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Abstract Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

SARS-CoV-2 transmits principally by air; contact and fomite transmission may also occur. Variants of concern are more transmissible than ancestral SARS-CoV-2. We found indications of possible increased aerosol and surface stability for early variants of concern, but not for the Delta and Omicron variants. Stability changes are unlikely to explain increased transmissibility.

Knowledge of the dynamics and genetic diversity of Nipah virus circulating in bats and at the human-animal interface is limited by current sampling efforts, which produce few detections of viral RNA. We report a series of investigations at Pteropus medius bat roosts identified near the locations of human Nipah cases in Bangladesh during 2012–2019. Pooled bat urine was collected from 23 roosts; 7 roosts (30%) had >1 sample in which Nipah RNA was detected from the first visit. In subsequent visits to these 7 roosts, RNA was detected in bat urine up to 52 days after the presumed exposure of the human case-patient, although the probability of detection declined rapidly with time. These results suggest that rapidly deployed investigations of Nipah virus shedding from bat roosts near human cases could increase the success of viral sequencing compared with background surveillance and could enhance understanding of Nipah virus ecology and evolution.

A novel Hendra virus variant, genotype 2, was recently discovered in a horse that died after acute illness and in Pteropus flying fox tissues in Australia. We detected the variant in flying fox urine, the pathway relevant for spillover, supporting an expanded geographic range of Hendra virus risk to horses and humans.

We identified and isolated a novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant not detected by routine testing from a horse in Queensland, Australia, that died from acute illness with signs consistent with HeV infection. Using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we determined the variant had ≈83% nt identity with prototypic HeV. In silico and in vitro comparisons of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV support that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for postexposure prophylaxis and current equine vaccine will be effective against this variant. An updated quantitative PCR developed for routine surveillance resulted in subsequent case detection. Genetic sequence consistency with virus detected in grey-headed flying foxes suggests the variant circulates at least among this species. Studies are needed to determine infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host coevolution, and spillover dynamics for this virus. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to acknowledge HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes.

Background and Aims: Recent evidence suggests that the gut is an additional target for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, whether SARS-CoV-2 spreads via gastrointestinal secretions remains unclear. To determine the prevalence of gastrointestinal SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic subjects, we analyzed gastrointestinal biopsy and liquid samples from endoscopy patients for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Methods: We enrolled 100 endoscopic patients without known SARS-CoV-2 infection (cohort A) and 12 patients with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis (cohort B) in a cohort study performed at a regional hospital. Gastrointestinal biopsies and fluids were screened for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunohistochemistry, and virus isolation assay, and the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in gastrointestinal liquids in vitro was analyzed. Results: SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleic acid was detected by PCR in the colonic tissue of 1/100 patients in cohort A. In cohort B, 3 colonic liquid samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR and viral nucleocapsid protein was detected in the epithelium of the respective biopsy samples. However, no infectious virions were recovered from any samples. In vitro exposure of SARS-CoV-2 to colonic liquid led to a 4-log–fold reduction of infectious SARS-CoV-2 within 1 hour (P ≤ .05). Conclusion: Overall, the persistent detection of SARS-CoV-2 in endoscopy samples after resolution of COVID-19 points to the gut as a long-term reservoir for SARS-CoV-2. Since no infectious virions were recovered and SARS-CoV-2 was rapidly inactivated in the presence of colon liquids, it is unlikely that performing endoscopic procedures is associated with a significant infection risk due to undiagnosed asymptomatic or persistent gastrointestinal SARS-CoV-2 infections.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007393.].

