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This article analyzes the impact of firms' workforce composition on cultural distance and export performance. On the one hand, empirical literature has shown that there are dark trade costs that hinder trade performance, among which is cultural distance; on the other hand, the literature has shown that firms' export performance is positively correlated with employees’ qualifications. Using a unique database of 59,606 French firms, we reconcile these two streams of literature by estimating a structural gravity model. We demonstrate that hiring more executives decreases the negative impact of cultural distance and that firms with a higher share of executives have a higher probability of exporting and a higher level of recorded exports. As exporting involves practicing foreign languages or managing intercultural differences, firms with a greater reliance on skilled workers who exhibit this “export culture” have a higher probability of exporting, export more products and benefit from higher export values.

This paper empirically explores the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Japanese manufacturing sector. We estimate a gravity model of FDI for 30 host countries covering the period 2005–2017, using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood to tackle the issue of zero-value observations. The results indicate that Japanese overseas investments are not only driven by traditional factors, such as market size, the yen real exchange rate, trade openness, differences in perception of corruption, and financial instability, but also by industry characteristics. In particular, we find that low technological industries characterized by growing labour costs are more likely to be relocated abroad. Furthermore, we demonstrate nonlinearities in the determinants of Japanese overseas investments depending on the host country's development, the host country's region, and the category of FDI implemented (vertical vs horizontal). ©2020 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd

The aim of this article is to analyse the main determinants of emerging markets' exchange rate movements, particularly in Asia. For this purpose, we implement a dynamic latent factor model to investigate the drivers of 24 emerging countries' exchange rate movements and decompose the patterns into three components: a global common factor, a regional factor and a country-specific factor. Our results reveal that, in the whole period of 2000–2015, the common global factor is by far the most important determinant of exchange rate variations for Asian economies and, albeit to a lesser extent, for Latin America. However, after 2005, there is a strong increase in the explanatory power of the regional factor in Asia, from 5.6% to 45.1%, and to 49.7% in the period of 2011–2015, which shows that it is becoming the dominant factor in this area. Then, we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to show that the regional factor in Asia, estimated from the dynamic latent factor model, is mainly explained by Chinese economic variables. More particularly, our results highlight that the bilateral exchange rate of China, both the onshore and the offshore rates, and the macroeconomic climate in China greatly influence the regional factor in Asia in the long-run. These results give some evidence of a Renminbi zone in the long-run and are robust to the inclusion of two other major currencies in Asia, the Japanese Yen and the Korean Won, notably in the long run.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on population health. For this purpose, we rely on a new measure of health, which not only takes into account life expectancy, but also morbidity and allows us to evaluate both quality and length of life. We apply a new instrumental variable approach, based on the diffuse characteristic of globalization, to a panel of 143 countries over the period 1990-2019 and find an overall positive association of FDI with health. However, we also demonstrate that this positive relationship decreases with countries' per capita GDP. We reveal that developing economies have strongly benefited from inward FDI but, more developed economies less so. For the most-developed countries in our sample, the impact is even negative, but we demonstrate that higher employment protection, which is associated with a lower level of job insecurity, allows countries to decrease this pernicious effect.

Has the integration of European, North American and Asian natural gas markets been fostered over the last few years by growing LNG export capacities and an increasing market share of spot transactions? This is the key question that this article sets out to answer. For this purpose, we develop bivariate error correction models with structural breaks and asymmetric responses among gas references prices, oil prices, and coal prices. We use daily prices of all reference prices spanning from January 12, 2004, to January 12, 2018, for the North American, Asian and European areas. We show that if European and U.S. gas prices are co-integrated when multiple breaks are allowed, their respective markets cannot be considered integrated. However, our results show that the degree of interdependence between European and American prices is increasing, whereas the degree of interdependence between gas and crude oil prices is decreasing. More surprisingly, we also highlight that reversions to long-term equilibria both between the Henry Hub (HH) and the National Balancing Point (NBP) and between the HH and the Japan Korean Marker (JKM) are highly asymmetric, a pattern that could be intuitively interpreted as the consequence of market arbitrage strategies by exporting countries in a context of oversupplied markets.

