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Objective There is an unmet need for therapies that target the underlying pathophysiology of osteoarthritis (OA). However, defining appropriate measures for clinical trials of such therapies is challenging. Our objective is to propose concept clinical endpoints that directly capture clinical benefit in this setting and evaluate the feasibility of their use. Methods This analysis used the multi-center, longitudinal, observational Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) database. OAI participants primarily had knee OA, with follow-up of up to nine years and assessments of joints, surgical interventions, performance outcomes, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). We examined this dataset to identify existing outcome measures of direct clinical benefit. We evaluated the feasibility of conducting trials using these candidate endpoints by estimating incidence rates and resulting required sample sizes and study durations in time-to-event analyses. Results We identified candidate endpoints based on total knee replacement (TKR) and composite endpoints defined by TKR and conservative thresholds of PROs of pain and function. Using time to TKR as an endpoint, a study with an average follow-up time of three years requires approximately 3,000 to 18,000 subjects depending on effect size. Alternatively, a composite endpoint such as 'time to TKR or severe pain or severely impaired functioning', the required sample sizes ranged from approximately 2,000 to 11,000 for a three-year study. Conclusion The proposed concept endpoints can reliably and feasibly evaluate effectiveness of therapies for this unmet need. In particular, the composite endpoint approach can substantially reduce sample sizes (up to approximately 40%) compared to the use of TKR alone.

A fully powered randomized controlled cancer trial can be challenging to conduct in children because of difficulties in enrollment of pediatric patients due to low disease incidence. One way to improve the feasibility of trials in pediatric patients, when clinically appropriate, is through borrowing information from comparable external adult trials in the same disease. Bayesian analysis of a pediatric trial provides a way of seamlessly augmenting pediatric trial efficacy data with data from external adult trials. However, not all external adult trial subjects may be equally clinically relevant with respect to the baseline disease severity, prognostic factors, co-morbidities, and prior therapy observed in the pediatric trial of interest. The propensity score matching method provides a way of matching the external adult subjects to the pediatric trial subjects on a set of clinically determined baseline covariates, such as baseline disease severity, prognostic factors and prior therapy. The matching then allows Bayesian information borrowing from only the most clinically relevant external adult subjects. Through a case study in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we examine the utility of propensity score matched mixture and power priors in bringing appropriate external adult efficacy information into pediatric trial efficacy assessment, and present considerations for scaling fixed borrowing from external adult data.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize proceedings of a workshop convened to discuss the current state of science in the disease of osteoarthritis (OA), identify the knowledge gaps, and examine the developmental and regulatory challenges in bringing these products to market. DESIGN: Summary of the one-day workshop held virtually on June 22nd, 2021. RESULTS: Speakers selected by the Planning Committee presented data on the current approach to assessment of OA therapies, biomarkers in OA drug development, and the assessment of disease progression and long-term benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Demonstrated by numerous failed clinical trials, OA is a challenging disease for which to develop therapeutics. The challenge is magnified by the slow time of onset of disease and the need for clinical trials of long duration and/or large sample size to demonstrate the effect of an intervention. The OA science community, including academia, pharmaceutical companies, regulatory agencies, and patient communities, must continue to develop and test better clinical endpoints that meaningfully reflect disease modification related to long-term patient benefit.

The use of extrapolation of efficacy in pediatric drug development programs is possible when disease progression and treatment response are similar in adult and pediatric populations. Historically, the exposure-response (E-R) similarity was assessed by visual inspection of 2 E-R curves to support pediatric extrapolation. The aim of this study was to develop a quantitative framework to describe the E-R relationship and the difference in E-R between pediatric and adult patients based on accumulated experience in pediatric drug development programs. Using clinical data for 8 drugs with either a linear or nonlinear E-R relationship, we adapted the methodology used in noninferiority testing to assess the E-R similarity between adult and pediatric patients at the targeted drug exposure. We implemented bootstrap-based and Bayesian-based methodologies to estimate the probability of concluding noninferiority of the E-R relationship. This approach provides objective criteria that can be applied to an assessment of E-R noninferiority in 2 populations to support extrapolation of efficacy in drug development programs from adults to pediatric populations.

Null hypothesis testing is a foundational stone of statistical analysis. The “p-value” has evolved to play a critical role in hypothesis testing. Nonetheless, use of p-values carries with it some c...