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath are the most significant socio-economic crises in modern history. The pandemic’s devastating impacts have prompted urgent policy and regulatory action to reduce the risks of future spillover events and pandemics. Stronger regulatory measures for the trade of wildlife are central to discussions of a policy response. A variety of measures, including broad bans on the trade and sale of wildlife to banning specific species for human consumption are among a suite of discussed options. However, the wildlife trade is diverse, complex, and important for the livelihoods of millions of people globally. We argue that reducing the risk of future pandemics stemming from the wildlife trade must follow established principles of governance which include being equitable, responsive, robust, and effective. We demonstrate how incorporating these principles will support the development of context-specific, culturally sensitive, and inclusive responses that recognize the on-the-ground complexity of disease emergence and the social-ecological systems in which the wildlife trade occurs.

Climate change and disease are threats to biodiversity that may compound and interact with one another in ways that are difficult to predict. White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by a cold-loving fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans), has had devastating impacts on North American hibernating bats, and impact severity has been linked to hibernaculum microclimate conditions. As WNS spreads across the continent and climate conditions change, anticipating these stressors’ combined impacts may improve conservation outcomes for bats. We build on the recent development of winter species distribution models for five North American bat species, which used a hybrid correlative-mechanistic approach to integrate spatially explicit winter survivorship estimates from a bioenergetic model of hibernation physiology. We apply this bioenergetic model given the presence of P. destructans, including parameters capturing its climate-dependent growth as well as its climate-dependent effects on host physiology, under both current climate conditions and scenarios of future climate change. We then update species distribution models with the resulting survivorship estimates to predict changes in winter hibernacula suitability under future conditions. Exposure to P. destructans is generally projected to decrease bats’ winter occurrence probability, but in many areas, changes in climate are projected to lessen the detrimental impacts of WNS. This rescue effect is not predicted for all species or geographies and may arrive too late to benefit many hibernacula. However, our findings offer hope that proactive conservation strategies to minimize other sources of mortality could allow bat populations exposed to P. destructans to persist long enough for conditions to improve.

Abstract Fruit bats (Family: Pteropodidae) are animals of great ecological and economic importance, yet their populations are threatened by ongoing habitat loss and human persecution. A lack of ecological knowledge for the vast majority of Pteropodid species presents additional challenges for their conservation and management. In Australia, populations of flying‐fox species (Genus: Pteropus) are declining and management approaches are highly contentious. Australian flying‐fox roosts are exposed to management regimes involving habitat modification, through human–wildlife conflict management policies, or vegetation restoration programs. Details on the fine‐scale roosting ecology of flying‐foxes are not sufficiently known to provide evidence‐based guidance for these regimes, and the impact on flying‐foxes of these habitat modifications is poorly understood. We seek to identify and test commonly held understandings about the roosting ecology of Australian flying‐foxes to inform practical recommendations and guide and refine management practices at flying‐fox roosts. We identify 31 statements relevant to understanding of flying‐fox roosting structure and synthesize these in the context of existing literature. We then contribute a contemporary, fine‐scale dataset on within‐roost structure to further evaluate 11 of these statements. The new dataset encompasses 13‐monthly repeat measures from 2,522 spatially referenced roost trees across eight sites in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. We show evidence of sympatry and indirect competition between species, including spatial segregation of black and grey‐headed flying‐foxes within roosts and seasonal displacement of both species by little red flying‐foxes. We demonstrate roost‐specific annual trends in occupancy and abundance and provide updated demographic information including the spatial and temporal distributions of males and females within roosts. Insights from our systematic and quantitative study will be important to guide evidence‐based recommendations on restoration and management and will be crucial for the implementation of priority recovery actions for the preservation of these species in the future.

Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of efficient sampling strategies and statistical methods for monitoring infection prevalence, both in humans and in reservoir hosts. Pooled testing can be an efficient tool for learning pathogen prevalence in a population. Typically, pooled testing requires a second‐phase retesting procedure to identify infected individuals, but when the goal is solely to learn prevalence in a population, such as a reservoir host, there are more efficient methods for allocating the second‐phase samples. To estimate pathogen prevalence in a population, this manuscript presents an approach for data fusion with two‐phased testing of pooled samples that allows more efficient estimation of prevalence with less samples than traditional methods. The first phase uses pooled samples to estimate the population prevalence and inform efficient strategies for the second phase. To combine information from both phases, we introduce a Bayesian data fusion procedure that combines pooled samples with individual samples for joint inferences about the population prevalence. Data fusion procedures result in more efficient estimation of prevalence than traditional procedures that only use individual samples or a single phase of pooled sampling. The manuscript presents guidance on implementing the first‐phase and second‐phase sampling plans using data fusion. Such methods can be used to assess the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts to humans, or to track pathogens such as SARS‐CoV‐2 in populations.

