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The impact of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on the intraseasonal PNA (ISPNA) was investigated and was found to be modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which reasonably explains the skewness of the ISPNA during El Niño and La Niña winters. It was shown that the intensity and periodicity of the ISPNA was much stronger and slightly longer in La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters. The phase‐locked association between the ISPNA and MJO indicate that this skewness was controlled by the MJO. The northward Rossby wave activities derived from the tropics associated with the MJO to the subtropical Pacific sector of the ISPNA clarified that the stronger intensity of the MJO convection in the western Pacific during the La Niña winters, as well as the slower eastward propagation of the MJO, led to the asymmetric intensity and period of the ISPNA in the two ENSO phases. Plain Language Summary: While prior studies have revealed that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact global climate, how ENSO affects the intraseasonal variability of the Pacific‐North American pattern (ISPNA) remains unclear. It was found that the ISPNA was skewed toward a higher intensity and a longer period in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters after removing the interfere of winter‐mean PNA. This is quite different from the conventional understanding that the PNA is often stronger during El Niño winters than during La Niña winters because of the asymmetric heating effort of the ENSO. The phase‐locked association between the ISPNA and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) indicate that this skewness was controlled by the MJO. The northward Rossby wave activities derived from the tropics to the subtropical Pacific sector of the ISPNA clarified the cause‐and‐effect relationship between the ISPNA and the MJO. The stronger intensity of the MJO convection in the tropical Western Pacific to oceans east of Australia during the La Niña winters, as well as the slower eastward propagation of the MJO, led to the skewness of the stronger intensity and longer period of the ISPNA in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters. Key Points: The intraseasonal PNA (ISPNA) was skewed toward a higher intensity and a longer period in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño wintersThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ISPNA were found to have a stable phase‐locked relationshipThe differences in the intensity and propagation of the MJO between La Niña and El Niño winters dominantly led to the skewed ISPNA [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct an upper ocean (0–1000 m) North Atlantic heat budget (26°–67°N) for the period 1950–2020 using multiple observational datasets and an eddy-permitting global ocean model. On multidecadal time scales, ocean heat transport convergence controls ocean heat content (OHC) tendency in most regions of the North Atlantic with little role for diffusive processes. In the subpolar North Atlantic (45°–67°N), heat transport convergence is explained by geostrophic currents, whereas ageostrophic currents make a significant contribution in the subtropics (26°–45°N). The geostrophic contribution in all regions is dominated by anomalous advection across the time-mean temperature gradient although other processes make a significant contribution, particularly in the subtropics. The time scale and spatial distribution of the anomalous geostrophic currents are consistent with a simple model of basin-scale thermal Rossby waves propagating westward/northwestward in the subpolar gyre, and multidecadal variations in regional OHC are explained by geostrophic currents periodically coming into alignment with the mean temperature gradient as the Rossby wave passes through. The global ocean model simulation shows that multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are synchronized with the ocean heat transport convergence consistent with modulation of the west–east pressure gradient by the propagating Rossby wave. Significance Statement: The purpose of the work is to understand why the North Atlantic Ocean warms up and cools down on time scales of about 40 years. The key finding is that the temperature fluctuations are caused by an oceanic wave pushing the ocean surface up and down and causing ocean currents to change direction, pushing heat into and out of different parts of the ocean, and drawing down or emitting heat to the atmosphere. The findings matter because the warm and cool periods affect the climate of the countries surrounding the North Atlantic. Climate models need to account for this oceanic wave process to correctly predict how it will change in the future and affect the large-scale climate in a warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) experiences surface melt events in summer, which could accelerate ice loss and destabilize the ice sheet in a warming world. This study links the interannual variability of RIS surface melt to the northerly wind anomaly over the Ross Sea sector, which is established in association with the quasigeostrophic barotropic Rossby wave trains from the tropical Pacific and subtropical Australia toward West Antarctica. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that these Rossby wave trains are regulated by El Niño–related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central–eastern Pacific and atmospheric heating anomalies over western Australia. El Niño provides an important forcing of the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ross Sea via inducing a Rossby wave train, and most surface melt events over the RIS happen during El Niño years. In addition, the anomalous atmospheric heating over western Australia, which is independent of El Niño, is another important forcing that triggers a Rossby wave train extending from subtropical Australia to the Ross Sea. The northerly flow toward the Ross Sea induces strong poleward moisture and heat transport, which further contributes to surface melt over the RIS. Significance Statement: During austral summer, surface melt occurs over the Ross Ice Shelf, accelerates ice loss, and poses ice-sheet destabilization risks in a warming world. The northerly wind anomaly over the Ross sector provides strong poleward heat and moisture transport and is favorable for the surface melt. This wind anomaly is influenced by two remote forcings, El Niño and heating anomaly over western Australia, through generating Rossby wave trains from the tropics and subtropical Australia. This study reveals a previously unexplored relationship that atmospheric heating over western Australia influences large-scale circulation, contributing to surface melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the performance of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the dynamic processes of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC)‐ and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐ forced teleconnection during winter is subjectively and objectively evaluated. The Arctic SIC‐forced teleconnection is associated with a warm Arctic‐cold Eurasian pattern of surface temperature (T2m), a low Arctic‐high Eurasian pattern of sea level pressure (SLP), and a southeastward propagating wave‐train originating from Arctic in the upper troposphere. The ENSO‐forced teleconnection is associated with a poleward propagating wave‐train originating from tropical Pacific in the upper troposphere, a low North Pacific‐high Arctic pattern of SLP, and a cold North Pacific‐warm Greenland pattern of T2m. The metrics of Taylor skill scores and Distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO) are used to objectively and quantitatively evaluate the performance of models. The results of subjective and objective evaluation are essentially consistent. The CanESM5, MPI‐ESM1‐2‐HR, EC‐Earth3, and MRI‐ESM2‐0 models have the best performance in simulating the Arctic SIC‐forced teleconnection. The CESM2, ACCESS‐CM2, NESM3, NorESM2‐MM, CAS‐ESM2‐0, MRI‐ESM2‐0 models have the best performance in simulating the ENSO‐forced teleconnection. The two best‐performing multi‐model ensembles well reproduce the dynamic processes of the Arctic SIC‐ and ENSO‐ forced teleconnection. The diversity of model performance is attributed to the different skills of different models in simulating the interannual variability of Arctic SIC, the anomalous deep warm high over the Barents‐Kara Seas, the interannual variability of tropical Pacific SSTs, and the wave number of poleward propagating Rossby waves. Plain Language Summary: The connection between Arctic and tropical climates has an important influence on the climate in Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic sea ice‐driven teleconnection may induce increased cold surges toward the low latitude regions of East Asia, while the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐driven teleconnection may induce increased temperatures over northern North America and Greenland. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models consists of state‐of‐the‐art numerical models that are widely used in climate simulation and prediction. Hence, it is important to understand the performance of these models in simulating the dynamic processes of Arctic‐tropical climate connection and the potential reasons. In this study, the dynamic processes in ocean‐atmosphere associated with the Arctic sea ice‐ and ENSO‐ driven teleconnection are first analyzed using observed/re‐analysis data. The performance of 24 CMIP6 models in simulating the dynamic processes of Arctic sea ice‐ and ENSO‐ driven teleconnection is then subjectively and objectively evaluated. The results indicate a diversity of performance in these models. This diversity are mainly caused by the different skills of models in simulating the interannual variability of SIC and ENSO as well as the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Key Points: The performance of CMIP6 models has a diversity in simulating the dynamic processes of Arctic‐tropical climate connectionBest‐performing multi‐model ensembles with good skill in simulating dynamic processes of Arctic‐tropical climate connection are selectedThe diversity in performance of models are affected by the skill of models in simulating the interannual variability sea ice and SSTs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to their significant influence on large‐scale atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies, the variability of Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover during late autumn and their combined effects have garnered increasing attention. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism underlying the covariation among the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC), Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) and the ensuing winter Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT). The statistics results of singular value decomposition suggest a significant linkage between the decreased BKS SIC, zonal “negative–positive” dipole SCE anomalies over Eurasia in November and cold Eurasian SAT in January–February (JF). Observational diagnosis analyses about the meridional moisture, heat transport and surface heat flux demonstrate that subpolar Eurasian anticyclonic circulation plays a crucial role in connecting the predominant modes of SIC and SCE. Furthermore, the BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE anomalies can jointly excite upward‐propagating planetary waves into the stratosphere, while simultaneously reducing the subpolar meridional temperature gradient. This results in westerly wind deceleration and favours the continuous planetary wave propagation. Consequently, the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly weakened, along with negative Northern Annular Mode anomalies propagating downward from the stratosphere to troposphere. Negative‐phase Arctic Oscillation anomalies correspondingly develop during JF, resulting in widespread cold anomalies over the Eurasian continent. These results are further confirmed by numerical sensitivity experiments from the Community Atmosphere Model forced by the above mentioned SIC and SCE anomalies. The empirical hindcast model analyses further suggest that the prediction skill of JF Eurasian SAT is enhanced when both the November BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE signals are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: We present the first 3-D upper-mantle conductivity models obtained by an inversion of the satellite-derived tidally induced magnetic fields (TIMFs). We primarily use the M $_2$ period, but the potential benefit of the O $_1$ period is also inspected. The inverse-problem solution is found using the recently developed frequency-domain, spherical harmonic finite-element method based on the adjoint approach. We tested two different TIMF data sets derived from the satellite measurements of the Swarm mission and two different regularizations; the solution is either required to be sufficiently smooth or reasonably close to the a priori 3-D conductivity model WINTERC-e Wd-emax. The reconstructed conductivity models are locally compared with the 1-D conductivity profiles from other studies. If we use one of the available TIMF data sets, the smooth reconstructed model gravitates towards Wd-emax and the TIMF-adjusted Wd-emax model is closer to the reference conductivity profiles than the original Wd-emax model. Finally, we use the obtained 3-D conductivity distributions to calculate the corresponding 3-D water distribution in the upper mantle using thermodynamical and compositional models coupled to the electrical-conductivity laboratory measurement of individual mantle constituents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East African Coastal Current (EACC) is an important western boundary current of the tropical south Indian Ocean and plays an important role in the ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycles in the Indian Ocean. This study investigates the interannual variability of the EACC and its dynamical mechanisms. The result shows that the EACC has interannual variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1993–2017. The EACC shows a significantly positive correlation with the Niño-3.4 index with a correlation coefficient of 0.65, lagging the Niño-3.4 index by 18 months. During the decaying phases of El Niño (La Niña) events, the negative (positive) sea level anomaly (SLA) propagates westward as upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves from the southeast Indian Ocean to the southwest Indian Ocean and then strengthens (weakens) the EACC due to zonal SLA gradient off the East African coast under geostrophic equilibrium. The SLA gradually weakens in the southeast Indian Ocean during its westward propagation but strengthens in the southwest Indian Ocean promoted by local wind stress curl anomaly. This study can improve our understanding of the relationship between the western boundary current of the tropical south Indian Ocean and large-scale ENSO air–sea processes and is important for managing marine fisheries and ecosystems on the East African coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the changing relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and eastern African precipitation. The results show that the negative correlation has significantly weakened since the late 1970s. And the Arabian anticyclonic circulation changed concurrently with the AO. In the mid‐high troposphere, the anomalous anticyclone centred over the Arabian Peninsula in 1980–2020 moved northeastward and weakened compared to 1950–1979. Correspondingly, the anomalous downward motion over eastern Africa significantly weakened compared with that in 1950–1979, corresponding to insignificant precipitation. A further analysis suggests that AO‐related Rossby wave trains in the upper troposphere may modulate the Arabian anticyclone. From 1950 to 1979, the wave activity preferred propagating eastward from the Mediterranean to Russia along a high‐latitude path. In contrast, during 1980–2020, it tended to emanate southeastward towards Saudi Arabia, with a notably stronger and more eastward extension than in the earlier period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progress in understanding the impact of mesoscale variability, including gravity waves (GWs), on atmospheric circulation is often limited by the availability of global fine-resolution observations and simulated data. This study presents momentum fluxes due to atmospheric GWs extracted from four months of an experimental "nature run", integrated at a 1 km resolution (XNR1K) using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) model. Helmholtz decomposition is used to compute zonal and meridional flux of vertical momentum from ~1.5 petabytes of data; quantities often emulated by climate model parameterization of GWs. The fluxes are validated using ERA5 reanalysis, both during the first week after initialization and over the boreal winter period from November 2018 to February 2019. The agreement between reanalysis and IFS demonstrates its capability to generate reliable flux distributions and capture mesoscale dynamic variability in the atmosphere. The dataset could be valuable in advancing our understanding of GW-planetary wave interactions, GW evolution around atmospheric extremes, and as high-quality training data for machine learning (ML) simulation of GWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and the Semiannual Oscillation have been identified to be the leading modes of variability in the tropical middle atmosphere. With reanalysis data and independent rocket soundings from a low latitude site, we report the existence of yet another variability in the tropical lower mesosphere which is primarily evident as easterly bursts in zonal winds during the months of May‐July. It occurs with a variable interval of 2–5 yrs in the late 20th century and 7–9 yrs in the early 21st century. These Quasi‐Periodic Easterly Bursts are found to have remote influences on the Antarctic polar vortex as well as residual circulation in the lower mesosphere. We identify a potential causative mechanism for the easterly bursts that involve enhanced cross equatorial advection of momentum as well as gravity wave drag. A close association with Quasi Biennial Oscillation winds is observed, however, cause of the observed periodicity remains elusive. Plain Language Summary: Circulation in the tropical middle atmosphere is distinctively different from that of the higher latitudes in that there exists long‐period oscillations chiefly driven by a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves. These oscillations that dominate the wind variability here, include the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Semiannual Oscillation (SAO) with approximate periods of 28 and 6 months, respectively. With the help of reanalysis data sets and independent rocket soundings from a low latitude site, we identify the existence of a hitherto unrecognized variability in the tropical middle atmosphere. The newly identified variability seems to have association with the Southern Hemispheric polar vortex as well as the transport circulation in the lower mesosphere. Further, an attempt is made to identify the causative mechanism using the framework of interaction of large‐scale planetary waves with the mean flow. Key Points: A new pattern of variability in the tropical middle atmosphere is identifiedThe observed variability is associated with stronger polar vortex and an enhanced residual circulation in the Southern Hemispheric mesosphereA close connection with the presence of an extended layer of westerlies in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation regime is observed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While weakening of the boreal polar vortex may be caused by autumnal Arctic sea ice loss, less is known about the interannual influence of Antarctic sea ice on stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Identifying any relationship over the short satellite period is difficult due to sampling variability and anthropogenic modification of the austral polar vortex. To circumvent these issues, we use large ensembles of fixed boundary condition simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to assess if and how interannual fluctuations in winter Antarctic sea ice influence spring planetary‐scale waves and the coupled stratosphere‐troposphere circulation. Low Antarctic sea ice conditions are found to modulate tropospheric stationary waves to project constructively onto the climatological stationary wave, enhancing upward planetary wave propagation into the austral polar stratosphere. In WACCM, the resulting vortex weakening coincides with development of negative Southern Annular Mode conditions during September–November. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic sea ice concentrations vary from year to year, and the presence or lack of sea ice can change how the atmosphere above it responds. Here we use two specially designed experiments to understand how year to year variations in Antarctic sea ice affect the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere. We find that the winds in the stratosphere are slower than normal in years with less than normal sea ice. These changes in winds high up in the atmosphere may invoke changes in winds closer to the surface and in precipitation, but this result is model‐dependent. Key Points: Anomalously low Antarctic sea ice in austral winter amplifies upward planetary wave propagation in the spring, weakening the polar vortexTwo climate models show the polar vortex weakening though it's only robust in one. This model has a negative Southern Annular Mode responseLarge polar vortex variability in early spring can mask the tropospheric circulation response to sea ice anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on multi‐model large‐ensemble experiments provided by Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), we investigate the influence of the projected sea ice loss in Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) and Sea of Okhotsk (SOK) on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Results show that future BKS sea ice reduction leads to a weakened SPV during November‐February by enhancing the upward‐propagating planetary wave 1, which is more pronounced during Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) easterly than westerly phase. Through weakening the upward‐propagating planetary wave 2, future SOK sea ice reduction is favorable for a strengthened SPV during January‐April. Inter‐model spread in the magnitudes of SPV responses to BKS sea ice reduction can be largely explained by the divergent planetary wave responses, but less so for SOK sea ice reduction. Results from a linearized baroclinic model further validate the importance of the planetary‐scale wave responses in explaining the differing SPV responses to sea‐ice loss over the two regions. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice reduction influences the Northern Hemispheric weather and climate through modulating Arctic stratospheric polar vortex, which is a band of strong westerly encircling the pole during winter at ∼15–40 km above the Earth's surface. However, sea ice reduction over different regions could lead to different effects on the polar vortex. Here, we compare the effects of future sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas, in the far‐north Atlantic Ocean, and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the northwest Pacific Ocean. We use carefully designed numerical simulations to estimate the effects of sea ice reduction, separately in the above‐mentioned two regions, on the polar vortex. Sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas weakens the polar vortex, whereas sea ice reduction over Sea of Okhotsk strengthens the polar vortex. These contrasting effects are explained by opposing changes in wave activity entering the stratosphere from below. Barents‐Kara sea ice reduction leads to the strengthened upward propagating planetary waves, which break in the stratosphere and slow the polar vortex. Conversely, Okhotsk sea ice loss reduces upward waves and strengthens the polar vortex. Key Points: Barents‐Kara and Sea of Okhotsk sea ice loss weakens and strengthens polar vortex, respectively, with attendant changes in SSW frequencyPlanetary wave responses to Barents‐Kara and Okhotsk sea ice loss interfere constructively and destructively with mean flow, respectivelyPolar vortex weakening induced by Barents‐Kara sea ice loss is greater during easterly than westerly Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June-September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward-slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross-equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra-Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric teleconnections from the Pacific El Niño are key to determining the East Asian winter climate. Using the database for policy decision-making for future climate change (d4PDF) large-ensemble simulations, the present study investigates a mechanism for the warm and cold East Asian winters during El Niño with a focus on atmospheric teleconnections triggered by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Our results show that the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern plays a primary role in the warm winters in East Asia. The WP pattern tends to appear in years when both an early El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode develop in boreal autumn. In those years, the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) strongly warms in the following winter, forming a distinct zonal contrast in precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific through a reduced Walker circulation. The Rossby wave source anomalies indicate that the WP pattern is associated with the weakened Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. By contrast, the WP pattern does not dominate in the cold winters due to the absence of strong TIO warming. The present study proposes a mechanism that promotes the excitation of the WP pattern through the upper-troposphere divergence in East Asia associated with the Walker circulation modulated by the tropical Indo-Pacific interbasin interaction. Significance Statement: The East Asian winter temperature variability is controlled not only by the strong atmospheric internal variability in the midlatitudes and high latitudes but also by remote forcing from the tropical ocean. Our study investigates how El Niño exerts diverse impacts on the East Asian winter temperature, depending on where atmospheric convection intensifies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Our results show that an intense warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and the early development of El Niño are the major factors for warm winters in East Asia. Given that a precursor of the intense Indian Ocean warming appears in boreal autumn, our findings should contribute to the improvement of seasonal prediction for the East Asian winter climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the planetary migration of low-mass planets (⁠|$M_p\in [1,15]\, \mathrm{ M}_{\oplus }$|⁠ , here |$\mathrm{ M}_{\oplus }$| is the Earth mass) in a gaseous disc containing a previously formed gap. We perform high-resolution 3D simulations with the fargo3d code. To create the gap in the surface density of the disc, we use a radial viscosity profile with a bump, which is maintained during the entire simulation time. We find that when the gap is sufficiently deep, the spiral waves excited by the planet trigger the Rossby wave instability, forming cyclonic (underdense) vortices at the edges of the gap. When the planet approaches the gap, it interacts with the vortices, which produce a complex flow structure around the planet. Remarkably, we find a widening of the horseshoe region of the planet produced by the vortex at the outer edge of the gap, which depending on the mass of the planet differs by at least a factor of two with respect to the standard horseshoe width. This inevitably leads to an increase in the co-rotation torque on the planet and produces an efficient trap to halt its inward migration. In some cases, the planet becomes locked in co-rotation with the outer vortex. Under this scenario, our results could explain why low-mass planets do not fall towards the central star within the lifetime of the protoplanetary disc. Lastly, the development of these vortices produces an asymmetric temporal evolution of the gap, which could explain the structures observed in some protoplanetary discs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the connection between significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific during boreal spring (February–April, FMA) and the subsequent South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset. The SST anomalies, similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), referred to as the PMM+ mode, are defined to examine the new influencing factor on the SCSSM onset. Our findings reveal that the (February–March–April, FMA) PMM+ has a noteworthy positive correlation with the subsequent May SCSSM onset date, with this correlation being minimally affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding winter. A robust positive PMM+ in boreal spring can be persist until May via atmosphere–ocean interaction. The cooling area over Western North Pacific would reduce precipitation heating, thereby generating Rossby waves that reinforce the formation of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS. As a result, easterly winds and suppressed convection prevail over the SCS, making the SCSSM break out later than normal. Furthermore, the amplification of anticyclonic vorticity anomalies also strengthens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) stronger and shifts its position further westward compared to normal years, thereby blocking active convection to the west of the SCS. Given the weakened relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SCSSM onset in recent years, the PMM+ could be considered as a promising preceding signal for the SCSSM onset, thus holding significant implications for the SCSSM prediction efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turbulence is the most important, ubiquitous, and difficult problem of classical physics. Feynman viewed it as essentially unsolved, without a rigorous mathematical basis to describe the statistical dynamics of this most complex of fluid motion. However, the paradigm shift came in 1959, with the formulation of the Eulerian direct interaction approximation (DIA) closure by Kraichnan. It was based on renormalized perturbation theory, like quantum electrodynamics, and is a bare vertex theory that is manifestly realizable. Here, we review some of the subsequent exciting achievements in closure theory and subgrid modelling. We also document in some detail the progress that has been made in extending statistical dynamical turbulence theory to the real world of interactions with mean flows, waves and inhomogeneities such as topography. This includes numerically efficient inhomogeneous closures, like the realizable quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA), and even more efficient Markovian Inhomogeneous Closures (MICs). Recent developments include the formulation and testing of an eddy-damped Markovian anisotropic closure (EDMAC) that is realizable in interactions with transient waves but is as efficient as the eddy-damped quasi-normal Markovian (EDQNM). As well, a similarly efficient closure, the realizable eddy-damped Markovian inhomogeneous closure (EDMIC) has been developed. Moreover, we present subgrid models that cater for the complex interactions that occur in geophysical flows. Recent progress includes the determination of complete sets of subgrid terms for skilful large-eddy simulations of baroclinic inhomogeneous turbulent atmospheric and oceanic flows interacting with Rossby waves and topography. The success of these inhomogeneous closures has also led to further applications in data assimilation and ensemble prediction and generalization to quantum fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inertial waves occur naturally in rotating fluids such as the Sun and the Earth's atmosphere. Rossby waves in the Sun have the potential to shed fresh light on interior turbulence and convection that prior seismic methods, reliant on sound waves, have been unable to accomplish. Here, we utilize ∼13 years of observational products taken by the space-based helioseismic and magnetic imager, onboard the solar dynamics observatory, to characterize solar equatorial Rossby waves. By examining maps of motions at the surface using two different methods, we are able to identify Rossby modes up to azimuthal order m = 30, approximately up to twice the spatial wavenumber limit of previous studies. The dispersion relation of these modes departs significantly from the classical two-dimensional Rossby-Haurwitz description. A parameter study of the effect of superadiabaticity and viscous diffusion on these inertial modes indicates that each parameter plays a role in influencing both the frequencies and linewidths of high m modes. Using the Rhines-scale relation, we constrain the root mean square amplitude of turbulent convection more tightly to ∼ 2 m/s, adding more evidence to the paradigm of weakly convective amplitudes at large scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early June 2023, New York City (NYC) and other cities in the northeastern US experienced a severe air pollution event. Although reports associated this hazardous pollution event with the smoke from Canadian wildfires, the factors triggering the southward waft of the smoke remain unclear. We found the northerly anomaly that transported the smoke was linked to the Rossby wave train excited by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Philippine Sea, which led to the formation of an enhanced northerly at the western edge of the cyclonic anomaly over the East Coast–North Atlantic. When the MJO convection left the western Pacific, the disorganized teleconnection caused the pollution to dissipate. Observational findings were further supported by model simulations and predictions. These results suggest that monitoring and predictions of MJO activity may help mitigate air pollution events over the northeastern US during Canadian wildfire seasons. Plain Language Summary: In early June 2023, New York and other northeastern US cities experienced a severe air pollution event for several days. The pollution was characterized by fine particulates exceeding normal levels by a substantial margin, posing a substantial threat to the public health of millions of people. While it was recognized that this smoke originated from extensive wildfires in Canada, the precise mechanisms driving its southward migration to NYC were not fully understood. Our investigation reveals that the emergence and dissipation of enhanced northerly, which transported the smoke southward, were linked with the wave train pattern forced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation, the largest element of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. The findings underscore the importance of monitoring MJO convection over the western Pacific–Philippine Sea area, as they hold potential for the prediction of air pollution events in NYC during the wildfire season in Canada, which of course has significant implications for environmental health and