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1. Patterns in avian reproduction in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska, 2003–2019

Author

Rebecca L. McGuire, Martin Robards, and Joseph R. Liebezeit

Subjects
Arctic, infrastructure, nest density, nest survival, passerines, shorebirds, Biology (General), QH301-705.5, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, QH1-199.5
Abstract

The Arctic Coastal Plain is one of the most important avian breeding grounds in the world; however, many species are in decline. Arctic‐breeding birds contend with short breeding seasons, harsh climatic conditions, and now, rapidly changing, variable, and unpredictable environmental conditions caused by climate change. Additionally, those breeding in industrial areas may be impacted by human activities. It is difficult to separate the impacts of industrial development and climate change; however, long‐term datasets can help show patterns over time. We evaluated factors influencing reproductive parameters of breeding birds at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, 2003–2019, by monitoring 1265 shorebird nests, 378 passerine nests, and 231 waterfowl nests. We found that nest survival decreased significantly nearer high‐use infrastructure for all guilds. Temporally, passerine nest survival declined across the 17 years of the study, while there was no significant evidence of change in their nest density. Shorebird nest survival did not vary significantly across years, nor did nest density. Waterfowl nest density increased over the course of the study, but we could not estimate nest survival in all years. Egg predator populations varied across time; numbers of gulls and ravens increased in the oilfields 2003–2019, while Arctic fox decreased, and jaeger numbers did not vary significantly. Long‐term datasets are rare in the Arctic, but they are crucial for understanding impacts to breeding birds from both climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities. We show that nest survival was lower for birds nesting closer to high‐use infrastructure in Arctic Alaska, which was not detected in earlier, shorter‐term studies. Additionally, we show that Lapland longspur nest survival decreased across time, in concert with continent‐wide declines in many passerine species. The urgency to understand these relationships cannot be expressed strongly enough, given change is continuing to happen and the potential impacts are large.

Published
2023
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2. Migratory network reveals unique spatial-temporal migration dynamics of Dunlin subspecies along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

Author

Benjamin J. Lagassé, Richard B. Lanctot, Stephen Brown, Alexei G. Dondua, Steve Kendall, Christopher J. Latty, Joseph R. Liebezeit, Egor Y. Loktionov, Konstantin S. Maslovsky, Alexander I. Matsyna, Ekaterina L. Matsyna, Rebecca L. McGuire, David C. Payer, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Jonathan C. Slaght, Diana V. Solovyeva, Pavel S. Tomkovich, Olga P. Valchuk, and Michael B. Wunder

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Determining the dynamics of where and when individuals occur is necessary to understand population declines and identify critical areas for populations of conservation concern. However, there are few examples where a spatially and temporally explicit model has been used to evaluate the migratory dynamics of a bird population across its entire annual cycle. We used geolocator-derived migration tracks of 84 Dunlin (Calidris alpina) on the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) to construct a migratory network describing annual subspecies-specific migration patterns in space and time. We found that Dunlin subspecies exhibited unique patterns of spatial and temporal flyway use. Spatially, C. a. arcticola predominated in regions along the eastern edge of the flyway (e.g., western Alaska and central Japan), whereas C. a. sakhalina predominated in regions along the western edge of the flyway (e.g., N China and inland China). No individual Dunlin that wintered in Japan also wintered in the Yellow Sea, China seas, or inland China, and vice-versa. However, similar proportions of the 4 subspecies used many of the same regions at the center of the flyway (e.g., N Sakhalin Island and the Yellow Sea). Temporally, Dunlin subspecies staggered their south migrations and exhibited little temporal overlap among subspecies within shared migration regions. In contrast, Dunlin subspecies migrated simultaneously during north migration. South migration was also characterized by individuals stopping more often and for more days than during north migration. Taken together, these spatial-temporal migration dynamics indicate Dunlin subspecies may be differentially affected by regional habitat change and population declines according to where and when they occur. We suggest that the migration dynamics presented here are useful for guiding on-the-ground survey efforts to quantify subspecies’ use of specific sites, and to estimate subspecies’ population sizes and long-term trends. Such studies would significantly advance our understanding of Dunlin space-time dynamics and the coordination of Dunlin conservation actions across the EAAF.