Abstract Hibernation is widespread among mammals in a variety of environmental contexts. However, few experimental studies consider interspecific comparisons, which may provide insight into general patterns of hibernation strategies. We studied 13 species of free-living bats, including populations spread over thousands of kilometers and diverse habitats. We measured torpid metabolic rate (TMR) and evaporative water loss (two key parameters for understanding hibernation energetics) across a range of temperatures. There was no difference in minimum TMR among species (i.e., all species achieved similarly low torpid metabolic rate) but the temperature associated with minimum TMR varied among species. The minimum defended temperature (temperature below which TMR increased) varied from 8 °C to

Abstract Outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to bat‐borne zoonoses, which has motivated increased ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations. Field sampling methods often collect pooled samples of bat excreta from plastic sheets placed under‐roosts. However, positive bias is introduced because multiple individuals may contribute to pooled samples, making studies of viral dynamics difficult. Here, we explore the general issue of bias in spatial sample pooling using Hendra virus in Australian bats as a case study. We assessed the accuracy of different under‐roost sampling designs using generalized additive models and field data from individually captured bats and pooled urine samples. We then used theoretical simulation models of bat density and under‐roost sampling to understand the mechanistic drivers of bias. The most commonly used sampling design estimated viral prevalence 3.2 times higher than individual‐level data, with positive bias 5–7 times higher than other designs due to spatial autocorrelation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in roosts. Simulation results indicate using a stratified random design to collect 30–40 pooled urine samples from 80 to 100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75–1 m2, and would allow estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. These results show that widely used under‐roost sampling techniques are highly sensitive to viral presence, but lack specificity, providing limited information regarding viral dynamics. Improved estimation of true prevalence can be attained with minor changes to existing designs such as reducing sheet size, increasing sheet number, and spreading sheets out within the roost area. Our findings provide insight into how spatial sample pooling is vulnerable to bias for a wide range of systems in disease ecology, where optimal sampling design is influenced by pathogen prevalence, host population density, and patterns of aggregation.

Abstract Genetic composition can influence host susceptibility to, and transmission of, pathogens, with potential population‐level consequences. In bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), pneumonia epidemics caused by Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae have been associated with severe population declines and limited recovery across North America. Adult survivors either clear the infection or act as carriers that continually shed M. ovipneumoniae and expose their susceptible offspring, resulting in high rates of lamb mortality for years following the outbreak event. Here, we investigated the influence of genomic composition on persistent carriage of M. ovipneumoniae in a well‐studied bighorn sheep herd in the Wallowa Mountains of Oregon, USA. Using 10,605 SNPs generated using RADseq technology for 25 female bighorn sheep, we assessed genomic diversity metrics and employed family‐based genome‐wide association methodologies to understand variant association and genetic architecture underlying chronic carriage. We observed no differences among genome‐wide diversity metrics (heterozygosity and allelic richness) between groups. However, we identified two variant loci of interest and seven associated candidate genes, which may influence carriage status. Further, we found that the SNP panel explained ~55% of the phenotypic variance (SNP‐based heritability) for M. ovipneumoniae carriage, though there was considerable uncertainty in these estimates. While small sample sizes limit conclusions drawn here, our study represents one of the first to assess the genomic factors influencing chronic carriage of a pathogen in a wild population and lays a foundation for understanding genomic influence on pathogen persistence in bighorn sheep and other wildlife populations. Future research should incorporate additional individuals as well as distinct herds to further explore the genomic basis of chronic carriage.

