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Evaluating the association between diseases and the longitudinal pattern of pharmacological therapy has become increasingly important. However, in many longitudinal studies, self-reported medication usage data collected at patients' follow-up visits could be missing for various reasons. These pieces of missing or inaccurate/untenable information complicate determining the trajectory of medication use and its complete effects for patients. Although longitudinal models can deal with specific types of missing data, inappropriate handling of this issue can lead to a biased estimation of regression parameters especially when missing data mechanisms are complex and depend upon multiple sources of variation. We propose a latent class-based multiple imputation (MI) approach using a Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) that incorporates cluster of unobserved heterogeneity for medication usage data with intermittent missing values. Findings from our simulation study indicate that the proposed method performs better than traditional MI methods under certain scenarios of data distribution. We also demonstrate applications of the proposed method to data from the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) cohort when assessing an association between longitudinal nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) usage and radiographic damage in AS, while the longitudinal NSAID index data are intermittently missing.

Using data from 266 age- and sex-matched pairs of Jamaican children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing (TD) controls (2-8 years), we investigated whether glutathione S-transferase theta 1 ("GSTT1") modifies the association between blood manganese concentrations (BMC) and ASD. After adjusting conditional logistic regression models for socioeconomic status and the interaction between "GSTT1" and "GSTP1" (glutathione S-transferase pi 1), using a recessive genetic model for "GSTT1" and either a co-dominant or dominant model for "GSTP1," the interaction between "GSTT1" and BMC was significant (P = 0.02, P = 0.01, respectively). Compared to controls, ASD cases with "GSTT1"-DD genotype had 4.33 and 4.34 times higher odds of BMC > 12 vs. [less than or equal to] 8.3 µg/L, respectively. Replication in other populations is warranted.

Mode of delivery, preterm birth, and low birth weight (LBW) are hypothesized to be associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the offspring. Using data from 343 ASD cases (2-8 years) and their age- and sex-matched typically developing controls in Jamaica we investigated these hypotheses. Our statistical analyses revealed that the parish of residence could modify the association between cesarean delivery and ASD, with a difference found in this relationship in Kingston parish [matched odds ratio (MOR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) 2.30 (1.17-4.53)] and other parishes [MOR (95% CI) 0.87 (0.48-1.59)]. Although the associations of LBW and preterm birth with ASD were not significant, we observed a significant interaction between LBW and the household socioeconomic status. These findings require replication.

ObjectiveTo examine associations of HLA class I and class II alleles with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in three cohorts of patients of European, Asian and African ancestry.MethodsHLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-C, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DPB1 alleles were genotyped in 1948 unrelated white and 67 African-American patients with AS from the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Ankylosing Spondylitis cohort, the North American Spondylitis Consortium and Australo-Anglo-American Spondyloarthritis Consortium, 990 white and 245 African-American Controls and HLA-B alleles in 442 Han Chinese patients with AS and 346 controls from Shanghai and Gansu, China. In addition to the case:control analyses, HLA-B*27-negative patients with AS were analysed separately, and logistic regression and 'relative predispositional effects' (RPE) analyses were carried out to control for the major effect of HLA-B*27 on disease susceptibility.ResultsAlthough numerous associations were seen between HLA alleles and AS in whites, among HLA-B*27-negative patients with AS , positive associations were seen with HLA-A*29, B*38, B*49, B*52, DRB1*11 and DPB1*03:01 and negative associations with HLA-B*07, HLA-B*57, HLA-DRB1*15:01, HLA-DQB1*02:01 and HLA-DQB1*06:02. Additional associations with HLA-B*14 and B*40 (B60) were observed via RPE analysis, which excludes the HLA-B*27 alleles. The increased frequency of HLA-B*40:01 and decreased frequency of HLA-B*07 was also seen in Han Chinese and African-Americans with AS. HLA-B*08 was decreased in whites with acute anterior uveitis.ConclusionsThese data, analysing the largest number of patients with AS examined to date in three ethnic groups, confirm that other HLA class I and II alleles other than HLA-B*27 to be operative in AS predisposition.

