, single-parents, and primary earners during the period with lower benefits though there are no long-term effects. We argue that those with higher financial responsibility (i.e., primary earners or those with children) face pressure to find jobs irrespective of benefit generosity whereas those with lower financial responsibility (i.e., secondary or equal earners and those without children) have more capacity to react. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macrolevel have found a positive short‐term effect of the pandemic on the fertility level in Norway, but women's fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020, as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women's fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economically and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women's work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic‐related measures taken by the Norwegian government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To estimate the effect of antenatal corticosteroids on newborn respiratory morbidity in twins. Design: Regression discontinuity applied to population‐based birth registry data. Setting: British Columbia, Canada, 2008–2018. Population: Twin pregnancies admitted for birth between 31+0 and 36+6 weeks of gestation. Methods: During our study period, Canadian clinical practice guidelines recommended antenatal corticosteroid administration for imminent preterm birth up to 33+6 weeks. We used a logistic model to compare the predicted risks of our outcomes among pregnancies admitted for birth immediately before this clinical cut‐point (higher probability of exposure to antenatal corticosteroids) versus immediately after it (lower probability). Main outcome measures: Our primary outcome was a composite of newborn respiratory distress or in‐hospital death. Our secondary outcome was a composite of newborn respiratory intervention or in‐hospital death. Results: Among 2524 pregnancies (5035 liveborn twins), 47% of admissions before 34+0 weeks of gestation were exposed to antenatal corticosteroids but only 4.2% of admissions after this cut‐point were exposed. The risk of newborn respiratory distress or in‐hospital mortality increased abruptly at 34+0 weeks, corresponding to a protective effect of treatment (risk ratio [RR] 0.69, 95% CI 0.53–0.90; risk difference [RD] −12 cases per 100 births, 95% CI −20 to −4.1). There was no clear evidence for or against an effect on newborn respiratory intervention or in‐hospital death (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70–1.13; RD −4.2 per 100, 95% CI −13 to +4.2). Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence for the effectiveness of antenatal corticosteroids in preventing adverse newborn respiratory outcomes in twins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How horizontal stratification in education influences marriage expectations is less known. Using data from the 2009 Beijing College Students Panel Survey and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, this study examines whether university quality impacts students' intended age at marriage. Results show that attending a tier 1 university, relative to a tier 2 university, delays a students' intended age at marriage by around 12 months in China. This delaying effect is estimated to take place through different romantic cultural resources and career resources universities provide. The findings demonstrate the causal effect of horizontal stratification in higher education on college students' marriage plans. What postpones their marriage plans is not only university attendance but also which university to attend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is uncertain whether the effects of health counselling programs differ depending on their intensity. This study compared the effectiveness of intensive health guidance (IHG) and less intensive motivation-enhancing guidance (MEG) on cardiovascular risk factors. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) was applied. In Japan's specific health checkup (SHC) and guidance program, those with a high risk of metabolic syndrome are assigned to IHG or MEG. An RDD was applied using an SHC results database. Four groups were created in which IHG or MEG assignment was solely determined by single cut-off values of the running variables of triglycerides (TGs), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting blood glucose (FBG), or haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measured during SHC. Outcomes were one year's changes in body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WCF), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, FBG, and HbA1c. A total of 541,809 observations among 225,115 people from 2008 to 2017 were analysed. Men assigned to IHG had a significantly but slightly lower BMI and WCF than those assigned to MEG the next year, only when TG or FBG was a running variable. There were no significant differences between IHG and MEG for women's BMI and WCF and other cardiovascular risk factors for both sexes. Since IHG has limited additional effects on cardiovascular risk factors compared with MEG, abolishing IHG may have little negative impact on the general public's health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]