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Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how startup job seekers' search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that workers shifted their searches and applications away from less-established startups and toward more-established ones, even within the same individual over time. At the firm level, this shift was not offset by an influx of new job seekers. Less-established startups experienced a relative decline in the quantity and quality of applications, ultimately affecting their hiring. Our findings uncover a flight-to-safety channel in the labor market that may amplify the procyclical nature of entrepreneurial activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consistent with the empirical properties of the consumption data, I develop a model in which consumption and dividend growth follow regime-switching dynamics. I show that regime-shift risk is priced in the model. Regime-shift risk exhibits dominant influence on asset prices: It generates a high equity premium and also induces time-varying risk premiums. The model explains major business cycle-dependent asset market phenomena and, in particular, the stronger predictability of stock returns during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document a walk-down in gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections that is akin to that in sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. While the walk-down in earnings forecasts has been generally attributed to the strategic interplay between corporate managers and sell-side analysts, professional macro forecasters affiliated with the Federal Reserve are less susceptible to outside pressure. Our evidence shows that countercyclical variation in forecasting difficulty, due to asymmetry in the steepness of economic downturns relative to upturns, is relevant in explaining the walk-down in macro forecasts. Without rejecting the expectations game between managers and sell-side analysts, our article offers a more auspicious characterization of forecast walk-downs whereby such patterns can surface even without conditioning on strategic incentives for bias. An overarching implication is that research on the properties of sell-side analysts' forecasts should consider strategic incentives for bias interacted with information about the state of the economy and heterogeneity in the cyclical exposure of individual firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has impacted the sport industry across all contexts, including intercollegiate athletics. Specifically, research has found that the Collegiate Sport Addition Process (CSAP) to add or remove a sport for athletic departments in previous economic downturns must consider multiple factors. The current study builds on previous research by exploring the considerations of adding a sport through a buyer- seller interaction framework. Specifically, the current study explored whether sport governing bodies or coaching associations should attempt to sell their sport at the intercollegiate Conference level, rather than at the institution level. The current study used a survey to collect feedback from conference commissioners across the intercollegiate sport landscape. Through surveys and follow-up interviews, findings led to emergent themes of balance, viability, funding and revenue, and post-season opportunities as factors that conference personnel considered when deciding to add a sport. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on the signaling theory perspective, this study examines the effect of perceived country of origin on brand performance during economic contractions. The authors specify an econometric model linking brand market share to recession periods and analyze the interaction with brand origin perception. They test the model on four years of longitudinal data on consumer packaged goods brands combined with a self-administrated consumer questionnaire to infer consumers' perceptions about brands' origins. The authors find that economic contractions differentially affect brands with different country-of-origin perceptions. The results indicate that the market share of brands that customers most identify as domestic suffers more damage during contractions than brands they perceive as foreign. The main contribution of this article is in generating a better understanding of brands' resistance to economic contractions based on their perceived country of origin. Moreover, the authors provide strategic recommendations to brands based on their origin perception and the country's economic situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author examines the short-term labor market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (aka the Great Lockdown recession) in the United States. Findings show that the task content is an important predictor of job losses; jobs with a high non-routine cognitive content are especially well-protected, even if they are not teleworkable. Teleworkability matters more for low-paying jobs. The importance of task content, particularly for non-routine cognitive tasks, is strong even after controlling for demographics and for differential sector and location shocks, while effects persist in the medium run. Jobs subject to higher structural turnover rates were much more likely to be terminated, suggesting that easier-to-replace employees were at a particular disadvantage, even within sectors. At the same time, labor hoarding may occur for more valuable matches. Individuals in low-skilled jobs fared comparatively better in industries with a high share of high-skilled workers, suggesting complementarities across skill types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While recessions have many adverse consequences for individuals and organizations, we propose that they have positive implications for job satisfaction. We argue that during bad economic times, people will be less attuned to other possible jobs, and more likely to see their own jobs favorably. We find support for these predictions across three studies. Study 1 (n = 23,335) utilizes a large cross-sectional survey of American adults collected over four decades and finds that job satisfaction increases during recessions and declines during booms. Study 2 (n = 12,859) replicates this result using a large longitudinal survey of British adults and finds that job satisfaction rises and falls with the unemployment rate even within the same people. Finally, Study 3 (n = 512) uses an experimental design and finds that the relationship between economic conditions and job satisfaction is mediated by the reduced salience of alternative jobs. While scholars have