Search

The study was undertaken to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1980 to 2017 using the VECM and Granger causality tests. Data was collected from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank and regressed using the unit root test of Augmented Dickey Fuller to determine the stationarity of the individual variables. Johansen cointegration technique was used to examine the cointegration relationship between the variables. The results show that there exists a positive long-run relationship between FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) and a negative long-run relationship between trade openness and GDP. Thus, to capture the short-run effects, the vector error correction model was estimated. Finally, Granger causality test was employed to investigate the causality between them. There was a unidirectional relationship between the variables. From the findings, to revamp the Nigerian economy, the government should implement quality conflict management institutions, ensure export oriented trade policies, and invest more in infrastructural developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a recession in the global economy since its onset at the end of 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report issued in October 2021, the global real GDP growth rate for 2019 was 2.9, then declined and reached -3. The BRICS organisation is a major player in the global economy, and Algeria's application to join it was recently rejected, Therefore, this study aims to discuss the impact of the pandemic on the real GDP of these countries by examining the variables during the pandemic period and the relationship between them, as the study concluded that it had a negative impact as a consequence of the lockdown decision more than being affected by the percentage of deaths from Covid-19 by relying on annual real GDP data and the annual incidence and mortality rate per million population for the countries under study during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike the linear model of economic development, which is based on taking resources from nature, turning them into a finished product and using that product as the final stage of the life cycle of resources, without taking into account the degree of pollution they cause, there is a so-called circular model. The circular model of the economy is an alternative to the linear model. This means that with the circular model, the use of the finished product does not represent the last phase of the life cycle of the resource, but that used product, through the application of various processes, serves as a resource in further production. The main goal of the circular economic model is to reduce waste and pollution, but also to increase the productivity of resources. Longer use of products, machines, and other fixed assets results in higher productivity of the resources that make up their basic input. One of the main goals of the circular economy is the elimination or at least reduction of pollution, and one of the biggest pollutants is the excessive emission of carbon dioxide, whose chemical formula is 〖CO〗2. For this reason, the authors of this research recognized this area as crucial for further economic development. By applying various processes and procedures in developed countries, there was a decrease in the amount of 〖CO〗2emissions, while at the same time there was no decrease in economic activities and production in the economies of those countries, but quite the opposite, at the same time there was an increase in the gross national product (GDP). Serbia should use these countries as an example and, using the good practice of developed countries, start as soon as possible with a more extensive transition from a linear to a circular model of economic development, i.e. bring a series of measures, procedures, laws as soon as possible in order to reduce the emission of 〖CO〗2. In accordance with this, the logical conclusion would be that the scientific goal of this research work is to identify the role of reducing 〖CO〗2 emissions as an important potential for the transition from a linear to a circular model of economic development, without jeopardizing the level of real GDP.

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998–2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth.

Inflation targeting is a key component of monetary policy for most countries around the world, as the main task of central banks is the pursuit of price stability. Maintaining a certain target rate of inflation turns out to be a difficult task in the conditions of numerous external shocks and the relatively quick transition from unconventional to conventional monetary policy. The European Central Bank, as well as the Fed and other central banks, initiate increases in their key interest rates in response to resource price dynamics in global markets. The observed rise in the general price level has its impact on interest rates, which is projected on macroeconomic activity, incl. the level of domestic investment, household consumption, real GDP and other key variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995-2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998-2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2020 using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) methodology. The study employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests to determine the integration order of the variables and Bounds testing to confirm the existence of long run cointegration relationships between each variable. The results indicate that oil shocks influence food prices through several mechanisms. Firstly, the cost of energy increases due to the rise in oil prices, affecting the agricultural commodity market, including farm equipment, food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. Secondly, the demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels affects food availability and thus food prices. Thirdly, as an oil-based economy, the oil price shock affects food prices through its impact on government spending, which affects aggregate demand and liquidity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should adopt appropriate policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on food prices, including investing in renewable energy sources, diversifying its economy, and improving food production and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, implementing appropriate fiscal policies to ensure sufficient budget allocation for food support programs is crucial. However, Investing in groundwater exploration can contribute significantly to the development of Saudi agriculture and to gradually achieving food self-sufficiency.