Abstract In multihost disease systems, differences in mortality between species may reflect variation in host physiology, morphology, and behavior. In systems where the pathogen can persist in the environment, microclimate conditions, and the adaptation of the host to these conditions, may also impact mortality. White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating bats caused by an environmentally persistent fungus, Pseudogymnoascus destructans. We assessed the effects of body mass, torpid metabolic rate, evaporative water loss, and hibernaculum temperature and water vapor deficit on predicted overwinter survival of bats infected by P. destructans. We used a hibernation energetics model in an individual‐based model framework to predict the probability of survival of nine bat species at eight sampling sites across North America. The model predicts time until fat exhaustion as a function of species‐specific host characteristics, hibernaculum microclimate, and fungal growth. We fit a linear model to determine relationships with each variable and predicted survival and semipartial correlation coefficients to determine the major drivers in variation in bat survival. We found host body mass and hibernaculum water vapor deficit explained over half of the variation in survival with WNS across species. As previous work on the interplay between host and pathogen physiology and the environment has focused on species with narrow microclimate preferences, our view on this relationship is limited. Our results highlight some key predictors of interspecific survival among western bat species and provide a framework to assess impacts of WNS as the fungus continues to spread into western North America.

Abstract Anthropogenic land use change is a major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to humans. According to the land use‐induced spillover model, land use change alters environmental conditions that in turn alter the dynamics between zoonotic pathogens and their wildlife hosts. Thus, in response to the global spread of the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus (the agent of COVID‐19 disease), there have been renewed calls for landscape conservation as a disease preventive measure, including by the G7 Ministers responsible for Climate and the Environment. Landscape immunity, as a new construct, points to four paradigm shifts the world must favor to effectively mitigate pandemic risks. We provide a landscape immunity primer for policy makers and make the case for “world views” that place Homo sapiens within ecological systems, regard human health as an ecological service, prioritize investments in prevention, and apply ecological restoration to human health goals. Crisis is a conversation starter for reimagining and recommitting ourselves to what is most vital and generative. We urge world leaders to make the move to a nature‐positive world.

The black flying fox (Pteropus alecto) is a natural reservoir for Hendra virus, a paramyxovirus that causes fatal infections in humans and horses in Australia. Increased excretion of Hendra virus by flying foxes has been hypothesized to be associated with physiological or energetic stress in the reservoir hosts. The objective of this study was to explore the leukocyte profiles of wild-caught P. alecto, with a focus on describing the morphology of each cell type to facilitate identification for clinical purposes and future virus spillover research. To this end, we have created an atlas of images displaying the commonly observed morphological variations across each cell type. We provide quantitative and morphological information regarding the leukocyte profiles in bats captured at two roost sites located in Redcliffe and Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia, over the course of two years. We examined the morphology of leukocytes, platelets, and erythrocytes of P. alecto using cytochemical staining and characterization of blood films through light microscopy. Leukocyte profiles were broadly consistent with previous studies of P. alecto and other Pteropus species. A small proportion of individual samples presented evidence of hemoparasitic infection or leukocyte morphological traits that are relevant for future research on bat health, including unique large granular lymphocytes. Considering hematology is done by visual inspection of blood smears, examples of the varied cell morphologies are included as a visual guide. To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first qualitative assessment of P. alecto leukocytes, as well as the first set of published hematology reference images for this species.

