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Abstract Background Considering multiple endpoints in clinical trials provide a more comprehensive understanding of treatment effects and may lead to increased power or reduced sample size, which may be beneficial in rare diseases. Besides the small sample sizes, allocation bias is an issue that affects the validity of these trials. We investigate the impact of allocation bias on testing decisions in clinical trials with multiple endpoints and offer a tool for selecting an appropriate randomization procedure (RP). Methods We derive a model for quantifying the effect of allocation bias depending on the RP in the case of two-arm parallel group trials with continuous multiple endpoints. We focus on two approaches to analyze multiple endpoints, either the Šidák procedure to show efficacy in at least one endpoint and the all-or-none procedure to show efficacy in all endpoints. Results To evaluate the impact of allocation bias on the test decision we propose a biasing policy for multiple endpoints. The impact of allocation on the test decision is measured by the family-wise error rate of the Šidák procedure and the type I error rate of the all-or-none procedure. Using the biasing policy we derive formulas to calculate these error rates. In simulations we show that, for the Šidák procedure as well as for the all-or-none procedure, allocation bias leads to inflation of the mean family-wise error and mean type I error, respectively. The strength of this inflation is affected by the choice of the RP. Conclusion Allocation bias should be considered during the design phase of a trial to increase validity. The developed methodology is useful for selecting an appropriate RP for a clinical trial with multiple endpoints to minimize allocation bias effects.

Abstract Purpose In the context of clinical research, there is an increasing need for new study designs that help to incorporate already available data. With the help of historical controls, the existing information can be utilized to support the new study design, but of course, inclusion also carries the risk of bias in the study results. Methods To combine historical and randomized controls we investigate the Fill-it-up-design, which in the first step checks the comparability of the historical and randomized controls performing an equivalence pre-test. If equivalence is confirmed, the historical control data will be included in the new RCT. If equivalence cannot be confirmed, the historical controls will not be considered at all and the randomization of the original study will be extended. We are investigating the performance of this study design in terms of type I error rate and power. Results We demonstrate how many patients need to be recruited in each of the two steps in the Fill-it-up-design and show that the family wise error rate of the design is kept at 5 $$\%$$ % . The maximum sample size of the Fill-it-up-design is larger than that of the single-stage design without historical controls and increases as the heterogeneity between the historical controls and the concurrent controls increases. Conclusion The two-stage Fill-it-up-design represents a frequentist method for including historical control data for various study designs. As the maximum sample size of the design is larger, a robust prior belief is essential for its use. The design should therefore be seen as a way out in exceptional situations where a hybrid design is considered necessary.

Abstract Background The conduct of rare disease clinical trials is still hampered by methodological problems. The number of patients suffering from a rare condition is variable, but may be very small and unfortunately statistical problems for small and finite populations have received less consideration. This paper describes the outline of the iSTORE project, its ambitions, and its methodological approaches. Methods In very small populations, methodological challenges exacerbate. iSTORE’s ambition is to develop a comprehensive perspective on natural history course modelling through multiple endpoint methodologies, subgroup similarity identification, and improving level of evidence. Results The methodological approaches cover methods for sound scientific modeling of natural history course data, showing similarity between subgroups, defining, and analyzing multiple endpoints and quantifying the level of evidence in multiple endpoint trials that are often hampered by bias. Conclusion Through its expected results, iSTORE will contribute to the rare diseases research field by providing an approach to better inform about and thus being able to plan a clinical trial. The methodological derivations can be synchronized and transferability will be outlined.