public safety. Key Points: Unprecedented air pollution occurred in NYC in early June 2023, triggering a public health crisis for millions of peopleThe smoke of the air pollution originated from raging wildfires in Canada, favored by a local high‐pressure anomalyA northerly anomaly induced by MJO teleconnection transported the smoke from eastern Canada toward NYC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface anticyclones connected to the ridge of an upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave are the main dynamical drivers of mid‐latitude summer heatwaves. It is, however, unclear to what extent an anomalously low zonal phase speed of the wave in the upper troposphere is necessary for persistent temperature extremes at the surface. Here, we use spectral decomposition to separate fast and slow synoptic‐scale waves. A composite analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that, while in some regions heatwaves become more frequent during episodes of weak or no phase propagation, temperature extremes in other regions are commonly associated with more rapidly eastward propagating Rossby waves. Reflected in the mean heatwave duration as well, this relationship is possibly linked to a longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves or a meridional storm track shift. These findings open up new questions about the influence of mid‐latitude dynamics on temperature extremes. Plain Language Summary: High pressure systems tend to be associated with mid‐latitude summer heatwaves, defined as multiple consecutive hot days. The persistence of heatwaves raises the question whether the associated high pressure system has to be anomalously persistent as well to cause a heatwave. Using a combination of observational data and atmospheric model output that is commonly regarded as ground truth for prediction purposes we find that this is not the case. By re‐distributing the location of on‐average high air pressure, some regions experience an increased heatwave frequency even if the atmospheric circulation is less persistent than usual. Understanding the link between persistent surface temperature extremes and the atmospheric circulation is important for the prediction and projection of extreme events in a warming climate. Key Points: Phase speed of synoptic‐scale waves is crucial for where, but less important for whether heatwaves occurA longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves is reflected in the mean heatwave durationChanges in phase speed are linked to a meridional storm track shift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geopotential height observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder show that the quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) events with westward zonal wavenumber 1 (W1) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during September 2013 and 2014 had a prolonged lifetime of ∼45–50 days and reached their maximum amplitudes after the September equinox, while the climatological Q6DW‐W1 is completely dissipated in the background atmosphere before the equinoxes. The Eliassen‐Palm flux diagnostic results indicate that Q6DW‐W1 during September 2013 and 2014 obtained an additional source at ∼60°‐80°S and ∼40–50 km as the September equinox approached, which is related to the baroclinic/barotropic instability in this region. Further investigation on the background atmosphere reveals that several stratospheric minor warming (SMW) events occurred in the Antarctic region during September 2013 and 2014 due to the enhancement of wavenumber 1 activities, accompanied by the increase in the stratospheric temperature, changes in the shape of the polar vortex and the reversal in the zonal mean circulation. The strong planetary wave breaking during the September 2013 and 2014 Antarctic SMW events significantly weakened the strength of the polar night jet (PNJ) and made its peak height descend below ∼35 km, which generated the baroclinic/barotropic instability at the new upper boundary of the PNJ (∼60°‐80°S and ∼40–50 km) by an anomalous double‐jet configuration in the background winds. This unusual instability provided additional wave source and energy for the trans‐equatorial propagation of Q6DW‐W1, which finally led to prolonged wave activities in the NH MLT region. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have suggested that sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) during wintertime can additionally trigger large‐amplitude traveling planetary waves (PWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region. However, due to the lower occurrence rate and intensity, there are few opportunities to study the impact of Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming on global PW behaviors, especially for the climatological event of the eigenmode in the Earth's atmosphere. The Aura satellite observations show that the third climatological event of quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 1 (W1) over one year had an exceptionally long duration in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) MLT region in 2013 and 2014, and abnormally peaked after the September equinox, which is not observed in other years since 2004. The reanalysis data confirms that the stratospheric minor warming (SMW) events occurred over the Antarctic region during September 2013 and 2014, which generated instability under an unusual double‐jet structure in the background winds to provide additional energy for the extension of Q6DW‐W1. The current results establish the relationship between the abnormal PW activities in the NH MLT region and the Antarctic SMW events and provide the first observational evidence that the double‐jet structure can influence the westward propagating PW. Key Points: The duration of the quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) with s = 1 (W1) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was greatly extended in September 2013 and 2014The Antarctic stratospheric minor warmings provided additional wave sources to disrupt the typical dissipation pattern of Q6DW‐W1 in the NHThe impact of the double‐jet structure in the Southern Hemisphere on the behavior of westward propagating planetary waves is first observed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known "southern China flood and northern China drought" pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. However, in this study, by using large ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), the influence of Arctic amplification, serving as the prominent feature of global warming, is very important in modulating the East Asian summer precipitation pattern, which is comparable to the influence of sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the observed "southern China flood and northern China drought" pattern only exists in July and August, whereas a triple pattern with the precipitation positive anomaly center over Middle China occurs in June. These patterns are closely connected with the regional differences in Arctic sea ice loss from June to July, affected through both the Rossby waves propagating in a weaker westerly jet and the decrease in the large-scale meridional thermal contrast in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravity wave (GW) momentum flux spectra help to uncover the mechanisms through which GWs influence momentum transfer in the atmosphere and provide crucial insights into accurately characterizing atmospheric wave processes. This study examines the momentum flux spectra of GWs in the troposphere (2–14 km) and stratosphere (18–28 km) over Koror Island (7.2°N, 134.3°W) using radiosonde data from 2013–2018. Utilizing hodograph analysis and spectral methods, the characteristics of momentum flux spectra are discussed. Given that the zonal momentum flux spectra of low-level atmospheric GWs generally follow a Gaussian distribution, Gaussian fitting was applied to the spectral structures. This fitting further explores the seasonal variations of the zonal momentum flux spectra and the average spectral parameters for each month. Additionally, the GW energy is analyzed using SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) satellite data and compared with the results of the momentum flux spectra from radiosonde data, revealing the close negative correlation between wave energy and wave momentum for stratospheric GW changing with time. The findings indicate that the Gaussian peak shifts more eastward in both the troposphere and stratosphere, primarily due to the absorption of eastward-propagating GWs by the winter tropospheric westerly jet and critical layer filtering. The full width at half maximum (FWHM) in the stratosphere is larger than in the troposphere, especially in June and July, as the spectrum broadens due to propagation effects, filtering, and interactions among waves. The central phase speed in the stratosphere exceeds that in the troposphere, reflecting the influences of Doppler effects and background wind absorption. The momentum flux in the stratosphere is lower than in the troposphere, which is attributed to jet absorption, partial reflection, or the dissipation of GWs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During February 2023, the quasi‐4‐day wave (Q4DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 2 (W2) reached its largest amplitude of ∼400 m in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) geopotential height observations since 2004, which occurred simultaneously with an Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with an elevated stratopause (ES). However, the Q4DW‐W2 perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) were unexpectedly suppressed despite the unstable Arctic stratosphere and mesosphere during the 2023 ES‐SSW. Diagnostic analysis shows that the westward winds at ∼54°N–70°N in the upper stratosphere of ∼‐79 m/s during the 2023 ES‐SSW were the strongest during boreal winters over the past two decades, which benefited from the onset of a preceding minor SSW at the end of January. The strongest westward wind generated a wave geometry configuration of full reflection for Q4DW‐W2 in the NH, while the Q4DW‐W2 enhancement in the SH was induced by the in‐situ amplification of the surviving seeding perturbations. Plain Language Summary: Among the planetary waves with a period of about 4 days, the eastward quasi‐4‐day wave (Q4DW) excited by the double‐jet structure in the Southern Hemisphere is the most famous one, while another Q4DW with westward zonal wavenumber 2 (W2) belonging to the normal modes of the Earth's atmosphere has attracted little attention. During the February 2023 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with an elevated stratopause (ES), the exceptional enhancement and suppression of Q4DW‐W2 were captured in the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere, respectively. Such global structure is first observed and abnormal among traveling planetary waves during SSW since they usually have a peak region in the unstable winter hemisphere. We found that the rare sequence of stratospheric disturbances in the 44‐year historical record that a minor SSW followed by an ES‐SSW led to the excessively strong westward wind during the 2023 ES‐SSW, which resulted in a wave geometry configuration of full reflection for Q4DW‐W2 in the Northern Hemisphere. Our current results well establish the relationship between a new global structure of traveling planetary waves during SSW and the rare sequence of stratospheric disturbances. This will deepen the understanding of the less studied Q4DW‐W2 and the Earth's whole atmospheric coupling during SSW. Key Points: The anomalous burst and suppression of quasi‐4‐day wave (Q4DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 2 (W2) were observed in the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere (NH) respectively during the February 2023 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with