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Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from −2.5 to 5.3 % decade−1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2σ statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

The combined record of total and profile ozone measurements from the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 series of instruments, known as the SBUV Merged Ozone Data (MOD) product, constitutes the longest satellite-based ozone time series from a single instrument type and as such plays a key role in ozone trend analyses.Following the approach documented in Frith et al. (2014) to analyze the merging uncertainties in the MOD total ozone record, we use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the potential for uncertainties in the calibration and drift of individual instruments in the profile ozone merged data set. We focus our discussion on the trends and associated merging uncertainty since 2001 in an effort to verify the start of ozone recovery as predicted by chemistry climate models. We find that merging uncertainty dominates the overall estimated uncertainty when considering only the 15 years of data since 2001. We derive trends versus pressure level for the MOD data set that are positive in the upper stratosphere as expected for ozone recovery. These trends appear to be significant when only statistical uncertainties are included but become not significant at the 2σ level when instrument uncertainties are accounted for. However, when we use the entire data set from 1979 through 2015 and fit to the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine) we find statistically significant fits throughout the upper stratosphere at all latitudes. This implies that the ozone profile data remain consistent with our expectation that chlorine is the dominant ozone forcing term.

Constituent evolution for 1990–2015 simulated using the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) is compared with three sources of observations: ground-based column measurements of HNO3 and HCl from two stations in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, ∼ 1990–ongoing), profiles of CH4 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS, 1992–2005), and profiles of N2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Earth Observing System satellite Aura (2005–ongoing). The differences between observed and simulated values are shown to be time dependent, with better agreement after ∼ 2000 compared with the prior decade. Furthermore, the differences between observed and simulated HNO3 and HCl columns are shown to be correlated with each other, suggesting that issues with the simulated transport and mixing cause the differences during the 1990s and that these issues are less important during the later years. Because the simulated fields are related to mean age in the lower stratosphere, we use these comparisons to evaluate the time dependence of mean age. The ongoing NDACC column observations provide critical information necessary to substantiate trends in mean age obtained using fields from MERRA-2 or any other reanalysis products.

Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine – EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be −5 to −10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to −5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties.

The Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) observing system consists of a series of instruments that have been measuring both total ozone and the ozone profile since 1970. SBUV measures the profile in the upper stratosphere with a resolution that is adequate to resolve most of the important features of that region. In the lower stratosphere the limited vertical resolution of the SBUV system means that there are components of the profile variability that SBUV cannot measure. The smoothing error, as defined in the optimal estimation retrieval method, describes the components of the profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot measure. In this paper we provide a simple visual interpretation of the SBUV smoothing error by comparing SBUV ozone anomalies in the lower tropical stratosphere associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to anomalies obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). We describe a methodology for estimating the SBUV smoothing error for monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles. We construct covariance matrices that describe the statistics of the inter-annual ozone variability using a 6 yr record of Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. We find that the smoothing error is of the order of 1% between 10 and 1 hPa, increasing up to 15–20% in the troposphere and up to 5% in the mesosphere. The smoothing error for total ozone columns is small, mostly less than 0.5%. We demonstrate that by merging the partial ozone columns from several layers in the lower stratosphere/troposphere into one thick layer, we can minimize the smoothing error. We recommend using the following layer combinations to reduce the smoothing error to about 1%: surface to 25 hPa (16 hPa) outside (inside) of the narrow equatorial zone 20° S–20° N.

The 11-yr solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOSCCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3–6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units F10.7 – 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOSCCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. This is important in that it means that chemistry-transport models should simulate the solar cycle in ozone well, while general circulation models without coupled chemistry will underestimate the temperature response to the solar cycle significantly in the middle atmosphere. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

The long-term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2-D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850–2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1960–2100 to illustrate that the 2-D model captures the basic processes responsible for long-term stratospheric change. The ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O impact ozone via several mechanisms. ODS and N2O loading decrease stratospheric ozone via the increases in atmospheric halogen and odd nitrogen species, respectively. CO2 loading impacts ozone by: (1) cooling the stratosphere which increases ozone via the reduction in the ozone chemical loss rates, and (2) accelerating the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) which redistributes ozone in the lower stratosphere. The net result of CO2 loading is an increase in global ozone in the total column and upper stratosphere. CH4 loading impacts ozone by: (1) increasing atmospheric H2O and the odd hydrogen species which decreases ozone via the enhanced HOx-ozone loss rates; (2) increasing the H2O cooling of the middle atmosphere which reduces the ozone chemical loss rates, partially offsetting the enhanced HOx-ozone loss; (3) converting active to reservoir chlorine via the reaction CH4+Cl→HCl+CH3 which leads to more ozone; and (4) increasing the NOx-ozone production in the troposphere. The net result of CH4 loading is an ozone decrease above 40–45 km, and an increase below 40–45 km and in the total column. The 2-D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that total column and upper stratospheric global ozone reach broad maxima during the 1920s–1930s. This precedes the significant ozone depletion during ~1960–2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, BDC, and age of air during 1850–2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the global average age of air above 22 km to decrease by ~1 yr from 1860–2100. The photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11–13 % during 1960–2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes (

Recent in situ and satellite measurements suggest a contribution of ~5 pptv to stratospheric inorganic bromine from short-lived bromocarbons. We conduct a modeling study of the two most important short-lived bromocarbons, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to account for this missing stratospheric bromine. We derive a "top-down" emission estimate of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 using airborne measurements in the Pacific and North American troposphere and lower stratosphere obtained during previous NASA aircraft campaigns. Our emission estimate suggests that to reproduce the observed concentrations in the free troposphere, a global oceanic emission of 425 Gg Br yr−1 for CHBr3 and 57 Gg Br yr−1 for CH2Br2 is needed, with 60% of emissions from open ocean and 40% from coastal regions. Although our simple emission scheme assumes no seasonal variations, the model reproduces the observed seasonal variations of the short-lived bromocarbons with high concentrations in winter and low concentrations in summer. This indicates that the seasonality of short-lived bromocarbons is largely due to seasonality in their chemical loss and transport. The inclusion of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 contributes ~5 pptv bromine throughout the stratosphere. Both the source gases and inorganic bromine produced from source gas degradation (BryVSLS) in the troposphere are transported into the stratosphere, and are equally important. Inorganic bromine accounts for half (2.5 pptv) of the bromine from the inclusion of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 near the tropical tropopause and its contribution rapidly increases to ~100% as altitude increases. More than 85% of the wet scavenging of BryVSLS occurs in large-scale precipitation below 500 hPa. Our sensitivity study with wet scavenging in convective updrafts switched off suggests that BryVSLS in the stratosphere is not sensitive to convection. Convective scavenging only accounts for ~0.2 pptv (4%) difference in inorganic bromine delivered to the stratosphere.

The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.

We used the seasonality of a combination of atmospheric trace gases and idealized tracers to examine stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and its influence on tropospheric composition in the Arctic. Maximum stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of CFCs and O3 occurs in April as driven by the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) occurs predominantly between 40° N to 80° N with stratospheric influx in the mid-latitudes (30–70° N) accounting for 67–81% of the air of stratospheric origin in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Transport from the lower stratosphere to the lower troposphere (LT) takes three months on average, one month to cross the tropopause, the second month to travel from the upper troposphere (UT) to the middle troposphere (MT), and the third month to reach the LT. During downward transport, the seasonality of a trace gas can be greatly impacted by wet removal and chemistry. A comparison of idealized tracers with varying lifetimes suggests that when initialized with the same concentrations and seasonal cycles at the tropopause, trace gases that have shorter lifetimes display lower concentrations, smaller amplitudes, and earlier seasonal maxima during transport to the LT. STE contributes to O3 in the Arctic troposphere directly from the transport of O3 and indirectly from the transport of NOy. Direct transport of O3 from the stratosphere accounts for 78% of O3 in the Arctic UT with maximum contributions occurring from March to May. The stratospheric contribution decreases significantly in the MT/LT (20–25% of total O3) and shows a very weak March–April maximum. Our NOx budget analysis in the Arctic UT shows that during spring and summer, the stratospheric injection of NOy-rich air increases NOx concentrations above the 20 pptv threshold level, thereby shifting the Arctic UT from a regime of net photochemical ozone loss to one of net production with rates as high as +16 ppbv/month.

Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

We have developed a merged ozone data set (MOD) for the period October 1978 through June 2006 combining total ozone measurements (Version 8 retrieval) from the TOMS (Nimbus 7, Earth Probe) and SBUV/SBUV2 (Nimbus 7, NOAA 9/11/16) series of satellite instruments. We use the MOD data set to search for evidence of ozone recovery in response to the observed leveling off of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. A crucial step in any time series analysis is the evaluation of uncertainties. In addition to the standard statistical time series uncertainties, we evaluate the possible instrument drift uncertainty for the MOD data set. We combine these two sources of uncertainty and apply them to a cumulative sum of residuals (CUSUM) analysis for trend slow-down. For the extra-polar mean between 60° S and 60° N, the apparent slow-down in trend is found to be clearly significant if instrument uncertainties are ignored. When instrument uncertainties are added, the slow-down becomes marginally significant at the 2σ level. For the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere (30° to 60° N) the trend slow-down is highly significant at the 2σ level, while in the southern hemisphere the trend slow-down has yet to meet the 2σ significance criterion. The rate of change of chlorine/bromine compounds is similar in both hemispheres, and we expect the ozone response to be similar in both hemispheres as well. The asymmetry in the trend slow-down between hemispheres likely reflects the influence of dynamical variability, and thus a clearly statistically significant response of total ozone to the leveling off of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere is not yet indicated.

Understanding the impact of atmospheric dynamical variability on observed changes in stratospheric O3 is a key to understanding how O3 will change with future climate dynamics and trace gas abundances. In this paper we examine the linkage between interannual variability in total column O3 at northern high latitudes in March and lower-to-mid stratospheric vortex O3 in the prior November. We find that these two quantities are significantly correlated in the years available from TOMS, SBUV, and POAM data (1978-2004). Additionally, we find that the increase in March O3 variability from the 1980s to years post-1990 is also seen in the November vortex O3, i.e., interannual variability in both quantities is much larger in the later years. The cause of this correlation is not clear, however. Interannual variations in March total O3 are known to correspond closely with variations in winter stratospheric wave driving consistent with the effects of varying residual circulation, temperature, and chemical loss. Variation in November vortex O3 may also depend on dynamical wave activity, but the dynamics in fall are less variable than in winter and spring. We do not find significant correlations of dynamic indicators for November such as temperature, heat flux, or polar average total O3 with the November vortex O3, nor with dynamical indicators later in winter and spring that might lead to a connection to March. We discuss several potential hypotheses for the observed correlation but do not find strong evidence for any considered mechanism. We present the observations as a phenomenon whose understanding may improve our ability to predict the dependence of O3 on changing dynamics and chemistry.

This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU) change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum), from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.