Published
2022

3. Shorebird Reproductive Response to Exceptionally Early and Late Springs Varies Across Sites in Arctic Alaska

Author

Rebecca L. McGuire, Richard B. Lanctot, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, and Joseph R. Liebezeit

Subjects
Arctic, environmental variation, nest density, nest initiation, nest survival, nest synchrony, Evolution, QH359-425, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract

While increases in overall temperatures are widely reported in the Arctic, large inter-annual variation in spring weather, with extreme early and late conditions, is also occurring. Using data collected from three sites in Arctic Alaska, we explored how shorebird breeding density, nest initiation, nest synchrony, nest survival, and phenological mismatch varied between two exceptionally early (2015 and 2016) and late (2017 and 2018) springs. We assessed these differences in the context of long-term data from each site and whether species exhibited conservative or opportunistic reproductive strategies. Conservative shorebirds typically display nest-site fidelity and territoriality, consistent population densities, relatively even individual spacing, and monogamous mating systems with bi-parental incubation. In contrast, opportunistic shorebirds display the opposite traits, and a polygamous mating system with uniparental incubation. In this study, we evaluated 2,239 nests from 13 shorebird species, 2015–2018, and found that shorebirds of both strategies bred earlier and in higher numbers in early, warm springs relative to historic levels (based on 3,789 nests, 2005–2014); opposite trends were observed in late springs. In early springs, nests were initiated less synchronously than in late springs. Nest survival was unrelated to spring type, but was greater in earlier laid nests overall. Invertebrate food resources emerged earlier in early springs, resulting in a greater temporal asynchrony between invertebrate emergence and chick hatching in early than late springs. However, invertebrate abundance was quite variable among sites and years regardless of spring type. Overall, our results were generally consistent with predicted relationships between spring conditions and reproductive parameters. However, we detected differences among sites that could not be explained by other ecological factors (e.g., predators or alternative prey). Differences in shorebird community composition and other subtler methodological/ecological differences among sites highlight the difficulty of understanding the complex nature of these ecological systems and the importance of evaluating questions at multiple sites across multiple years. Our study demonstrates that shorebirds exhibit a high degree of behavioral flexibility in response to variable Arctic conditions, but whether this flexibility is enough to allow them to optimally track changing environmental conditions or if evolutionary adjustments will be necessary is unknown.

Published
2020
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6. Shorebird Reproductive Response to Exceptionally Early and Late Springs Varies Across Sites in Arctic Alaska

Author

Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Rebecca L. McGuire, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Joseph R. Liebezeit, and Richard B. Lanctot

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 0301 basic medicine, nest initiation, lcsh:Evolution, Context (language use), Biology, Territoriality, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Predation, nest survival, 03 medical and health sciences, Arctic, environmental variation, nest synchrony, Nest, Abundance (ecology), lcsh:QH540-549.5, lcsh:QH359-425, Wader, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Ecology, Mating system, biology.organism_classification, 030104 developmental biology, lcsh:Ecology, nest density
Abstract

While increases in overall temperatures are widely reported in the Arctic, large inter-annual variation in spring weather, with extreme early and late conditions, is also occurring. Using data collected from three sites in Arctic Alaska, we explored how shorebird breeding density, nest initiation, nest synchrony, nest survival, and phenological mismatch varied between two exceptionally early (2015 and 2016) and late (2017 and 2018) springs. We assessed these differences in the context of long-term data from each site and whether species exhibited conservative or opportunistic reproductive strategies. Conservative shorebirds typically display nest-site fidelity and territoriality, consistent population densities, relatively even individual spacing, and monogamous mating systems with bi-parental incubation. In contrast, opportunistic shorebirds display the opposite traits, and a polygamous mating system with uniparental incubation. In this study, we evaluated 2,239 nests from 13 shorebird species, 2015–2018, and found that shorebirds of both strategies bred earlier and in higher numbers in early, warm springs relative to historic levels (based on 3,789 nests, 2005–2014); opposite trends were observed in late springs. In early springs, nests were initiated less synchronously than in late springs. Nest survival was unrelated to spring type, but was greater in earlier laid nests overall. Invertebrate food resources emerged earlier in early springs, resulting in a greater temporal asynchrony between invertebrate emergence and chick hatching in early than late springs. However, invertebrate abundance was quite variable among sites and years regardless of spring type. Overall, our results were generally consistent with predicted relationships between spring conditions and reproductive parameters. However, we detected differences among sites that could not be explained by other ecological factors (e.g., predators or alternative prey). Differences in shorebird community composition and other subtler methodological/ecological differences among sites highlight the difficulty of understanding the complex nature of these ecological systems and the importance of evaluating questions at multiple sites across multiple years. Our study demonstrates that shorebirds exhibit a high degree of behavioral flexibility in response to variable Arctic conditions, but whether this flexibility is enough to allow them to optimally track changing environmental conditions or if evolutionary adjustments will be necessary is unknown.

