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Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level population data are currently unfit for purpose due to the difficulty of marginalising over high-dimensional, highly-correlated censored epidemiological event data. Here we propose a new Bayesian MCMC approach to inference on a spatially-explicit stochastic SEIR meta-population model, using a suite of novel model-informed Metropolis-Hastings samplers. We apply this method to UK COVID-19 case data, showing real-time spatial results that were used to inform UK policy during the pandemic.

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are intense repeating soft X-ray bursts from the nuclei of nearby galaxies. Their physical origin is still largely unconstrained, and several theoretical models have been proposed to date. We present here results from a recent XMM-Newton observation of GSN 069, the galactic nucleus where QPEs were first discovered. After about two years of absence, QPEs have reappeared in GSN 069, and we detect two consecutive QPEs separated by a much shorter recurrence time than ever before. Moreover, their intensities and peak temperatures are remarkably different, a novel addition to the QPE phenomenology. We study the QPE spectral properties from all XMM-Newton observations assuming QPEs to either represent an additional emission component superimposed on that from the disc, or the transient evolution of the disc emission itself. In the former scenario, QPEs are consistent with black-body emission from a region that expands by a factor of 2-3 during the individual QPE evolution with radius of the order of that of the Sun at QPE peak. In the alternative non-additive scenario, QPEs originate from a region with an area 6-30 times smaller than the quiescent state X-ray emission, with the smallest regions corresponding to the hottest and most luminous eruptions. The QPE reappearance reveals that eruptions are only present below a quiescent luminosity threshold corresponding to an Eddington ratio of the order of 0.4 for a one million solar masses black hole. The disappearance of QPEs above threshold is most likely driven by the ratio of QPE to quiescence temperatures approaching unity at high quiescent luminosity, making QPE detection challenging, if not impossible, above threshold. We briefly discuss some of the consequences of our results on the proposed models for the QPE physical origin. [abridged], Comment: accepted for publication as A&A Letter

In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations are explored here with a novel compartmental infectious disease model which, stratified by deprivation and age, accounts for population-level behaviour including social mixing patterns. As an exemplar using a fully Bayesian approach our model is fitted, in real-time if required, to the UKHSA COVID-19 community testing case data from England. Metrics including reproduction number and forecasts of daily case incidence are estimated from the posterior samples. From this UKHSA dataset it is observed that during the initial period of the pandemic the most deprived groups reported the most cases however this trend reversed after the summer of 2021. Forward simulation experiments based on the fitted model demonstrate that this reversal can be accounted for by differential changes in population level behaviours including social mixing and testing behaviour, but it is not explained by the depletion of susceptible individuals. In future epidemics, with a focus on socioeconomic factors the approach outlined here provides the possibility of identifying those groups most at risk with a view to helping policy-makers better target their support., Comment: Main article: 25 pages, 6 figures. Appendix 2 pages, 1 figure. Supplementary Material: 15 pages, 14 figures. Version 2 - minor updates: fixed typos, updated mathematical notation and small quantity of descriptive text added. Version 3 - minor update: made colour coding consistent across all time series figures

GSN 069 is the first galactic nucleus where quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) have been identified. These are high-amplitude, soft X-ray bursts recurring every ~9 hr, lasting ~1 hr, and during which the X-ray count rate increases by up to two orders of magnitude with respect to an otherwise stable quiescent level. The X-ray spectral properties and the long-term evolution of GSN 069 in the first few years are consistent with a long-lived tidal disruption event (TDE). Here we derive the properties of QPEs and of the long-term X-ray evolution in GSN 069 over the past 12 yr by studying timing and spectral X-ray data from 11 XMM-Newton, one Chandra, and 34 Swift observations on timescales ranging from minutes to years. QPEs in GSN 069 are a transient phenomenon with a lifetime > 1.05 yr. The QPE intensity and recurrence time oscillate and allow for alternating strong-weak QPEs and long-short recurrence times to be defined. In observations with QPEs, the quiescent level exhibits a quasi-periodic oscillation with a period equal to the average separation between consecutive QPEs. The QPE spectral evolution is consistent with thermal emission from a very compact region that heats up quickly and subsequently cools down via X-ray emission while expanding by a factor of ~3 in radius. The long-term evolution of the quiescent level is characterised by two repeating TDEs ~9 yr apart. We detect a precursor X-ray flare prior to the second TDE that may be associated with the circularisation phase during disc formation. A similar precursor flare is tentatively detected just before the first TDE. Future X-ray observations of GSN 069 promise that the QPE origin and the relation between QPEs and repeating TDEs in this galactic nucleus will be constrained, with consequences for the other sources where QPEs have been identified. [abridged], Comment: Revised and expanded version. Accepted for publication in A&A on 30 November 2022

