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Surface waves on Earth's magnetopause have a controlling effect upon global magnetospheric dynamics. Since spacecraft provide sparse in situ observation points, remote sensing these modes using ground-based instruments in the polar regions is desirable. However, many open conceptual questions on the expected signatures remain. Therefore, we provide predictions of key qualitative features expected in auroral, ionospheric, and ground magnetic observations through both magnetohydrodynamic theory and a global coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a magnetopause surface eigenmode. These show monochromatic oscillatory field-aligned currents, due to both the surface mode and its non-resonant Alfv\'en coupling, are present throughout the magnetosphere. The currents peak in amplitude at the equatorward edge of the magnetopause boundary layer, not the open-closed boundary as previously thought. They also exhibit slow poleward phase motion rather than being purely evanescent. We suggest the upward field-aligned current perturbations may result in periodic auroral brightenings. In the ionosphere, convection vortices circulate the poleward moving field-aligned current structures. Finally, surface mode signals are predicted in the ground magnetic field, with ionospheric Hall currents rotating perturbations by approximately (but not exactly) 90{\deg} compared to the magnetosphere. Thus typical dayside magnetopause surface modes should be strongest in the East-West ground magnetic field component. Overall, all ground-based signatures of the magnetopause surface mode are predicted to have the same frequency across L-shells, amplitudes that maximise near the magnetopause's equatorward edge, and larger latitudinal scales than for field line resonance. Implications in terms of ionospheric Joule heating and geomagnetically induced currents are discussed.

System-scale magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves within Earth's magnetosphere are often understood theoretically using box models. While these have been highly instructive in understanding many fundamental features of the various wave modes present, they neglect the complexities of geospace such as the inhomogeneities and curvilinear geometries present. Here we show global MHD simulations of resonant waves impulsively-excited by a solar wind pressure pulse. Although many aspects of the surface, fast magnetosonic (cavity/waveguide), and Alfv\'en modes present agree with the box and axially symmetric dipole models, we find some predictions for large-scale waves are significantly altered in a realistic magnetosphere. The radial ordering of fast mode turning points and Alfv\'en resonant locations may be reversed even with monotonic wave speeds. Additional nodes along field lines that are not present in the displacement/velocity occur in both the perpendicular and compressional components of the magnetic field. Close to the magnetopause the perpendicular oscillations of the magnetic field have the opposite handedness to the velocity. Finally, widely-used detection techniques for standing waves, both across and along the field, can fail to identify their presence. We explain how all these features arise from the MHD equations when accounting for a non-uniform background field and propose modified methods which might be applied to spacecraft observations.

Surface waves process the turbulent disturbances which drive dynamics in many space, astrophysical and laboratory plasma systems, with the outer boundary of Earth's magnetosphere, the magnetopause, providing an accessible environment to study them. Like waves on water, magnetopause surface waves are thought to travel in the direction of the driving solar wind, hence a paradigm in global magnetospheric dynamics of tailward propagation has been well-established. Here we show through multi-spacecraft observations, global simulations, and analytic theory that the lowest-frequency impulsively-excited magnetopause surface waves, with standing structure along the terrestrial magnetic field, propagate against the flow outside the boundary. Across a wide local time range (09-15h) the waves' Poynting flux exactly balances the flow's advective effect, leading to no net energy flux and thus stationary structure across the field also. Further down the equatorial flanks, however, advection dominates hence the waves travel downtail, seeding fluctuations at the resonant frequency which subsequently grow in amplitude via the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and couple to magnetospheric body waves. This global response, contrary to the accepted paradigm, has implications on radiation belt, ionospheric, and auroral dynamics and potential applications to other dynamical systems.

Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3., Comment: 37 pages, 22 figures

Dynamics of the dayside magnetosphere and proton radiation belt was analyzed during unusual magnetic storm on 21 January 2005. We have found that during the storm from 1712 to 2400 UT, the subsolar magnetopause was continuously located inside geosynchronous orbit due to strong compression. The compression was found to be extremely strong from 1846 to 2035 UT when the dense plasma of fast erupting filament produced the solar wind dynamic pressure Pd peaked up to >100 nPa and, in the first time, the upstream solar wind was observed at geosynchronous orbit during almost 2 hours. Under the extreme compression, the outer magnetosphere at L > 5 was pushed inward and the outer radiation belt particles with energies of several tens of keV moved earthward, became adiabatically accelerated and accumulated in the inner magnetosphere at L < 4 that produced the intensified ring current with an exceptionally long lifetime. The observations were compared with predictions of various empirical and first principles models. All the models failed to predict the magnetospheric dynamics under the extreme compression when the minimal magnetopause distance was estimated to be ~3 Re. The inconsistencies between the model predictions and observations might result from distortions of plasma measurements by extreme heliospheric conditions consisting in very fast solar wind streams (~1000 km/s) and intense fluxes of solar energetic particles. We speculated that anomalous dynamics of the magnetosphere could be well described by the models if the He abundance in the solar wind was assumed to be >20%, which is well appropriate for erupting filaments and which is in agreement with the upper 27% threshold for the He/H ratio obtained from Cluster measurements., Comment: Keywords: erupting filament, geomagnetic storm, magnetosphere boundary layers, ring current decay. J. Geophys. Res