Copyright of Global Journal of Economics & Business is the property of Refaad for Studies, Research & Development and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks' asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers' financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks' asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become a big source of non-debt funding in the world economy over the past 20 years. The goal of this study is to look at what makes Brazil and India attract FDI. The goal of this study is to figure out the most important reasons why FDI into India and Brazil keeps going up. The most important factors that affect FDI imports in Brazil and India are found using panel data regression analysis. The panel unit-root test, the Fisher Johansen test of cointegration, the panel vector error correction model, and the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model has all been used to look at the data. In this study, FDI flows are considered as a function of India and Brazil's relative consumer price index, gross domestic product, trade openness, human capital and population. The study shows that the size of the market and the number of people in a country have the biggest positive effects on drawing FDI. Inflation and trade openness, on the other hand, have little to do with attracting FDI to these two countries. Real GDP is used to measure the size of the market, and it is a major positive predictor of FDI. This means that most investment in these countries is driven by a desire to get into the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty shock on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 33 developed and emerging economies using the Global Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework that allows us to capture the transmission of global shocks while simultaneously accounting for distinct characteristics of individual countries. Utilizing quarterly data over the period of 1980Q1 to 2019Q2, we show that, in general, oil price uncertainty shock has a statistically significant negative impact on GDP for 28 out of the 33 countries, but with varying magnitude and persistence. Overall though, we find the adverse effect on real GDP to be relatively stronger for the developed group of countries than the emerging ones. Hence, our results suggest that policymakers must be ready to undertake expansionary policies (of varying order) in the wake of an oil price uncertainty shock to prevent deep recessions, except in the cases of Norway, Philippines and Saudi Arabia, for which output tends to increase in a statistically significant manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of firm growth is increasingly relevant to providers of capital in periods of economic uncertainty. The current study employs univariate and multivariate analyses to assess the impact of real GDP and the dividend payout ratio on earnings growth of JSE-listed firms. The findings reveal that there is no relationship between these hypothesised predictors of earnings growth, despite contrasting results of previous studies. Through the inclusion of real GDP in models that are established in the research, the study contributes to the literature of macroeconomic variables as lead indicators of firms' earnings growth potential. This research also extends prior research on the impact of dividend payout ratio on future earnings growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to show an econometric calibration through a model of simultaneous equations, using a sample made up of 231 monthly observations for the equations of: real GDP, and Credit from the Financial System in the Private Sector; between the periods of September 2003 and June 2023; that allows us to highlight the codependency of the variables mentioned above, through the use of other variables such as: monetary policy reference rate, liquidity of the financial system, CPI for food and energy, market capitalization, placement of corporate bonds, exports of copper and privatization of the operations of the Central Government. The econometric results show that there are consistent estimators for the first equation (of real GDP) at 95 percent confidence, taking into account the level of significance of the possible autocorrelation of the errors thanks to the applied tests. However, it does not turn out to be the same case for the second equation (related to credit), since these tests reveal the existence of a positive serial correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia is the property of Wydawnictwo SGGW and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The existing wage imbalances, low rates of income growth, and their high differentiation have a negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia, which determines the relevance of this study. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of economic growth rates in Russia on the dynamics of per capita income of the population and inequality in its distribution. Methods. Methods of analysis, synthesis, and comparison were used. The main method of research is the method of statistical analysis based on the requirements of an objective and comprehensive analysis of the income of the population. Results and conclusions. Statistical data for the period from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed, showing the growth in the increasing inequality in the distribution of monetary incomes of the population by the amount of per capita monetary income in the country as a whole for the analyzed period. The relationship between the rates of economic growth and the level of differentiation of the population by income is statistically determined. The reasons for this process in Russia are highlighted. After analyzing the degree of differentiation by a set of indicators, among which the main ones were the fund ratio and the Gini coefficient, it was found that economic growth alone does not solve the problem of economic inequality. During the analyzed period, high rates of economic growth in Russia were accompanied by increased differentiation of the population by income, which has its justification. It was also revealed that the real income of the population grows when the economic growth rate, expressed in real GDP growth, exceeds three percent. At the same time, a more tangible improvement in the financial situation of the population is observed at real GDP growth rates of over five percent.