Temporal variability in flux and spectral shape is ubiquitous in the X-ray sky and carries crucial information about the nature and emission physics of the sources. The EPIC instrument on board the XMM-Newton observatory is the most powerful tool for studying variability even in faint sources. Each day, it collects a large amount of information about hundreds of new serendipitous sources, but the resulting huge (and growing) dataset is largely unexplored in the time domain. The project called Exploring the X-ray transient and variable sky (EXTraS) systematically extracted all temporal domain information in the XMM-Newton archive. This included a search and characterisation of variability, both periodic and aperiodic, in hundreds of thousands of sources spanning more than eight orders of magnitude in timescale and six orders of magnitude in flux, and a search for fast transients that were missed by standard image analysis. All results, products, and software tools have been released to the community in a public archive. A science gateway has also been implemented to allow users to run the EXTraS analysis remotely on recent XMM datasets. We give details on the new algorithms that were designed and implemented to perform all steps of EPIC data analysis, including data preparation, source and background modelling, generation of time series and power spectra, and search for and characterisation of different types of variabilities. We describe our results and products and give information about their basic statistical properties and advice on their usage. We also describe available online resources. The EXTraS database of results and its ancillary products is a rich resource for any kind of investigation in almost all fields of astrophysics. Algorithms and lessons learnt from our project are also a very useful reference for any current and future experiment in the time domain., Comment: 39 pages; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

In the past two decades, high amplitude electromagnetic outbursts have been detected from dormant galaxies and often attributed to the tidal disruption of a star by the central black hole. X-ray emission from the Seyfert 2 galaxy GSN 069 (2MASX J01190869-3411305) at redshift z = 0.018 was first detected in 2010 July and implies an X-ray brightening of more than a factor of 240 over ROSAT observations performed 16 years earlier. The emission has smoothly decayed over time since 2010, possibly indicating a long-lived tidal disruption event. The X-ray spectrum is ultra-soft and can be described by accretion disc emission with luminosity proportional to the fourth power of the disc temperature during long-term evolution. Here we report observations of X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions from the nucleus of GSN 069 over the course of 54 days, 2018 December onwards. During these eruptions, the X-ray count rate increases by up to two orders of magnitude with event duration of just over 1 hour and recurrence time of about 9 hours. These eruptions are associated with fast spectral transitions between a cold and a warm phase in the accretion flow around a low-mass black hole (of approximately 4x10$^5$ solar masses) with peak X-ray luminosity of ~ 5x10$^{42}$ ergs per second. The warm phase has a temperature of about 120 eV, reminiscent of the typical soft X-ray excess, an almost universal thermal-like feature in the X-ray spectra of luminous active nuclei. If the observed properties are not unique to GSN 069, and assuming standard scaling of timescales with black hole mass and accretion properties, typical active galactic nuclei with more massive black holes can be expected to exhibit high-amplitude optical to X-ray variability on timescales as short as months or years., Comment: Authors' version of a Letter published on-line in Nature on September 11, 2019. Includes Methods and Extended Data. 43 pages, 3 tables and 10 figures