Published
2020
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7. Abundance and distribution of wintering shorebirds along the Pacific coast of Guatemala

Author

Martin D. Robards, Zachary M. Pohlen, José Fernando Moreira-Ramírez, Bianca Bosarreyes, Callie F. Gesmundo, Rebecca L. McGuire, K. Varinia Sagastume-Pinto, and Roan McNab

Subjects
Geography, Oceanography, business.industry, Abundance (ecology), Distribution (economics), Animal Science and Zoology, Aquatic Science, business, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Published
2020

8. Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic

Author

T. Lee Tibbitts, Andrew L. Von Duyke, Jerrold L. Belant, Rob van Bemmelen, Diana V. Solovyeva, Tong Mu, Dale R. Seip, Rui Prieto, Kurt K. Burnham, Lee A. Vierling, Holly L. Hennin, Jesper Madsen, Judy A. Williams, James A. Johnson, Peter P. Marra, Michael L. Casazza, Elly C. Knight, Jean-François Therrien, Cory T. Overton, Arjan J. H. Meddens, Laura R. Prugh, Emily A. McKinnon, Scott D. LaPoint, Adam Shreading, Larry Griffin, Jeff Kidd, Helmut Kruckenberg, Andrew Berdahl, Kimberly Jones, Roland Kays, Erica H. Craig, Mikhail Markovets, Grigori Tertitski, Nicholas C. Larter, Dmitrijs Boiko, Ruth Y. Oliver, James R. Wright, Jyoti S. Jennewein, David J. Yurkowski, Hans Schekkerman, Martin Wikelski, Andrea Kölzsch, James P. Lawler, Travis L. Booms, David Cabot, Mark Maftei, Ophélie Couriot, Kane Brides, Stephen B. Lewis, Joseph R. Evenson, José A. Alves, James Hodson, Steven L. Van Wilgenburg, Petr Glazov, Joël Bêty, Joshua T. Ackerman, Victor N. Bulyuk, Steven H. Ferguson, Vasiliy Sokolov, Richard B. Lanctot, Katherine S. Christie, Philipp Schwemmer, Mark R. Fuller, Ingrid Tulp, Erin M. Bayne, Aaron T. Fisk, Christopher J. Latty, Jan U. H. Eitel, Emma Grier, Gilles Gauthier, Michael N. Kochert, Kelsey L M Russell, Stephen C. Brown, Jennie Rausch, Aevar Petersen, Jérôme Fort, Joel A. Schmutz, Andrew Dixon, Stefan Garthe, Klaus-Michael Exo, Carrie E. Gray, Gerhard J. D. M. Müskens, Wolfgang Fiedler, Mark Hebblewhite, Jean-François Lamarre, Dominic J. Demma, Dominique Berteaux, Gil Bohrer, Janet Ng, Bryan Bedrosian, F M Smith, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Tracy Davison, Stan Boutin, J. Mark Hipfner, Patricia A. Owen, Christopher R. DeSorbo, Brian W. Smith, Michael A. Yates, Natalie T. Boelman, Sarah C. Davidson, Allicia Kelly, Aleksandr Sokolov, Sander Moonen, Grant Gilchrist, Peter J. Mahoney, Ramūnas Žydelis, Jeff P. Smith, Mathew S. Sorum, Brian D. Uher-Koch, Carol L. McIntyre, Ingar Jostein Øien, Katherine R. S. Snell, Tomas Aarvak, David Grémillet, Allison Patterson, Bridget L. Borg, Autumn-Lynn Harrison, Shanti E. Davis, Götz Eichhorn, Mónica A. Silva, Michael T. Hallworth, Petra Quillfeldt, Alicia M. Berlin, Kerry L. Nicholson, Eliezer Gurarie, Ivan Pokrovsky, Kyle H. Elliott, Matthew T. Wilson, Oliver P. Love, Buck A. Mangipane, Hansoo Lee, Jesse L. Watson, Luke L. Powell, Kyle Joly, Don-Jean Léandri-Breton, Todd E. Katzner, Robert Domenech, A. David M. Latham, Alastair Franke, Benjamin J. Lagassé, Kasper Thorup, Bryan D. Watts, Sandra Lai, Tricia A. Miller, W. Sean Boyd, Mark L. Mallory, Rebecca L. McGuire, LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Dutch Centre for Avian Migration & Demography, and Animal Ecology (AnE)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Ecology (disciplines), Acclimatization, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Population, Ecological Parameter Monitoring, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 010605 ornithology, Onderz. Form. D, ddc:570, Life Science, Animals, 14. Life underwater, No theme, education, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, education.field_of_study, Multidisciplinary, Ecology, Phenology, Archives, Arctic Regions, Data discovery, Plan_S-Compliant_NO, 15. Life on land, Subarctic climate, Geography, Arctic, 13. Climate action, international, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, WIAS, Dierecologie, Animal Migration, Animal Ecology
Abstract