This study examines the role of the global financial cycle (GFCy) in the propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States to other national economies using a large‐scale global vector autoregressive model of 33 countries. Although the dominant role of US uncertainty over global economic dynamics is established, the findings highlight the moderating role of the GFCy in the spillover effects of uncertainty shocks. The US uncertainty shocks, compared with own‐domestic uncertainty shocks, are found to have a more prominent negative impact on output during stressed market conditions, implied by low values of the GFCy, while the impact turns largely insignificant during high GFCy states. The findings provide evidence in favour of a US uncertainty spillover multiplier, suggesting that the design of monetary policy as a response to US uncertainty needs to be contingent on the state of the integrated global financial markets, captured by the GFCy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of trade, that is exports and imports, on economic growth, represented through real GDP and provides policy recommendations. For this purpose, time-series data from 1959 to 2019 collected in Ghana is used, where the export driven growth model is stressed on, and the structural adjustment policy is considered a success. We have conducted two types of computations in order to better discern the data: three separate univariate analyses and thereafter a VAR and VECM. According to our analysis, the results from the univariate time-series indicate that the future values of GDP could, to a limited degree, be predicted by their past values. However, the same cannot be concluded for exports and imports that had badly fitting models, violating normality in the residuals requirements and suffering from autocorrelation. A multivariate analysis was thus used to better understand the relationship between exports, imports and real GDP. A VAR was utilised, subsequently leading to the application of the VECM due to there being cointegration. The results from multivariate analysis indicated that GDP was negatively dependent on its previous value when the lagged values were jointly taken into consideration. Unlike the univariate analysis, the VAR model observes normality, homoscedasticity and no serial autocorrelation. The cointegration test establishes a relationship between Real GDP, exports and imports, with results being significant at 5% level. The test shows that imports have a negative long-run impact on GDP and exports have a positive impact on GDP. The granger causality test shows two things - first, we can predict the value of Real GDP based on the value of exports and second, we can predict the value of imports based on the value of exports. Further, when we conduct VECM analysis, we observe the speed of adjustment for Real GDP to be -28%, which indicates that our model will recover from shocks pretty soon. Thus, Ghana needs to take advantage of its natural resources and train its labour force to develop local production capacity. Export diversification is crucial, and incorporating small enterprises that are drivers in the economy can be used to reduce a reliance on imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research purpose. The purpose of this paper is to examine the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in a banking system with excess liquidity. More specifically, it aims to examine how the interest rates of the central bank bills and inflation rate affect total lending and the overall economic activity in the country. For this purpose, the analysis is based on the case of the Republic of North Macedonia, whose banking system has exhibited excess liquidity in the past decade.

The article provides a comparative assessment of the socio-economic development results of 12 post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic countries) in the period from 1992 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of real GDP and GDP per capita, it is concluded that the most successful were some countries of Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) and Armenia. It is noted that in terms of economic development, significant convergence with Russian indicators has been achieved by Kazakhstan and Belarus. The successful economic dynamics was due to the active role of the state, the regulation of exchange rate dynamics and the achievement of a relatively high rate of investments to GDP at certain stages of economic development. On the whole, the problem of high inflation, which was relevant in the 1990s, has been overcome. Social problems of poverty and inequality persist in individual countries, high dependence on external factors of economic dynamics, instability of the exchange rate dynamics and primitivization of the economy still remain as important problems in the region. It is emphasized that the factors of economic growth that operated in the post-Soviet countries during the period under review are coming to an end, which requires a search for a new economic model.

