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Shared groundwater resources between Mexico and the United States are facing unprecedented stressors. We reflect on how to improve water security for groundwater systems in the border region. Our reflection begins with the state of groundwater knowledge, and the challenges groundwater resources face from a physical, societal and institutional perspective. We conclude that the extent of ongoing cooperation frameworks, joint and remaining research efforts, from which alternative strategies can emerge, still need to be developed. The way forward offers a variety of cooperation models as the future offers rather complex, shared and multidisciplinary water challenges to the Mexico–US borderlands.

The development of appropriate water management strategies requires, in part, a methodology for quantifying and evaluating the impact of water policy decisions on regional stakeholders. In this work, we describe the framework we are developing to enhance the body of resources available to policy makers, farmers, and other community members in their e orts to understand, quantify, and assess the often competing objectives water consumers have with respect to usage. The foundation for the framework is the construction of a simulation-based optimization software tool using two existing software packages. In particular, we couple a robust optimization software suite (DAKOTA) with the USGS MF-OWHM water management simulation tool to provide a flexible software environment that will enable the evaluation of one or multiple (possibly competing) user-defined (or stakeholder) objectives. We introduce the individual software components and outline the communication strategy we defined for the coupled development. We present numerical results for case studies related to crop portfolio management with several defined objectives. The objectives are not optimally satisfied for any single user class, demonstrating the capability of the software tool to aid in the evaluation of a variety of competing interests.

The hydrologic framework of the Santa Clara Valley in northern California was redefined on the basis of new data and a new hydrologic model. The regional groundwater flow systems can be subdivided into upper-aquifer and lower-aquifer systems that form a convergent flow system within a basin bounded by mountains and hills on three sides and discharge to pumping wells and the southern San Francisco Bay. Faults also control the flow of groundwater within the Santa Clara Valley and subdivide the aquifer system into three subregions. After decades of development and groundwater depletion that resulted in substantial land subsidence, Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD) and the local water purveyors have refilled the basin through conservation and importation of water for direct use and artificial recharge. The natural flow system has been altered by extensive development with flow paths toward major well fields. Climate has not only affected the cycles of sedimentation during the glacial periods over the past million years, but interannual to interdecadal climate cycles also have affected the supply and demand components of the natural and anthropogenic inflows and outflows of water in the valley. Streamflow has been affected by development of the aquifer system and regulated flow from reservoirs, as well as conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Interaquifer flow through water-supply wells screened across multiple aquifers is an important component to the flow of groundwater and recapture of artificial recharge in the Santa Clara Valley. Wellbore flow and depth-dependent chemical and isotopic data indicate that flow into wells from multiple aquifers, as well as capture of artificial recharge by pumping of water-supply wells, predominantly is occurring in the upper 500 ft (152 m) of the aquifer system. Artificial recharge represents about one-half of the inflow of water into the valley for the period 1970–1999. Most subsidence is occurring below 250 ft (76 m), and most pumpage occurs within the upper-aquifer system between 300 and 650 ft (between 91 and 198 m) below land surface. Overall, the natural quality of most groundwater in the Santa Clara Valley is good. Isotopic data indicate that artificial recharge is occurring throughout the shallower parts of the upper-aquifer system and that recent recharge (less than 50 yr old) occurs throughout most of the basin in the upper-aquifer system, but many of the wells in the center of the basin with deeper well screens do not contain tritium and recent recharge. Age dates indicate that the groundwater in the upper-aquifer system generally is less than 2000 yr old, and groundwater in the lower-aquifer system generally ranges from 16,700 to 39,900 yr old. Depth-dependent sampling indicates that wellbores are the main path for vertical flow between aquifer layers. Isotopic data indicate as much as 60% of water pumped from production wells originated as artificial recharge. Shallow aquifers not only contain more recent recharge but may be more susceptible to anthropogenic and natural contamination, as evidenced by trace occurrences of iron, nitrate, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in selected water-supply wells. Water-resource management issues are centered on sustaining a reliable and good-quality source of water to the residents and industries of the valley. While the basin has been refilled, increased demand owing to growth and droughts could result in renewed storage depletion and the related potential adverse effects of land subsidence and seawater intrusion. The new hydrologic model demonstrates the importance of the aquifer layering, faults, and stream channels in relation to groundwater flow and infiltration of recharge. This model provides a means to analyze water resource issues because it separates the supply and demand components of the inflows and outflows.

