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Abstract Human-based modelling and simulation offer an ideal testbed for novel medical therapies to guide experimental and clinical studies. Myocardial infarction (MI) is a common cause of heart failure and mortality, for which novel therapies are urgently needed. Although cell therapy offers promise, electrophysiological heterogeneity raises pro-arrhythmic safety concerns, where underlying complex spatio-temporal dynamics cannot be investigated experimentally. Here, after demonstrating credibility of the modelling and simulation framework, we investigate cell therapy in acute versus chronic MI and the role of cell heterogeneity, scar size and the Purkinje system. Simulations agreed with experimental and clinical recordings from ionic to ECG dynamics in acute and chronic infarction. Following cell delivery, spontaneous beats were facilitated by heterogeneity in cell populations, chronic MI due to tissue depolarisation and slow sinus rhythm. Subsequent re-entrant arrhythmias occurred, in some instances with Purkinje involvement and their susceptibility was enhanced by impaired Purkinje-myocardium coupling, large scars and acute infarction. We conclude that homogeneity in injected ventricular-like cell populations minimises their spontaneous beating, which is enhanced by chronic MI, whereas a healthy Purkinje-myocardium coupling is key to prevent subsequent re-entrant arrhythmias, particularly for large scars.

Abstract Cardiac Purkinje networks are a fundamental part of the conduction system and are known to initiate a variety of cardiac arrhythmias. However, patient-specific modeling of Purkinje networks remains a challenge due to their high morphological complexity. This work presents a novel method based on optimization principles for the generation of Purkinje networks that combines geometric and activation accuracy in branch size, bifurcation angles, and Purkinje-ventricular-junction activation times. Three biventricular meshes with increasing levels of complexity are used to evaluate the performance of our approach. Purkinje-tissue coupled monodomain simulations are executed to evaluate the generated networks in a realistic scenario using the most recent Purkinje/ventricular human cellular models and physiological values for the Purkinje-ventricular-junction characteristic delay. The results demonstrate that the new method can generate patient-specific Purkinje networks with controlled morphological metrics and specified local activation times at the Purkinje-ventricular junctions.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) inducibility, sustainability and response to pharmacological treatment of individual patients are expected to be determined by their ionic current properties, especially in structurally-healthy atria. Mechanisms underlying AF and optimal cardioversion are however still unclear. In this study, in-silico drug trials were conducted using a population of human structurally-healthy atria models to 1) identify key ionic current properties determining AF inducibility, maintenance and pharmacological cardioversion, and 2) compare the prognostic value for predicting individual AF cardioversion of ionic current properties and electrocardiogram (ECG) metrics. In the population of structurally-healthy atria, 477 AF episodes were induced in ionic current profiles with both steep action potential duration (APD) restitution (eliciting APD alternans), and high excitability (enabling propagation at fast rates that transformed alternans into discordant). High excitability also favored 211 sustained AF episodes, so its decrease, through prolonged refractoriness, explained pharmacological cardioversion. In-silico trials over 200 AF episodes, 100 ionic profiles and 10 antiarrhythmic compounds were consistent with previous clinical trials, and identified optimal treatments for individual electrophysiological properties of the atria. Algorithms trained on 211 simulated AF episodes exhibited >70% accuracy in predictions of cardioversion for individual treatments using either ionic current profiles or ECG metrics. In structurally-healthy atria, AF inducibility and sustainability are enabled by discordant alternans, under high excitability and steep restitution conditions. Successful pharmacological cardioversion is predicted with 70% accuracy from either ionic or ECG properties, and it is optimal for treatments maximizing refractoriness (thus reducing excitability) for the given ionic current profile of the atria.

The Neotropical region bears the most diverse freshwater fish fauna on the planet and is the stage for dramatic conservation struggles. Initiatives aiming for conservation of a single emblematic fish, a flagship species, to which different onlookers relate on a cultural/personal level, holds promise towards engagement and conservation actions benefiting whole biological communities and ecosystems. Here, we present the first comprehensive genomic resources for Salminus brasiliensis, a potential flagship Neotropical species. This fish faces pressing conservation issues, as well as taxonomic uncertainty, being a main species relevant to angling and commercial fisheries. We make available 178 million Illumina paired-end reads, 90 bases long, comprising 16 Gb (≈15X coverage) of filtered data, obtained from a primary genomic library of 500-bp fragments. We present the first de novo genomic assembly for S. brasiliensis, with ∼1 Gb (N50 = 10,889), as well as the coding genome annotation of 12,962 putative genes from assembled genomic fragments over 10 kb, most of which could be identified from the Ostariophysi GenBank database. We also provide a genome-wide panel for more than 80,000 predicted microsatellite loci for low-cost, fast and abundant DNA marker development for this species. A total of 47, among 52 candidates, empirically assayed microsatellites were confirmed as polymorphic in this fish. All genomic data produced for S. brasiliensis is hereby made publicly accessible. With the disclosure of these results, we intend to foster general biology studies and to provide tools to be applied immediately in conservation and aquaculture in this candidate flagship Neotropical species.