elevated stratopause (ES)The rare sequence of SSWs in January and February 2023 led to the strongest westward wind during boreal winters over the past two decadesThe strongest westward wind during the 2023 ES‐SSW created a wave geometry configuration of full reflection weakening the Q4DW‐W2 in the NH [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we explore the impact of oceanic moisture fluxes on atmospheric blocks using the ECMWF IFS. Artificially suppressing surface latent heat flux over the Gulf Stream (GS) region reduces atmospheric blocking frequency across the Northern Hemisphere by up to 30%. Affected blocks show a shorter lifespan (−6%), smaller spatial extent (−10%), and reduced intensity (−0.4%), with an increased number of individual blocking anticyclones (+17%). These findings are robust across various blocking detection thresholds. Analysis reveals a qualitatively consistent response across all resolutions, with Tco639 (∼18 km) showing the largest statistically significant change across all blocking characteristics, although differences between resolutions are not statistically significant. Exploring the broader Rossby wave pattern, we observe that diminished moisture fluxes favor eastward propagation and higher zonal wavenumbers, while air‐sea interactions promote stationary and westward‐propagating waves with zonal wavenumber 3. This study underscores the critical role of the GS in modulating atmospheric blocking. Plain Language Summary: In our study, we investigated how changes in oceanic moisture, specifically from the Gulf Stream (GS), affect atmospheric blocking events using the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. By artificially reducing the moisture flux from the GS area, we observed a notable decrease in the occurrence of atmospheric blocks across the Northern Hemisphere‐up to 30%. These blocks also showed changes in their characteristics: they had shorter durations by 6%, were 10% smaller in spatial size, and had a slight decrease in intensity, alongside a 17% increase in their detection rates. Our findings were consistent across different methods of identifying blocks. We also discovered that the model's resolution influences the observed changes, with coarser resolutions (larger than approximately 18 km) not showing significant alterations in some blocking traits despite the overall frequency reduction. Further analysis into Rossby wave patterns revealed that reduced moisture flux tends to favor faster eastward‐moving patterns with shorter wavelengths, whereas interactions between the air and sea support more stationary or westward‐moving waves, particularly those with a zonal wavenumber of 3. This highlights the crucial role that moisture from western boundary currents like the GS plays in the development and behavior of atmospheric blocking patterns. Key Points: Gulf Stream (GS) moisture flux suppression reduces atmospheric blocking across the Northern HemisphereGS moisture fluxes generate larger jet stream perturbations, fostering faster westward‐propagating Rossby wavesHigher resolution models enhance signal transport from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cold surges have frequently attacked North America (NA) in recent decades, which has been tied to the diminished sea‐ice over the Bering Sea. However, we find that the contribution of sea‐ice loss to NA winter coldness is state‐dependent on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. Using observations and CAM6 model simulations, we find that the phase regulates the atmospheric response to Bering ice loss. During the negative PDO phase (PDO−), there is an apparent eastward‐propagating wave train, accompanied by a strengthened Alaskan ridge and NA cold high, resulting in a robust cold over Central NA. Meanwhile, enhanced upward‐propagating planetary waves weaken the stratospheric polar vortex over the Pacific‐NA regions. During the positive phase (PDO+), the NA temperature response to Bering ice loss is quite weak or even warm. We speculate that more NA cold extremes will appear as the PDO− continues and less as the PDO− shifts to PDO+. Plain Language Summary: Rapid Arctic warming has led to significant local changes in the Arctic and more uncertain remote changes in the Northern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes. However, the link between the Arctic and mid‐latitude North America is state‐dependent. Here, we show that the atmospheric responses to Bering sea ice (SIC) are significantly regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. A significant Central North American cooling associated with Bering SIC loss during PDO− is due to the North American anticyclone and a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. While during PDO+, the North American temperature anomalies associated with reduced sea ice are weak and even warm. The contrasting impacts of Bering SIC loss between distinct PDO phases are because the circulation response to PDO− further strengthens the atmospheric response to the reduced Bering SIC. These new findings can help us improve the prediction of the North American cold extremes during distinct PDO phases. Key Points: Central North American cooling in response to Bering Sea ice loss is greater during the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phaseThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase can modulate the impact of Bering Sea ice loss on North American temperatureThe response to Bering Sea ice loss is associated with a strengthened Alaskan ridge during the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on the surface climate of East Asia by modulating the atmospheric circulation over the Kuroshio Extension. Here, we show that the ENSO–East Asia teleconnections are strongest in early winter due to the combined effects of the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent convections, but weakest in mid‐winter as these tropical convections weaken. During the early El Niño winter, convection is enhanced over the Indian Ocean and suppressed over the Maritime Continent. The associated Rossby wave trains constructively interfere over the Kuroshio Extension, resulting in anticyclonic circulation anomalies. The equatorial central Pacific convection has a minimal impact on the East Asia. This result suggests that the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent convections, rather than the equatorial central Pacific convection, are the precursors of the early winter ENSO–East Asia teleconnections, and need to be considered for subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction in East Asia. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences the winter surface climate in East Asia through atmospheric teleconnections. The ENSO teleconnections are particularly pronounced in early winter when an anomalous anticyclonic circulation developes over the Kuroshio Extension and transports warm and moist air to the East Asian continent, but weaken in mid‐winter. Here, we show that such subseasonal variability of the ENSO–East Asia teleconnections is primarily determined by tropical convection over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent, with a minimal impact of convection over the equatorial central Pacific where ENSO develops. Key Points: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections show distinct subseasonal variability over East Asia, with the strongest teleconnections in early winterThe ENSO–East Asia teleconnections are modulated by anomalous tropical convection over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent on subseasonal time scaleRossby wave trains induced by enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean and those by suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent constructively interfere over the East Asia during the early El Niño winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability of non-migrating diurnal tides are investigated using Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30) in zonal and meridional wind data from 1979 to 2010. Diurnal stationary tide (DS0) is found to maximise during boreal summers in both hemispheres in the middle atmosphere while the diurnal westward propagating tide of wavenumber two (DW2) maximises during boreal winters in both hemispheres. Both tides show strong annual variations over sub-tropical regions centered over ± 25 ° latitudes along with significant short term variability from 20 to 100 days. The investigations of short term variations of DW2 show significant correspondence with the variability of stationary planetary wave of wavenumber one (SPW1) in the high latitudes in both hemispheres as well as with DW2 amplitudes from lower atmosphere. It is thereby concluded in the current study that DW2 in the mesosphere is not only produced by non-linear interactions of SPW1 and the diurnal migrating tide (DW1) but also has contributions from sources in the lower atmosphere. On the other hand, variability of DS0 does not show any similarity with that of SPW1 and thereby indicate sources only from the lower atmosphere. In the high-latitude stratosphere, DS0 and DW2 amplitudes are negligible and thereby the contribution of non-linear interactions to their generation in this region is minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the sources for spread in the response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to global warming in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) model projections. About half of the intermodel spread in SPV projections by CMIP6 models, but less than a third in CMIP5 models, can be attributed to the intermodel spread in stationary planetary wave driving. In CMIP6, SPV weakening is mostly driven by increased upward wave flux from the troposphere, while SPV strengthening is associated with increased equatorward wave propagation away from the polar stratosphere. We test hypothesized factors contributing to changes in the upward and equatorward planetary wave fluxes and show that an across‐model regression using projected global warming rates, strengthening of the subtropical jet and basic state lower stratospheric wind biases as predictors can explain nearly the same fraction in the CMIP6 SPV spread as the planetary wave driving (r = 0.67). The dependence of the SPV spread on the model biases in the basic state winds offers a possible emergent constraint; however, a large uncertainty prevents a substantial reduction of the projected SPV spread. The lack of this dependence in CMIP5 further calls for better understanding of underlying causes. Our results improve understanding of projected SPV uncertainty; however, further narrowing of the uncertainty remains challenging. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies showed that changes in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex can affect near‐surface weather on various timescales. However, climate models do not agree on whether the polar vortex will weaken or strengthen during the 21st century. Here, we use Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments to better understand how the polar vortex will respond to future greenhouse gas emissions. We show that changes in the propagation of large‐scale atmospheric waves can explain nearly half of the spread in the vortex strength projections by the end of the 21st century by CMIP6 models. Increased upward propagation of the waves to the stratosphere leads to vortex weakening while increased equatorward propagation within the stratosphere leads to strengthening. We identify three factors associated with projected changes in the vortex strength across CMIP6 models: projected rates of global warming, projected rates of subtropical jet stream strengthening and model errors in lower stratospheric winds in the past climate. Stronger global warming rates and stronger past lower stratospheric winds are associated with vortex strengthening, while larger strengthening of the subtropical jet stream is associated with weakening. However, these relationships are weak in CMIP5 models. Key Points: About half of the projected stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) uncertainty in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) can be attributed to stationary planetary wave drivingProjected polar vortex weakening and strengthening are linked to increased upward and equatorward wave propagation respectivelyA relationship is found between past lower stratospheric wind biases and SPV projections across CMIP6 models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive understanding of propagation patterns of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for early warning of associated hazards such as floods and landslides. In this study, we utilize climate networks based on an event synchronization measure to investigate the propagation patterns of EPEs over the global land masses, and identify 16 major propagation pathways. We explain them in association with regional weather systems, topographic effects, and travelling Rossby wave patterns. We also demonstrate that the revealed propagation pathways carry substantial EPE predictability in certain areas, such as in the Appalachian, the Andes mountains. Our results help to improve the understanding of key propagation patterns of EPEs, where the global diversity of the propagated patterns of EPEs and corresponding potential predictability provide prior knowledge for predicting EPEs, and demonstrate the power of climate network approaches to study the spatiotemporal connectivity of extreme events in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Hemisphere climate and weather are affected by several modes of variability and climate phenomena across different time and spatial scales. An additional key component of the atmosphere dynamics that greatly influences weather is quasi-stationary Rossby waves, which attract particular interest as they are often associated with synoptic-scale extreme events. In the Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation, the most prominent quasi-stationary Rossby wave pattern is the zonal wavenumber 3 (ZW3), which has been shown to have impacts on meridional heat and momentum transport in mid- to high latitudes and on the Antarctic sea ice extent. However, little is known about its impacts outside of polar regions. In this work, we use ERA5 reanalysis data on monthly time scales to explore the influence of phase and amplitude of ZW3 on temperature and precipitation across the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Our results show a significant impact in various regions for all seasons. One of the most substantial effects is observed in precipitation over southeastern Brazil during austral summer, where different phases of the ZW3 force opposite anomalies. When using the ZW3 phase and amplitude as prior information, the probability of occurrence of precipitation extremes in this region increases up to three times. Additionally, we find that this ZW3 weather signature is largely independent of the zonally symmetric Southern Annular Mode (SAM); neither does it seem to be linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid–high latitude atmosphere, the instability of planetary waves characterizes enhanced planetary wave activity or amplified large‐scale waviness leading to increased regional weather extremes. In this paper, a nonlinear Schrödinger equation is derived to describe the evolution of planetary waves. Then the consequences of Arctic amplification (AA)‐induced meridional background potential vorticity (PVy) changes on the modulational instability of planetary waves are examined. It is found that the modulational instability of uniform planetary wave trains mainly results from the presence of high‐order dispersion and nonlinearity, even though such an instability depends on the amplitude, vertical structure and zonal wavenumber of uniform planetary waves and the atmospheric stratification. Because the nonlinearity and high‐order dispersion depend on the magnitude of PVy, the modulational instability of planetary waves is significantly influenced by the variation of PVy associated with AA. It is also revealed that stronger modulational instability of planetary waves tends to occur in the smaller PVy region or in higher latitudes due to both stronger nonlinearity and weaker high‐order dispersion for fixed background and planetary wave parameters, which is conducive to more intense large‐scale waviness. However, because AA can reduce PVy in the mid–high latitudes mainly in the lower troposphere via reductions of winter zonal winds and meridional temperature gradients, the reduced PVy under AA can significantly enhance the modulational instability. Thus, the role of AA is to amplify planetary wave activity in mid–high latitudes through strengthening the modulational instability of planetary waves due to reduced PVy, which further enhances large‐scale waviness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The equatorial mixed Rossby–gravity wave (MRGW) is an important contributor to tropical variability. Its excitation mechanism capable of explaining the observed MRGW variance peak at synoptic scales in the troposphere remains elusive. This study investigates wave–mean flow interactions as a generation process for the MRGWs using the TIGAR model, which employs Hough harmonics as the basis of spectral expansion on the sphere, thereby representing MRGWs as prognostic variables. Idealized numerical simulations reveal the interactions between waves emanating from a symmetric tropical heat source and an asymmetric subtropical zonal jet as an excitation mechanism for the MRGWs. The excited MRGWs have variance spectra resembling the observed MRGWs in the tropical troposphere. The mixed Rossby–gravity energy spectrum has a maximum at zonal wavenumbers k=4$$ k=4 $$–5 also in the case of an asymmetric forcing that generates MRGWs across large scales. Effects of wave–wave interactions appear of little importance for the MRGW growth compared with wave–mean flow interactions. Application of the zonal‐mean zonal wind profiles from ERA5 reaffirms the importance of the asymmetry of the zonal mean flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precipitation trend patterns in South America (SA) are determined using trend empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 1951–2016 period. The associated large‐scale tropical and extratropical anomalous circulation patterns are also examined. The words "total" and "residual" refer to the monthly anomalies and monthly anomalies without the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, respectively. The total precipitation features a positive trend in southeastern SA (SESA, southern Brazil, Uruguay, most of eastern Argentina) and northern Chile, and a negative trend over central‐eastern Brazil and central Amazonia. The residual precipitation shows an increased positive trend over most of the coastal extension of northern SA and Colombia; a weak positive trend over southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and northern Chile; and a negative trend over central‐eastern SA and western Amazonia. The differences between the total and residual precipitation trend patterns in tropical SA is explained as responses to total and residual zonally asymmetric anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, respectively. The total SST pattern along the equatorial Pacific configures the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which impacts ENSO variability and as response intensifies the Walker circulation. Without the ENSO, the Walker cell is mainly driven by the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which configure residual asymmetric anomalous warming. Furthermore, the warming in the equatorial Indian and eastern Pacific Oceans, in the presence of ENSO, induces a Rossby wave train‐type anomalous pattern that extends across the South Pacific into SA and modulates the atmospheric anomalous circulation over SESA. In this region, an anomalous anticyclonic accompanied by an intensified South American Low‐Level Jet induces a moisture transport to SESA. This anticyclone is also observed in the absence of ENSO but is weaker. The results suggest the importance of ocean warming in the western Pacific‐Indian in the modulation of extratropical teleconnections to SESA in the tropical ocean warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical central‐eastern Pacific and the subsequent summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and its possible mechanism using 1979–2023 monthly SST and SIC data from Hadley Center and atmospheric reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. It is found that the relationship between the winter tropical Pacific SST and the subsequent summer SIC of Beaufort Sea experienced an obvious interdecadal change from a significant negative correlation to a weak and insignificant correlation before and after the early 2000s, respectively. Before the early 2000s, when winter SST warming (cooling) anomalies occurred in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it could sustain into summer and enhance a Rossby wave propagating from Tropic to high latitude, forming negative (positive) pressure anomalies in the North Pacific. Influenced by such anomalies, it is conducive to maintaining negative (positive) SST anomalies in the North Pacific from winter to subsequent summer. The summer SST cooling (warming) in the North Pacific could form a favourable atmospheric circulation anomaly for less (more) SIC. In contrast, after the early 21st century, the strong SST anomalies in winter over the eastern tropical Pacific would weaken with time and subsequently diminish in spring, leading to the SST anomalies in the North Pacific persist to spring, which can hardly affect summer SIC anomaly in the Beaufort Sea. Therefore, the relationship collapses after the the early 2000s due to the weakened persistence of the eastern tropical Pacific SST anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated relationships between year‐to‐year variability in precipitation in the rainy season in Mozambique and major modes of climate variability in the Tropics and subtropics. The Niño3.4 index was strongly negatively correlated with precipitation in Mozambique's southern and central regions. We suggest that Rossby wave propagation reaching Southern Africa from the tropical Pacific is key to the relationship between precipitation in Mozambique and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole did not lead rainy‐season precipitation, but showed a simultaneous correlation with precipitation in southern, central and northeastern regions. Benguela Niño was found to have a significant positive lead correlation by 6 months with precipitation in the southern, central and northwestern regions. In contrast, Indian Ocean Dipole led precipitation in the southern, central and northeastern regions by 3 months. Overall, the modes of climate variability exerted stronger control over precipitation variability in southern and central Mozambique, and weaker control in northern Mozambique, particularly in the northwestern region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) frequently experience extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during June and July, the so-called Meiyu season. This study investigated EPEs in the MLYR during Meiyu seasons over 1961–2022, using rain gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. EPEs associated with the Northeast China cold vortex featured more undulating westerlies with a distinct wave train pattern from Europe to Northeast Asia. Due to robust Rossby wave energy, the trough deepened from Northeast China towards the MLYR and was confronted with a westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high. Such a configuration enhanced the warm and moist monsoon conveyor