Ecological “big data” Human activities are rapidly altering the natural world. Nowhere is this more evident, perhaps, than in the Arctic, yet this region remains one of the most remote and difficult to study. Researchers have increasingly relied on animal tracking data in these regions to understand individual species' responses, but if we want to understand larger-scale change, we need to integrate our understanding across species. Davidson et al. introduce an open-source data archive that currently hosts more than 15 million location data points across 96 species and use it to show distinct climate change responses across species. Such ecological “big data” can lead to a wider understanding of change. Science , this issue p. 712

Published
2020

9. Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain

Author

Stephen C. Brown, Emily L. Weiser, Megan L. Boldenow, Mikhail Soloviev, Martin D. Robards, David C. Payer, Laura Koloski, Brett K. Sandercock, Glen S. Brown, H. Grant Gilchrist, Joseph R. Liebezeit, Paul Smith, Steve Kendall, Eunbi Kwon, Scott A. Flemming, Johanna Perz, H. River Gates, Paul F. Woodard, Laura McKinnon, Rebecca L. McGuire, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Jennie Rausch, Samantha E. Franks, Jean-François Lamarre, Lisa V. Kennedy, Nicolas Lecomte, David H. Ward, Rodney W. Brook, Willow B. English, Nathan R. Senner, David B. Lank, Joël Bêty, Andrew D. Johnson, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Richard B. Lanctot, Diana V. Solovyeva, Christopher J. Latty, and Erica Nol

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, demography, fecundity, plover, Population, Zoology and botany: 480 [VDP], Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, survival, 010605 ornithology, Flyway, phalarope, Population growth, education, Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 [VDP], Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, education.field_of_study, sandpiper, Fecundity, Population bottleneck, Population model, Conservation status, waders, Animal Science and Zoology, Vital rates, population modeling, Demography
Abstract

Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies' low annual adult survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual adult survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual adult survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality.LAY SUMMARYDocumenting population trends is essential for evaluating the conservation status of wild species such as Arctic-breeding shorebirds.Trends can be estimated with population surveys or by predicting population growth based on survival rates and fecundity, but both methods are challenging, especially for species with large or remote geographic distributions.We used recent broad-scale estimates of survival and fecundity to develop population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds.The arcticola subspecies of Dunlin is likely in severe decline, but our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty.Uncertainty around the values of annual adult survival rates was a key driver of the uncertainty around the trend estimates.Our work highlights the need for better estimates of annual adult survival, seasonal survival, juvenile survival, and breeding propensity for these Arctic-breeding shorebirds.

Published
2020

10. No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds

Author

Natalya A. Sokolova, Nicolas Lecomte, Sarah E. Jamieson, Marie-Andrée Giroux, D’Amico, Rose J. Swift, Aleksandr Sokolov, Glen S. Brown, Jannik Hansen, Marcelo Bertellotti, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Olivier Gilg, Glenda D. Hevia, Megan L. Boldenow, James A. Johnson, Joe Liebezeit, Paula Machin, Bart Kempenaers, Joël Bêty, Jennie Rausch, Loïc Bollache, Jan A. van Gils, David H. Ward, Rebecca L. McGuire, Juan Fernandez-Elipe, Theunis Piersma, Niels Martin Schmidt, Johannes Lang, Conklin, Brian J. McCaffery, Michael-Exo K, Jean-François Lamarre, Daniel H. Catlin, Martin Bulla, Nicolas Meyer, Jeroen Reneerkens, Ricardo Augusto Serpa Cerboncini, Mihai Valcu, Erica Nol, Benoît Sittler, Emily L. Weiser, Eduardo S. A. Santos, Tomáš Albrecht, Richard Ottvall, Martijn van de Pol, José A. Alves, Nathan R. Senner, Stephen C. Brown, Paul A. Smith, H. River Gates, David C. Payer, Sara T Saalfeld, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Rob van Bemmelen, Diana V. Solovyeva, Matthew Johnson, Audrey R. Taylor, Richard B. Lanctot, Mikhail Soloviev, and Eunbi Kwon