Abstract Background When assessing the efficacy of a treatment in any clinical trial, it is recommended by the International Conference on Harmonisation to select a single meaningful endpoint. However, a single endpoint is often not sufficient to reflect the full clinical benefit of a treatment in multifaceted diseases, which is often the case in rare diseases. Therefore, the use of a combination of several clinically meaningful outcomes is preferred. Many methodologies that allow for combining outcomes in a so-called composite endpoint are however limited in a number of ways, not in the least in the number and type of outcomes that can be combined and in the poor small-sample properties. Moreover, patient reported outcomes, such as quality of life, often cannot be integrated in a composite analysis, in spite of their intrinsic value. Results Recently, a class of non-parametric generalized pairwise comparisons tests have been proposed, which members do allow for any number and type of outcomes, including patient reported outcomes. The class enjoys good small-sample properties. Moreover, this very flexible class of methods allows for prioritizing the outcomes by clinical severity, allows for matched designs and for adding a threshold of clinical relevance. Our aim is to introduce the generalized pairwise comparison ideas and concepts for rare disease clinical trial analysis, and demonstrate their benefit in a post-hoc analysis of a small-sample trial in epidermolysis bullosa. More precisely, we will include a patient relevant outcome (Quality of life), in a composite endpoint. This publication is part of the European Joint Programme on Rare Diseases (EJP RD) series on innovative methodologies for rare diseases clinical trials, which is based on the webinars presented within the educational activity of EJP RD. This publication covers the webinar topic on composite endpoints in rare diseases and includes participants’ response to a questionnaire on this topic. Conclusions Generalized pairwise comparisons is a promising statistical methodology for evaluating any type of composite endpoints in rare disease trials and may allow a better evaluation of therapy efficacy including patients reported outcomes in addition to outcomes related to the diseases signs and symptoms.

Abstract Background A tele-emergency medical service with a remote emergency physician for severe prehospital emergencies may overcome the increasing number of emergency calls and shortage of emergency medical service providers. We analysed whether routine use of a tele-emergency medical service is non-inferior to a conventional physician-based one in the occurrence of intervention-related adverse events. Methods This open-label, randomised, controlled, parallel-group, non-inferiority trial included all routine severe emergency patients aged ≥ 18 years within the ground-based ambulance service of Aachen, Germany. Patients were randomised in a 1:1 allocation ratio to receive either tele-emergency medical service (n = 1764) or conventional physician-based emergency medical service (n = 1767). The primary outcome was the occurrence of intervention-related adverse events with suspected causality to the group assignment. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02617875) on 30 November 2015 and is reported in accordance with the CONSORT statement for non-inferiority trials. Results Among 3531 randomised patients, 3220 were included in the primary analysis (mean age, 61.3 years; 53.8% female); 1676 were randomised to the conventional physician-based emergency medical service (control) group and 1544 to the tele-emergency medical service group. A physician was not deemed necessary in 108 of 1676 cases (6.4%) and 893 of 1544 cases (57.8%) in the control and tele-emergency medical service groups, respectively. The primary endpoint occurred only once in the tele-emergency medical service group. The Newcombe hybrid score method confirmed the non-inferiority of the tele-emergency medical service, as the non-inferiority margin of − 0.015 was not covered by the 97.5% confidence interval of − 0.0046 to 0.0025. Conclusions Among severe emergency cases, tele-emergency medical service was non-inferior to conventional physician-based emergency medical service in terms of the occurrence of adverse events.

Abstract Background Randomization is the foundation of any clinical trial involving treatment comparison. It helps mitigate selection bias, promotes similarity of treatment groups with respect to important known and unknown confounders, and contributes to the validity of statistical tests. Various restricted randomization procedures with different probabilistic structures and different statistical properties are available. The goal of this paper is to present a systematic roadmap for the choice and application of a restricted randomization procedure in a clinical trial. Methods We survey available restricted randomization procedures for sequential allocation of subjects in a randomized, comparative, parallel group clinical trial with equal (1:1) allocation. We explore statistical properties of these procedures, including balance/randomness tradeoff, type I error rate and power. We perform head-to-head comparisons of different procedures through simulation under various experimental scenarios, including cases when common model assumptions are violated. We also provide some real-life clinical trial examples to illustrate the thinking process for selecting a randomization procedure for implementation in practice. Results Restricted randomization procedures targeting 1:1 allocation vary in the degree of balance/randomness they induce, and more importantly, they vary in terms of validity and efficiency of statistical inference when common model assumptions are violated (e.g. when outcomes are affected by a linear time trend; measurement error distribution is misspecified; or selection bias is introduced in the experiment). Some procedures are more robust than others. Covariate-adjusted analysis may be essential to ensure validity of the results. Special considerations are required when selecting a randomization procedure for a clinical trial with very small sample size. Conclusions The choice of randomization design, data analytic technique (parametric or nonparametric), and analysis strategy (randomization-based or population model-based) are all very important considerations. Randomization-based tests are robust and valid alternatives to likelihood-based tests and should be considered more frequently by clinical investigators.