OBJECTIVE:Opioid analgesics may be prescribed to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients with pain that is unresponsive to antirheumatic treatment. Our study assessed factors associated with opioid usage in AS. METHODS:A prospective cohort of 706 patients with AS meeting modified New York criteria followed at least 2 years underwent comprehensive clinical evaluation of disease activity and functional impairment. These were assessed by the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI). Radiographic severity was assessed by the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Radiology Index and modified Stokes Ankylosing Spondylitis Scoring System. Medications taken concurrently with opioids, as well as C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), were determined at each study visit, performed every 6 months. Analyses were carried out at baseline, and longitudinal multivariable models were developed to identify factors independently associated with chronic and intermittent opioid usage over time. RESULTS:Factors significantly associated with opioid usage, especially chronic opioid use, included longer disease duration, smoking, lack of exercise, higher disease activity (BASDAI) and functional impairment (BASFI), depression, radiographic severity, and cardiovascular disease. Patients taking opioids were more likely to be using anxiolytic, hypnotic, antidepressant, and muscle relaxant medications. Multivariable analysis underscored the association with smoking, older age, antitumor necrosis factor agent use, and psychoactive drugs, as well as with subjective but not objective determinants of disease activity. CONCLUSION:Opioid usage was more likely to be associated with subjective measures (depression, BASDAI, BASFI) than objective measures (CRP, ESR), suggesting that pain in AS may derive from sources other than spinal inflammation alone.

The purpose of this study is to compare disease severity in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) in three ethnic groups. We assessed 925 AS patients (57 Blacks, 805 Whites, 63 Latinos) enrolled in the longitudinal Prospective Study of Outcomes in AS (PSOAS) for functional impairment, disease activity, and radiographic severity. Comparisons of clinical characteristics and HLA-B27 frequency for each group were performed, in two multivariable regression models, we compared the baseline Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Radiographic Index (BASRI) and modified Stokes Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS) by ethnicity, adjusting for covariates. Blacks had greater functional impairment (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index) (median 62.5 vs. 27.8 in Whites and 38.1 in Latinos; p

IntroductionIt is increasingly essential for medical researchers to be literate in statistics, but the requisite degree of literacy is not the same for every statistical competency in translational research. Statistical competency can range from 'fundamental' (necessary for all) to 'specialized' (necessary for only some). In this study, we determine the degree to which each competency is fundamental or specialized.MethodsWe surveyed members of 4 professional organizations, targeting doctorally trained biostatisticians and epidemiologists who taught statistics to medical research learners in the past 5 years. Respondents rated 24 educational competencies on a 5-point Likert scale anchored by 'fundamental' and 'specialized.'ResultsThere were 112 responses. Nineteen of 24 competencies were fundamental. The competencies considered most fundamental were assessing sources of bias and variation (95%), recognizing one's own limits with regard to statistics (93%), identifying the strengths, and limitations of study designs (93%). The least endorsed items were meta-analysis (34%) and stopping rules (18%).ConclusionWe have identified the statistical competencies needed by all medical researchers. These competencies should be considered when designing statistical curricula for medical researchers and should inform which topics are taught in graduate programs and evidence-based medicine courses where learners need to read and understand the medical research literature.

Soon after commencement of the SARS-CoV-2 disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19), it became evident that the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike protein is the target of neutralizing antibodies that comprise a critical element of protective immunity to the virus. This study addresses the relative lack of information regarding actual antibody concentrations and binding affinities in convalescent plasma (CP) samples from COVID-19 patients and extends these analyses to post-vaccination (PV) samples to estimate protective IgG antibody (Ab) levels. A direct enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure IgG anti-spike protein (SP) antibodies (Abs) relative to human chimeric spike S1 Ab standards. Microplate wells were coated with recombinant SP. Affinities of Ab binding to SP were determined by previously described methods. Binding affinities were also determined in an RBD-specific sandwich ELISA. Two indices of protective immunity were determined as permutations of Ab molar concentration divided by affinity as dissociation constant (KD). The range and geometric means of Ab concentrations in 21 CP and 21 PV samples were similar and a protective Ab level of 7.5 μg/ml was determined for the latter population, based on 95% of the normal distribution of the PV population. A population (n = 21) of plasma samples from individuals receiving only one vaccination with the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines (PtV) exhibited a geometric mean Ab concentration significantly (p < 0.03) lower than the PV population. The results of this study have implications for future vaccine development, projection of protective efficacy duration, and understanding of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PurposeTo learn the size, composition, and scholarly output of biostatistics, epidemiology, and research design (BERD) units in U.S. academic health centers (AHCs).MethodEach year for four years, the authors surveyed all BERD units in U.S. AHCs that were members of the Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) Consortium. In 2010, 46 BERD units were surveyed; in 2011, 55; in 2012, 60; and in 2013, 61.ResultsResponse rates to the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 surveys were 93.5%, 98.2%, 98.3%, and 86.9%, respectively. Overall, the size of BERD units ranged from 3 to 86 individuals. The median FTE in BERD units remained similar and ranged from 3.0 to 3.5 FTEs over the years. BERD units reported more availability of doctoral-level biostatisticians than doctoral-level epidemiologists. In 2011, 2012, and 2013, more than a third of BERD units provided consulting support on 101 to 200 projects. A majority of BERD units reported that between 25% and 75% (in 2011) and 31% to 70% (in 2012) of their consulting was to junior investigators. More than two-thirds of BERD units reported their contributions to the submission of 20 or more non-BERD grant or contract applications annually. Nearly half of BERD units reported 1 to 10 manuscripts submitted annually with a BERD practitioner as the first or corresponding author.ConclusionsThe findings regarding BERD units provide a benchmark against which to compare BERD resources and may be particularly useful for institutions planning to develop new units to support programs such as the CTSA.