long recognized that job satisfaction is affected by situational features inside organizations, our findings suggest that conditions outside the workplace can also influence how people think about and evaluate their jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes stressors experienced by Syrian mothers in Lebanon in 2020 and emphasizes the necessity of addressing their distinct needs. Through in-depth interviews, it identifies stressors linked to living conditions in Lebanon, the economic crisis, health care access, and the impact of the pandemic. The study recommends that social workers should utilize and enhance existing support systems. It also recommends social policies facilitating mobility for Syrians to reunite with their families and livelihood programs enabling families to prioritize their own financial stability. This comprehensive approach has the potential to alleviate the challenges faced by Syrian mothers in Lebanon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the German government’s long-held preference against EU-wide fiscal burden-sharing, a hallmark of the Euro crisis, its support for an EU-wide debt-instrument during the COVID-19 pandemic constitutes a dramatic policy U-turn. To make sense of the ‘Berlin puzzle’, we develop a theoretical mechanism that explores why an initially reluctant German government heeded to the call for transnational fiscal solidarity: First, to avoid a ‘common bad’ of a large-scale economic contraction, proposals for an EU-wide fiscal response became a political imperative. Second, the successful framing of the crisis as ‘nobody’s fault’ rendered the call for European solidarity as the dominant standard of legitimacy to which all governments subscribed. Third, governments whose preferences were not aligned with this standard faced mounting normative pressure and isolation. As a result, governments changed their positions, but not their preferences. We probe this mechanism by carrying out a process-tracing analysis of the German government’s fiscal policy U-turn in the crucial months preceding the adoption of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery plan in July 2020. The paper contributes to the growing literature on fiscal burdensharing in the EU by demonstrating when and how member states can change their stance on transnational fiscal burden-sharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the impact of the radical right political discourse on welfare chauvinistic attitudes over time. Using data from two rounds of the European Social Survey (2008/09 and 2016/17), the Comparative Political Data Set and the Manifesto Project for 17 European countries, our analyses show that radical right mobilization and the salience of political rhetoric framed on cultural diversity and immigration issues have a significant positive effect on welfare chauvinist attitudes. Although in the years after the Great Recession and the refugee crisis, welfare chauvinism remained fairly stable among the general European public, the influence of radical right mobilization and negative political discourse on welfare chauvinism has significantly increased. Furthermore, we find that when radical right parties become stronger and the political rhetoric regarding cultural diversity and immigration becomes more salient, differences in welfare chauvinist attitudes between people with different political affiliations become more polarized. These results contribute to a broader understanding of the mechanisms underlying welfare chauvinistic attitudes and mark the importance of the inclusion of political factors in studies on welfare chauvinism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre‐recession levels, in line with Friedman's theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rate recoveries are less complete. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In contrast, the extent of labour market tightening or output growth during a boom generally does not provide any information about the intensity of the subsequent recession. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction‐driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research delves into the underexplored area of how production network structures influence the severity of economic downturns, particularly during the last financial crisis. Utilizing the RSTAN database from the OECD, we meticulously derived critical measures from the input-output matrices for 61 economies. Our methodology entailed a panel analysis spanning from 2008 to 2010, which is a period marked by significant recessionary pressures. This analysis aimed to correlate economic performance with various production network metrics, taking into account control factors such as interest rates and the prevalence of service sectors. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between the density of production networks and economic resilience during the crisis, which remained consistent across multiple model specifications. Conversely, as anticipated, higher interest rates were linked to poorer economic performance, highlighting the critical interplay between monetary policy and economic outcomes during periods of financial instability. Given these insights, we propose a policy recommendation emphasizing the strategic enhancement of production network density as a potential buffer against economic downturns. This approach suggests that policymakers should consider the structural aspects of production networks in designing economic stability and growth strategies, thus potentially mitigating the impacts of future financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Democracies today remain in a potent and protracted recession, and they have retreated from the ideological struggle against autocracy. We can renew the world's democratic momentum through power, performance, and legitimacy. Democracies must generate economic prosperity and opportunity while containing corruption, crime, and abuses of power, to reinvigorate support for democracy across regions and generations. Liberal democracies cannot be weak or retreat; they must exert their power to safeguard free and fair elections, independent media, and the rule of law. Nowhere in the world where dictatorships repress rights, censor information, and propagate disinformation can democracy be secure. Every defense of democracy is a source of inspiration and instruction. We must get serious again about promoting the values, experiences, requirements, and institutions of democracy. And we must do so on the scale, with the scope and ease of access in many languages, required to save it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, food insecurity has been