ABSTRACTWithin host-parasite communities, viral co-circulation and co-infections of hosts are the norm, yet studies of significant emerging zoonoses tend to focus on a single parasite species within the host. Using a multiplexed paramyxovirus bead-based PCR on urine samples from Australian flying foxes, we show that multi-viral shedding from flying fox populations is common. We detected up to nine bat paramyxoviruses shed synchronously. Multi-viral shedding infrequently coalesced into an extreme, brief and spatially restricted shedding pulse, coinciding with peak spillover of Hendra virus, an emerging fatal zoonotic pathogen of high interest. Such extreme pulses of multi-viral shedding could easily be missed during routine surveillance yet have potentially serious consequences for spillover of novel pathogens to humans and domestic animal hosts. We also detected co-occurrence patterns suggestive of the presence of interactions among viruses, such as facilitation and cross-immunity. We propose that multiple viruses may be interacting, influencing the shedding and spillover of zoonotic pathogens. Understanding these interactions in the context of broader scale drivers, such as habitat loss, may help predict shedding pulses of Hendra virus and other fatal zoonoses.

Summary: The rapid global spread and human health impacts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, show humanity's vulnerability to zoonotic disease pandemics. Although anthropogenic land use change is known to be the major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations, the scientific underpinnings of land use-induced zoonotic spillover have rarely been investigated from the landscape perspective. We call for interdisciplinary collaborations to advance knowledge on land use implications for zoonotic disease emergence with a view toward informing the decisions needed to protect human health. In particular, we urge a mechanistic focus on the zoonotic pathogen infect–shed–spill–spread cascade to enable protection of landscape immunity—the ecological conditions that reduce the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts—as a conservation and biosecurity priority. Results are urgently needed to formulate an integrated, holistic set of science-based policy and management measures that effectively and cost-efficiently minimise zoonotic disease risk. We consider opportunities to better institute the necessary scientific collaboration, address primary technical challenges, and advance policy and management issues that warrant particular attention to effectively address health security from local to global scales.

Abstract Caves and other subterranean features provide unique environments for many species. The importance of cave microclimate is particularly relevant at temperate latitudes where bats make seasonal use of caves for hibernation. White‐nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease that has devastated populations of hibernating bats across eastern and central North America, has brought renewed interest in bat hibernation and hibernaculum conditions. A recent review synthesized current understanding of cave climatology, exploring the qualitative relationship between cave and surface climate with implications for hibernaculum suitability. However, a more quantitative understanding of the conditions in which bats hibernate and how they may promote or mediate WNS impacts is required. We compiled subterranean temperatures from caves and mines across the western United States and Canada to (1) quantify the hypothesized relationship between mean annual surface temperature (MAST) and subterranean temperature and how it is influenced by measurable site attributes, and (2) use readily available gridded data to predict and continuously map the range of temperatures that may be available in caves and mines. Our analysis supports qualitative predictions that subterranean winter temperatures are correlated with MAST, that temperatures are warmer and less variable farther from the surface, and that even deep within‐cave temperatures tend to be lower than MAST. Effects of other site attributes (e.g., topography, vegetation, and precipitation) on subterranean temperatures were not detected. We then assessed the plausibility of model‐predicted temperatures using knowledge of winter bat distributions and preferred hibernaculum temperatures. Our model unavoidably simplifies complex subterranean environments and is not intended to explain all variability in subterranean temperatures. Rather, our results offer researchers and managers improved broad‐scale estimates of the geographic distribution of potential hibernaculum conditions compared to reliance on MAST alone. We expect this information to better support range‐scale estimation of winter bat distributions and projection of likely WNS impacts across the west. We suggest that our model predictions should serve as hypotheses to be further tested and refined as additional data become available.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Pandemics are a consequence of a series of processes that span scales from viral biology at 10−9 m to global transmission at 106 m. The pathogen passes from one host species to another through a sequence of events that starts with an infected reservoir host and entails interspecific contact, innate immune responses, receptor protein structure within the potential host, and the global spread of the novel pathogen through the naive host population. Each event presents a potential barrier to the onward passage of the virus and should be characterized with an integrated transdisciplinary approach. Epidemic control is based on the prevention of exposure, infection, and disease. However, the ultimate pandemic prevention is prevention of the spillover event itself. Here, we focus on the potential for preventing the spillover of henipaviruses, a group of viruses derived from bats that frequently cross species barriers, incur high human mortality, and are transmitted among humans via stuttering chains. We outline the transdisciplinary approach needed to prevent the spillover process and, therefore, future pandemics.

Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus of Australian flying fox bats. It was first detected in August 1994, after the death of 20 horses and one human. Since then it has occurred regularly within a portion of the geographical distribution of all Australian flying fox (fruit bat) species. There is, however, little understanding about which species are most likely responsible for spillover, or why spillover does not occur in other areas occupied by reservoir and spillover hosts. Using ecological niche models of the four flying fox species we were able to identify which species are most likely linked to spillover events using the concept of distance to the niche centroid of each species. With this novel approach we found that 20 out of 27 events occur disproportionately closer to the niche centroid of two species (P. alecto and P. conspicillatus). With linear regressions we found a negative relationship between distance to the niche centroid and abundance of these two species. Thus, we suggest that the bioclimatic niche of these two species is likely driving the spatial pattern of spillover of Hendra virus into horses and ultimately humans.

The 2018 outbreak of Nipah virus in Kerala, India, highlights the need for global surveillance of henipaviruses in bats, which are the reservoir hosts for this and other viruses. Nipah virus, an emerging paramyxovirus in the genus Henipavirus, causes severe disease and stuttering chains of transmission in humans and is considered a potential pandemic threat. In May 2018, an outbreak of Nipah virus began in Kerala, > 1800 km from the sites of previous outbreaks in eastern India in 2001 and 2007. Twenty-three people were infected and 21 people died (16 deaths and 18 cases were laboratory confirmed). Initial surveillance focused on insectivorous bats (Megaderma spasma), whereas follow-up surveys within Kerala found evidence of Nipah virus in fruit bats (Pteropus medius). P. medius is the confirmed host in Bangladesh and is now a confirmed host in India. However, other bat species may also serve as reservoir hosts of henipaviruses. To inform surveillance of Nipah virus in bats, we reviewed and analyzed the published records of Nipah virus surveillance globally. We applied a trait-based machine learning approach to a subset of species that occur in Asia, Australia, and Oceana. In addition to seven species in Kerala that were previously identified as Nipah virus seropositive, we identified at least four bat species that, on the basis of trait similarity with known Nipah virus-seropositive species, have a relatively high likelihood of exposure to Nipah or Nipah-like viruses in India. These machine-learning approaches provide the first step in the sequence of studies required to assess the risk of Nipah virus spillover in India. Nipah virus surveillance not only within Kerala but also elsewhere in India would benefit from a research pipeline that included surveys of known and predicted reservoirs for serological evidence of past infection with Nipah virus (or cross reacting henipaviruses). Serosurveys should then be followed by longitudinal spatial and temporal studies to detect shedding and isolate virus from species with evidence of infection. Ecological studies will then be required to understand the dynamics governing prevalence and shedding in bats and the contacts that could pose a risk to public health.

Hibernation consists of extended durations of torpor interrupted by periodic arousals. The 'dehydration hypothesis' proposes that hibernating mammals arouse to replenish water lost through evaporation during torpor. Arousals are energetically expensive, and increased arousal frequency can alter survival throughout hibernation. Yet we lack a means to assess the effect of evaporative water loss (EWL), determined by animal physiology and hibernation microclimate, on torpor bout duration and subsequent survival. White-nose syndrome (WNS), a devastating disease impacting hibernating bats, causes increased frequency of arousals during hibernation and EWL has been hypothesized to contribute to this increased arousal frequency. WNS is caused by a fungus, which grows well in humid hibernaculum environments and damages wing tissue important for water conservation. Here, we integrated the effect of EWL on torpor expression in a hibernation energetics model, including the effects of fungal infection, to determine the link between EWL and survival. We collected field data for Myotis lucifugus, a species that experiences high mortality from WNS, to gather parameters for the model. In saturating conditions, we predicted healthy bats experience minimal mortality. Infected bats, however, suffer high fungal growth in highly saturated environments, leading to exhaustion of fat stores before spring. Our results suggest that host adaptation to humid environments leads to increased arousal frequency from infection, which drives mortality across hibernaculum conditions. Our modified hibernation model provides a tool to assess the interplay between host physiology, hibernaculum microclimate, and diseases such as WNS on winter survival.