Abstract Introduction Currently, no treatment that delays with the progression of Friedreich ataxia is available. In the majority of patients Friedreich ataxia is caused by homozygous pathological expansion of GAA repeats in the first intron of the FXN gene. Nicotinamide acts as a histone deacetylase inhibitor. Dose escalation studies have shown, that short term treatment with dosages of up to 4 g/day increase the expression of FXN mRNA and frataxin protein up to the levels of asymptomatic heterozygous gene carriers. The long-term effects and the effects on clinical endpoints, activities of daily living and quality of life are unknown. Methods The aim of the NICOFA study is to investigate the efficacy and safety of nicotinamide for the treatment of Friedreich ataxia over 24 months. An open-label dose adjustment wash-in period with nicotinamide (phase A: weeks 1–4) to the individually highest tolerated dose of 2–4 g nicotinamide/day will be followed by a 2 (nicotinamide group): 1 (placebo group) randomization (phase B: weeks 5–104). In the nicotinamide group, patients will continue with their individually highest tolerated dose between 2 and 4 g/d per os once daily and the placebo group patients will be receiving matching placebo. Safety assessments will consist of monitoring and recording of all adverse events and serious adverse events, regular monitoring of haematology, blood chemistry and urine values, regular measurement of vital signs and the performance of physical examinations including cardiological signs. The primary outcome is the change in the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA) over time as compared with placebo in patients with Friedreich ataxia based on the linear mixed effect model (LMEM) model. Secondary endpoints are measures of quality of life, functional motor and cognitive measures, clinician’s and patient’s global impression-change scales as well as the up-regulation of the frataxin protein level, safety and survival/death. Perspective The NICOFA study represents one of the first attempts to assess the clinical efficacy of an epigenetic therapeutic intervention for this disease and will provide evidence of possible disease modifying effects of nicotinamide treatment in patients with Friedreich ataxia. Trial registration EudraCT-No.: 2017-002163-17, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03761511.

Abstract Background The Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) defines histologic criteria (MEST-C) that provide prognostic information based on the kidney biopsy. There are few data on the predictive impact of this classification in randomized clinical trial settings. Methods We performed an exploratory analysis of MEST-C scores in 70 available renal biopsies from 162 randomized STOP-IgAN trial participants and correlated the results with clinical outcomes. Analyses were performed by researchers blinded to the clinical outcome of the patients. Biopsies had been obtained 6.5 to 95 (median 9.4) months prior to randomization. Results Mesangial hypercellularity (M1) associated with higher annual eGFR-loss during the 3-year trial (M1: − 5.06 ± 5.17 ml/min/1.73 m2, M0: − 0.79 ± 4.50 ml/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.002). An M0-score additionally showed a weak association with full clinical remission, whereas the percentage of patients losing ≥15 ml/min/1.73 m2 over the 3-year trial phase was higher among those scored as M1. Among patients with additional immunosuppression, ESRD occurred more frequently in patients when tubulointerstitial fibrosis (T1/2) was present (T1/2 = 33%, T0 = 0%, p = 0.008). In patients receiving supportive care only, ESRD frequencies were similar (T1/2 = 18%, T0 = 7%, p = 0.603). At randomization, eGFR was significantly lower when tubulointerstitial fibrosis was present (T1/2: 45.2 ± 15.7 ml/min/1.73 m2, T0: 74.6 ± 28.2 ml/min/1.73 m2, p