increasing globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, economic downturns and conflict and a number of other intersecting factors. Older adults residing in low- and middle-income countries are more vulnerable to food insecurity. While the impacts of food insecurity on physical health outcomes have been thoroughly researched, the effect on mental health outcomes remains under-researched, especially among older adults. Hence, this systematic review aims to investigate existing literature to assess how food insecurity impacts the mental health of older persons residing in LMICs. A systematic search of six databases and Google for studies was conducted. The search was limited to studies written in English and published between 2000 to the present. We identified 725 studies, out of which 40 studies were selected for a full-text review and 12 studies were included for a final analysis. The significant finding in all the included studies was that food insecurity is associated with the worsening mental health of older adults. We also found a complex interplay of factors such as gender, age, rural/urban and health conditions associated with the aggravation of several mental health outcomes. The findings of this study illuminate the need for improved food programs to improve food security and, consequently, mental health among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study employs an online experimental approach to explore why an appropriate message appeal that resonates with consumers is crucial during a recession, rather than reducing investments in marketing, such as advertising spending. Drawing upon congruity theory and the accessibility–diagnosticity framework, the results of this experimental study demonstrate an interaction effect between message appeals and the state of a recession on consumers’ booking intentions. Furthermore, this effect is mediated by perceived advertisement diagnosticity, but only in the context of a price discount appeal in advertisements during a recession. This research contributes to extending the existing literature by examining the dynamic relationship between message appeals and the state of a recession on consumers’ behavioral intentions, mediated by their perceived advertisement diagnosticity. This explanation plays a significant role in bridging the gap in the lack of theoretical reasoning regarding relationships beyond the conceptual threshold through empirical testing. Second, the results of this study suggest more effective and actionable propositions for marketing and advertising professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst economic downturn pressures, major countries emphasized the manufacturing industry and increased research and development (R&D) investments to realize innovation in manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises are the main performers of R&D investments, so it is imperative for policymakers to accurately evaluate the policy effect of different industrial tendency and policy intensity on growth. The impact of the overall R&D expenditure on macroeconomy or the effectiveness of enterprises' R&D investment on business profit has been reported in a great deal of literature, but so far, the impacts of enterprises' R&D have little been experimented at the macro level and industrial level. This paper improves the knowledge production function and structured a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the multi-dimensional macroeconomic impact of enterprises' R&D investment. The results show that enterprises' R&D investment has a significant role in promoting economic output, residents' welfare, price control, and international trade, and its impact is declining over time. The impacts of enterprises' R&D on different industries are heterogeneous; industries with lower knowledge capital are more sensitive to R&D investment. These findings contribute to the effectiveness of R&D policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam experienced drastic political and economic disruptions in 2023. The anti-corruption campaign reached the very top level of government. Ongoing prosecutions and new arrests targeted the business sector. Vietnam successfully navigated an unprecedented leadership change and restored stability to the political system, emboldening the public security forces in the process. International relations were marked by successful upgrades of ties to both the US and China. However, a shaky domestic capital market, shrinking global demand, and the side effects of anti-corruption drives resulted in a significant economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines whether and how economic slowdowns lead to military conflict. Although a weak economy (as reflected, for example, by high inflation and unemployment rates) has often been regarded as a cause of interstate conflict, this study proposes that worse economy, that is, a negative trend of growth rates, tends to make political leaders face domestic challenge from dissatisfied public and look for diversionary targets. In addition, it hypothesizes that economically troubled states will target their junior trade partners, which are less likely to retaliate harshly. The results, based on an analysis of directed dyads from 1950 to 2010, show that a state is more likely to initiate military conflict when economic growth slows. When the initiator is an autocracy and the target is a democracy, this aggression is likely directed toward a vulnerable trade partner. However, a potential initiator's political unrest does not increase the tendency to target a junior economic partner. These findings suggest that an autocracy's slowing economy can threaten a politically dissimilar and economically dependent state, and that political and economic unrest have different effects on diversionary conflict as these factors interact with the domestic and international environments. Given our globalized economy and the current erosion of democracy worldwide, we could experience more frequent conflicts between economically troubled autocracies and their junior trade partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since Estonia joined the European Union in 2004, there has been a steady growth in transnational mobility for work or study among Estonian young adults, a phenomenon further boosted by the economic recession of 2008–09. This article analyses the factors that have influenced or would potentially influence their return to Estonia, following an online survey of over 2,000 participants from Estonia aged 20–35 years with a recent experience of living abroad. By deploying an analysis of logistic regression, we developed two models concerning the 