This study analyzes the effects of a cluster policy on firms’ productivity, employment and total fixed assets in the French optic/photonic industry. Exploiting firm-level data between 1996 and 2008...

This article discusses key comparative advantages of wine-producing nations and suggest prospective views on their evolution. Our methodology is twofold. First, we study comparative advantages in 16 countries using Porter's diamond. Then, we report results from a survey in which wine economists are asked to assess the future trade performance of these countries. Results are relatively consistent across methods regarding the future “heavy weights” like China, but also New Zealand and Chile, countries show the greatest potential to succeed in the future global wine trade. It is also expected that Georgia, the United Kingdom, and Australia play an important role, although to a lesser extent. Our findings indicate that comparative advantages in wine trade are neither uniform nor static; especially, terroir is no longer sufficient. The diamond approach contradicts experts from two countries in particular, France and Argentina, suggesting that experts put great emphasis on demand and market structures as key trade determinants for the future. (JEL Classifications: F14, Q17)

National audience; Alors que la compétitivité s’impose comme un objectif prioritaire de politique économique, il n’existe toujours pas, dans la sphère économique, de consensus établi quant à sa définition. Cet ouvrage présente les grands débats autour de la notion de compétitivité nationale et en propose une définition précise, fondée sur l’évaluation des gains à l’ouverture internationale pour un pays.À partir d’un cadrage théorique, riche et actuel, des effets de l’ouverture internationale sur la richesse des pays et d’une revue de différents indicateurs dits de compétitivité, l’ouvrage répond à plusieurs questions incontournables : pourquoi la compétitivité d’un pays doit-elle être différenciée de celle de ses entreprises et de celle de ses régions ? Pour quelles raisons un pays peut-il être à la fois plus productif et moins compétitif qu’un autre ? Pourquoi la mesure de la compétitivité nationale doit-elle aller au-delà du seul critère des performances à l’exportation ? Dans le contexte actuel de mondialisation, comment le gouvernement d’un pays doit-il penser sa politique de compétitivité ?

International audience; We examine the impact of a “near-zero” interest rate policy on bank output. Specifically, we document the existence of negative banking output on deposits for French banks from 2009. We show a structural break in banks' long run interest rate pass-through that explains this change in their business model during the 2003–2012 period. Since the crisis, banks are desperately seeking cash, and deposits have become a cost center. This is due to the new monetary policy and reveals banks' adaptation to the new banking regulation on liquidity. This new environment raises questions about banks' increasing exposure to interest rate risk and shows the necessity of coordinating monetary and regulatory policies.

This paper investigates the impact of both exchange rate and futures price volatility on bilateral cereals exports from France. Using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator developed by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) to deal with the problem of zero trade ows when estimating a gravity equation, we show that exchange rate uncertainty has a strong negative impact on French cereals trade. Surprisingly, we nd also that higher futures price volatility is associated with increased French cereals exports. Since the PPML method allows for commodity specific estimation of this relationship, we demonstrate that these results are rather commodity-specific and not uniform across individual cereals commodities. For example, we nd that realized futures price volatility has a significant and positive impact on French exports of four commodities: barley, durum wheat, maize and oats. We suggest that the storage behaviour of grains elevators and physical traders can explain this seemingly counter-intuitive result. In contrast to currencies, basis variability, i.e. the instability surrounding the spread between commercial spot prices and futures prices, can matter more than price instability, and can lead market participants to reduce their stocks, i.e. to sell, when the level of this instability is high.

This paper explores the relationship between six indicators of governance and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Japanese manufacturing industry. We estimate a gravity model of FDI for 30 host countries covering the period 2005-2011, employing Heckman's two-step sample selection correction in order to tackle the issue of zero-value observations. The results indicate that Japanese overseas investments are driven by host market size, yen real exchange rate, macroeconomic stability, resource endowments and policy variables. In particular, we find that confidence societal rules, control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and private sector policies are important factors driving FDI.

