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Diagnostic imaging has gained prominence as potential biomarkers for early detection and diagnosis in a diverse array of disorders including cancer. However, existing methods routinely face challenges arising from various factors such as image heterogeneity. We develop a novel imaging-based distributional data analysis (DDA) approach that incorporates the probability (quantile) distribution of the pixel-level features as covariates. The proposed approach uses a smoothed quantile distribution (via a suitable basis representation) as functional predictors in a scalar-on-functional quantile regression model. Some distinctive features of the proposed approach include the ability to: (i) account for heterogeneity within the image; (ii) incorporate granular information spanning the entire distribution; and (iii) tackle variability in image sizes for unregistered images in cancer applications. Our primary goal is risk prediction in Hepatocellular carcinoma that is achieved via predicting the change in tumor grades at post-diagnostic visits using pre-diagnostic enhancement pattern mapping (EPM) images of the liver. Along the way, the proposed DDA approach is also used for case versus control diagnosis and risk stratification objectives. Our analysis reveals that when coupled with global structural radiomics features derived from the corresponding T1-MRI scans, the proposed smoothed quantile distributions derived from EPM images showed considerable improvements in sensitivity and comparable specificity in contrast to classification based on routinely used summary measures that do not account for image heterogeneity. Given that there are limited predictive modeling approaches based on heterogeneous images in cancer, the proposed method is expected to provide considerable advantages in image-based early detection and risk prediction., Comment: 16, 2 figures, 3 tables

Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the moving boundaries of the habitable zone caused by the increasing luminosity of the Sun. Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include a decline in species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss and changes in the magnitudes of geochemical cycles. However, testing these predictions on the present-day Earth is difficult. The discovery of a planet that is a near analogue to the far future Earth could provide a means to test these predictions. Such a planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history, requiring it to have been in its system's habitable zone (HZ) for Gyr-long periods during the system's past, and to be approaching the inner-edge of the HZ at present. Here we assess the possibility of finding this very specific type of exoplanet and discuss the benefits of analysing older Earths in terms of improving our understanding of long-term geological and bio-geological processes. As an illustrative example, G stars within 10 parsecs are assessed as potential old-Earth-analogue hosts. Surface temperature estimates for hypothetical inner-HZ Earth analogues are used to determine whether any such planets in these systems would be at the right stage in their late-habitable lifetimes to exhibit detectable biosignatures. Predictions from planet formation studies and biosphere evolution models suggest that only 0.36% of G stars in the solar neighbourhood could host an old-Earth-analogue. However, if the development of an Earth-like biosphere is assumed to be rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, then such planets are unlikely to be found in the solar neighbourhood - although 1000s could be present in the galaxy as a whole., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrobiology

Photosynthetic life requires sufficient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to metabolise. On Earth, plant behaviour, physiology and metabolism are sculpted around the night-day cycle by an endogenous biological circadian clock. The evolution of life was influenced by the Earth-Sun orbital dynamic, which generates the photo-environment incident on the planetary surface. In this work the unusual photo-environment of an Earth-like planet (ELP) in 3:2 spin orbit resonance is explored. Photo-environments on the ELP are longitudinally differentiated, in addition to differentiations relating to latitude and depth (for aquatic organisms) which are familiar on Earth. The light environment on such a planet could be compatible with Earth's photosynthetic life although the threat of atmospheric freeze-out and prolonged periods of darkness would present significant challenges. We emphasise the relationship between the evolution of life on a planetary body with its orbital dynamics., Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology

The future biosphere on Earth (as with its past) will be made up predominantly of unicellular microorganisms. Unicellular life was probably present for at least 2.5 Gyr before multicellular life appeared and will likely be the only form of life capable of surviving on the planet in the far future, when the ageing Sun causes environmental conditions to become more hostile to more complex forms of life. Therefore, it is statistically more likely that habitable Earth-like exoplanets we discover will be at a stage in their habitable lifetime more conducive to supporting unicellular, rather than multicellular life. The end stage of habitability on Earth is the focus of this work. A simple, latitude-based climate model incorporating eccentricity and obliquity variations is used as a guide to the temperature evolution of the Earth over the next 3 Gyr. This allows inferences to be made about potential refuges for life, particularly in mountains and cold-trap (ice) caves and what forms of life could live in these environments. Results suggest that in high latitude regions, unicellular life could persist for up to 2.8 Gyr from present. This begins to answer the question of how the habitability of Earth will evolve at local scales alongside the Sun's main sequence evolution and, by extension, how the habitability of Earth-like planets would evolve over time with their own host stars., Comment: Accepted for publication in International Journal of Astrobiology

The potential for hosting photosynthetic life on Earth-like planets within binary/multiple stellar systems was evaluated by modelling the levels of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) such planets receive. Combinations of M and G stars in: (i) close-binary systems; (ii) wide-binary systems and (iii) three-star systems were investigated and a range of stable radiation environments found to be possible. These environmental conditions allow for the possibility of familiar, but also more exotic forms of photosynthetic life, such as infrared photosynthesisers and organisms specialised for specific spectral niches., Comment: Accepted for publication in: Astrobiology

On the Earth, photosynthetic organisms are responsible for the production of virtually all of the oxygen in the atmosphere. On the land, vegetation reflects in the visible, leading to a red edge that developed about 450 Myr ago and has been proposed as a biosignature for life on extrasolar planets. However, in many regions of the Earth, and particularly where surface conditions are extreme, for example in hot and cold deserts, photosynthetic organisms can be driven into and under substrates where light is still sufficient for photosynthesis. These communities exhibit no detectable surface spectral signature to indicate life. The same is true of the assemblages of photosynthetic organisms at more than a few metres depth in water bodies. These communities are widespread and dominate local photosynthetic productivity. We review known cryptic photosynthetic communities and their productivity. We link geomicrobiology with observational astronomy by calculating the disk-averaged spectra of cryptic habitats and identifying detectable features on an exoplanet dominated by such a biota. The hypothetical cryptic photosynthesis worlds discussed here are Earth-analogs that show detectable atmospheric biomarkers like our own planet, but do not exhibit a discernable biological surface feature in the disc-averaged spectrum., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures, Astrobiology (TBP) - updated Table 1, typo in detectable O2 corrected

The discovery of extra-solar planets is one of the greatest achievements of modern astronomy. The detection of planets with a wide range of masses demonstrates that extra-solar planets of low mass exist. In this paper we describe a mission, called Darwin, whose primary goal is the search for, and characterization of, terrestrial extrasolar planets and the search for life. Accomplishing the mission objectives will require collaborative science across disciplines including astrophysics, planetary sciences, chemistry and microbiology. Darwin is designed to detect and perform spectroscopic analysis of rocky planets similar to the Earth at mid-infrared wavelengths (6 - 20 micron), where an advantageous contrast ratio between star and planet occurs. The baseline mission lasts 5 years and consists of approximately 200 individual target stars. Among these, 25 to 50 planetary systems can be studied spectroscopically, searching for gases such as CO2, H2O, CH4 and O3. Many of the key technologies required for the construction of Darwin have already been demonstrated and the remainder are estimated to be mature in the near future. Darwin is a mission that will ignite intense interest in both the research community and the wider public.