'actual return factors' (comparing the stayers with those who have returned) and the 'aspirational return factors' (how the migrants imagine their future location). Some of the highlights of our results demonstrate that the likelihood of return migration is significantly lower for those whose prime reasons for leaving Estonia were related to living conditions and salary abroad. The extent of people's ties and connections to Estonia does not play a significant role in actually returning to Estonia. However, these connections do play a role, albeit limited, in envisioning one's future in Estonia. The outcomes of our analysis suggest that diaspora policies cannot be implemented without addressing the sending country's internal sociopolitical situation, which influences the living conditions and economic opportunities of its citizens, scrutinized particularly carefully by those who have left the country before deciding whether or not to return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumen: Las respuestas del mercado de trabajo en anteriores recesiones económicas han sido contradictorias y paradójicas, con reacciones procíclicas y anticíclicas según los países. A falta de redes de protección social, como el seguro de desempleo, las tasas de ocupación anticíclicas pueden evidenciar dificultades económicas, más que oportunidades de ocupación productiva. Tras cotejar los datos de ocupación‐desocupación de los hogares de la India con las recomendaciones de la 19.a Conferencia Internacional de Estadísticos del Trabajo sobre la subutilización de la fuerza de trabajo, en este artículo se critican las deficiencias y se aboga por revisar los métodos de recopilación de datos para fundamentar mejor las políticas del mercado laboral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed-integer convex representable (MICP-R) sets are those sets that can be represented exactly through a mixed-integer convex programming formulation. Following up on recent work by Lubin et al. (in: Eisenbrand (ed) Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization - 19th International Conference, Springer, Waterloo), (Math. Oper. Res. 47:720-749, 2022) we investigate structural geometric properties of MICP-R sets, which strongly differentiate them from the class of mixed-integer linear representable (MILP-R) sets. First, we provide an example of an MICP-R set which is the countably infinite union of convex sets with countably infinitely many different recession cones. This is in sharp contrast with MILP-R sets which are (countable) unions of polyhedra that share the same recession cone. Second, we provide an example of an MICP-R set which is the countably infinite union of polytopes all of which have different shapes (no pair is combinatorially equivalent, which implies they are not affine transformations of each other). Again, this is in sharp contrast with MILP-R sets which are (countable) unions of polyhedra that are all translations of a finite subset of themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Social change and the aging process are racially bifurcated in the United States, where Black and White populations have long lived in divergent social worlds. This study examines the cohort patterns and life-course trajectories of Black and White homicide involvement over the past four decades. Data and Methods: The study uses data from the Supplemental Homicide Reports and Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction (APC-I) models to analyze race-specific trends of (alleged) homicide offending and victimization between 1976 and 2018 in the U.S. Results: Results reveal similar patterns in the age, period, and cohort effects on Black and White homicide involvement. However, while the shapes of these trajectories are comparable, the volatility in cohort effects on homicide is much more accentuated for Black cohorts than White cohorts. We also find racial differences for cohorts born after 1990, with a downward cohort pattern among the White group but a flat cohort trend among the Black group. Conclusions: Findings suggest that Black cohorts' homicide involvement is more susceptible than White cohorts' to the influence of external social changes (e.g., economic downturn, the crack epidemic). In addition, an increasing racial gap between Black and White populations is found among the recent birth cohorts. Possible mechanisms are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess and compare the utilization of preventive and other health services and the cost or availability in different regions of Europe, before and during the economic crisis. The data used in the study were obtained from Wave 8 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2019/2020) and Wave 1 data (2004/5), with a sample size of 46,106 individuals aged ≥50 across 27 countries, adjusted to represent a population of N = 180,886,962. Composite scores were derived for preventive health services utilization (PHSU), health care services utilization (HCSU), and lack of accessibility/availability in health care services (LAAHCS). Southern countries had lower utilization of preventive services and higher utilization of other health services compared to northern countries, with a significant lack of convergence. Moreover, the utilization of preventive health services decreased, whereas the utilization of secondary care services increased during the austerity period. Southern European countries had a significantly higher prevalence of lack of accessibility. An increase in the frequency of lack of accessibility/availability in health care services was observed from 2004/5 to 2019/20. In conclusion, our findings suggest that health inequalities increase during crisis periods. Therefore, policy interventions could prioritize accessibility and expand health coverage and prevention services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to highlight the challenges for nonprofits marketing considering the economic slowdown and service failure due the COVID-19 pandemic. This conceptual study addresses how the lack of understanding of digital technologies among nonprofit organizations (NPOs) has further aggravated the situation, raising concerns about their survival. At the same time, the crisis always provides an opportunity to innovate, and the same is debated in this article. The NPOs that have shown reluctance towards digital technologies upgraded themselves to utilize such technologies for their survival. Further, they have the opportunity to rework their organizational model to attract funds for restoring their operations in the post-pandemic era. But the NPOs have a complex environment as they have two different sets of market segments to cater