The dependency of surface- and groundwater flows and aquifer hydraulic properties on deformation induced by changes in aquifer head is not accounted for in the standard version of MODFLOW. A new USGS integrated hydrologic model, MODFLOW-OWHM, incorporates this dependency by linking subsidence and mesh deformation with changes in aquifer transmissivity and storage coefficient, and with flows that also depend on aquifer characteristics and land-surface geometry. This new deformation-dependent approach is being used for the further development of the integrated Central Valley hydrologic model (CVHM) in California. Preliminary results from this application and from hypothetical test cases of similar systems show that changes in canal flows, stream seepage, and evapotranspiration from groundwater (ETgw) are sensitive to deformation. Deformation feedback has been shown to also have an indirect effect on conjunctive surface- and groundwater use components with increased stream seepage and streamflows influencing surface-water deliveries and return flows. In the Central Valley model, land subsidence may significantly degrade the ability of the major canals to deliver surface water from the Delta to the San Joaquin and Tulare basins. Subsidence can also affect irrigation demand and ETgw, which, along with altered surface-water supplies, causes a feedback response resulting in changed estimates of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This modeling feature also may improve the impact assessment of dewatering-induced land subsidence/uplift (following irrigation pumping or coal-seam gas extraction) on surface receptors, inter-basin transfers, and surface infrastructure integrity.

Summary The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

A three-dimensional (3D) texture model was developed to help characterize the aquifer system of Central Valley, California (USA), for a groundwater flow model. The 52,000-km2 Central Valley aquifer system consists of heterogeneous valley-fill deposits. The texture model was developed by compiling and analyzing approximately 8,500 drillers’ logs, describing lithologies up to 950 m below land surface. The lithologic descriptions on the logs were simplified into a binary classification of coarse- and fine-grained. The percentage of coarse-grained sediment, or texture, was then computed for each 15-m depth interval. The model was developed by 3D kriging of the percentage of coarse-grained deposits onto a 1.6-km spatial grid at 15-m depth intervals from land surface down to 700 m below land surface. The texture model reflects the known regional, spatial, and vertical heterogeneity in the aquifer system. The texture model correlates to sediment source areas, independently mapped geomorphic provinces, and factors affecting the development of alluvial fans, thus demonstrating the utility of using tcdrillers’ logs as a source of lithologic information. The texture model is upscaled to a layered groundwater flow model for use in defining the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system.

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3–23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15–50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10–25 yr) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2–6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer.

Hydrologic time series of groundwater levels, streamflow, precipitation, and tree-ring indices from four alluvial basins in the southwestern United States were spectrally analyzed, and then frequency components were reconstructed to isolate variability due to climatic variations on four time scales. Reconstructed components (RCs), from each time series, were compared to climatic indices like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North American Monsoon (NAM), and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to reveal that as much as 80% of RC variation can be correlated with climate variations on corresponding time scales. In most cases, the hydrologic RCs lag behind the climate indices by 1–36 months. In all four basins, PDO-like components were the largest contributors to cyclic hydrologic variability. Generally, California time series have more variation associated with PDO and ENSO than the Arizona series, and Arizona basins have more variation associated with NAM. ENSO cycles were present in all four basins but were the largest relative contributors in southeastern Arizona. Groundwater levels show a wide range of climate responses that can be correlated from well to well in the various basins, with climate responses found in unconfined and confined aquifers from pumping centers to mountain fronts.