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Geography, Nest, 13. Climate action, Ecology, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, 010605 ornithology, The arctic, Predation
Abstract

Kubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Published
2019

11. Comment on 'Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds'

Author

Mikhail Soloviev, Joël Bêty, David C. Payer, Sara T Saalfeld, Paula Machin, Eunbi Kwon, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Nicolas Meyer, Klaus-Michael Exo, David H. Ward, Jean-François Lamarre, Benoît Sittler, Jesse R. Conklin, Mihai Valcu, Eduardo S. A. Santos, Tomáš Albrecht, Daniel H. Catlin, Audrey R. Taylor, Joe Liebezeit, Megan L. Boldenow, Richard Ottvall, Richard B. Lanctot, Rebecca L. McGuire, Olivier Gilg, Loïc Bollache, Aleksandr Sokolov, José A. Alves, Nathan R. Senner, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Jan A. van Gils, Sarah E. Jamieson, Emily L. Weiser, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Jeroen Reneerkens, Matthew Johnson, Marcelo Bertellotti, H. River Gates, Brian J. McCaffery, Glenda D. Hevia, Nicolas Lecomte, Glen S. Brown, Natalya A. Sokolova, Niels Martin Schmidt, Verónica L. D’Amico, Bart Kempenaers, Martin Bulla, Rob van Bemmelen, Diana V. Solovyeva, Rose J. Swift, Johannes Lang, Ricardo Augusto Serpa Cerboncini, James A. Johnson, Martijn van de Pol, Erica Nol, Juan Fernandez-Elipe, Jennie Rausch, Jannik Hansen, Theunis Piersma, Stephen C. Brown, Paul A. Smith, Department of Behavioural Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Arctic Research Station of Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (UB RAS), Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Alaska [Anchorage], Groupe de recherche en écologie arctique (GREA), Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish & Wildlife Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University [Blacksburg], Natural Resource Sciences - National Park Service, Institute of Biological Problems of the North (IBPN), Graduate Program in Production Engineering and System (PPGEPS), Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences [Groningen] (GELIFES), University of Groningen [Groningen], Department of Biology, Trent University, Division of Biology, Kansas State University, ONTARIO MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND FORESTRY CAN, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR), Summit Analytical, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University [Aarhus]-Arctic Research Centre, Synchrotron SOLEIL (SSOLEIL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Audubon Society of Portland, Departement de Biologie & Centre d'Etudes Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Institut für Medizinische Mikrobiologie - Institute of Medical Microbiology, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Departamento de Matematica, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Universidade do Porto, Institute of Avian Research, Vogelwarte Helgoland, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - CNRS - UBFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Departement de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Durham University, Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), University of Montana, Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology, Université de Moncton, Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives (Inrap), Arctic Beringia Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University [New York], Simon Fraser University (SFU.ca), Shorebird Recovery Program, Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences, Department of Marine Ecology and Evolution, Inst. Vertebrate Biol., Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS), Migratory Bird Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Animal Ecology (AnE), Piersma group, Palsbøll lab, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), and Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, CLIMATE CHANGE, NEST PREDATION, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Predation, Nesting Behavior, Ciencias Biológicas, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Predatory behavior, Nest, Life Science, Animals, INVESTIGATOR DISTURBANCE, 14. Life underwater, SHOREBIRDS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, Ecology, Arctic Regions, Plan_S-Compliant_NO, Ecología, 15. Life on land, The arctic, 010601 ecology, Geography, ECOLOGICAL TRAP, 13. Climate action, international, Predatory Behavior, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
Abstract

