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Abstract Since 2007, the National Academy for Sciences Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) has recommended Earth Science research and investment priorities every 10 years. The Decadal Survey balances the continuation of essential climate variable time series against unmet measurement needs and new Earth Observations made possible by technological breakthroughs. The next survey (2027–2028, DS28) will be framed by a rapidly changing world, and it will be critical to anticipate the observational needs of the 2030s–2040s, a world increasingly dominated by climate extremes and a rapidly changing Earth system. Here, we highlight some of the changes that factor into a framework for the DS28.

Terrestrial carbon cycle models are routinely used to determine the response of the land carbon sink under expected future climate change, yet these predictions remain highly uncertain. Increasing the realism of processes in these models may help with predictive skill, but any such addition should be confronted with observations and evaluated in the context of the aggregate behavior of the carbon cycle. Here, two formulations for leaf area index (LAI) phenology are coupled to the same terrestrial biosphere model: one is climate agnostic, and the other incorporates direct environmental controls on both timing and growth. Each model is calibrated simultaneously to observations of LAI, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and biomass using the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and validated against withheld data, including eddy covariance estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) across six ecosystems from the tropics to high latitudes. Both model formulations show similar predictive skill for LAI and NEE. However, with the addition of direct environmental controls on LAI, the integrated model explains 22 % more variability in GPP and Re and reduces biases in these fluxes by 58 % and 77 %, respectively, while also predicting more realistic annual litterfall rates due to changes in carbon allocation and turnover. We extend this analysis to evaluate the inferred climate sensitivity of LAI and NEE with the new model and show that the added complexity shifts the sign, magnitude, and seasonality of NEE sensitivity to precipitation and temperature. This highlights the benefit of process complexity when inferring underlying processes from Earth observations and representing the climate response of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Abstract Earth system models (ESMs) typically simplify the representation of land surface spectral albedo to two values, which correspond to the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400–700 nm) and the near infrared (NIR, 700–2,500 nm) spectral bands. However, the availability of hyperspectral observations now allows for a more direct retrieval of ecological parameters and reduction of uncertainty in surface reflectance. To investigate sensitivity and quantify biases of incorporating hyperspectral albedo information into ESMs, we examine how shortwave soil albedo affects surface radiative forcing and simulations of the carbon and water cycles. Results reveal that the use of two broadband values to represent soil albedo can introduce systematic radiative‐forcing differences compared to a hyperspectral representation. Specifically, we estimate soil albedo biases of ±0.2 over desert areas, which can result in spectrally integrated radiative forcing divergences of up to 30 W m−2, primarily due to discrepancies in the blue (404–504 nm) and far‐red (702–747 nm) regions. Furthermore, coupled land‐atmosphere simulations indicate a significant difference in net solar flux at the top of the atmosphere (>3.3 W m−2), which can impact global energy fluxes, rainfall, temperature, and photosynthesis. Finally, simulations show that considering the hyperspectrally resolved soil reflectance leads to increased maximum daily temperatures under current and future CO2 concentrations.

At the leaf level, stomata control the exchange of water and carbon across the air–leaf interface. Stomatal conductance is typically modeled empirically, based on environmental conditions at the leaf surface. Recently developed stomatal optimization models show great skills at predicting carbon and water fluxes at both the leaf and tree levels. However, how well the optimization models perform at larger scales has not been extensively evaluated. Furthermore, stomatal models are often used with simple single-leaf representations of canopy radiative transfer (RT), such as big-leaf models. Nevertheless, the single-leaf canopy RT schemes do not have the capability to model optical properties of the leaves nor the entire canopy. As a result, they are unable to directly link canopy optical properties with light distribution within the canopy to remote sensing data observed from afar. Here, we incorporated one optimization-based and two empirical stomatal models with a comprehensive RT model in the land component of a new Earth system model within CliMA, the Climate Modelling Alliance. The model allowed us to simultaneously simulate carbon and water fluxes as well as leaf and canopy reflectance and fluorescence spectra. We tested our model by comparing our modeled carbon and water fluxes and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to two flux tower observations (a gymnosperm forest and an angiosperm forest) and satellite SIF retrievals, respectively. All three stomatal models quantitatively predicted the carbon and water fluxes for both forests. The optimization model, in particular, showed increased skill in predicting the water flux given the lower error (ca. 14.2 % and 21.8 % improvement for the gymnosperm and angiosperm forests, respectively) and better 1:1 comparison (slope increases from ca. 0.34 to 0.91 for the gymnosperm forest and from ca. 0.38 to 0.62 for the angiosperm forest). Our model also predicted the SIF yield, quantitatively reproducing seasonal cycles for both forests. We found that using stomatal optimization with a comprehensive RT model showed high accuracy in simulating land surface processes. The ever-increasing number of regional and global datasets of terrestrial plants, such as leaf area index and chlorophyll contents, will help parameterize the land model and improve future Earth system modeling in general.

In vegetation canopies with complex architectures, diffuse solar radiation can enhance carbon assimilation through photosynthesis because isotropic light is able to reach deeper layers of the canopy. Although this effect has been studied in the past decade, the mechanisms and impacts of this enhancement over South America remain poorly understood. Over the Amazon deforestation arch large amounts of aerosols are released into the atmosphere due to biomass burning, which provides an ideal scenario for further investigation of this phenomenon in the presence of canopies with complex architecture. In this paper, the relation of aerosol optical depth and surface fluxes of mass and energy are evaluated over three study sites with artificial neural networks and radiative transfer modeling. Results indicate a significant effect of the aerosol on the flux of carbon dioxide between the vegetation and the atmosphere, as well as on energy exchange, including that surface fluxes are sensitive to second-order radiative impacts of aerosols on temperature, humidity, and friction velocity. CO2 exchanges increased in the presence of aerosol in up to 55 % in sites with complex canopy architecture. A decrease of approximately 12 % was observed for a site with shorter vegetation. Energy fluxes were negatively impacted by aerosols over all study sites.