to—donors and clients. The significance of the article is that it provides marketing strategies for NPOs to advertise their past work to attract donors or funders, thereby ensuring financial viability along with social commitments towards society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we study the relevance of green finance from a portfolio and a network perspective. The estimates are derived from a regularized graphical model, which allows us to deal with two important issues. First, we refer to the curse of dimensionality, as we focus on a relatively large set of companies. Second, we explicitly take into account the heavy‐tailed distributions of financial time series, which reflect the impact of crises and recessions. Focusing on a time interval spanning across well‐known tail events, from the US subprime crisis to the recent outbreak of the COVID‐19 pandemic, we show that the selected green stocks offer a relevant contribution to the minimization of the overall portfolio risk. Moreover, they outperform the gray assets in terms of risk, profitability, and risk‐adjusted return in a statistically significant way. These findings are consistent with the estimates obtained from the network analysis. Indeed, the gray stocks exhibit a greater connection within the dynamic networks and, then, are more exposed to the risk of a greater propagation of negative spillover effects during stressed periods. Interestingly, the relevance of the green stocks increases when moving from the standard Gaussian to the leptokurtic setting. The policy implications suggested by these results induce policymakers to undertake synergistic interventions with private finance aimed at supporting a green economy and environmentally responsible companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to assess the effect of job insecurity, customer incivility and work–life imbalance on Lebanese bank employee workplace well-being (EWW), while investigating the moderating role that positive and negative affect might have. Design/methodology/approach: Quantitative data was collected from 202 respondents and analyzed using structural equation modeling system through IBM SPSS and AMOS. Findings: Results revealed that each of the independent variables has a negative, statistically significant effect on Lebanese bank EWW. The positive affect and the negative one are shown to have a moderating effect that lessens and boosts, respectively, these negative effects. Theoretical implications: The study adds to the literature on EWW while highlighting the high-power distance and collectivist society that the research took place in. Research limitations/implications: Limitations include the sample size that was hoped to be larger, in addition to the self-reporting issue and what it entails in the data collection process. Practical implications: The study has many practical implications, including the validation of a questionnaire in a developing Arab country, hence providing a reliable tool for researchers. HR specialists should lean toward applicants with positive affect, ensuring that their workplace is occupied by members with enhanced resilience. Furthermore, employers should support their employees' professional growth, thus, boosting their employability during turmoil and consequently making them less vulnerable in times of economic recession. Originality/value: The study's unique context, depicted in the harsh economic and financial crisis, makes the findings on EWW of a high value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examined how conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines specifically relate to symptoms of fear of COVID-19 in a sample of four South American countries. A total of 1785 people from Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru participated, responding to a sociodemographic survey, the Fear of COVID-19 scale (FCV-19 S) and the Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale-COVID-19 (VCBS-COVID-19). Network analysis identified the most important symptoms of fear and conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines (nodes) and the associations between them (edges). In addition, the robustness of the network of these indicators of centrality and the possible differences in the structure and connectivity of the networks between the four countries were evaluated. The results suggest that the nodes with the highest centrality were items 2 and 5 of the FCV-19 S and item 2 of the VCBS-COVID-19. Likewise, item 6 is the belief that most predicts conspiracy beliefs about vaccines against COVID-19; while item 6 was the symptom that most predicts fear of COVID-19. The findings strongly support cross-cultural similarities in the networks across the four countries rather than differences. Although it was expected that a higher presence of symptoms of fear of COVID-19 may lead people to compensate for their fear by believing in conspiratorial ideas about vaccines and, consequently, rejecting the COVID-19 vaccine, the results do not clearly show this relationship. This could lead other researchers to generate evidence to explain the differences between Latin American countries and countries in other contexts in terms of vaccination rates. This evidence could be useful to develop policies favoring vaccination against COVID-19 that are more contextualized to the Latin American region, characterized by social instability and economic recession during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the factors driving Syrian refugees into the informal labor market in Türkiye despite the existence of regulations and programs to facilitate their integration into the formal labor market. Design/methodology/approach: This study presents results from a literature review of secondary sources and primary data collection through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and Syrian refugees. Findings: The study shows that the implementation of policies and programs to boost formal employment among refugees has yielded limited results. Many refugees continue to operate within the informal economy. This informality is due to various socio-economic challenges, including anti-refugee sentiments, geographical restrictions and economic crises. The 2023 twin earthquakes have further exacerbated the vulnerable situation of refugees, intensifying the difficulty of achieving self-reliance. Research limitations/implications: The study's drawbacks include a small sample size. This implies that the sample is not representative; therefore, results may lack generalizability. Practical implications: The study's findings could stimulate greater engagement in public policy, facilitate the management of