Kubelka et al. (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims. Fil: Bulla, Martin. Nioz Royal Netherlands Institute For Sea Research; Países Bajos. Max Planck Institute For Ornithology; Alemania. Czech University of Life Sciences; República Checa Fil: Reneerkens, Jeroen. Nioz Royal Netherlands Institute For Sea Research; Países Bajos. University of Groningen; Países Bajos Fil: Weiser, Emily L.. Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Sokolov, Aleksandr. Institute Of Plant And Animal Ecology; Rusia Fil: Taylor, Audrey R.. University of Alaska; Estados Unidos Fil: Sittler, Benoît. Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg; Alemania. Arctic Ecology Research Group; Francia Fil: McCaffery, Brian J.. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Estados Unidos Fil: Ruthrauff, Dan R.. U.S. Geological Survey; Estados Unidos Fil: Catlin, Daniel H.. Virginia Tech University; Estados Unidos Fil: Payer, David C.. National Park Service; Estados Unidos Fil: Ward, David H.. U.S. Geological Survey; Estados Unidos Fil: Solovyeva, Diana V.. Institute of Biological Problems of the North; Rusia Fil: Santos, Eduardo S. A.. Universidade de São Paulo; Brasil Fil: Rakhimberdiev, Eldar. Lomonosov Moscow State University; Rusia. University of Groningen; Países Bajos Fil: Nol, Erica. Trent University; Canadá Fil: Kwon, Eunbi. Virginia Tech; Estados Unidos Fil: Brown, Glen S.. Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry; Canadá Fil: Hevia, Glenda Denise. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina Fil: Gates, H. River. National Audubon Society; Estados Unidos Fil: Johnson, James A.. Fish and Wildlife Service; Estados Unidos Fil: van Gils, Jan A.. Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University; Países Bajos Fil: Hansen, Jannik. Aarhus University. Aarhus Institute Of Advanced Studies.; Dinamarca Fil: Lamarre, Jean-François. Polar Knowledge Canada; Canadá Fil: Rausch, Jennie. Environment and Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: Conklin, Jesse R.. University of Groningen; Países Bajos Fil: Liebezeit, Joe. Audubon Society of Portland; Estados Unidos Fil: Bêty, Joël. University of Quebec; Canadá Fil: Lang, Johannes. Arctic Ecology Research Group ; Francia. Giessen University; Alemania Fil: Alves, José A.. University of Aveiro; Portugal. University of Iceland; Islandia Fil: Fernández-Elipe, Juan. No especifíca; Fil: Exo, Klaus-Michael. Institute of Avian Research “Vogelwarte Helgoland"; Alemania Fil: Bollache, Loïc. Universite de Franche-Comte; Francia Fil: Bertellotti, Néstor Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina Fil: Giroux, Marie-Andrée. Université de Moncton; Canadá Fil: van de Pol, Martijn. Netherlands Institute of Ecology ; Países Bajos Fil: Johnson, Matthew. USDA Forest Service; Estados Unidos Fil: Boldenow, Megan L.. University of Alaska; Estados Unidos Fil: Valcu, Mihai. Max Planck Institute für Ornithologie; Alemania Fil: Soloviev, Mikhail. Lomonosov Moscow State University; Alemania Fil: Sokolova, Natalya. Arctic Research Station; Rusia Fil: Senner, Nathan R.. University of South Carolina; Estados Unidos Fil: Lecomte, Nicolas. Université de Moncton; Canadá Fil: Meyer, Nicolas. Universite de Franche-Comte; Francia. Arctic Ecology Research Group; Francia Fil: Schmidt, Niels Martin. Aarhus University. Department of Bioscience; Dinamarca Fil: Gilg, Olivier. Arctic Ecology Research Group; Francia. Universite de Franche-Comte; Francia Fil: Smith, Paul A.. Environment and Climate Change Canada; Canadá Fil: Machín, Paula. No especifíca; Fil: McGuire, Rebecca L.. Wildlife Conservation Society; Estados Unidos Fil: Cerboncini, Ricardo A. S.. Universidade Federal do Paraná; Brasil Fil: Ottvall, Richard. No especifíca; Fil: van Bemmelen, Rob S. A.. Wageningen Marine Research; Países Bajos Fil: Swift, Rose J.. Cornell University; Estados Unidos Fil: Saalfeld, Sarah T.. No especifíca; Fil: Jamieson,Sarah E.. Simon Fraser University; Canadá Fil: Brown, Stephen. No especifíca; Fil: Piersma, Theunis. NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países Bajos. Conservation Ecology Group; Países Bajos Fil: Albrecht, Tomas. Czech Academy of Sciences; República Checa. Charles University; República Checa Fil: D’Amico, Verónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; Argentina Fil: Lanctot, Richard B.. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Estados Unidos Fil: Kempenaers, Bart. Max Planck Institute für Ornithologie; Alemania

Published
2019

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