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The 1990s represent an exceptionally complex period for the population of Serbia. In addition to the impact of long-term factors, various tumultuous events affected its demographic development, such as breaking apart of former Yugoslavia, armed conflicts in the neighboring countries, sanctions imposed by the international community, social changes (transition transformation or regression), deep economic crisis, collapse of social stratification political problems, institutional crisis, and NATO military intervention. Maladjustment to the changed system of values and norms, lower level of personal attainment, feeling of insecurity, and living under permanent stress are the main features of life at an individual psychological level. Deprivation or living at the subsistence level are the main elements of the economic cost sustained by the majority of the population. How have these changes affected an individual's decision to have children? The analysis of futility indicators points to an obvious decline in the number of births across low fertility regions of Serbia. Also, the analysis has raised the question why the decline in population fertility in the low fertility regions was not even higher, bearing in mind the experiences undergone by the countries with economy in transition as well as the depth of the crisis in society. In that sense several factors come to mind. The most important are the universality of marriage socio-psychological investigations confirmed domination of the traditional character or mentality in Serbia during the 1990s, and the government’s approach to the issue of fertility improved during this time. Besides demographic needs were carefully taken into account in all amendments to the old and formulation of the new measures in the area of social policy. Mention should be made of measures ensuring employment rights of women and their entitlement to maternity leave, maternity pay, and provision of institutionalized care for the children. On the other hand under-reporting of live births, lack of knowledge on the size and characteristics of emigration flows limited the analysis of population fertility in Kosovo and Metohia. But, registered data as well as survey results show to the perseverance of the fertility model of transitional type displaying obvious traditional elements.

Is voluntary sterilization as a birth control method accepted in Serbia? This is certainly a question that is being imposed for research, regardless of the fact that voluntary sterilization is neither accessible nor promoted. Most importantly because there is no understanding in the social nor political sphere for legalization of voluntary sterilization as a form of birth control, apart from the clear necessity for this, first, step. They are: the recognition that voluntary sterilization is an efficient and safe birth control method, respectability of basic human as well as sexual and reproductive rights, spreading of sterilization as a form of birth control among population of both developed and developing countries and an epidemic diffusion of repeated induced abortions in Serbia. Thus individual recognition of the advantages of relying on voluntary sterilization, in a non-encouraging atmosphere, certainly represents one more argument to enable couples to prevent conception by sterilization. Since it was impossible to carry out a representative research among the population of men and women who are at risk for conception, an attempt was made to obtain a reply to the set question among women who decided to induce abortion. It was done out of at least two reasons. The first being that women with induced abortion in their reproductive history were the target group for voluntary sterilization. The second reason was based on the assumption that bringing a decision on induced abortion is preceded by the reconsideration of an earlier adopted strategy regarding children, giving birth and contraception and thus its rational component is revealed more and therefore more easily measurable. The research was carried out in the University Clinic of Obstetrics and Gynecology 'Narodni front' in Belgrade from January 21st o March 1st 2002, and included 296 women. By comparing the social and demographic characteristics of the female respondents, as well as important events in their reproductive history with structural traits of the total population of women of same age and parity who induce abortion, the representativeness of samples was confirmed and thus generalization of results. The results indicate that a target group is clearly distinct which would decide on sterilization as a contraceptive method. Not only do more than half of the surveyed women who induce abortion believe that voluntary sterilization as a method of contraception should be available in Serbia, but also a large number of surveyed women, almost a half, would subject themselves to voluntary sterilization after having given birth to the desired number of children and when they would be convinced that sterilization does not influence health, sex potency, nor quality of sex life. Younger women, respondents with secondary education, those who gave birth to the desired number of children, as well as those who have a good relationship with their partner, and confronted themselves with a large number of induced abortions, namely those who wish to use contraception in future, are more open to voluntary sterilization. The reasons for individual non acceptance, namely undetermined standpoint towards sterilization as a contraception method, indicate that many of the registered ambivalent or negative opinions could be changed by knowledge spreading on the characteristics of voluntary sterilization.

The subjects of this article are picture of Belgrade population in nineties assumptions regarding demographic development of Belgrade in nearby future and demographic consequences of adopted scenario. Such a broad approach was necessary in order to review contemporary demographic processes and fully understand demographic development of Belgrade, above all, regularity in tendencies and determining factors and its near and more distant environment in order to establish hypothesis on the trends in fertility, mortality, and migrations of population in future and understanding of macro-consequences regarding population factor.