Search

The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investigating the effects of natural (e.g., solar variations and volcanic forcings) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic, land use, and land cover) forcings revealed that the anthropogenic factors have cause a two-fold increase in the occurrence probability of severe heat waves in central and mid-southern India during twentieth century. The spatial distribution of maximum HWMId values under natural and all forcings (including anthropogenic) indicates that in most places human activities have increases the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat waves. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the risk of heat waves is projected to increase tenfold during the twenty-first century. More than ~ 70% of the land areas in India is projected to be influenced by heat waves with magnitudes greater than 9. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between heat waves and deficits in precipitation. Results show that concurrent heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in most places in India during the twenty-first century.

Different meteor radars at low latitudes observed abnormally strong westward mesospheric winds around the March Equinox of 2023, that is, during the first phase of the Mesospheric Semiannual Oscillation. This event was the strongest of at least the last decade (2014–2023). The westward winds reached −80 m/s at 82 km of altitude in late March, and decreased with increasing altitude and latitude. A considerable increase in the diurnal tide amplitude was also observed. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension constrained to meteorological reanalysis up to ∼50 km does not capture the observed low‐latitude behavior. Additionally, these strong mesospheric winds developed during the westerly phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, in accordance with the filtering mechanism of gravity waves in the stratosphere proposed in previous works. Finally, analysis of SABER temperatures strongly suggests that the breaking of the migrating diurnal tide may be the main driver of these strong winds. Plain Language Summary: Around the March Equinox of 2023, abnormally strong westward winds were observed in the low latitude region at altitudes between 80 and 100 km. This event was the strongest in at least the last decade. The westward winds reached a maximum amplitude of 80 m/s at 82 km of altitude during late March, and decreased with increasing altitude and latitude. A considerable increase in the amplitude of the diurnal tide was also observed. Simulations based on a whole atmosphere global circulation model constrained to meteorological reanalysis up to ∼50 km do not capture the observed behavior. Results based on specular meteor radar and satellite measurements suggest that the strong westward winds were driven by two main factors: the filtering mechanism of eastward‐propagating gravity waves in the stratosphere and the breaking of the diurnal tide at about 85 km of altitude. Key Points: Strong mesospheric westward winds during March equinox 2023 are observed globally at low latitudesThe westward winds reached a peak of −80 m/s at 82 km, the largest in the last ten years, accompanied by an enhancement of the diurnal tideThe breaking of the DW1 plays a role in generating these strong winds, in addition to the filtering of gravity waves in the stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20th century and projections during the 21st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.