Aims. We investigate the evolution of X-ray selected tidal disruption events. Methods. New events are found in near-real time data from XMM-Newton slews and are monitored by multi-wavelength facilities. Results. In August 2016, X-ray emission was detected from the galaxy XMMSL2 J144605.0+685735 (a.k.a. 2MASX 14460522+6857311), a factor 20 times higher than an upper limit from 25 years earlier. The X-ray flux was flat for ~100 days and then fell by a factor 100 over the following 500 days. The UV flux was stable for the first 400 days before fading by a magnitude, while the optical (U,B,V bands) have been roughly constant for 850 days. Optically, the galaxy appears to be quiescent, at a distance of $127\pm{4}$ Mpc (z=$0.029\pm{0.001}$) with a spectrum consisting of a young stellar population of age 1-5 Gyr, an older population and a total stellar mass of ~6 x $10^{9}$ solar masses. The bolometric luminosity peaked at L bol ~ $10^{43}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ with an X-ray spectrum that may be modeled by a power-law of $\Gamma$~2.6 or Comptonisation of a low-temperature thermal component by thermal electrons. We consider a tidal disruption event to be the most likely cause of the flare. Radio emission was absent in this event down to < 10$\mu$Jy, which limits the total energy of a hypothetical off-axis jet to E < 5 x $10^{50}$ ergs. The independent behaviour of the optical, UV and X-ray light curves challenges models where the UV emission is produced by reprocessing of thermal nuclear emission or by stream-stream collisions. We suggest that the observed UV emission may have been produced from a truncated accretion disk and the X-rays from Compton upscattering of these disk photons., Comment: Accepted by A&A

We report the discovery of NGTS-2b, an inflated hot-Jupiter transiting a bright F5V star (2MASS J14202949-3112074; $T_{\rm eff}$=$6478^{+94}_{-89}$ K), discovered as part of the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS). The planet is in a P=4.51 day orbit with mass $0.74^{+0.13}_{-0.12}$ M$_{J}$, radius $1.595^{+0.047}_{-0.045}$ R$_{J}$ and density $0.226^{+0.040}_{-0.038}$ g cm$^{-3}$; therefore one of the lowest density exoplanets currently known. With a relatively deep 1.0% transit around a bright V=10.96 host star, NGTS-2b is a prime target for probing giant planet composition via atmospheric transmission spectroscopy. The rapid rotation ($vsin$i=$15.2\pm0.8$ km s$^{-1}$) also makes this system an excellent candidate for Rossiter-McLaughlin follow-up observations, to measure the sky-projected stellar obliquity. NGTS-2b was confirmed without the need for follow-up photometry, due to the high precision of the NGTS photometry., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present optical spectroscopy of candidate AGN pinpointed by a Swift follow-up campaign on unidentified transients in the XMM-Newton Slew Survey, increasing the completeness of the identifications of AGN in the Survey. Our Swift follow-up campaign identified 17 XRT-detected candidate AGN, of which nine were selected for optical follow-up and a further two were confirmed as AGN elsewhere. Using data obtained at the William Herschel Telescope, Very Large Telescope and New Technology Telescope, we find AGN features in seven of the candidates. We classify six as Seyfert types 1.0 to 1.5, with broad-line region velocities spanning 2000--12000 km s$^{-1}$, and identify one as a possible Type II AGN, consistent with the lack of a soft band X-ray detection in the Slew Survey. The Virial black hole mass estimates for the sample lie between 1$\times$10$^{8}$ M$_{\odot}$ and 3$\times$10$^9$ M$_{\odot}$, with one source likely emitting close to its Eddington rate, $L_{\rm Bol}/L_{\rm Edd} \sim 0.9$. We find a wide redshift range of $0.08

We study X-ray bright tidal disruption events (TDE), close to the peak of their emission, with the intention of understanding the evolution of their light curves and spectra. Candidate TDE are identified by searching for soft X-ray flares from non-active galaxies in recent XMM-Newton slew data. In April 2014, X-ray emission was detected from the galaxy XMMSL1 J074008.2-853927 (a.k.a. 2MASX 07400785-8539307), a factor 20 times higher than an upper limit from 20 years earlier. Both the X-ray and UV flux subsequently fell, by factors of 70 and 12 respectively. The bolometric luminosity peaked at Lbol~2E44 ergs/s with a spectrum that may be modelled with thermal emission in the UV band, a power-law with slope~2 dominating in the X-ray band above 2 keV and a soft X-ray excess with an effective temperature of ~86 eV. Rapid variability locates the X-ray emission to within <73 Rg of the nuclear black hole. Radio emission of flux density ~1 mJy, peaking at 1.5 GHz was detected 21 months after discovery. Optical spectra indicate that the galaxy, at a distance of 73 Mpc (z=0.0173), underwent a starburst 2 Gyr ago and is now quiescent. We consider a tidal disruption event to be the most likely cause of the flare. If this proves to be correct then this is a very clean example of a disruption exhibiting both thermal and non-thermal radiation., Comment: A&A accepted, 11 pages, 10 figures

