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The Global Climate in 2015–2019 is part of the WMO Statements on Climate providing authoritative information on the state of the climate and impacts. It builds on operational monitoring systems at global, regional and national scales.

Agriculture is deeply interconnected with weather and climate, the main drivers of agri- culture production, but also the dominant factors in the overall variability of food production. Agri- culture constitutes the principal livelihood of 70% of the world's poor; many of them are hungry and living in vulnerable, climate-sensitive areas. Since the undernourished population reached 1 billion persons in 2009, raising food production by some 70% to meet the needs of a projected world popula- tion of 9.1 billion people in 2050 may be one of the greatest challenges of the century. In addition, changes in climatic conditions are already having impacts on agriculture and the use of natural re- sources for food production. Climate science has much to offer in addressing these challenges, espe- cially with respect to the characterisation of agroclimatic resources and development of climate- responsive food and agriculture policies, programmes and practices. However, as food systems expand into marginal and vulnerable areas, the need for a renewed, holistic focus is becoming evident, taking into account ecological, economic and social perspectives. Climate and agriculture services must therefore consider climate as a resource, understand current and future vulnerabilities and risks, and develop synergies that embrace innovation in climate science in order to facilitate sustainable agri- culture and food security. The emerging ability of climate science to provide timely and accurate climate information, together with innovative tools and methods for analysis, presents opportunities for managing current climate risks and for initiating strategic climate-resilient adaptation in agri- culture. However, to make effective use of these advancements, action-oriented climate advice should integrate information on different time scales (intra-seasonal, seasonal and long-term) for risk/ opportunity management and strategies for optimal and sustainable use of land, water and genetic resources. Strong partnerships and collaboration among international institutions, national hydro- meteorological services, agricultural extension agencies, national research institutions, community- based organisations and social networks are a prerequisite for the advancement of action-oriented ad- vice. All of these efforts present key challenges, but offer immense opportunities, for both climate science and agriculture services, with respect to supporting sustainable agriculture and food security.

To develop informed decisions on practical adaptation strategies in the WANA region, breakout groups were constituted for four different sectors: Crops; Livestock, Grasslands and Rangelands; Land Use, Forestry, Fisheries and Aquaculture; and Institutions, Policy and Cooperation. Summaries of the discussions in the different breakout groups are presented in this chapter. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.

The International Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa (WANA) was held at the Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR) from 13 to 16 November 2011. It was jointly sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Association of Agricultural Research Institutions in the Near East and North Africa (AARINENA), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), the Global Forum for Agricultural Research (GFAR), the Ohio State University, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, the Meteorological Department of the State of Kuwait and the European Union. The Conference was attended by around 80 participants from 18 countries and nine international and regional organizations and institutions.

Western Asia and Northern Africa (WANA) region is considered to be one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In particular, dry areas characterized by low and unpredictable rainfall, long dry seasons, scarce water resources, rural poverty, dependence on agriculture, limited cropping/livestock options and low level of technological adoption contribute to vulnerability. Current vulnerabilities are likely to be exacerbated further by increasing climate variability and climate change. Agricultural productivity in the WANA region is likely to suffer losses because of high temperature, drought, and soil degradation, which, in turn will put the food security of many countries under threat. Many countries in the region are major food importers, and climate change impact may increase this dependence on imports. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that a total of 25 million people are under-nourished in the Western Asia and Northern Africa region, and climate change may further exacerbate the food insecurity situation. Improving adaptation capacities through sustainable management and monitoring of rangelands, improved soil and water management and conservation as well as with non-structural measures such as crop insurance can reduce the impact of climate change on livelihoods. However, developing policies, legislation and action plans that integrate climate change considerations are the pre-requisite for enhancing adaptation in agriculture, sustainable livelihoods and improved food security.