Criteria for evaluating faculty are traditionally based on a triad of scholarship, teaching, and service. Research scholarship is often measured by first or senior authorship on peer-reviewed scientific publications and being principal investigator on extramural grants. Yet scientific innovation increasingly requires collective rather than individual creativity, which traditional measures of achievement were not designed to capture and, thus, devalue. The authors propose a simple, flexible framework for evaluating team scientists that includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments. An approach for documenting contributions of team scientists in team-based scholarship, nontraditional education, and specialized service activities is also outlined. Although biostatisticians are used for illustration, the approach is generalizable to team scientists in other disciplines.The authors offer three key recommendations to members of institutional promotion committees, department chairs, and others evaluating team scientists. First, contributions to team-based scholarship and specialized contributions to education and service need to be assessed and given appropriate and substantial weight. Second, evaluations must be founded on well-articulated criteria for assessing the stature and accomplishments of team scientists. Finally, mechanisms for collecting evaluative data must be developed and implemented at the institutional level. Without these three essentials, contributions of team scientists will continue to be undervalued in the academic environment.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with poorly understood etiology. Many maternal exposures during pregnancy and breastfeeding potentially interfere with neurodevelopment. Using data from two age- and sex-matched case-control studies in Jamaica (n = 298 pairs), results of conditional logistic regression analyses suggest that maternal exposures to fever or infection (matched odds ratio (MOR) = 3.12, 95% CI 1.74-5.60), physical trauma (MOR 2.02, 95% CI 1.01-4.05), and oil-based paints (MOR 1.99, 95% CI 1.14-3.46) may be associated with ASD. Additionally, maternal exposure to oil-based paints may modify the relationship between maternal exposure to pesticides and ASD, which deepens our understanding of the association between pesticides and ASD.

ObjectiveTo report population-based percentile reference values for selected spinal mobility measures in a nationally representative sample of 5,001 US adults ages 20-69 years who were examined in the 2009-2010 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).MethodsOcciput-to-wall distance (OWD), thoracic expansion (TE), and anterior lumbar flexion (ALF; by modified Schober test) were measured by trained examiners in a standardized manner. TE was measured at the xiphisternal level, while the lower reference point for ALF was a line marked at the level of the superior margin of the lateral iliac crests. We report reference values based on the 95th percentile for the OWD and the 5th percentile for TE and ALF, as well as other summary statistics for these measures, in the study population.ResultsAn OWD of >0 was present in 3.8% of the participants, while 8.8% of them had out-of-range values for TE based on the commonly used threshold of 2.5 cm. The 95th percentile of the OWD measurement was 0, while the 5th percentile for TE and ALF were 1.9 cm and 2 cm, respectively. The spinal measures were significantly associated with sex, age, ethnicity, height, and body mass index (BMI). Exclusion of individuals with severe obesity (BMI >35 kg/m(2) ) changed the proposed reference values for TE and ALF to 2.2 cm and 1.9 cm, respectively.ConclusionWe verified a reference value of 0 for the OWD in the general population. Using the reported population-based percentile values, new reference values for TE and ALF can be derived.