International audience; This study investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock and bilateral export flows of the three largest exporter of the euro area. Using a dynamic panel model relying on the system GMM estimator, we find strong evidence of a complementarity relationship between FDI and trade for Germany, especially with emerging countries. Results concerning France are less robust and only show a weak positive effect of FDI on trade with emerging economies. Finally, exports and FDI are found to be substitutes for Italy with high income economies.; Cet article étudie la relation entre le stock d'IDE sortants et les flux de commerce bilatéraux des trois principaux exportateurs de la zone euro. A partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique estimé par la Méthode des Moments Généralisés (GMM) en système, nous montrons qu'il existe une forte relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce pour l'Allemagne, en particulier avec les pays émergents. Les résultats concernant la France sont moins prononcés et indiquent uniquement une faible relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce avec les pays émergents. Enfin, une relation significative de substitution est trouvée dans le cas des flux commerciaux italiens en direction des pays les plus riches de notre échantillon.

International audience; This paper examines the evolution of the patterns of specialisation of 11 Euro area countries in the period 1990-2008, by analysing their comparative and technological advantages. We estimate conditional densities and Markov transition probabilities to examine both the external shape of the distribution of technological and comparative advantages and the intra-distribution dynamics. Our results point out that there is, on average, high persistence of the industrial specialisation patterns of the 11 Euro area countries under scrutiny, confirming a lock-in effect, especially in the case of Italy. Our results for technological specialisation reveal high mobility of technological advantages over the same period, especially for Spain.

International audience; This paper investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and both exports and imports from Japan. Using the Poisson pseudomaximum likelihood (PPML) estimator developed by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) to deal with the problem of zero trade flows when estimating a gravity equation, we show that the complementary relationship between FDI and exports is overestimated when using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. The PPML method also allows sectoral estimation of the relationship. We find that whether outward FDI creates or replaces trade depends on the industry under scrutiny. Our results indicate that the complementary relationship between FDI and trade is dominant in the Japanese manufacturing sector, especially in electric machinery, transportation equipement and precision machinery. We find also that Japanese overseas investments substitute for exports in chemicals products and for both exports and imports in general machinery.

This article investigates the use of a series of composite indicators as a measure of global competitiveness. Using Spearman and Kendall (1938) rank correlation tests, we show that rankings resulting from those competitiveness indices are highly correlated. Furthermore, a critical analysis of these indicators indicates that they cannot be used as an empirical measure of countries competitiveness. Indeed, the lack of theoretical and empirical basis for the choice of variables and weights inside the indices brings some interpretations problems in terms of economic policy. "Scores" obtained using these indicators have to be taken with caution. These indices have to be rather used as indicatory variables or competitiveness benchmarks resulting in dashboard., Cet article analyse l'utilisation d'une batterie d'indicateurs composites comme mesure de la compétitivité. À partir de tests de rangs de Spearman et Kendall (1938), nous montrons que les classements induits par ces différents indices de compétitivité sont très fortement corrélés. De plus, à partir d'une analyse critique de ces indicateurs, nous prouvons qu'ils ne peuvent être utilisés comme mesure de la compétitivité des pays. En effet, le manque de fondements théorique et empirique dans le choix des variables et leurs pondérations induisent des problèmes d'interprétations en termes de politique économique. Les " scores " obtenus à ces différents indicateurs sont donc à interpréter avec prudence et les indices composites doivent plutôt servir de variables indicatrices ou benchmark de la compétitivité résultant sur des tableaux de bords.

