1. Identifying Gazelles : Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential
- Author
-
Fafchamps, Marcel and Woodruff, Christopher
- Subjects
INFORMATION ,INVESTMENT ,BUDGET ,PURCHASE ,COMMUNICATION ,WAGE ,STARTUPS ,TRAINING PROGRAMS ,CUSTOMER BASE ,INFLATION ,CRITERIA ,INDIRECT COSTS ,ANNUAL STATEMENT ,EMAIL ADDRESS ,INCOME ,ADVERTISING ,BANK LOAN ,SALE ,EDUCATION ,STOCK ,CALCULATIONS ,BUSINESS ,BANK ,RENT ,TRAINING PROGRAM ,RAPID GROWTH ,ENTREPRENEURIAL SKILL ,BUSINESS TRAINING ,COMPUTER ,QUESTIONNAIRE ,TRAINING COURSE ,PROFIT ,BUSINESS ASSOCIATIONS ,VALUABLE ,FINANCE ,PRICES ,CONSULTING FIRM ,PILOT PROJECT ,SMALL BUSINESSES ,BALANCE SHEET ,SUPPLIES ,LITERACY ,MONEY ,SMALL BUSINESS ,PERFORMANCE ,CONTRIBUTION ,ANNUAL INTEREST RATE ,DIRECT MARKETING ,SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS ,WORKING CAPITAL ,GOVERNMENT POLICIES ,LOW‐INCOME ,CASH FLOW ,MARKETING ,APPLICATION FORM ,FINANCIAL LITERACY ,OWNERSHIP ,PROTOCOL ,TELEPHONE ,DATA ,RESOURCES ,DEMAND ,SAVINGS ACCOUNT ,ELECTRICITY ,ACCOUNT ,MANUFACTURING ,CUSTOMERS ,LENDERS ,BUSINESS PLANS ,ACCOUNTING ,OPEN ACCESS ,RESULT ,EXPENSES ,GROWTH POTENTIAL ,AVERAGE GROWTH ,LOAN EXPERIENCE ,SCHOLARSHIP ,LOWER‐ INCOME ,LARGE FIRM ,FUTURE GROWTH ,RECORD KEEPING ,WEB ,PROBABILITY ,CONSULTANT ,TARGET ,LIABILITY ,BUSINESS PLAN ,EQUIPMENT ,REVENUE ,CONSULTANTS ,PRICE ,TIME PERIOD ,TRAINING ,SOCIAL PROTECTION ,MATERIALS ,BORROWING ,ADMINISTRATION ,OPTIMAL SIZE ,MARKETING EFFORT ,PROFITS ,LOAN ,CREDIT ,ACCESS TO CREDIT ,DATA MINING ,EXPERT OPINION ,SENIOR ,RADIO ADVERTISING ,CONFIDENCE BOUNDS ,MATERIAL ,SALES ,CUSTOMER ,INVESTOR ,RADIO ,FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ,ADVERTISEMENTS ,INTEREST ,RESULTS ,JOB CREATION ,BUDGETING ,LOGISTICS ,LABOR FORCE ,BUSINESSES ,SAVINGS ,REVENUES ,ICT ,ENTREPRENEURIAL SKILLS ,SUPPORT PROGRAMS ,INTEREST RATE ,RECORD‐ KEEPING ,TRAINING COURSES - Abstract
A business plan competition is conducted to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. Applicants are surveyed shortly after they applied and one and two years after the competition. Follow-up surveys are used to construct measures of enterprise growth and baseline surveys and panel scores to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. A survey measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but the panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, there is no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.
- Published
- 2016