Patients with cardiovascular diseases who experience disease‐related short‐term events, such as hospitalizations, often exhibit diverse long‐term survival outcomes compared to others. In this study, we aim to improve the prediction of long‐term survival probability by incorporating two short‐term events using a flexible varying coefficient landmark model. Our objective is to predict the long‐term survival among patients who survived up to a pre‐specified landmark time since the initial admission. Inverse probability weighting estimation equations are formed based on the information of the short‐term outcomes before the landmark time. The kernel smoothing method with the use of cross‐validation for bandwidth selection is employed to estimate the time‐varying coefficients. The predictive performance of the proposed model is evaluated and compared using predictive measures: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Brier score. Simulation studies confirm that parameters under the landmark models can be estimated accurately and the predictive performance of the proposed method consistently outperforms existing methods that either do not incorporate or only partially incorporate information from two short‐term events. We demonstrate the practical application of our model using a community‐based cohort from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The administration requirements of the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule and the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, widely used in high-income countries, make them less feasible for diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder in low- and middle-income countries. The flexible administration requirements of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale have resulted in its use in both high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries. This study examines the agreement between assessments using the Childhood Autism Rating Scale with those using the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule or Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Second Edition and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised in Jamaica. Children aged 2-8 years (n = 149) diagnosed with autism by an experienced clinician using the Childhood Autism Rating Scale were re-evaluated using the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised. The proportion diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder using the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Second Edition, and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised was determined and mean domain scores compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The mean age was 64.4 (standard deviation = 21.6) months; the male:female ratio was 6:1. The diagnostic agreement of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale with the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Second Edition was 100.0% and 98.0%, respectively. Agreement with the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised was 94.6%. Domain scores were highest for children with more severe symptoms (p < 0.01). Despite a high level of agreement of the Childhood Autism Rating Scale with the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, Second Edition, and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale should be evaluated further with a broader range of autism spectrum disorder symptomatology, and by clinicians with varying experience before recommendation for use in low- and middle-income countries.

Utilizing surveillance data from five sites participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, we investigated contributions of surveillance subject and census tract population sociodemographic characteristics on variation in autism spectrum disorder ascertainment and prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2008 using ordinal hierarchical models for 2489 tracts. Multivariable analyses showed a significant increase in ascertainment of autism spectrum disorder cases through both school and health sources, the optimal ascertainment scenario, for cases with college-educated mothers (adjusted odds ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.09). Results from our examination of sociodemographic factors of tract populations from which cases were drawn also showed that after controlling for other covariates, statistical significance remained for associations between optimal ascertainment and percentage of Hispanic residents (adjusted odds ratio = 0.93, 95% confidence interval = 0.88-0.99) and percentage of residents with at least a bachelor's degree (adjusted odds ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.11). We identified sociodemographic factors associated with autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates including race, ethnicity, education, and income. Determining which specific factors influence disparities is complicated; however, it appears that even in the presence of education, racial and ethnic disparities are still apparent. These results suggest disparities in access to autism spectrum disorder assessments and special education for autism spectrum disorder among ethnic groups may impact subsequent surveillance.

ObjectiveTo study the effect of tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) inhibitors on progressive spinal damage in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).MethodsAll AS patients meeting the modified New York criteria who had been monitored prospectively and had at least 2 sets of spinal radiographs a minimum of 1.5 years apart were included in the study (n=334). The patients received standard therapy, which included nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and TNFα inhibitors. Radiographic severity was assessed by the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spine Score (mSASSS). Patients with a rate of AS progression that was ≥1 mSASSS unit/year were considered progressors. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were done. Propensity score matching and sensitivity analysis were performed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model was used to analyze the effect of TNFα inhibitors on the change in the mSASSS with varying followup periods. Potential confounders, such as disease activity (as assessed by the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index), the erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein level, HLA-B27 positivity, sex, age at onset, smoking burden (number of pack-years), and baseline damage, were included in the model.ResultsTNFα inhibitor treatment was associated with a 50% reduction in the odds of progression, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.52 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.30-0.88, P=0.02). Patients with a delay of >10 years in starting therapy were more likely to experience progression as compared to those who started earlier (OR 2.4 [95% CI 1.09-5.3], P=0.03). In the ZINB model, the use of TNFα inhibitors significantly reduced disease progression when the gap between radiographs was >3.9 years. The protective effect of TNFα inhibitors was stronger after propensity score matching.ConclusionTreatment with TNFα inhibitors appears to reduce radiographic progression in AS patients, especially with early initiation and with longer duration of followup.