Purpose. This study aims to measure and assess the impact of foreign capital flows, including foreign direct investment, external loans, foreign aid, and remittances from migrants, as independent variables on real GDP as a dependent variable in Algeria during the period 1990–2021 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series regression model. Results. The study found the existence of a long-term relationship between the selected economic variables and their impact on real GDP in Algeria, both in the short and long term. Additionally, there is a positive effect of both independent variables representing foreign direct investment and migrant remittances on real GDP. However, there is a negative impact of external loans on real GDP, which can be explained by the misallocation of these loans, with a significant portion directed towards non-productive sectors, negatively affecting the long-term economic growth in Algeria. Scientific novelty. The primary contribution of this study is its comprehensive elucidation of all major forms of foreign capital flows to Algeria and their impact on the Algerian economy, including FDI, foreign aid, external loans, and remittances. This is important because different types of foreign capital flows have different effects on the Algerian economy. In addition, the evolution of foreign capital flows to Algeria over a long period of time, from 1990 to 2021, is studied. This made it possible to identify trends and patterns in foreign capital flows that may not be apparent in short-term studies. Practical value. The results of this study can help policymakers to design policies that maximize the benefits of foreign capital flows while minimizing the risks. And Foreign capital flows can play an important role in helping Algeria to address these challenges and achieve its economic development goals.

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks’ asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers’ financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks’ asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability.

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with simultaneity issues. To circumvent these problems, this paper defines their sum as "total effects", develops a time-varying coefficients methodology for their estimation without simultaneity bias, and applies these techniques to estimate the total effects of commercial bank credit per-capita on real GDP per-capita in Mauritius. An innovation is the introduction of extraneous variables that act as "coefficient drivers" chosen on the basis of best predictive performance, as measured by the smallest value of Theil's U-statistic we were able to locate in the estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health is one of the most crucial values of humanity. It is also a prerequisite for economic development and prosperity. Because of its complex structure, the healthcare sector is one of the areas where corruption is most prevalent at the global level. Research shows that corruption harms healthcare expenditures and services. This study used autoregressive distributed delay (ARDL) and dynamic error correction model (ECM) to analyze data from the World Bank, PRS/ICRG, and IMF from 1984 to 2019. The findings show that corruption negatively affected health expenditures and services in Turkey in the long and short run. There is a negative relationship between real GDP growth and health expenditures in the long run. In addition, it was determined that there is a positive relationship between CO2 emissions and health expenditures in the short term. In our study, some observe that there is a negative relationship between inflation and health expenditures in the short run, with a lagged value. To increase the quality of health services and expenditures in Turkey, effective health policies should be implemented and the fight against corruption should be given importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Cankiri Karatekin University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Climate change has been a concern in the public sphere throughout the decades. Also, a constant change in climate as a result of geologic history is posing a global problem. Many earlier studies have focused on various factors; however, this study intends to contribute distinctly; therefore, we select 22 countries among the top 30 forested countries in the world declared by CEO-WORLD in 2020. The study explores the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural value-added, agricultural land, forest area, and real GDP with CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2019. For analysis, we account for heterogeneity in the cross sections by developing a novel panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model in order to capture within-group variations, which is the panel data form of the Shin et al. (2014) model. The Pesaran 2007, CADF and CIPS panel unit root testing results indicate that the investigated variables are stationary at their first differences. The empirical finding shows positive and negative shocks in electricity consumption and agricultural land have a favourable and statistically significant long-term effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shocks in agricultural value-added and forest areas have a significant adverse influence on environmental degradation, while negative shocks have a substantial long-term positive effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shock