The combination of flowmeter and depth-dependent water-quality data was used to evaluate the quantity and source of high-chloride water yielded from different depths to eight production wells in the Pleasant Valley area of southern California. The wells were screened from 117 to 437 m below land surface, and in most cases, flow from the aquifer into the wells was not uniformly distributed throughout the well screen. Wells having as little as 6 m of screen in the overlying upper aquifer system yielded as much as 50% of their water from the upper system during drought periods, while the deeper parts of the well screens yielded 15% or less of the total yield of the wells. Mixing of water within wells during pumping degraded higher-quality water with poorer-quality water from deeper depths, and in some cases with poorer-quality water from the overlying upper aquifer system. Changes in the mixture of water within a well, resulting from changes in the distribution of flow into the well, changed the quality of water from the surface discharge of wells over time. The combination of flowmeter and depth-dependent water quality data yielded information about sources of high-chloride water to wells that was not available on the basis of samples collected from nearby observation wells. Changing well design to eliminate small quantities of poor-quality water from deeper parts of the well may improve the quality of water from some wells without greatly reducing well yield.

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accu- rate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate pro- jection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simu- lation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive manage- ment, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara- Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interan- nual to interdecadal time scales of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/oC, compared to 0.9 m/oC in observations. This close agree- ment shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excur- sions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and - when the GCM forecast skills are ade- quate - for near term predictions. (KEY TERMS: ground water hydrology; surface water hydrology; climate change; climate cycles; modeling; water management.)

A new method for frequency analysis of hydrologic time series was developed to facilitate the estimation and reconstruction of individual or groups of frequencies from hydrologic time-series and facilitate the comparison of these isolated time-series components across data types, between different hydrologic settings within a watershed, between watersheds, and across frequencies. While climate-related variations in inflow to and outflow from aquifers have often been neglected, the development and management of ground-water and surface-water resources has required the inclusion of the assessment of the effects of climatic variability on the supply and demand and sustainability of use. The regional assessment of climatic variability of surface-water and ground-water flow throughout the southwestern United States required this new systematic method of hydrologic time-series analysis. To demonstrate the application of this new method, six hydrologic time-series from the Mojave River Basin, California were analyzed. The results indicate that climatic variability exists in all the data types and are partially coincident with known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. The time-series also indicate lagged correlations between tree-ring indices, streamflow, stream base flow, and ground-water levels. These correlations and reconstructed time-series can be used to better understand the relation of hydrologic response to climatic forcings and to facilitate the simulation of streamflow and ground-water recharge for a more realistic approach to water-resource management.

Ground water production wells commonly are designed to maximize well yield and, therefore, may be screened over several water-bearing zones. These water-bearing zones usually are identified, and their hydrogeologic characteristics and water quality are inferred, on the basis of indirect data such as geologic and geophysical logs. Production well designs based on these data may result in wells that are drilled deeper than necessary and are screened through zones having low permeability or poor-quality ground water. In this study, we examined the application of flowmeter logging and depth-dependent water quality samples for the improved design of production wells in a complex hydrogeologic setting. As a demonstration of these techniques, a flowmeter log and depth-dependent water quality data were collected from a long-screened production well within a multilayered coastal aquifer system in the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura County, California. Results showed that the well yields most of its water from four zones that constitute 58% of the screened interval. The importance of these zones to well yield was not readily discernible from indirect geologic or geophysical data. The flowmeter logs and downhole water quality data also show that small quantities of poor-quality water could degrade the overall quality of water from the well. The data obtained from one well can be applied to other proposed wells in the same hydrologic basin. The application of flowmeter and depth-dependent water quality data to well design can reduce installation costs and improve the quantity and quality of water produced from wells in complex multiple-aquifer systems.