We investigate the properties of a variability-selected complete sample of AGN in order to identify the mechanisms which cause large amplitude X-ray variability on time scales of years. A complete sample of 24 sources was constructed, from AGN which changed their soft X-ray luminosity by more than one order of magnitude over 5--20 years between ROSAT observations and the XMM Slew Survey. Follow-up observations were obtained with the Swift satellite. After removal of two probable spurious sources, we find that the sample has global properties which differ little from a non-varying control sample drawn from the wider XMM-Slew/ROSAT/Veron sample of all secure AGN detections. A wide range of AGN types are represented in the varying sample. The black hole mass distributions for the varying and non-varying sample are not significantly different. This suggests that long timescale variability is not strongly affected by black hole mass. There is marginal evidence that the variable sources have a lower redshift (2$\sigma$) and X-ray luminosity (1.7$\sigma$). Apart from two radio-loud sources, the sample have normal optical-X-ray ratios ($\alpha_{\rm OX}$) when at their peak but are X-ray weak during their lowest flux measurements. Drawing on our results and other studies, we are able to identify a variety of variability mechanisms at play: tidal disruption events, jet activity, changes in absorption, thermal emission from the inner accretion disc, and variable accretion disc reflection. Little evidence for strong absorption is seen in the majority of the sample and single-component absorption can be excluded as the mechanism for most sources., Comment: 23 pages, accepted for publication by A&A

The detection of the first gravitational wave (GW) transient GW150914 prompted an extensive campaign of follow-up observations at all wavelengths. Although no dedicated XMM-Newton observations have been performed, the satellite passed through the GW150914 error box during normal operations. Here we report the analysis of the data taken during these satellite slews performed two hours and two weeks after the GW event. Our data cover 1.1 square degrees and 4.8 square degrees of the final GW localization region. No credible X-ray counterpart to GW150914 is found down to a sensitivity of 6E-13 erg/cm2/s in the 0.2-2 keV band. Nevertheless, these observations show the great potential of XMM-Newton slew observations for the search of the electromagnetic counterparts of GW events. A series of adjacent slews performed in response to a GW trigger would take <1.5 days to cover most of the typical GW credible region. We discuss this scenario and its prospects for detecting the X-ray counterpart of future GW detections., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

During a search for coherent signals in the X-ray archival data of XMM-Newton, we discovered a modulation at 1.2 s in 3XMM J004301.4+413017 (3X J0043), a source lying in the direction of an external arm of M 31. This short period indicates a neutron star (NS). Between 2000 and 2013, the position of 3X J0043 was imaged by public XMM-Newton observations 35 times. The analysis of these data allowed us to detect an orbital modulation at 1.27 d and study the long-term properties of the source. The emission of the pulsar was rather hard (most spectra are described by a power law with $\Gamma < 1$) and, assuming the distance to M 31, the 0.3-10 keV luminosity was variable, from $\sim$$3\times10^{37}$ to $2\times10^{38}$ erg s$^{-1}$. The analysis of optical data shows that, while 3X J0043 is likely associated to a globular cluster in M 31, a counterpart with $V\gtrsim22$ outside the cluster cannot be excluded. Considering our findings, there are two main viable scenarios for 3X J0043: a peculiar low-mass X-ray binary, similar to 4U 1822-37 or 4U 1626-67, or an intermediate-mass X-ray binary resembling Her X-1. Regardless of the exact nature of the system, 3X J0043 is the first accreting NS in M 31 in which the spin period has been detected., Comment: To appear in MNRAS Letters; 2 color figures, 2 tables; 5 pages plus full Table 1 (1 page)

We present unpublished data from a tidal disruption candidate in NGC 3599 which show that the galaxy was already X-ray bright 18 months before the measurement which led to its classification. This removes the possibility that the flare was caused by a classical, fast-rising, short-peaked, tidal disruption event. Recent relativistic simulations indicate that the majority of disruptions will actually take months or years to rise to a peak, which will then be maintained for longer than previously thought. NGC 3599 could be one of the first identified examples of such an event. The optical spectra of NGC 3599 indicate that it is a low-luminosity Seyfert/LINER with L_bol~10^40 ergs/s The flare may alternatively be explained by a thermal instability in the accretion disc, which propagates through the inner region at the sound speed, causing an increase of the disc scale height and local accretion rate. This can explain the <9 years rise time of the flare. If this mechanism is correct then the flare may repeat on a timescale of several decades as the inner disc is emptied and refilled., Comment: Resubmitted due to typo in author name