in real GDP is insignificant, whereas negative shock shows adverse and substantial long-term impacts on CO2 emissions. This research's contributions will help policymakers evaluate energy needs and implement clean energy; combating deforestation will help reduce CO2 emissions and improve the quality of the environment and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to analyze the performance indicators of some macroeconomic variables in Yemen as a standard analytical study for the period (2011 - 2019), where the study used the descriptive approach and standard analysis through the use of the E-Views program. The brutal aggression by the Saudi-Emirati-American coalition on Yemen since March 26 / 2015 and until now, where the study showed many results, the most prominent of which is that the Yemeni economy was suffering from fragility in its economic structure due to poor management and the spread of corruption and its diversity in many forms The study showed that the multiplicity of crises and regional and local wars, starting with the Gulf War, then the war of consolidation of unity, then the six wars in Saada, and the events of the Arab Spring in the year 2011 had a negative impact on the Yemeni economy, as shown by the indicators of economic variables such as the exchange rate, the trade balance deficit and the general budget deficit. The state that it was in decline because of the war and the siege. The result of the standard analysis showed that the inflation rate had a negative impact on real GDP and was statistically and morally significant. Whenever the inflation rate increased by 1%, this led to a decrease in real GDP by 265272.663101 riyals. The study also presented some proposed policies to improve the performance of macroeconomic variables. The study recommended the importance of economic and political stability in Yemen in order to improve the performance of macroeconomic indicators and the need to strive hard towards ending the division in the central monetary institutions, as this division directly serves the politics of the countries of aggression and does not have the slightest benefit on the Yemeni economy, whether in the governorates under the control of the countries of aggression Or the northern provinces liberated from it. And work to improve the means of revenue collection while rationing expenditures in line with the deteriorating economic situation imposed by the countries of aggression through the unjust siege on our country by land, sea and air, in light of Arab and international silence on these barbaric practices. By supporting and encouraging agricultural production, especially those governorates that have a comparative advantage in the agricultural production achieved in the governorates of Al-Jawf, Al-Hodeidah, Hadramout and others to reach selfsufficiency in wheat from this strategic commodity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to show an econometric calibration through a model of simultaneous equations, using a sample made up of 213 monthly observations for the equations of: real GDP, and Credit from the Financial System in the Private Sector; between the periods of September 2003 and June 2021; that allows us to highlight the codependency of the variables mentioned above, through the use of other variables such as: monetary policy reference rate, liquidity of the financial system, CPI for food and energy, market capitalization, placement of corporate bonds, exports of copper and privatization of the operations of the Central Government. The econometric results show that there are consistent estimators for the first equation (of real GDP) at 95% confidence, taking into account the level of significance of the possible autocorrelation of the errors thanks to the applied tests. However, it does not turn out to be the same case for the second equation (related to credit), since these tests reveal the existence of a positive serial correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the impact of the stock market on the economic growth. The aim of the study is to determine the degree of impact of the Russian stock market on gross domestic product, as well as to analyze the significance of various financial instruments in this process. The study suggests three hypotheses: 1) the dynamics of changes in the stock market as a whole has an impact on GDP growth; 2) the growth of the stock market has a positive impact on the change in GDP; 3) the stock market affects the GDP growth more, than that of corporate bonds. To test these hypotheses, the work employs methods of economic and mathematical modeling and building a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors used the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and Finam Investment Holding for the period from January 2000 to July 2019. As a result, they proved that not only traditional macroeconomic and production factors affect the country’s GDP growth, but also the positive dynamics of the stock market. The paper revealed that the impact of the growth of stock indices and corporate bonds on the change in gross domestic product would be different. At the same time, a different degree of impact of the stock market on gross domestic product over time. The authors concluded that ensuring the growth of stock indices is a condition to achieve stable growth in Russia’s GDP. Most of all, the GDP growth depends on the growth of the largest liquid companies trading in the Russian stock market.