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources—conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

Predicting and simplifying which pathogens may spill over from animals to humans is a major priority in infectious disease biology. Many efforts to determine which viruses are at risk of spillover use a subset of viral traits to find trait-based associations with spillover. We adapt a new method—phylofactorization—to identify not traits but lineages of viruses at risk of spilling over. Phylofactorization is used to partition the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses viral taxonomy based on non-human host range of viruses and whether there exists evidence the viruses have infected humans. We identify clades on a range of taxonomic levels with high or low propensities to spillover, thereby simplifying the classification of zoonotic potential of mammalian viruses. Phylofactorization by whether a virus is zoonotic yields many disjoint clades of viruses containing few to no representatives that have spilled over to humans. Phylofactorization by non-human host breadth yields several clades with significantly higher host breadth. We connect the phylogenetic factors above with life-histories of clades, revisit trait-based analyses, and illustrate how cladistic coarse-graining of zoonotic potential can refine trait-based analyses by illuminating clade-specific determinants of spillover risk.

Environmental persistence of zoonotic pathogens is a key trait that influences the probability of zoonotic spillover. Pathogen survival outside of the host determines the window available for contact with the new recipient host species and the dose of pathogen available to that host. The longer a pathogen survives in the environment, the more disconnected the reservoir and recipient hosts can be in space and time, and the more likely that an infective dose will be available to recipient hosts. Therefore, environmental persistence is a key parameter for mechanistic models needed to predict pathogen spillover. Avian influenza can be transmitted from wildlife to poultry and people in part due to its ability to persist in the environment. Considerable work has been done to quantify trends in avian influenza persistence across environmental conditions, often published in separate studies with separate datasets. In this paper, we quantify the trends and variability of avian influenza viral persistence across environmental conditions by collating disjoint experimental data on viral particle persistence in water across many studies and a range of environmental conditions. The collated data represent 120 estimates from three different studies of the decay rates of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (90 estimates from Asia and 30 from Europe) in response to temperature, pH, and salinity. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian model to control for biases with random effects and used experimental replicates and R2 estimates of the publication's regression procedures as statistical weights. We found temperature significantly decreases persistence of H5N1 virus in water, and this effect is stronger than that of salinity alone. Salinity interacts with temperature and probably drives the most contrasting persistence scenarios between cold-saline and warm-saline water bodies, where highest and lowest persistence times could occur respectively. Our work provides needed parameters for models that examine the risk of spillover of avian influenza viruses.

Bats are sources of high viral diversity and high-profile zoonotic viruses worldwide. Although apparently not pathogenic in their reservoir hosts, some viruses from bats severely affect other mammals, including humans. Examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses, Ebola and Marburg viruses, and Nipah and Hendra viruses. Factors underlying high viral diversity in bats are the subject of speculation. We hypothesize that flight, a factor common to all bats but to no other mammals, provides an intensive selective force for coexistence with viral parasites through a daily cycle that elevates metabolism and body temperature analogous to the febrile response in other mammals. On an evolutionary scale, this host–virus interaction might have resulted in the large diversity of zoonotic viruses in bats, possibly through bat viruses adapting to be more tolerant of the fever response and less virulent to their natural hosts.

Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host-pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife.