public perceptions regarding refugees and provide support to the private sector, all to enhance the integration of Syrian refugees into the formal labor market. Originality/value: This study addresses crucial areas previously unexplored, including the impact of economic and natural disaster crises on the labor market integration of refugees. To the best of the author's knowledge, by investigating these factors for the first time, this study offers novel insights into their influence on refugees' labor market integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, a novel fuzzy FEM (Finite Elements Method) numerical solution describing the recession flow in unconfined aquifers is proposed. In general, recession flow and drainage problems can be described by the nonlinear Boussinesq equation, while the introduced hydraulic parameters (Conductivity K and Porosity S) present significant uncertainties for various reasons (e.g., spatial distribution, human errors, etc.). Considering the general lack of in situ measurements for these parameters as well as the certain spatial variability that they present in field scales, a fuzzy approach was adopted to include the problem uncertainties and cover the disadvantage of ground truth missing data. The overall problem is encountered with a new approximate fuzzy FEM numerical solution, leading to a system of crisp boundary value problems. To prove the validity and efficiency of the new fuzzy FEM, a comparative analysis between the proposed approach and other well-known and tested approximations was carried out. According to the results, the proposed FEM numerical solution agrees with Karadinumerical method for the crisp case and is in close agreement with the original analytical solution proposed by Boussinesq in 1904 with the absolute reduced error to be 4.6‰. Additionally, the possibility theory is applied, enabling the engineers and designers of irrigation, drainage, and water resources projects to gain knowledge of hydraulic properties (e.g., water level, outflow volume) and make the right decisions for rational and productive engineering studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses panel data for Canada from 1976 to 2018, across 10 provinces, to reassess the relationship between mortality rates and economic fluctuations. The key contribution of our paper lies in examining the extent to which this relationship is driven by the employment rate (extensive margin) versus average hours worked (intensive margin). We find evidence of procyclical mortality for females at the aggregate level; aggregate male mortality remains largely unaffected by economic fluctuations. Our findings also reveal temporal heterogeneity, as the extensive margin becomes the driving force for female mortality rates during the more recent period (1990 onwards). These findings remain robust when accounting for personal income and pollution. Finally, we find some support for a procyclical relationship for individuals in the working age groups, while mortality exhibits a countercyclical pattern for children (age 0 to 14) and the elderly (age 65 and above). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that the slope of the sovereign yield curve predicts future economic activity not only through its level but also through its changes (or differences) over time. Our results with US data show that the additional inclusion of the changes of the yield slope in the traditional regressions significantly increases the explanatory power of the yield curve. Through the yield slope decomposition, we find that positive changes in both the risk‐neutral spread and the term premium increase the likelihood of recession in the next 3 or 12 months. Estimated linear equations that directly forecast economic activity confirm the predictive power of both components in the medium run. These predictive equations also identify the term premium as the relevant component of yield slope changes for medium‐run (3–12 months) forecasts. Our out‐of‐sample exercises show that the empirical models including both the level and the differences of the slope perform better than the models including only the yield slope level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID 19 pandemic has exposed businesses to high uncertainty through a number of channels. While the magnitude of this economic disruption is much larger than the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, there are pertinent learnings from the latter which can accelerate the recovery envisaged after the current crisis. To identify that, in this paper, we analyse the determinants of firms' ability to maintain positive performance during an unexpected downturn. We do this by using a multinomial logit analysis on Italian automotive industry firm-level data covering the years before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The most significant results are that innovation and intangible assets play a key role in shaping the degree of firm ability to face external shocks. Our findings provide insights into solutions that have practical importance for companies pertaining to a mature industry like automotive. Learning from the economic downturn faced in 2008–2009, which we highlight in this study, can act as the first step into a green and sustainable recovery desired in the aftermath of the COVID 19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In times of economic crisis, many employers in liberal labor markets reduce their employees' working hours, which leads to an increase in the incidence of involuntary part-time work. We analyze the effectiveness of working time regulation in preventing such an increase during downswings. For this we look at the case of Germany, where hours adjustments are highly restricted by law. Using a state-level panel regression approach, we find that the incidence of involuntary part-time work is positively associated with the unemployment rate but that the association is much weaker than in the US and in the UK. Transition probabilities between employment states over the cycle suggest two particular underlying mechanisms: First, already employed workers are more likely to want a full-time position in economic downturns ("added hours effect"). Second, job seekers make concessions with regards to their desired hours when labor market conditions are bad ("reservation hours effect"). We are the first to document these margins of cyclical hours adjustments which are fundamentally different from those in less regulated labor markets, where the cyclicality of involuntary part-time work is predominantly driven by hours changes at the same employer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global economic