The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity in layered aquifer systems commonly is needed for model simulations of ground-water flow and transport. In previous studies, time-drawdown data or flowmeter data were used individually, but not in combination, to estimate hydraulic conductivity. In this study, flowmeter data and time-drawdown data collected from a long-screened production well and nearby monitoring wells are combined to estimate the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity in a complex multilayer coastal aquifer system. Flowmeter measurements recorded as a function of depth delineate nonuniform inflow to the wellbore, and this information is used to better discretize the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity using analytical and numerical methods. The time-drawdown data complement the flowmeter data by giving insight into the hydraulic response of aquitards when flow rates within the wellbore are below the detection limit of the flowmeter. The combination of these field data allows for the testing of alternative conceptual models of radial flow to the wellbore.

[1] Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater– surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supplyconstrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

MODPATH-LGR is a particle tracking post-processing program for computing three-dimensional flow paths for steady-state and transient groundwater flow in models with local-grid refinement (sometimes called embedded models). Locally refined grids consist of a larger regional-scale parent model and one or more smaller embedded local-scale child models. This program uses output produced by MODFLOWLGR, in which child grids in parent grids are refined by using the Shared-Node Local Grid Refinement (LGR) package of the three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model MODFLOW published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The particle tracking scheme is based on MODPATH, which uses an analytical expression for particle movement within each finite-difference cell. Particles are tracked among cells until discharged through model boundaries, weak sinks, or other designated discharge zones. MODPATHLGR tracks particles between the parent and child models by using flows calculated at the interface boundaries. Flows calculated by MODFLOW-LGR are modified to account for fractional finite-difference cells along the shared-node interface between parent and child models. Required program input includes standard MODPATH input files for the parent and child models and a MODPATH-LGR control file. This documentation describes how particles are transferred between parent and child models and demonstrates program operation with two hypothetical steady-state xsimulations.

The extension of MODFLOW onto the landscape with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates fully coupled simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow and runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. This allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within "water-balance subregions" comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Simulation of micro-agriculture in the Pajaro Valley and macro-agriculture in the Central Valley are used to demonstrate the utility of MF-FMP. For Pajaro Valley, the simulation of an aquifer storage and recovery system and related coastal water distribution system to supplant coastal pumpage was analyzed subject to climate variations and additional supplemental sources such as local runoff. For the Central Valley, analysis of conjunctive use from different hydrologic settings of northern and southern subregions shows how and when precipitation, surface water, and groundwater are important to conjunctive use. The examples show that through MF-FMP's ability to simulate natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrologic cycle, the distribution and dynamics of supply and demand can be analyzed, understood, and managed. This analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding them in the simulation and are difficult to estimate a priori.

[1] Water levels in aquifers typically vary in response to time-varying rates of recharge, suggesting the possibility of inferring time-varying recharge rates on the basis of long-term water level records. Presumably, in the southwestern United States (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, southern California, and southern Utah), rates of mountain front recharge to alluvial aquifers depend on variations in precipitation rates due to known climate cycles such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This investigation examined the inverse application of a one-dimensional analytical model for periodic flow described by Lloyd R. Townley in 1995 to estimate periodic recharge variations on the basis of variations in long-term water level records using southwest aquifers as the case study. Time-varying water level records at various locations along the flow line were obtained by simulation of forward models of synthetic basins with applied sinusoidal recharge of either a single period or composite of multiple periods of length similar to known climate cycles. Periodic water level components, reconstructed using singular spectrum analysis (SSA), were used to calibrate the analytical model to estimate each recharge component. The results demonstrated that periodic recharge estimates were most accurate in basins with nearly uniform transmissivity and the accuracy of the recharge estimates depends on monitoring well location. A case study of the San Pedro Basin, Arizona, is presented as an example of calibrating the analytical model to real data.

This report presents a FORTRAN computer program that generates simulated time-series data as output from the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow Model at user-specified point locations or a collection of points that compose a profile through the modeled region. The program can save time-series data at user-specified locations for simulated water levels, drawdown, critical head, compaction, subsidence, streamflow, streamflow stage, and streamflow leakage. A set of locations also can be specified to create timeseries profiles through the model. These data can be used to establish the performance of the model and can help with model calibration and other forms of flow-system and water-resource analysis.