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Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social–ecological drivers. We used a scenario-based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research, public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, and identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing invasive species can be structured: (1) a European biosecurity regime, (2) a dedicated communication strategy, (3) data standardization and management tools, and (4) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found substantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biological invasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries.

Contains fulltext : 299883.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access), Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is curative for myelofibrosis (MF) but assessing risk-benefit in individual patients is challenging. This complexity is amplified in CALR-mutated MF patients, as they live longer with conventional treatments compared to other molecular subtypes. We analyzed outcomes of 346 CALR-mutated MF patients who underwent allo-HCT in 123 EBMT centers between 2005 and 2019. After a median follow-up of 40 months, the estimated overall survival (OS) rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 81%, 71%, and 63%, respectively. Patients receiving busulfan-containing regimens achieved a 5-year OS rate of 71%. Non-relapse mortality (NRM) at 1, 3, and 5 years was 16%, 22%, and 26%, respectively, while the incidence of relapse/progression was 11%, 15%, and 17%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that older age correlated with worse OS, while primary MF and HLA mismatched transplants had a near-to-significant trend to decreased OS. Comparative analysis between CALR- and JAK2-mutated MF patients adjusting for confounding factors revealed better OS, lower NRM, lower relapse, and improved graft-versus-host disease-free and relapse-free survival (GRFS) in CALR-mutated patients. These findings confirm the improved prognosis associated with CALR mutation in allo-HCT and support molecular profiling in prognostic scoring systems to predict OS after transplantation in MF., 01 december 2023

Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but c

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is curative for myelofibrosis (MF) but assessing risk-benefit in individual patients is challenging. This complexity is amplified in CALR-mutated MF patients, as they live longer with conventional treatments compared to other molecular subtypes. We analyzed outcomes of 346 CALR-mutated MF patients who underwent allo-HCT in 123 EBMT centers between 2005 and 2019. After a median follow-up of 40 months, the estimated overall survival (OS) rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 81%, 71%, and 63%, respectively. Patients receiving busulfan-containing regimens achieved a 5-year OS rate of 71%. Non-relapse mortality (NRM) at 1, 3, and 5 years was 16%, 22%, and 26%, respectively, while the incidence of relapse/progression was 11%, 15%, and 17%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that older age correlated with worse OS, while primary MF and HLA mismatched transplants had a near-to-significant trend to decreased OS. Comparative analysis between CALR- and JAK2-mutated MF patients adjusting for confounding factors revealed better OS, lower NRM, lower relapse, and improved graft-versus-host disease-free and relapse-free survival (GRFS) in CALR-mutated patients. These findings confirm the improved prognosis associated with CALR mutation in allo-HCT and support molecular profiling in prognostic scoring systems to predict OS after transplantation in MF.

BACKGROUND Patient outcomes are poor for aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas not responding to or progressing within 12 months after first-line therapy. Tisagenlecleucel is an anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy approved for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after at least two treatment lines. METHODS We conducted an international phase 3 trial involving patients with aggressive lymphoma that was refractory to or progressing within 12 months after first-line therapy. Patients were randomly assigned to receive tisagenlecleucel with optional bridging therapy (tisagenlecleucel group) or salvage chemotherapy and autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) (standard-care group). The primary end point was event-free survival, defined as the time from randomization to stable or progressive disease at or after the week 12 assessment or death. Crossover to receive tisagenlecleucel was allowed if a defined event occurred at or after the week 12 assessment. Other end points included response and safety. RESULTS A total of 322 patients underwent randomization. At baseline, the percentage of patients with high-grade lymphomas was higher in the tisagenlecleucel group than in the standard-care group (24.1% vs. 16.9%), as was the percentage with an International Prognostic Index score (range, 0 to 5, with higher scores indicating a worse prognosis) of 2 or higher (65.4% vs. 57.5%). A total of 95.7% of the patients in the tisagenlecleucel group received tisagenlecleucel; 32.5% of the patients in the standard-care group received autologous HSCT. The median time from leukapheresis to tisagenlecleucel infusion was 52 days. A total of 25.9% of the patients in the tisagenlecleucel group had lymphoma progression at week 6, as compared with 13.8% of those in the standard-care group. The median event-free survival in both groups was 3.0 months (hazard ratio for event or death in the tisagenlecleucel group, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.40; P=0.61).

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.

Contains fulltext : 218254.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access), Baseline chest computed tomography (BCT) in high-risk hematology patients allows for the early diagnosis of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). The distribution of BCT implementation in hematology departments and impact on outcome is unknown. A web-based questionnaire was designed. International scientific bodies were invited. The estimated numbers of annually treated hematology patients, chest imaging timepoints and techniques, IPA rates, and follow-up imaging were assessed. In total, 142 physicians from 43 countries participated. The specialties included infectious diseases (n = 69; 49%), hematology (n = 68; 48%), and others (n = 41; 29%). BCT was performed in 57% (n = 54) of 92 hospitals. Upon the diagnosis of malignancy or admission, 48% and 24% performed BCT, respectively, and X-ray was performed in 48% and 69%, respectively. BCT was more often used in hematopoietic cell transplantation and in relapsed acute leukemia. European centers performed BCT in 59% and non-European centers in 53%. Median estimated IPA rate was 8% and did not differ between BCT (9%; IQR 5-15%) and non-BCT centers (7%; IQR 5-10%) (p = 0.69). Follow-up computed tomography (CT) for IPA was performed in 98% (n = 90) of centers. In high-risk hematology patients, baseline CT is becoming a standard-of-care. Chest X-ray, while inferior, is still widely used. Randomized, controlled trials are needed to investigate the impact of BCT on patient outcome.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

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Increasing evidence—synthesized in this paper—shows that economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss via greater resource consumption and higher emissions. Nonetheless, a review of international biodiversity and sustainability policies shows that the majority advocate economic growth. Since improvements in resource use efficiency have so far not allowed for absolute global reductions in resource use and pollution, we question the support for economic growth in these policies, where inadequate attention is paid to the question of how growth can be decoupled from biodiversity loss. Drawing on the literature about alternatives to economic growth, we explore this contradiction and suggest ways forward to halt global biodiversity decline. These include policy proposals to move beyond the growth paradigm while enhancing overall prosperity, which can be implemented by combining top‐down and bottom‐up governance across scales. Finally, we call the attention of researchers and policy makers to two immediate steps: acknowledge the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in future policies; and explore socioeconomic trajectories beyond economic growth in the next generation of biodiversity scenarios.