downturns and multiple extreme events threaten Vietnam's economy, leading to a surge in stock market risk and significant spillovers. This study investigates market risk spillovers and explores the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk across 24 sectors in Vietnam from 2012 to 2022. We use the value-at-risk (VaR) technique and a vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate market risks and their spillovers across Vietnamese sectors. We then examine the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) model. Our results confirm that Vietnam's market risk increases rapidly in response to extreme events. Additionally, market risks exhibit substantial inter-connectedness across the Vietnamese sectors. The Building Materials, Technology, and Securities sectors are primary risk transmitters, whereas the Minerals, Development Investment, and Education sectors are major risk absorbers. Our results also confirm that market risk responds asymmetrically to changes in interest rates, exchange rates (USD/VND), trade openness, financial development, and economic growth in the short and long run. Minerals, Oil & Gas, and Rubber are the sectors that are most affected by macroeconomic indicators in the long run. Based on these important findings, implications focused on limiting market risks and their spillovers, along with sustainable investing, have emerged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and quantile regression analyses to examine the determinants of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) grades based on financial and non-financial characteristics of Korean companies amidst the global economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate whether different determinants exist for varying levels of ESG grades (lower, middle, and higher groups). Analyzing cross-sectional data from 660 Korean companies, we find that both financial and non-financial characteristics significantly impacted ESG grades during the pandemic. Key determinants include firm value, size, and cash liquidity in financial characteristics, while firm age and industry type are vital non-financial determinants. Furthermore, the results highlight distinctions among ESG sub-dimensions, revealing that financial attributes predominantly influence environmental grades, whereas both financial and non-financial aspects shape social and governance grades. The findings elucidate ESG grade determinants and their differential relationships with various company characteristics during the challenging COVID-19 period in Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do new products launched during a recession perform better? Does the severity of the recession matter? Are products more successful when launched earlier or later in a recession? These are all questions of managerial importance that as yet remain unanswered in the extant marketing literature. The authors analyze two datasets: 1) 8,981 product launches in 20 United Kingdom fast-moving consumer goods categories over 18 years and 2) 1,071 product launches in the United States automotive market over 63 years. The results reveal products launched (a) during a recession and (b) later rather than earlier in the recession survive longer, while more severe recessions are associated with shorter survival. The same findings emerge for the dependent variables of sales and market share. This paper thus enriches marketing theory on recessions by conceptualizing and quantifying timing effects on new product launch success. For managers, the results demonstrate the benefits of countercyclical launching of new products during recessions and of marketing proactively in such economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid‐19 exposed the whole world to numerous challenges ranging from health to economic recession. Nevertheless, it also impeded gambling activities. Here, we consider the relationship between Covid‐19 support payment and gambling. Gambling is considered leisure for many game players but leads to multiple social and economic harms. This has led to a growing body of literature examining the factors that influence gambling. This paper contributes to this strand of the literature by utilizing the ordinary least square and instrumental variable approach to investigate if Covid‐19 support payment is a driver of gambling. We utilize a wide range of gambling measures and different forms of Covid‐19 support payment. Our findings show that Covid‐19 support payment is positively associated with gambling. Our results also suggest a stronger effect for male gamblers and online gamblers compared to female gamblers and gamblers who gambled at the venue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a big challenge of our time. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, research on how financial crises affect climate change is limited. We empirically use the local projection method to empirically study the impact of past financial crises on climate change vulnerability and resilience indices. Using a dataset covering 178 countries over the period 1995–2019, we observe that resilience to climate change shocks has been increasing and that advanced economies are the least vulnerable. Our econometric results suggest that financial crises (particularly systematic banking ones) tend to lead to a short-run deterioration in a country's resilience to climate change. This effect is more pronounced in developing economies. In downturns, if an economy is hit by a financial crisis, vulnerability to climate change increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 21st century, there have already been a series of economic downturns, particularly the Subprime Crisis 2007–2009 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. All those events triggered changes in productivity, economic performance and structure. The main objective of this study is to identify the regions left behind in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and to analyse the structural and productivity changes taking place within them. In our analysis, we aim to verify the research hypothesis that all left-behind regions in CEE have similar economic structures with a high share of agriculture. The research period covers the years from 2010 until 2020 using data from the Eurostat database. In the first phase of our analysis, we analysed employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and productivity data for 11 CEE countries. Then, we analysed the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics at level 3 (NUTS3) regions, and Poland, which is a NUTS2 region. Left-behind regions are defined as those with low productivity and low growth