Over the last months, mathematical models have been extensively used to help control the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models have performed poorly in forecasting the pandemic peaks. We investigate this common pitfall by forecasting four countries' pandemic peak: Austria, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. Far from the peaks, our models can forecast the pandemic dynamics 20 days ahead. Nevertheless, when calibrating our models close to the day of the pandemic peak, all forecasts fail. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis revealed the main obstacle: the misestimation of the transmission rate. Inverse uncertainty quantification has shown that significant changes in transmission rate commonly precede a peak. These changes are a key factor in forecasting the pandemic peak. Long forecasts of the pandemic peak are therefore undermined by the lack of models that can forecast changes in the transmission rate, i.e., how a particular society behaves, changes of mitigation policies, or how society chooses to respond to them. In addition, our studies revealed that even short forecasts of the pandemic peak are challenging. Backward projections have shown us that the correct estimation of any temporal change in the transmission rate is only possible many days ahead. Our results suggest that the distance between a change in the transmission rate and its correct identification in the curve of active infected cases can be as long as 15 days. This is intrinsic to the phenomenon and how it affects epidemic data: a new case is usually only reported after an incubation period followed by a delay associated with the test. In summary, our results suggest the phenomenon itself challenges the task of forecasting the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when only epidemic data is available. Nevertheless, we show that exciting results can be obtained when using the same models to project different scenarios of reduced transmission rates. Therefore, our results highlight that mathematical modeling can help control COVID-19 pandemic by backward projections that characterize the phenomena' essential features and forward projections when different scenarios and strategies can be tested and used for decision-making.

Several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in different parts of the world, including Gamma, detected in Brazil, Delta, detected in India, and the recent Omicron variant, detected in South Africa. The emergence of a new variant is a cause of great concern. This work considers an extended version of an SIRD model capable of incorporating the effects of vaccination, time-dependent transmissibility rates, mortality, and even potential reinfections during the pandemic. We use this model to characterise the Omicron wave in Brazil, South Africa, and Germany. During Omicron, the transmissibility increased by five for Brazil and Germany and eight for South Africa, whereas the estimated mortality was reduced by three-fold. We estimated that the reported cases accounted for less than 25% of the actual cases during Omicron. The mortality among the nonvaccinated population in these countries is, on average, three to four times higher than the mortality among the fully vaccinated. Finally, we could only reproduce the observed dynamics after introducing a new parameter that accounts for the percentage of the population that can be reinfected. Reinfection was as high as 40% in South Africa, which has only 29% of its population fully vaccinated and as low as 13% in Brazil, which has over 70% and 80% of its population fully vaccinated and with at least one dose, respectively. The calibrated models were able to estimate essential features of the complex virus and vaccination dynamics and stand as valuable tools for quantifying the impact of protocols and decisions in different populations.

During cardiac diseases many types of anatomical and functional remodeling of cardiac tissue can occur. In this work, we focus on two conditions: hypoxia and fibrosis, which are part of complex pathological modifications that take place in many cardiac diseases (hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, hypertensive heart disease, and recurrent myocardial infarction) and respiratory diseases (obstructive pulmonary disease, obstructive sleep apnea, and cystic fibrosis). Using computational models of cardiac electrophysiology, we evaluate if the interplay between hypoxia and fibrosis is sufficient to trigger cardiac arrhythmia. We study the mechanisms behind the generation of ectopic beats, an arrhythmic trigger also known as premature ventricular contractions (PVCs), in regions with high hypoxia and fibrosis. First, we modify an electrophysiological model of myocytes of the human left ventricle to include the effects of hypoxia. Second, diffuse fibrosis is modeled by randomly replacing cardiac myocytes by non-excitable and non-conducting cells. The Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the probability of a region to generate ectopic beats with respect to different levels of hypoxia and fibrosis. In addition, we evaluate the minimum size of three-dimensional slabs needed to sustain reentries for different stimulation protocols. The observed mechanism behind the initiation of ectopic beats is unidirectional block, giving rise to sustained micro-reentries inside the region with diffuse fibrosis and hypoxia. In summary, our results suggest that hypoxia and fibrosis are sufficient for the creation of a focal region in the heart that generates PVCs.