Part I Climate Change in West Asia and North Africa 1 Climate Change in West Asia and North Africa (WANA): Overview Mannava V.K. Sivakumar, Alex C. Ruane, and Jose Camacho 2 Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture and Food Security in the Western Asia and Northern Africa Region Ramasamy Selvaraju Part II Climate Change and Environment 3 Climate Change and Soil Quality in the WANA Region Rattan Lal 4 Conserving Green and Blue Water in the WANA Region Hamed Daly-Hassen, Yves Birot, Carlos Gracia and Marc Palahi 5 Climate Change and Land Use in the WANA Region with a Specific Reference to Morocco Mostafa Ibrahim and Rattan Lal 6 Responses of Insect Pests to Climate Change: Effects and Interactions of Temperature, CO2 on Soil Quality Vanessa L. Muilenberg and Daniel A. Herms 7 Climate Change and Locusts in the WANA Region Keith Cressman Part III Climate Change and Food Security: Perspectives from WANA Sub-Regions 8 Climate Change Impact on WANA: Key Researchable Issues and Proposed Measures Ibrahim Hamdan and Susanna Smets 9 Climate Variability and Change in North African Countries F. Driouech, S. Ben Rached, T. El Heirech 10 Climate Change in Drylands of the Eastern Mediterranean: from Assessment Methods to Adaptation Strategies E. De Pauw and W. Gobel 11 Climate Change and Food Security in the Nile Valley and Red Sea Ayman F. Abou Hadid 12 Food Security and Climate Change in West Asia Ibrahim Ortas and Rattan Lal Part IV Mitigation and Adaptation Options for Different Agroeconomic Sectors in WANA 13 Mitigation and Adaptation Options for Rainfed Agriculture in West Asia and North Africa Awni Taimeh 14 Mitigation and Adaptation Options of Climate Change in Irrigated Agriculture in Arab Countries Dia El-Din El Quosy 15 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Options for the Livestock Sector in the West Asia and North Africa Markos Tibbo and Jeannette van de Steeg 16 Afforestation Potential in the WANA Region to Sequester Carbon and Improve Soil Quality Roger A. Williams Part V Policy, Financial, Institutional and Cooperation Issues 17 Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into the Development Agenda Nasri Haddad and Kamel Shideed 18 Possible Financial Innovations and Market Mechanisms at the National Level to Cope with Climate Change in WANA Region S.V.R.K. Prabhakar 19 Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the Arab World: A Summary of Case Studies from Syria, Tunisia and Yemen Clemens Breisinger, Perrihan Al-Riffai and Manfred Wiebelt 20 Human Dimensions of Climate Change Adaptation: Factors that Influence Behaviours Eric Toman and Richard Moore Part VI Regional Agricultural Adaptation and Mitigation Framework for Climate Change in WANA 21 Regional Framework for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the WANA Region Ghassan Hamdallah 22 Adaptation Strategies for Different Sectors in the WANA Region - Summaries of Breakout Group Discussions Mannava V.K. Sivakumar, Faisal Awawdeh, Nasri Haddad, Ibrahim Hamdan, Mark Holderness, Rattan Lal, Ibrahim Ortas, and Selvaraju Ramasamy Part VII Conference Declaration 23 Kuwait Declaration

Groundwater, the most assured widely available source of irrigation water, influences India’s industrial and agricultural growth (Rao et al. 1996). About 12.5% of India’s annual precipitation percolates into the groundwater, where it is protected from evapotranspiration. Demand for water by the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors has increased considerably over the years, resulting in unsustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. The number of wells has increased from 7.78 to 9.98 million (dug out), 2.13 to 4.77 million (shallow tube) and 33.3 to 49.1 million (deep tube) over the last 10 years. Continuous cropping reduces potential recharge by reducing downward flux of rainfall (O’Connell et al. 1995). Although vast, India’s groundwater resources are not inexhaustible, as evidenced by continuous decline in groundwater levels in regions such as the Coimbatore district in western Tamil Nadu.

The traditional reductionist approach to science has a tendency to create 'islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance', with a much stronger focus on analysis of scientific inputs rather than synthesis of socially relevant outcomes. This might be the principal reason why intended end users of climate information generally fail to embrace what the climate science community has to offer. The translation of climate information into real-life action requires 3 essential components: salience (the perceived relevance of the information), credibility (the perceived technical quality of the information) and legitimacy (the perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared). We explore each of these components using 3 case studies focused on dryland cropping in Australia, India and Brazil. In regards to 'salience' we discuss the challenge for climate science to be 'policy-relevant', using Australian drought policy as an example. In a village in southern India 'credibility' was gained through engagement between scientists and risk managers with the aim of building social capital, achieved only at high cost to science institutions. Finally, in Brazil we found that 'legitimacy' is a fragile, yet renewable resource that needs to be part of the package for successful climate applications; legitimacy can be easily eroded but is difficult to recover. We conclude that climate risk management requires holistic solutions derived from cross-disciplinary and participatory, user-oriented research. Approaches that combine climate, agroecological and socioeconomic models provide the scientific capabilities for establishment of 'borderless' institutions without disciplinary constraints. Such institutions could provide the necessary support and flexibility to deliver the social benefits of climate science across diverse contexts. Our case studies show that this type of solution is already being applied, and suggest that the climate science community attempt to address existing institutional constraints, which still impede climate risk management.