Cet article étudie la relation entre le stock d’IDE sortants et les flux de commerce bilatéraux des 4 principaux exportateurs de la zone euro. A partir d’un modèle en panel dynamique estimé par la Méthode des Moments Généralisés (GMM) en système, nous montrons qu’il existe une forte relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce pour l’Allemagne, en particulier avec les pays émergents. Les résultats concernant la France sont moins prononcés et indiquent uniquement une faible relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce avec les pays émergents. Enfin, une relation significative de substitution est trouvée dans le cas des flux commerciaux italiens en direction des autres pays développés.

Cet article étudie l’impact de l’introduction d’une mesure élargie de la compétitivité structurelle dans les équations d’exportation tirées du modèle d’Armington (1969). À partir d’un modèle en panel composé de 11 pays de la zone euro sur la période 1996-2008 et d’un indicateur de compétitivité globale, nous montrons que la compétitivité structurelle ne peut se résumer au seul facteur innovation. Nous montrons, en outre, que la prise en compte de facteurs de développement financier, de développement humain, d’efficacité des entreprises et d’infrastructure des pays considérés permet une meilleure modélisation des équations d’exportation. Cette étude apporte donc un nouvel éclairage sur les différences de performances commerciales au sein de la zone euro grâce à une mesure plus élargie de la compétitivité structurelle. Il est notamment souligné que la surperformance allemande provient d’une compétitivité-coût accrue conjuguée à des produits innovants mais également d’une politique fiscale avantageuse et d’une plus grande facilité d’accès au crédit pour les entreprises., This paper investigates the use of a widened measure of non-price competitiveness in the exports’ equations of Armington (1969). We use a panel data analysis using annual data for 11 European countries and focus on a global competitiveness indicator. Our results show that the non-price competitiveness can’t be measured only by a proxy of innovation. Therefore, we also show that non-price competitiveness is also reflected with other factors like financial and human development, firm effectiveness and countries’ infrastructure. Our study allows a better understanding of discrepancies among European countries exports’ performances. We finally show that the German export performance is mainly due to a better cost-competitiveness, to innovative products, to a lower tax burden and to a better credit access for German firms.

International audience; This article investigates the impact of offshoring on the export performances of French, German and Italian automotive firms. It is argued that the different offshoring strategies implemented by the main European car-makers are responsible for the discrepancies in export performances of France, Germany and Italy on the world automotive market. Relying on data from auto parts and components, input-output tables and the foreign content of automotive production, it is found that French, German and Italian car-makers have different offshoring strategies. German automotive firms rely more on the international fragmentation of production, while French and Italian ones offshore their production more intensively. Focusing on French and German export performance, it is shown that the relatively low export performance of France in the automotive industry since the end of the 1990s is mainly the result of an increase in offshoring lead by Renault and PSA to Eastern European Countries, coupled with rising labour costs in the French automotive sector.

To investigate the impact of trade specialization on exports in eight central and eastern European countries from 1994 to 2008, a dynamic method based on "revealed comparative advantages" is used. Russia and Ukraine have increased their specialization in raw materials, while Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have developed new comparative advantages, mainly in the automobile industry. A constant market share analysis shows that the exportations of Russia and Ukraine are, since 2000, entirely due to trade specialization whereas, in the six other countries, the performance in terms of exports mainly results from their external competitiveness, even though specialization is also a positive factor.; Cet article a pour objet d'étudier l'évolution et l'impact des spécialisations commerciales sur les performances à l'exportation de huit pays d'Europe centrale et orientale durant la période 1994-2008. À partir d'une étude dynamique des Avantages Comparatifs Révélés (ACR), il montre que la Russie et l'Ukraine ont renforcé leurs spécialisations dans les matières premières alors que les autres PECO ont développé de nouveaux avantages comparatifs, principalement dans le secteur automobile. La méthode Constant Market Share Analysis établit ainsi que, depuis 2000, les performances commerciales russes et ukrainiennes reposent entièrement sur leurs spécialisations commerciales tandis que celles des autres PECO résultent surtout d'une bonne compétitivité extérieure et ce, même si l'effet " spécialisation " est devenu positif.