Individual host immune responses to infectious agents drive epidemic behavior and are therefore central to understanding and controlling infectious diseases. However, important features of individual immune responses, such as the strength and longevity of immunity, can be challenging to characterize, particularly if they cannot be replicated or controlled in captive environments. Our research on bighorn sheep pneumonia elucidates how individual bighorn sheep respond to infection with pneumonia pathogens by examining the relationship between exposure history and survival in situ. Pneumonia is a poorly understood disease that has impeded the recovery of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) following their widespread extirpation in the 1900s. We analyzed the effects of pneumonia-exposure history on survival of 388 radio-collared adults and 753 ewe-lamb pairs. Results from Cox proportional hazards models suggested that surviving ewes develop protective immunity after exposure, but previous exposure in ewes does not protect their lambs during pneumonia outbreaks. Paradoxically, multiple exposures of ewes to pneumonia were associated with diminished survival of their offspring during pneumonia outbreaks. Although there was support for waning and boosting immunity in ewes, models with consistent immunizing exposure were similarly supported. Translocated animals that had not previously been exposed were more likely to die of pneumonia than residents. These results suggest that pneumonia in bighorn sheep can lead to aging populations of immune adults with limited recruitment. Recovery is unlikely to be enhanced by translocating naïve healthy animals into or near populations infected with pneumonia pathogens.

BackgroundUnderstanding the long-distance movement of bats has direct relevance to studies of population dynamics, ecology, disease emergence, and conservation.Methodology/principal findingsWe developed and trialed several collar and platform terminal transmitter (PTT) combinations on both free-living and captive fruit bats (Family Pteropodidae: Genus Pteropus). We examined transmitter weight, size, profile and comfort as key determinants of maximized transmitter activity. We then tested the importance of bat-related variables (species size/weight, roosting habitat and behavior) and environmental variables (day-length, rainfall pattern) in determining optimal collar/PTT configuration. We compared battery- and solar-powered PTT performance in various field situations, and found the latter more successful in maintaining voltage on species that roosted higher in the tree canopy, and at lower density, than those that roost more densely and lower in trees. Finally, we trialed transmitter accuracy, and found that actual distance errors and Argos location class error estimates were in broad agreement.Conclusions/significanceWe conclude that no single collar or transmitter design is optimal for all bat species, and that species size/weight, species ecology and study objectives are key design considerations. Our study provides a strategy for collar and platform choice that will be applicable to a larger number of bat species as transmitter size and weight continue to decrease in the future.

Since the initial emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (lineage A), new lineages and variants have emerged (1), typically replacing previously circulating lineages. The World Health Organization has designated 5 virus variants as [...]

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Nipah virus is a paramyxovirus (genus Henipavirus) that has caused outbreaks of neurologic and respiratory disease in humans and livestock in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines (2-4). The [...]

Hendra virus (HeV; genus Henipavirus, family Paramyxoviridae) is a well-characterised zoonotic pathogen endemic to Pteropus spp. bats (flying foxes) in Australia. Spillover from bats to horses has been detected 65 [...]

Highly pathogenic zoonotic Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV) are prototypic members of the genus Henipavirus, family Paramyxoviridae, that have natural reservoirs in pteropodid flying foxes (1). These viruses [...]

Bats are reservoirs of many zoonotic viruses that are fatal in humans but do not cause disease in bats. Moreover, bats generate low neutralizing antibody titers in response to experimental viral infection, although more robust antibody responses have been observed in wild-caught bats during times of food stress. Here, we compared the antibody titers and B cell receptor (BCR) diversity of Jamaican fruit bats (Artibeus jamaicensis; JFBs) and BALB/c mice generated in response to T-dependent and T-independent antigens. We then manipulated the diet of JFBs and challenged them with H18N11 influenza A-like virus or a replication incompetent Nipah virus VSV (Nipah-riVSV). Under standard housing conditions, JFBs generated a lower avidity antibody response and possessed more BCR mRNA diversity compared to BALB/c mice. However, withholding protein from JFBs improved serum neutralization in response to Nipah-riVSV and improved serum antibody titers specific to H18 but reduced BCR mRNA diversity. Bats are known pathogen reservoirs and changes in their diet have been linked to spillover events. This study shows that bat antibodies have higher diversity but lower pathogen-binding capacity than those of mice, but dietary protein restriction enhances this capacity, potentially impacting spillover risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]