Somatic mutations are critical for cancer development and may play a role in age‐related functional decline. Here, we used deep sequencing to analyze the prevalence of somatic mutations during in vitro cell aging. Primary dermal fibroblasts from healthy subjects of young and advanced age, from Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome and from xeroderma pigmentosum complementation groups A and C, were first restricted in number and then expanded in vitro. DNA was obtained from cells pre‐ and post‐expansion and sequenced at high depth (1656× mean coverage), over a cumulative 290 kb target region, including the exons of 44 aging‐related genes. Allele frequencies of 58 somatic mutations differed between the pre‐ and post‐cell culture expansion passages. Mathematical modeling revealed that the frequency change of three of the 58 mutations was unlikely to be explained by genetic drift alone, indicative of positive selection. Two of these three mutations, CDKN2A c.53C>T (T18M) and ERCC8 c.*772T>A, were identified in cells from a patient with XPA. The allele frequency of the CDKN2A mutation increased from 0% to 55.3% with increasing cell culture passage. The third mutation, BRCA2 c.6222C>T (H2074H), was identified in a sample from a healthy individual of advanced age. However, further validation of the three mutations suggests that other unmeasured variants probably provide the selective advantage in these cells. Our results reinforce the notions that somatic mutations occur during aging and that some are under positive selection, supporting the model of increased tissue heterogeneity with increased age.

This paper describes methods used in the project “Orofacial Pain Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment” (OPPERA) and evaluates sociodemographic characteristics associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) in the OPPERA case-control study. Representativeness was investigated by comparing sociodemographic profiles of OPPERA participants with population census profiles of counties near study sites and by comparing age and gender associations with TMD in OPPERA and the 2007 to 2009 US National Health Interview Survey. Volunteers aged 18 to 44 years were recruited at 4 US study sites: 3,263 people without TMD were enrolled into the prospective cohort study; 1,633 of them were selected as controls for the baseline case-control study. Cases were 185 volunteers with examiner-classified TMD. Distributions of some demographic characteristics among OPPERA participants differed from census profiles, although there was less difference in socioeconomic profiles. Odds of TMD was associated with greater age in this 18 to 44 year range; females had 3 times the odds of TMD as males; and relative to non-Hispanic-Whites, other racial groups had one-fifth the odds of TMD. Age and gender associations with chronic TMD were strikingly similar to associations observed in the US population. Assessments of representativeness in this demographically diverse group of community volunteers suggest that OPPERA case-control findings have good internal validity. Perspective Demographic associations with TMD were consistent with population benchmarks and with other studies, suggesting broad applicability of these OPPERA findings. Greater occurrence of TMD in non-Hispanic-Whites than in other racial/ethnic groups and the lack of a socioeconomic gradient contradicts the disparities seen in many other health conditions.

Many studies report that people with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) are more sensitive to experimental pain stimuli than TMD-free controls. Such differences in sensitivity are observed in remote body sites as well as in the orofacial region, suggesting a generalized upregulation of nociceptive processing in TMD cases. This large case-control study of 185 adults with TMD and 1,633 TMD-free controls measured sensitivity to painful pressure, mechanical cutaneous, and heat stimuli, using multiple testing protocols. Based on an unprecedented 36 experimental pain measures, 28 showed statistically significantly greater pain sensitivity in TMD cases than controls. The largest effects were seen for pressure pain thresholds at multiple body sites and cutaneous mechanical pain threshold. The other mechanical cutaneous pain measures and many of the heat pain measures showed significant differences, but with lesser effect sizes. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the pain measures derived from 1,633 controls identified 5 components labeled: 1) heat pain ratings; 2) heat pain aftersensations and tolerance; 3) mechanical cutaneous pain sensitivity; 4) pressure pain thresholds; and 5) heat pain temporal summation. These results demonstrate that compared to TMD-free controls, chronic TMD cases are more sensitive to many experimental noxious stimuli at extracranial body sites, and provide for the first time the ability to directly compare the case-control effect sizes of a wide range of pain sensitivity measures. Perspective This article describes experimental pain sensitivity differences between a large sample of people with chronic TMD and non-TMD controls, using multiple stimulus modalities and measures. Variability in the magnitude and consistency of case-control differences highlight the need to consider multiple testing measures to adequately assess pain processing alterations in chronic pain conditions.