New high variability extragalactic sources may be identified by comparing the flux of sources seen in the XMM-Newton Slew Survey with detections and upper limits from the ROSAT All Sky Survey. In November 2012, X-ray emission was detected from the galaxy XMMSL1 J061927.1-655311 (a.k.a. 2MASX 06192755-6553079), a factor 140 times higher than an upper limit from 20 years earlier. Both the X-ray and UV flux subsequently fell, over the following year, by factors of 20 and 4 respectively. Optically, the galaxy appears to be a Seyfert I with broad Balmer lines and weak, narrow, low-ionisation emission lines, at a redshift of 0.0729. The X-ray luminosity peaks at Lx ~ 8x10^43 ergs/s with a typical Sy I-like power-law X-ray spectrum of index ~ 2. The flare has either been caused by a tidal disruption event or by an increase in the accretion rate of a persistent AGN., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A

We aim to examine the relative cross-calibration accuracy of the on-axis effective areas of the XMM-Newton EPIC pn and MOS instruments. Spectra from a sample of 46 bright, high-count, non-piled-up isolated on-axis point sources are stacked together, and model residuals are examined to characterize the EPIC MOS-to-pn inter-calibration. The MOS1-to-pn and MOS2-to-pn results are broadly very similar. The cameras show the closest agreement below 1 keV, with MOS excesses over pn of 0-2% (MOS1/pn) and 0-3% (MOS2/pn). Above 3 keV, the MOS/pn ratio is consistent with energy-independent (or only mildly increasing) excesses of 7-8% (MOS1/pn) and 5-8% (MOS2/pn). In addition, between 1-2 keV there is a `silicon bump' - an enhancement at a level of 2-4% (MOS1/pn) and 3-5% (MOS2/pn). Tests suggest that the methods employed here are stable and robust. The results presented here provide the most accurate cross-calibration of the effective areas of the XMM-Newton EPIC pn and MOS instruments to date. They suggest areas of further research where causes of the MOS-to-pn differences might be found, and allow the potential for corrections to and possible rectification of the EPIC cameras to be made in the future., Comment: 8 Pages, 2 figures (3 panels), 1 table. Accepted for publication in A&A

The soft X-ray flux produced by solar axions in the Earth's magnetic field is evaluated in the context of ESA's XMM-Newton observatory. Recent calculations of the scattering of axion-conversion X-rays suggest that the sunward magnetosphere could be an observable source of 0.2-10 keV photons. For XMM-Newton, any conversion X-ray intensity will be seasonally modulated by virtue of the changing visibility of the sunward magnetic field region. A simple model of the geomagnetic field is combined with the ephemeris of XMM-Newton to predict the seasonal variation of the conversion X-ray intensity. This model is compared with stacked XMM-Newton blank sky datasets from which point sources have been systematically removed. Remarkably, a seasonally varying X-ray background signal is observed. The EPIC count rates are in the ratio of their X-ray grasps, indicating a non-instrumental, external photon origin, with significances of 11(pn), 4(MOS1) and 5(MOS2) sigma. After examining the constituent observations spatially, temporally and in terms of the cosmic X-ray background, we conclude that this variable signal is consistent with the conversion of solar axions in the Earth's magnetic field. The spectrum is consistent with a solar axion spectrum dominated by bremsstrahlung- and Compton-like processes, i.e. axion-electron coupling dominates over axion-photon coupling and the peak of the axion spectrum is below 1 keV. A value of 2.2e-22 /GeV is derived for the product of the axion-photon and axion-electron coupling constants, for an axion mass in the micro-eV range. Comparisons with limits derived from white dwarf cooling may not be applicable, as these refer to axions in the 0.01 eV range. Preliminary results are given of a search for axion-conversion X-ray lines, in particular the predicted features due to silicon, sulphur and iron in the solar core, and the 14.4 keV transition line from 57Fe., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 67 pages total, including 39 figures, 6 tables