Energy consumption and economic growth play an important role in the global policy debate among policymakers around the world. This is the first study to investigate the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption at the state level for the U.S. from 2000 to 2016. As opposed to country-level studies, a focus on states within a country allows for comparisons across more homogeneous entities. The four known hypotheses are tested: growth, conservative, feedback, and neutral, differentiating between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. In order to address endogeneity, two strategies are developed: (1) a static analysis for 2016 where key policy covariates are gradually added to the model, and (2) a dynamic analysis using different generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators. The model is augmented using socioeconomic, regulatory and climatic variables, which allows for the evaluation of policies while facilitating a transition to renewable energy use. Overall, the results show that total energy consumption and non-renewable energy consumption support the feedback hypothesis. Results for renewable energy, industrial energy, and residential energy consumption show more support for the growth hypothesis. These results have policy implications in terms of optimizing decisions and investments to efficiently improve economic growth while reducing energy consumption. • This study explores the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. • Static and dynamic models are run for the years 2000–2016 for the U.S. states. • Renewable, nonrenewable, industrial, and residential energy are analyzed separately. • Total and non-renewable energy consumption support the feedback hypothesis. • Renewable energy consumption supports the growth hypothesis at the state level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has been facing the problem of energy crisis since 2007 and it has adversely affected the productivity and growth of the economy. To overcome this problem, under CPEC, 21 energy projects have been started in four provinces of Pakistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). This study tries to access the impact of the CPEC energy project located in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir referred to as the 720MW Karot hydropower project on the economy of Pakistan using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Based on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2010-2011 and) Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, this study simulates the impact of Karot hydropower project on some of the macroeconomic variables. The simulated results reveal that real GDP and total exports to other countries increase owing to the investment in hydropower projects as well as an increase in the supply of electricity. Moreover, investment in the Karot hydropower project also increases the growth of the interlinked sectors such as manufacturing sector, transport, and communication, agriculture and services sector respectively. This study also observes that the real prices of factor input also increase which would have a direct impact on wellbeing of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to quantify the relation between real GDP, CO2 emissions, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, tourism development and labor force for France and Germany as these two countries are pioneer countries pushing Paris agreement within and outside the European Union. The time spans have been used for the period of 1995–2015 according to data availability. In the presence of cross-sectional dependency, several first and second-generation unit root tests confirm the unit root problem while Pedroni and Westernlund confirm the cointegration. Results reveal an inverted U-shape relation between CO2 emissions and real GDP in long run confirming the validity of environmental Kuznets curve for the group of France and Germany. Results declare that renewable energy significantly reduces carbon emissions while nonrenewable energy consumption adds to carbon emissions. Tourism sector was found helpful in carbon reduction that appeals to attract more tourists for the development of sustainable tourism industry by taking energy conservation and emissions reduction in relevant industries in the full consideration. • This paper explores the determinants of carbon emissions for France and Germany. • An inverted U-shape relation was found between carbon emissions and real GDP in long run. • Results reveal renewable energy helps in carbon emissions reduction. • Nonrenewable energy consumption was adding in CO2 emissions. • Tourism sector was found supportive in carbon reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the dynamic relations between economic activity, tourism expenditures, and real exchange rate in 9 most visited OECD countries using annual panel data for 2005-2019. To examine the dynamic relations, we first carried out the panel unit root tests to determine the degree of the integration of the variables. And then, using the Westerlund error-correction-based panel cointegration test, we found evidence of the existence of long-run relationships among variables. Therefore, we estimated a panel VECM model to obtain evidence of the causal relationship between the variables. According to the major finding of the studies, there is unidirectional causality from the real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures to real GDP. Also, real exchange rate granger causes tourism expenditures in the short run. Test results also provide evidence that both real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures granger cause to real GDP in the long run. However, there is no evidence of long-run granger causality when real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures are dependent variables. The results of the study imply that to create sustainable growth in the sample countries, they should increase the tourism sector's contribution to GDP, and the countries also should maintain their external competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary and financial crisis have different effects on different economies of the world, which in addition to economic factors of countries, depends on the type of their interlinkage in a global economy. Regarding to the importance of U.S. monetary policy in international trade, it is necessary to study the effect of monetary policy shocks of this country on gross domestic product of major oil-exporting countries for determining macroeconomic policies and forecasts in a global and dynamic framework. In this paper we examine the impact of U.S. monetary policy on GDP of major oil-exporting countries in the period of 1974-2017 using GVAR approach. The results indicate that the effect of U.S. Monetary shocks on GDP of these countries is different in short-term and long-term.