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The yield curve disinverted this week, suggesting an economic recession may be near. Historically, yield curve disinversions have preceded every economic recession since 1976. Investors are reacting by selling stocks, [...]

The Federal Reserve plans to ease policy to prevent a US recession amid rising unemployment. Historically, rate cuts have often failed to prevent recessions, with 80% leading to downturns. Experts [...]

Recession risk in the US is rising, says economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. Rosenberg's analysis shows 45% of recession indicators have been triggered, up from 10% in 2022. He [...]

The Perkins Rule suggests a recession is imminent when monthly payrolls decline. Unlike other indicators, the Perkins Rule focuses solely on negative monthly payroll reports. The US economy continues to [...]

A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job vacancy [...]

Byline: Tim Boreham Only a handful of days or so ago investors were fretting about the prospect of interest rates not falling as soon - or as far - as [...]

Investors are de-risking portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock market sell-off. Weak economic data, including a surge in unemployment, has fueled recession concerns. Traders are responding by piling into [...]

The US economy will avoid a recession due to AI, immigration, and high-income consumers, said Michael Arone. AI will boost productivity and immigration will dampen inflation, the State Street investment [...]

For the past 18 months, Americans have been living with anxiety over the possibility that we will enter a recession. Apprehension is only heightened by predictions that seesaw between 'certain' [...]

Trump's vows to carry out a major deportation campaign is a stagflationary threat, Adam Posen told Bloomberg TV. The think tank expert says this would lead to a manufacturing-centered recession. [...]

The Fed should be more worried about sparking a recession than rampant inflation, Mohamed El-Erian said. The top economist estimated there was a 35% chance the US economy could enter [...]

A recession isn't going to materialize for the US economy, Steve Eisman said. 'The Big Short' investor thinks the US economy is on solid footing. That's evidenced by the enthusiasm [...]

Byline: Graeme Roberts May 2024 saw a “relentless” dip in new vehicle registrations, perpetuating an ongoing decline,” according to the Motor Industry Association (MIA). Recommended Buyer's Guides * Buyer's Guide [...]

A majority of Americans polled by Harris believe the US is already in an economic recession. About half of Americans polled also believe the S&P 500 is down this year [...]

The US economy and stock market are on a clear path to recession, according to Paul Dietrich. The B. Riley Wealth Management CIO pointed to a handful of warning signs [...]

The bond market's famous recession gauge has been flashing for 18 months. A downturn could be delayed for months after the yield curve first inverts, Paul Dietrich said. He predicted [...]

A recession has been avoided so far for three key reasons, economist David Rosenberg said. Low levels of debt refinancing have blunted the impact of Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, consumers [...]

Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. Ned Davis Research said its Recession Probability Model has plunged to 2%, suggesting 'minimal odds' [...]

A handful of indicators suggest a hard landing is on the way, top economist David Rosenberg warned. A famed recession indicator in the job market is flashing levels similar to [...]

Strong economic data has cut the chance of an economic downturn in the next year to 33%, according to Bankrate. Economists credit robust consumer spending for boosting the strength of [...]

Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. US factory activity expanded in March for the first time since September 2022. JPMorgan [...]

The Fed's interest rate forecasts signal an imminent recession, economist David Rosenberg says. In previous soft landings, the Fed usually cut rates by 75 basis points, but they're forecasting a [...]

A recession is four times more likely to happen than an expansion, says economist David Rosenberg. Real retail sales and industrial production are flagging, a key signal a recession is [...]

There's a reason governments spend so many taxpayer dollars digging their economies out of recessions. Families lose their homes. Children go malnourished. New grads spend years struggling to get their [...]

The S&P 500 could crash 49% when valuations normalize and a recession hits, Paul Dietrich said. B. Riley Wealth's chief strategist flagged market and economic indicators that are flashing red. [...]

The odds of a recession are 'very high' in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. The chief economist of SMBC Nikko pointed to a number recession warnings flashing in the [...]

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Edwards sounded the alarm for a potential downturn, pointing to signs of weakness in the US economy. [...]

March 8, 2024 The United States appears to have avoided a recession following the swift rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. In their latest projections, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), [...]

Defiant consumer spending has helped the US economy dodge a recession. Yet consumers are saving less, raiding their piggy banks, and racking up record credit-card debt. Experts say their spending [...]

A recession will hit in 2024, according to Paul Dietrich, chief investment strategist of B. Riley. Even a mild recession could spark as much as a 40% stock crash, Dietrich [...]

Byline: TBM Staff - Mumbai The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the three months leading up to December 2023, slipping into a recession in the second half of the [...]

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist said. The economic data, while strong on the surface, is actually hinting at signs [...]

The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs as markets have shrugged off economic fears. Some top investors and economists are still warning stocks will drop and a recession will [...]

The S&P 500 may be headed for a 30% crash, a legendary market forecaster has warned. Gary Shilling said stocks are 'very expensive and very distorted,' and likely to disappoint [...]

The inverted yield curve means that a recession is still likely, the indicator's inventor wrote this week. However, excessive labor demand, a stronger housing market, are factors that will dampen [...]

There's a recession looming that threatens to hammer stocks, David Rosenberg says. The veteran economist said the potential sell-off makes 2022's decline look like an 'appetizer.' Labor hoarding and debt-fueled [...]

Byline: Joanne Friedrick The probability of a recession continues to decline with a clear majority of panelists from the National Assn. for Business Economics(NABE) putting the likelihood of recession in [...]

Wall Street is largely upbeat about the coming year, but there's still a solid bear case for markets and the economy. Downside risks include a recession surprise and a wobbling [...]

David Rosenberg, an economist who called the 2008 recession, says stocks will face weakness ahead. Rosenberg's US equity model is at its lowest possible level, he showed in notes this [...]

Federal Reserve officials seemed to have stopped talking about recession as the threat has faded. The r-word doesn't appear in the minutes from the central bank's last three meetings. Slowing [...]

Recession deniers are repeating mistakes from the dot-com and housing bubbles, David Rosenberg says. They're ignoring the inverted yield curve, shrinking money supply, and leading indicators, he says. The economist [...]