rates. We provide a detailed analysis of the best and worst performing regions in terms of productivity for each country using productivity data and shift-share decomposition of productivity growth rate. Left-behind regions for each CEE country have been identified, and these are BG333, BG342, CZ080, EE004, HR023, HU332, LT027, LV005, PL72, RO216, RO312, SI032, SI035, SI038 and SK032. In our analysis, our hypothesis analysing the relationship between agriculture share in total employment and the productivity level of the region was not confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the factors influencing the capital structure of 271 non-financial firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) over a broad period from 1995 to 2021, encompassing both stable and crisis conditions. Employing a dynamic panel data model and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation, we address the endogeneity issue introduced by the inclusion of lagged dependent variables. Our research integrates firm-specific internal factors with macroeconomic external variables to provide a comprehensive understanding of the influence of varying economic environments on capital structure. Our study suggests that in times of economic stability, the capital structure decisions of a firm are more influenced by internal factors such as profitability. However, in periods of economic downturns, it is the external macroeconomic market conditions that tend to have a greater impact on these decisions. It is also noteworthy that both book leverage (BL) and market leverage (ML) exhibit quicker adjustments during stable periods as opposed to periods of crisis. This indicates a higher agility of firms in adapting their capital structures in stable, normal conditions. Our findings contribute to the existing literature by offering a holistic view of capital structure determinants in Korean firms. They underscore the necessity of adaptable financial strategies that account for both internal dynamics and external economic conditions. This study fills a gap in current research, presenting new insights into the dynamics of capital structure in Korean firms and suggesting a multifaceted approach to understanding capital structure in diverse economic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important social development goal is to broaden access, especially equality of access, to arts, culture and heritage. This paper used large, national‐level data sets to investigate the equality of access to cultural and creative goods and services in South Africa by calculating an expenditure Gini coefficient for cultural and creative industries. Results showed that the Gini coefficient of expenditure for the cultural and creative industries was higher than for spending overall and rose during the 2009 financial crisis. From 2011 to 2021, cultural expenditure inequality trended upwards, but during the pandemic, it declined, perhaps as a result of an expansion of online access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the spread of COVID-19, economic damages are challenging for governments and people's livelihood besides its dangerous and negative impact on humanity's health, which can be led to death. Various health guidelines have been proposed to tackle the virus outbreak including quarantine, restriction rules to imports, exports, migrations, and tourist arrival that were affected by economic depression. Providing an approach to predict the economic situation has a highlighted role in managing crisis when a country faces a problem such as a disease epidemic. We propose an intelligent algorithm to predict the economic situation that utilizes neural networks (NNs) to satisfy the aim. Our work estimates correlation coefficient based on the spearman method between gross domestic product rate (GDPR) and other economic statistics to find effective parameters on growing up and falling GDPR and also determined the NNs' inputs. We study the reported economic and disease statistics in Germany, India, Australia, and Thailand countries to evaluate the algorithm's efficiency in predicting economic situation. The experimental results demonstrate the prediction accuracy of approximately 96% and 89% for one and more months ahead, respectively. Our method can help governments to present efficient policies for preventing economic damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML), a transformational technology, has been successfully applied to forecasting events down the road. This paper demonstrates that supervised ML techniques can be used in recession and stock market crash (more than 20% drawdown) forecasting. After learning from strictly past monthly data, ML algorithms detected the Covid-19 recession by December 2019, six months before the official NBER announcement. Moreover, ML algorithms foresaw the March 2020 S&P500 crash two months before it happened. The current labor market and housing are harbingers of a future U.S. recession (in 3 months). Financial factors have a bigger role to play in stock market crashes than economic factors. The labor market appears as a top-two feature in predicting both recessions and crashes. ML algorithms detect that the U.S. exited recession before December 2020, even though the official NBER announcement has not yet been made. They also do not anticipate a U.S. stock market crash before March 2021. ML methods have three times higher false discovery rates of recessions compared to crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dutch disease literature reveals several gaps between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions. To bridge such gaps, I develop a model that accounts for uneven spillovers of technological progress from the resource sector to other domestic sectors. I then employ a dynamic panel approach to align the theory with the data. I find that the real exchange rate appreciation resulting from a resource boom (i.e., the spending channel) is more pronounced in resource-poor countries than in resource-rich countries. Additionally, the resource movement channel exhibits differences between resource-rich and resource-poor countries. In resource-rich countries, a resource boom reduces the growth rate in the manufacturing sector more than in the service sector, leading to a decrease in relative sectoral output and a slowdown in economic growth. On the other hand, in resource-poor countries, a resource boom accelerates the growth of the manufacturing sector and decelerates the growth of the service sector, resulting in an increase in relative sectoral output and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long‐term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]