Abstract Background Orphan drug development faces numerous challenges, including low disease prevalence, patient population heterogeneity, and strong presence of paediatric patient populations. Consequently, clinical trials for orphan drugs are often smaller than those of non-orphan drugs, and they require the development of efficient trial designs relevant to small populations to gain the most information from the available data. The International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) is aimed at promoting international collaboration and advance rare diseases research worldwide, and has as one of its goals to contribute to 1000 new therapies for rare diseases. IRDiRC set up a Small Population Clinical Trials (SPCT) Task Force in order to address the shortcomings of our understanding in carrying out clinical trials in rare diseases. Results The IRDiRC SPCT Task Force met in March 2016 to discuss challenges faced in the design of small studies for rare diseases and present their recommendations, structured around six topics: different study methods/designs and their relation to different characteristics of medical conditions, adequate safety data, multi-arm trial designs, decision analytic approaches and rational approaches to adjusting levels of evidence, extrapolation, and patients’ engagement in study design. Conclusions Recommendations have been issued based on discussions of the Small Population Clinical Trials Task Force that aim to contribute towards successful therapy development and clinical use. While randomised clinical trials are still considered the gold standard, it is recommended to systematically take into consideration alternative trial design options when studying treatments for a rare disease. Combining different sources of safety data is important to give a fuller picture of a therapy’s safety profile. Multi-arm trials should be considered an opportunity for rare diseases therapy development, and funders are encouraged to support such trial design via international networks. Patient engagement is critical in trial design and therapy development, a process which sponsors are encouraged to incorporate when conducting trials and clinical studies. Input from multiple regulatory agencies is recommended early and throughout clinical development. Regulators are often supportive of new clinical trial designs, provided they are well thought through and justified, and they also welcome discussions and questions on this topic. Parallel advice for multiregional development programs should also be considered.

Background/Aims: The addition of immunosuppression to supportive care reduces proteinuria in a subset of patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN) but is associated with an increased rate of adverse events. The present work investigates whether urinary biomarkers are able to identify subjects who benefit from immunosuppression and to predict the progression of disease in a sub-cohort of the STOP-IgAN trial. Methods: Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), calprotectin, and the product of tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (TIMP2•IGFBP7) were measured in all available urine samples obtained at the time point of enrollment in the STOP-IgAN trial (n=113). Results: Biomarker concentrations in both the overall study population and the subgroup with additional immunosuppression did not differ in subjects reaching vs. not reaching full clinical remission, eGFR loss ≥ 15, or 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 over the 3-year trial phase (p> 0.05 each). Receiver-operating characteristic curves showed a poor predictive accuracy of each biomarker for the above-mentioned parameters in the overall study population (areas under the curve ≤0.611). Accordingly, there was neither a significant correlation of any biomarker and adverse outcome in linear regression analysis, nor between biomarker concentrations at enrollment and change in the eGFR over the 3-year observation period. Conclusion: NGAL, KIM-1, calprotectin, and [TIMP-2]•[IGFBP7] had neither a prognostic value for the progression of IgAN, nor for the response to immunosuppression in the present sub-cohort of the STOP-IgAN trial. The search for appropriate biomarkers for an individualized treatment strategy in IgAN continues.

Randomization in clinical trials is the key design technique to ensure the comparability of treatment groups. Although there exist a large number of software products which assist the researcher to implement randomization, no tool which would cover a wide range of procedures and allow the comparative evaluation of the procedures under practical restrictions has been proposed in the literature so far. The R package randomizeR addresses this need. The paper includes a detailed description of the randomizeR package that serves as a tutorial for the generation of randomization sequences and the assessment of randomization procedures.

Abstract Background IDeAl (Integrated designs and analysis of small population clinical trials) is an EU funded project developing new statistical design and analysis methodologies for clinical trials in small population groups. Here we provide an overview of IDeAl findings and give recommendations to applied researchers. Method The description of the findings is broken down by the nine scientific IDeAl work packages and summarizes results from the project’s more than 60 publications to date in peer reviewed journals. In addition, we applied text mining to evaluate the publications and the IDeAl work packages’ output in relation to the design and analysis terms derived from in the IRDiRC task force report on small population clinical trials. Results The results are summarized, describing the developments from an applied viewpoint. The main result presented here are 33 practical recommendations drawn from the work, giving researchers a comprehensive guidance to the improved methodology. In particular, the findings will help design and analyse efficient clinical trials in rare diseases with limited number of patients available. We developed a network representation relating the hot topics developed by the IRDiRC task force on small population clinical trials to IDeAl’s work as well as relating important methodologies by IDeAl’s definition necessary to consider in design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. These network representation establish a new perspective on design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. Conclusion IDeAl has provided a huge number of options to refine the statistical methodology for small-population clinical trials from various perspectives. A total of 33 recommendations developed and related to the work packages help the researcher to design small population clinical trial. The route to improvements is displayed in IDeAl-network representing important statistical methodological skills necessary to design and analysis of small-population clinical trials. The methods are ready for use.