belt and convergence of water vapor flux from southwestern China to the MLYR. The warm and moist air favored upward motion. The increased rainfall prevailed from southwestern China to the MLYR. In contrast, ordinary EPEs were characterized by zonal westerlies and weaker Rossby wave propagation. The Meiyu trough was comparatively shallow and confined to the MLYR with less westward expansion of the subtropical high. In response, the warm and moist monsoon conveyor belt was more localized, resulting in weaker EPEs in the MLYR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterizations for internal gravity waves in atmospheric models are traditionally subject to a number of simplifications. Most notably, they rely on both neglecting wave propagation and advection in the horizontal direction (single-column assumption) and an instantaneous balance in the vertical direction (steady-state assumption). While these simplifications are well justified to cover some essential dynamic effects and keep the computational effort small, it has been shown that both mechanisms are potentially significant. In particular, the recently introduced Multiscale Gravity Wave Model (MS-GWaM) successfully applied ray-tracing methods in a novel type of transient but columnar internal gravity wave parameterization (MS-GWaM-1D). We extend this concept to a three-dimensional version of the parameterization (MS-GWaM-3D) to simulate subgrid-scale nonorographic internal gravity waves. The resulting global wave model—implemented into the weather forecast and climate code Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON)—contains three-dimensional transient propagation with accurate flux calculations, a latitude-dependent background source, and convectively generated waves. MS-GWaM-3D helps reproduce expected temperature and wind patterns in the mesopause region in the climatological zonal mean state and thus proves a viable internal gravity wave (IGW) parameterization. Analyzing the global wave action budget, we find that horizontal wave propagation is as important as vertical wave propagation. The corresponding wave refraction includes previously missing but well-known effects such as wave refraction into the polar jet streams. On a global scale, three-dimensional wave refraction leads to a horizontal flow-dependent redistribution of waves such that the structures of the zonal mean wave drag and consequently the zonal mean winds are modified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cut-off lows (COLs) exhibit diverse structures and lifecycles, ranging from confined upper-tropospheric systems to deep, multi-level vortex structures. While COL climatologies are well documented, the mechanisms driving their deepening remain unclear. To bridge this gap, a novel track matching algorithm applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis investigates the vertical extent of Southern Hemisphere COLs. Composite analysis based on structure and eddy kinetic energy budget differentiates four COL categories: shallow, deep, weak, and strong, revealing similarities and disparities. Deep, strong COLs concentrate around Australia and the southwestern Pacific, peaking in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs are more common in summer and closer to the Equator. Despite their differences, both contrasting types evolve energetically via anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking. The distinct roles of jet streams in affecting COL types are addressed: intense polar front jets correlate with more deep COLs, whereas stronger subtropical jets relate to fewer shallow COLs. The COL deepening typically occurs in the presence of a robust upstream polar front jet, which enhances ageostrophic flux convergence and baroclinic processes. The subtropical jet positively correlates with COL intensity but weakens when considering the seasonality, suggesting uncertainties in this relationship. Additionally, we highlight the significance of diabatic processes in COL deepening, addressing their misrepresentation in reanalysis and emphasizing the need for more observational and modelling studies to refine the energetic framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the subtropical‐midlatitude Southern Hemisphere are often associated with a circumpolar wavenumber‐4 (W4) pattern. This study is the first attempt to successfully simulate the SST‐W4 pattern using a state‐of‐the‐art coupled model called SINTEX‐F2 and clarify the underlying physical processes. It is found that the SST variability in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) plays a key role in triggering atmospheric variability and generating the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer (December‐February). In contrast, the tropical SST variability has a very limited effect. The anomalous convection and associated divergence over the SWSP induce atmospheric Rossby waves confined in the westerly jet. Then, the synoptic disturbances circumnavigate the subtropical Southern Hemisphere, establishing an atmospheric W4 pattern. The atmospheric W4 pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, and it interacts with the upper ocean, causing variations in mixed layer depth due to latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. As incoming climatological solar radiation goes into a thinner (thicker) mixed layer, the shallower (deeper) mixed layer promotes surface warming (cooling). This leads to positive (negative) SST anomalies, developing the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer. Subsequently, anomalous entrainment due to the temperature difference between the mixed layer and the water below the mixed layer, anomalous LHF, and disappearance of the overlying atmospheric W4 pattern cause the decay of the SST‐W4 pattern during austral autumn. These results indicate that accurate simulation of the atmospheric forcing and the associated atmosphere‐ocean interaction is essential to capture the SST‐W4 pattern in coupled models. Plain Language Summary: In the subtropical‐midlatitude Southern Hemisphere, we often observe year‐to‐year fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) linked to a specific pattern known as wavenumber‐4 (W4). This study represents the first successful attempt to simulate this temperature pattern using a climate emulator called SINTEX‐F2, allowing us to uncover its physical processes. Our research reveals that SST variations in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) play a pivotal role in generating the W4 pattern in the atmosphere, subsequently influencing SST during austral summer. Interestingly, this pattern is almost independent of tropical SST variability. The process starts with heating in the SWSP, causing atmospheric disturbances. This leads to an undulation in mid‐latitude atmospheric flow, evolving into a well‐established global Rossby wave with four positive (negative) loading centers, forming a W4 pattern. This atmospheric wave interacts with the ocean's surface, leading to heat exchange between the atmosphere and the upper ocean. In turn, it influences the depth of the mixed layer in the upper ocean, which receives solar energy. When solar energy penetrates into a shallower (deeper) mixed layer, it warms (cools) the mixed layer effectively, resulting in higher (lower) SSTs. Afterwards, the energy exchange between the mixed layer and the deep ocean contributes to the decay of the SST pattern. Key Points: First attempt to successfully simulate the wavenumber‐4 (W4) pattern of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) using a coupled model, uncovering the underlying physical processesSouthwestern subtropical Pacific SST plays a crucial role in generating SST W4 pattern via circumpolar atmospheric variabilityThe ocean mixed layer and upper ocean processes are found to be important for the growth and decay of the SST pattern [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The work presents the development of Rhines' theory for mixed topographic-planetary waves in a stratified ocean on a background current. The vertical anisotropy of baroclinic Rossby waves has been established depending on the slopes of the topography. If for positive slopes (water shallowing to the north) the baroclinic mode node shifts downward, then for negative slopes the frequency and phase velocity decrease and the vertical node shifts upward. Estimates of frequency variability for vertical modes at a negative bottom slope were obtained. For weak changes in bottom topography in the long-wave limit, an analytical asymptotic expression of the dispersion relation for the surface mode is constructed for positive and negative slopes. The dispersion curves in one-dimensional and two-dimensional cases were analyzed numerically. It is shown that the range of influence of topography on baroclinic waves reaches maximum deviations of the order of 50% in the long-wave part of the spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistics of day‐to‐day tidal variability within 35‐day running mean windows is obtained from Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐Resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI)/Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) observations in the 90–107 km height region for the year 2020. Temperature standard deviations for 18 diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components, and for four quasi‐stationary planetary waves are presented, as function of latitude, altitude, and day‐of‐year. Our results show that the day‐to‐day variability (DTDV) can be as large as 70% of the monthly mean amplitudes, thus providing a significant source of variability for the ionospheric E‐region dynamo and hence for the F‐region plasma. We further validate our results with COSMIC‐2 ionospheric observations and present an approach to extend the MIGHTI/ICON results to all latitudes using Hough Mode Extension fitting, to produce global tidal fields and their statistical DTDV that are suitable as lower boundary conditions for nudging and ensemble modeling of TIE‐GCM. In the future, this will likely help to establish a data‐driven perspective of space weather variability caused by the tidal weather of the lower atmosphere. Key Points: Statistics of the day‐to‐day variability (DTDV) of diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the ionospheric dynamo region is obtained from Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐Resolution Thermospheric Imaging/Ionospheric Connection ExplorerDTDV is validated with COSMIC‐2 ionospheric observationsStatistics is extended to all latitudes using Hough Mode Extensions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Venus atmosphere Superrotation (SR) is successfully simulated with the high‐resolution (1.25° × 1.25° in longitude and latitude) runs of the Venus Planetary Climate Model (PCM). The results show a clear spectrum and structure of atmospheric waves, primarily with periods of 5.65 and 8.5 days. The simulation reproduces long‐term quasi‐periodic oscillation of the zonal wind and primary planetary‐scale wave seen in observations. These oscillations occur with a period of 163–222 days, although their existence is still debated in observations. The Rossby waves show similarity in wave characteristics and angular momentum (AM) transport due to Rossby‐Kelvin instability by comparing the 5.65‐day wave in Venus PCM with the 5.8‐day wave simulated by AFES‐Venus, another Venus General Circulation Model. Similarities are also evident between the 8.5‐day wave in Venus PCM and the 7‐day wave obtained in AFES‐Venus. The long‐term variations in the AM budget indicate that the 5.65‐day wave is the dominant factor of the oscillation on the SR, and the 8.5‐day wave plays a secondary role. When the 5.65‐day wave grows, its AM and heat transport are enhanced and accelerate (decelerate) the lower‐cloud equatorial jet (cloud‐top mid‐latitude jets). Meanwhile, the 8.5‐day wave