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The purpose of this paper is to analyze regional business cycle movements in Japan. We construct regional monthly composite indexes by 47 prefectures over the period 1985–2010. In order to characterize the deviation of regional economies from the nationwide economy, we propose a method to match each prefectural composite index sequence to the national composite index sequence. High performance of the matching analysis indicates that regional deviations involve leads and lags in both the timing of the business cycle and time trends, although certain disparities remain for some prefectures. The analysis also suggests that there is a structural change between the post-bubble era of the 1990s and the long expansion phase of 2002–2008. Only a limited number of prefectures show better performance than the national average, while the majority tend to fall behind during the expansion phase. Also, we investigate the factors that exert influence on prefectural economies, and find that fiscal and monetary measures possibly help stimulate regional economies., JEL classification: E32, R11

This paper investigates the extent and determinants of business cycle synchronization among the US states during the period 2002–11. Phase synchronization is not measured based on one national reference series, but rather is assessed using pairwise synchronization indicators computed over the business cycles of all US state pairs. The analysis is based on a natural and intuitive measure of synchronization: the fraction of observations when the cyclical phase is the same for both states in each state pair. Synchronization indicators have a spatially correlated structure. The economic determinants of synchronization are studied using spatial econometric models. Business cycles are more synchronized between those states characterized by strong commercial links and a similar structure in terms of industrialization, labour market characteristics and openness.

RESUMEN: El objetivo de este trabajo ha sido analizar el grado de sincronismo entre el ciclo económico de la Región de Magallanes respecto del ciclo económico nacional para el período 1985-2010. Para determinar el ciclo económico se ha usado el procedimiento de Harding y Pagan (2002) y medido el sincronismo con el índice de contingencia de Pearson. Nuestros resultados muestran evidencia de diferentes grados de sincronismo entre los ciclos económicos regionales respecto del ciclo económico nacional, destacando la región de Magallanes por su menor y mayor volatilidad de su crecimiento económico y por presentar un bajo grado de sincronismo entre su ciclo económico y el ciclo económico nacional, como también con los ciclos de las demás regiones. ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to analyze the degree of synchronism between the economic cycle of the Magallanes Region and the national economic cycle for the period 1985-2010. To determine the business cycle has been used the Harding and Pagan (2002) procedure and the synchronization with the Pearson contingency index has been measured. Our results show evidence of different degrees of synchronism between the regional business cycles with respect to the national business cycle, highlighting the region of Magallanes due to its lower and greater volatility of economic growth, and to present a low degree of synchronism between its business cycle and the national business cycle, as well as with the cycles of the other regions.

Chaotic itinerancy is complex behavior in high-dimensional dynamical systems characterized by itinerant motion among many different ordered states through chaotic transition. In this study, we robustly observe this behavior in a model of regional business cycles, in which all regions are homogeneous and connected through producers' adaptive behavior based on global information. Although producers adjust their output quite slowly toward the average level announced by the government, regional business cycles begin to synchronize due to the entrainment effect. Moreover, the economy is more likely to exhibit chaotic itinerancy when the producers emphasize the expected-profit-maximization and when they adjust their expectations more slowly toward the average. It is also clarified that behind the dynamics of chaotic itinerancy exist cycles among periodic orbits with different unstable directions, which is called unstable dimension variability.

This study represents a first attempt to empirically analyze the role of firm heterogeneity in regional business cycle behaviour. Working with monthly Italy’s firms data and estimating a random effects ordered probit model, we first document sizable asymmetries in Northern and Southern firms business cycles positively related to the intensity of the national cycle: firms located in the South are more likely to reduce production levels than firms located in the North in periods of business cycle expansion and vice versa. Then, we explore the role of sectoral mix and several firm-specific factors (firm size, export propensity, liquidity constraints, demand conditions, capacity utilization and expectations) in explaining regional disparities in business cycle fluctuations. Results suggest that North-South differences in sectoral composition do not help explain the diverging behaviour of Southern firms, while by controlling for firm heterogeneity we are able to capture large part of regional business cycles differences. JEL codes: D21, E32, R10 Keywords: Regional business cycle, firm heterogeneity, random effects ordered probit

application/pdf, Chaotic itinerancy is complex behavior in high-dimensional dynamical systems characterized by itinerant motion among many different ordered states through chaotic transition. In this study, we robustly observe this behavior in a model of regional business cycles, in which all regions are homogeneous and connected through producers' expectations. Although producers adjust price and output expectations quite slowly toward the average level announced by the government, regional business cycles begin to synchronize from the entrainment effect. Moreover, the economy is more likely to exhibit chaotic itinerancy when the producers emphasize the expected profit maximization and when they adjust their expectations slowly toward the average

The purpose of this paper is to analyze regional business cycle movements in Japan. We construct regional monthly composite indexes by 47 prefectures over the period 1985-2010. In order to characterize the deviation of regional economies from the nationwide economy, we propose a method to match each prefectural composite index sequence to the national composite index sequence. High performance of the matching analysis indicates that regional deviations involve leads and lags in both the timing of the business cycle and time trends, although certain disparities remain for some prefectures. The analysis also suggests that there is a structural change between the post-bubble era of the 1990s and the long expansion phase of 2002-2008. Only a limited number of prefectures show better performance than the national average, while the majority tend to fall behind during the expansion phase. Also, we investigate the factors that exert influence on prefectural economies, and find that fiscal and monetary measures possibly help stimulate regional economies.

Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to financial markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in which small firms account for a large share of output. In addition, better access of small firms to credit markets in the wake of state-level banking deregulation during the 1980s seems to have loosened the dependence of aggregate risk sharing on the business cycle. Not only do our result support that better access to credit markets may have made it easier for the owners of small firms to smooth income in the face of adverse cash-flows shocks to their business. They also suggest an additional welfare benefit from banking deregulation: access to financial markets has become more reliable and is more easily available when households and firms need it most urgently - in economic downturns. A possible implication of these findings is that the welfare costs of a monetary tightening could have been substantially reduced as a result of the financial liberalization at the state level.