Background/Aims: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of primary glomerulonephritis and still constitutes one of the most important causes of end-stage renal disease. Abnormal T cell responses may play a role in IgAN pathogenesis. Co-stimulatory molecules such as cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) are important for naive T cells to initiate and terminate immune responses. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CTLA4 gene locus are associated with several autoimmune diseases. Methods: We aimed to investigate the occurrence of the SNPs -318C/T, +49A/G and CT60 G/A within the CTLA4 locus in healthy blood donors (n=455) and IgAN patients (n=252) recruited from the recently published STOP-IgAN trial. The presence of these SNPs was then associated with baseline proteinuria in IgAN patients. Results: We observed a significantly increased frequency of the CTLA4 -318C/T genotype in IgAN patients as compared to controls (CC vs. CT+TT: OR 1.65, 95%-CI 1.03-2.65, p=0.035). No significant associations, neither with the +49A/G nor for the CT60 G/A SNP, were detected. However, when we stratified for proteinuria at time of inclusion into the STOP-IgAN trial (1 g/day), we observed significant differences in the frequencies of the CT60 G/A genotype, i.e. a significantly increased risk for higher proteinuria in patients carrying the G allele (OR 2.81, 95%-CI 1.03-7.64, p=0.042). Conclusion: The CTLA4 -318/C/T SNP was associated with an increased risk to develop IgAN, while the CT60 G/A genotype significantly associated with the risk for higher proteinuria suggesting a possible role for CTLA-4 in IgAN.

Abstract Background Randomization is considered to be a key feature to protect against bias in randomized clinical trials. Randomization induces comparability with respect to known and unknown covariates, mitigates selection bias, and provides a basis for inference. Although various randomization procedures have been proposed, no single procedure performs uniformly best. In the design phase of a clinical trial, the scientist has to decide which randomization procedure to use, taking into account the practical setting of the trial with respect to the potential of bias. Less emphasis has been placed on this important design decision than on analysis, and less support has been available to guide the scientist in making this decision. Methods We propose a framework that weights the properties of the randomization procedure with respect to practical needs of the research question to be answered by the clinical trial. In particular, the framework assesses the impact of chronological and selection bias on the probability of a type I error. The framework is applied to a case study with a 2-arm parallel group, single center randomized clinical trial with continuous endpoint, with no-interim analysis, 1:1 allocation and no adaptation in the randomization process. Results In so doing, we derive scientific arguments for the selection of an appropriate randomization procedure and develop a template which is illustrated in parallel by a case study. Possible extensions are discussed. Conclusion The proposed ERDO framework guides the investigator through a template for the choice of a randomization procedure, and provides easy to use tools for the assessment. The barriers for the thorough reporting and assessment of randomization procedures could be further reduced in the future when regulators and pharmaceutical companies employ similar, standardized frameworks for the choice of a randomization procedure.

The random allocation of patients to treatments is a crucial step in the design and conduct of a randomized controlled trial. For this purpose, a variety of randomization procedures is available. In the case of imperfect blinding, the extent to which a randomization procedure forces balanced group sizes throughout the allocation process affects the predictability of allocations. As a result, some randomization procedures perform superior with respect to selection bias, whereas others are less susceptible to chronological bias. The choice of a suitable randomization procedure therefore depends on the expected risk for selection and chronological bias within the particular study in question. To enable a sound comparison of different randomization procedures, we introduce a model for the combined effect of selection and chronological bias in randomized studies with a survival outcome. We present an evaluation method to quantify the influence of bias on the test decision of the log-rank test in a randomized parallel group trial with a survival outcome. The effect of selection and chronological bias and the dependence on the study setting are illustrated in a sensitivity analysis. We conclude with a case study to showcase the application of our model for comparing different randomization procedures in consideration of the expected type I error probability.