weakens, reducing its deceleration effect on the lower‐cloud equator. This further suppresses the meridional gradient of the background wind and weakens instability, leading to the decay of the 5.65‐day wave. And vice versa when the 5.65‐day wave decays. Plain Language Summary: On Venus, large‐scale waves in the atmosphere play a crucial role in maintaining its fast westward‐moving atmosphere, known as superrotation (SR). Previous observations suggest that there might be long‐term variations in the SR. We simulated the Venusian SR using a high‐resolution atmospheric computer model to understand the mechanism behind this phenomenon. The simulation reproduced the variations in SR and the main large‐scale waves observed in reality. Among these waves, the one with a 5.65‐day period is the strongest wave in the upper clouds of Venus, in addition to the atmospheric thermal tides. In the simulations, the SR always varies with the changes in the 5.65‐day wave. This result indicates that the 5.65‐day wave significantly influences SR, possibly explaining the long‐term variations observed in SR. Key Points: Rossby‐Kelvin instability wave mode and their angular momentum (AM) transport to super‐rotation are robust in at least 2 Venus General Circulation ModelsLong‐term quasi‐periodic (163–222 days) variations in the superrotation and dominant wave simulated by Venus Planetary Climate Model are close to observationsDynamically conserved AM from circulation, 5.65‐day, and 8.5‐day waves drives quasi‐periodic variations of the local jets [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyze drivers of non–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation variability in the Southwest United States (SWUS) and the influence of the atmospheric basic state, using atmosphere-only and ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble. A cluster analysis identifies three main wave trains associated with non-ENSO SWUS precipitation in the experiments: a meridional ENSO-type wave train, an arching Pacific–North American-type (PNA) wave train, and a circumglobal zonal wave train. The zonal wave train cluster frequency differs between models and ENSO phase, with decreased frequency during El Niño and the coupled runs, and increased frequency during La Niña and the atmosphere-only runs. This is consistent with an El Niño–like bias of the atmospheric circulation in the coupled model, with strengthened subtropical westerlies in the central and eastern North Pacific that cause a retraction of the waveguide in the midlatitude eastern North Pacific. As such, zonal wave trains from the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) are more likely to be diverted southward in the east Pacific in the coupled large ensemble, with a consequently smaller role in driving SWUS precipitation variability. This study illustrates the need to reduce model biases in the background flow, particularly relating to the jet stream, in order to accurately capture the role of large-scale teleconnections in driving SWUS precipitation variability and improve future forecasting capabilities.

The spontaneous formation of zonal jets is a distinctive feature of geostrophic turbulence with the phenomenon witnessed in numerous numerical studies. In such systems, strong rotation anisotropises the spectral evolution of the energy density such that zonal modes are favoured. In physical space, this manifests as eddies zonally elongating and forming into zonal jets. In the presence of large scale dissipation, the flow may reach statistical stationarity such that the zonal structure persists in the zonal and time mean, and is supported by a flux of eddy momentum. What is unclear is how the excitation of Rossby waves arranges the underlying eddy momentum stresses to support the mean flow structures. To study this, we examine a steady-state flow in the so-called 'zonostrophic' regime, in which characteristic scales of geostrophic turbulence are well separated and there are several alternating zonal jets that have formed spontaneously. We apply a geometric eddy ellipse formulation, in which momentum fluxes are cast as ellipses that encode information about the magnitude and direction of flux; the latter is described using the tilt angle. With the aid of a zonal filter, it is revealed that the scales responsible for providing the momentum fluxes associated with the jet structure are much smaller than the characteristic scales identified, and occupy a region of the energy spectrum that has been typically associated with isotropic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eurasia is a sensitive and high-risk region for global climate changes, where climate anomalies significantly influence natural ecosystems, human health, and economic development. The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly is crucial to interannual precipitation variations in Eurasia. Several studies have focused on the link between the NAT and climate anomalies in winter and spring. However, the mechanism by which the summer NAT impacts climate anomalies in Eurasia remains unclear. This study examines how the NAT impacts interannual variations of summer precipitation in mid–high-latitude Eurasia. Precipitation variations are associated with the atmospheric teleconnection triggered by the NAT. When the NAT is in its positive phase, the anomalous atmospheric diabatic heating over the North Atlantic excites an equivalent-barotropic Rossby wave train response that propagates eastward toward Eurasia, resulting in atmospheric circulation anomalies over the region. The combined effects of atmospheric circulation, radiative forcing, and water vapor transport anomalies lead to decreased precipitation across northern Europe and central Eurasia, with higher precipitation anomalies over northeast Asia. Finally, numerical experiments verify that the summer NAT excites atmospheric teleconnections that propagate downstream, affecting precipitation anomalies in mid–high-latitude Eurasia. This study provides a scientific basis for predicting Eurasian summer precipitation and strengthening disaster management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the motivation of the South Asian jet wave train (SAJW) and its underlying mechanism, by distinguishing different evolutions of disturbance sources over the North Atlantic. The disturbance sources propagate along the SAJW toward the western North Pacific in the propagating cases, while they are constrained over the North Atlantic and Europe in the interrupted cases. The possible motivating mechanisms are disclosed in the perspectives of energy dispersion and background potential vorticity gradient (PVG) affecting energy attraction. In the propagating cases, wave energy propagates eastward over the North Atlantic and converges into the Mediterranean Sea and Middle East, leading to the amplification and development of the wave train. The enhancement of PVG over south Europe–Mediterranean Sea is a key factor attracting such eastward propagation, which is associated with the positive PV anomaly over north Europe driven by the diabatic heating of precipitation. In the interrupted cases, energy dispersion is more divergent over the North Atlantic because of the weaker PVG, resulting in the failure of the SAJW excitement. The impacts of the SAJW on the temperature and precipitation along its path are evident, with the modulated snow depth agreeing more with temperature rather than precipitation except over the Tibetan Plateau. Hence, understanding the motivating mechanism of the SAJW is essential for improving weather forecasts over subtropical Eurasia by using the disturbances over the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The zonal wavenumber-5 circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern is one of the most critical atmospheric teleconnection patterns during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). CGT can exert significant climatic impact across NH including Europe, East Asia, and North America, but how reliable coupled climate models simulate the characteristics of CGT is poorly understood. Here, 20 coupled models with their respective versions in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and CMIP6 are selected to evaluate their performance on CGT simulation. We find that while both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are able to capture the basic features of CGT in multimodel mean (MMM), there are large intermodel discrepancies in the simulation of CGT pattern among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. High-skill models exhibit strong action center over west-central Asia, coinciding with the pattern derived from reanalysis, while the corresponding action center in low-skill models is weaker. Further analyses demonstrate that high-skill models are capable of simulating more realistic Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation anomalies related to CGT. The resultant anomalous upper-tropospheric divergence over west-central Asia, acting as a Rossby wave source, can therefore excite the abovementioned action center. This high- and low-skill model difference on CGT–ISM relationship is consistent in both CMIP5 and CMIP6. It is also found that high-skill models tend to simulate more realistic CGT–ENSO relationship. The relationship between simulation skills of CGT–ENSO correlation and CGT spatial pattern is attributed to the remote impact of ENSO on CGT wave train through affecting ISM precipitation anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) over the western North Pacific (WNP) has not been thoroughly explored in previous studies. Here, we show that the TCP variations are modulated by both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) as evidenced by reanalysis data and model experiments. A clustering analysis of tropical cyclone tracks shows that the AMO dominates a dipole pattern of TCP anomalies in the South China Sea and along the coastal eastern China. Meanwhile, the IPO dominates TCP over the southeastern WNP. Further analyses show that the AMO, particularly its extratropical component, affects TCP over the WNP by triggering an eastward‐propagating Rossby‐wave train, resulting in a pair of anomalous gyres over the WNP. Contrastly, the IPO modulates TCP by stimulating tropical circulation anomalies via the tropical pathway. These findings shed light on improving near‐term TCP forecast and its regional influence on East Asia. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) is a topic of great concern owing to its destructive nature. Here, we find that TCP over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits significantly interdecadal variability and regional characteristics, a departure from the previous studies focusing on the entire WNP. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) mainly causes a dipole response of decadal changes in TCP over the South China Sea and coastal eastern China. Moreover, the AMO primarily affects TCP over the sub‐regional WNP through the extra‐tropical pathway by exciting a Rossby wave train. On the other hand, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) predominantly affects TCP over the southeastern part of the WNP through the tropical pathway, inducing significant circulation anomalies over the tropical WNP. These findings offer valuable insights for future research and forecasting of TCP. Key Points: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) contributes to the dipole pattern of interdecadal tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) anomalies over the South China Sea and coastal eastern ChinaThe AMO affects TCP by triggering a westerly jet‐guided Rossby‐wave train via the extra‐tropical pathwayThe Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation dominates the TCP anomalies over the southeastern part of western North Pacific by modulating tropical circulation anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]