The impact of selection bias on the results of clinical trials has been analyzed extensively for trials of two treatments, yet its impact in multi-arm trials is still unknown. In this paper, we investigate selection bias in multi-arm trials by its impact on the type I error probability. We propose two models for selection bias, so-called biasing policies, that both extend the classic guessing strategy by Blackwell and Hodges. We derive the distribution of the F-test statistic under the misspecified outcome model and provide a formula for the type I error probability under selection bias. We apply the presented approach to quantify the influence of selection bias in multi-arm trials with increasing number of treatment groups using a permuted block design for different assumptions and different biasing strategies. Our results confirm previous findings that smaller block sizes lead to a higher proportion of sequences with inflated type I error probability. Astonishingly, our results also show that the proportion of sequences with inflated type I error probability remains constant when the number of treatment groups is increased. Realizing that the impact of selection bias cannot be completely eliminated, we propose a bias adjusted statistical model and show that the power of the statistical test is only slightly deflated for larger block sizes.

Aims: To investigate the outcomes of Rho-kinase inhibition in the electrophysiological ex vivo model of the isolated perfused vertebrate retina under hypoxia. Methods: Bovine retinas were perfused with an oxygen saturated nutrient solution with or without the Rho-kinase inhibitor H-1152P. The retinas were stimulated repeatedly until stable amplitudes were reached and the electroretinogram was recorded at five minute intervals. Hypoxia was induced for 15, 30, and 45 minutes, after which the oxygen saturation was restored. The extent of the cell damage and glial reactivity was determined by Ethidium homodimer-1 staining, immunohistochemistry, and Western blot. Results: Hypoxia caused a time-dependent reduction of the b-wave amplitudes, which could not be prevented by the H-1152P. Although the Rho-kinase inhibitor maintained higher b-wave amplitudes, these effects did not reach statistical significance. Hypoxia also resulted in an increase in cell damage and the activation of the glial cells in the untreated retinas whereas the administration of H-1152P significantly reduced the extent of these events. Conclusion: H-1152P exerted a neuroprotective effect against necrosis on the isolated bovine retina under hypoxia together with a reduction in glial cell reactivity. However, the inhibitor could not prevent the hypoxia induced retinal dysfunction possibly due to the interference with synaptic modulation.

For mammalian TRPM8, the amino acid residues asparagine-799 and aspartate-802 are essential for the stimulation of the channel by the synthetic agonist icilin. Both residues belong to the short sequence motif N-x-x-D within the transmembrane segment S3 highly conserved in the entire superfamily of voltage-dependent cation channels, among them TRPM8. Moreover, they are also conserved in the closely related TRPM2 channel, which is essentially voltage-independent. To analyze the differential roles of the motif for the voltage-dependent and voltage-independent gating, we performed reciprocal replacements of the asparagine and aspartate within the S3 motif in both channels, following the proposed idea that specific electrostatic interactions with other domains take place during gating. Wild-type and mutant channels were heterologeously expressed in HEK-293 cells and channel function was analyzed by whole-cell patch-clamp analysis as well as by Ca(2+)-imaging. Additionally, the expression of the channels in the plasma membrane was tested by Western blot analysis, in part after biotinylation. For the mutations of TRPM8, responses to menthol were only compromised if also the expression of the glycosylated channel isoform was prevented. In contrast, responses to cold were consistently and significantly attenuated but not completely abolished. For TRPM2, surface expression was not significantly affected by any of the mutations but channel function was only retained in one variant. Remarkably, this was the variant of which the corresponding mutation in TRPM8 exerted the most negative effects both on channel function and expression. Furthermore, we performed an exchange of the inner pair of residues of the N-x-x-D motif between the two channels, which proved deleterious for the functional expression of TRPM8 but ineffective on TRPM2. In conclusion, the N-x-x-D motif plays specific roles in TRPM8 and TRPM2, reflecting different requirements for voltage-dependent and voltage-independent channel gating.